Tournament: Calhoun | Round: 3 | Opponent: Marist BA | Judge: Josh Clark
The counterplan solves the case and is net-beneficial—

First, the U.S. should trade increased economic engagement for Gross’s release — a quid pro quo is key to boost relations.
Smith 12 — Wayne Smith, Director of the Cuba Program and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy, served as unofficial ambassador to Cuba under President Jimmy Carter, 2012 (“What Roles for Foreign Direct Investment in the New Cuban Economy?,” Transcript of a Brookings Institution Panel Discussion, December 10th, Available Online at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2012/12/1020cuba/20121210_cuban_economy.pdf, Accessed 09-02-2013, p. 30-31)
MR. PICCONE: Let’s take one more. Wayne, up front here, please. end page 30
SPEAKER: Thank you. Back to the stalemate in which we now find ourselves with the Alan Gross case. There is growing pressure on Cuba to release …

• Mr. Piccone = Ted Piccone, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Foreign Policy Studies at The Brookings Institution, served eight years as a senior foreign policy advisor in the Clinton Administration

Second, Cuba wants to use Gross as leverage to negotiate with Washington on other bilateral issues — they’ll “say yes” to the counterplan.
Sweig 13 — Julia E. Sweig, Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies and Director for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, holds an M.A. and Ph.D. from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, interviewed by Robert McMahon, Editor of CFR.org, 2013 (“Talking to Cuba,” Council On Foreign Relations, January 25th, Available Online at http://www.cfr.org/cuba/talking-cuba/p29879?cid=rss-latinamericaandthecaribbea-talking_to_cuba-012513, Accessed 09-02-2013)
Washington continues to point to what it says is the biggest impediment, which is the case of Alan Gross, the U.S. citizen who U.S. officials said was in Cuba to help with Internet access; Cubans say he was subverting the state. He continues to languish in Cuba. How to resolve this issue?... Castro should know that orchestrated media events like his Hanukkah celebration are no substitute for reversing this wrong.

Tournament: Houston County | Round: 2 | Opponent: Cairo HC | Judge: Judy Butler
1NC — Apocalyptic Thinking Critique

First, the affirmative’s dramatization of impacts as existential risks replaces risk assessment with worst-case thinking.
Furedi 10 — Frank Furedi, Professor of Sociology at the University of Kent at Canterbury, holds a Ph.D. from the School of Oriental and African Studies at London University, 2010 ("Fear is key to irresponsibility," The Australian, October 9th, Available Online at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/fear-is-key-to-irresponsibility/story-e6frg6zo-1225935797740, Accessed 10-18-2010)
In the 21st century the optimistic belief in humanity’s potential for subduing the unknown and to become master of its fate has given way to the belief that we are too powerless to deal with the perils confronting us.
We live in an era where problems associated with uncertainty and risk are amplified and, through our imagination, mutate swiftly into existential threats. Consequently, it is rare that unexpected natural events are treated as just that.
Rather, they are swiftly dramatised and transformed into a threat to human survival. The clearest expression of this tendency is the dramatisation of weather forecasting.
Once upon a time the television weather forecasts were those boring moments when you got up to get a snack. But with the invention of concepts such as "extreme weather", routine events such as storms, smog or unexpected snowfalls have acquired compelling entertainment qualities.
This is a world where a relatively ordinary, technical, information-technology problem such as the so-called millennium bug was interpreted as a threat of apocalyptic proportions, and where a flu epidemic takes on the dramatic weight of the plot of a Hollywood disaster movie.
Recently, when the World Health Organisation warned that the human species was threatened by the swine flu, it became evident that it was cultural prejudice rather than sober risk assessment that influenced much of present-day official thinking.
In recent times European culture has become confused about the meaning of uncertainty and risk. Contemporary Western cultural attitudes towards uncertainty, chance and risk are far more pessimistic and confused than they were through most of the modern era. Only rarely is uncertainty perceived as an opportunity to take responsibility for our destiny. Invariably uncertainty is represented as a marker for danger and change is often regarded with dread.
Frequently, worst-case thinking displaces any genuine risk-assessment process. Risk assessment is based on an attempt to calculate the probability of different outcomes. Worst-case thinking—these days known as precautionary thinking—is based on an act of imagination. It imagines the worst-case scenario and demands that we take action on that basis.

Second, this causes serial policy failure — acting based on worst-case possibilities ruins decision-making.
Evans 12 — Dylan Evans, Lecturer in Behavioral Science at University College Cork School of Medicine, holds a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the London School of Economics, 2012 ("Nightmare Scenario: The Fallacy of Worst-Case Thinking," Risk Management, April 2nd, Available Online at http://www.rmmagazine.com/2012/04/02/nightmare-scenario-the-fallacy-of-worst-case-thinking/, Accessed 10-10-2013)
There’s something mesmerizing about apocalyptic scenarios. Like an alluring femme fatale, they exert an uncanny pull on the imagination. That is why what security expert Bruce Schneier calls "worst-case thinking" is so dangerous. It substitutes imagination for thinking, speculation for risk analysis and fear for reason.
One of the clearest examples of worst-case thinking was the so-called "1 doctrine," which Dick Cheney is said to have advocated while he was vice president in the George W. Bush administration. According to journalist Ron Suskind, Cheney first proposed the doctrine at a meeting with CIA Director George Tenet and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice in November 2001.
Responding to the thought that Al Qaeda might want to acquire a nuclear weapon, Cheney apparently remarked: "If there’s a 1 chance that Pakistani scientists are helping Al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. It’s not about our analysis…It’s about our response."
By transforming low-probability events into complete certainties whenever the events are particularly scary
AND
the extreme but improbable risks and does a poor job at assessing outcomes."

Third, this is the most important impact — training students to make good decisions is debate’s fundamental purpose.
Strait and Wallace 8 — L. Paul Strait, Ph.D. Candidate in Communication at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Southern California, and Brett Wallace, M.A. Candidate in Security Policy Studies at George Washington University, 2008 ("Academic Debate as a Decision-Making Game: Inculcating The Virtue of Practical Wisdom," Contemporary Argumentation and Debate, Volume 29, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via EBSCOhost Communication 26 Mass Media Complete, p. 3-6)
Practical Wisdom
Since the inception of modern academic debate, much of the praise it has received
AND
the highest government officials to the most inconsequential members of society, uses.
Aristotle (c. 330BCE/1941a) argues that this decision-making process combines desire and reasoning in the act of deliberation focused on some end. The ability to make good decisions (and to follow through with them) is associated with the virtue of practical wisdom: end page 3
Practical wisdom... is concerned with things human and things about which it is possible
AND
, and practice is concerned with particulars. (231141b 6-16).
This underlies our contention that practical wisdom is the final cause of debate. Practical wisdom is broad, provides coherence and unity in a non-arbitrary way, and is value-neutral with respect to the growing divide between the policy-focused and the critically-inclined. Non-practical ends are not helpful – as Aristotle (c. 330BCE/1941a) argues:
The origin of action—its efficient, not its final cause—is choice, and that of choice is desire and reasoning with a view to an end... Intellect itself, however, moves nothing, but only the intellect which aims at an end and is practical; for this rules the productive intellect as well, since everyone who makes makes for an end, and that which is made is not an end in the unqualified sense. (231139a32 – 37).
Practical ends that are not unqualified—e.g., Mitchell’s (1995)
AND
highest quality of skills, while at the same time preserving competitive equity.
The ability to make decisions deriving from deliberation, argumentation or debate, is that
AND
is considered the appropriate decision-maker(s) must be identified:
The appropriate decision makers are those necessary to the ultimate implementation of the decision. You may win adherence of fellow students to the proposition that the midterm exam should count less than the final paper in grading your class, but if the professor says no, little is gained... It is important end page 5 for... arguers to recognize who the appropriate decision makers are. (Rieke 26 Sillars, 1993, p. 2).
Since policy debate aims at determining whether a particular course of action is expedient all arguments which misapprehend the appropriate decision maker(s) are red herrings and interfere with true rational deliberation.
Academics from outside the contest debate community make this argument in different ways in discussing
AND
success, and preparation for college and employment" (p. 49).

Finally, hyperbolic extinction impacts should be rejected. The alternative is to vote against the affirmative because their 1AC has made effective decision-making impossible.
Gross and Gilles 12 — Mathew Barrett Gross, New Media Strategist who served as the Director of Internet Communications for Howard Dean’s 2004 presidential campaign, and Mel Gilles, Director of Sol Kula Yoga and Healing, 2012 ("How Apocalyptic Thinking Prevents Us from Taking Political Action," The Atlantic, April 23rd, Available Online at http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/04/how-apocalyptic-thinking-prevents-us-from-taking-political-action/255758/, Accessed 10-10-2013)
Flip through the cable channels for long enough, and you’ll inevitably find the apocalypse
AND
Nile virus, are the looming specter of apocalypse darkening our nation’s horizon.
How to make sense of it all? After all, not every scenario can
AND
rapid reversal of the world’s magnetic poles might seem terrifyingly likely and imminent.
The last time apocalyptic anxiety spilled into the mainstream to the extent that it altered the course of history — during the Reformation — it relied on a revolutionary new communications technology: the printing press. In a similar way, could the current surge in apocalyptic anxiety be attributed in part to our own revolution in communications technology?
The media, of course, have long mastered the formula of packaging remote possibilities
AND
. "They don’t teach that in Sunday school, but it’s true."
Nothing inspires fear like the end of the world, and ever since Y2K,
AND
an Arab terrorist poisoning that drinking supply, resulting in millions of casualties?
Yet not all of the crises or potential threats before us are equal, nor are they equally probable – a fact that gets glossed over when the media equate the remote threat of a possible event, like epidemics, with real trends like global warming.
Over the last decade, the 24-hour news cycle and the proliferation of
AND
flu, or swine flu also never lived up to their media hype.
This over-reliance on the apocalyptic narrative causes us to fear the wrong things
AND
the likely impact of the worst-case model of any given threat?

Tournament: Calhoun | Round: 2 | Opponent: MBA CD | Judge:
First, Rafael Caro Quintero was in prison for killing a DEA Agent but Mexico released him early without telling the United States. Justice demands that the plan be conditioned on Caro Quintero’s apprehension and extradition.
Bensinger 8/29 — Peter Bensinger, served as administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 1976 to 1981, 2013 (“Perspective: A travesty of justice,” Chicago Tribune, August 29th, Available Online at http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-08-29/opinion/ct-oped-0830-dea-20130830_1_drug-cartel-u-s-consulate-rafael-caro-quintero, Accessed 09-03-2013)
Enrique "Kiki" Camarena, a special agent with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, left the U.S. Consulate in Guadalajara, Mexico, the afternoon of Feb. 7, 1985, to have lunch with his wife. He was kidnapped by several police officers working under the direction of Rafael Caro Quintero, head of the Guadalajara drug cartel.
The United States must make clear its outrage at the release of Caro Quintero. And Mexico must bring him to justice.

Second, insisting on extradition as a condition for engagement is vital to preserve U.S.-Mexico relations and maintain law and order. The signal of the counterplan is key.
DMN 8/12 — Dallas Morning News, 2013 (“Mexican cartel leader’s release an outrage,” August 12th, Available Online at http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130812-editorial-mexican-cartel-leaders-release-an-outrage.ece, Accessed 09-03-2013)
A Mexican judge’s decision to release drug cartel leader Rafael Caro Quintero makes our blood boil.
Caro Quintero’s extradition would send a strong message about the priority Peña Nieto places on close U.S. relations — and on serving notice to other cartel leaders that they will not escape justice for their crimes.

Tournament: Calhoun | Round: 2 | Opponent: MBA CD | Judge:
A. Uniqueness — Chinese investment in Latin America is strong and increasing.
Economic Observer 13 — Byline Wang Xiaoxia, Economic Observer, Translated by Worldcrunch (“In America's Backyard: China's Rising Influence In Latin America,” Worldcrunch/Economic Observer, May 6, 2013, Available Online: http://worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/, Accessed: 05/25/2013)
Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans... In 2011, the U.S.-Latin American trade volume was $351 billion.

B. Link — Influence is zero sum — Latin America allows Chinese investment because of lack of US economic engagement.
Erikson and Chen 7 — Daniel P. Erikson, Senior Associate for U.S. policy at the Inter-American Dialogue and coeditor of Transforming Socialist Economies: Lessons for Cuba and Beyond, and Janice Chen, joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and Georgetown University Law Center, former intern at Inter-American Dialogue (“China, Taiwan, and the Battle for Latin America,” The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs Journal, Tufts University, Summer, 2007, 31 Fletcher F. World Aff. 69, Available Online from Lexis Nexis Law Journals)
Meanwhile, China's galloping entrance into the Latin American market for energy resources and other commodities has been accompanied by an accelerating pace of high-level visits by Chinese officials to the region over the past few years … Nervousness about China's rise runs deeper among the smaller economies such as those of Central America, which do not enjoy Brazil's or Argentina's abundance in export commodities and are inclined to view the competition posed by the endless supply of cheap Chinese labor as a menace to their nascent manufacturing sectors.

C. Impact — Chinese investment in Latin America key to economic growth and regime stability.
Ellis 11 — R. Evan Ellis, professor of national security studies, modeling, gaming, and simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University, with a research focus on Latin America’s relationships with external actors, including China, Russia, and Iran, Ph.D. in Political Science (“Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study, Joint Force Quarterly, A Publication of the National Defense University Press, Issue 60, 1st Quarter 2011, Available Online: http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.pdf, Accessed: 05/22/2013)
Access to Latin American Markets. Latin American markets are becoming increasingly valuable for Chinese companies because they allow the PRC to expand and diversify its export base at a time when economic growth is slowing in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe … In addition, the PRC has leveraged hopes of access to Chinese markets by Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica to secure bilateral free trade agreements, whose practical effect is to move Latin America away from a U.S.-dominated trading block (the Free Trade Area of the Americas) in which the PRC would have been disadvantaged.

Chinese economic decline risks internal collapse and war over Taiwan.
Lewis 8 — Dan Lewis, Research Director of the Economic Research Council, 2008 (“Industry will put innovation on fast track,” World Finance, May 13th, Available Online at http://www.worldfinance.com/home/final-bell/the-nightmare-of-a-chinese-economic-collapse, Accessed 11/26/2012)
A reduction in demand for imported Chinese goods would quickly entail a decline in China’s economic growth rate … In the very worst case scenario, a Chinese government might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan – whom America is pledged to defend.

Tournament: Alpharetta Treasure Hunt | Round: 3 | Opponent: Killian Hills Christian School HM | Judge: Mili Raina
First, the affirmative is caught up in the cult of reputation—the assumption that the U.S.’s credibility is its own possession and that it spills over across issues and to other countries is demonstrably false.
Tang 5 — Shiping Tang, Associate Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, Co-director of the Sino-American Security Dialogue, 2005 ("Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict," Security Studies, Volume 14, Number 1, January-March, p. 41-45)
Two implicitly related notions underpin this belief system. The first notion is that one’s
AND
reputation, the cult puts far too much value on an illusory entity.
Furthermore, as a belief system, the cult dictates an "operational code"
AND
been rampant, indicating the cult’s prevalence.31 end page 41
There is, however, a fatal flaw in the cult’s logic, for states
AND
the state never assigns reputation to other states based on their past behavior.
Rivalry has long been recognized as the most intensive type of international conflict and the most likely scenario for reputation to matter.32 The U.S.-Soviet rivalry was the first and perhaps the last true global rivalry in history, and both sides had global commitments. If reputation matters at all, one would expect it to have been paramount in the crisis-bargaining process between these two rivals.33
Both Ted Hopf and Daryl Press have examined the role of reputation in the Soviet
AND
and acted accordingly (for example, by taking an extremely hardline approach).
The evidence that Press uncovered deals a devastating blow to the logic of the cult
AND
to follow the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan."38 end page 44
Likewise, the Soviet Union was reluctant to underestimate U.S. resolve even after repeated U.S. retreats from the Third World.39
In a different setting, Jonathan Mercer also uncovered convincing evidence against the logic of the cult. For instance, while Germany backed down in the first Morocco crisis, neither France nor the United Kingdom nor Russia assigned a reputation of irresoluteness to Germany in the next crisis that arose (that in Bosnia-Herzegovina). Likewise, despite the fact that Russia backed down in the Bosnia-Herzegovina crisis, neither Germany nor Austria believed Russia to be irresolute.40
Therefore, the only plausible conclusion that we can draw is that although the cult
AND
should clearly apply; their own actions negate the logic of their belief.

Second, the U.S. can’t control the perceptions of others—the underlying assumptions of the cult of reputation are logically and empirically bankrupt.
Fettweis 8 — Christopher J. Fettweis, Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs in the National Security Decision Making Department at the U.S. Naval War College, holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Comparative Politics from the University of Maryland-College Park, 2007-2008 ("Credibility and the War on Terror," Political Science Quarterly, Volume 122, Number 4, Winter, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via IngentaConnect, p. 633)
Both logic and a preponderance of the evidence suggest that the current U.S
AND
the present, therefore, must outweigh the intangible interests of the future.
The behavior of the United States is not driven by only tangible, material measures
AND
for both the extent of its acceptance and the depth of its flaws. 

Third, this turns the case—the belief in credibility empirically causes war.
Tang 5 — Shiping Tang, Associate Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, Co-director of the Sino-American Security Dialogue, 2005 ("Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict," Security Studies, Volume 14, Number 1, January-March, p. 46)
Decisionmakers’ persistent concern for losing reputation has brought unnecessary bloodiness to international politics: too
AND
which friend would trust us then?" (Type I-a).43 

The alternative is to stop believing in credibility.
Basing decisions on perceptions of credibility makes serial policy failure inevitable—decades of scholarship are on our side.
Fettweis 9 — Christopher J. Fettweis, Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs in the National Security Decision Making Department at the U.S. Naval War College, holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and Comparative Politics from the University of Maryland-College Park, 2009 ("Madmen in Authority: Threats, Pathology and Grand Strategy," Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, June, Available Online at http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p314364_index.html , p. 4-6)
Many academic fields deal with pathology in one form or another. Individual and group
AND
that drive destructive state behavior. The United States suffers from a number.
The "credibility imperative" is a clear example, one that continues to have
AND
at the negotiating table, and is worth protecting at almost any cost.
This belief rests on a shaky foundation, to put it mildly. Decades of
AND
solid credibility was a national imperative, it would be far better off.
This paper proceeds from this point forward with a value-based assumption: Strategic
AND
their own good and for that of the international system as a whole.

Tournament: Alpharetta Treasure Hunt | Round: 2 | Opponent: Chattahoochee HW | Judge: Tyler Mauro
First, the plan shifts the Obama administration’s diplomatic focus from the Middle East to Latin America — the link is unique.
Oppenheimer 9/28 — Andres Oppenheimer, Syndicated Columnist for the Miami Herald, was a member of the Miami Herald team that won the 1987 Pulitzer Prize, 2013 ("U.S. should avoid ’Latin America fatigue’," Miami Herald, September 28th, Available Online at http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/09/28/3655423/andres-oppenheimer-us-should-avoid.html~~23storylink=cpy, Accessed 09-30-2013)
President Barack Obama’s state-of-the-world speech before the United Nations General Assembly last week did not mention any Latin American country, and virtually omitted the region as a whole. It was a major mistake, but it shouldn’t surprise us.
Despite its flip-flops and occasional blunders, Obama’s foreign policy has been a great improvement over former President George W. Bush’s arrogant diplomacy but it won’t win any prize for its interest or commitment to Latin America.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry may just as well change his title to U.S. Secretary of the Middle East, because that’s where he’s virtually living these days. Kerry’s first seven foreign trips after taking office on Feb. 1 were to Europe and the Middle East, and only two of his 14 trips abroad so far have been to Latin America, according to the U.S. State Department’s website.
(Cautionary note: if by some miracle Kerry pulls off a lasting Israeli-Palestinian accord, I’ll eat my words and pray that nobody remembers these lines.)
Obama’s Tuesday speech at the U.N. General Assembly was entirely devoted to the Middle East and North Africa. He only mentioned Latin America tangentially when he said that "from Africa to the Americas" democracies have proven to be more successful than dictatorships, and that "the same will hold true for the Arab world."
By contrast, several of Obama’s predecessors often referred to their grand plans for the region during their U.N. speeches. But Obama, unlike former Presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, has not proposed regional trade or investment plans with Latin America.

Second, the U.S. must conserve diplomatic capital — key to international support and US national security.
Schaefer 2K — Brett D. Schaefer, Fellow in International Regulatory Affairs at the Heritage Foundation, former assistant for international criminal court policy at the Pentagon, M.A. in international development from the School of International Service at American University ("Green Creep: The Increasing Influence of Environmentalism in U.S. Foreign Policy," In The Greening of
U.S. Foreign Policy, ed. Terry L. Anderson and Henry I. Miller, Stanford, CA: Hoover Press, p. 46. Available Online from Amazon Preview)
Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U.S. national interests and expressing U.S. concerns and priorities to foreign nations.  The daily conduct of diplomacy through U.S. missions and representatives is essential in articulating U.S. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad.  
Because diplomacy currency is finite—clearly, foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U.S. concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.  Traditionally, these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions, supporting our applies, securing vital resources, and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996, xi-xvii).

Third, focused US engagement in the Middle East key to prevent regional instability.
Kahl 13 — Colin Kahl, Associate Professor at Georgetown’s Walsh School of Foreign Service, Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East ("Hard Choices for the New Middle East," Defense One, July 15, 2013, Available Online: http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2013/07/hard-choices-new-middle-east/66626/-http://www.defenseone.com/politics/2013/07/hard-choices-new-middle-east/66626/, Accessed: 08/09/2013)
The Obama administration may want to "pivot" away from the Middle East toward Asia, but events are not cooperating.
Millions take to the streets in Egypt, leading to a military takeover of a
AND
Palestinian peace process before the hope of two states for two peoples dies.
In recent years, the pace of change in the region has been so overwhelming
AND
protecting Israel’s security, and promoting the reforms essential for the region’s stability.

Finally, Middle East war is probable and devastating — strong U.S. involvement is needed to prevent nuclear escalation.
London 10 — Herbert I. London, President of the Hudson Institute—a non-profit think tank, Professor Emeritus and former John M. Olin Professor of Humanities at New York University, holds a Ph.D. from New York University, 2010 ("The Coming Crisis In The Middle East," Gatestone Institute—a non-partisan, not-for-profit international policy council and think tank, June 28th, Available Online at http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1387/coming-crisis-in-the-middle-east, Accessed 08-10-2013)
The coming storm in the Middle East is gaining momentum; like conditions prior to World War I, all it takes for explosive action to commence is a trigger.
Turkey’s provocative flotilla, often described in Orwellian terms as a humanitarian mission, has set in motion a gust of diplomatic activity: if the Iranians send escort vessels for the next round of Turkish ships, which they have apparently decided not to do in favor of land operations, it could have presented a casus belli. cause for war
Syria, too, has been playing a dangerous game, with both missile deployment and rearming Hezbollah. According to most public accounts, Hezbollah is sitting on 40,000 long-, medium- and short-range missiles, and Syrian territory has been serving as a conduit for military materiel from Iran since the end of the 2006 Lebanon War.
Should Syria move its own scuds to Lebanon or deploy its troops as reinforcement for Hezbollah, a wider regional war with Israel could not be contained.
In the backdrop is an Iran, with sufficient fissionable material to produce a couple of nuclear weapons. It will take some time to weaponize the missiles, but the road to that goal is synchronized in green lights since neither diplomacy nor diluted sanctions can convince Iran to change course.
From Qatar to Afghanistan all political eyes are on Iran, poised to be "the hegemon" in the Middle East; it is increasingly considered the "strong horse" as American forces incrementally retreat from the region. Even Iraq, ironically, may depend on Iranian ties in order to maintain internal stability.
For Sunni nations like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, regional strategic vision is a combination
AND
stand on two legs: if one, falls, the tent collapses.
Should this tent collapse, and should Iran take advantage of that calamity, it could incite a Sunni-Shia war. Or feeling empowered, and no longer dissuaded by an escalation scenario, Iran, with nuclear weapons in tow, might decide that a war against Israel is a distinct possibility.

 However implausible it may seem at the moment, the possible annihilation of Israel and the prospect of a second holocaust could lead to a nuclear exchange.
The only wild card that can change this slide into warfare is an active United States’ policy. Yet, curiously, the U.S. is engaged in both an emotional and physical retreat from the region.
Despite rhetoric which suggests an Iran with nuclear weapons is intolerable, the U.
AND
a national security albatross that must be disposed of as soon as possible.
As a consequence, the U.S. is perceived in the region as the "weak horse," the one dangerous to ride. In every Middle East capital the words "unreliable and United States" are linked. Those individuals seeking a moderate course of action are now in a distinct minority. A political vacuum is emerging, one that is not sustainable and one the Iranian leadership looks to with imperial exhilaration.
It is no longer a question of whether war will occur, but rather when
AND
should war break out, what does the U.S. do?
This is a description far more dire than any in the last century and, even if some believe that it is overly pessimistic, Arab and Jew, Persian and Egyptian, Muslim and Maronite tend to believe in its veracity — a truly bad sign.

Tournament: Houston County | Round: 4 | Opponent: Grady CH | Judge: Yarborough
1NC - Politics - Immigration Reform

1. Obama is pushing for immigration reform now- top priority
   Matthews 10/16 – Laura Matthews is a U.S. politics reporter for the International Business Times. (“2013 Immigration Reform Bill: 'I'm Going To Push To Call A Vote,' Says Obama”, International Business Times, 10/16/13, Available Online at: http://www.ibtimes.com/2013-immigration-reform-bill-im-going-push-call-vote-says-obama-1429220, Accessed 10/17/13).
   When Congress finally passes a bipartisan bill that kicks the fiscal battles over to early next year, the spotlight could return to comprehensive immigration reform before 2013 ends...“we can get immigration reform legislation passed in the House and signed into law.”
   2. Plan requires capital and domestic political backlash dooms engagement – sends signal of failure and can undo efforts. Means the link turns the aff.
   Haas and O’Sullivan 2K a. VP and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings, b. Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at Brookings Richard N. Haass and Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies 113, Survival, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000, pp. 113–35

Building support at home
Engagement strategies ... that it can deliver the incentives it extends.
PC key for Obama to pass Immigration Reform
Epstein 10/17 – Reid J. Epstein, worked at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, writer for Politico, New York correspondent for the Ottawa Citizen, and interned at The Wall Street Journal, graduated from Emory University, Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, (“Obama’s latest push features a familiar strategy” Politico, October 17, 2013, accessed 11/1/13, can be found online: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/barack-obama-latest-push-features-familiar-strategy-98512.html)

President Barack Obama made his plans for his newly won political capital official — he’s going to hammer House Republicans on immigration... and a dare to do better next time.

Comprehensive reform will boost every sector of the economy
Hinojosa-Ojeda, 12 -~-- Founding Director of the North American Integration and Development Center at UCLA (Winter 2012, Raul, Cato Journal, “The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2012/1/cj32n1-12.pdf)

The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform
The...mass deportation scenario.

Tournament: Houston County | Round: 4 | Opponent: Grady CH | Judge: Yarborough
1NC - Politics - Immigration Reform

1. Obama is pushing for immigration reform now- top priority
   Matthews 10/16 – Laura Matthews is a U.S. politics reporter for the International Business Times. (“2013 Immigration Reform Bill: 'I'm Going To Push To Call A Vote,' Says Obama”, International Business Times, 10/16/13, Available Online at: http://www.ibtimes.com/2013-immigration-reform-bill-im-going-push-call-vote-says-obama-1429220, Accessed 10/17/13).
   When Congress finally passes a bipartisan bill that kicks the fiscal battles over to early next year, the spotlight could return to comprehensive immigration reform before 2013 ends...“we can get immigration reform legislation passed in the House and signed into law.”
   2. Plan requires capital and domestic political backlash dooms engagement – sends signal of failure and can undo efforts. Means the link turns the aff.
   Haas and O’Sullivan 2K a. VP and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings, b. Fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at Brookings Richard N. Haass and Meghan L. O’Sullivan, Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies 113, Survival, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000, pp. 113–35

Building support at home
Engagement strategies ... that it can deliver the incentives it extends.
PC key for Obama to pass Immigration Reform
Epstein 10/17 – Reid J. Epstein, worked at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, writer for Politico, New York correspondent for the Ottawa Citizen, and interned at The Wall Street Journal, graduated from Emory University, Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, (“Obama’s latest push features a familiar strategy” Politico, October 17, 2013, accessed 11/1/13, can be found online: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/barack-obama-latest-push-features-familiar-strategy-98512.html)

President Barack Obama made his plans for his newly won political capital official — he’s going to hammer House Republicans on immigration... and a dare to do better next time.

Comprehensive reform will boost every sector of the economy
Hinojosa-Ojeda, 12 -~-- Founding Director of the North American Integration and Development Center at UCLA (Winter 2012, Raul, Cato Journal, “The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform,” http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2012/1/cj32n1-12.pdf)

The Economic Benefits of Comprehensive Immigration Reform
The...mass deportation scenario.

Tournament: Calhoun | Round: 2 | Opponent: MBA CD | Judge:
First, Obama is looking for a fight on the debt ceiling — he is refusing to negotiate in order to force the GOP to surrender.
Moore 9/23 — Stephen Moore, Editorial Board Member and Senior Economics Writer at the Wall Street Journal, 2013 (“The Non-Negotiator,” Wall Street Journal, September 23rd, Available Online at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304213904579092943047891198.html, Accessed 09-26-2013)
Republican House leaders are still stunned by President Obama's in-your-face phone call to Speaker John Boehner late Friday to warn that the White House won't negotiate on a debt-ceiling increase.
All of this means get ready for a dangerous game of debt-ceiling chicken in the weeks ahead.

Second, Obama has the upper hand on the debt ceiling despite setbacks on other issues. Democratic unity and Republican infighting are crucial for Obama to stick to his red line and refuse to negotiate.
Liasson 9/21 — Mara Liasson, National Political Correspondent for National Public Radio, 2013 (“Have Obama's Troubles Weakened Him For Fall's Fiscal Fights?,” NPR, September 21st, Available Online at http://www.wbur.org/npr/224494760/have-obamas-troubles-weakened-him-for-falls-fiscal-fights, Accessed 09-26-2013)
President Obama has had a tough year. He failed to pass gun legislation. Plans for an immigration overhaul have stalled in the House.
It's a high-stakes game of chicken, and one where the White House feels confident it has the upper hand.

Third, the plan fractures Democratic unity and unites the Republicans in opposition to Obama — special interests magnify the link.
O’Neil 13 — Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, holds a B.A. from Yale University, an M.A. in International Relations from Yale University, and a Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University, 2013 (“Deciding Our Mutual Future,” Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead, Published by Oxford University Press, ISBN 0199898332, p. Kindle 165)
The hurdles to a deeper relationship also include domestic politics. In the United States, policy toward Mexico has been caught in the crosshairs of deep political divides, fodder for partisan skirmishes over immigration, trade, and border control.
Whether the National Rifle Association, the AFL-CIO labor federation, the National Council of La Raza (a Latino advocacy group), or the Federation for Immigration Reform (which works to limit U.S. immigration), each weighs in with policy agendas and campaigns that often ignore the bilateral ramifications.

Fourth, a weakened Obama that caves to Republicans and negotiates over the debt ceiling will destroy Constitutional government and decimate presidential powers.
Yglesias 9/26 — Matthew Yglesias, political blogger, Senior Editor at the Center for American Progress, staff writer for The Atlantic Monthly, former writer for The American Prospect, holds a B.A. from Harvard University, 2013 (“House GOP Just Showed Why Obama Can't Compromise on the Debt Ceiling,” Moneybox—a Slate blog, September 26th, Available Online at http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/09/26/house_debt_ceiling_bill_shows_why_compromise_is_unthinkable.html, Accessed 09-26-2013)
Over the past two days, I've started hearing murmurs from the CW-vendors that in light of the potentially catastrophic consequences of breaching the debt ceiling on October 17, the White House's stance that it won't negotiate with House Republicans over it is untenable and irresponsible. But the draft legislation House leaders were circulating to lobbyists yesterday and to their members this morning shows why that's wrong: The one thing Obama absolutely cannot do under any circumstances is negotiate over the statutory debt limit.
 A terrible monster was let out of the box in 2011 and the best thing Obama can possibly do for the country at this point is to stuff it back in and hopefully kill it.

Finally, strong presidential power is vital to address all global challenges — economy, environment, and war.
Posner 10 — Eric A. Posner, Kirkland and Ellis Professor at the University of Chicago Law School, 2010 (“POTUS-phobia,” The New Republic, Volume 241, Issue 18, November 11th, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via Academic Search Premiere)
Even if Ackerman is right that there is a greater chance that an extremist will become president today than in the past, he needs to show that the risk is great enough to justify a restructuring of the government that would weaken the executive's power to do good. Surely the executive has become a powerful institution because Americans want an activist government and Congress has usually been passive. Presidents have been on the right side of history more often than Congress has; and they also stand up well against the Supreme Court.
James Madison's vision of checks and balances has given way to a system of executive primacy, but rather than leading to tyranny, as he feared, democratic politics has—so far—kept the American president, sometimes for better and sometimes for worse, under control.

Tournament: Calhoun | Round: 3 | Opponent: Marist BA | Judge: Josh Clark
The debt ceiling hurts the economy — empirically proven
Miller 10/3 — Zeke J. Miller, a political reporter for TIME, he graduated from Yale University, 2013 (“Treasury Warns Of Debt Ceiling Crisis’ Economic Impact,” TIME, October 3rd, Available Online at http://swampland.time.com/2013/10/03/treasury-warns-of-debt-ceiling-crisis-economic-impact/, Accessed on October 3, 2013)
With less than two weeks remaining for Congress to raise the debt limit, the Treasury Department released a report Thursday revisiting the economic impact of the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, which sent financial markets into a tailspin and slowed economic growth…with many private-sector analysts believing that it would lead to events of the magnitude of late 2008 or worse, and the result then was a recession more severe than any seen since the Great Depression,” the report states.

Not raising the debt ceiling hurts the economy —2011 proves
Goldfarb 10/3 — Zachary A. Goldfarb, graduated from Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton, 2013 (“Long debate over debt ceiling could harm economy, report says,” The Washington Post, October 3rd, Available Online at http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/long-debate-over-debt-ceiling-could-harm-economy-reports-says/2013/10/03/992c482e-2c35-11e3-b139-029811dbb57f_story.html, Accessed on October 3, 2013)
The Obama administration warned Thursday that a prolonged debate over whether to raise the federal debt ceiling would harm the economy by depressing business and consumer confidence, …
The Treasury report explored the economic effects of the 2011 debt-ceiling impasse through multiple channels. The report found that from June through August 2011, consumer confidence fell 22 percent and business confidence fell 3 percent.

Tournament: Alpharetta Treasure Hunt | Round: 2 | Opponent: Chattahoochee HW | Judge: Tyler Mauro
Policy responses to specific crises is premised on the flawed epistemology of securitization — their solvency claims ignore structural and systemic causes of their impact— causes serial policy failure and turns the case.
Ahmed 11 — Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed, M.A. in Contemporary War and Peace Studies and a PhD in International Relations from the School of Global Studies at Sussex University, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development, Professor at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex, UK, 2011 (“The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society,” Department of International Relations, University of Sussex, UK, Global Change, Peace and Security, Vol. 23, No. 3, October 2011, 335–355, p.1-2. PDF, Accessed on August 20, 2013)
The twenty-first century heralds the unprecedented acceleration … processes of social polarization that can culminate in violent conflict.

Securitization normalizes political violence in the international system as a “rational strategy”— that inevitably triggers every major impact and causes extinction— we access root cause.
Ahmed 11 — Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed, M.A. in Contemporary War and Peace Studies and a PhD in International Relations from the School of Global Studies at Sussex University, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development, Professor at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex, UK, 2011 (“The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society,” Department of International Relations, University of Sussex, UK, Global Change, Peace and Security, Vol. 23, No. 3, October 2011, 335–355, p.345. PDF, Accessed on August 20, 2013)
Under traditional neorealist logic, a strategic response … if not planetary annihilation?61

The alternative is to reject to affirmative — that is key to challenge and deconstruct security as the dominant political approach to problem solving— the criticism is mutually exclusive with the aff.
Charret 09 — Catherine Charret, a PhD candidate at Aberystwyth University, UK in the department of International Politics and she hold a Masters degree from the London School of Economics, 2008 (“A Critical Application of Securitization Theory: Overcoming the Normative Dilemma of Writing Security,” International Catalan Institute for Peace, Barcelona, December 2008, Available Online at http://www20.gencat.cat/docs/icip/Continguts/Publicacions/WorkingPapers/Arxius/WP7_ANG.pdf, Accessed on August 21, 2013)
Critics of the CS have challenged its fixed conceptualization… replicate realist approaches of defending a sovereign order.

Tournament: Calhoun | Round: 3 | Opponent: Marist BA | Judge: Josh Clark
First, Cuba is a flagrant, willful, and persistent violator of human rights — repression is worsening.
Miami Herald 13 — Miami Herald, 2013 (“Human rights under abuse in Cuba,” Editorial, April 22nd, Available Online at http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/22/3358813/human-rights-under-abuse-in-cuba.html#storylink=cpy, Accessed 07-03-2013)
The State Department’s latest report on human-rights practices effectively puts the lie to the idea that the piecemeal and illusory changes in Cuba under Gen. Raúl Castro represent a genuine political opening toward greater freedom.
If anything, things are getting worse. The report, which covers 2012, says the independent Cuban Commission on Human Rights and Reconciliation counted 6,602 short-term detentions during the year, compared with 4,123 in 2011… report is a depressing chronicle of human-rights abuses and a valuable reminder that repression is the Castro regime’s only response to those who demand a genuinely free Cuba. Fundamental reform? Not a chance.

Second, reject engagement with human rights abusers — moral duty to shun.
Beversluis 89 — Eric H. Beversluis, Professor of Philosophy and Economics at Aquinas College, holds an A.B. in Philosophy and German from Calvin College, an M.A. in Philosophy from Northwestern University, an M.A. in Economics from Ohio State University, and a Ph.D. in the Philosophy of Education from Northwestern University, 1989 (“On Shunning Undesirable Regimes: Ethics and Economic Sanctions,” Public Affairs Quarterly, Volume 3, Number 2, April, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via JSTOR, p. 17-19)
A fundamental task of morality is resolving conflicting interests. If we both want the same piece of land, ethics provides a basis for resolving the conflict by identifying "mine" and "thine." If in anger I want to smash your end page 17 face, ethics indicates that your face's being unsmashed is a legitimate interest of yours which takes precedence over my own interest in expressing my rage. Thus ethics identifies the rights of individuals when their interests conflict.
But how can a case for shunning be made on this view of morality? Whose interests (rights) does shunning protect? The shunner may well have to sacrifice his interest, e.g., by foregoing a beneficial trade relationship, but whose rights are thereby protected? In shunning there seem to be no "rights" that are protected. For shunning, as we have seen, does not assume that the resulting cost will change the disapproved behavior. If economic sanctions against South Africa will not bring apartheid to an end, and thus will not help the blacks get their rights, on what grounds might it be a duty to impose such sanctions?
We find the answer when we note that there is another "level" of moral duties. When Galtung speaks of "reinforcing … morality," he has identified a duty that goes beyond specific acts of respecting people's rights … because we have an obligation to shun in certain circumstances, when we fail to do so others may interpret our failure as tacit complicity in the willful, persistent, and flagrant immorality.

Finally, any compromise sanctions evil — reject every instance regardless of consequences.
Gordon and Gordon 95 — Haim Gordon, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Education at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, and Rivca Gordon, general director of the Foundation for Democratic Education in Israel and chairperson of the Gaza Team for Human Rights, 1995 (“Introduction,” Sartre and Evil: Guidelines for a Struggle, Published by Greenwood Press, ISBN 031327861X, p. xvi-xviii)
Put differently, this book is also about us, a man and a woman who, often with others, have for years been struggling for freedom, for dialogue, for justice, for human rights in Israel and in the Middle East, and about what we have learned from Sartre that has helped us to conduct this daily struggle. Yet it should also be clear: We are not standard do-gooders. When we use the word "struggle," we mean fighting, attacking, pointing at evildoers, demanding that they be prosecuted… What attitudes interfere with such an intuitive response? We sought significant answers to these questions in Sartre's literature and drama.

Tournament: Alpharetta Treasure Hunt | Round: 2 | Opponent: Chattahoochee HW | Judge: Tyler Mauro
“Engagement” requires direct talks with the target government
Crocker 9 – Chester Crocker, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, Former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs (“Terms of Engagement”, New York Times, 9-13, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/opinion/14crocker.html?_r=0)
PRESIDENT OBAMA will have a hard time achieving his foreign policy goals until he masters some key terms ;;;The goal of engagement is to change the other country’s perception of its own interests and realistic options and, hence, to modify its policies and its behavior.