Tournament: Alpharetta Tresure Hunt | Round: 4 | Opponent: Pace MM | Judge: Amy Feinberg
1AC – Instability
Castro’s reforms will inevitably fail – that triggers economic and social collapse
Morales 13 (Ermilio, He holds a B.S. in Computer Science from the José Antonio Echevarría Higher Polytechnic Institute in Havana, and a Masters in Marketing from the University of Havana. He also earned an MBA from the Higher School of Marketing in Madrid, Spain. As a high-ranking professional in Cuba, he worked for more than 10 years in marketing research, and authored or co-authored more than 50 different government marketing studies of products and services in the health-care field, tourism, cell phones, retailing, medical equipment, tourism, and investment strategies. He provided technical service for the Cuban government in a variety of binational projects in South Africa, Argentina and Canada, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?” August 23rd, 2013, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_contentandview=articleandid=3483Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopiaandcatid=473Aeconomyandlang=en)//moxley
The reforms that began under Raúl Castro's government, despite having the greatest reach since
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as architects, engineers and programmers-- are not included in these reforms.
Only an immediate and complete rollback of the embargo can ensure successful reform and prevent Cuban collapse
Timothy Ashby, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 3/29/13
(PRESERVING STABILITY IN CUBA AFTER NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES – THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADING WITH STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)
Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and
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-way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.

Plan key to US-Cuban relations which preserve Caribbean stability – coop enables effective regional security
Tierney 9 (John F. – Chairman, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, “Hearing on "National Security Implications of U.S. Policy toward Cuba"”, 4/29, http://tierney.house.gov/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=588andItemid=500141)
Current U.S. policy toward Cuba is anachronistic and unsustainable - and it
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in the western Caribbean and disrupt ongoing operations of South American cocaine mafias.

Caribbean stability solves for the root cause of conflict and inequality - checks terrorism
E.U. 06 EU – European Union legislation, 2/3/06; “An EU-Caribbean Partnership for Growth, Stability, and Development”; http://ec.europa.eu/development/icenter/repository/communication_86_2006_en.pdf
accesssed 9/24/13
NL
Security, stability and conflict prevention are essential prerequisites for sustainable development. Security has
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the dialogue and interaction among members, acting as a peer pressure mechanism.
Caribbean instability leads to terrorism and distracts the US from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucus, and North Korea
Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
North Korean threats go nuclear
Kline 13—Comment Editor and Writer @ National Post Jesse Kline (Master of Journalism degree from the University of British Columbia), “Deterrence is the best way to prevent war with North Korea,” National Post, April 9, 2013, pg. http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/09/jesse-kline-deterrence-is-the-best-way-to-prevent-war-with-north-korea/

Another day, another provocation from North Korea. Last week the reclusive regime threatened
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might of the U.S. military bearing down on North Korea.
Ever since the Korean War ended in 1953, the Kim regime has been bringing the peninsula to the brink and then backing off once the international community agrees to concessions. This is especially true any time South Korea elects a new president or conducts war games with the United States—two events that have taken place in recent weeks.
Appeasement seemed like a viable option until it became apparent that the North was developing weapons of mass destruction. As it turned out, constantly giving in to the North Koreans failed to stop them from developing a nuclear weapon and only encouraged the regime to continue playing games with the international community.
The North keeps playing these game because it works. By ratcheting up the rhetoric
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pressuring the international community into giving aid to the cash-strapped country.
Kim Jong-Un is moving the world to the brink of war only because past experience has shown that he'll get something out of it. The truth is that there is very little chance of North Korea deliberately starting a conflict, as the regime is surely aware that it would be crushed by the American army in a head-to-head conflict.
The U.S. has put South Korea under its nuclear umbrella—i
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move by edgy soldiers guarding the demilitarized zone could ignite the tinder box.
Yet there is no reason to believe that standard deterrence mechanisms will not work in
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appear crazy, but there's no indication that he has a death wish.
However, as former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger once said, "Deterrence requires a combination of power, the will to use it, and the assessment of these by the potential aggressor. Moreover, deterrence is the product of those factors and not the sum. If any one of them is zero, deterrence fails."
The North Koreans are betting that the American publicare in no mood for war,
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the Pentagon will be delaying a planned missile test sends the opposite signal.
In order for deterrence to work, Washington has to be abundantly clear that any act of war will provoke a swift, and deadly, American response. And that any nuclear weapon—detonated anywhere in the world—using North Korean technology will result in Washington turning Pyongyang into a wasteland.
So long as Kim Jong-Un and his cronies believe there is a real and credible threat from the United States, there is very little to worry about. Cancelling planned displays of American firepower and not being explicit about U.S. support for countries such as South Korea and Japan, will only embolden North Korea—making the powder keg more likely to blow.
African conflicts cause great power war
Glick 7 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56andcategoryid=56andsubcategoryid=90andnewsid=11568)
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,
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waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.
Caucasus conflict goes nuclear
Joshua Kucera, 12/28/2011. Freelance journalist specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. “Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?” EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64765.
And in Komsomolskaya Pravda, Mikhail Barabanov of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and Moscow Defense Brief  discusses a recent claim by Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov that the chance of Russia getting involved in a war have recently increased. (Translation by Johnson's Russia List):
Major Western countries and first and foremost the United States might intervene in conflicts on
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Armed Forces. Things might escalate into a nuclear exchange, you know.
Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions
Bryan 1 (Anthony T., Director of the Caribbean Program – North/South Center, and Stephen E. Flynn, Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation”, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the
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else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
Bioterrorism results in extinction
Sandberg et al 8 – Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. PhD in computation neuroscience, Stockholm—AND—Jason G. Matheny—PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins. special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh—AND—Milan M. ?irkovi?—senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade. Assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad. (Anders, How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?, 9 September 2008, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction)
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones.
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may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.

LNG tanker explosions cause catastrophic damage – outweighs nuclear war
Lovin 1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President – National Capitalism and Co-Founder – Rocky Mountain Institute, “Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security”,  http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto
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of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

Thus the plan - The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement toward the Republic of Cuba.
1AC – Economy
Lack of investment in capital goods makes collapse inevitable
Nash-Hoff 10/24 Michelle, Founder and President of ElectroFab Sales, a sales agency specializing in helping manufacturers select the right processes for their products, 2013, “Decline in Capital Investment Is Threat to American Innovation,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michele-nashhoff/decline-in-capital-invest_b_4143596.html
In early October, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation released a report titled "
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capital investment over the last decade is a key threat to economic growth.
The authors state, "Private capital investment is the primary means through which innovation, the key driver of economic growth, diffuses throughout the economy." Business investment in equipment, software and structures grew by only 0.5 percent from 2000 and 2011 compared to an average of 2.7 percent between 1980 and 1989 and 5.2 percent per year between 1990 and 1999.
The authors make a strong case about why capital investment matters in developed, knowledge
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by companies that is capital investment that spreads the innovation throughout the economy.
"Capital investment acts as a diffuser of innovation because innovation is embedded in new investment" Industrial equipment such as engines, metalworking machinery and materials handling equipment; transportation equipment like trucks and aircraft; construction machinery, agricultural or mining equipment are now "infused with highly advanced technologies, and each new generation is better than the last."
After a comparison of neoclassical economies and neo-Keynesian economies with innovation economies such
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swiftly spread through the economy, bestowing their economic benefits upon their users.
The authors show that a second reason why capital investment matters is that it has
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even IPES stagnated in the decade of the 2000s. The authors conclude:
This stagnation means that business investment rates are actually falling relative to the size of
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a fall which, given investment's continued decline, will also undoubtedly continue.
A decline in value of manufacturing structures in the United States is only a symptom, not a driver, of a decline in the international competitiveness of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The decline of "investment equipment and software investment is more of a driver of competitiveness, and thus its decline is far more ominous."
Total business investment in equipment and software grew in the 1980s, boomed in the 1990s, and then stagnated in the 2000s. Between 1980 and 1991, equipment and software investment increased by 37 percent compared to just 2 percent between 2000 and 2011. This means that investment in equipment and software is falling relative to the size of the economy just like total investment.
The picture looks even worse when the IPES assets are removed from total equipment assets, leaving only assets such as industrial machinery and transportation equipment. "Instead of merely stagnant growth, non-IPES investment has declined over eight percent since 2000."
The next section of the report compares investment in equipment and software by industry,
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of that made in the ramp up to the financial collapse of 2008."
Not only did business investment stagnate in the 2000s, but investment "is now much more concentrated in a few select domestic-serving services industries, and industries that once powered U.S. investment growth and global competitiveness are now falling behind," such as computers and chemical products.
The investment trends in the computer and electronic products industry are even worse than other manufacturing sectors: "a 36 percent decline in equipment and software investment since 2000."
The authors propose two possible reasons for the causes of investment stagnation: 1. Decline in the competiveness of U.S. traded-sector businesses on the global market that has been occurring, particularly over at least the past decade
2. "Short-termism" -- the obsession with the upcoming financial report
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United States. Thus, investment declines in one industry sector after another.
U.S. economy key to the global economy
Caploe ‘9
(David Caploe is CEO of the Singapore-incorporated American Centre for Applied Liberal Arts and Humanities in Asia., “Focus still on America to lead global recovery”, April 7, The Strait Times, lexis)

IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
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US - and it is going to have to be solved there too.
The plan solves – 3 reasons:
a. Resources – The embargo kills US access to resources like natural gas and oil
Grogg 06- Patricia Grogg; Cuban correspondent to IPS, studied Journalism in the University of Havana (“Cuba Embargo’s Boomerang Effect” IPS, October 2006, http://havanajournal.com/politics/entry/cuba-embargos-boomerang-effect/, accessed: 6/27/13, ML)
Washington’s embargo against Cuba also has an impact on the United States economy and prevents
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also signed a contract for four blocks in this deep water drilling area.
Resource wars lead to extinction
Lendman ‘7
(Stephen Lendman is a renowned author and Research Associate of the Center for Research on Globalization (CRG). The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) is an independent research and media organization based in Montreal. The CRG is involved in book publishing, support to humanitarian projects as well as educational outreach activities including the organization of public conferences and lectures. The Centre also acts as a think tank on crucial economic and geopolitical issues. Stephen has written extensively on war and peace, social justice in America and many other national and international issues. Stephen Lendman is a recipient of a 2008 Project Censored Award, University of California at Sonoma – “Resource Wars – Can We Survive Them?” – Global Research, June 06, 2007 – http://www.globalresearch.ca/resource-wars-can-we-survive-them/5892)

With the world’s energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports, and
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, or at least a big part of it, would have survived.

b. Trade – The embargo significantly decreases trade between Cuba and America
West-Duran 12 – Alan West-Duran, PhD, Director of the Latino/Latin American and Caribbean Studies Program at Northwestern University, (“Cuba”, Book published by Gale: Cengage Learning, 2012 (Publish Date), http://www.gale.cengage.com/pdf/samples/CubaSampleChapter.pdf, Accessed 7/02/13, AW)
President Barack Obama has said, “Our guiding¶ light . . . is
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hardship for Cuban¶ families, especially their loved ones on the island.
Extinction – Trade solves all conflict
Daniel Grisworld 12/28/5, director of the Cato Institute Center for Trade Policy Studies,”Peace on Earth? Try Free Trade among Men”
Buried beneath the daily stories about car bombs and insurgents is an underappreciated but comforting
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acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home.¶
c. Manufacturing – Lifting the embargo significantly boosts manufacturing
Ball 12 (chipsball, contributer to Hubpages, “Lift Trade Embargo Against Cuba… Create U.S. Jobs”, August 2012, http://hubpages.com/forum/topic/100613, Accessed: 7/4/13, EH)
The U.S. Economy needs a "jolt". Lifting the U.
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is whether or not the Obama Administration has the courage to pursue it.

Decline of US manufacturing triggers unchecked Chinese rise and South China Sea conflict
Mosher 6 Steven is the President of the Population Research Institute. “CHINESE INFLUENCE ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY THROUGH U.S. EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, MULTILATERAL ORGANIZATIONS AND CORPORATE AMERICA: HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND INVESTIGATIONS OF THE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,” Feb 14, http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/intlrel/hfa26076.000/hfa26076_0f.htm
The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
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desire to reduce U.S. influence and presence in the region.
Unchecked Chinese rise causes great power nuclear war
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to the United States that the PRC does
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a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances.
South China Sea conflict goes nuclear
Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?",  www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
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that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.
Economic decline causes war – studies prove
Royal ‘10
(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
Economic collapse causes Asian instability and war – high probability
Auslin 9 – resident scholar at AEI (Michael “Averting Disaster”, The Daily Standard, 2/6, http://www.aei.org/article/100044
As they deal with a collapsing world economy, policymakers in Washington and around the
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types of miscalculation and greed that have destroyed international systems in the past.

Asia war outweighs – draws in great powers and destroys international stability
White 8 – Hugh White 8, Professor of Strategic Studies at Australian National University and Visiting Fellow, the Lowy Institute, June 4, 2008, “'Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable' ,” online: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-thinkable-prof-hugh-white/
But while I agree that war in Asia is unlikely, it does seem to
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and their successors have done so much to study, understand and prevent.

1AC – Solvency
Only full removal of the embargo solves – partial or conditioned removal is worse than the status quo.
Gorrell 05 Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army War College Lieutenant Colonel Tim Gorrell, Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?, Strategy Research Project, 18 March 2005, U.S. Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074
RETAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA, BUT ENFORCE THEM IN VARYING DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL
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have to lose by attempting a bold shift in its policy toward Cuba?
Lifting of the embargo is inevitable – triggers your disads
Ediger 9/19/12 – (Don, “Cuba Post-Castro Future” Masters from the University of Southern California and a writer for Consortium News with background at the Sacramento Master Club, Consortium News is a peer-reviewed and edited News service with reviewers from the Associated Press and Newsweek, Available online @ http://consortiumnews.com/2012/09/19/cubas-post-castro-future/)
With Fidel Castro now 86 and his brother Raul at 81, big changes appear
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might also provide the Cuban government with an incentive to be less repressive.¶
Currently, the embargo won’t get removed until 2018
Rajo 3-2-13 (Carolos, “Analysis: Castro brothers' successor may inherit a very different Cuba”, March 2nd, 2013, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/02/17133513-analysis-castro-brothers-successor-may-inherit-a-very-different-cuba?lite)//moxley
The U.S. State Department reacted tepidly to Castro’s announcement and made clear
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For now, at least, it seems that won’t happen until 2018.

Independently, Latin America is structurally improving due to globalization
O’Neil 13 (Shannon O’Neil is senior fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), O’Neil has taught in the political science department at Columbia University. She is a frequent commentator on major television and radio programs, and her work has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica, Americas Quarterly, Política Exterior, Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times, among others, and she has testified before the U.S. Congress on U.S. policy toward Mexico, she was a justice, welfare, and economics fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She was also a Fulbright scholar in Mexico and Argentina. Prior to her academic work, Dr. O’Neil worked in the private sector as an equity analyst at Indosuez Capital Latin America and Credit Lyonnais Securities. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in international relations from Yale University, and a PhD in government from Harvard University, “Latin American Success Story”, June 16th, 2013, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/16/latin-america-s-secret-success-story.html)//moxley
Latin America rarely looms large on the global scene, overshadowed by Europe, the
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than to look toward its hemispheric neighbors, who have much to impart.
And, the embargo is an act of genocide – it disproportionately affects the Cuban population and is maintained only to destroy socialism
Malott 7 (Curry, From New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, NM
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Critical Education Policy Studies, v5 n1 May 2007 pg. 245)moxley
 The US has not been trying to influence the revolution but to
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whom have lived their entire lives under the embargo (Granma, 2005).
The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition – that’s key to American soft-power
Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
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guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.

Tournament: Barkley Forum | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dexter MS | Judge: Ryan Gorman
1AC – Barkley Forum

1AC – Plan Text
Plan: The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba. 

1AC – Multilateralism
US-driven economic globalization is in retreat -- revitalizing multilateralism is key to prevent fragmentation of the liberal order.
Stephens 10/10/13 (Philip Stephens, FT writer, "America’s economic retreat threatens China’s rise," Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/78621256-30d9-11e3-b991-00144feab7de.html#axzz2qhCAu2CY)
The most immediate worry for Beijing is that a protracted stalemate in Washington would send
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from the liberal order, would be the biggest loser from its demise.
Only the plan can solve-

1. Engaging Cuba is a prereq to engaging the rest of Latin America
   Perez 10  JD, Yale Law (David, “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)
   Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking long-
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   throughout Latin America, and would go a long way toward creating goodwill.

Latin American hemispheric diplomacy is key to multilat
Sabatini and Berger 12 Christopher and Ryan, Sabatini is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. Berger is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, “Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin America”  http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america/
Speaking in Santiago, Chile, in March of last year, President Obama called
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S. “backyard” that is outside broader, global strategic concerns.
2. Lifting the embargo is key to US image globally
Holmes 10 Michael G., master’s degree in Arts In Liberal Studies from Georgetown University, “A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The School of Continuing Studies and of The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts In Liberal Studies”
https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1
From an image stand point repealing the sanctions and removing the embargo is symbolic.
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the sanctions, the two benefits that stand out the most are trade and
fuel.
We will isolate 2 impacts
First – Only the plan creates a credible model for conflict resolution Dickerson 10 SERGIO M., serves as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA” http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf
At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba as a
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decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.

All four of those hotspots go nuclear
Bosco 06 David, senior editor at Foreign Policy Magazine, writer for the Los Angeles Times and the Pittsburg Post-Gazette, “Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III”http:www.post-gazette.com/pg/06211/709477-109.stm
The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the
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-long Cold War, what has the world learned about managing conflict?
Second is counterbalancing – Rising powers are challenging the international system- multilateralism is key to prevent conflict
Fujimoto 12 Kevin - Lt. Colonel, U.S. Army, article written for and peer reviewed by Strategic Studies 1/16/12, “Preserving U.S. National Security Interests Through a Liberal World Construct,” online: http://www.defencetalk.com/preserving-us-national-security-interests-through-a-liberal-world-construct-39593/
The emergence of peer competitors, not terrorism, presents the greatest long-term
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protect its interests later when we are no longer the world’s only superpower.
Specifically-multilat is key to prevent US-china war
Economist 10 The Economist, magazine specializing in economics, foreign relations, “The Dangers of a Rising China”,
http://www.economist.com/node/17629709
TOWARDS the end of 2003 and early in 2004 China's most senior leaders put aside
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. It is up to them to ensure that the 21st is different.

Managed US decline now is key to prevent US lashout while preserving influence
Quinn 11 Adam, PhD (LSE), International Relations, MA (Hons), first class, Philosophy and Politics, senior lecturer in International Politics Department of Political Science and International Studies at the University of Birmingham, “The art of declining politely: Obama’s prudent presidency and the waning of American power” http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/87_4quinn.pdf
Captain of a shrinking ship As noted in the opening passages of this article,
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seems it is fortunate enough to have a president who fits the bill.

Risk of US-china war is high and goes nuclear
Goldstein 13 Avery,  Professor of Global Politics and International Relations in the Political Science Department, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, and Associate Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. His research focuses on international relations, security studies, and Chinese politics, author for Foreign Affairs magazine, “China’s Real and Present Danger”  http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139651/avery-goldstein/chinas-real-and-present-danger
MORE DANGEROUS THAN THE COLD WAR? Uncertainty about what could lead either Beijing or
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, since it would be able to cope with Chinese retaliation in kind.

1AC – Ethanol
The plan is key to revive the Cuban sugar ethanol industry – only removal of the embargo solves and displaces US corn ethanol
Holmes, 10– B.A. from Georgetown, Master’s Thesis (Michael G., June 21, 2010, “Seizing the Moment”, https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1, pg. 74-78)NG
Creating a new market for U.S. goods and services creates a strong
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Cuba's technology sector and potentially increase the ease and volume of ethanol production.
Sugarcane exports are feasible and desired.
Squatriglia 8 – Writer for WIRED (Chuck, “With Fidel Gone, Will Cuba Become a Global Ethanol Player?”, WIRED, Feb 19, 2008, http://www.wired.com/cars/energy/news/2008/02/cuba_ethanol)||DK
Fidel Castro hates ethanol. He thinks it punishes the poor by driving up food
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Department says it won't lift the trade embargo on Cuba any time soon.

Scenario 1 is Food Prices
Corn ethanol is the strongest IL into food prices – prefer mathematical modeling
New England Complex Systems Institute, 11- research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions (“The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion”, NECSI, 9/21/11, http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_prices.pdf)//TL
Finally, we consider conversion of corn to ethanol. Only a small fraction of
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production. Price variation during that period must be due to other causes.

Specifically-US corn ethanol increases food prices and causes conflicts like Arab Spring
Sandoval, 2/7/13- Reporter for the Heritage Foundation citing Yaneer Bar-Yam, American physicist, systems scientist, and founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, which is a research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions. (Michael, “Ethanol Mandate Leads to Violence, Social Unrest”, Heritage.org, http://blog.heritage.org/2013/02/07/ethanol-mandate-leads-to-social-unrest/)//TL
The conversion of corn to ethanol has contributed to a doubling in global food prices
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redeemed by arguing that the bad impact might be a small bad impact.
Global food shortages risk extinction from starvation and war
Julian Cribb, Professor in Science Communication at the University of Technology Sydney, 2010 (Julian, principal of JCA, fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, “The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do to Avoid It”, pg 10)
The character of human conflict has also changed: since the early 1990s, more
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believe future food shortages are a far bigger world threat than global warming."
Scenario 2 is Warming
Increased corn production destroys wetlands and prairies – leads to warming
Specht ’13- Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012 (Jonathan, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States”, 36 UC Davis L. Rev. 185-188, April 24 2013, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf) CW
Increased corn production is degrading two environmentally significant habitats in the Great Plains, grasslands
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to clean as the grasslands and wetlands that once filtered contaminants disappear. 100
Warming is real and anthropogenic – carbon dioxide increase, polar ice records, melting glaciers, sea level rise
Prothero 12 Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, vol 17 no 2, EBSCO
Converging Lines of Evidence¶ How do we know that global warming is real and
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pinnacles, but the rest of these drowned cities would lie deep underwater.
Extinction – independently warming is another I/L to food prices
Sawin 12 Janet Sawin, Senior Director of the Energy and Climate Change Program at the WorldWatch Institute, Aug 2012, “Climate Change Poses Greater Security Threat than Terrorism
As early as 1988, scientists cautioned that human tinkering with the Earth's climate amounted
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migration across borders has frequently led to violent clashes over land and resources.
1AC – Solvency
Normal Trade Relations is vital – no trade occurs without it
French 09 – editor of and a frequent contributor to The Havana Note, has led more than two dozen research trips to Cuba (Anya, “Options for Engagement A Resource Guide for Reforming U.S. Policy toward Cuba” http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Cuba/USPolicy/options-for-engagement.pdf)
the path to “normal” trade relations If the United States were to lift
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years, as both countries would need to adopt statutory and regulatory changes.
Only full removal of the embargo solves – partial or conditioned removal is worse than the status quo.
Gorrell 05 Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army War College Lieutenant Colonel Tim Gorrell, Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?, Strategy Research Project, 18 March 2005, U.S. Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074
RETAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA, BUT ENFORCE THEM IN VARYING DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL
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have to lose by attempting a bold shift in its policy toward Cuba?
The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition
Koenig 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130) *GENDER MODIFIED*
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
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it onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
And, the embargo is an act of genocide – it disproportionately affects the Cuban population
Malott 7 (Curry, From New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, NM
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Critical Education Policy Studies, v5 n1 May 2007 pg. 245)moxley
 The US has not been trying to influence the revolution but to
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whom have lived their entire lives under the embargo (Granma, 2005).
No prior questions to the 1AC
Owen 02 (David, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium, Vol 31, No 3)
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘a
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the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Independently, Latin America is structurally improving due to globalization
O’Neil 6-16-13 (Shannon O’Neil is senior fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), O’Neil has taught in the political science department at Columbia University. She is a frequent commentator on major television and radio programs, and her work has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica, Americas Quarterly, Política Exterior, Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times, among others, and she has testified before the U.S. Congress on U.S. policy toward Mexico, she was a justice, welfare, and economics fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She was also a Fulbright scholar in Mexico and Argentina. Prior to her academic work, Dr. O’Neil worked in the private sector as an equity analyst at Indosuez Capital Latin America and Credit Lyonnais Securities. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in international relations from Yale University, and a PhD in government from Harvard University, “Latin American Success Story”, June 16th, 2013, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/16/latin-america-s-secret-success-story.html)//moxley
Latin America rarely looms large on the global scene, overshadowed by Europe, the
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than to look toward its hemispheric neighbors, who have much to impart.

Tournament: Chattahooche | Round: 2 | Opponent: Johns Creek NT | Judge: Kanetkar
1AC – Hooch

Contention 1 - Relations
Scenario #1 is Latin America
US-Cuban oil cooperation key to check existing US-Latin American tensions.
Benjamin-Alvarado ‘10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation,” a Brookings Publication – obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 3-4

The development of Cuba as an energy partner will not solve America’s energy problems.
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enhance the environment, conserve energy, and provide improved quality of life.”

Now a key time for US-Latin American ties. Permanent collapse coming.
Shifter ‘12
(Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,” April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

If the United States and Latin America do not make the effort now, the
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wellbeing. It is time to seize the moment and overhaul hemispheric relations.
Cuba is key to US-Latin American Relations. Specifically spills-over to global coop on nuclear material transfers.
Shifter ‘12
(Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,” April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Cuba, too, poses a significant challenge for relations between the United States and
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consultation and collaboration on a new, more effective approach to the problem.
The impact to terrorism is nuclear war and extinction. Global coop on material transfers is key.
Ayson’10
Robert – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington – “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, obtained via InformaWorld
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by
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, is further international cooperation on the control of existing fissile material holdings.
Scenario #2 is the Caribbean
Plan key to US-Cuban relations which preserve Caribbean stability – coop enables effective regional security
Tierney 9 (John F. – Chairman, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, “Hearing on "National Security Implications of U.S. Policy toward Cuba"”, 4/29, http://tierney.house.gov/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=588andItemid=500141)
Current U.S. policy toward Cuba is anachronistic and unsustainable - and it
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in the western Caribbean and disrupt ongoing operations of South American cocaine mafias.

Cuban instability from lacking US-Cuban relations leads to Caribbean instability. This distracts from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucasus, and North Korea. Also accesses Ayson 10.
Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions
Bryan 1 (Anthony T., Director of the Caribbean Program – North/South Center, and Stephen E. Flynn, Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation”, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the
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else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
LNG tanker explosions cause catastrophic damage – outweighs nuclear war
Lovin 1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President – National Capitalism and Co-Founder – Rocky Mountain Institute, “Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security”,  http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto
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of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
Bioterrorism results in extinction
Sandberg et al 8 – Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. PhD in computation neuroscience, Stockholm—AND—Jason G. Matheny—PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins. special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh—AND—Milan M. ?irkovi?—senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade. Assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad. (Anders, How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?, 9 September 2008, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction)
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones.
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may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.

African conflicts cause great power war
Glick 7 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56andcategoryid=56andsubcategoryid=90andnewsid=11568)
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,
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waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.
Caucasus conflict goes nuclear
Joshua Kucera, 12/28/2011. Freelance journalist specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. “Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?” EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64765.
And in Komsomolskaya Pravda, Mikhail Barabanov of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and Moscow Defense Brief  discusses a recent claim by Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov that the chance of Russia getting involved in a war have recently increased. (Translation by Johnson's Russia List):
Major Western countries and first and foremost the United States might intervene in conflicts on
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Armed Forces. Things might escalate into a nuclear exchange, you know.
North Korean threats go nuclear
Kline 13—Comment Editor and Writer @ National Post Jesse Kline (Master of Journalism degree from the University of British Columbia), “Deterrence is the best way to prevent war with North Korea,” National Post, April 9, 2013, pg. http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/09/jesse-kline-deterrence-is-the-best-way-to-prevent-war-with-north-korea/

Another day, another provocation from North Korea. Last week the reclusive regime threatened
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making the powder keg more likely to blow.
Contention 2 - Oil Spills
Cuban oil drilling inevitable. The embargo only locks-out US safety experts.
LaGesse ‘12
David LaGesse¶ reporter, with recent articles that have appeared in National Geographic, Money, and most frequently in U.S. News and World Report – National Geographic News – November 19, 2012 – internally quoting Jorge Piñon, a former president of Amoco Oil Latin America (now part of BP) and an expert on Cuba's energy sector who is now a research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin.– http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/11/121119-cuba-oil-quest/
But an energy-poor Cuba also has its risks. One of the chief
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a major find. But that doesn't mean Cuba will give up trying.

Embargo fails and stops pro-active approach to spills.
Helman ‘11
Christopher Helman – Forbes Staff: Southwest Bureau covering Houston, the US energy capital – Forbes – “U.S. Should Drop Cuba Embargo For Oil Exploration” – December 12th – http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/12/12/u-s-should-drop-cuba-embargo-for-oil-exploration/
In a few months Spanish oil company Repsol will start drilling for oil off the
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its people and scrounge for spare parts from the rest of the world.

Absent pro-active steps, accidents are inevitable. US experts key.
Bolstad ‘12
Erika Bolstad is a reporter who covers Washington for the Anchorage Daily News, the Idaho Statesman and McClatchy Newspapers. This evidence internally quotes Lee Hunt, the former president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors. Hunt, in this instance, is arguably not biased in favor of drilling, as he is speaking to safety and clean-up regimes and he is speaking before a liberal think-tank in favor of human rights – McClatchy Newspapers – May 10, 2012 – http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/05/10/148433/cuba-embargo-could-threaten-oil.html#.UaoUWpyADq0

The 50-year-old U.S. embargo of Cuba is getting
AND
in advance the kind of technologies that would be required," Reilly said.

Independently, hurricanes cause spills. Quick reaction also needed.
Stephens ‘11
et al, Sarah Stephens – Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas – “As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest,” http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf

The BP disaster highlights the needs for a timely response to spills, the¶
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needs to be done—and can be done—under current law.

Aff boosts reaction time. US Experts solve best.
Zakaria ‘11
Fareed Rafiq Zakaria is a journalist and author. From 2000 to 2010, he was a columnist for Newsweek and editor of Newsweek International. In 2010 he became editor-at-large of Time. He is the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS, Global Public Square. He is also a frequent commentator and author about issues related to international relations, trade, and American foreign policy – “Why our Cuba embargo could lead to another Gulf oil disaster” – CNN: Global Public Square Blogs – 9-19-11 – http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/19/why-our-cuba-policy-could-lead-to-another-gulf-oil-spill/

Can you remember what explosive crisis America and the world was fixated on last summer
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Cuban people, keep them impoverished and cut them off from the world.

Scenario #1 is the Environment
Spill spreads and kills ecosystems. That’s key to regional biodiversity.
Almeida ‘12
Rob Almeida is Partner/CMO at gCaptain. He graduated from the US Naval Academy in 1999 with a B.S in Naval Architecture and spent 6.5 years on active duty as a Surface Warfare Officer. He worked for a year as a Roughneck/Rig Manager trainee on board the drillship Discoverer Americas. May 18th – http://gcaptain.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/

In short however, Cuba’s access to containment systems, offshore technology, and spill
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oil spill could inflict unprecedented environmental devastation if not planned for in advance.

Biodiversity in specific hotspots checks extinction. Key to ag, medicine, and ecosystems
Mittermeier ‘11
(et al, Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He has conducted fieldwork for over 30 years on three continents and in more than 20 countries in mainly tropical locations. He is the President of Conservation International and he is considered an expert on biological diversity. Mittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species. From Chapter One of the book Biodiversity Hotspots – F.E. Zachos and J.C. Habel (eds.), DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011. This evidence also internally references Norman Myers, a very famous British environmentalist specialising in biodiversity. available at: http://www.academia.edu/1536096/Global_biodiversity_conservation_the_critical_role_of_hotspots)

Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is¶ irreversible
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than 30 of original vegetation remaining” criterion to a genuine hotspot.

Caribbean is one such hotspot.
CEPF ‘10
(quoting Mittermeier -- the same author that establishes the “hotspot” thesis and writes our impact ev. , Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. CEPF is the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund – “Ecosystem Profile: THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOT” – Prepared by: BirdLife International¶ in collaboration with:¶ Durrell Wildlife Conservation¶ Trust / Bath University¶ The New York Botanical Garden¶ and with the technical support of:¶ Conservation International-Center¶ for Applied Biodiversity Science; assistance for this report was offered by 100 international and non-profit organizations. Jan 15th – http://www.cepf.net/Documents/Final_Caribbean_EP.pdf)

The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is one of the  world’s greatest centers of biodiversity and¶
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species amounting to at least 2 percent of the world’s total¶ species. 

Scenario #2 is the Economy
Independently, another major spill would crush the US economy
National Commission ‘11
Commission is co-chaired by William K. Reilly. Reilly was Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under President George H. W. Bush. He has served as president of World Wildlife Fund, as a founder or advisor to several business ventures, and on many boards of directors. In 2010, he was appointed by President Barack Obama co-chair of the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling to investigate the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Report to the President; National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling – January 2011 ¶ http://www.oilspillcommission.gov/sites/default/files/documents/DEEPWATER_ReporttothePresident_FINAL.pdf

Chapters 4 through 7 lay out the results of our investigation in detail, highlighting
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, our¶ workers safer, and our cherished natural resources better protected.

U.S. economy key to the global economy
Caploe ‘9
(David Caploe is CEO of the Singapore-incorporated American Centre for Applied Liberal Arts and Humanities in Asia., “Focus still on America to lead global recovery”, April 7, The Strait Times, lexis)

IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
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US - and it is going to have to be solved there too.

Economic decline causes war – studies prove
Royal ‘10
(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Plan Text
The United States federal government should permit companies to provide services for the development of Cuban upstream offshore oil.
Contention 3 - Solvency
Plan is effective, topical, and US firms would say “yes”.
Benjamin-Alvarado ‘10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation,” a Brookings Publication – obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 125-26

There are numerous areas in the energy sector in which the United States and Cuba
AND
changes in the Cuban embargo so that this type of engagement can occur.

Cuba also says “yes”. This spills-into broader coop.  
Benjamin-Alvarado ‘10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, “Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation,” a Brookings Publication – obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 120

Undoubtedly, after fifty years of enmity, there is a significant lack of trust
AND
the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities.
Caribbean stability solves
E.U. 06 EU – European Union legislation, 2/3/06; “An EU-Caribbean Partnership for Growth, Stability, and Development”; http://ec.europa.eu/development/icenter/repository/communication_86_2006_en.pdf
accesssed 9/24/13
NL
Security, stability and conflict prevention are essential prerequisites for sustainable development. Security has
AND
the dialogue and interaction among members, acting as a peer pressure mechanism.

No prior questions
Owen 2 (David, professor of social and political philosophy and deputy director of the Centre for Philosophy and Value at the University of Southampton, “Re-orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”, Millennium - Journal of International Studies 2002 31: 653)
The first danger with the philosophical turn is that it has an inbuilt tendency to
AND
the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Tournament: Milton | Round: 2 | Opponent: Alpharetta CC | Judge: Bill Batterman
1AC – Milton

1AC – Plan Text
Plan Text: The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba. 

1AC – Ethanol
The plan is key to revive the Cuban sugar ethanol industry – only removal of the embargo solves and displaces US corn ethanol
Holmes, 10– B.A. from Georgetown, Master’s Thesis (Michael G., June 21, 2010, “Seizing the Moment”, https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1, pg. 74-78)NG
Creating a new market for U.S. goods and services creates a strong
AND
Cuba's technology sector and potentially increase the ease and volume of ethanol production.
Sugarcane exports are feasible and desired.
Squatriglia 8 – Writer for WIRED (Chuck, “With Fidel Gone, Will Cuba Become a Global Ethanol Player?”, WIRED, Feb 19, 2008, http://www.wired.com/cars/energy/news/2008/02/cuba_ethanol)||DK
Fidel Castro hates ethanol. He thinks it punishes the poor by driving up food
AND
Department says it won't lift the trade embargo on Cuba any time soon.

Scenario 1 is Food Prices
Corn ethanol is the strongest IL into food prices – prefer mathematical modeling
New England Complex Systems Institute, 11- research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions (“The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion”, NECSI, 9/21/11, http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_prices.pdf)//TL
Finally, we consider conversion of corn to ethanol. Only a small fraction of
AND
production. Price variation during that period must be due to other causes.

Specifically-US corn ethanol increases food prices and causes conflicts like Arab Spring
Sandoval, 2/7/13- Reporter for the Heritage Foundation citing Yaneer Bar-Yam, American physicist, systems scientist, and founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, which is a research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions. (Michael, “Ethanol Mandate Leads to Violence, Social Unrest”, Heritage.org, http://blog.heritage.org/2013/02/07/ethanol-mandate-leads-to-social-unrest/)//TL
The conversion of corn to ethanol has contributed to a doubling in global food prices
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redeemed by arguing that the bad impact might be a small bad impact.
Global food shortages risk extinction from starvation and war
Julian Cribb, Professor in Science Communication at the University of Technology Sydney, 2010 (Julian, principal of JCA, fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, “The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do to Avoid It”, pg 10)
The character of human conflict has also changed: since the early 1990s, more
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believe future food shortages are a far bigger world threat than global warming."
Scenario 2 is Warming
Increased corn production destroys wetlands and prairies – leads to warming
Specht ’13- Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D., Washington University in St. Louis 2012 (Jonathan, “Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States”, 36 UC Davis L. Rev. 185-188, April 24 2013, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf) CW
Increased corn production is degrading two environmentally significant habitats in the Great Plains, grasslands
AND
to clean as the grasslands and wetlands that once filtered contaminants disappear. 100
Warming is real and anthropogenic – carbon dioxide increase, polar ice records, melting glaciers, sea level rise
Prothero 12 Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, vol 17 no 2, EBSCO
Converging Lines of Evidence¶ How do we know that global warming is real and
AND
pinnacles, but the rest of these drowned cities would lie deep underwater.
Extinction
Sawin 12 Janet Sawin, Senior Director of the Energy and Climate Change Program at the WorldWatch Institute, Aug 2012, “Climate Change Poses Greater Security Threat than Terrorism
As early as 1988, scientists cautioned that human tinkering with the Earth's climate amounted
AND
migration across borders has frequently led to violent clashes over land and resources.
1AC – Ethics
Removing the embargo solves for human rights and forces the regime to stop abusing Cubans
Amash 12 Brandon - International Relations at UC San Diego, Evaluating the Cuban Embargo, Prospect: Journal of International Affairs at UCSD, http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/
Cuba has a long record of violating the fundamental human rights of freedom of opinion
AND
and promote democracy, and thus give greater attention to human rights violations.
The embargo itself is a human rights violation and failure
Hernandez-Truyol 09 Berta E. - Mabie, Levin and Mabie Professor of Law, University of Florida, Levin College  of Law, Truyol, Embargo or Blockade - The Legal and Moral Dimensions of the U.S. Economic Sanctions on Cuba, 4 Intercultural Hum. Rts. L. Rev. 53 (2009)
V Conclusion: The Human
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moral if not legal failure.
The Cuban embargo imposes suffering and destroys the moral integrity of innocent populations – it’s a systemic impact
 Herrera 3 Rémy - economist, is a CNRS researcher, national de la Recherche scientifique, National Centre for Scientific Research at the University of Paris, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 38, No. 41 (Oct. 11-17, 2003), pp. 4310-4311, “US Embargo against Cuba: Urgent Need to Lift It”, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/4414129.pdf?acceptTC=true
The US embargo against Cuba is condemned by an ever larger and by now overwhelming
AND
such as food, medicines or medical equipment and exchanges of scientific information.
Human Rights are an absolute good – must act to protect them in all instances
Human Rights Watch 97 An Introduction to the Human Rights Movement, http://www.hrweb.org/intro.html

Whereas disregard and contempt for human rights
AND
clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.
And, the embargo is an act of genocide – it disproportionately affects the Cuban population
Malott 7 (Curry, From New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, NM
AND
Critical Education Policy Studies, v5 n1 May 2007 pg. 245)moxley
 The US has not been trying to influence the revolution but to
AND
whom have lived their entire lives under the embargo (Granma, 2005).

That’s a decision rule - genocide is the ultimate evil and can be stopped via an act of rejection
Vetlesen, 2k – Arne Johan Vetlesen, Department of Philosophy, University of Oslo, July 2000, Journal of Peace Research, “Genocide: A Case for the Responsibility of the Bystander,” p. 520-522 *We do not endorse gendered language*
Most often, in cases of genocide, for every person directly victimized and killed
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inactive bystander, by which I mean the bystander who decides to remain inactive

The embargo upholds a tourism industry grounded in racism
St. Martin and Thompson, 3 – (Amy St. Martin is a Laurie Crumpacker scholar graduate of the Gender and Cultural Studies M.A. Program at Simmons College. Bucky Thompson is a Professor of Sociology at Simmons College. “Cuban Tourism: In The Name of Progressive Politics" Race, Gender and Class Vol. 10 No. 4, 2003)
The Cuban government's encouragement of tourism partly reflects Cuba`s need for foreign capital
AND
caters to white American and European tourists and feeds into white supremacist practices.
Racism outweighs every impact – it’s the precondition to ethical political decision making.
Memmi, 2k – Professor Emeritus of Sociology at the University of Paris (Albert, “RACISM”, translated by Steve Martinot, pp.163-165)

The struggle against racism will be long, difficult, without intermission, without remission
AND
.  True, it is a wager, but the stakes are irresistible.

1AC – Solvency
Normal Trade Relations is vital – no trade occurs without it
French 09 – editor of and a frequent contributor to The Havana Note, has led more than two dozen research trips to Cuba (Anya, “Options for Engagement A Resource Guide for Reforming U.S. Policy toward Cuba” http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Cuba/USPolicy/options-for-engagement.pdf)
the path to “normal” trade relations If the United States were to lift
AND
years, as both countries would need to adopt statutory and regulatory changes.
No prior questions to the 1AC (0:25)
Owen 02 (David, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium, Vol 31, No 3)
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘a
AND
the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.
Consequences matter – the tunnel vision of moral absolutism generates evil and political irrelevance
Issac, 2002 (Jeffery, Professor of Political Science at Indiana University, Dissent, Vol. 49 No. 2, Spring)
Politics, in large part, involves contests over the distribution and use of power
AND
not true believers.  It promotes arrogance.  And it undermines political effectiveness.  
Extinction comes first.
Bok, 1988
(Sissela, Professor of Philosophy, Brandeis, “Applied Ethics and Ethical Theory”, Google Scholar)
The same argument can be made for Kant’s other formulations of the Categorical Imperative:
AND
even killing an innocent person, in order that the world not perish.

Evaluation of consequences is the utmost ethical act – their ethic allows infinite violence
Williams 2005 (Michael, Professor of International Politics at the University of Wales—Aberystwyth,
The Realist Tradition and the Limits of International Relations, p. 174-176)
A commitment to an ethic of consequences reflects a deeper ethic of criticism, of
AND
— it is both a condition of, and imperative toward, responsibility.

Any risk of a nuclear use must be treated as absolute because it will result in extinction.
Schell 82, Fate of the Earth pg. 82, God of Policy debate, debate.uvm.edu/NFL/rostrumlib/CheshierJan'01.pdf  
It is clear that at present, with some twenty thousand megatons of nuclear explosive
AND
that their use would put an end to our species. (95)    
The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition
Koenig 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
AND
guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
Only full removal of the embargo solves – partial or conditioned removal is worse than the status quo.
Gorrell 05 Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army War College Lieutenant Colonel Tim Gorrell, Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?, Strategy Research Project, 18 March 2005, U.S. Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074
RETAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA, BUT ENFORCE THEM IN VARYING DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL
AND
have to lose by attempting a bold shift in its policy toward Cuba?

Tournament: Milton | Round: 4 | Opponent: AHS WM | Judge: Erin Caldwell
See open source

Tournament: Milton | Round: 5 | Opponent: Westminster KO | Judge: Sarah Beth Thomas
See open source

Tournament: Sequoyah Autumn Argument | Round: 1 | Opponent: Johns Creek LP | Judge: Matt Johnson
1AC – Sequoyah
1AC – Instability
Castro’s reforms will inevitably fail – that triggers economic and social collapse
Morales 13 (Ermilio, He holds a B.S. in Computer Science from the José Antonio Echevarría Higher Polytechnic Institute in Havana, and a Masters in Marketing from the University of Havana. He also earned an MBA from the Higher School of Marketing in Madrid, Spain. As a high-ranking professional in Cuba, he worked for more than 10 years in marketing research, and authored or co-authored more than 50 different government marketing studies of products and services in the health-care field, tourism, cell phones, retailing, medical equipment, tourism, and investment strategies. He provided technical service for the Cuban government in a variety of binational projects in South Africa, Argentina and Canada, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?” August 23rd, 2013, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_contentandview=articleandid=3483Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopiaandcatid=473Aeconomyandlang=en)//moxley
The reforms that began under Raúl Castro's government, despite having the greatest reach since
AND
as architects, engineers and programmers-- are not included in these reforms.
Only an immediate and complete rollback of the embargo can ensure successful reform and prevent Cuban collapse
Timothy Ashby, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 3/29/13
(PRESERVING STABILITY IN CUBA AFTER NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES – THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADING WITH STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)
Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and
AND
-way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.

Plan key to US-Cuban relations which preserve Caribbean stability – coop enables effective regional security
Tierney 9 (John F. – Chairman, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, “Hearing on "National Security Implications of U.S. Policy toward Cuba"”, 4/29, http://tierney.house.gov/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=588andItemid=500141)
Current U.S. policy toward Cuba is anachronistic and unsustainable - and it
AND
in the western Caribbean and disrupt ongoing operations of South American cocaine mafias.

Caribbean stability solves for the root cause of conflict and inequality - checks terrorism
E.U. 06 EU – European Union legislation, 2/3/06; “An EU-Caribbean Partnership for Growth, Stability, and Development”; http://ec.europa.eu/development/icenter/repository/communication_86_2006_en.pdf
accesssed 9/24/13
NL
Security, stability and conflict prevention are essential prerequisites for sustainable development. Security has
AND
the dialogue and interaction among members, acting as a peer pressure mechanism.
Caribbean instability leads to terrorism and distracts the US from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucus, and North Korea
Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
AND
in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
North Korean threats go nuclear
Kline 13—Comment Editor and Writer @ National Post Jesse Kline (Master of Journalism degree from the University of British Columbia), “Deterrence is the best way to prevent war with North Korea,” National Post, April 9, 2013, pg. http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/09/jesse-kline-deterrence-is-the-best-way-to-prevent-war-with-north-korea/

Another day, another provocation from North Korea. Last week the reclusive regime threatened
AND
only embolden North Korea—making the powder keg more likely to blow.
African conflicts cause great power war
Glick 7 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56andcategoryid=56andsubcategoryid=90andnewsid=11568)
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,
AND
waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.
Caucasus conflict goes nuclear
Joshua Kucera, 12/28/2011. Freelance journalist specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. “Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?” EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64765.
And in Komsomolskaya Pravda, Mikhail Barabanov of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and
AND
Armed Forces. Things might escalate into a nuclear exchange, you know.
Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions
Bryan 1 (Anthony T., Director of the Caribbean Program – North/South Center, and Stephen E. Flynn, Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation”, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the
AND
else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
Bioterrorism results in extinction
Sandberg et al 8 – Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. PhD in computation neuroscience, Stockholm—AND—Jason G. Matheny—PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins. special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh—AND—Milan M. ?irkovi?—senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade. Assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad. (Anders, How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?, 9 September 2008, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction)
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones.
AND
may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.

LNG tanker explosions cause catastrophic damage – outweighs nuclear war
Lovin 1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President – National Capitalism and Co-Founder – Rocky Mountain Institute, “Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security”,  http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto
AND
of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

Thus the plan - The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement toward the Republic of Cuba.
1AC – Economy
Lack of investment in capital goods makes collapse inevitable¶
Nash-Hoff 10/24 Michelle, Founder and President of ElectroFab Sales, a sales agency specializing in helping manufacturers select the right processes for their products, 2013, “Decline in Capital Investment Is Threat to American Innovation,” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michele-nashhoff/decline-in-capital-invest_b_4143596.html
In early October, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
AND
. Thus, investment declines in one industry sector after another.
U.S. economy key to the global economy
Caploe ‘9
(David Caploe is CEO of the Singapore-incorporated American Centre for Applied Liberal Arts and Humanities in Asia., “Focus still on America to lead global recovery”, April 7, The Strait Times, lexis)

IN THE aftermath of the G-20 summit, most observers seem to have
AND
US - and it is going to have to be solved there too.
The plan solves – 3 reasons:
a. Resources – The embargo kills US access to resources like natural gas and oil
Grogg 06- Patricia Grogg; Cuban correspondent to IPS, studied Journalism in the University of Havana (“Cuba Embargo’s Boomerang Effect” IPS, October 2006, http://havanajournal.com/politics/entry/cuba-embargos-boomerang-effect/, accessed: 6/27/13, ML)
Washington’s embargo against Cuba also has an impact on the United States economy and prevents
AND
also signed a contract for four blocks in this deep water drilling area.
Resource wars lead to extinction
Lendman ‘7
(Stephen Lendman is a renowned author and Research Associate of the Center for Research on Globalization (CRG). The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) is an independent research and media organization based in Montreal. The CRG is involved in book publishing, support to humanitarian projects as well as educational outreach activities including the organization of public conferences and lectures. The Centre also acts as a think tank on crucial economic and geopolitical issues. Stephen has written extensively on war and peace, social justice in America and many other national and international issues. Stephen Lendman is a recipient of a 2008 Project Censored Award, University of California at Sonoma – “Resource Wars – Can We Survive Them?” – Global Research, June 06, 2007 – http://www.globalresearch.ca/resource-wars-can-we-survive-them/5892)

With the world’s energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports, and
AND
, or at least a big part of it, would have survived.

b. Trade – The embargo significantly decreases trade between Cuba and America
West-Duran 12 – Alan West-Duran, PhD, Director of the Latino/Latin American and Caribbean Studies Program at Northwestern University, (“Cuba”, Book published by Gale: Cengage Learning, 2012 (Publish Date), http://www.gale.cengage.com/pdf/samples/CubaSampleChapter.pdf, Accessed 7/02/13, AW)
President Barack Obama has said, “Our guiding¶ light . . . is
AND
hardship for Cuban¶ families, especially their loved ones on the island.
Extinction – Trade solves all conflict
Daniel Grisworld 12/28/5, director of the Cato Institute Center for Trade Policy Studies,”Peace on Earth? Try Free Trade among Men”
Buried beneath the daily stories about car bombs and insurgents is an underappreciated but comforting
AND
acquire them peacefully by trading away what they can produce best at home.¶
c. Manufacturing – Lifting the embargo significantly boosts manufacturing
Ball 12 (chipsball, contributer to Hubpages, “Lift Trade Embargo Against Cuba… Create U.S. Jobs”, August 2012, http://hubpages.com/forum/topic/100613, Accessed: 7/4/13, EH)
The U.S. Economy needs a "jolt". Lifting the U.
AND
is whether or not the Obama Administration has the courage to pursue it.

Decline of US manufacturing triggers unchecked Chinese rise and South China Sea conflict
Mosher 6 Steven is the President of the Population Research Institute. “CHINESE INFLUENCE ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY THROUGH U.S. EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, MULTILATERAL ORGANIZATIONS AND CORPORATE AMERICA: HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND INVESTIGATIONS OF THE COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,” Feb 14, http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/intlrel/hfa26076.000/hfa26076_0f.htm
The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
AND
desire to reduce U.S. influence and presence in the region.
Unchecked Chinese rise causes great power nuclear war
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to the United States that the PRC does
AND
a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances.
South China Sea conflict goes nuclear
Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?",  www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
AND
that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.
Economic decline causes war – studies prove
Royal ‘10
(Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
AND
not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
Economic collapse causes Asian instability and war – high probability
Auslin 9 – resident scholar at AEI (Michael “Averting Disaster”, The Daily Standard, 2/6, http://www.aei.org/article/100044
As they deal with a collapsing world economy, policymakers in Washington and around the
AND
types of miscalculation and greed that have destroyed international systems in the past.

Asia war outweighs – draws in great powers and destroys international stability
White 8 – Hugh White 8, Professor of Strategic Studies at Australian National University and Visiting Fellow, the Lowy Institute, June 4, 2008, “'Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable' ,” online: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-challenges-as-played-out-in-asia/asias-strategic-challenges-in-search-of-a-common-agenda/conference-papers/fifth-session-conflict-in-asia/why-war-in-asia-remains-thinkable-prof-hugh-white/
But while I agree that war in Asia is unlikely, it does seem to
AND
and their successors have done so much to study, understand and prevent.

1AC – Solvency
Only full removal of the embargo solves – partial or conditioned removal is worse than the status quo.
Gorrell 05 Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army War College Lieutenant Colonel Tim Gorrell, Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?, Strategy Research Project, 18 March 2005, U.S. Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074
RETAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA, BUT ENFORCE THEM IN VARYING DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL
AND
have to lose by attempting a bold shift in its policy toward Cuba?
Lifting of the embargo is inevitable – triggers your disads
Ediger 9/19/12 – (Don, “Cuba Post-Castro Future” Masters from the University of Southern California and a writer for Consortium News with background at the Sacramento Master Club, Consortium News is a peer-reviewed and edited News service with reviewers from the Associated Press and Newsweek, Available online @ http://consortiumnews.com/2012/09/19/cubas-post-castro-future/)
With Fidel Castro now 86 and his brother Raul at 81, big changes appear
AND
might also provide the Cuban government with an incentive to be less repressive.¶
Currently, the embargo won’t get removed until 2018
Rajo 3-2-13 (Carolos, “Analysis: Castro brothers' successor may inherit a very different Cuba”, March 2nd, 2013, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/02/17133513-analysis-castro-brothers-successor-may-inherit-a-very-different-cuba?lite)//moxley
The U.S. State Department reacted tepidly to Castro’s announcement and made clear
AND
For now, at least, it seems that won’t happen until 2018.

Independently, Latin America is structurally improving due to globalization
O’Neil 13 (Shannon O’Neil is senior fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), O’Neil has taught in the political science department at Columbia University. She is a frequent commentator on major television and radio programs, and her work has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica, Americas Quarterly, Política Exterior, Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times, among others, and she has testified before the U.S. Congress on U.S. policy toward Mexico, she was a justice, welfare, and economics fellow at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She was also a Fulbright scholar in Mexico and Argentina. Prior to her academic work, Dr. O’Neil worked in the private sector as an equity analyst at Indosuez Capital Latin America and Credit Lyonnais Securities. She holds a BA from Yale University, an MA in international relations from Yale University, and a PhD in government from Harvard University, “Latin American Success Story”, June 16th, 2013, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/07/16/latin-america-s-secret-success-story.html)//moxley
Latin America rarely looms large on the global scene, overshadowed by Europe, the
AND
than to look toward its hemispheric neighbors, who have much to impart.
And, the embargo is an act of genocide – it disproportionately affects the Cuban population and is maintained only to destroy socialism
Malott 7 (Curry, From New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, NM
AND
Critical Education Policy Studies, v5 n1 May 2007 pg. 245)moxley
 The US has not been trying to influence the revolution but to
AND
whom have lived their entire lives under the embargo (Granma, 2005).
The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition – that’s key to American soft-power
Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
AND
guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.

Tournament: UGA | Round: 1 | Opponent: Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart DW | Judge: Robert Galerstein
1AC – UGA
Plan Text
Plan: The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba. 

1AC – Multilateralism
Overstretch makes US unilateralism terminally unsustainable
Wiser 13 Daniel, reporter for The Washington Free Beacon specializing in finances, trade, national security, and human rights, “Report: Sequestration, 10/11, Military Budget Cuts Hurting National Security”  http://freebeacon.com/report-sequestration-military-budget-cuts-hurting-national-security/
A combination of budget cuts and escalating compensation costs will reduce the U.S
AND
the Navy 330 ships and eight carriers by 2021, the report said.

Multilateralism is a credible alternative- it promotes band-wagoning and international coalitions among US allies, strengthening the US-led system and reviving legitimacy
*only multilateralism solves global problems, unilateralism fails for several reasons –
a. technology – the internet and instant communications makes small states and non-state actors immune to hard power – even rogue states can shape public opinion against America through state-run news agencies
b. threats – terrorism, disease and the private arms trade cannot be addressed via unilateralism – they are global problems that demand local solutions which only multilateralism resolves
c. facilitates state-sponsored backlash – creates bloated international institutions that delay successful solutions – the failures of Kyoto, Copenhagen and every global trade treaty for the past 20 years prove that hard power doesn’t result in global cooperation – multilateralism results in joint-info sharing that solves
Ikenberry and Kupchan 04 – (John Ikenberry and Charles Kupchan, “Liberal Realism: The Foundations of a Democratic Foreign Policy,” National Interest (Fall 2004))
It is misguided, however, to assume that America's preponderant power, when combined
AND
and to make disaffected allies again feel like stakeholders in the international system.
US led multilateralism solves war through greater power sharing and international cooperation
Pouliot, 11 — Professor of Political Science at McGill University (Vincent, “Multilateralism as an End in Itself”, International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26) NG
Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints
AND
that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23
Only the unconditional offer of full normal trade relations affords the US with cred and soft power—boosts Cuban relations
Koenig 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130) *GENDER MODIFIED*
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
AND
it onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
Two internal links—

1. Engaging Cuba is a prereq to engaging the rest of Latin America
   Perez 10  JD, Yale Law (David, “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)
   Anti-Americanism has become the political chant de jour for leaders seeking long-
   AND
   throughout Latin America, and would go a long way toward creating goodwill.
   Latin American hemispheric diplomacy is key to multilat
   Sabatini and Berger 12 Christopher and Ryan, Sabatini is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. Berger is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, “Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin America”  http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america/
   Speaking in Santiago, Chile, in March of last year, President Obama called
   AND
   S. “backyard” that is outside broader, global strategic concerns.
   2. Lifting the embargo is key to US image globally
   Holmes 10 Michael G., master’s degree in Arts In Liberal Studies from Georgetown University, “A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The School of Continuing Studies and of The Graduate School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts In Liberal Studies”
   https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1
   From an image stand point repealing the sanctions and removing the embargo is symbolic.
   AND
   , the two benefits that stand out the most are trade and fuel.
   Scenario 1—Credibility
   Only the plan creates a credible model for conflict resolution – it’s the single most contentious international issue and boosts Obama’s credibility
   Not just about Obama cred – general US cred/soft power solves conflict too
   Dickerson 10 SERGIO M., serves as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA” http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf
   At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba as a
   AND
   decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.
   Obama’s strength is uniquely key to solve conflict
   Ben Coes 11, a former speechwriter in the George H.W. Bush administration, managed Mitt Romney’s successful campaign for Massachusetts Governor in 2002 and author, “The disease of a weak president”, The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/
   The disease of a weak president usually begins with the Achilles’ heel all politicians are
   AND
   one or the other. The status quo is simply not an option.
   Scenario 2—Warming
   A multilateral approach to climate change is the only way to solve warming
   IISD 13 International Institute for Sustainable Development, “Global Climate Actions - Achieving progress though the UNFCCC and the other international processes”, 2013, http://www.iisd.org/climate/unfccc/
   The Earth's atmosphere is shared by all peoples of the world, with emissions of
   AND
   to cross-border issues such as watershed management, migration and conflict.
   Warming is real and anthropogenic – carbon dioxide increase, polar ice records, melting glaciers, sea level rise
   Prothero 12 Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, vol 17 no 2, EBSCO
   Converging Lines of Evidence¶ How do we know that global warming is real and
   AND
   pinnacles, but the rest of these drowned cities would lie deep underwater.
   Warming is reversible but this decade is key
   Chestney 12 – Reuters reporter, citing executive director of the Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute (Nina, “Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible – Scientists”, 3/26/13;  http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/us-climate-thresholds-idUSBRE82P0UJ20120326)
   (Reuters) - The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make
   AND
   firm's vice president of global business environment. The conference runs through Thursday.
   Extinction

1AC – Ethanol
The plan is key to revive the Cuban sugar ethanol industry – only removal of the embargo solves and displaces US corn ethanol
Holmes, 10– B.A. from Georgetown, Master’s Thesis (Michael G., June 21, 2010, “Seizing the Moment”, https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1, pg. 74-78)NG
Creating a new market for U.S. goods and services creates a strong
AND
Cuba's technology sector and potentially increase the ease and volume of ethanol production.
Sugarcane exports are feasible and desired.
Squatriglia 8 – Writer for WIRED (Chuck, “With Fidel Gone, Will Cuba Become a Global Ethanol Player?”, WIRED, Feb 19, 2008, http://www.wired.com/cars/energy/news/2008/02/cuba_ethanol)||DK
Fidel Castro hates ethanol. He thinks it punishes the poor by driving up food
AND
Department says it won't lift the trade embargo on Cuba any time soon.

Corn ethanol is the strongest IL into food prices – prefer mathematical modeling
New England Complex Systems Institute, 11- research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions (“The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion”, NECSI, 9/21/11, http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_prices.pdf)//TL
Finally, we consider conversion of corn to ethanol. Only a small fraction of
AND
production. Price variation during that period must be due to other causes.

US corn ethanol increases food prices and causes conflict
Sandoval, 2/7/13- Reporter for the Heritage Foundation citing Yaneer Bar-Yam, American physicist, systems scientist, and founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, which is a research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions. (Michael, “Ethanol Mandate Leads to Violence, Social Unrest”, Heritage.org, http://blog.heritage.org/2013/02/07/ethanol-mandate-leads-to-social-unrest/)//TL
The conversion of corn to ethanol has contributed to a doubling in global food prices
AND
redeemed by arguing that the bad impact might be a small bad impact.
Global food shortages risk extinction from starvation and war
Julian Cribb, Professor in Science Communication at the University of Technology Sydney, 2010 (Julian, principal of JCA, fellow of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering, “The Coming Famine: The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do to Avoid It”, pg 10)
The character of human conflict has also changed: since the early 1990s, more
AND
believe future food shortages are a far bigger world threat than global warming."
1AC – Solvency
Normalizing trade relations is key
-economic engagement (not appeasement) – affords Obama credibility – domestically and internationally popular – brings change and reform to Cuba – requires Congress – frees Cubans from the oppressive influence of the state
FT 2/21 Financial Times, US Political, Financial, and Business News—Editorial, 2014, “Time for US policy change on Cuba,” http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/784c8cb6-9af0-11e3-b0d0-00144feab7de.html#axzz2uAhII2TV
If a policy is not achieving its objective, either the policy must change or
AND
policy must begin where you are, not where you hope to end.
And, the embargo is an act of genocide – it disproportionately affects the Cuban population
Malott 7 (Curry, From New Mexico State University in Las Cruces, NM
AND
Critical Education Policy Studies, v5 n1 May 2007 pg. 245)moxley
 The US has not been trying to influence the revolution but to
AND
whom have lived their entire lives under the embargo (Granma, 2005).
No prior questions to the 1AC
Owen 02 (David, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium, Vol 31, No 3)
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘a
AND
the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Only full removal of the embargo solves – partial or conditioned removal is worse than the status quo.
Gorrell 05 Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army War College Lieutenant Colonel Tim Gorrell, Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?, Strategy Research Project, 18 March 2005, U.S. Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074
RETAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA, BUT ENFORCE THEM IN VARYING DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL
AND
have to lose by attempting a bold shift in its policy toward Cuba?

Tournament: Cites | Round: Finals | Opponent: Everyone | Judge: No One
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