Tournament: NDCA | Round: 1 | Opponent: Niles North OW | Judge: McCaffrey, Kevin

Welcome to the United States — where cultures that refuse to accept our mindset become threats and we respond by placing economic sanctions upon them — our culture bribes us to accept Cuba as an inferior yet threatening nation — this prevents us from seeking solutions to true oppression and violence.

Schoultz, 10 – Professor of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill (Lars, "Benevolent Domination: The Ideology of US Policy Towards Cuba", NG)

The United States and Cuba have not had normal diplomatic relations since January 3,
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. Our euphemism for these people and their societies is ’’underdeveloped.’’1
This ideology is not a facade masking sel?sh interests and, in particular, a
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revert to the aboriginal state in which Alvarado the Spaniard found it.’’2
The best way to begin—but only begin—to explain U.S
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States came to perceive Cuba’s revolutionary government as a threat to its interests.
For three of the past ?ve decades, roughly from 1960 to 1990, the
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keep potential adversaries as far away as possible, and Cuba is close.
’’We will bury you,’’ Nikita Khrushchev boasted in 1956, just as
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an unacceptable challenge to the primordial U.S. interest in security.
The Cuban Revolution also attacked substantial economic interests. The U.S. government
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it—a full-court press by U.S. diplomats.
But most investors of Robert Kleberg’s generation wrote off their losses decades ago, and
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Havana’s harbor. It was the ?rst signi?cant trade with Cuba since 1963.
Cubans apparently liked what they bought, and soon the invisible hand of supply and
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business leaders hoping to convince Cubans to use their port for food shipments.
These visits were but a prelude to the main event in 2003: a privately
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major market for U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans.’’4
So here we are, at a time when national security of?cials no longer have
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lose two; Florida has twenty-seven and will probably gain two).
At ?rst, Cuban immigrants were politically impotent, but soon they began to take
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-fashioned way, with campaign contri- butions and bloc voting.6
And CANF did this at a propitious moment: it had spent the 1980s honing
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is that we look to the rest of the world like idiots.’’8
Then came Elián González, the ?ve-year-old boy found clinging to
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W. Bush the presidency with a ?ve-vote electoral college margin.
Since then, the question has been: When will Cuban Americans begin to vote
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imme- diately allow unlimited family travel and remittances to the island.’’
When implemented in 2009, this relaxation of the embargo’s travel and remittance provisions more
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hijacked boat in the Straits of Florida and returned the hijackers to Cuba.
Enough is enough, wrote ninety-eight prominent Cuban Americans, taking out an
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-line Cuban American base and probably contributed to his win in Florida.
Both George Bush and Barack Obama understood the importance of Flor- ida’s Cuban Americans
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up on family visits and remit- tances. And he won Florida.
So where is U.S. policy heading? Given the torpor that has
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, the pollsters will tell everyone it is safe to end the estrangement.
The truly interesting question is what might come after that. No one knows,
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exactly what we should: Go down and lift those people up.’’10
We should not make too much of this off-the-cuff response,
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word and I’ll turn that f—— island into a parking lot.’’11
What would seem puzzling to a visitor from another planet is why, when the
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major issue for Kennedy, who had much else on his mind.’’12
And this combination of awesome power and globe-girding responsibili- ties helps explain
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that would cost in the currency that might matter most: world opinion.
So what was plan B? First, there were a few years of what
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we ought to do to pinch their nuts more than we’re doing.’’14
Nut pinching—an embargo—has been U.S. policy ever since
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’’we might just as well get used to the idea.’’16
But tugging U.S. policy toward greater involvement is domestic politics— Cuban
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’’ Like its predecessor, the Obama administration is committed to uplifting Cuba.
Like the two post–Cold War presidents sandwiched between them—Bill Clinton and
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- tion, the greater energy, the purer morality of America.’’19
Today’s uplifting effort, which focuses on promoting democracy, carries on a tradition established
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a day or of a year, but of a longer period.’’20
Wood’s letter arrived in Washington at a moment when McKinley’s thoughts were on domestic politics—reelection—and when the rival Demo- crats were already making political capital out of his administration’s inability to pacify the Philippines, another part of the spoils seized from Spain. Seeking to balance that quagmire with progress in Cuba, the president ordered Wood to draw up the ?rst U.S. plan for Cuba’s democracy.
Wood did so. It began with the disenfranchisement of that part of the Cuban
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San Domingo, will be regarded as an event of ?rst importance.’’21
But then, when given their opportunity to vote—for Cuba’s ?rst constitu-
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change of government, unless it be annexation to the United States.’’22
But the Republicans had made an unambiguous campaign commitment to Cuban independence, and so
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. Estrada Palma’s election ended Washington’s ?rst effort to promote democracy in Cuba.
A second effort began four years later, in 1906, when a substantial number
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am seeking the very minimum of interference necessary to make them good.’’
Forced to the defensive after retaking a country only recently granted its independence, Roosevelt’s
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you need here among the Cubans is a desire to make money.’’25
As did Leonard Wood before him, Taft understood that the uplifting would not be
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by administering their Gov- ernment for two years or twenty years.’’27
As an alternative to a time-consuming attempt to de-Hispanicize Cuban culture
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elec- tion, and in early 1909, he sailed for home.
Although U.S. forces returned in 1912 to quash a complex Afro-
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sugar estates in central Cuba, where they stayed for ?ve years.28
It was during this partial occupation that the Wilson administration pres- sured President Mario
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recommendations which the President has instructed General Crowder to convey to him.’’29
Two days later, Crowder sailed into Havana’s harbor aboard a battleship, the USS
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. This is absolutely one of the ?nest things in human history.’’31 

====Current Sanctions imposed upon Cuba fulfill the prophecy of US exceptionialism — we must control the South and punish the countries that disobey our laws — disads are epistemologically flawed.====
Lamrani 03, Doctor of Iberian and Latin American Studies at the University Paris-Sorbonne Paris-IV He is a member of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research on Contemporary Iberian worlds (CRIMIC) from the University of Paris-Sorbonne Paris IV , and the Interdisciplinary Group on Hispanic Caribbean and Latin America (GRIAHAL) at the University of Cergy Pontoise. (Salim, U.S. Economic sanctions against Cuba: objectives of an imperialist policy, http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Caribbean/USEconomicSanctions_Cuba.html, chm—DR. H) Note: the date was derived from a chart this fine French fellow had in this article, the last date of which was 2003, and it said "votes until now" or something—charlie  

The economic sanctions imposed on Cuba by the United States are unique in view of
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mainly by violent and bloody conquest of new territories ­ proves this unequivocally.
As far back as the middle of the 19th century, U.S.
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would not be controversial if the society we live in was intellectually free.

The sanctions are in place not only to end anti-Imperialist movements both domestically and abroad but also to expand the cycle of enemy-creation.

Blum 11/8—Foreign Policy Journal, author, historian, and renowned critic of U.S. foreign policy. He is the author of numerous books, including "Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II" and "Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower" (William, 2013, The United Nations Vote on the Cuba Embargo – 22 Years In a Row, chm—DR. H)

For years American political leaders and media were fond of labeling Cuba an "international pariah". We haven’t heard that for a very long time. Perhaps one reason is the annual vote in the United Nations General Assembly on the resolution which reads: "Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States of America against Cuba". This is how the vote has gone (not including abstentions):
Year Votes (Yes-No) No Votes
1992 59-2 US, Israel 1993 88-4 US, Israel, Albania, Paraguay
1994 101-2 US, Israel 1995 117-3 US, Israel, Uzbekistan
1996 138-3 US, Israel, Uzbekistan
1997 143-3 US, Israel, Uzbekistan
1998 157-2 US, Israel
1999 155-2 US, Israel
2000 167-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands
2001 167-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands 2002 173-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands
2003 179-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands
2004 179-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2005 182-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2006 183-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2007 184-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2008 185-3 US, Israel, Palau
2009 187-3 US, Israel, Palau
2010 187-2 US, Israel
2011 186-2 US, Israel
2012 188-3 US, Israel, Palau
2013 188-2 US, Israel
Each fall the UN vote is a welcome reminder that the world has not completely lost its senses and that the American empire does not completely control the opinion of other governments.
Speaking before the General Assembly, October 29, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez declared: "The economic damages accumulated after half a century as a result of the implementation of the blockade amount to 241.126 trillion." He added that the blockade "has been further tightened under President Obama’s administration", some 30 US and foreign entities being hit with 242.446 billion in fines due to their interaction with Cuba.
However, the American envoy, Ronald Godard, in an appeal to other countries to oppose the resolution, said:
"The international community … cannot in good conscience ignore the ease and frequency with which the Cuban regime silences critics, disrupts peaceful assembly, impedes independent journalism and, despite positive reforms, continues to prevent some Cubans from leaving or returning to the island. The Cuban government continues its tactics of politically motivated detentions, harassment and police violence against Cuban citizens."~1~
So there you have it. That is why Cuba must be punished. One can only guess what Mr. Godard would respond if told that more than 7,000 people were arrested in the United States during the Occupy Movement’s first 8 months of protest;~2~ that their encampments were violently smashed up; that many of them were physically abused by the police.
Does Mr. Godard ever read a newspaper or the Internet, or watch television? Hardly a day passes in America without a police officer shooting to death an unarmed person?
As to "independent journalism" – what would happen if Cuba announced that from now on anyone in the country could own any kind of media? How long would it be before CIA money – secret and unlimited CIA money financing all kinds of fronts in Cuba – would own or control most of the media worth owning or controlling?
The real reason for Washington’s eternal hostility toward Cuba? The fear of a good example of an alternative to the capitalist model; a fear that has been validated repeatedly over the years as Third World countries have expressed their adulation of Cuba.
How the embargo began: On April 6, 1960, Lester D. Mallory
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year, the Eisenhower administration instituted the suffocating embargo against its everlasting enemy.

That requires an endless recreation of existential threats.

Ruži? 13—researcher and author for the Central and Eastern European Online Library (Maja, Securitization Outside the Liberal Political Context: Did Cuba Matter in the Cuban Missile Crisis?, http://www.sintezis.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Securitization-Outside-the-Liberal-Context.pdf-http://www.sintezis.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Securitization-Outside-the-Liberal-Context.pdf, chm)

 After 1990s the international relations scholarship, once dominated by the traditional notion of
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is presented as an existential threat that requires the implementation of emergency measures. 

Absent our interrogation, extinction becomes inevitable alongside the rendering of human lives into tools.
Burke 07 – Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations in the University of New South Wales (Anthony, Theory 26 Event, Volume 10, Issue 2, 2007, "Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason," Project MUSE)
This essay develops a theory about the causes of war — and thus aims to
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to state what is and how it must be maintained as it is.
I am thinking of ontology in both its senses: ontology as both a statement
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ontology is the ’politics of truth’18 in its most sweeping and powerful form.
I see such a drive for ontological certainty and completion as particularly problematic for a
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occasion, at limited cost and with limited impact — it permeates being.
This essay describes firstly the ontology of the national security state (by way of
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themselves, making them betray not only commitments but their own substance’. 21
What I am trying to describe in this essay is a complex relation between,
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being) has analytical value, it tends to break down in action.
The epistemology of violence I describe here (strategic science and foreign policy doctrine)
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war is seen as a natural phenomenon, like tomorrow’s sunrise.’ 22
The danger obviously raised here is that these dual ontologies of war link being,
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of politics and war — tragically violent ’choices’ will continue to be made.
The essay concludes by pondering a normative problem that arises out of its analysis:
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more sustainable, peaceful and non-violent global rule of the political.
Friend and Enemy: Violent Ontologies of the Nation-State
In his Politics Among Nations Hans Morgenthau stated that ’the national interest of a peace
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qualitative competition for conventional weapons is a rational instrument of international politics’.28
The conceptual template for such an image of  national security state can be found in
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hence its essential character from its own point of view is its singleness’:
Individuality is awareness of one’s existence as a unit in sharp distinction from others. It manifests itself here in the state as a relation to other states, each of which is autonomous vis-a-vis the others...this negative relation of the state to itself is embodied in the world as the relation of one state to another and as if the negative were something external.30
Schmitt is important both for understanding the way in which such alienation is seen as
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it society is not political and a people cannot be said to exist:
Only the actual participants can correctly recognise, understand and judge the concrete situation and settle the extreme case of conflict...to judge whether the adversary intends to negate his opponent’s way of life and therefore must be repulsed or fought in order to preserve one’s own form of existence.33
Schmitt links this stark ontology to war when he states that the political is only
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enemy distinction’.34 War, in short, is an existential condition:
    the entire life of a human being is a struggle and every human being is symbolically a combatant. The friend, enemy and combat concepts receive their real meaning precisely because they refer to the real possibility of physical killing. War follows from enmity. War is the existential negation of the enemy.35
Schmitt claims that his theory is not biased towards war as a choice (’It is by no means as though the political signifies nothing but devastating war and every political deed a military action...it neither favours war nor militarism, neither imperialism nor pacifism’) but it is hard to accept his caveat at face value.36
When such a theory takes the form of a social discourse (which it does
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ontologies of war join into a closed circle of mutual support and justification.
This closed circle of existential and strategic reason generates a number of dangers. Firstly
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Israeli-Arab conflict, are arguably examples of such ontologies in action.
Secondly, the militaristic force of such an ontology is visible, in Schmitt, in the absolute sense of vulnerability whereby a people can judge whether their ’adversary intends to negate his opponent’s way of life’.38 Evoking the kind of thinking that would become controversial in the Bush doctrine, Hegel similarly argues that:
    ...a state may regard its infinity and honour as at stake in each
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addition as a cause of strife the idea of such an injury...39
Identity, even more than physical security or autonomy, is put at stake in
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by conservatives to justify military adventurism and a rejectionist policy towards the Palestinians.
On the reverse side of such ontologies of national insecurity we find pride and hubris, the belief that martial preparedness and action are vital or healthy for the existence of a people. Clausewitz’s thought is thoroughly imbued with this conviction. For example, his definition of war as an act of policy does not refer merely to the policy of cabinets, but expresses the objectives and will of peoples:
    When whole communities go to war — whole peoples, and especially civilized peoples — the reason always lies in some political situation and the occasion is always due to some political object. War, therefore, is an act of policy.42
Such a perspective prefigures Schmitt’s definition of the ’political’ (an earlier translation reads ’war
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merges the existential and rationalistic conceptions of war into a theoretical unity.44
The idea that national identities could be built and redeemed through war derived from the
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time to time to shake them to the very centre by war’.46
The historian Azar Gat points to the similarity of Clausewitz’s arguments that ’a people and
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than cool political reason...war is a major aspect of being.’48
Hegel’s text argues that war is ’a work of freedom’ in which ’the individual’s substantive duty’ merges with the ’independence and sovereignty of the state’.49 Through war, he argues,
    the ethical health of peoples is preserved in their indifference to the stabilization of finite institutions; just as the blowing of the winds preserves the sea from the foulness which would be the result of a prolonged calm, so the corruption in nations would be the product of a prolonged, let alone ’perpetual’ peace.50
Hegel indeed argues that ’sacrifice on behalf of the individuality of the state is a
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realisation in which the individual dissolves into the higher unity of the state:
    The intrinsic worth of courage as a disposition of mind is to be found
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an attitude of complete indifference or even liking towards them as individuals.52
A more frank statement of the potentially lethal consequences of patriotism — and its simultaneously
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war and the social contract in the form of the national security state.
Strategic Reason and Scientific Truth
By itself, such an account of the nationalist ontology of war and security provides
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a machinic process of which war and violence are viewed as normal features.
These are the deeper claims and implications of Clausewitzian strategic reason. One of the
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, removed technical limits from the exercise of power in foreign policy’.55
Kissinger’s conviction was based not merely in his pride in the vast military and bureaucratic
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view that the real world is almost entirely internal to the observer’.56
At the same time, Kissinger’s hubris and hunger for control was beset by a
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hunger for stasis and certainty that would entrench U.S. hegemony:
    For the two decades after 1945, our international activities were based on the
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multipolarity even though overwhelming military strength will remain with the two superpowers.58
Kissinger’s statement revealed that such cravings for order and certainty continually confront chaos, resistance
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with a deeply controversial and divisive war to remove Saddam Hussein from power.
In this struggle with the lessons of Vietnam, revolutionary resistance, and rapid geopolitical
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associated rationality...does not inevitably produce a similar concept of reality’.61
We sense the rational policymaker’s frustrated desire: the world is supposed to work like a machine, ordered by a form of power and governmental reason which deploys machines and whose desires and processes are meant to run along ordered, rational lines like a machine. Kissinger’s desire was little different from that of Cromer who, wrote Edward Said:
    ...envisions a seat of power in the West and radiating out from it towards the East a great embracing machine, sustaining the central authority yet commanded by it. What the machine’s branches feed into it from the East — human material, material wealth, knowledge, what have you — is processed by the machine, then converted into more power...the immediate translation of mere Oriental matter into useful substance.62
This desire for order in the shadow of chaos and uncertainty — the constant war
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an exclusively quantitative analysis could science attain certain knowledge of the world’.65
Such doctrines of mathematically verifiable truth were to have powerful echoes in the 20th Century
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control of the weapons themselves, into political utility and rational strategy.66
Bacon thought of the new scientific method not merely as way of achieving a purer
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, that man may be said to be a god unto man’.68
We may be forgiven for blinking, but in Bacon’s thought ’man’ was indeed in the process of stealing a new fire from the heavens and seizing God’s power over the world for itself. Not only would the new empirical science lead to ’an improvement of mankind’s estate, and an increase in their power over nature’, but would reverse the primordial humiliation of the Fall of Adam:
    For man, by the fall, lost at once his state of innocence
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ceremonies) at length to afford mankind in some degree his bread...69
There is a breathtaking, world-creating hubris in this statement — one that
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inventions are a blessing and a benefit without injuring or afflicting any’.70
And what would be mankind’s ’bread’, the rewards of its new ’empire over creation’
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much as enlightenment; the destruction of nature as much as its utilisation.
Doubts and Fears: Technology as Ontology
If Bacon could not reasonably be expected to foresee many of these developments, the idea that scientific and technological progress could be destructive did occur to him. However it was an anxiety he summarily dismissed:
    ...let none be alarmed at the objection of the arts and sciences becoming depraved to malevolent or luxurious purposes and the like, for the same can be said of every worldly good; talent, courage, strength, beauty, riches, light itself...Only let mankind regain their rights over nature, assigned to them by the gift of God, and obtain that power, whose exercise will be governed by right reason and true religion.71
By the mid-Twentieth Century, after the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, such fears could no longer be so easily wished away, as the physicist and scientific director of the Manhattan Project, J. Robert Oppenheimer recognised. He said in a 1947 lecture:
    We felt a particularly intimate responsibility for suggesting, for supporting and in the end in large measure achieving the realization of atomic weapons...In some sort of crude sense which no vulgarity, no humor, no over-statement can quite extinguish, the physicists have known sin, and this is a knowledge they cannot lose.72
Adam had fallen once more, but into a world which refused to acknowledge its
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and Descartes’ faith in mathematics to make of the Bomb a rational weapon.
Oppenheimer — who resolutely opposed the development of the hydrogen bomb — understood what the
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an unmooring quality; it finds men unprepared to deal with it.’75
Martin Heidegger questioned this mapping of natural science onto the social world in his essays
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of science for politics, knowledge for force, or force for good.
Instead, Oppenheimer saw a process frustrated by roadblocks and ruptured by irony; in
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political certainty; it turns control over ’facts’ into control over the earth.
Heidegger’s insights into this phenomena I find especially telling and disturbing — because they underline
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technology. The actual threat has already affected man in his essence.’77
This process Heidegger calls ’Enframing’ and through it the scientific mind demands that ’nature reports
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human lives are reduced to tools, obstacles, useful or obstinate matter.
This tells us much about the enduring power of crude instrumental versions of strategic thought
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of the sand and take action toward shutting down Hezbollah-land.’81
Conclusion: Violent Ontologies or Peaceful Choices?
I was motivated to begin the larger project from which this essay derives by a
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fail to question the ontological claims of political community or strategic theory.82
In the case of a theorist like Jean Bethke Elshtain, just war doctrine is
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destructive and violent way of acknowledging and dealing with conflict and difference.85
My argument here, whilst normatively sympathetic to Kant’s moral demand for the eventual abolition
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revealing and hence to experience the call of a more primal truth.’87
What I take from Heidegger’s argument — one that I have sought to extend by
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and violence as necessary policy responses, however ineffective, dysfunctional or chaotic.
The force of my own and Heidegger’s analysis does, admittedly, tend towards a
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are certainly tremendously aggressive and energetic in continually stating and reinstating its force.
But is there a way out? Is there no possibility of agency and choice
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us valuable clues to the kind of sensibility needed, but little more.
When we consider the problem of policy, the force of this analysis suggests that
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and activating a very different concept of existence, security and action.90
This would seem to hinge upon ’questioning’ as such — on the questions we put
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to end the global rule of insecurity and violence? Will our thought?

These attempts to dominate a target nation is based in a form of power over that is a violent approach to the world that must be rejected

Sjoberg 2k—Associate Professor of Political Science and affiliate faculty in Women’s Studies at the University of Florida. She has previously taught and researched at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Duke University, Boston College, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Brandeis University, and Merrimack College. She holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Gender Studies from the University of Southern California, and a law degree from Boston College.  Chair of the International Studies Association Committee on the Status of Women (Laura, "Towards a Feminist Theory of Sanctions", http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf-http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf**, chm)

Critical Redefinition of Power in the International Arena The critical redefinition of power that would
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program kept them there, just dangling a carrot just out of reach. 

These sanctions aren’t neutral but rather upheld by securitization

Sjoberg 2k—Associate Professor of Political Science and affiliate faculty in Women’s Studies at the University of Florida. She has previously taught and researched at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Duke University, Boston College, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Brandeis University, and Merrimack College. She holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Gender Studies from the University of Southern California, and a law degree from Boston College.  Chair of the International Studies Association Committee on the Status of Women (Laura, Towards a Feminist Theory of Sanctions", http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf**, chm)

The United States’ policy determination to keep sanctions in its arsenal of policy choices brings
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that Iraq could resort to "use of chemical or biological terrorism."44

The ballot is a referendum on the desirability of security logic — these sanctions are a heuristic by which we can make that decision.

Ahmed 12 – Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace 26 Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis

While recommendations to shift our frame of orientation away from conventional state-centrism toward
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of state security planning in the context of counter-terrorism operations abroad.
The intensifying problematisation and externalisation of Muslim-majority regions and populations by Western `
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the efficacy of the prevailing geopolitical and economic order is ideologically beyond question.
As much as this analysis highlights a direct link between global systemic crises, social polarisation and state militarisation, it fundamentally undermines the idea of a symbiotic link between natural resources and conflict per se. Neither ’resource shortages’ nor ’resource abundance’ (in ecological, energy, food and monetary terms) necessitate conflict by themselves.
There are two key operative factors that determine whether either condition could lead to conflict
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to externalisation of those groups, and the legitimisation of violence towards them.
Ultimately, this systems approach to global crises strongly suggests that conventional policy ’reform’ is
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of the post-carbon era through social, political and economic transformation.
Yet conventional theoretical and policy approaches fail to (1) fully engage with the
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, effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Our epistemological interrogation of Economic Engagement is key.
Duina 05, Francesco, Professor in Sociology at the University of British Columbia, Visiting Professor in the Department of Business and Politics at the Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, author of five books about social construction and economic sociology, Ph.D. from Harvard, member of the editorial boards of the Journal of European Public Policy and Economy and Society, 2005, "The Social Construction of Free Trade: The European Union, NAFTA, and Mercosur," http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8040.html)//DR. H

The starting premise of the book is that the pursuit of free trade in any
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are remarkably different creations. This book explores and accounts for their distinctiveness.
The evidence presented in the next chapters has direct implications for three topics of much
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. The focus on RTAs brings new evidence to bear on these issues.
The specific focus of the book is on two major areas of difference among RTAs
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labels should list all ingredients, or racial discrimination in hiring is acceptable.
Regional market building poses special challenges. Historically, most markets have formed slowly over
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it requires fundamental changes in subtle and sometimes implicit notions about the world.
RTA officials have responded differently to this challenge. In some areas, they have
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, if problems arise, to turn to reactive conflict-resolution mechanisms.
RTAs differ not only in the complexity of their legal architectures but also in the
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labor, medical conditions, and the use of food additives quite differently.
The second claim concerns the responses of societal organizations to regional integration. Different interest
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, the expansion of furniture manufacturers, and the internationalization of transportation departments.
In some cases, analogous organizations develop regional structures and programs across different RTAs. But those cases still see important differences across those organizations in terms of specific structures and programs. If, for instance, farmers emerge at the regional level in two RTAs, their members’ profiles and their objectives are likely to vary. Similarly, if textile companies expand internationally in two given RTAs, what exactly they produce will differ.
What helps explain these differences in law and organizational developments? The Social Construction of
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the grounds in the member states and that RTAs acquire their distinctive character.
Specifically, in the case of interventionism versus minimalism in regional law, the presence
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, and so on) that have flourished in those dominant regulatory environments.
As to the targets and content of regional law, we consider again existing legal
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boundaries of the permissible, the final character of any given regional law.
Organizational changes in RTAs also reflect existing institutional and political contexts. Those organizations that
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area, organizations adapt by expanding their operations in tandem with such law.
The evidence for these claims concerns three RTAs in Europe and the Americas: the
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important notions surrounding labor rights, yet their definitions and visions vary significantly.
We will then consider the evolution of three types of organizations in the same three
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, crucially, that those units and processes are particular to each RTA.
The argument and evidence presented in this book directly challenge the recent writing of a
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the local as a place of difference. Three strands are especially important.
Some proponents of globalization suggest that the world is becoming an increasingly homogenous place.
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, offer similar examples (Arrighi 2000; Burtless et al. 2000).
A second set of globalization theorists point to increased international cooperation. As human communities
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nation state are being eroded in favor of a global, cosmopolitan system.
A third group of proponents acknowledges that the world remains full of variation and idiosyncrasies
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people are well aware of events and systems outside of their small country.
This book challenges these visions of a global world, and especially those related to
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either be untenable or still only be achieved quite far into the future.
This book naturally aligns itself with the critics of the globalization thesis. But while
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evidence of an intriguing combination of regions with unique legal and organizational characteristics.
This book directly speaks to a second important topic: the nature of markets.
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commodities and actors involved in the exchange (Spillman 1999; Zelizer 1992).
Clearly, this book contributes directly to the idea that markets require much support to
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RTAs is likely to yield a whole array of new and exciting insights.
In addition, we should note that RTAs represent a very particular genre of market
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individuals have made, in different places, to construct their respective markets.
The book addresses a third important debate: how a particular economic ideology—in
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convergence across countries, as some observers thought it might (Boltho 1996).

Disregard claims of inevitability – only by rejecting the securitization of the affirmative can we open up space for new alternatives – realism is structurally flawed
Roberts 08 – research paper submitted at the University of East Anglia, School of Political, Social and International Studies, cites political scientists such as Fukuyama (July 10, 2008, Adrian Bua Roberts, "Contesting Neo-Realism and Liberal Idealism; Where do Hopes for a ’Perpetual Peace’ Lie?" http://www.e-ir.info/2008/07/10/contesting-neo-realism-and-liberal-idealism-where-do-hopes-for-a-E28098perpetual-peaceE28099-lie/-http://www.e-ir.info/2008/07/10/contesting-neo-realism-and-liberal-idealism-where-do-hopes-for-a-E28098perpetual-peaceE28099-lie/)  NG

War has been an omnipresent aspect of the international order since the beginning of recorded
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reduce or eliminate war the world must reach a post-capitalist stage.
THE ROOTS OF WAR
The lack of organization, technology and communication would make war unfeasible until a relatively
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another state’s ’sovereignty’, without ’Sovereignty’ war would not be necessary.
Clausewitz saw war beginning when the "weak defender" realised organised resistance was the only way of giving the "strong offender" a taste of his own medicine~3~ Conflict is seen as the main reason why men organized themselves into societies. This view that the state and war came into existence in a symbiosis is expressed in Montesquieu’s dictum –
"once in a political society, men lose their feeling of weakness whereupon their former equality disappears and the state of war begins"~4~.
This is a convincing account of war’s origins. The "state" enables war
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developments in weapons technology, began the process of consolidating "nation states".
War has had a massive influence upon the world we know, however this should not lead us to see the state and war as partners in a relationship which is necessarily equal to each. The dependence of the state upon war/conflict is not logically necessary. Even if both arose together and even if the state depended upon war to establish itself, the relationship is not necessarily perpetual. Nevertheless, ’realism’ would dispute this claim.
REALISM
Following the demise of Liberal idealism, scholars such as George Kennan, Walter Lippman
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power, the international system as its stage and states as its actors.
Morgenthau would attempt to extrapolate a science of international politics from this ’practical guide’
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"power" and "conflict" are essential to understand realism’s development.
Neo-realism emerged from a critique of "political realism" positing that "
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. To illustrate this point Waltz used the "oligopolistic market" analogy -
"within an oligopolistic market, the ability of firms to arrive at some convergence regarding prices… cannot be adequately understood either by examining negotiations among the firms or by studying their internal decision making process. Rather it is the structure of the market itself, in which a few key actors collectively hold the dominant market share… the tendency for competition is dampened through mutual adjustments over time"~10~
In the same way, state behaviour cannot be explained by internal characteristics, but is determined by the structure of the international system which (like other ’structures’) varies across three dimensions:
 "by their ordering principles, the specification of functions of formally differentiated parts and the relative capabilities of the units"~11~.
States are "ordered" by the principle of anarchy and "function" as rational power maximisers. The only remaining difference amongst states is their "relative capabilities" (power) International Relations becomes limited to analyzing the relative power between states. Changing power configurations can affect alignment and levels of conflict. Nevertheless, in an anarchic world order, competing sovereign states with different levels of power create conflict and war, which is seen as inevitable amongst sovereign states.
REALISM’S EPISTEMOLOGY
A great part of the difference between those who see war as a necessary and
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to enquiry into circumstances/events which bring about system transformation~12~.
Realism’s synchronic understanding of history views the international system as essentially unchanging, enabling the
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data", Robert Cox points out this has negative effects on neorealist historicism;
"There can be no dispute about Kenneth Waltz’s adherence to the positivist approach …  the elegance he achieves in the clarity of his theoretical statement comes at the price of an unconvincing mode of historical understanding"  Robert Cox~13~
Neorealism’s positivist approach eliminates subjectivity from consideration. Therefore, the event observed – war
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the international system, realism amputates from itself a key area of analysis.
Clear gaps in realist theory become apparent. For example realism would analyse "Imperialist
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international system itself, not the nature of the units which constitute it.
In order to account for research that has clearly favored dyadic over systemic explanations for
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a theory is more likely to fundamentally reshape neorealism rather than complement it.
Realism is essentially a-historical, its positivist epistemology degenerates history into "a mine of data illustrating the permutations and combinations that are possible within an essentially unchanging human story"~18~. Moreover, by limiting itself to analysing the structure and the effect, realism eliminates from analysis the impact subjective actors (states) have upon war and ignores the fact that changes in societal organization affect war.
An understanding of history as a process enables analysis on the effects different conditions and different forms of state have upon war. This lends itself to a rejection of positivism and adoption of "critical theory"~19~ where the role of philosophy is to change the world, not merely to interpret it-
"The real social function of philosophy lies in its criticism of what is prevalent … the chief aim of such criticism is to prevent mankind from losing itself in those ideas and activities which the existing organization of society instills into its members" Max Horkheimer~20~
Realism may not be "losing itself" in presently hegemonic ideas, a synchronic
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from it, ignoring the fact that changes in societal organization affect war.
This condemns realism to the conclusion that war is an inevitable and immutable part of
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, significantly reducing, or at least preventing the tragedy that is war.
Accusations of futile utopianism will surely be made against such a claim. However,
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. Ultimately, realism suffocates International Relations like Creationist dogma suffocates Evolutionary Science.
Exclusionary frameworks justify securitization
Brown 05 – Professor of political science at UC Berkeley (Edgework: Critical Essays on Knowledge and Politics, Wendy, Professor of Poli Sci, UC Berkeley). 

On the one hand, critical theory cannot let itself be bound by political exigency
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them bad conscience, at best it renews their imaginative reach and vigor.

the United States federal government should increase its economic engagement toward Cuba.

Tournament: TOC | Round: 1 | Opponent: Damien LL | Judge: Ehrlich, Miranda
Advantage 1 is Costs — 

Defense spending is on the brink post-sequestration — the longer we wait to check Medicare, the deeper the cuts
Heritage 11 — Ask Heritage, "Will Congress Defend the Military?," http://www.askheritage.org/will-congress-defend-the-military/, Accessed 4/17/14)DR. H

Those issues are nothing to gloss over, even though some in Washington would like
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mandated reductions create "very high risk" to national security.

Plan reduces health care prices by up to 70.
Ibarra 11 – Sociology Professor @ University of New Mexico – Roberto, "The Initiative to extend Medicare into Mexico," Health, Culture and Society: Volume 1, No. 1, http://hcs.pitt.edu/ojs/index.php/hcs/article/view/55/84,-http://hcs.pitt.edu/ojs/index.php/hcs/article/view/55/84, Accessed 4/17/14)DR. H  

In 2009, a non-profit organization called the Americans for Medicare in Mexico
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will gain new revenues and reduced expenditures, respectively.56

Costs are key – high Medicare costs trade off with aircraft carriers.
Curry 13, Tom, 10/27/13, "Budget bargainers will confront defense v. entitlements tradeoffs," http://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/budget-bargainers-will-confront-defense-v-entitlements-tradeoffs-f8C11469192, Accessed 4/17/14)DR. H

During the Vietnam War, the phrase "guns versus butter" described the clash
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cumulative costs over that period.

China’s naval capabilities are outpacing the US — causes South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan wars — US budgeting’s key
O’Rourke 4/10, Ronald, Specialist in National Defense and Maritime Forces, Congressional Research Service, 2014, "China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress," http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf, Accessed 4/21/14)DR. H

China’s naval modernization effort encompasses a broad array
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shift over time to a more distributed fleet architecture.

Taiwan war goes nuclear.
William Lowther 13 3-16, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
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arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

Current tensions ensure miscalc in the East China Sea — that escalates
Wang 12/10, Zheng, an Associate Professor in the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University in New Jersey, USA, and a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He is the author of  "Never Forget National Humiliation: Historical Memory in Chinese Politics and Foreign Relations, 2014, "How to Prevent Accidental Conflict in the East China Sea," http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/how-to-prevent-accidental-conflict-in-the-east-china-sea/, Accessed 4/21/14)DR. H

The clock starts ticking for the next crisis. With China’s announcement of the Air
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how to prevent and to manage crisis and conflict.

The United States federal government should establish a medical trade promotion strategy through the development of Medicare insurance program for American citizens living in Mexico with the Mexican Ministry of Health

Advantage 2 is Modeling

Other countries are pressing for international Medicare access – expanding Medicare to Mexico opens the door for other international health agreements
Forbes, 9– Business journal, "Medicare In Mexico," Sept 4, http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/04/mexico-medicare-retirees-personal-finance-health-care.html, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

The U.S. government should pick up the cost of health care for the elderly
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Congress to get Medicare accepted south of the border.

Demonstrating success is key – the plan spills over to broader international coverage
AARO, 9– Association of American Residents Overseas, Americans for Medicare in Mexico, A.C. (AMMAC) is a legally constituted Mexican non-profit organization dedicated to bringing Medicare coverage to eligible seniors living in Mexico. "Support sought for Demonstration Project for Medicare coverage in Mexico," http://aaro.org/index.php?option=com_content26view=article26id=144:aaro-endorses-proposal-for-medicare-demonstration-project-in-mexico26catid=23:medicare26Itemid=27, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

Demonstration Projects are the limited-scale experiments that Medicare
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difficulties encountered, and gradually extend benefits ANYWHERE."2

That boosts overall economic growth — creates medical tourist hotspots
CSIS, 10– Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Medicare in Mexico," http://csis.org/blog/medicare-mexico, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

This topic has not gone unnoticed in Mexico or the United States. In Mexico
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retirees to seek procedures at a much lower cost outside the United States.

Specifically, Eastern Europe and China would be next because of rock-bottom health care prices
Hylton, ’9– Hilary, Cites David C. Warner; professor of public affairs at UT, "Medicare Savings: Is the Answer in Mexico?," TIME, Oct 23, http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1931559,00.html, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

Resistance to the expansion of Medicare to Mexico is coming from some health-care industry
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China and Eastern Europe where health-care costs are rock bottom.

Eurozone collapse causes World War III
Gommes, 11 — former Columbia Law Review senior editor
(Thomas, publisher of Periscope Post, former corporate lawyer, "Eurozone in crisis: The death of the euro could trigger World War III," 12-9-11, www.periscopepost.com/2011/12/eurozone-in-crisis-the-death-of-the-euro-could-trigger-world-war-iii/, accessed 10-23-12, )

Eurozone in crisis: The death of the euro could trigger World War III The
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solution to problems, or at minimum an acceptable response to perceived slights.

Medical tourism offers a life vest for Cyprus’s economy
Peratikos 13, Polis Peratikos, Cyprus Health Service Promotion Board Officer, International Medical Travel Journal, "Cyprus... at the crossroads of medical tourism," http://www.imtj.com/articles/2013/cyprus-medical-tourism-30175/, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

Cyprus was one of the first entrants into the European medical tourism
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as previously mentioned generally all the countries of the EU are equally important.

Absent new sources of growth, Cyprus’s economy is terminally unsustainable — causes a global war
Rockwell 13, Lew, Chairman of the Ludwig von Mises Institute; economics institute, 3/22/13, "Could Cyprus Banking Crisis Trigger a War?" http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39600.html, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

Eric Margolis writes: Realizing they will never be a world power
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bonanza with neighboring states. But it probably won’t.

Medical tourism is key to East Asian economies
Snyder et al 2/16, 2014, Jeremy Snyder, Rory Johnston, Valorie Crooks, Krystyna Adams, Leon Hoffman, and Rebecca Whitmore are members of the Simon Fraser University Medical Research Team, "Medical tourism an uncertain prescription for Asian economies," http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2014/02/16/medical-tourism-an-uncertain-prescription-for-asian-economies/, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

Medical tourism is a practice where patients travel abroad to purchase medically
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to access cutting-edge and high-quality health services at home.

East Asian instability goes nuclear
Dibb 1 – head of the Strategic and Defense Studies Centre in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies for The Australian National University, former Deputy Secretary for Strategic Policy and Intelligence in the Australian Department of Defense and director of the Joint Intelligence Organisation (Paul, Naval War College Review, "Strategic trends: Asia at a crossroads", 54:1, ProQuest, WEA)

The areas of maximum danger and instability in the world today are in Asia,
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Regional Forum have shown themselves to be ineffective when confronted with major crises.

Specifically, Chinese economic decline causes great power war
 Kane 01 ~Thomas Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull 26 Lawrence Serewicz, Autumn, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm-http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm~~

Despite China’s problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be
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China’s government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.

Plan’s key to US economic growth
Wilson 11, US-Mexico expert at several think tanks, 11 – Christopher E. Wilson, Program Associate with the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute, where he focuses on U.S.-Mexico economic integration and border issues. He previously served as a Mexico Analyst for the U.S. Military and has also worked with the Center for North American Studies at American University and IQOM, Inteligencia Comericial, in Mexico City. Christopher completed his M.A. in International Affairs at American University, Mexico institute, Woodrow Wilson international Center for Scholars, "Mexico Institute Working Together: Economic Ties Between the United States and Mexico," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Working20Together20Full20Document.pdf, Accessed 4/16/14)DR. H

As the baby boom generation begins to hit retirement age, the U.S
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favorable demographics that do not involve migration. 

Economic decline causes war.
Royal, 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense (Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland’s (1996. 2000) theory of
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popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.

Mexican instability spills over to create other failed states in Latin America.
Manwaring 07 – (Dec. 2007, Max, General Douglas MacArthur Chair and Professor of Military Strategy at the U.S. Army War College, retired U.S. Army colonel, Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, "A CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGE TO STATE SOVEREIGNTY: GANGS AND OTHER ILLICIT TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA, EL SALVADOR, MEXICO, JAMAICA, AND BRAZIL," Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/Transnational_Criminal_Organizations.pdf)

This convoluted array of Mexican gangs, Central American Maras, Mexican cartels, and
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other nation-states within and between which the gang phenomenon operates.59 

Escalates to global WMD use.
Manwaring 05 (Max G., Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, VENEZUELA’S HUGO CHÁVEZ, BOLIVARIAN SOCIALISM, AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE, October 2005, pg. PUB628.pdf)

President Chávez also understands that the process leading to state failure is the most dangerous
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and their associated problems endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.65

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: 2 | Opponent: Pace FQ | Judge: Gjerpin, Katie

The United States federal government should implement a mediation-inclusive Bilateral Investment Treaty with Venezuela.

US-Latin American relations need to be kick started — revamped relations solve illegal immigration and climate adaptation.

Zedillo 08, Ernesto, Commission co-chair, Former President of Mexico, Brookings Institute Report, "Rethinking U.S.-Latin American Relations: A Hemispheric Partnership For A Turbulent World," pdf)DR. H

If a hemispheric partnership remains elusive, the costs to the United States and its
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to tap new markets, make new investments, and access valuable resources.
It is important to note at the outset that the term "partnership" as
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responsibilities according to its own economic and political capacities to generate shared benefits.
Today, four changes in the region have made a hemispheric partnership both possible and
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with a shared sense of responsibility and a common stake in the future.
For example, drug trafficking and its associated criminal networks have now spread so widely across the hemisphere that they can no longer be regarded as a "U.S. problem," a "Colombian problem," or a "Mexican problem." The threat posed by these networks can only be countered through coordinated efforts across producing, consuming, and transshipment countries, all of which have a shared interest in controlling the flow of
arms, money, vehicles, and drugs. The process of combating and adapting to climate change also exemplifies the need for a hemispheric partnership. All carbon-emitting societies contribute to the problem to different degrees, and all will experience its consequences. The solutions—ranging from developing alternative fuels to adapting to ecological shocks—all require sustained cooperation among the hemisphere’s countries. 

Scenario 1 is Immigration —

Cooperative measures toward reducing illegal immigration allow the effective allocation of resources toward counter-terrorist measures.

Barry 13 (Tom, January 9, 2013, Director for the TransBorder project at the Center for International Policy in Wash. DC.   "With the Resurrection of Immigration Reform We’ll Hear a Lot About Securing Our Borders, But What Does It Really Mean?" http://www.alternet.org/immigration/resurrection-immigration-reform-well-hear-lot-about-securing-our-borders-what-does-it) 

Yet rather than prioritizing focusing their intelligence gathering on likely foreign threats to the borders
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is, in effect, its strategic focus on the marijuana drug war. 

Terror’s extremely probable and nuclear use causes extinction.

Hellman, 08 ~Martin E. Hellman, Professor @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~

The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that  preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. 

Scenario 2 is Climate Change —

Climate change causes biodiversity collapse, enables massive spread of tropical diseases, collapses agriculture, and the manufacturing industry — adaptation is key.

Kloppenburg 11, Dr. Norbert, Ph.D., serves as a Member of the Managing Directors Board and Director of Financial Cooperation - Europe 26 Asian Regional Department at KfW, June 2011, "Adaptation to climate change," https://www.kfw-entwicklungsbank.de/Download-Center/PDF-Dokumente-BroschC3BCren/2011_Juni_BroschC3BCre_Klimawandel_E.pdf)//DR. H

Climate change is not a potential scenario of the future – it is already here, and its consequences are already harming people and ecosystems in many parts of the world. Developing countries and emerging economies are particularly affected. The reasons for this include their geographic location, the reduced ability of poorer countries to adapt to changing requirements, and their often strong economic dependency on particularly climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture.
Climate change is already costing billions every year. Some economies could lose up to a fifth of their gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of climate damage. However, between 40 and 70 of this damage can be averted by timely adaptation measures.
Rising sea levels mean a greater risk of flooding
During the 20th century, sea levels rose by an average of 2 mm per
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coast lines, resulting in the destruction of infrastructure and valuable arable land.
It is feared that a number of island states in the Pacific will largely be
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irrigation in agriculture. In addition, the saltwater also damages valuable farmland.
Increasing occurrences of extreme weather events and higher risk of natural disasters
The effects of climate change are clearly manifested by extreme weather events like flooding and tropical cyclones, whose strength is set to increase further still in many regions. This endangers human lives, infrastructures and ecosystems, thereby destroying the source of many people’s livelihoods.
Increasing ocean temperatures are exceeding the threshold of 27 °C earlier and earlier in
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Pakistan in the summer of 2010 which affected more than 15 million people.
Scientists also believe that heat waves and heavy rain events will occur more frequently. Heat waves can cause significant health hazards particularly in large cities. In add-ition, tropical diseases like malaria will spread to more and more regions as a result of rising temperatures.
More frequent heavy rain events will ag-gravate the problem of soil erosion in many parts of the world. This in turn leads to increased and more severe river flooding and represents a major challenge for flood protection, urban drainage, the effective-ness of sewage treatment plants and the protection of settlements against landslides and mudslides.
A gradual threat
Storms and floods are spectacular conse-quen ces of climate change which are immediately apparent. However, it is the more gradual changes of temperature and precipitation patterns which will probably be more significant in the long run. In many regions, the quantity of rainfall is already scarcely enough for the supply of drinking water as well as for agriculture or forestry, or for use in the production of energy and in the manufacturing industry.
In many cases it can be expected that due to climate change this situation will worsen. In the regions around the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, north-eastern parts of Brazil and Central America, experts anticipate water availability to decline in some cases by over 20 by the end of the century. As a conse-quence, drinking water will become scarce, long-term efforts to combat desertification will be endangered, and ecosystems will be permanently damaged or even destroyed.
Scientists fear that the decline in water avail-ability in some rainforest regions, which are of significant importance for global biodiversity, will result in a shift in the variety of species and cause important species to become extinct.
Another gradual but very real consequence is the melting of glaciers, particular in the
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impact on drinking water supplies, agri-culture and hydroelectric power generation.

Biodiversity loss causes extinction.

Suurküla 06 - Chairman of Physicians and Scientists (Jaan, M.D., for Responsible Application of Science and Technology (PSRAST), "World-wide cooperation required to prevent global crisis; Part one— the problem", Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Science and Technology, 6/24, http://www.globalissues.org/article/171/loss-of-biodiversity-and-extinctions)

The world environmental situation is likely to be further aggravated by the increasingly rapid,
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coming 50 years. The most important cause was found to be climate change 

Agricultural collapse causes extinction.

Lugar 4 – U.S. Senator (Richard, http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)

In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
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that contribute to global instability and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
With the world population expected to grow from 6 billion people today to 9 billion
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that the growing world population will need vastly more basic food to eat.
Complicating a solution to this problem is a dynamic that must be better understood in
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we will have to produce an annual average of 25 tonnes per hectare.
Can we possibly boost output that much? Well, it’s been done before. Advances in the use of fertilizer and water, improved machinery and better tilling techniques combined to generate a threefold increase in yields since 1935 – on our farm back then, my dad produced 2.8 to 3 tonnes per hectare. Much US agriculture has seen similar increases.
But of course there is no guarantee that we can achieve those results again.
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research will generate the innovations that will be necessary to feed the world.
The United States can take a leading position in a productivity revolution. And our success at increasing food production may play a decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet.

Mutations ensure diseases cause extinction.

Darling 12 (David, Astronomer, "9 Strange Ways the World Really Might End", Seattle’s Big Blog, 3-18, http://blog.seattlepi.com/thebigblog/2012/03/18/9-strange-ways-the-world-really-might-end/?fb_xd_fragment, Washington State University)

Our body is in constant competition with a dizzying array of viruses, bacteria,
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marsupial in Australia) the very survival of our species could be threatened.

Scenario 3 is Iran Money Laundering —

Lack of US engagement toward Venezuela allows Venezuela to freely finance Iranian nuclear prolif — only the plan stops that.

Noriega ’12 Roger F. Noriega was ambassador to the Organization of American States from 2001-2003 and assistant secretary of state from 2003-2005. He is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute – "After Chávez, the Narcostate" – April 11^th –
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/11/after_chavez_the_narcostate?page=0,0

Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez has tried for 10 months to conceal the fact that he
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our own neighborhood, "leading from behind" is not an option. 

Iran Prolif causes Mideast nuclear arms race — results in nuclear war.
Allison ’6 Graham, Prof of Government at Harvard, "The Will to Prevent", Fall, Harvard International Law Review, page lexis 

Meanwhile, Iran is testing the line in the Middle East. On its current
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us to have control of weapons of destruction that can threaten our existence."

Iran nuclear proliferation triggers Middle Eastern arms races — those make accidents inevitable and go nuclear.

Edelman ’11 (Eric –Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 26 Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)
*Yes arms races —

1. Ideology — Saudi Arabia wants to preserve its stance as the leading Muslim nation.
   2. Security — Middle East countries feel threatened by a nuclear Iran.

There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant outside support
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Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

Reject impact defense — miscalc is uniquely likely in the Middle East post-prolif.

Russell 09 James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, ’9 (Spring) "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East" IFRI, Proliferation Papers, ~2326, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf 

Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1)
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the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world. 

Venezuela’s creating regional fragmentation away from Washington.

Shifter 13 – President at Inter-American Dialogue ("So Long, Chávez Where Does This Leave Venezuela?", 3/5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139014/michael-shifter/so-long-chavez) EL

Since 1999, however, when the recently deceased Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez came to
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doubts about how meaningful a role such institutions can play in the region.

Bolsters US credibility in the region and makes regional coalitions possible.

Griffin, 13 – Professor of Finance McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin, John, "Engage with Venezuela," The Harvard Crimson, 3 April 2013, http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/4/3/Harvard-Venezuela-Chavez-death/)

Diplomatically, positive engagement with Venezuela would be a major step toward building American credibility
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vinegar—it’s high time we started trying to catch them with honey.

Develops information sharing and communication channels

Welsh and Schneider 13 – Nancy Welsh is the William Trickett Faculty Scholar and Professor of Law at Penn State Law and Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a Professor Of Law at Marquette University Law School ("The Thoughtful Integration of Mediation into Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration", Spring) EL

3. Recommended "Default" Model of Mediation for the Investor-State Context
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, but they must do so explicitly and agree upon such a departure.

The international investment regime is approaching a tipping point.

Welsh and Schneider 13—Nancy Welsh is the William Trickett Faculty Scholar and Professor of Law at Penn State Law and Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a Professor Of Law at Marquette University Law School ("The Thoughtful Integration of Mediation into Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration", Spring) EL

Whether states are embracing mediation by developing their¶ own corps of quasi-mediators
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, to a discussion of this research and theories of¶ procedural justice.

Venezuela’s leading a domino effect of alternative systems to the ICSID.

ADR Resources 07—private institution dedicated solely to providing specialized information on international ADR, and to promoting a better understanding and use of alternative dispute resolution mechanisms to resolve civil and business disputes ("No more arbitration. The ICSID faces a credibility crisis", 5/14, http://adrresources.com/adr-news/457/no-arbitration-icsid-faces-credibility-crisis) EL
*Bolivia’s not in OPEC. *Venz creating alts to BITs with other countries.

Argentina has long been fed-up with the Word Bank, but it has
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to listen when it comes to arbitration has indeed come. Or gone?

The procedural justice component of mediation increases investor confidence.

Welsh and Schneider 13 – Nancy Welsh is the William Trickett Faculty Scholar and Professor of Law at Penn State Law and Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a Professor Of Law at Marquette University Law School ("The Thoughtful Integration of Mediation into Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration", Spring) EL

B. Procedural Justice Empirical research reveals that decision-making and dispute resolution procedures
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pool of mediators, to provide for accountability pursuant to dispute system design. 

Investment credibility controls capital flows and is a prerequisite to global economic growth

D’Agostino 12 (Joseph D’Agostino J.D. Candidate 2012, U of Virginia School of Law; "Rescuing International Investment Arbitration: Introducing Derivative Actions, Class Actions, And Compulsory Joinder"; Virginia Law Review, Vol.  98; http://www.virginialawreview.org/content/pdfs/98/177.pdf; JRS)

THE rapidly expanding network of international investment arbitration ("IIA") has reached a state
AND
has become a vital aspect of the debate about the international political economy."

Economic decline causes war.

Royal, 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense (Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland’s (1996. 2000) theory of
AND
popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.

Independently, FDI solves escalation of war.

Desbordes and Vicard 05— Rodolphe Desbordes is a Reader in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde and Vincent Vicard is an economist at the Banque de France (6/22, "Being nice makes you attractive: the FDI - international
political relations nexus", TEAM-University of Paris I Panth¶eon-Sorbonne, http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2005/Papers/Vicard.pdf) EL

International Relations theory highlights the importance of taking into account the potential reversal causal relationship
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Hence, it is likely that FDI and interstate political relations are jointly determined8

====Most conclusive evidence proves Maduro says yes.====
O’Neil 8/20, Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at Council on Foreign Relations, Shananananan, 8/20/13, "Maduro’s Limited Foreign Policy Agenda," http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/08/20/guest-post-maduros-limited-foreign-policy-agenda/)//DR. H

Perhaps even worse for Maduro is his responsibility to keep Venezuela’s troubled economy afloat.
AND
and not foreign policy) will receive the lion’s share of his attention.
To top it off, Venezuela’s "twenty-first century socialism model" that
AND
long term, its growing buzz has detracted attention from Venezuela’s preferred models.
This is all not to say that Venezuela’s foreign policy can be counted out—
AND
not be in the style that Chávez or Maduro would have wished.’

Tournament: NDCA | Round: 5 | Opponent: Niles West CK | Judge: Samuels, Phillip

(Always read red)

Welcome to the United States — where cultures that refuse to accept our mindset become threats and we respond by placing economic sanctions upon them — our culture bribes us to accept Cuba as an inferior yet threatening nation — this prevents us from seeking solutions to true oppression and violence.

Schoultz, 10 – Professor of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill (Lars, "Benevolent Domination: The Ideology of US Policy Towards Cuba", NG)

The United States and Cuba have not had normal diplomatic relations since January 3,
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This is absolutely one of the ?nest things in human history.’’31 

====Current Sanctions imposed upon Cuba fulfill the prophecy of US exceptionialism — we must control the South and punish the countries that disobey our laws — disads are epistemologically flawed.====
Lamrani 03, Doctor of Iberian and Latin American Studies at the University Paris-Sorbonne Paris-IV He is a member of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research on Contemporary Iberian worlds (CRIMIC) from the University of Paris-Sorbonne Paris IV , and the Interdisciplinary Group on Hispanic Caribbean and Latin America (GRIAHAL) at the University of Cergy Pontoise. (Salim, U.S. Economic sanctions against Cuba: objectives of an imperialist policy, http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Caribbean/USEconomicSanctions_Cuba.html, chm—DR. H) Note: the date was derived from a chart this fine French fellow had in this article, the last date of which was 2003, and it said "votes until now" or something—charlie  

The economic sanctions imposed on Cuba by the United States are unique in view of
AND
would not be controversial if the society we live in was intellectually free.

The sanctions are in place not only to end anti-Imperialist movements both domestically and abroad but also to expand the cycle of enemy-creation.

Blum 11/8—Foreign Policy Journal, author, historian, and renowned critic of U.S. foreign policy. He is the author of numerous books, including "Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II" and "Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower" (William, 2013, The United Nations Vote on the Cuba Embargo – 22 Years In a Row, chm—DR. H)

For years American political leaders and media were fond of labeling Cuba
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instituted the suffocating embargo against its everlasting enemy.

That requires an endless recreation of existential threats.

Ruži? 13—researcher and author for the Central and Eastern European Online Library (Maja, Securitization Outside the Liberal Political Context: Did Cuba Matter in the Cuban Missile Crisis?, http://www.sintezis.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Securitization-Outside-the-Liberal-Context.pdf-http://www.sintezis.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Securitization-Outside-the-Liberal-Context.pdf, chm)

After 1990s the international relations scholarship, once dominated by the traditional notion
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is presented as an existential threat that requires the implementation of emergency measures. 

Absent our interrogation, extinction becomes inevitable alongside the rendering of human lives into tools.
Burke 07 – Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations in the University of New South Wales (Anthony, Theory 26 Event, Volume 10, Issue 2, 2007, "Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason," Project MUSE)

This essay develops a theory about the causes of war — and thus aims to
AND
to end the global rule of insecurity and violence? Will our thought?

These attempts to dominate a target nation is based in a form of power over that is a violent approach to the world that must be rejected

Sjoberg 2k—Associate Professor of Political Science and affiliate faculty in Women’s Studies at the University of Florida. She has previously taught and researched at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Duke University, Boston College, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Brandeis University, and Merrimack College. She holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Gender Studies from the University of Southern California, and a law degree from Boston College.  Chair of the International Studies Association Committee on the Status of Women (Laura, "Towards a Feminist Theory of Sanctions", http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf-http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf**, chm)

Critical Redefinition of Power in the International Arena The critical redefinition of
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program kept them there, just dangling a carrot just out of reach. 

These sanctions aren’t neutral but rather upheld by securitization

Sjoberg 2k—Associate Professor of Political Science and affiliate faculty in Women’s Studies at the University of Florida. She has previously taught and researched at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Duke University, Boston College, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Brandeis University, and Merrimack College. She holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Gender Studies from the University of Southern California, and a law degree from Boston College.  Chair of the International Studies Association Committee on the Status of Women (Laura, Towards a Feminist Theory of Sanctions", http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf**, chm)

The United States’ policy determination to keep sanctions in its arsenal of policy choices
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that Iraq could resort to "use of chemical or biological terrorism."44

Vote AFF to epistemologically interrogate the security logic the United States federal government used to justify its economic sanctions on Cuba — The ballot is a referendum on the desirability of security logic — these sanctions are a heuristic by which we can make that decision.

Ahmed 12 – Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace 26 Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis

While recommendations to shift our frame of orientation away from conventional
AND
effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Our epistemological interrogation of Economic Engagement is key.
Duina 05, Francesco, Professor in Sociology at the University of British Columbia, Visiting Professor in the Department of Business and Politics at the Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, author of five books about social construction and economic sociology, Ph.D. from Harvard, member of the editorial boards of the Journal of European Public Policy and Economy and Society, 2005, "The Social Construction of Free Trade: The European Union, NAFTA, and Mercosur," http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8040.html)//DR. H

The starting premise of the book is that the pursuit of free trade in any
AND
convergence across countries, as some observers thought it might (Boltho 1996).

Disregard claims of inevitability – only by rejecting the securitization of the affirmative can we open up space for new alternatives – realism is structurally flawed
Roberts 08 – research paper submitted at the University of East Anglia, School of Political, Social and International Studies, cites political scientists such as Fukuyama (July 10, 2008, Adrian Bua Roberts, "Contesting Neo-Realism and Liberal Idealism; Where do Hopes for a ’Perpetual Peace’ Lie?" http://www.e-ir.info/2008/07/10/contesting-neo-realism-and-liberal-idealism-where-do-hopes-for-a-E28098perpetual-peaceE28099-lie/-http://www.e-ir.info/2008/07/10/contesting-neo-realism-and-liberal-idealism-where-do-hopes-for-a-E28098perpetual-peaceE28099-lie/)  NG

War has been an omnipresent aspect of the international order since the beginning of recorded
AND
International Relations like Creationist dogma suffocates Evolutionary Science.
Exclusionary frameworks justify securitization
Brown 05 – Professor of political science at UC Berkeley (Edgework: Critical Essays on Knowledge and Politics, Wendy, Professor of Poli Sci, UC Berkeley). 

On the one hand, critical theory cannot let itself be bound by political exigency
AND
them bad conscience, at best it renews their imaginative reach and vigor.

Tournament: TOC | Round: 6 | Opponent: Thomas Jefferson KW | Judge: Fisher, Matt
This year, the resolution has posed a crucially important question "Should the US continue its economic embargo on Cuba."  In response, debaters have taken and defended countless different positions.  For some, the embargo keeps Cuba marginalized and economically stagnant, harming an innocent people.  For others, the same embargo enacts justified retribution on a dictatorial regime responsible for endless suffering.  For others, the embargo is best understood as a strategic tool wielded by the United States to serve its international interests.

Yet from each of these discussions, something profound is missing.  We all know what the embargo is, what it does, and think we know what we should do about it.  But as the year closes we still lack a nuanced historical and cultural understanding of why the embargo still exists.  This is not a merely descriptive question to be answered objectively, but depends itself on our positionality within modern American society.

Instead of treating the embargo like a problem to be solved, we begin with the embargo as a cultural artifact to be understood.  Lars Schoultz, Professor of Political Science at UNC explains:
Schoultz, 10 – Professor of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill (Lars, "Benevolent Domination: The Ideology of US Policy Towards Cuba")

The United States and Cuba have not had normal diplomatic relations since January 3,
AND
W. Bush the presidency with a ?ve-vote electoral college margin. 

Yet even the preceding explanation is missing something – the complex network of interests that ensures the continuance of the embargo cannot be reduced to discrete dimensions of rational self-interest, but is instead grounded in a ideology that dismisses Cuban and Latin America people as racially inferior and subhuman.

Schoultz continues
Schoultz, 10 – Professor of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill (Lars, "Benevolent Domination: The Ideology of US Policy Towards Cuba")

We should not make too much of this off-the-cuff response,
AND
a day or of a year, but of a longer period.’’20 

As white Americans, a failure to understand and appreciate this history would not be abnormal but rather expected – the social structures and institutional contexts within which we live operate to purge us of our critical faculties and inculcate aa dogmatic devotion to orthodox neoliberal ideology.  Similarly, as white Americans it is our responsibility to investigate the realities behind such ideologies.

The history of the embargo must directly inform our understanding of its present function and durability – retracing its continuity through time is a useful pedagogical intervention.
Lamrani 03 – (2003, date from latest citation, Salim, Doctor of Iberian and Latin American Studies at the University Paris-Sorbonne Paris-IV, member of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research on Contemporary Iberian worlds (CRIMIC) from the University of Paris-Sorbonne Paris IV , and the Interdisciplinary Group on Hispanic Caribbean and Latin America (GRIAHAL) at the University of Cergy Pontoise, "U.S. Economic sanctions against Cuba: objectives of an imperialist policy," http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Caribbean/USEconomicSanctions_Cuba.html) 

The economic sanctions imposed on Cuba by the United States are unique in view of
AND
would not be controversial if the society we live in was intellectually free.

The rhetoric and ontology of national insecurity that undergirds the status quo’s justification for the embargo is an existential threat – generates environmental destruction, endless enemy creation and structural violence, and massive economic inequality – engaging with history to break down our assumptions about the way decisions are made and the way the world works is imperative.
Burke 07 – Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations in the University of New South Wales (Anthony, Theory 26 Event, Volume 10, Issue 2, 2007, "Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason," Project MUSE)

This essay develops a theory about the causes of war — and thus aims to
AND
more sustainable, peaceful and non-violent global rule of the political.

The United States federal government should remove its economic embargo on Cuba.

The 1AC and the plan represent an instance of critical ethnography in the context of the Cuban Embargo.  Consciously making connections between the micro-level of individual beliefs and the macro-level of social structures that actualize those beliefs in the form of education is academically and pedagogically valuable.  Directing anthropology inward toward American security culture allows us to deploy unique methodological tactics currently lacking from academic work on security.
Goldstein 10 – (2010, Daniel, Associate Professor of Anthropology at Rutgers University, "Toward a Critical Anthropology of Security," Current Anthropology Volume 51, Number 4, August 2010)

Despite the ubiquity of public security–related concerns— both in the United States
AND
and the bases of democratic society in countries around the world.

States in Latin America are uniquely affected by the intersection of security and neoliberalism – a critical anthropological approach is critical to take advantage of local knowledge in the region and connect it to broader structures of oppression.
Goldstein 10 – (2010, Daniel, Associate Professor of Anthropology at Rutgers University, "Toward a Critical Anthropology of Security," Current Anthropology Volume 51, Number 4, August 2010)

By the time of the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11,
AND
of transnational corporations and lenders with the demand for rights from national citizens.

This is uniquely valuable in the context of educational context – breaking down the neoliberalization and securitization of the public sphere is key.
Giroux 4/23 – (2014, Henry, PhD, Director of the McMaster University Center for Research in the Public Interest, Distinguished Visiting Professor at Ryerson University in Toronto, Ontario, interview with Victoria Harper, "Neoliberalism, Democracy and the University as a Public Sphere," http://zcomm.org/znetarticle/neoliberalism-democracy-and-the-university-as-a-public-sphere/)

In what ways does neoliberalism threaten higher education?
AND
polity. As an adjunct of the academic-military-industrial complex,

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: 3 | Opponent: Chattahoochee LW | Judge: Oddo, Eric

2AC

The alternative triggers war.

Doran 99  (Charles, Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Survival, 1999, Summer, p. 148-9, proquest)

The conclusion, then, is that the probability of major war declines for some
AND
contributes to the spiral of uncertainty that leads in the end to war.

Insecurity and disorder aren’t inevitable—careful future planning has been enormously effective. Debates amongst citizens are key to assessing probability and effectively planning.

Kurasawa, 04 (Professor of Sociology, York University of Toronto, Fuyuki, Constellations Volume 11, No 4, 2004). 

Moreover, keeping in mind the sobering lessons of the past century cannot but make
AND
that will continue to inflict needless suffering upon future generations if left unchallenged. 

The economy cannot be securitized – there is no friend/enemy distinction in the economic sector
William 3 (Michael C., Chairholder in the Faculty Research Chair in International Politics, professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa "Words, Images, Enemies: Securitization and International Politics", International Studies Quarterly, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/doi/10.1046/j.0020-8833.2003.00277.x/full)//AMV

A second of McSweeny’s criticisms illustrates the point equally well. McSweeny argues that if
AND
the hallmarks of securitization, they remain distinct from issues of security.26 

Changing discourse doesn’t eliminate security dilemmas
Copeland, 2000  (Dale, professor of government at University of Virginia, International Security 25:2, Fall 2000, ingenta)

Although the road ahead for Wendt’s neoconstructivism is still long, Social  Theory of International
AND
cannot be talked away through better discursive practices. It must be  faced. 

Turn—rejecting strategic predictions of threats makes them inevitable—decision makers will rely on preconceived conceptions of threat rather than the more qualified predictions of analysts
Fitzsimmons, 2007 ~Michael, Washington DC defense analyst, "The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning", Survival, Winter 06-07, online~

But handling even this weaker form of uncertainty is still quite challeng- ing.
AND
, such decisions may be poorly understood by the decision-makers themselves. 

Threats are real and our disaster discourse mobilizes people to deal with them
Kurasawa 4
(Fuyuki Kurasawa, Associate Professor of Sociology at York University in Toronto, Canada, 2004, Constellations Vol 11, No 4, 2004, Cautionary Tales: The Global Culture of Prevention and the Work of Foresight    http://www.yorku.ca/kurasawa/Kurasawa20Articles/Constellations20Article.pdf)

In addition, farsightedness has become a priority in world affairs due to the appearance
AND
-political action, spurring citizens’ involvement in the work of preventive foresight. 

CO2 emissions are past the tipping point.

Hillman 07 ~Mayer Hill is a senior fellow at the Policy Studies Institute, The Suicidal Planet: How To Prevent Global Climate Catastrophe, p. 25-6~

The effects of climate change cannot quickly be reversed by reducing or even eliminating future
AND
levels of greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere, additional warming will occur.

Venezuelan economic instability causes oil shocks and spills over.

Noriega 11/26, 2013, Roger, former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, former US ambassador to the OAS, assistant secretary of state under President George W. Bush. He is an American Enterprise Institute visiting fellow and managing director of Vision Americas LLC, which represents US and foreign clients, "Venezuela headed for chaos," http://nypost.com/2013/11/26/venezuela-headed-for-chaos/)//DR. H

The United States imports about half the Venezuelan petroleum that it did when Chávez was elected in 1998, but that’s still 9 percent of our foreign oil purchases. Plus, an implosion of Venezuela’s economy — or, God forbid, prolonged civil warfare — will roil the international oil markets and destabilize the region when the US economy is sputtering.
What’s worse, in the last decade, Venezuela has become a narco-state, with dozens of senior officials and state-run enterprises complicit in the lucrative cocaine trade. The regime also is an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, which may find their own ways to exploit chaos in Venezuela.
Geography makes the bloodbath in Syria all but invisible to Americans, but Venezuela is a three-hour flight from Miami and No. 3 in the world in social networking. The US public will see photos and videos of innocent demonstrators mowed down in the street. Moreover, in the Americas, the United States will be expected to lead.

Those cause a nuclear war.

Qasem 7, Islam Yasin  a doctoral candidate in the Department of Politics and Social Sciences at the University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF) in Barcelona, MA in International Affairs from Columbia, July 9, 2007, "The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage," online: http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm

Recognizing the strategic value of oil for their national interests, superpowers will not hesitate
AND
the chances of using nuclear weapons in pursues of national interests are high. 

Latin American instability causes great power wars.

Grygiel 09 ~Jakub, George H.W. Bush Assoc Prof, IR, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced Int’l Studies, Johns Hopkins U, "Vacuum Wars: The Coming Competition Over Failed States," American Interest, Jul/Aug 2009, http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=622~~jap

The prevailing view of failed states is, to repeat, not wrong, just
AND
quickly in order to limit the possibility of intervention by other great powers.

Venezuela’s key — weak domestic institutions multiply the effect on the ICSID.

Lee and Johnson 12—Chia-yi Lee, Noel P. Johnson is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis and a graduate associate at the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy at Washington University ("Improving Reputation BIT by BIT: Bilateral Investment Treaties, Domestic Institutions, and Foreign Accountability", http://npjohnston.wustl.edu/Research_files/MPSApaper_BIT,207.11.12.pdf) EL

In the literature on foreign direct investment (FDI), both domestic institutions and international
AND
hypotheses, and section 5 presents the empirical results. Section 6 concludes.

Appeasement now.

Investor News 11/21, 2013, "Obamalateral Disarmament — U.S. To Cut ICBM Squadron," http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/112113-680264-obama-planning-to-close-icbm-squadron.htm)//DR. H

Defense: Breaking yet another promise, this one to Congress, the administration jeopardizes our national security with plans to eliminate an entire squadron of intercontinental ballistic missiles and destroy its silos.
Yet another example of what President Obama meant in 2012 when he promised Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea, that after his re-election he would have more "flexibility" on defense issues, comes on the news that an ICBM squadron would be scrapped to comply with the New START Treaty — even as both the Russians and Chinese deploy new ballistic missiles.
A document prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and obtained by the Washington Free Beacon maps out a strategy to eliminate an ICBM squadron — and destroy its missile silos — by Dec. 5, 2017.
The military would begin removing ICBMs next October, after an environmental assessment is complete, and the silo elimination would begin in May 2016.
The fact is, as the Heritage Foundation notes, the U.S. does not need to eliminate an ICBM squadron to meet New START’s limits. The State Department’s Oct. 1 fact sheet says the U.S. must dismantle 109 of its deployed ICBMs, deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and deployed heavy bombers, and remove another 138 warheads.
Heritage notes the U.S. has already reduced its deployed warheads by 112 and that destroying an ICBM squadron to comply with New START is unnecessary.
Further cuts, if needed, could be made by removing the missiles and placing the silos in reserve status.
The document says the reductions are necessary to "meet the New START Treaty compliance date by closing an ICBM squadron and eliminating the associated Launch Facilities." But that’s not true. New START does not require destruction of the silos.
So why the unnecessary move to cut our offensive missile deterrent force after the administration has scrapped Phase IV of our European-based missile defense, which was the proposed replacement for the ground-based interceptors and missile radars that were scuttled in a betrayal of our Polish and Czech allies?
The president has said he dreams of a world without nuclear weapons, which critics point out seems to mean only a world without U.S. nukes.
He sees U.S. military supremacy as an anachronistic example of the American exceptionalism for which he has apologized so many times.
To that end, in his June 2013 Berlin speech, President Obama spoke of his desire to unilaterally reduce deployed U.S. nuclear forces by up to one-third.

Plan’s key to Obama cred.

Boudin 9 (Chesa, Rhodes Scholar with degrees from Yale and Oxford Universities. Currently attending Yale Law School, he is coauthor of The Venezuelan Revolution: 100 Questions—100 Answers and coeditor of Letters from Young Activists, Why Obama Should Meet With Hugo Chavez, http://upsidedownworld.org/main/venezuela-archives-35/1671-why-obama-should-meet-with-hugo-chavez, 1/18/9)

Finally, there is a fourth point that should appeal to Chávez’s harshest critics.
AND
from meetings with Representative Delahunt (D-MA) and other congressmen.

Credibility’s irrelevant.

Fettweis 08 – Professor of political science at Tulane (Christopher, "Credibility and the War on Terror," Winter 2008, Political Science Quarterly)Bwang
*Sociology and Evidence proves.

Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable to identify cases in which high credibility
AND
a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably failed.40

Plan solves Indo-Pak war.

Goel and Goel 8/31— Ashish Goel is an LLM candidate at King’s College London. Harish Goel is pursuing business and finance at Xavier Labour Relations Institute, Jamshedpur, India (2013, "India–US bilateral investment treaty going nowhere", http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/08/31/india-us-bilateral-investment-treaty-going-nowhere/) EL

The India–US bilateral investment treaty negotiations have taken a hit after India insisted
AND
, the government has not learnt enough from the Posco and ArcelorMittal fiasco.

Budget deal.

UPI, 12/1/13 ("Immigration reform to play second-fiddle to budget this winter"
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2013/12/01/Immigration-reform-to-play-second-fiddle-to-budget-this-winter/UPI-73801385923737/~~23ixzz2miHoBDOk)

A Republican U.S. congressman said Sunday that movement on immigration reform is unlikely this winter until a new budget is passed.
Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., said on ABC’s "This Week" that the budget was the top priority issue on Capitol Hill and immigration reform was on the back burner for now.
"Not until we get a budget done," Cole said. "Literally I think the most important thing right now is to make sure we don’t have a government shutdown, to make sure that we deal with the debt ceiling."
Cole said a shutdown was unlikely at this point, but he acknowledged a spending plan will require a long process.
"Around here, we can’t walk and chew gum," said Cole. "Let’s just chew gum for a little while. And right now, chewing gum is getting a budget deal and making sure that we don’t default when the debt ceiling comes around."

GOP divisions.

Mascaro, 11/29/13 (Lisa, Los Angeles Times, "GOP promise of immigration reform fades a year after election"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-immigration-gop-20131130,0,3679179.story~23ixzz2miIKGPQE)

Changing the way the party talks about immigration is about all House Republicans have to show for their efforts over the last 11 months — and even that effort has notable exceptions.
Though Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio has insisted recently that immigration reform is not dead, the House is about to finish the year without progress on a topic that is a priority to Latino voters, an electorate the GOP desperately needs to woo before the next presidential race.
In fact, the House’s most visible immigration-related action was a measure to defund an Obama administration program to defer deportations of young immigrants, a vote that increased Latino animosity even though it failed to become law.
The legislative sputter stems from Republicans’ focus on the 2014 midterm election. As lawmakers burnish their conservative credentials for potential hard-right primary challenges, they are betting they will have time to court Latinos before the 2016 election.
But the inaction raises questions about whether Republicans have learned from their electoral losses last year and can broaden the party’s base to appeal to more minorities. And it’s not only immigration reform. GOP promises to be more inclusive to women and gays also have produced few results.
"It’s foolhardy," said Alex Nowrasteh, a policy analyst at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute. "On the one hand, Republicans have improved their rhetoric and they’ve moved much more toward embracing immigration reform. On the other hand, immigration reform was passed in the Senate and was dropped in the House of Representatives, and that makes them look like they’re opposed to reform, which in a way, they are."
In last year’s presidential election, Mitt Romney — whose comment about "self-deportation" infuriated immigration advocates — lost the Latino vote by a 44-percentage-point margin, the largest deficit of any Republican presidential candidate since the Clinton era. Alarmed GOP insiders jump-started congressional talks toward a bipartisan immigration overhaul, and Boehner announced the time had come for Congress to act.
But the speaker has refused to take up the Senate’s sweeping bipartisan overhaul of immigration laws, even though it would probably pass the House with Democratic support; nor are House Republicans expected to vote on their own measures any time soon.
Divisions within the House GOP have left the party at a standstill. More Republican lawmakers than ever — nearly two dozen, by some counts — support the cornerstone of an immigration overhaul, which is a path to citizenship for immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
But many more oppose legalization efforts. Most House Republicans represent conservative districts, configured to include few minority voters. The handful of exceptions, including several from California, have already come under pressure in their districts, but most have little interest in the subject.
"There’s just no cohesion there yet," said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has tried to persuade Republicans to take action. "All I hope is that they realize that the issue is not going away — that we need to act on it — that we’d be glad to consider any proposals or ideas they have."
Hedging the political risks, House GOP leaders continue working behind the scenes with lawmakers to draft a series of bills that could be brought forward next year.
Together, they would resemble the main ingredients of the comprehensive Senate bill.
One, from Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, would provide a path to citizenship for young people brought to the U.S. illegally as minors. Another would allow adult immigrants to apply for legal status as border security is ramped up.
President Obama has extended a hand to Boehner several times by saying he would be open to the House GOP’s piecemeal approach rather than the Senate’s big package.
"It’s Thanksgiving; we can carve that bird into multiple pieces," Obama said during a speech in San Francisco on Monday. "A drumstick here, breast meat there. But as long as all the pieces get done — soon — and we actually deliver on the core values we’ve been talking about for so long, I think everybody is fine with it."
House Republicans, though, have resisted most White House initiatives. Many Republicans prefer to use the months ahead investigating what went wrong with the healthcare law. And some House members seem to have missed the memo on new talking points.

Nuke deterrence fails.

Wilson 1/13/13 -senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (1/13/2013, "The Myth of Nuclear Necessity," http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/14/opinion/the-myth-of-nuclear-necessity.html?pagewanted=all)JCP

There is also a small group of people who still believe fervently in nuclear weapons
AND
extremely dangerous and not very useful — are the wave of the past.

Either Venezuelan engagement’s popular —

Spetalnick ’13
Matt Spetalnick – White House correspondent who has covered news on four continents for Reuters, from Latin American coups and drug wars – Reuter’s – March 6^th, 2013 – "Despite new hopes, U.S. treads cautiously after death of Venezuela’s Chavez" – http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/uk-venezuela-chavez-usa-idUKBRE92504920130306

Washington’s challenge will be to figure out how far to go in seizing the opening
AND
page after a long period of strained U.S.-Venezuelan ties.

Or the plan destroys the GOP — that’s key to Obama’s agenda.

Dickerson 13 (John, Slate, Go for the Throat21, www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/01/barack_obama_s_second_inaugural_address_the_president_should_declare_war.single.html)

On Monday, President Obama will preside over the grand reopening of his administration.
AND
the party that will leave it, at least temporarily, in disarray. 

1AR

Their ev is just rhetoric — pragmatism outweighs.

Parraguez, et al 10/12 – Luisa Parraguez is a professor and researcher at the Global Studies Department of Tecnológico de Monterrey’s Mexico City Campus, Francisco Garcia Gonzalez is a Tecnológico de Monterrey graduate and research coordinator at Mexico’s Auditoría Superior de la Federación. Joskua Tadeo is an international relations student and research assistant at Tecnológico de Monterrey’s Mexico City Campus (2013, "Latin America: Anti-US in Words, Not Deeds", http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/316260-latin-america-anti-us-in-words-not-deeds/) EL

MEXICO CITY—The Latin American blogosphere held its breath when Bolivian President Evo Morales’s
AND
America’s heavy flows of trade with the world´s most powerful economy.

No uniqueness — Iran appeasement.

Schwartz 11/25, Sharona, 2013, "There Are A Lot Of People Comparing Obama’s New Iran Deal With A Significant (And Very Bad) Moment In History," http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/11/25/there-are-a-lot-people-comparing-obamas-new-iran-deal-with-a-significant-and-very-bad-moment-in-history/)//DR. H

Both Israeli lawmakers and conservative pundits have compared the deal over Iran’s nuclear program secured in Geneva this weekend with the Munich Agreement of 1938 in which European nations agreed to allow Nazi Germany to annex parts of Czechoslovakia. Of the deal, then British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared his infamous phrase, "Peace for our time." A year later, Adolf Hitler invaded Poland, revealing the folly of Chamberlain and his allies’ appeasement policy.
"Winds of Munich are blowing from Geneva," Israeli Tourism Minister Uzi Landau told the Jerusalem Post. Right-wing Member of Knesset Moshe Feiglin wrote, "The Iranian version of the Munich Agreement was just signed in Geneva. Like Czechoslovakia in 1938, which was not party to the Western powers’’ discussions that effectively brought about its demise _{Israel today watches from the sidelines as its existential interest is being sacrificed by the West."
Member of Knesset Ayelet Shaked said, "As Chamberlain said: Everything would have been alright if Hitler hadn’t lied to me."
Besides the Israeli politicians, an array of conservative American voices has been invoking the words "Munich," "appeasement" and "Chamberlain" as analogies for the Obama administration’s quest for a deal with Iran, while bloggers have been posting side-by-side photos of the Geneva and Munich meetings and photo-shopped images of Obama and Chamberlain.
"Nothing good happens late at night, and America just had a modern-day Neville Chamberlain moment," former Congressman Allen West wrote.
"President Obama has just empowered the number one state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, to pursue its nuclear goals and objectives," West added. "This is not diplomacy, this is abject surrender and appeasement. Iran loses nothing, not a single facility, not any capability to enrich uranium, but we have conceded the one best non-military option: economic sanctions."}

Both case studies and quantitative studies disprove your shenanigans.

Huth 97 Paul, Autumn. Director of Research at CIDCM as well as a professor in the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland. "Reputations and Deterrence: a Theoretical and Empirical Assessment," Security Studies 7.1.

THE NUMBER of studies which have either focused on reputations as an explanatory variable,
AND
were essentially unaffected by U.S. behavior in the Third World.

Anarchy makes the formation of reputation or credibility impossible —- pursuit of it only provokes more conflict.

Shiping Tang, Jan-March 05. Associate Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, Co-director of the Sino-American Security Dialogue. "Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict," Security Studies 14.1.

This article goes further than Mercer and argues that reputation cannot form in conflicts because
AND
sets a baseline image for both adversaries and allies, and reputation becomes impossible

Tournament: NDCA | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Glenbrook South CM | Judge: Wunderlich, Carly Lucas-Bolin, Alyssa Bricker, Brett
1AC — Investment Regime

CONTENTION 1 IS THE INVESTMENT REGIME — 

The international investment regime is approaching a tipping point.
Welsh and Schneider 13—Nancy Welsh is the William Trickett Faculty Scholar and Professor of Law at Penn State Law and Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a Professor Of Law at Marquette University Law School ("The Thoughtful Integration of Mediation into Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration", Spring) EL

Whether states are embracing mediation by developing their¶ own corps of quasi-mediators
AND
, to a discussion of this research and theories of¶ procedural justice.

Venezuela’s leading a domino effect of alternative systems to the ICSID.
ADR Resources 07—private institution dedicated solely to providing specialized information on international ADR, and to promoting a better understanding and use of alternative dispute resolution mechanisms to resolve civil and business disputes ("No more arbitration. The ICSID faces a credibility crisis", 5/14, http://adrresources.com/adr-news/457/no-arbitration-icsid-faces-credibility-crisis) EL
*Bolivia’s not in OPEC. *Venz creating alts to BITs with other countries.

Argentina has long been fed-up with the Word Bank, but it has
AND
to listen when it comes to arbitration has indeed come. Or gone?

The procedural justice component of mediation increases investor confidence.
Welsh and Schneider 13 – Nancy Welsh is the William Trickett Faculty Scholar and Professor of Law at Penn State Law and Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a Professor Of Law at Marquette University Law School ("The Thoughtful Integration of Mediation into Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration", Spring) EL

B. Procedural Justice Empirical research reveals that decision-making and dispute resolution procedures
AND
pool of mediators, to provide for accountability pursuant to dispute system design. 

Investment credibility controls capital flows and is a prerequisite to global economic growth
D’Agostino 12 (Joseph D’Agostino J.D. Candidate 2012, U of Virginia School of Law; "Rescuing International Investment Arbitration: Introducing Derivative Actions, Class Actions, And Compulsory Joinder"; Virginia Law Review, Vol.  98; http://www.virginialawreview.org/content/pdfs/98/177.pdf; JRS)

THE rapidly expanding network of international investment arbitration ("IIA") has reached a state
AND
has become a vital aspect of the debate about the international political economy."

Economic decline causes war.
Royal, 10 – Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense (Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)

Second, on a dyadic level. Copeland’s (1996. 2000) theory of
AND
popularity, are statistically linked to an increase in the use of force.

Independently, FDI solves escalation of war.
Desbordes and Vicard 05— Rodolphe Desbordes is a Reader in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde and Vincent Vicard is an economist at the Banque de France (6/22, "Being nice makes you attractive: the FDI - international
political relations nexus", TEAM-University of Paris I Panth¶eon-Sorbonne, http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2005/Papers/Vicard.pdf) EL

International Relations theory highlights the importance of taking into account the potential reversal causal relationship
AND
Hence, it is likely that FDI and interstate political relations are jointly determined8

1AC — Plan
The United States federal government should implement a mediation-inclusive Bilateral Investment Treaty with Venezuela.

1AC — Relations

CONTENTION 2 IS RELATIONS —

US-Latin American relations need to be kick started — revamped relations solve illegal immigration and climate adaptation.
Zedillo 08, Ernesto, Commission co-chair, Former President of Mexico, Brookings Institute Report, "Rethinking U.S.-Latin American Relations: A Hemispheric Partnership For A Turbulent World," pdf)DR. H

If a hemispheric partnership remains elusive, the costs to the United States and its
AND
require sustained cooperation among the hemisphere’s countries. 

Scenario 1 is Immigration —
Cooperative measures toward reducing illegal immigration allow the effective allocation of resources toward counter-terrorist measures.
Barry 13 (Tom, January 9, 2013, Director for the TransBorder project at the Center for International Policy in Wash. DC.   "With the Resurrection of Immigration Reform We’ll Hear a Lot About Securing Our Borders, But What Does It Really Mean?" http://www.alternet.org/immigration/resurrection-immigration-reform-well-hear-lot-about-securing-our-borders-what-does-it) 

Yet rather than prioritizing focusing their intelligence gathering on likely foreign threats
AND
is, in effect, its strategic focus on the marijuana drug war. 

Terror’s extremely probable and nuclear use causes extinction.
Hellman, 08 ~Martin E. Hellman, Professor @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~

The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
AND
assume that  preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. 

Scenario 2 is Climate Change —
Climate change now causes biodiversity collapse, enables massive spread of tropical diseases, collapses agriculture, and the manufacturing industry — adaptation is key.
Kloppenburg 11, Dr. Norbert, Ph.D., serves as a Member of the Managing Directors Board and Director of Financial Cooperation - Europe 26 Asian Regional Department at KfW, June 2011, "Adaptation to climate change," https://www.kfw-entwicklungsbank.de/Download-Center/PDF-Dokumente-BroschC3BCren/2011_Juni_BroschC3BCre_Klimawandel_E.pdf)//DR. H

Climate change is not a potential scenario of the future
AND
impact on drinking water supplies, agri-culture and hydroelectric power generation.

Biodiversity loss causes extinction.
Suurküla 06 - Chairman of Physicians and Scientists (Jaan, M.D., for Responsible Application of Science and Technology (PSRAST), "World-wide cooperation required to prevent global crisis; Part one— the problem", Physicians and Scientists for Responsible Application of Science and Technology, 6/24, http://www.globalissues.org/article/171/loss-of-biodiversity-and-extinctions)

The world environmental situation is likely to be further aggravated by the increasingly rapid,
AND
coming 50 years. The most important cause was found to be climate change 

Agricultural collapse causes extinction.
Lugar 4 – U.S. Senator (Richard, http://www.unep.org/OurPlanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html)

In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning
AND
decisive humanitarian role in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet.

Mutations ensure diseases cause extinction.
Darling 12 (David, Astronomer, "9 Strange Ways the World Really Might End", Seattle’s Big Blog, 3-18, http://blog.seattlepi.com/thebigblog/2012/03/18/9-strange-ways-the-world-really-might-end/?fb_xd_fragment, Washington State University)

Our body is in constant competition with a dizzying array of viruses, bacteria,
AND
marsupial in Australia) the very survival of our species could be threatened.

The plan’s key to overall relations–

1. Venezuela’s creating regional fragmentation away from Washington.
   Shifter 13 – President at Inter-American Dialogue ("So Long, Chávez Where Does This Leave Venezuela?", 3/5, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139014/michael-shifter/so-long-chavez) EL

Since 1999, however, when the recently deceased Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez came to
AND
doubts about how meaningful a role such institutions can play in the region.

2. Bolsters US credibility in the region and makes regional coalitions possible.
Griffin, 13 – Professor of Finance McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin, John, "Engage with Venezuela," The Harvard Crimson, 3 April 2013, http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/4/3/Harvard-Venezuela-Chavez-death/)

Diplomatically, positive engagement with Venezuela would be a major step toward building
AND
vinegar—it’s high time we started trying to catch them with honey.

3. Develops information sharing and communication channels
Welsh and Schneider 13 – Nancy Welsh is the William Trickett Faculty Scholar and Professor of Law at Penn State Law and Andrea Kupfer Schneider is a Professor Of Law at Marquette University Law School ("The Thoughtful Integration of Mediation into Bilateral Investment Treaty Arbitration", Spring) EL

3. Recommended "Default" Model of Mediation for the Investor-State Context
AND
but they must do so explicitly and agree upon such a departure.

Venezuela says yes —

1. Oil proves antagonism is just rhetoric.
   PBS 2/25/14, "Maduro sends mixed messages about U.S.-Venezuela relationship," http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/maduro-mixed-messages-us-venezuela-relations/, Accessed 2/26/14)DR. H

We really are getting mixed messages,
AND
Venezuela is the fourth biggest supplier, I think, to the United States, and that really says it all.

3. Desperation.

Graef 4/2, Aileen, staff writer for UPI, quotes Maduro, 2014, "Maduro asks U.S. not to impose sanctions in Venezuela in op-ed", http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2014/04/02/Maduro-asks-US-not-to-impose-sanctions-in-Venezuela-in-op-ed/8481396470110/-http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2014/04/02/Maduro-asks-US-not-to-impose-sanctions-in-Venezuela-in-op-ed/8481396470110/, accessed 4/7/14)HH

"I hope that the American people, knowing the truth, will decide that Venezuela
AND
forward. We welcome anyone who sincerely wants to help us reach these goals."

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Chattahoochee IP | Judge: Boyce, Tucker Oddo, Eric Jordan, Shunta

1AC

Plan: The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba.

Contention 1 is Multilateralism

Reliance on unilateralism will collapse US leadership and cause global wars with weapons of mass destruction

Montalván, 10 - a 17-year veteran of the U.S. Army including multiple combat tours in Iraq, master’s of science from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism (Luis, "Multilateralism is Essential for Peace in the 21st Century" Huffington Post, 4/23, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/luis-carlos-montalvan/multilateralism-is-essent_b_550332.html)

Unilateralism is the wrong approach for American Diplomacy. There is nothing to suggest its
AND
us. Now is the time to create rather than divide common ground.

Unilateralism is unsustainable and drives allies away – multilateralism promotes band-wagoning and international coalitions, strengthening the US-led system

Ikenberry and Kupchan 04 – Ph.D. in international relations from Oxford, Associate Professor of International Relations at Georgetown, Senior Fellow and Director of Europe Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (John Ikenberry and Charles Kupchan, "Liberal Realism: The Foundations of a Democratic Foreign Policy," National Interest (Fall 2004))

It is misguided, however, to assume that America’s preponderant power, when combined
AND
deployed in the exclusive pursuit of national self-interest does the opposite.
The Bush Administration’s grand strategy rests on a second geopolitical misconception: that U.
AND
power, as they rise, array their strength against the United States.
Finally, the Bush Administration has overestimated the advantages of military superiority and mistaken brute
AND
. policy do not have the military wherewithal to stand in America’s way.
Although it is correct that other countries are not forming alliances against the United States
AND
its current course, it will enjoy military supremacy, but little else.
FROM THE perspective of liberal realism, management of the global balance of power would
AND
the costs of unilateral action usually far exceed the costs of seeking consensus.
Second, liberal realism entails moving with—rather than against—the secular diffusion
AND
rise, but the ends to which it will use its growing strength.
Third, liberal realism rests on a multidimensional understanding of power, sensitive to the
AND
and to make disaffected allies again feel like stakeholders in the international system.

US leadership is unsustainable without a highly visible commitment to multilateralism

Lake, 10– Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., "Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)//NG

The safeguarding of US authority requires multilateralism that is broader and certainly deeper than in
AND
own self-interest, lead the way to a new world order.

First, repeal would represent a commitment to multilateralism for the international community

Burgsdorff 09 – Ph. D in Political Science from Freiburg University, EU Fellow at the University of Miami (Sven Kühn von, "Problems and Opportunities for the Incoming Obama Administration", http://aei.pitt.edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/11047/1/vonBurgsdorfUSvsCubalong09edi.pdf)//NG

In addition, the US needs to improve its international human rights reputation which was  
AND
it would be interpreted by the international community as steps  towards effective multilateralism.

Second, the plan fosters a credible conflict resolution model– status quo policies risk disengagement and pressures risk destabilizing Cuba

Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, "UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA," 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)  NG

At the international political level, President Obama sees resuming relations with Cuba as a
AND
of a "new beginning" in U.S.-Cuba relations.
While dismissing Cuba’s immediate security threat to the U.S., we cannot ignore
AND
back to our punitive approaches to U.S. diplomacy towards Cuba.
On the other hand, consider that foreign diplomacy achieves a breakthrough under Raul’s Cuba
AND
continue the embargo is reached, international support would be easier to garner.
Almost 21 years since the wall fell in Berlin, it is time to chip away at the diplomatic wall that still remains between U.S. and Cuba. This paper will further define our interests in Cuba and why President Obama should continue his quest for renewed diplomatic relations with Cuba. It will discuss potential risks associated with retaining the current 50-year diplomatic policy and give some broad suggestions regarding a new U.S. – Cuba foreign policy.
Policy and National Interest
Present U.S. policy towards Cuba is economic isolation imposed via embargo to
AND
Cuba policy, past opportunities and ultimate failure over the past 50 years.
From 1959 to1964, beginning with President Eisenhower but shaped primarily by the Kennedy Administration
AND
by 1974, 45 of Cuba’s exports came from western governments.7
The period 1965-1972, although officially endorsing the previous administration’s tough stance,
AND
" in 1980 intensified this opposition and quickly derailed Carter’s initiatives in Congress.
As President Reagan took office in 1980, U.S. – Cuba relations
AND
Administrations made no significant concessions to Cuba and status quo between countries remained.
The last meaningful opportunity for change occurred after the fall of the Berlin Wall and
AND
allow third country U.S. companies from trading with Cuba.15
By the time President Clinton came to office, momentum had already shifted in Cuba’s
AND
tighten the noose failed terribly and only succeeded in further alienating both governments.
The second Bush Administration did little to engage Cuba and after September 11, 2001, was completely engrossed in the War on Terror. U.S. policy towards Cuba has changed little in 50 years. Although the embargo continues to fail despite our best efforts to tighten it, our policy has remained steadfast and the U.S. is no closer to normalizing relations with Cuba.
A History of Anger and Distrust
After 50 years, deep-seated distrust and anger exists between the U.
AND
conditions for diplomatic success in future U.S. – Cuba relations.
Experts argue over who’s started the dispute between nations: was it the Cuban Agrarian
AND
encourage the long-term changes U.S. wants in Cuba.
The embargo itself remains a perpetual albatross that continues to undermine any real diplomatic progress
AND
.S. had succeeded in isolating Cuba from its western traders.20
Tightening the noose placed extraordinary economic pressure on Cuba considering U.S. multilateral
AND
, and Asian countries participated in Cuba’s largest ever annual trade fair."26
Castro’s interest in improving U.S. - Cuba relations was perhaps the greatest
AND
now largely ineffective bilateral embargo served only to increase animosity between both countries.
It is difficult to quantify, but essential to note, that U.S
AND
U.S. national interests and not the legacy of Fidel Castro.
Another important pitfall is to exploit democracy as a precondition for diplomacy and economic engagement
AND
28 The recommendation then focuses largely on steps to pursue a democratic Cuba.
To separate security and stability from democratic pursuits in Cuba could benefit both causes.
AND
generation to open dialogue with Cuba without the democratic preconditions tied to negotiations.
As we pursue diplomatic relations with Cuba we should not expect full disclosure, immediate
AND
is needed until Cuba has the confidence to commit to further diplomatic relations.
Current U.S.-Cuba Policy Analysis
Understanding the deep-seated animosity and distrust that continues to fuel U.S. - Cuba tensions will aid us in properly analyzing the feasibility, acceptability and suitability (FAS) of current and future U.S. policy with Cuba. Identifying FAS applications to diplomacy, information, military, economic, finance, intelligence and law enforcement (DIME-FIL) will highlight weaknesses in current U.S. – Cuba relations that can be modified for future improvement.
The logical question with regards to current U.S. – Cuba policy is
AND
. to pursue the current course there is no evidence it will succeed.
How acceptable is it to U.S. foreign policy? There are three
AND
. acceptability is necessary to achieve U.S. ends in Cuba.
Several embargo refinements over the years like the Libertad Act have further tightened restrictions on
AND
, our efforts to impose embargo restrictions are unacceptable tradeoffs for homeland security.
In the final analysis, U.S. – Cuba policy is not sustainable
AND
foregone diplomatic engagement and chosen coercive economic power as our only political tool.
Does Cuba Pose A Security Threat to the U.S.?
Let’s begin by asking this question: can we afford to escort commerce through Caribbean
AND
are definite advantages to having healthy regional partnerships to deal with regional problems.
While economic pressure has failed to bring about government change, it could trigger a
AND
not exist for real change in U.S. – Cuba relations.
Proposed U.S.-Cuba Policy Analysis
If today marks President Obama’s "new strategy" towards Cuba we must begin with U.S. National interests in the broader Latin American context. Over the past 50 years our approach has been germane to Cuba and not the larger Latin American construct. In so doing we have isolated Cuba from Latin America for coercive reasons yes, but also for the very democratic principles we hoped Cuba would follow.
The State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs (covers Canada and Cuba) has
AND
conditions and exposing them to the democratic enticements we hope they will emulate.
Achieving Congressional approval will be difficult although not impossible in the present economic recession.
AND
these to the American public before the media or his opposition defines these.
We’ve established that coercive means have failed to achieve democracy and economic stability in Cuba
AND
U.S. shepherding, lead them to a more representative government.
If we accept that reestablishing relations with Cuba is the first real step to a
AND
to allow time to reap success or mitigate failure before the next elections.
The U.S. cannot afford to miss another opportunity to normalize relations with Cuba. A Cuba without Fidel is an opportunity – whether it is Raul or his replacement in 2013. The U.S. must lay the foundation today for renewed U.S. Cuba relations. Delaying could also signal the contrary to Raul Castro suspiciously awaiting the true purpose of recent U.S. concessions.
While a long term goal may be to influence change in government, it cannot
AND
the restoration of trust that must occur before complete reciprocation can be expected.
Conclusion
Today, 20 years have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall – it’s
AND
Cuba. Under these conditions, diplomacy has a better chance to flourish.
If the Cuban model succeeds President Obama will be seen as a true leader for
AND
decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.

Changing Cuba policy uniquely key – it’s highly symbolic of the US attitude towards the entire region

Sweig and Bustamante 13 - Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; Ph.D. candidate in Latin American history at Yale University (Julia E. and Michael J,  Cuba After Communism, Foreign Affairs, Jul/Aug2013, Vol. 92, Issue 4

The geopolitical context in Latin America provides another reason the U.S. government
AND
people and U.S. national interests would benefit as a result.

That bolsters influence-allowing the US to lead multilateral forums- Latin relations uniquely key to effective leverage

Sabatini and Berger 12 – Christopher Sabatini is editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. Ryan Berger is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas(Christopher/Ryan, "Why the U.S. can’t afford to ignore Latin America" 6/13/12, CNN/Global Public Square, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america/)//AD

 Speaking in Santiago, Chile, in March of last year, President Obama
AND
S. "backyard" that is outside broader, global strategic concerns.

Multilateralism leads to greater power sharing and international cooperation, resolving conflict

Pouliot 11 — Professor of Political Science at McGill University (Vincent Pouliot, "Multilateralism as an End in Itself," International Studies Perspectives (2011) 12, 18–26)NG

Because it rests on open, nondiscriminatory debate, and the routine exchange of viewpoints
AND
that further strengthen the impetus for multilateral dialog. Pg. 21-23 

Multilateralism solves inevitable Asian transition wars which go nuclear

Kugler, 6 – Professor of World Politics at Claremont Graduate University (Jacek, "The Asian Ascent: Opportunity for Peace or Precondition for War?", http://sobek.colorado.edu/~~lewiso/Kugler20-20The20Asian20Ascent.pdf) NG

Given the fundamental importance of demographic and economic forces in establishing the roster of states
AND
mid-century. The research summarized here suggests this is true even in
in the face of the enormous costs that reasonably would be anticipated from a nuclear war.

Solves Indo-Pak war which goes nuclear

Greg Chaffin 11, Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, "Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia," online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia

The greatest threat to regional security (although curiously not at the top of most
AND
lead to all-out war between the two that could quickly escalate.

Contention 2 is Cuban transition:

Cuban reforms are inevitable but the loss of external investment risks economic and social collapse – offering normal trade relations is vital

Ashby, 13 - Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. He served in the U.S. Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration as Director of the Office of Mexico and the Caribbean and acting Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the Western Hemisphere (Timothy, "Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States – The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises" 3/29/13, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)//AD

Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and
AND
-way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.

The unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts US-Cuban relations and fosters a stable transition – prevents overstretch

Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, "Time for a New Cuba Policy" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)

The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
AND
Cuba that guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the

Plan removes the biggest "crutch" of Cuban economic dependency

CSG ’13 (Cuba Study Group, Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba February 2013, http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032)

The primary consequences of Helms-Burton and related statutory provisions have been to isolate
AND
that the United States may finally develop a coherent policy toward the Island. 

Collapse leads to extinction

Yoo 2005 – professor of law at UC Berkeley School of Law, visiting scholar at AEI (John, Northwestern University International Colloquium, "Failed states", http://www.law.northwestern.edu/colloquium/international/Yoo.pdf, WEA)

Failed states pose perhaps the most dangerous threat to both American national security and international
AND
lack of economic development requires some answers to the problem of failed states.

Independently increases risk of terrorism and makes conflicts in hotspots around the globe more likely

Gorrell, 5 - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074  

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
AND
in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Terror’s extremely probable and nuclear use causes extinction.

Hellman, 08 ~Martin E. Hellman, Professor @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~

The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that  preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. 

Hotspots escalate into nuclear conflict and extinction

Bosco 06- a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine (David July 06 "Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III" http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06211/709477-109.stm_)

The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the
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But it’s not hard to conjure ways that today’s hot spots could ignite.
Consider the following scenarios:
Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon
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against Israel — and they eventually yield, triggering a major regional war.
Missiles away: With the world’s eyes on the Middle East, North Korea’s Kim
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, the world’s superpower and the newest great power are nose to nose.
Loose nukes: Al-Qaida has had Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in its sights for years, and the organization finally gets its man. Pakistan descends into chaos as militants roam the streets and the army struggles to restore order. India decides to exploit the vacuum and punish the Kashmir-based militants it blames for the recent Mumbai railway bombings. Meanwhile, U.S. special operations forces sent to secure Pakistani nuclear facilities face off against an angry mob.
The empire strikes back: Pressure for democratic reform erupts in autocratic Belarus. As protesters mass outside the parliament in Minsk, president Alexander Lukashenko requests Russian support. After protesters are beaten and killed, they appeal for help, and neighboring Poland — a NATO member with bitter memories of Soviet repression — launches a humanitarian mission to shelter the regime’s opponents. Polish and Russian troops clash, and a confrontation with NATO looms.
As in the run-up to other wars, there is today more than
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not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.

Contention 3 is solvency:

Policy won’t change absent the plan

Wilkinson, 13 – chair of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba (Stephen, " What Will a New Generation of Leadership Mean for Cuba?" 3/6, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=3226pubID=3254)

A: Stephen Wilkinson, chairman of the International Institute for the Study of Cuba
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fact that waiting for the Castros to die is a waste of time."

Normal Trade Relations is vital – no trade occurs without it

French, 9 – editor of and a frequent contributor to The Havana Note. She has led more than two dozen research trips to Cuba (Anya, "Options for Engagement A Resource Guide for Reforming U.S. Policy toward Cuba" http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Cuba/USPolicy/options-for-engagement.pdf)

the path to "normal" trade relations If the United States were to lift
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years, as both countries would need to adopt statutory and regulatory changes. 

Unilateral lifting crucial - Cuba will use a condition to veto the plan

Ratliff, 9 - Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and a member of the Board of Advisors of the Institute’s Center on Global Prosperity. He is also a Research Fellow and Curator of the Americas Collection at the Hoover Institution (William, "Why and How to Lift the U.S. Embargo on Cuba", 5/7,
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2496)

How has the embargo failed? It has not brought down the Castro brothers,
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that it will rid us of a demeaning, hypocritical and counterproductive policy.

2AC

Easing the embargo stimulates U.S. economy – keeping it in place hurts businesses

Safran, 12 -Master of Science in Global Affairs (with distinction) at New York University
(Brian, "End the Cuban Embargo", 2012, http://brian-safran-4.quora.com/End-the-Cuban-Embargo-Brian-Safran, google scholar) KW

Those that support the embargo often make the claim that as such a small Caribbean
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indeed have the potential to benefit from a liberalization of trade with Cuba.

Only unconditional affs are topical.

Smith 5 — Karen E. Smith, Professor of International Relations and Director of the European Foreign Policy Unit at the London School of Economics, 2005 ("Engagement and conditionality: incompatible or mutually reinforcing?," Global Europe: New Terms of Engagement, May, Available Online at http://fpc.org.uk/fsblob/484.pdf, Accessed 07-25-2013, p. 23)

First, a few definitions. ’Engagement’ is a foreign policy strategy of building
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or of ’oxygen’: economic activity leads to positive political consequences.19
’Conditionality’, in contrast, is the linking, by a state or international
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change in another country, conditionality more of a top-down strategy.

The alternative triggers war.

Doran 99  (Charles, Professor of International Relations at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, Survival, 1999, Summer, p. 148-9, proquest)

The conclusion, then, is that the probability of major war declines for some
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contributes to the spiral of uncertainty that leads in the end to war.

Insecurity and disorder aren’t inevitable

Kurasawa, 04 (Professor of Sociology, York University of Toronto, Fuyuki, Constellations Volume 11, No 4, 2004). 

Moreover, keeping in mind the sobering lessons of the past century cannot but make
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that will continue to inflict needless suffering upon future generations if left unchallenged. 

The economy cannot be securitized – there is no friend/enemy distinction in the economic sector

William 3 (Michael C., Chairholder in the Faculty Research Chair in International Politics, professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa "Words, Images, Enemies: Securitization and International Politics", International Studies Quarterly, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/doi/10.1046/j.0020-8833.2003.00277.x/full)//AMV

A second of McSweeny’s criticisms illustrates the point equally well. McSweeny argues that if
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the hallmarks of securitization, they remain distinct from issues of security.26 

Changing discourse doesn’t eliminate security dilemmas

Copeland, 2000  (Dale, professor of government at University of Virginia, International Security 25:2, Fall 2000, ingenta)

Although the road ahead for Wendt’s neoconstructivism is still long, Social  Theory of International
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cannot be talked away through better discursive practices. It must be  faced. 

Turn—rejecting strategic predictions of threats makes them inevitable

Fitzsimmons, 2007 ~Michael, Washington DC defense analyst, "The Problem of Uncertainty in Strategic Planning", Survival, Winter 06-07, online~

But handling even this weaker form of uncertainty is still quite challeng- ing.
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, such decisions may be poorly understood by the decision-makers themselves. 

Threats are real

Kurasawa 4
(Fuyuki Kurasawa, Associate Professor of Sociology at York University in Toronto, Canada, 2004, Constellations Vol 11, No 4, 2004, Cautionary Tales: The Global Culture of Prevention and the Work of Foresight    http://www.yorku.ca/kurasawa/Kurasawa20Articles/Constellations20Article.pdf)

In addition, farsightedness has become a priority in world affairs due to the appearance
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-political action, spurring citizens’ involvement in the work of preventive foresight. 

Price decline inevitable

Penn Energy 8/22 – News agency that reports the latest energy industry news and research for oil and gas, power generation and renewable energy, cites empirics, the EIA, and the August Short-Term Energy Outlook, (Editorial Staff, August 22, 2013, "EIA: Brent crude oil prices to decline through end of 2013", http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2013/08/eia-brent-crude-oil-prices-to-decline-through-end-of-2013.html)//HH

Disruptions to global crude oil and liquid fuels production reached nearly 2.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in July 2013 (Figure 1), the highest level since at least January 2009. During this same period, global refinery crude oil runs reached their expected 2013 peak. Combined, these developments helped push Brent spot prices to an average of 24108 per barrel in July, above the 24102-24103-per-barrel average from April through June.
However, this upward price movement was likely muted in part by growing non-
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barrel in September, and 24102 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
Disruptions to production in Iraq and Libya have had a significant effect over the summer
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of the country’s Bonny Light grade were disrupted by work on key pipelines.
Outages in non-OPEC member countries as well as record-high global refinery
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markets, contributed almost a quarter of the total non-OPEC outages.
The tightness in light sweet crude oil supply resulting from the combination of production outages
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1 million bbl/d in August, reducing supplies available for export.
In September, an expected reduction in refinery purchases of crude oil should help to
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bbl/d from the third and second quarters of 2013, respectively.

China solves Russian oil prices

RT 9/10 – a Russian news channel which brings the Russian view on global news, cites empirics, (RT Business, September 10, 2013, "PetroChina considering 2410 billion Russian gas investment", http://rt.com/business/china-russia-gas-investment-647/)//HH

China’s state-owned gas major is reportedly examining a 2410 billion investment in Russian gas fields. If realised, the deal would mark PetroChina’s biggest purchase abroad.
PetroChina, a branch of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), is looking to spend at least 2410 billion to pick up a minority share in Rosneft and Gazprom-operated gas fields in Siberia, Bloomberg reported, citing its sources.
The two countries are seeking to complete a deal that would see Russia supply as much as 68 billion cubic meters of gas a year, helping to meet the energy needs of Asia’s biggest economy.
People close to the deal said the oil field acquisition has been in the works for nearly 10 years.
A slump in European demand has made China, the world’s biggest consumer, a key trade partner for Russia, which has the world’s largest natural resources reserves. In March Russian state-owned oil major Rosneft said it would triple supplies to China to 1 million barrels a day.
This is just the latest in a string of China-Russia energy negotiations, with an unprecedented 24270 billion Rosneft oil deal announced in June and a 38 billion cubic meter per year Gazprom gas supply deal signed at the G20 summit in St. Petersburg.
Oil producers from the Middle East, Russia, Africa and Latin America are all competing for a bigger share of China’s growing market as demand for imported oil falls in the US and Europe, and Russia seems to be ahead in the race.
Already a dominant force in Iraqi oil fields, PetroChina is also in talks with Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil company, to develop the West Qurna field, which could potentially produce 500,000 barrels of oil in 2014.

Russia not dependent on oil

Melik, 12 – BBC Reporter (James, "Russia Moves to Diversify Economy With Energy Projects", BBC, 7/4/12, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18622834)

Twenty miles west of Moscow, a new technology race, rather like the space
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leaving because they are fed up with corruption and the weight of bureaucracy.

Link non-unique – the US already lifted agricultural sanctions against Cuba

Perales et al. 10 – Senior Program Associate of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center (José Raúl, "The United States and Cuba: Implications of an Economic Relationship," Wilson Center, August 2010, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/LAP_Cuba_Implications.pdf)//Bwang

The last decade has been marked by a significant growth in economic ties between the
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the many benefits to a deeper U.S. Cuban economic relationship.

Seed vault solves any crop loss

Magness 7/10- reporter (Judy, "Arctic Seed Vault Preserves the World’s Agricultural Supply", The Suit, July 10^th, 2013, http://www.thesuitmagazine.com/technology/science/22006-arctic-seed-vault-preserves-the-worlds-agricultural-supply.html)//SQR
*Svalgrad, Norway – every seed known to humankind is placed in this vault – used if agriculture collapses

In the Arctic Ocean, about 800 miles from the North Pole and midway to
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millions of seeds representing every important crop variety available in the world today."

Appeasement now.

Investor News 11/21, 2013, "Obamalateral Disarmament — U.S. To Cut ICBM Squadron," http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/112113-680264-obama-planning-to-close-icbm-squadron.htm)//DR. H

Defense: Breaking yet another promise, this one to Congress, the administration jeopardizes our national security with plans to eliminate an entire squadron of intercontinental ballistic missiles and destroy its silos.
Yet another example of what President Obama meant in 2012 when he promised Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea, that after his re-election he would have more "flexibility" on defense issues, comes on the news that an ICBM squadron would be scrapped to comply with the New START Treaty — even as both the Russians and Chinese deploy new ballistic missiles.
A document prepared by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and obtained by the Washington Free Beacon maps out a strategy to eliminate an ICBM squadron — and destroy its missile silos — by Dec. 5, 2017.
The military would begin removing ICBMs next October, after an environmental assessment is complete, and the silo elimination would begin in May 2016.
The fact is, as the Heritage Foundation notes, the U.S. does not need to eliminate an ICBM squadron to meet New START’s limits. The State Department’s Oct. 1 fact sheet says the U.S. must dismantle 109 of its deployed ICBMs, deployed submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and deployed heavy bombers, and remove another 138 warheads.
Heritage notes the U.S. has already reduced its deployed warheads by 112 and that destroying an ICBM squadron to comply with New START is unnecessary.
Further cuts, if needed, could be made by removing the missiles and placing the silos in reserve status.
The document says the reductions are necessary to "meet the New START Treaty compliance date by closing an ICBM squadron and eliminating the associated Launch Facilities." But that’s not true. New START does not require destruction of the silos.
So why the unnecessary move to cut our offensive missile deterrent force after the administration has scrapped Phase IV of our European-based missile defense, which was the proposed replacement for the ground-based interceptors and missile radars that were scuttled in a betrayal of our Polish and Czech allies?
The president has said he dreams of a world without nuclear weapons, which critics point out seems to mean only a world without U.S. nukes.
He sees U.S. military supremacy as an anachronistic example of the American exceptionalism for which he has apologized so many times.
To that end, in his June 2013 Berlin speech, President Obama spoke of his desire to unilaterally reduce deployed U.S. nuclear forces by up to one-third.

Obama’s appeasing Cuba now

Diaz-Balart ’12 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart represents the 21st congressional district in South Florida; August 21, 2012; "Mario Diaz-Balart: Obama has Pursued Policy Appeasement"; Fox News Latino; http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2012/08/21/mario-diaz-balart-obama-has-pursued-policy-appeasement-toward-castro-regime/)

These compliments – and the fact that they were not disavowed by the White House
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our position in the world, we need a change at the top.

Appeasement good

Record 8 (Jeffrey, defense policy critic and teaches strategy at the Air War College in Montgomery, Alabama, Summer 2008, "Retiring Hitler and ’Appeasement’ from the National Security Debate," http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/08summer/record.pdf) jy

Appeasement, which became a politically charged term only after¶ World War II,
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territorial or political concessions the democracies might offer him would ever be enough.

Budget deal.

UPI, 12/1/13 ("Immigration reform to play second-fiddle to budget this winter"
Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2013/12/01/Immigration-reform-to-play-second-fiddle-to-budget-this-winter/UPI-73801385923737/~~23ixzz2miHoBDOk)

A Republican U.S. congressman said Sunday that movement on immigration reform is unlikely this winter until a new budget is passed.
Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., said on ABC’s "This Week" that the budget was the top priority issue on Capitol Hill and immigration reform was on the back burner for now.
"Not until we get a budget done," Cole said. "Literally I think the most important thing right now is to make sure we don’t have a government shutdown, to make sure that we deal with the debt ceiling."
Cole said a shutdown was unlikely at this point, but he acknowledged a spending plan will require a long process.
"Around here, we can’t walk and chew gum," said Cole. "Let’s just chew gum for a little while. And right now, chewing gum is getting a budget deal and making sure that we don’t default when the debt ceiling comes around."

GOP divisions.

Mascaro, 11/29/13 (Lisa, Los Angeles Times, "GOP promise of immigration reform fades a year after election"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-immigration-gop-20131130,0,3679179.story~23ixzz2miIKGPQE)

Changing the way the party talks about immigration is about all House Republicans have to show for their efforts over the last 11 months — and even that effort has notable exceptions.
Though Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio has insisted recently that immigration reform is not dead, the House is about to finish the year without progress on a topic that is a priority to Latino voters, an electorate the GOP desperately needs to woo before the next presidential race.
In fact, the House’s most visible immigration-related action was a measure to defund an Obama administration program to defer deportations of young immigrants, a vote that increased Latino animosity even though it failed to become law.
The legislative sputter stems from Republicans’ focus on the 2014 midterm election. As lawmakers burnish their conservative credentials for potential hard-right primary challenges, they are betting they will have time to court Latinos before the 2016 election.
But the inaction raises questions about whether Republicans have learned from their electoral losses last year and can broaden the party’s base to appeal to more minorities. And it’s not only immigration reform. GOP promises to be more inclusive to women and gays also have produced few results.
"It’s foolhardy," said Alex Nowrasteh, a policy analyst at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute. "On the one hand, Republicans have improved their rhetoric and they’ve moved much more toward embracing immigration reform. On the other hand, immigration reform was passed in the Senate and was dropped in the House of Representatives, and that makes them look like they’re opposed to reform, which in a way, they are."
In last year’s presidential election, Mitt Romney — whose comment about "self-deportation" infuriated immigration advocates — lost the Latino vote by a 44-percentage-point margin, the largest deficit of any Republican presidential candidate since the Clinton era. Alarmed GOP insiders jump-started congressional talks toward a bipartisan immigration overhaul, and Boehner announced the time had come for Congress to act.
But the speaker has refused to take up the Senate’s sweeping bipartisan overhaul of immigration laws, even though it would probably pass the House with Democratic support; nor are House Republicans expected to vote on their own measures any time soon.
Divisions within the House GOP have left the party at a standstill. More Republican lawmakers than ever — nearly two dozen, by some counts — support the cornerstone of an immigration overhaul, which is a path to citizenship for immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
But many more oppose legalization efforts. Most House Republicans represent conservative districts, configured to include few minority voters. The handful of exceptions, including several from California, have already come under pressure in their districts, but most have little interest in the subject.
"There’s just no cohesion there yet," said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has tried to persuade Republicans to take action. "All I hope is that they realize that the issue is not going away — that we need to act on it — that we’d be glad to consider any proposals or ideas they have."
Hedging the political risks, House GOP leaders continue working behind the scenes with lawmakers to draft a series of bills that could be brought forward next year.
Together, they would resemble the main ingredients of the comprehensive Senate bill.
One, from Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, would provide a path to citizenship for young people brought to the U.S. illegally as minors. Another would allow adult immigrants to apply for legal status as border security is ramped up.
President Obama has extended a hand to Boehner several times by saying he would be open to the House GOP’s piecemeal approach rather than the Senate’s big package.
"It’s Thanksgiving; we can carve that bird into multiple pieces," Obama said during a speech in San Francisco on Monday. "A drumstick here, breast meat there. But as long as all the pieces get done — soon — and we actually deliver on the core values we’ve been talking about for so long, I think everybody is fine with it."
House Republicans, though, have resisted most White House initiatives. Many Republicans prefer to use the months ahead investigating what went wrong with the healthcare law. And some House members seem to have missed the memo on new talking points.

No cyberterror.

Libicki, 8/16 - Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation and a Visiting Professor at the U.S. Naval Academy (Martin C., "Don’t Buy the Cyberhype," Foreign Affairs, 8-16-13, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139819/martin-c-libicki/dont-buy-the-cyberhype?page=show, SMS)

These days, most of Washington seems to believe that a major cyberattack on U
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scrambled records would probably prove insufficient to incite a run on the banks.

Plan is politically popular and it’s perceived as a win

Hinderdael 11 M.A. candidate at SAIS Bologna Center, concentrating in American Foreign Policy and Energy, Resources, and Environment ~Klaas Hinderdael, Breaking the Logjam: Obama’s Cuba Policy and a Guideline for Improved Leadership, by http://bcjournal.org/volume-14/breaking-the-logjam.html?printerFriendly=true~~

Political Implications¶ In the wake of a markedly diminished strategic threat from the Cuban
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gains that they provide by ending the embargo and normalizing relations with Cuba.

Fights are key to passage.

Dickerson 13 (John, Slate, Go for the Throat21, www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2013/01/barack_obama_s_second_inaugural_address_the_president_should_declare_war.single.html)

On Monday, President Obama will preside over the grand reopening of his administration.
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the party that will leave it, at least temporarily, in disarray. 

1AR

Piecemeal will still be derailed on the path to citizenship – Obama’s support for piecemeal is only if the House delivers on citizenship

Nakamura, 11/21/13 (David, "Boehner: Immigration reform ’absolutely not’ dead in House" Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/11/21/boehner-immigration-reform-absolutely-not-dead-in-house/

At a forum with business executives this week, Obama said of the House approach to immigration: "If they want to chop that thing up into five pieces, as long as all five pieces get done, I don’t care what it looks like, as long as it’s actually delivering on those core values that we talk about."
Yet the sticking point remains a path to citizenship for the nation’s 12 million undocumented immigrants. While the Senate bill would allow most of those immigrants to pursue citizenship over a 13-year period, most House Republicans have not supported such a measure. House committees have deliberated over bills focused on increased border control and tougher laws governing undocumented immigrants.

Not enough time left to do piecemeal reform

Wall Street Journal, 11/20/13 ("Obama Backs Piecemeal Immigration Overhaul" http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-387090/)

Many advocates of a broad immigration overhaul have worried that Congress would pass some elements, such as business-backed measures allowing more temporary workers into the country, without setting a path to citizenship for people now in the U.S. illegally, as the Senate bill does. Mr. Obama’s statement was his most extensive about accepting a piecemeal approach.
The president said he was "optimistic" that Congress would meet the goal he set of passing an immigration bill by the end of the year.
But just after Mr. Obama spoke, Rep. Paul Ryan (R., Wis.), chairman of the House Budget Committee, poured cold water on that idea. In his own appearance before The Wall Street Journal CEO Council, Mr. Ryan said there wasn’t enough time left to tackle immigration this year.

No uniqueness — Iran appeasement.

Schwartz 11/25, Sharona, 2013, "There Are A Lot Of People Comparing Obama’s New Iran Deal With A Significant (And Very Bad) Moment In History," http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/11/25/there-are-a-lot-people-comparing-obamas-new-iran-deal-with-a-significant-and-very-bad-moment-in-history/)//DR. H

Both Israeli lawmakers and conservative pundits have compared the deal over Iran’s nuclear program secured in Geneva this weekend with the Munich Agreement of 1938 in which European nations agreed to allow Nazi Germany to annex parts of Czechoslovakia. Of the deal, then British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared his infamous phrase, "Peace for our time." A year later, Adolf Hitler invaded Poland, revealing the folly of Chamberlain and his allies’ appeasement policy.
"Winds of Munich are blowing from Geneva," Israeli Tourism Minister Uzi Landau told the Jerusalem Post. Right-wing Member of Knesset Moshe Feiglin wrote, "The Iranian version of the Munich Agreement was just signed in Geneva. Like Czechoslovakia in 1938, which was not party to the Western powers’’ discussions that effectively brought about its demise _{Israel today watches from the sidelines as its existential interest is being sacrificed by the West."
Member of Knesset Ayelet Shaked said, "As Chamberlain said: Everything would have been alright if Hitler hadn’t lied to me."
Besides the Israeli politicians, an array of conservative American voices has been invoking the words "Munich," "appeasement" and "Chamberlain" as analogies for the Obama administration’s quest for a deal with Iran, while bloggers have been posting side-by-side photos of the Geneva and Munich meetings and photo-shopped images of Obama and Chamberlain.
"Nothing good happens late at night, and America just had a modern-day Neville Chamberlain moment," former Congressman Allen West wrote.
"President Obama has just empowered the number one state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, to pursue its nuclear goals and objectives," West added. "This is not diplomacy, this is abject surrender and appeasement. Iran loses nothing, not a single facility, not any capability to enrich uranium, but we have conceded the one best non-military option: economic sanctions."}

Both case studies and quantitative studies disprove your shenanigans.

Huth 97 Paul, Autumn. Director of Research at CIDCM as well as a professor in the Government and Politics Department at the University of Maryland. "Reputations and Deterrence: a Theoretical and Empirical Assessment," Security Studies 7.1.

THE NUMBER of studies which have either focused on reputations as an explanatory variable,
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were essentially unaffected by U.S. behavior in the Third World.

Tournament: Samford | Round: 2 | Opponent: Caddo Magnet CM | Judge: Panday, Anushka

Welcome to the United States — where cultures that refuse to accept our mindset become threats and we respond by placing economic sanctions upon them — our culture bribes us to accept Cuba as an inferior yet threatening nation — this prevents us from seeking solutions to true oppression and violence.

Schoultz, 10 – Professor of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill (Lars, "Benevolent Domination: The Ideology of US Policy Towards Cuba", NG)

The United States and Cuba have not had normal diplomatic relations since January 3,
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. Our euphemism for these people and their societies is ’’underdeveloped.’’1
This ideology is not a facade masking sel?sh interests and, in particular, a
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revert to the aboriginal state in which Alvarado the Spaniard found it.’’2
The best way to begin—but only begin—to explain U.S
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States came to perceive Cuba’s revolutionary government as a threat to its interests.
For three of the past ?ve decades, roughly from 1960 to 1990, the
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keep potential adversaries as far away as possible, and Cuba is close.
’’We will bury you,’’ Nikita Khrushchev boasted in 1956, just as
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an unacceptable challenge to the primordial U.S. interest in security.
The Cuban Revolution also attacked substantial economic interests. The U.S. government
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it—a full-court press by U.S. diplomats.
But most investors of Robert Kleberg’s generation wrote off their losses decades ago, and
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Havana’s harbor. It was the ?rst signi?cant trade with Cuba since 1963.
Cubans apparently liked what they bought, and soon the invisible hand of supply and
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business leaders hoping to convince Cubans to use their port for food shipments.
These visits were but a prelude to the main event in 2003: a privately
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major market for U.S. corn, wheat and soybeans.’’4
So here we are, at a time when national security of?cials no longer have
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lose two; Florida has twenty-seven and will probably gain two).
At ?rst, Cuban immigrants were politically impotent, but soon they began to take
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-fashioned way, with campaign contri- butions and bloc voting.6
And CANF did this at a propitious moment: it had spent the 1980s honing
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is that we look to the rest of the world like idiots.’’8
Then came Elián González, the ?ve-year-old boy found clinging to
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W. Bush the presidency with a ?ve-vote electoral college margin.
Since then, the question has been: When will Cuban Americans begin to vote
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imme- diately allow unlimited family travel and remittances to the island.’’
When implemented in 2009, this relaxation of the embargo’s travel and remittance provisions more
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hijacked boat in the Straits of Florida and returned the hijackers to Cuba.
Enough is enough, wrote ninety-eight prominent Cuban Americans, taking out an
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-line Cuban American base and probably contributed to his win in Florida.
Both George Bush and Barack Obama understood the importance of Flor- ida’s Cuban Americans
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up on family visits and remit- tances. And he won Florida.
So where is U.S. policy heading? Given the torpor that has
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, the pollsters will tell everyone it is safe to end the estrangement.
The truly interesting question is what might come after that. No one knows,
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exactly what we should: Go down and lift those people up.’’10
We should not make too much of this off-the-cuff response,
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word and I’ll turn that f—— island into a parking lot.’’11
What would seem puzzling to a visitor from another planet is why, when the
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major issue for Kennedy, who had much else on his mind.’’12
And this combination of awesome power and globe-girding responsibili- ties helps explain
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that would cost in the currency that might matter most: world opinion.
So what was plan B? First, there were a few years of what
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we ought to do to pinch their nuts more than we’re doing.’’14
Nut pinching—an embargo—has been U.S. policy ever since
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’’we might just as well get used to the idea.’’16
But tugging U.S. policy toward greater involvement is domestic politics— Cuban
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’’ Like its predecessor, the Obama administration is committed to uplifting Cuba.
Like the two post–Cold War presidents sandwiched between them—Bill Clinton and
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- tion, the greater energy, the purer morality of America.’’19
Today’s uplifting effort, which focuses on promoting democracy, carries on a tradition established
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a day or of a year, but of a longer period.’’20
Wood’s letter arrived in Washington at a moment when McKinley’s thoughts were on domestic politics—reelection—and when the rival Demo- crats were already making political capital out of his administration’s inability to pacify the Philippines, another part of the spoils seized from Spain. Seeking to balance that quagmire with progress in Cuba, the president ordered Wood to draw up the ?rst U.S. plan for Cuba’s democracy.
Wood did so. It began with the disenfranchisement of that part of the Cuban
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San Domingo, will be regarded as an event of ?rst importance.’’21
But then, when given their opportunity to vote—for Cuba’s ?rst constitu-
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change of government, unless it be annexation to the United States.’’22
But the Republicans had made an unambiguous campaign commitment to Cuban independence, and so
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. Estrada Palma’s election ended Washington’s ?rst effort to promote democracy in Cuba.
A second effort began four years later, in 1906, when a substantial number
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am seeking the very minimum of interference necessary to make them good.’’
Forced to the defensive after retaking a country only recently granted its independence, Roosevelt’s
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you need here among the Cubans is a desire to make money.’’25
As did Leonard Wood before him, Taft understood that the uplifting would not be
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by administering their Gov- ernment for two years or twenty years.’’27
As an alternative to a time-consuming attempt to de-Hispanicize Cuban culture
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elec- tion, and in early 1909, he sailed for home.
Although U.S. forces returned in 1912 to quash a complex Afro-
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sugar estates in central Cuba, where they stayed for ?ve years.28
It was during this partial occupation that the Wilson administration pres- sured President Mario
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recommendations which the President has instructed General Crowder to convey to him.’’29
Two days later, Crowder sailed into Havana’s harbor aboard a battleship, the USS
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. This is absolutely one of the ?nest things in human history.’’31 

====Current Sanctions imposed upon Cuba fulfill the prophecy of US exceptionialism — we must control the South and punish the countries that disobey our laws — disads are epistemologically flawed.====
Lamrani 03, Doctor of Iberian and Latin American Studies at the University Paris-Sorbonne Paris-IV He is a member of the Center for Interdisciplinary Research on Contemporary Iberian worlds (CRIMIC) from the University of Paris-Sorbonne Paris IV , and the Interdisciplinary Group on Hispanic Caribbean and Latin America (GRIAHAL) at the University of Cergy Pontoise. (Salim, U.S. Economic sanctions against Cuba: objectives of an imperialist policy, http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Caribbean/USEconomicSanctions_Cuba.html, chm—DR. H) Note: the date was derived from a chart this fine French fellow had in this article, the last date of which was 2003, and it said "votes until now" or something—charlie  

The economic sanctions imposed on Cuba by the United States are unique in view of
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mainly by violent and bloody conquest of new territories ¬ proves this unequivocally.
As far back as the middle of the 19th century, U.S.
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would not be controversial if the society we live in was intellectually free.

The sanctions are in place not only to end anti-Imperialist movements both domestically and abroad but also to expand the cycle of enemy-creation.

Blum 11/8—Foreign Policy Journal, author, historian, and renowned critic of U.S. foreign policy. He is the author of numerous books, including "Killing Hope: U.S. Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II" and "Rogue State: A Guide to the World’s Only Superpower" (William, 2013, The United Nations Vote on the Cuba Embargo – 22 Years In a Row, chm—DR. H)

For years American political leaders and media were fond of labeling Cuba an "international pariah". We haven’t heard that for a very long time. Perhaps one reason is the annual vote in the United Nations General Assembly on the resolution which reads: "Necessity of ending the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States of America against Cuba". This is how the vote has gone (not including abstentions):
Year Votes (Yes-No) No Votes
1992 59-2 US, Israel 1993 88-4 US, Israel, Albania, Paraguay
1994 101-2 US, Israel 1995 117-3 US, Israel, Uzbekistan
1996 138-3 US, Israel, Uzbekistan
1997 143-3 US, Israel, Uzbekistan
1998 157-2 US, Israel
1999 155-2 US, Israel
2000 167-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands
2001 167-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands 2002 173-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands
2003 179-3 US, Israel, Marshall Islands
2004 179-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2005 182-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2006 183-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2007 184-4 US, Israel, Marshall Islands, Palau
2008 185-3 US, Israel, Palau
2009 187-3 US, Israel, Palau
2010 187-2 US, Israel
2011 186-2 US, Israel
2012 188-3 US, Israel, Palau
2013 188-2 US, Israel
Each fall the UN vote is a welcome reminder that the world has not completely lost its senses and that the American empire does not completely control the opinion of other governments.
Speaking before the General Assembly, October 29, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez declared: "The economic damages accumulated after half a century as a result of the implementation of the blockade amount to 241.126 trillion." He added that the blockade "has been further tightened under President Obama’s administration", some 30 US and foreign entities being hit with 242.446 billion in fines due to their interaction with Cuba.
However, the American envoy, Ronald Godard, in an appeal to other countries to oppose the resolution, said:
"The international community … cannot in good conscience ignore the ease and frequency with which the Cuban regime silences critics, disrupts peaceful assembly, impedes independent journalism and, despite positive reforms, continues to prevent some Cubans from leaving or returning to the island. The Cuban government continues its tactics of politically motivated detentions, harassment and police violence against Cuban citizens."~1~
So there you have it. That is why Cuba must be punished. One can only guess what Mr. Godard would respond if told that more than 7,000 people were arrested in the United States during the Occupy Movement’s first 8 months of protest;~2~ that their encampments were violently smashed up; that many of them were physically abused by the police.
Does Mr. Godard ever read a newspaper or the Internet, or watch television? Hardly a day passes in America without a police officer shooting to death an unarmed person?
As to "independent journalism" – what would happen if Cuba announced that from now on anyone in the country could own any kind of media? How long would it be before CIA money – secret and unlimited CIA money financing all kinds of fronts in Cuba – would own or control most of the media worth owning or controlling?
The real reason for Washington’s eternal hostility toward Cuba? The fear of a good example of an alternative to the capitalist model; a fear that has been validated repeatedly over the years as Third World countries have expressed their adulation of Cuba.
How the embargo began: On April 6, 1960, Lester D. Mallory
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year, the Eisenhower administration instituted the suffocating embargo against its everlasting enemy.

That requires an endless recreation of existential threats.

Ruži? 13—researcher and author for the Central and Eastern European Online Library (Maja, Securitization Outside the Liberal Political Context: Did Cuba Matter in the Cuban Missile Crisis?, http://www.sintezis.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Securitization-Outside-the-Liberal-Context.pdf, chm)

 After 1990s the international relations scholarship, once dominated by the traditional notion of
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is presented as an existential threat that requires the implementation of emergency measures. 

Political rhetoric frames our understanding of political reality.

Whisnant 12 Associate Professor of European History (Clayton, November 10, 2012, "Foucault 26 Discourse," http://webs.wofford.edu/whisnantcj/his389/foucault_discourse.pdf)//DR. H

•Discourse creates a world. By shaping our perceptions of the world, pulling
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beings together, play a key role in the social construction of reality.
• Discourse generates knowledge and "truth." Discourse constitutes not only the world that
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have seemed like madness or even barbaric because they had no discursive support.
• Discourse says something about the people who speak it. Discourse communicates knowledge not
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right to use, or that require specific locations to gain authority. 11
A sermon that would be right at home behind a church lectern might produce only an awkward silence if given at a party. And a certified lawyer acquires a certain right to speak legal discourse in a courtroom setting through a complex system of education, a series of exams, and network of state controls.
• Discourse and Power. This brings us to the fourth way that discourse operates
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of life, shaping social organization and influencing how people interpreted the world.

Absent our interrogation, extinction becomes inevitable alongside the rendering of human lives into tools.

Burke 07 – Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations in the University of New South Wales (Anthony, Theory 26 Event, Volume 10, Issue 2, 2007, "Ontologies of War: Violence, Existence and Reason," Project MUSE)
This essay develops a theory about the causes of war — and thus aims to
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to state what is and how it must be maintained as it is.
I am thinking of ontology in both its senses: ontology as both a statement
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ontology is the ’politics of truth’18 in its most sweeping and powerful form.
I see such a drive for ontological certainty and completion as particularly problematic for a
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occasion, at limited cost and with limited impact — it permeates being.
This essay describes firstly the ontology of the national security state (by way of
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themselves, making them betray not only commitments but their own substance’. 21
What I am trying to describe in this essay is a complex relation between,
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being) has analytical value, it tends to break down in action.
The epistemology of violence I describe here (strategic science and foreign policy doctrine)
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war is seen as a natural phenomenon, like tomorrow’s sunrise.’ 22
The danger obviously raised here is that these dual ontologies of war link being,
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of politics and war — tragically violent ’choices’ will continue to be made.
The essay concludes by pondering a normative problem that arises out of its analysis:
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more sustainable, peaceful and non-violent global rule of the political.
Friend and Enemy: Violent Ontologies of the Nation-State
In his Politics Among Nations Hans Morgenthau stated that ’the national interest of a peace
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qualitative competition for conventional weapons is a rational instrument of international politics’.28
The conceptual template for such an image of  national security state can be found in
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hence its essential character from its own point of view is its singleness’:
Individuality is awareness of one’s existence as a unit in sharp distinction from others. It manifests itself here in the state as a relation to other states, each of which is autonomous vis-a-vis the others...this negative relation of the state to itself is embodied in the world as the relation of one state to another and as if the negative were something external.30
Schmitt is important both for understanding the way in which such alienation is seen as
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it society is not political and a people cannot be said to exist:
Only the actual participants can correctly recognise, understand and judge the concrete situation and settle the extreme case of conflict...to judge whether the adversary intends to negate his opponent’s way of life and therefore must be repulsed or fought in order to preserve one’s own form of existence.33
Schmitt links this stark ontology to war when he states that the political is only
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enemy distinction’.34 War, in short, is an existential condition:
    the entire life of a human being is a struggle and every human being is symbolically a combatant. The friend, enemy and combat concepts receive their real meaning precisely because they refer to the real possibility of physical killing. War follows from enmity. War is the existential negation of the enemy.35
Schmitt claims that his theory is not biased towards war as a choice (’It is by no means as though the political signifies nothing but devastating war and every political deed a military action...it neither favours war nor militarism, neither imperialism nor pacifism’) but it is hard to accept his caveat at face value.36
When such a theory takes the form of a social discourse (which it does
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ontologies of war join into a closed circle of mutual support and justification.
This closed circle of existential and strategic reason generates a number of dangers. Firstly
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Israeli-Arab conflict, are arguably examples of such ontologies in action.
Secondly, the militaristic force of such an ontology is visible, in Schmitt, in the absolute sense of vulnerability whereby a people can judge whether their ’adversary intends to negate his opponent’s way of life’.38 Evoking the kind of thinking that would become controversial in the Bush doctrine, Hegel similarly argues that:
    ...a state may regard its infinity and honour as at stake in each
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addition as a cause of strife the idea of such an injury...39
Identity, even more than physical security or autonomy, is put at stake in
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by conservatives to justify military adventurism and a rejectionist policy towards the Palestinians.
On the reverse side of such ontologies of national insecurity we find pride and hubris, the belief that martial preparedness and action are vital or healthy for the existence of a people. Clausewitz’s thought is thoroughly imbued with this conviction. For example, his definition of war as an act of policy does not refer merely to the policy of cabinets, but expresses the objectives and will of peoples:
    When whole communities go to war — whole peoples, and especially civilized peoples — the reason always lies in some political situation and the occasion is always due to some political object. War, therefore, is an act of policy.42
Such a perspective prefigures Schmitt’s definition of the ’political’ (an earlier translation reads ’war
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merges the existential and rationalistic conceptions of war into a theoretical unity.44
The idea that national identities could be built and redeemed through war derived from the
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time to time to shake them to the very centre by war’.46
The historian Azar Gat points to the similarity of Clausewitz’s arguments that ’a people and
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than cool political reason...war is a major aspect of being.’48
Hegel’s text argues that war is ’a work of freedom’ in which ’the individual’s substantive duty’ merges with the ’independence and sovereignty of the state’.49 Through war, he argues,
    the ethical health of peoples is preserved in their indifference to the stabilization of finite institutions; just as the blowing of the winds preserves the sea from the foulness which would be the result of a prolonged calm, so the corruption in nations would be the product of a prolonged, let alone ’perpetual’ peace.50
Hegel indeed argues that ’sacrifice on behalf of the individuality of the state is a
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realisation in which the individual dissolves into the higher unity of the state:
    The intrinsic worth of courage as a disposition of mind is to be found
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an attitude of complete indifference or even liking towards them as individuals.52
A more frank statement of the potentially lethal consequences of patriotism — and its simultaneously
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war and the social contract in the form of the national security state.
Strategic Reason and Scientific Truth
By itself, such an account of the nationalist ontology of war and security provides
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a machinic process of which war and violence are viewed as normal features.
These are the deeper claims and implications of Clausewitzian strategic reason. One of the
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, removed technical limits from the exercise of power in foreign policy’.55
Kissinger’s conviction was based not merely in his pride in the vast military and bureaucratic
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view that the real world is almost entirely internal to the observer’.56
At the same time, Kissinger’s hubris and hunger for control was beset by a
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hunger for stasis and certainty that would entrench U.S. hegemony:
    For the two decades after 1945, our international activities were based on the
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multipolarity even though overwhelming military strength will remain with the two superpowers.58
Kissinger’s statement revealed that such cravings for order and certainty continually confront chaos, resistance
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with a deeply controversial and divisive war to remove Saddam Hussein from power.
In this struggle with the lessons of Vietnam, revolutionary resistance, and rapid geopolitical
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associated rationality...does not inevitably produce a similar concept of reality’.61
We sense the rational policymaker’s frustrated desire: the world is supposed to work like a machine, ordered by a form of power and governmental reason which deploys machines and whose desires and processes are meant to run along ordered, rational lines like a machine. Kissinger’s desire was little different from that of Cromer who, wrote Edward Said:
    ...envisions a seat of power in the West and radiating out from it towards the East a great embracing machine, sustaining the central authority yet commanded by it. What the machine’s branches feed into it from the East — human material, material wealth, knowledge, what have you — is processed by the machine, then converted into more power...the immediate translation of mere Oriental matter into useful substance.62
This desire for order in the shadow of chaos and uncertainty — the constant war
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an exclusively quantitative analysis could science attain certain knowledge of the world’.65
Such doctrines of mathematically verifiable truth were to have powerful echoes in the 20th Century
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control of the weapons themselves, into political utility and rational strategy.66
Bacon thought of the new scientific method not merely as way of achieving a purer
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, that man may be said to be a god unto man’.68
We may be forgiven for blinking, but in Bacon’s thought ’man’ was indeed in the process of stealing a new fire from the heavens and seizing God’s power over the world for itself. Not only would the new empirical science lead to ’an improvement of mankind’s estate, and an increase in their power over nature’, but would reverse the primordial humiliation of the Fall of Adam:
    For man, by the fall, lost at once his state of innocence
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ceremonies) at length to afford mankind in some degree his bread...69
There is a breathtaking, world-creating hubris in this statement — one that
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inventions are a blessing and a benefit without injuring or afflicting any’.70
And what would be mankind’s ’bread’, the rewards of its new ’empire over creation’
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much as enlightenment; the destruction of nature as much as its utilisation.
Doubts and Fears: Technology as Ontology
If Bacon could not reasonably be expected to foresee many of these developments, the idea that scientific and technological progress could be destructive did occur to him. However it was an anxiety he summarily dismissed:
    ...let none be alarmed at the objection of the arts and sciences becoming depraved to malevolent or luxurious purposes and the like, for the same can be said of every worldly good; talent, courage, strength, beauty, riches, light itself...Only let mankind regain their rights over nature, assigned to them by the gift of God, and obtain that power, whose exercise will be governed by right reason and true religion.71
By the mid-Twentieth Century, after the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, such fears could no longer be so easily wished away, as the physicist and scientific director of the Manhattan Project, J. Robert Oppenheimer recognised. He said in a 1947 lecture:
    We felt a particularly intimate responsibility for suggesting, for supporting and in the end in large measure achieving the realization of atomic weapons...In some sort of crude sense which no vulgarity, no humor, no over-statement can quite extinguish, the physicists have known sin, and this is a knowledge they cannot lose.72
Adam had fallen once more, but into a world which refused to acknowledge its
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and Descartes’ faith in mathematics to make of the Bomb a rational weapon.
Oppenheimer — who resolutely opposed the development of the hydrogen bomb — understood what the
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an unmooring quality; it finds men unprepared to deal with it.’75
Martin Heidegger questioned this mapping of natural science onto the social world in his essays
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of science for politics, knowledge for force, or force for good.
Instead, Oppenheimer saw a process frustrated by roadblocks and ruptured by irony; in
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political certainty; it turns control over ’facts’ into control over the earth.
Heidegger’s insights into this phenomena I find especially telling and disturbing — because they underline
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technology. The actual threat has already affected man in his essence.’77
This process Heidegger calls ’Enframing’ and through it the scientific mind demands that ’nature reports
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human lives are reduced to tools, obstacles, useful or obstinate matter.
This tells us much about the enduring power of crude instrumental versions of strategic thought
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of the sand and take action toward shutting down Hezbollah-land.’81
Conclusion: Violent Ontologies or Peaceful Choices?
I was motivated to begin the larger project from which this essay derives by a
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fail to question the ontological claims of political community or strategic theory.82
In the case of a theorist like Jean Bethke Elshtain, just war doctrine is
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destructive and violent way of acknowledging and dealing with conflict and difference.85
My argument here, whilst normatively sympathetic to Kant’s moral demand for the eventual abolition
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revealing and hence to experience the call of a more primal truth.’87
What I take from Heidegger’s argument — one that I have sought to extend by
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and violence as necessary policy responses, however ineffective, dysfunctional or chaotic.
The force of my own and Heidegger’s analysis does, admittedly, tend towards a
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are certainly tremendously aggressive and energetic in continually stating and reinstating its force.
But is there a way out? Is there no possibility of agency and choice
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us valuable clues to the kind of sensibility needed, but little more.
When we consider the problem of policy, the force of this analysis suggests that
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and activating a very different concept of existence, security and action.90
This would seem to hinge upon ’questioning’ as such — on the questions we put
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to end the global rule of insecurity and violence? Will our thought?

These attempts to dominate a target nation is based in a form of power over that is a violent approach to the world that must be rejected

Sjoberg 2k—Associate Professor of Political Science and affiliate faculty in Women’s Studies at the University of Florida. She has previously taught and researched at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Duke University, Boston College, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Brandeis University, and Merrimack College. She holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Gender Studies from the University of Southern California, and a law degree from Boston College.  Chair of the International Studies Association Committee on the Status of Women (Laura, "Towards a Feminist Theory of Sanctions", http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf**, chm)

Critical Redefinition of Power in the International Arena The critical redefinition of power that would
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program kept them there, just dangling a carrot just out of reach. 

These sanctions aren’t neutral but rather upheld by securitization

Sjoberg 2k—Associate Professor of Political Science and affiliate faculty in Women’s Studies at the University of Florida. She has previously taught and researched at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Duke University, Boston College, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Brandeis University, and Merrimack College. She holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Gender Studies from the University of Southern California, and a law degree from Boston College.  Chair of the International Studies Association Committee on the Status of Women (Laura, Towards a Feminist Theory of Sanctions", http://www.laurasjoberg.com/BA.pdf**, chm)

The United States’ policy determination to keep sanctions in its arsenal of policy choices brings
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that Iraq could resort to "use of chemical or biological terrorism."44

Vote AFF to epistemologically interrogate the security logic the United States federal government used to justify its economic sanctions on Cuba — The ballot is a referendum on the desirability of security logic — these sanctions are a heuristic by which we can make that decision.

Ahmed 12 – Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace 26 Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis

While recommendations to shift our frame of orientation away from conventional state-centrism toward
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of state security planning in the context of counter-terrorism operations abroad.
The intensifying problematisation and externalisation of Muslim-majority regions and populations by Western `
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the efficacy of the prevailing geopolitical and economic order is ideologically beyond question.
As much as this analysis highlights a direct link between global systemic crises, social polarisation and state militarisation, it fundamentally undermines the idea of a symbiotic link between natural resources and conflict per se. Neither ’resource shortages’ nor ’resource abundance’ (in ecological, energy, food and monetary terms) necessitate conflict by themselves.
There are two key operative factors that determine whether either condition could lead to conflict
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to externalisation of those groups, and the legitimisation of violence towards them.
Ultimately, this systems approach to global crises strongly suggests that conventional policy ’reform’ is
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of the post-carbon era through social, political and economic transformation.
Yet conventional theoretical and policy approaches fail to (1) fully engage with the
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, effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Our epistemological interrogation of Economic Engagement is key.

Duina 05, Francesco, Professor in Sociology at the University of British Columbia, Visiting Professor in the Department of Business and Politics at the Copenhagen Business School in Denmark, author of five books about social construction and economic sociology, Ph.D. from Harvard, member of the editorial boards of the Journal of European Public Policy and Economy and Society, 2005, "The Social Construction of Free Trade: The European Union, NAFTA, and Mercosur," http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8040.html)//DR. H

The starting premise of the book is that the pursuit of free trade in any
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are remarkably different creations. This book explores and accounts for their distinctiveness.
The evidence presented in the next chapters has direct implications for three topics of much
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. The focus on RTAs brings new evidence to bear on these issues.
The specific focus of the book is on two major areas of difference among RTAs
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labels should list all ingredients, or racial discrimination in hiring is acceptable.
Regional market building poses special challenges. Historically, most markets have formed slowly over
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it requires fundamental changes in subtle and sometimes implicit notions about the world.
RTA officials have responded differently to this challenge. In some areas, they have
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, if problems arise, to turn to reactive conflict-resolution mechanisms.
RTAs differ not only in the complexity of their legal architectures but also in the
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labor, medical conditions, and the use of food additives quite differently.
The second claim concerns the responses of societal organizations to regional integration. Different interest
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, the expansion of furniture manufacturers, and the internationalization of transportation departments.
In some cases, analogous organizations develop regional structures and programs across different RTAs. But those cases still see important differences across those organizations in terms of specific structures and programs. If, for instance, farmers emerge at the regional level in two RTAs, their members’ profiles and their objectives are likely to vary. Similarly, if textile companies expand internationally in two given RTAs, what exactly they produce will differ.
What helps explain these differences in law and organizational developments? The Social Construction of
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the grounds in the member states and that RTAs acquire their distinctive character.
Specifically, in the case of interventionism versus minimalism in regional law, the presence
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, and so on) that have flourished in those dominant regulatory environments.
As to the targets and content of regional law, we consider again existing legal
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boundaries of the permissible, the final character of any given regional law.
Organizational changes in RTAs also reflect existing institutional and political contexts. Those organizations that
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area, organizations adapt by expanding their operations in tandem with such law.
The evidence for these claims concerns three RTAs in Europe and the Americas: the
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important notions surrounding labor rights, yet their definitions and visions vary significantly.
We will then consider the evolution of three types of organizations in the same three
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, crucially, that those units and processes are particular to each RTA.
The argument and evidence presented in this book directly challenge the recent writing of a
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the local as a place of difference. Three strands are especially important.
Some proponents of globalization suggest that the world is becoming an increasingly homogenous place.
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, offer similar examples (Arrighi 2000; Burtless et al. 2000).
A second set of globalization theorists point to increased international cooperation. As human communities
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nation state are being eroded in favor of a global, cosmopolitan system.
A third group of proponents acknowledges that the world remains full of variation and idiosyncrasies
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people are well aware of events and systems outside of their small country.
This book challenges these visions of a global world, and especially those related to
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either be untenable or still only be achieved quite far into the future.
This book naturally aligns itself with the critics of the globalization thesis. But while
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evidence of an intriguing combination of regions with unique legal and organizational characteristics.
This book directly speaks to a second important topic: the nature of markets.
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commodities and actors involved in the exchange (Spillman 1999; Zelizer 1992).
Clearly, this book contributes directly to the idea that markets require much support to
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RTAs is likely to yield a whole array of new and exciting insights.
In addition, we should note that RTAs represent a very particular genre of market
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individuals have made, in different places, to construct their respective markets.
The book addresses a third important debate: how a particular economic ideology—in
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convergence across countries, as some observers thought it might (Boltho 1996).

Disregard claims of inevitability – only by rejecting the securitization of the affirmative can we open up space for new alternatives – realism is structurally flawed

Roberts 08 – research paper submitted at the University of East Anglia, School of Political, Social and International Studies, cites political scientists such as Fukuyama (July 10, 2008, Adrian Bua Roberts, "Contesting Neo-Realism and Liberal Idealism; Where do Hopes for a ’Perpetual Peace’ Lie?" http://www.e-ir.info/2008/07/10/contesting-neo-realism-and-liberal-idealism-where-do-hopes-for-a-E28098perpetual-peaceE28099-lie/)  NG

War has been an omnipresent aspect of the international order since the beginning of recorded
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reduce or eliminate war the world must reach a post-capitalist stage.
THE ROOTS OF WAR
The lack of organization, technology and communication would make war unfeasible until a relatively
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another state’s ’sovereignty’, without ’Sovereignty’ war would not be necessary.

Tournament: Golden Desert | Round: 5 | Opponent: Alpharetta HM | Judge: Voss, Jon

1AC — Stability ADV

ADVANTAGE ONE IS STABILITY —

Oil shocks cause a great power war.

Qasem 7, Islam Yasin  a doctoral candidate in the Department of Politics and Social Sciences at the University of Pompeu Fabra (UPF) in Barcelona, MA in International Affairs from Columbia, July 9, 2007, "The Coming Warfare of Oil Shortage," online: http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_islam_ya_070709_the_coming_warfare_o.htm

Recognizing the strategic value of oil for their national interests, superpowers will not hesitate
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the chances of using nuclear weapons in pursues of national interests are high. 

Hotspots go nuclear.

Bosco, 6 – senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine (David, "Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III" http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06211/709477-109.stm_)

The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the
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not even a hint that France, Russia or China would respond militarily.

Failed states cause extinction and structural impacts.

Manwaring 05—October 2005 (Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College,
Max G. "VENEZUELA’S HUGO CHÁVEZ, BOLIVARIAN SOCIALISM, AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE") http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub628.pdf KY

President Cha?vez also understands that the process leading to state failure is the most dangerous
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they and their associated problems endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.

Cuban instability causes multiple scenarios for extinction —- specifically causes hotspot escalation.

Gorrell 5 - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
*GWOT = Global War on Terrorism

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

US action is prerequisite to stability.

Cardenas 13— served in several foreign policy positions during the George W. Bush administration (2004-2009), including on the National Security Council staff, a consultant with Vision Americas in Washington, DC (Jose, 3/6, "The struggle for Venezuela’s future",  http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/06/the_struggle_for_venezuela_s_future) EL

The struggle for Venezuela’s future begins now — and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
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Iran, and drug traffickers to the detriment of peace and regional security.

Economic crisis causes Venezuela to become a failed state.

Ziff 10/9—writer at the St. Andrews Foreign Review (Tamar, 2013, "Venezuela: Failed State in the Making?", http://foreignaffairsreview.co.uk/2013/10/venezuela-failed/) EL

"Venezuela sits nestled between Colombia and Guyana on the Caribbean coast of the South
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of yet a "failed state." But it is pretty damn close.

Venezuelan economic instability is coming — collapse causes oil shocks and regional instability.

Noriega 11/26, 2013, Roger, former assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, former US ambassador to the OAS, assistant secretary of state under President George W. Bush. He is an American Enterprise Institute visiting fellow and managing director of Vision Americas LLC, which represents US and foreign clients, "Venezuela headed for chaos," http://nypost.com/2013/11/26/venezuela-headed-for-chaos/)//DR. H

Venezuela is in a death spiral that could produce a crisis for the United States. Economic collapse, incompetent leadership and Cuban meddling may provoke a showdown among well-armed chavista rivals, with civilians caught in the crossfire. US diplomats, who’ve spent years ignoring or minimizing threats emanating from Venezuela, must act urgently to prevent a Syria scenario on our doorstep.
The late dictator Hugo Chávez left behind a mess: His divisive, illegitimate regime polarized society and devastated the economy. Inflation is running at 50 percent, while the vital oil sector is faltering. The bloated, bankrupt state can’t sustain the social spending that kept the peace; the nation already faces food shortages, power outages and rampant crime.
Chávez’s hapless successor, Nicolás Maduro, won disputed elections in April in what even he called a "Pyrrhic victory." His mismanagement since has only hastened the country’s decline — for example, dealing with toilet-paper shortages by confiscating paper companies.
Maduro has resorted to accusing the Obama White House of plotting the collapse of the Venezuelan economy. He’s also created a "vice ministry of supreme social happiness" in an Orwellian gesture to tamp down widespread social anxiety. He even moved up Christmas celebrations up in advance of the Dec. 8 local elections.
Last week, Maduro publicly ordered retailers to lower prices on consumer goods. Security forces arrested dozens of shopkeepers and stood by as mobs emptied store shelves. Good luck seeing those shelves restocked. As he further tightens economic controls, Venezuelans will have to settle for what the government provides. Their only other choices: Flee the country, turn to crime — or oppose the regime.
Maduro is most worried about the last. He recently ordered the detention of several civic leaders who’d been mobilizing protest rallies. Regime sources say that he may even nix the upcoming elections and jail well-known opposition politicians.
Most blame these draconian measures on Maduro’s Cuban handlers, the puppeteers behind his rise to power. The destitute Castro regime’s survival depends on Venezuelan oil, so it means to keep Maduro in power by repressing popular unrest and ferreting out dissent — including within the regime.
By pushing Maduro to purge powerful chavistas — many with ties to the military — who disapprove of Havana’s heavy hand, the Cubans have likely overreached. This crackdown has stoked tension within the military between those aligned with Maduro and nationalists who’ve never been comfortable in a Cuban harness.
The regime has very little room to maneuver. Virtually every Venezuelan is infuriated by the daily fight for survival. The anti-chavistas are fed up with the harassment by an illegitimate and incompetent one-party state. All sides in the military are busy weighing their options.
Any act of repression, street brawl, electoral fraud or corruption scandal could unleash all the fury built up over the regime’s 15 years. Tragically, the sight of military units squaring off in the streets of Caracas is not a distant memory.
The United States imports about half the Venezuelan petroleum that it did when Chávez was elected in 1998, but that’s still 9 percent of our foreign oil purchases. Plus, an implosion of Venezuela’s economy — or, God forbid, prolonged civil warfare — will roil the international oil markets and destabilize the region when the US economy is sputtering.
What’s worse, in the last decade, Venezuela has become a narco-state, with dozens of senior officials and state-run enterprises complicit in the lucrative cocaine trade. The regime also is an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, which may find their own ways to exploit chaos in Venezuela.
Geography makes the bloodbath in Syria all but invisible to Americans, but Venezuela is a three-hour flight from Miami and No. 3 in the world in social networking. The US public will see photos and videos of innocent demonstrators mowed down in the street. Moreover, in the Americas, the United States will be expected to lead.

Venezuelan stability’s a prerequisite to Cuban stability.

Osava 13—Inter Press Service correspondent since 1978 ("Dependent on Venezuela’s Oil Diplomacy", 3/18, http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/03/several-countries-depend-on-venezuelas-oil-diplomacy/) EL

RIO DE JANEIRO, Mar 18 2013 (IPS) - Venezuela’s economic challenges,
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difficult to identify "who could shoulder the cost of a new crisis."

Brazil has influence on Venezuela and wants to prevent instability.

Romero 11/7, Maria, 2013, "Brazil and Venezuela: The Discrete Fallout of Two Strategic Partners," http://panampost.com/maria-teresa-romero/2013/11/07/brazil-and-venezuela-the-discrete-fallout-of-two-strategic-partners/)//DR. H

Why Dilma Rouseff Is Easing Back from the Weakening Maduro Regime
Since 2003, when Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office as president of Brazil, and under his successor Dilma Rousseff, commercial and diplomatic relations with Chavista Venezuela have been positive and close. The pair have been vital strategic partners, despite the undeniable political differences between both their governments.
These differences can be seen clearly in their foreign policies. In contrast with the ones implemented by Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, marked by their ideological bias, those favored by Lula and Rousseff have been more pragmatic; they are mainly based on economic interests and their traditional geo-strategic objective, to consolidate themselves as a regional and global power.
This explains Brazil’s friendly but conditional stance towards Venezuela during the Chavista regime. In
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due to the economic crisis and the political instability of Nicolás Maduro’s administration.
We should recall that it was in 2005, with Lula, when the "strategic alliance" was truly signed between Brasília and Caracas. Officials initiated agreements on a wide array of matters, quarterly meetings, and a cooperation facility. As these links strengthened, a very privileged partnership arose, which brought about an 858 percent increase in Brazilian exports to Venezuela. According to the Venezuelan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, total Brazil-Venezuela trade grew seven-fold from 2003 to 2012.
Regarding politics and diplomacy, though, President Lula signaled his distance from Chávez’s stance in matters that compromised Brazilian interests. For instance, during confrontations between the Commandante and George W. Bush’s administration in the United States and with the Colombian Álvaro Uribe, Lula acted as mediator or an appeaser with Chávez.
Still, Lula’s support for Chávez afforded the Venezuelan president international legitimacy. He did so through action or omission, sometimes with complicit silence, sometimes in a direct way or through his minister of foreign affairs, Celso Amorin, or his adviser Marco Aurelio García, who were in charge of his foreign policy.
With Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, those fruitful bilateral relations have continued. Venezuela still accounts for 15 percent of Brazil’s total trade surplus. In 2012, their bilateral trade reached a record US246.1 billion — although it favored Brazil steeply, where 80 percent of the traded goods and services came from. The energy sector accounted for Venezuela’s 20 percent (state-led).
Russeff and Maduro too have a cordial relationship. One of the Venezuelan president’s first visits this year, after his dubious electoral win, was to Brazil — and Brazil was one of the first countries to offer diplomatic acknowledgement. During the meeting, both leaders committed to sustaining their alliance and signed new agreements. Later, Brazilian authorities ensured that they would help Venezuela overcome the serious shortages it is currently experiencing.
Nevertheless, neither commercial nor diplomatic relations have been quite the same as those between
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although these are not as acute as those faced by her Venezuelan counterpart.
The disastrous economic situation in Venezuela is also a factor in Russeff’s growing apart.
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payments of exports from Brazilian companies this year are already four months late.
Brazil’s subtle distancing is also due to the militarization and radicalization of Maduro’s administration.
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that she prefers "the noise of newspapers to the silence of dictatorships."
After all, Brazil is aware that it enjoys a democracy in which the media
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and has long ceased to be the epicenter of the Latin American left.

Venezuelan instability’s on the brink — the condition of the plan is key — absent it, instability spills over to the broader region.

Trinkunas 1/23, Harold, Charles W. Robinson Chair and senior fellow and director of the Latin America Initiative in the Foreign Policy program, his research focuses on Latin American politics, particularly on issues related to democratization and security, 2014, "Venezuela Breaks Down in Violence," http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2014/01/venezuela-breaks-down-violence-trinkunas)//DR. H

Summary and Recommendations
Economic mismanagement in Venezuela has reached such a level that it risks inciting a violent popular reaction. Venezuela is experiencing declining export revenues, accelerating inflation and widespread shortages of basic consumer goods. At the same time, the Maduro administration has foreclosed peaceful options for Venezuelans to bring about a change in its current policies.
President Maduro, who came to power in a highly-contested election last April, has reacted to the economic crisis with interventionist and increasingly authoritarian measures. His recent orders to slash prices of goods sold in private businesses resulted in episodes of looting, which suggests a latent potential for violence. He has put the armed forces on the street to enforce his economic decrees, exposing them to popular discontent.
Although the volume of crude oil that Venezuela supplies to the United States has declined
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violence-induced regime change in Venezuela would create a volatile situation regionally.
Our leverage is limited, given our poor relations with the Maduro administration. I
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have the institutional mechanisms by which to influence their government to change course.
Background
Production by the national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), has been falling for over a decade due to underinvestment, poor maintenance and the loss of skilled workers. International investment in the oil sector has been deterred by erratic and arbitrary government policies. Further aggravating balance of payments problems, Venezuela sells a substantial amount of its oil at below market prices to China, Cuba, its allies in the Americas and its own citizens.
Dwindling oil revenues are a problem because oil constitutes over 95 percent of Venezuela’s exports, and two-thirds of food and consumer goods are imported. Hugo Chávez nationalized and then mismanaged many domestic industries, undermining local production. Maduro has since doubled down on these policies. In addition, his administration is increasingly financing the public sector by ordering the central bank to print more money. These policies produced the highest inflation rate in the world in 2013.
The government’s response to scarcity has been to decree price reductions and create government agencies to manage all imports. This produced a rush to acquire what consumer goods remain, compounding the already existing shortage of staples. The Maduro administration has promised that it will ensure sufficient imports, but it has a poor record with the large segments of the economy it already controls.
Venezuela still holds elections regularly, but the Maduro administration has undermined democratic institutions.
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elections, the Maduro administration creates parallel governing institutions to route around them.
The risk of a violent outcome may still be low, but it will rise
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level, and elections are not scheduled to take place again until 2015.
Ultimately, the armed forces are key to Maduro’s hold on power, but he
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existence also means that any attempt to overthrow Maduro will quickly turn violent.
Violence in Venezuela would have international consequences, mainly through its potential to interrupt oil
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exports and because of Venezuela’s role in Colombia’s peace negotiations with its insurgency.
There are few good options that could be taken to reduce the likelihood of violence. To begin with, we must bear in mind that the United States lacks the diplomatic tools, such as democracy assistance, to influence outcomes in Venezuela. Overt U.S. criticism of the Maduro administration or efforts to exert our limited economic leverage would be grist for the mill of the Venezuelan propaganda machine; we should avoid that.
The focus of our efforts thus should be to work with regional and international partners
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invoke the Inter-American Democratic Charter to address the situation in Venezuela.
Brazil is both politically and economically influential in Venezuela, and it has enough at
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. However, it offers the best available option under the current circumstances.

1AC — Relations ADV

ADVANTAGE TWO IS RELATIONS

Israel-Palestine war causes extinction — risk of war is high.

Beres 11/11, Louis, 2013, "The Future of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence: Debates about Iran and Palestinian statehood will have an effect on Israel’s mode of self-defense," http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/11/11/iran-israel-and-the-nuclear-threat-in-the-middle-east)//DR. H

A Palestinian state would make Israel’s conventional capabilities more problematic; it could thereby heighten the chances of a regional nuclear war. Although Palestine itself would obviously be non-nuclear, its overall strategic impact could nonetheless be magnified by continuously unfolding and more-or-less unpredictable developments in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Lebanon and elsewhere in this roiling and chaotic area.
A nuclear war could arrive in Israel not only as a "bolt-from
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reprisals might be met, in the future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.
For now, this would become possible only if a still-nuclearizing Iran were
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the first place, could reduce Israel’s escalatory exposure to a nuclear war.
Pertinent questions arise. With its implicit ("deliberately ambiguous") nuclear capacities, why should Israel need a conventional deterrent at all? After all, even after Palestinian statehood, wouldn’t all rational enemy states desist from launching any conventional or biological attacks upon Israel out of an entirely sensible fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation?
Not necessarily. Aware that Israel would cross the nuclear threshold only in very extraordinary circumstances, these enemy states could be convinced – rightly or wrongly – that as long as their attacks remained recognizably non-nuclear, Israel would always respond in kind.
The only credible way for Israel to deter large-scale conventional attacks after the
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were undertaken, lead quickly via escalation to various forms of unconventional war.
However unforeseen, Palestine, already a "nonmember observer state" at the United Nations, would have measurably corrosive effects on power and peace in the Middle East. As, by definition, the creation of this particular Arab state would come at the territorial expense of Israel, the Jewish state’s strategic depth would promptly and irretrievably diminish. Over time, Israel’s conventional capacity to ward off enemy attacks could be commensurately reduced.
If certain enemy states were to perceive Israel’s own sense of expanding weakness and possible
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prove calamitous for the "winner," as well as the "loser."
To be sure, a meaningful risk of regional nuclear war in the Middle East exists independently of any Palestinian state. Still, this unprecedented risk would be further enlarged if a 23rd Arab state were to appear more-or-less simultaneously with Iranian nuclear weapons. Above anything else, Israel must now do what is needed to prevent such coinciding and mutually-reinforcing and existential perils.

Diseases cause extinction.

Casadevall 12, Professor of Microbiology, Immunology, and the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Arturo, "The future of biological warfare," Microbial Biotechnology, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-7915.2012.00340.x/pdf)//DR. H

Existential threats to humanity
In considering the importance of biological warfare as a subject for concern it is worthwhile
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their hosts and that some proportion of the host population was naturally resistant.
However, that calculation does not apply to microbes that are acquired directly from the
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acquired the capacity for pathogenicity as a consequence of natural evolution or bioengineering.

Nuclear terrorism results in extinction.

Hellman, 08 ~Martin E. Hellman, Professor @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING 2008 THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf~~

The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that  preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. 

Cyberterrorism is feasible and results in escalatory nuclear warfare.

Fritz 09, Jason, Masters in International Relations, Researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, 2009, "Hacking Nuclear Command and Control," http://icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf)//DR. H

This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism in regard to nuclear weapons.
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its own, without the need for compromising command and control centres directly.

Terrorism is highly likely in the Tri-Border Area — prefer expert consensus.

Trevisi 13, A.F., Research Assistant at the  International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, October 2013, http://www.ict.org.il/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=4u2-oK2D_TM3d26tabid=66)//DR. H

Terrorism in the Tri-Border Area (TBA) has become a salient,
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characteristics make the TBA a potential safe haven and breeding ground for terrorists.
Subsequently, Part 2 attempts to evaluate the main components of the regional terrorist threat
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with the TBA-linked bombings in Buenos Aires in 1992 and 1994.
In Part 3, this report attempts to explain how the operational capabilities of the
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, the TBA nations will need to implement a more comprehensive counterterrorist strategy.

Brazil’s a hot-cyber mess.

Volcsko 1/16/14, Ben, Research Assistant at the Monterrey Institute of International Studies, httpr://sites.miis.edu/cysec/2014/01/16/profile-of-brazils-overall-cyber-security-situation/)//DR. H

Brazil is often known for its coastal beauty but sadly it should also be recognized
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in their cyber security practices to provide some teeth for their new resolve.

US-Brazil relations mitigate diseases.

Sweig et al 11 (Julia E. Sweig, Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies, AND Samuel W. Bodman, and James D. Wolfensohn, Chairmen, Wolfensohn 26 Company, LLC) ("Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations" Council on Foreign Relations Task Force Report, July 12, 2011, http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Brazil_TFR_66.pdf BLOV)

The Task Force urges action within the U.S. Congress to allow tech¬nology transfer to accompany Brazilian purchases of U.S. military equipment. These transfers would boost bilateral trade, U.S. industry, and defense cooperation and simultaneously support Brazil’s technology and innovation agenda.
Brazil’s investment in health research is providing tangible ben¬efits and important successes in
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research projects that could help generate novel diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.

Brazilian diplomatic influence internationally resolves an Israel-Palestine conflict.

Datz and Peters, 13 – Giselle Datz is an Assistant Professor of Government and International Affairs at the School of Public and International Affairs, Joel Peters is
Professor of Government and International Affairs at the School of Public and International Affairs, Virginia Tech ("Brazil and the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict in the New Century: Between Ambition, Idealism, and Pragmatism," Israel Journal of foreign Affairs VII : 2 (2013) http://israelcfr.com/documents/7-2/7-2-5-GiselleDatz-and-JoelPeters.pdf)//HAL

Brazil’s approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict has remained true to the  course set
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policy behavior that is not too  dissimilar to that of other emerging powers.  

Brazil’s key — its overall influence plays a crucial role in the Middle East.

Meyer 13 2/27/13 (Peter J. Meyer Analyst in Latin American Affairs for the Congressional Research Service) ("CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Brazil-U.S. Relations" February 27, 2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf  BLOV)

In addition to seeking greater influence within global governance institutions, Brazil has pushed for
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, President Rousseff called for Palestine’s full membership in the United Nations.79
Additionally, Brazil has been involved in discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program. In May
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new states to play important roles in resolving issues of geopolitical importance.83 

US-Brazil diplomatic cooperation spills up to security coop — specifically in the Tri-Border Region — that solves terrorism and drug trafficking.

Brown 12, Lieutenant Colonel, Thesis for Master of Strategic Studies (Lawrence T., 3/23/12, "Restoring the Unwritten Alliance in Brazil-United States Relations," pdf)DR. H

Brazil’s regional activism enables the United States to focus its diminishing foreign aid budget on the unstable parts of the developing world. These proposed¶ diplomatic initiatives are good faith measures crafted to lay the groundwork for greater¶ friendship. They should allay Brazilian concerns regarding sovereignty and reciprocity. ¶ Additionally, more positive U.S. – Brazil relations will facilitate future bilateral cooperation on economic and defense measures regionally and throughout the world.
Military Recommendations
Strengthened military relations naturally flow from improved diplomatic ones. As regional leaders, the
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States and Brazil that flourished in the first half of the 20th Century.
When Brazil hosts the World Cup and Olympics in a couple of years, it
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and Defense to provide any future support desired by the Brazilian government.43
One of the great strengths of the United States resides in its intelligence databases,
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to originate in the "Tri-Border Area" of South America.
Exposed Southern Flank
The United States has long worried about the "Tri-Border Area" (
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, and they have an organized training and recruitment camp for terrorists."50
The historical evidence of terrorist activity emanating from the TBA is chilling. If the
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unthinkable until the Iran crisis over-dual use nuclear material is resolved.
Narco-Terrorist Connection
Cooperation in breaking the Brazil—West Africa narcotics connection is another area where national
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into a hemispheric security network serving the national interests of all participating nations.

US-Brazil relations are low — the condition of the plan through Brazil reinvigorates US relations with Brazil and the broader region.

Kingstone 09, Peter, Associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, 1/12/09, "Brazil: The Sleeping Giant Awakens?" http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/3145/brazil-the-sleeping-giant-awakens)//DR. H

Implications for U.S. Policy
U.S.-Latin American relations have suffered from deep neglect over the past
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, then Brazil will continue to be a country to be reckoned with.
Lula’s time in office is coming to a close and as yet there is no clear successor. Regardless, however, it is unlikely that Brazilian foreign policy will change much. Lula’s foreign policy agenda differed from the past mostly in its ambitiousness. The country’s foreign policy elite, housed in Itamaraty, the foreign affairs ministry, is highly professional and strongly nationalist, and helps to maintain a consistent and competent presence in foreign affairs.
Perhaps most importantly, Brazil continues to be the United States’ best option to find
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, U.S. positions are sometimes perceived as arrogant and unfair.
If the U.S. continues to approach Brazil in this manner, it
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possibility of working together to promote support for democracy — another common interest.
Brazil’s model may face weaknesses. Its soft power, while sufficient to complicate the U.S. agenda or thwart its objectives, is not great enough to construct any real alternative to cooperation with the United States. But Brazil is not going away as a major player in the region. With some U.S. understanding and respect for Brazil’s legitimate concerns, the door is open for an effective and cooperative relationship. 

The plan’s key to Brazilian diplomatic influence globally, Brazil says yes and the condition creates a trilateral cooperative venue with Venezuela.

Brown, 12 ~Lieutenant Colonel Lawrence T. Brown, Restoring the "Unwritten Alliance" in Brazil—United States Relations, Strategy Research Project, 3-23-12, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA560773~~

Brazil’s Initiative for Cooperation
The last area of convergence and cooperation is not an American one, but a
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of its kind agreement for the United States and Brazil in Africa. 58
These trilateral agreements make strategic sense because bilateral agreements between the United States and relatively poor countries usually elicit criticism that the world’s only superpower is engaging in exploitive neo-colonialism. ¶ Having itself been a Portuguese colony, Brazil is viewed as a moderating influence on perceived expansive U.S. foreign policy. Brazil is also considered a friendly observer to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) of 120 countries that are distrustful of superpower diplomacy.59
Plainly spoken, if Brazil is part of an U.S. agreement with
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with President ¶ Obama’s pursuit of more partnerships and greater burden-sharing.

1AC — Plan

The United States federal government should increase its economic engagement with Venezuela if and only if Brazil pressures Venezuela to rethink its economic policies, respect a "checks and balances" based government, and allow elected members of the opposition to fulfill their role in government.