Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: Semis | Opponent: Pace PQ | Judge: Campbell, Melanie Brown, Scott Struth, Matt

1NC

Embargo limits drilling now – plan unlocks large-scale Cuban production.

Padgett ’8 Tim Padgett joined TIME in 1996 as Mexico City bureau chief covering Latin America. In 1999 he moved to Florida to become TIME’s Miami 26 Latin America bureau chief, reporting on the hemisphere from Tallahassee to Tierra del Fuego. He has chronicled Mexico’s democratization and drug war as well as the rise of Latin leaders like Lula and Hugo Chavez, "How Cuba’s Oil Find Could Change the US Embargo"¶ Time Magazine – Oct. 23, 2008 – internally quoting Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, a Cuba oil analyst at the University of Nebraska-Omaha. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,¶ 1853252,00.html~23ixzz13Li5cosN 

The Spanish energy company Repsol-YPF has entered into a production-sharing agreement
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able to do it to the extent the Cubans need are the Americans."

That trades-off with US- Mid-East oil ties.

Alhaiji and Maris ’4
~Dr. A. F. Alhajji is an energy economist and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern, Terry L. Maris is the founding executive director of the Center for Cuban. Business Studies and professor of management, "The Future of Cuba’s Energy Sector," Cuba Today, 2004, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/publications/cubatodaybookcomplete.pdf~~23page=105~~

The current economic, political, and social trends in Cuba indicate that¶ energy
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the US and other oil producing countries, especially in the Middle East.

That causes Saudi Prolif.

Guzansky ’13 Yoel Guzansky is a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University. His main research area is Gulf security. He has also served as Iran coordinator at Israel’s National Security Council. His recent publications include The Gulf States in a Changing Strategic Environment (2012), One Year of the Arab Spring: Global and Regional Implications, and The Gulf States: Between Iran and the West – Middle East Quarterly¶ Spring 2013, pp. 59-64 – available at: http://www.meforum.org/3512/saudi-arabia-pakistan-nuclear-weapon

Continued Iranian progress toward a nuclear weapon, Iraq’s increasing alignment with Tehran, and
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, to reduce risks and ensure the continuity of the House of Saud.

Saudi prolif causes nuclear war.

Edelman ’11 (Eric –Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 26 Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)
*Yes arms races —

1. Ideology — Saudi Arabia wants to preserve its stance as the leading Muslim nation.
   2. Security — Middle East countries feel threatened by a nuclear Iran.

Regardless of India’s reaction, any decision by the Saudi government to seek out nuclear
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Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

The plan’s appeasement.

Stern 6 (Martin, University of Maryland Graduate, Debunking detente, 11/27/06, http://www.diamondbackonline.com/article_56223e79-7009-56a3-8afe-5d08bfff6e08.html)

Appeasement is defined as "granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." Giving Iran international legitimacy and removing sanctions would have maintained peace with a potential enemy without changing the undemocratic practices of the enemy. If this isn’t appeasement, I don’t know how better to define the word.

That’s not topical – economic engagement is the establishment of economic contacts – not one time appeasement.

Resnick 01 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, "Defining Engagement", Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco

DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN ENGAGEMENT AND APPEASEMENT
In contrast to many prevailing conceptions of engagement, the one proposed in this essay
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between two states can be removed in a number of ways.(n31)
A more refined definition of appeasement that not only remains loyal to the traditional connotations
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off-again diplomatic negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.
Thus, a rigid conceptual distinction can be drawn between engagement and appeasement. Whereas
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or in exchange for certain concessions on the part of the target state.

Kerry’s focusing on Middle Eastern peace talks — a shift in his focus causes Israel-Palestine war.

YL 11/7, YaLibnan, Lebanon News Service, 2013, "Kerry warns Israel of Palestinian uprising if peace talks fail," http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/11/07/kerry-warns-israel-of-palestinian-uprising-if-peace-talks-fail/)//DR. H

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Israel on Thursday that it could face a third Palestinian uprising and deepening international isolation if American-brokered peace negotiations failed.
Both Israel and the Palestinians have given grim assessments of the lack of progress in their talks, which the United States helped revive last July after a three-year hiatus.
Kerry, speaking in Jordan a day after a visit to Israel, where he appealed for limits on its settlement building in the occupied West Bank, reported the negotiations had made "significant progress" in some areas.
He said it was important to keep aiming towards a full "final status" accord tackling issues at the core of the decades-old conflict, in contrast with more modest interim deals plagued by diplomatic deadlock and years of violence.
In an interview with Israel’s Channel 2 television recorded in Jerusalem before he left for Amman, Kerry painted a bleak picture of what might lie ahead if peace is not achieved.
"I mean, does Israel want a third Intifada?" he asked, referring to the danger of a new Palestinian uprising to follow those that erupted in 1987 and 2000.
"If we do not find the way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of delegitimization of Israel that has been taking place on an international basis."
Kerry was due to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman later on Thursday before returning to Jerusalem for more talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday.
"Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas reaffirmed their commitment to these negotiations despite the fact that at moments there are obviously tensions," Kerry said.
Friction over the talks has risen in the last week because of Israeli plans, announced in tandem with its release of 26 Palestinian prisoners, for some 3,500 new homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Palestinians have warned of a crisis if Israel continues to insist that they effectively agreed to turn a blind eye to the settlement expansion, in exchange for the progressive release of 104 long-serving inmates.
After meeting Abbas on Wednesday in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Kerry said Palestinians had never condoned settlements, which they and many countries view as illegal and the United States terms illegitimate.
Palestinians fear the enclaves, built on land Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war and which they seek for a future state, will deny them a viable country. Israel cites biblical and historical links to the territory.
Kerry, whose shuttle diplomacy helped to revive the talks, has set a nine-month schedule for an agreement, despite widespread skepticism.
"I remain absolutely committed to this ability to get a final status (agreement)," Kerry said at a news conference in Amman, repeatedly warning of "prolonged, continued conflict", violence and confrontation if the talks failed.

Plan shifts Kerry’s focus.

Anderson and Grewell 2k, (Terry L., Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center, J. Bishop, former  research associate for PERC. He is a graduate of Stanford University, the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and Northwestern Law School, "The Greening of Foreign Policy", PERC Policy Series: PS-20, December 2000, http://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf)

Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Foreign policy is a bag of
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domination of key geographic regions, supporting our allies, securing vital resources, 

Israel-Palestine war causes extinction — risk of war is high.

Beres 11/11, Louis, 2013, "The Future of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence: Debates about Iran and Palestinian statehood will have an effect on Israel’s mode of self-defense," http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/11/11/iran-israel-and-the-nuclear-threat-in-the-middle-east)//DR. H

A Palestinian state would make Israel’s conventional capabilities more problematic; it could thereby heighten the chances of a regional nuclear war. Although Palestine itself would obviously be non-nuclear, its overall strategic impact could nonetheless be magnified by continuously unfolding and more-or-less unpredictable developments in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Lebanon and elsewhere in this roiling and chaotic area.
A nuclear war could arrive in Israel not only as a "bolt-from
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reprisals might be met, in the future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.
For now, this would become possible only if a still-nuclearizing Iran were
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the first place, could reduce Israel’s escalatory exposure to a nuclear war.
Pertinent questions arise. With its implicit ("deliberately ambiguous") nuclear capacities, why should Israel need a conventional deterrent at all? After all, even after Palestinian statehood, wouldn’t all rational enemy states desist from launching any conventional or biological attacks upon Israel out of an entirely sensible fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation?
Not necessarily. Aware that Israel would cross the nuclear threshold only in very extraordinary circumstances, these enemy states could be convinced – rightly or wrongly – that as long as their attacks remained recognizably non-nuclear, Israel would always respond in kind.
The only credible way for Israel to deter large-scale conventional attacks after the
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were undertaken, lead quickly via escalation to various forms of unconventional war.
However unforeseen, Palestine, already a "nonmember observer state" at the United Nations, would have measurably corrosive effects on power and peace in the Middle East. As, by definition, the creation of this particular Arab state would come at the territorial expense of Israel, the Jewish state’s strategic depth would promptly and irretrievably diminish. Over time, Israel’s conventional capacity to ward off enemy attacks could be commensurately reduced.
If certain enemy states were to perceive Israel’s own sense of expanding weakness and possible
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prove calamitous for the "winner," as well as the "loser."
To be sure, a meaningful risk of regional nuclear war in the Middle East exists independently of any Palestinian state. Still, this unprecedented risk would be further enlarged if a 23rd Arab state were to appear more-or-less simultaneously with Iranian nuclear weapons. Above anything else, Israel must now do what is needed to prevent such coinciding and mutually-reinforcing and existential perils.

Text: The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba if and only if the governments of a majority of Latin American nations commit to:

—actively seeking a normalization process between the United States and Cuba, and

—compelling the Cuban government to work towards establishing representative democracy and better respect for human rights.

Counterplan solves the case—Latin American governments will say yes

Castañeda 9 - Jorge G. Castañeda, professor at New York University and fellow at the New America Foundation, was Mexico’s foreign minister from 2000 to 2003, April 21, 2009,  Wall Street Journal, "The Right Deal on Cuba," proquest)

The question of what to do about the embargo has once again cornered an American
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Raul Castro cannot grant him, especially with his brother back in charge.
Conversely, if Mr. Obama limits change to the recently announced freer flow of remittances and family visits to the island, Democrats in the House, Latin American leaders, and the Castros will remain unsatisfied. And if he insists on political change as a precondition for lifting the embargo, Mr. Obama would be pursuing the policy that his last 10 predecessors have fruitlessly followed.
There might be a way to square the circle. It begins with a unilateral end to the embargo: Nothing is expected from Cuba. But in exchange for eliminating the embargo, key Latin American players would be expected to commit to actively seeking a normalization process between Washington and Havana, and to forcing Cuba to establish representative democracy and respect for human rights.
As democrats who experienced authoritarian rule and sought international support in their struggle against it
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leaders toward a principled stance, Mr. Obama would turn the tables.
This policy would give the Cubans what they say they want: an unconditional end
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as a demand from Cuba’s friends — not as an imposition from Washington.
Mr. Obama would look great, since U.S. policy would shift in exchange for Latin leaders’ dedication to principles like democracy and human rights that he and they espouse. A clear commitment from Latin leaders to a normalization that would not follow the Vietnamese course (economic reform with no political change) would be a major foreign policy victory for Mr. Obama.

Unilaterally cooperating with Cuba destroys Latin American democracy.

Castañeda 8 - Jorge G. Castañeda, professor at New York University and fellow at the New America Foundation, was Mexico~’s foreign minister from 2000 to 2003, September-October 2008, "Morning in Latin America," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 5, proquest)

Realpolitik and fear of another exodus of Cuban refugees across the Straits of Florida may
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for other exceptions that would justify their existence by invoking the Cuban precedent.

That causes a global collapse.

Fauriol and Weintraub 95 – *director of the CSIS Americas program and Prof of Public Affairs at the University of Texas Georges and Sidney, The Washington Quarterly, "U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone", Lexis

The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department
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on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.

Extinction.

Diamond 1995 - Hoover Institute Senior Fellow (Larry, "Promoting Democracy in the 1990s," http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm) 

This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in
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which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

The aff creates a perfect world that they order themselves to – this engenders hate for the real world, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Paul Saurette, PhD in political theory at John Hopkins U, in 96 "I mistrust all systematizers and avoid them’: Nietzshce, Arendt and the Crisis of the Will to Order in INternational Relations Theory." Millenium Journal of International Studies. Vol. 25 no. 1 page 3-6
The Will to Order and Politics-as-Making The Philosophical Foundation of the Will to Truth/Order •. I mistrust all systematizers and avoid them. A will to a system is a lack .of 21 integrity."
According to Nietzsche, the philosophical foundation of a society is the set of ideas
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, the Will to Order becomes .the fundamental philosophical principle of modernity. 

Only doing nothing in the instance of the plan promotes real peace and prevents inevitable extinction.

Nietzsche, ’78 The anti-christ Human, All too Human. Aphorism ~23284 1878
The means to real peace.— No government admits any more that it keeps an
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indeed you know, comes from a cloud—and from up high.

No food wars, and they don’t escalate.

Salehyan 08 (Idean, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ North Texas, Journal of Peace Research, "From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet", 45:3, Sage, DOI: 10.1177/0022343308088812)

A few caveats are in order here. It is important to note, again
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and can be managed if there is the political will to do so. 

Can’t solve Cuban sugar ethanol.

Sanchez ’11
Adriana E. Sanchez, NotiEn, News Agency, 2011, "Biofuels Fighting for Space in Central America and Cuba," http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/12797/Biofuels20Fighting20for20Space20in20Central20America20and20Cuba.pdf?sequence=1

Similar to Central America, Cuba’s potential to become a leader in biofuel production is
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an analyst for the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. 

Lifting the embargo causes US sugar price distortions.

Miami Herald 02 (6/26/02, "Cuba embargo under fire - Sally Grooms Cowal’s Group cites benefits for U.S.," http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/706185/posts)//DR. H

In addition, what would happen abroad to Brazil’s sugar market, one of the
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it would go against the free trade ideology espoused by Washington these days.
Is the U.S. going to harden the grip of Castro by granting
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Communist government subsidies in order to retain a share of the American market.

Multilat fails and is unsustainable.

Young et al 13 Kevin Young is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, David Held is Master of University College, and Professor of Politics and International Relations, at the University of Durham. He is also Director of Polity Press and General Editor of Global Policy, Thomas Hale is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, Open Democracy, May 24, 2013, "Gridlock: the growing breakdown of global cooperation", http://www.opendemocracy.net/thomas-hale-david-held-kevin-young/gridlock-growing-breakdown-of-global-cooperation
*We do not endorse the ableist language.

The Doha round of trade negotiations is deadlocked, despite eight successful multilateral trade rounds
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specific mix of causal mechanisms. Each of these are explained briefly below.
Growing multipolarity.
The absolute number of states has increased by 300 percent in the last 70 years
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range of interests, must agree in order for global cooperation to occur.
Institutional inertia.
The postwar order succeeded, in part, because it incentivized great power involvement in
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cases, design institutions that would organically adjust to fluctuations in national power.
Harder problems.
As independence has deepened, the types and scope of problems around which countries must
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thus far, impossible (Falkner et al. 2011; Victor 2011).
Fragmentation.
The institution-builders of the 1940s began with, essentially, a blank slate
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they now block and inhibit problem solving and reform at the global level. 

Engagement with Cuba wrecks US credibility.

Rubin ’11 - Labor Law Attorney and Washington Post Journalist, quotes the chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, quotes a report by the Associated Press, quotes the former deputy national security advisor, (Jennifer, August 18, 2011, "Obama’s Cuba appeasement", http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/obamas-cuba-appeasement/2011/03/29/gIQAjuL2tL_blog.html )HH

The chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was
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Gross, not engage in a quid-pro-quo with tyrants."
As bad as a prisoner exchange would have been, the administration actions didn’t stop
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French company Pernod Ricard to sell Havana Club rum in the United States."
Former deputy national security adviser Elliott Abrams explained, "It is especially offensive that
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for democracy should not be a subject of negotiation with the Castro regime."
The administration’s conduct is all the more galling given the behavior of the Castro regime. Our willingness to relax sanctions was not greeted with goodwill gestures, let alone systemic reforms. To the contrary, this was the setting for Gross’s imprisonment. So naturally the administration orders up more of the same.
Throughout his tenure, President Obama has failed to comprehend the cost-benefit analysis that despotic regimes undertake. He has offered armfuls of goodies and promised quietude on human rights; the despots’ behavior has worsened. There is simply no downside for rogue regimes to take their shots at the United States.
Whether it is Cuba or Iran, the administration reverts to "engagement" mode
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to throw gifts to tyrants in the expectation they will reciprocate in kind.

Single issues aren’t key to cred.

Lake, 10– Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., "Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)//DR. H

President Obama and his administration appear to recognize the need to bolster the authority and
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even deeper into multilateral institutions that can provide real checks on potential opportunism.

Plan kills Latin American relations.

Suchlicki 2k. (Jaime, University of Miami, s Emilio Bacardi Moreau Professor of History ¶ and International Studies and the Director of the Institute for Cuban ¶ and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. June "The U.S. Embargo of Cuba" http://www6.miami.edu/iccas/USEmbargo.pdf)

Cuba is not an important issue in U.S.-Latin American relations.
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tourism will flock to Cuba, to the detriment of the Caribbean economies. 

No impact to China rise.

Rosecrance et al 10 – (Richard, Political Science Professor @ Cal and Senior Fellow @ Harvard’s Belfer Center and Former Director @ Burkle Center of IR @ UCLA, and Jia Qingguo, PhD Cornell, Professor and Associate Dean of School of International Studies @ Peking University, "Delicately Poised: Are China and the US Heading for Conflict?" Global Asia 4.4, http://www.globalasia.org/l.php?c=e251)

Will China and the US Go to War?  If one accepts the previous analysis
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to territorial expansion and war with the US? The answer is no. 

plan reinvigorates pink tide..

Sadowski ’11
Richard Sadowski is a Class of 2012 J.D. candidate, at Hofstra University¶ School of Law, NY. Mr. Sadowski is also the Managing Editor of Production of¶ the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. XI. "Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and¶ Prevention within the Framework of the United¶ States’ Embargo" – ¶ Sustainable Development Law 26 Policy¶ Volume 12; Issue 1 Fall 2011: Natural Resource Conflicts Article 10 – http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=149726context=sdlp

Since its inception, the Cuban embargo has ebbed and¶ flowed in severity and
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Cuba and demonstrate resolve in¶ meeting the goals of the economic embargo.

That causes Russia war – miscalc.

Walser ’8
(Ray Walser, Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America at the Heritage Foundation – Chávez, Venezuela, and Russia: A New Cuban Missile Crisis? – WebMemo ~232064 — September 15th http://www.heritage.org/Research/LatinAmerica/wm2064.cfm)

Like his iconic mentor, Fidel Castro, Chávez thrives on mounting tensions and confrontation
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willingly or unwillingly, into additional confrontations with the U.S. A

Miscalc goes nuclear.

Gottemoeller ’8
(Rose Gottemoeller was sworn in as the United States Department of State’s Assistant Secretary for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance on April 6, 2009. She was the chief negotiator of the follow on for the Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty otherwise known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation. Since 2000, she had been with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – "U.S.-Russia Cooperation on Iran: Aftermath of the Summer War in Georgia," Carnegie Moscow Center, August- July 2008. PLESE NOTE – THIS CARD APPEARS IN A HOST OF CURRENT OPEN-SOURCE DEBATE DOCS AND THE URL THAT APPEARS ON THOSE CARDS MISDIRECTS TO A DIFFERENT Gottemoeller ARTICLE. The website below redirects to her October article:   http://www.scribd.com/doc/13031239/RussianAmerican-Security-Relations-After-Georgia)

No holds barred, no rules—the United States and Russia may be heading to a confrontation

2NC

6. Accidents result in extinction.

Toon ’7 (Owen B, chair – Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences – Colorado University, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are congregating in the world’s great urban centers,
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should be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Saudi Arabia fears the narrative that the US may abandon them for North American supplies.

Rogers 3/20
~2013 – Will Rogers is the Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). At CNAS, Mr. Rogers’ research focus is on science, technology and national security policy. He has authored or co-authored a range of publications on energy, climate change, environmental cooperation in Asia and cybersecurity, "America Committed to Gulf Security Despite Changing Relationship with Region’s Oil, says Gen. Dempsey," Center for New American Security, 2013, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2013/03/america-committed-gulf-security-despite-changing-relationship-regions-~~

America’s relationship with the Middle East’s energy resources is changing as U.S.
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- will have to be managed carefully. What a tightrope to walk.

US would sacrifice oil contracts from the Mid-East in exchange for Cuba – saves on transport costs

Fesler 09
~Lily Fesler, Research Associate, "Cuban Oil: Havana’s Potential Geo-Political Bombshell," June 11, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, http://www.coha.org/cuban-oil-havanaE28099s-potential-geo-political-bombshell/~~23sthash.XL8uloIO.dpuf~~
Cuban Offshore Oil¶ Desperate to end U.S. dependence on oil from
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, access to more oil sources could become a matter of serious import.

New oil markets makes Saudis perceive decline in US-Saudi ties.
House ’12
(not oft-disgruntled House, M.D., but Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and former publisher of The Wall Street Journal, Karen Elliott House. Carnegie Council Transcripts and Articles – November 30, 2012 – lexis)

QUESTION: Warren Hoge~28~, International Peace Institute.¶ Karen, there’s a
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basically one for every 150 men. So that’s the most organized group.

Cuban supplies differ from US supplies. They have heavy crude oil.

Alhaiji 26 Maris ’4
~Dr. A. F. Alhajji is an energy economist and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern, Terry L. Maris is the founding executive director of the Center for Cuban. Business Studies and professor of management, "The Future of Cuba’s Energy Sector," Cuba Today, 2004, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/publications/cubatodaybookcomplete.pdf~~23page=105~~
The Institute for Cuban 26 Cuban American studies states on its web site¶ that
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light crude oil reseres in order to achieve its goal of self sufficiency.

US Shale boom doesn’t trigger the link – overstated supply.

Husain ’13
~internally quoting Dr Bassam Fattouh, the Director of the Oil and Middle East Programme at the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Oxford University and professor at the School of Oriental and African Studies was in Dhahran. Syed Rashid Husain, Energy Columnist at Saudi Gazette, CEO at Husain’s Associates, Toronto, CANADA, Vice President at Al-Azzaz Est; Education: Institute of Business Administration, 6/2/13, "Breaking down US energy independence hype," Dawn, http://beta.dawn.com/news/1015486/breaking-down-us-energy-independence-hype~~
Last week, Dr Bassam Fattouh, the Director of the Oil and Middle East
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Middle East, the director at the Oxford Institute for Energy Research underlined.

US Shale is too short term to bridge energy independence.
Business Insider ’13
 ~Arthur Berman, (quoted in article) Oil Analyst, Labyrinth Consulting Services, 1/20/2013, "Oil Guru Destroys All Of The Hype About America’s Energy Boom," Business Insider, http://www.businessinsider.com/arthur-berman-shale-is-magical-thinking-2013-1?op=1~~23ixzz2WKIYV4kB~~
Not everyone believes the U.S. is capable of becoming energy independent thanks
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be short-lived, and certainly won’t be our bridge to independence.

US fracking won’t unlock an oil independence– the product’s quality is too low.
Owen ’13
~Jane Owen, resident and founder of Citizens League for Environmental Action Now (CLEAN), "Long-Term Costs Of Fracking Are Staggering," Climate Progress, 03/19/2013, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/19/1742171/long-term-costs-of-fracking-are-staggering/?mobile=nc~~
All the hype by the fossil fuel industry about energy independence from fracking (hydraulic
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rates of supply over time and have large environmental impacts in their extraction."

Large untapped reserves in Cuba

Sadowski ’11
Richard Sadowski is a Class of 2012 J.D. candidate, at Hofstra University¶ School of Law, NY. Mr. Sadowski is also the Managing Editor of Production of¶ the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. XI. "Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and¶ Prevention within the Framework of the United¶ States’ Embargo" – ¶ Sustainable Development Law 26 Policy¶ Volume 12; Issue 1 Fall 2011: Natural Resource Conflicts Article 10 – http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=149726context=sdlp
A U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Cuba’s offshore¶ oil fields hold
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cries that the embargo is largely a failure¶ and harms human rights.

Old studies wrong – large untapped reserves exist.

Schenk ’10
Christopher J. Schenk is Project Chief of the U.S. National Oil and Gas Assessment – ¶ GEOLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS RESOURCES OF THE NORTH CUBA BASIN, CUBA – http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1029/pdf/OF10-1029.pdf
The potential for undiscovered petroleum resources of the North Cuba Basin historically has focused on
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have significant potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources (Schenk, 2008).

Oil independence deteriorates US-Saudi ties

Tanter ’12
~RAYMOND TANTER, Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan; President of Iran Policy Committee Publishing; and former member of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush Administration, "The Geopolitics of U.S. Energy Independence," International Economy, Summer 2012, http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Su12_GeopoliticsEnergySymp.pdf~~

At issue is whether energy independence will cause¶ a revision of U.S
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like an Iranian nuclear weapon could wipe¶ out the tide toward isolationism.

US-Saudi interaction is fully dependent on oil – the plan removes that link

Congregalli ’13
~Matteo Congregalli, International Politics Journalist, "Without Oil. Without Allies: USA and the New American Dream of Independent Energy," Urban Times, 2/15/13, http://urbantimes.co/magazine/2013/02/usa-oil-saudi-arabia-independent-domestic-energy-supply/~~
Examples of oil-diplomacy are known to be neither smooth nor easy. Take
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are turning into a Saudi Arabia with burgers, baseball, and guns.

Domestic politics block a reorientation in the US’ strategy.

Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, "Empire’s Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America," New Labor Forum, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)SJF

It’s not going to happen. Efforts to implement any one of the above policy
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into a citadel of U.S. hard power in the Andes. 

Unworkable land and long-time frame

Soligo ’10
et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. The author writes a chapter within the book "Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation," a Brookings Publication, edited by Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska –obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 102

Three and a half billion gallons seems unrealistic for the foreseeable future. There is
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water and fertilizer, and other inputs would all need to be considered.

Castro hates it

Specht ’12 (Jonathan – Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D.,¶ Washington University in St. Louis 2012. "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States" – ExpressO – http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf)

To speak of a Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol industry is, at this point
AND
to 2 billion gallons of¶ sugar-based ethanol per year."¶ 4

Fidel’s shadow

Frank ’8 Havana-based Reuters correspondent Marc Frank is a former writer for the People’s Daily World – Reuters – Feb 22, 2008 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/02/22/cuba-castro-ethanol-idUSN2261316320080222

Cuba will only jump on the ethanol bandwagon if it can produce the biofuel from
AND
, I can’t imagine that happening for quite some time," he said.

1NR

Failed transition collapses Cuba—-prevents effective investment flows—-turns the Aff

Naím, 1 – editor of Foreign Policy (MOISÉS, "When Countries go Crazy", MARCH 1, 2001, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2001/03/01/when_countries_go_crazy)//eek

Some countries can drive other countries crazy. When people have this effect on one
AND
, the powerful interest groups that blinded him to the lessons of experience.

Severing unconditionality is uniquely meaningful on an engagement topic.  If you don’t specify, you’re unconditional

Kahler, 6 - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego (M., "Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait" in Journal of Peace Research (2006), 43:5, p. 523-541, Sage Publications)

Scholars have usefully distinguished between two types of economic engagement: conditional policies that require
AND
), and, among adversaries, only after coercive threats are first used.
The success of a conditional engagement strategy should also be contingent on a state’s influence
AND
incentives to trade with or invest in the target state are strong.2
Unconditional engagement strategies are more passive than conditional variants in that they do not include
AND
act as a transforming agent that reshapes the goals of the target state.

These are distinct strategies with meaningful policy differences

Kahler, 6 - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego (M., "Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait" in Journal of Peace Research (2006), 43:5, p. 523-541, Sage Publications)

We begin by developing a theoretical framework through which to examine strategies of economic engagement
AND
help to spur further research into this interesting yet under-studied subject.

"Substantial" requires certainty

Words and Phrases 64 (40W26P 759)
The words" outward, open, actual, visible, substantial, and exclusive
AND
or pertaining to any others; undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.
 

Resolved means definite

Random House 6 (Unabridged Dictionary, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolve)

re•solve  Audio Help   /r??z?lv/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation~~~ri-zolv~~~ Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation verb, -solved, -solv•ing, noun
–verb (used with object)

1. to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine (to do something): I have resolved that I shall live to the full.

Tournament: Golden Dessert | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Brophy MS | Judge: Michael Eisenstadt, John Vitzileos, Brett Lind
We advocate for the reinscription of the genealogy of Waman Puma de Ayala and Otabbah Cugoano -- this is the only way to properly de-link from colonial thought -- the aff doesn't solve.
Mignolo 12 (Walter, Professor at Duke University, Joint Appointments in Cultural Anthropology and Romance Studies, “Epistemic Disobedience and the Decolonial Option: A Manifesto,” Transmodernity: Journal of Peripheral Cultural Production of the Luso-Hispanic World)DR. H

As a result, we find the first manifestations
AND
metaphors that reveal where this door is.

Every instance of “linking” must be rejected -- that means every author of theirs.
Mignolo 12 (Walter, Professor at Duke University, Joint Appointments in Cultural Anthropology and Romance Studies, “Epistemic Disobedience and the Decolonial Option: A Manifesto,” Transmodernity: Journal of Peripheral Cultural Production of the Luso-Hispanic World, p one-ish)DR. H

2. The Epistemic Shift and the Emergence
AND
the coloniality of world power.6

3. Sequencing Disad -- the prioritization of their methodology is the epitome of American exceptionalism -- turns the case.
Lund, 01 (Joshua, “Barbarian Theorizing and the Limits of Latin American Exceptionalism”, Cultural Critique, 47 Winter, p. 54-90)

Two important concepts for Latin American(ist)
AND
epistemological plurality of Latin America.

Tournament: NDCA | Round: Octas | Opponent: MBA BR | Judge: JVoss, Andres Gannon, Carly
CP 1nc

The United States federal government should invoke the charter of the Organization of American States and impose comprehensive economic sanctions against members of Venezuela’s government and reduce United States oil purchases from Venezuela.
CP is popular among both parties and solves the aff
Taylor,  3/12/14 (Guy, Washignton Times, “Kerry: Sanctions possible for Venezuela”
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/12/kerry-sanctions-possible-venezuela/

The Obama administration is “prepared” to level sanctions against Venezuela but hopes to avoid such a move that would only worsen the South American nation’s faltering economy, Secretary of State John F. Kerry told a Capitol Hill hearing Wednesday.
Lawmakers from both parties in recent days call for a reduction of U.S. oil purchases from Venezuela and for sanctioning members of the government of leftist President Nicolas Maduro after clashes with opposition protesters in Caracas.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Florida Democrat, pressed Mr. Kerry Wednesday during a State Department budget hearing.
“We are prepared” if need be to invoke the charter of the Organization of American States and seriously consider sanctions, Mr. Kerry said.

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: Octas | Opponent: Chattahoochee AS | Judge: McIntosh, Val Gjerpin, Katie Brover, Adrienne

1NC

The plan’s appeasement.

Stern 6 (Martin, University of Maryland Graduate, Debunking detente, 11/27/06, http://www.diamondbackonline.com/article_56223e79-7009-56a3-8afe-5d08bfff6e08.html)

Appeasement is defined as "granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." Giving Iran international legitimacy and removing sanctions would have maintained peace with a potential enemy without changing the undemocratic practices of the enemy. If this isn’t appeasement, I don’t know how better to define the word.

That’s not topical – economic engagement is the establishment of economic contacts – not one time appeasement.

Resnick 01 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, "Defining Engagement", Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco

DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN ENGAGEMENT AND APPEASEMENT
In contrast to many prevailing conceptions of engagement, the one proposed in this essay
AND
between two states can be removed in a number of ways.(n31)
A more refined definition of appeasement that not only remains loyal to the traditional connotations
AND
off-again diplomatic negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.
Thus, a rigid conceptual distinction can be drawn between engagement and appeasement. Whereas
AND
or in exchange for certain concessions on the part of the target state.

Embargo limits drilling now – plan unlocks large-scale Cuban production.

Padgett ’8 Tim Padgett joined TIME in 1996 as Mexico City bureau chief covering
AND
Alvarado, a Cuba oil analyst at the University of Nebraska-Omaha.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,¶ 1853252,00.html~23ixzz13Li5cosN 

The Spanish energy company Repsol-YPF has entered into a production-sharing agreement
AND
able to do it to the extent the Cubans need are the Americans."

That trades-off with US- Mid-East oil ties.

Alhaiji and Maris ’4
~Dr. A. F. Alhajji is an energy economist and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern, Terry L. Maris is the founding executive director of the Center for Cuban. Business Studies and professor of management, "The Future of Cuba’s Energy Sector," Cuba Today, 2004, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/publications/cubatodaybookcomplete.pdf~~23page=105~~

The current economic, political, and social trends in Cuba indicate that¶ energy
AND
the US and other oil producing countries, especially in the Middle East.

That causes Saudi Prolif.

Guzansky ’13 Yoel Guzansky is a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University. His main research area is Gulf security. He has also served as Iran coordinator at Israel’s National Security Council. His recent publications include The Gulf States in a Changing Strategic Environment (2012), One Year of the Arab Spring: Global and Regional Implications, and The Gulf States: Between Iran and the West – Middle East Quarterly¶ Spring 2013, pp. 59-64 – available at: http://www.meforum.org/3512/saudi-arabia-pakistan-nuclear-weapon

Continued Iranian progress toward a nuclear weapon, Iraq’s increasing alignment with Tehran, and
AND
, to reduce risks and ensure the continuity of the House of Saud.

Saudi prolif causes nuclear war.

Edelman ’11 (Eric –Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 26 Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

There is, however, at least one state that could receive significant outside support
AND
Middle East could lead to a new Great Game, with unpredictable consequences.

Text: The United States federal government should allow normal trade between the United States and Cuba if and only if the governments of a majority of Latin American nations commit to:

—actively seeking a normalization process between the United States and Cuba, and

—compelling the Cuban government to work towards establishing representative democracy and better respect for human rights.

Counterplan solves the case—Latin American governments will say yes—it triggers sustainable Cuban reform

Castañeda 9 - Jorge G. Castañeda, professor at New York University and fellow at the New America Foundation, was Mexico’s foreign minister from 2000 to 2003, April 21, 2009,  Wall Street Journal, "The Right Deal on Cuba," proquest)

The question of what to do about the embargo has once again cornered an American
AND
Raul Castro cannot grant him, especially with his brother back in charge.
Conversely, if Mr. Obama limits change to the recently announced freer flow of remittances and family visits to the island, Democrats in the House, Latin American leaders, and the Castros will remain unsatisfied. And if he insists on political change as a precondition for lifting the embargo, Mr. Obama would be pursuing the policy that his last 10 predecessors have fruitlessly followed.
There might be a way to square the circle. It begins with a unilateral end to the embargo: Nothing is expected from Cuba. But in exchange for eliminating the embargo, key Latin American players would be expected to commit to actively seeking a normalization process between Washington and Havana, and to forcing Cuba to establish representative democracy and respect for human rights.
As democrats who experienced authoritarian rule and sought international support in their struggle against it
AND
leaders toward a principled stance, Mr. Obama would turn the tables.
This policy would give the Cubans what they say they want: an unconditional end
AND
as a demand from Cuba’s friends — not as an imposition from Washington.
Mr. Obama would look great, since U.S. policy would shift in exchange for Latin leaders’ dedication to principles like democracy and human rights that he and they espouse. A clear commitment from Latin leaders to a normalization that would not follow the Vietnamese course (economic reform with no political change) would be a major foreign policy victory for Mr. Obama.

Unilaterally cooperating with Cuba destroys the credibility of all Latin American democracy—causes authoritarian backsliding

Castañeda 8 - Jorge G. Castañeda, professor at New York University and fellow at the New America Foundation, was Mexico~’s foreign minister from 2000 to 2003, September-October 2008, "Morning in Latin America," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 5, proquest)

Realpolitik and fear of another exodus of Cuban refugees across the Straits of Florida may
AND
for other exceptions that would justify their existence by invoking the Cuban precedent.

Latin American democracy’s a key model for democracy globally

Fauriol and Weintraub 95 – *director of the CSIS Americas program and Prof of Public Affairs at the University of Texas Georges and Sidney, The Washington Quarterly, "U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone", Lexis

The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department
AND
on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.

Extinction

Diamond 1995 - Hoover Institute Senior Fellow (Larry, "Promoting Democracy in the 1990s," http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm) 

This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in
AND
which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

Text: Bureaucrats, politicians and military personnel who think that they have their hands on the levers of American power should phase out a substantial portion of their economic restrictions toward Cuba.

CPs key to agency — plan kills it.

Mann, 97 (Frederick, http://www.mind-trek.com/reports/tl07e.htm, NG)

You might think, "So what? Why is this important?" Much of
AND
government" beast. Terrocrats are human. I can deal with them.

Extinction
Beres, 94– Ph.D., Professor of International Law, Purdue University (Louis Rene, "Self-Determination, International Law and Survival on Planet Earth", NG) 

With Hegel’s characterization of the State as "the march of God in the world
AND
annihilation looms even after the Cold War, n71 the citizens of conflicting States

Multilat fails and is unsustainable.

Young et al 13 Kevin Young is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, David Held is Master of University College, and Professor of Politics and International Relations, at the University of Durham. He is also Director of Polity Press and General Editor of Global Policy, Thomas Hale is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, Open Democracy, May 24, 2013, "Gridlock: the growing breakdown of global cooperation", http://www.opendemocracy.net/thomas-hale-david-held-kevin-young/gridlock-growing-breakdown-of-global-cooperation
*We do not endorse the ableist language.

The Doha round of trade negotiations is deadlocked, despite eight successful multilateral trade rounds
AND
specific mix of causal mechanisms. Each of these are explained briefly below.
Growing multipolarity.
The absolute number of states has increased by 300 percent in the last 70 years
AND
range of interests, must agree in order for global cooperation to occur.
Institutional inertia.
The postwar order succeeded, in part, because it incentivized great power involvement in
AND
cases, design institutions that would organically adjust to fluctuations in national power.
Harder problems.
As independence has deepened, the types and scope of problems around which countries must
AND
thus far, impossible (Falkner et al. 2011; Victor 2011).
Fragmentation.
The institution-builders of the 1940s began with, essentially, a blank slate
AND
they now block and inhibit problem solving and reform at the global level. 

Engagement with Cuba wrecks US credibility.

Rubin ’11 - Labor Law Attorney and Washington Post Journalist, quotes the chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, quotes a report by the Associated Press, quotes the former deputy national security advisor, (Jennifer, August 18, 2011, "Obama’s Cuba appeasement", http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/obamas-cuba-appeasement/2011/03/29/gIQAjuL2tL_blog.html )HH

The chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was
AND
Gross, not engage in a quid-pro-quo with tyrants."
As bad as a prisoner exchange would have been, the administration actions didn’t stop
AND
French company Pernod Ricard to sell Havana Club rum in the United States."
Former deputy national security adviser Elliott Abrams explained, "It is especially offensive that
AND
for democracy should not be a subject of negotiation with the Castro regime."
The administration’s conduct is all the more galling given the behavior of the Castro regime. Our willingness to relax sanctions was not greeted with goodwill gestures, let alone systemic reforms. To the contrary, this was the setting for Gross’s imprisonment. So naturally the administration orders up more of the same.
Throughout his tenure, President Obama has failed to comprehend the cost-benefit analysis that despotic regimes undertake. He has offered armfuls of goodies and promised quietude on human rights; the despots’ behavior has worsened. There is simply no downside for rogue regimes to take their shots at the United States.
Whether it is Cuba or Iran, the administration reverts to "engagement" mode
AND
to throw gifts to tyrants in the expectation they will reciprocate in kind.

Single issues aren’t key to cred.

Lake, 10– Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., "Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)//DR. H

President Obama and his administration appear to recognize the need to bolster the authority and
AND
even deeper into multilateral institutions that can provide real checks on potential opportunism.

Plan kills Latin American relations.

Suchlicki 2k. (Jaime, University of Miami, s Emilio Bacardi Moreau Professor of History ¶ and International Studies and the Director of the Institute for Cuban ¶ and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. June "The U.S. Embargo of Cuba" http://www6.miami.edu/iccas/USEmbargo.pdf)

Cuba is not an important issue in U.S.-Latin American relations.
AND
tourism will flock to Cuba, to the detriment of the Caribbean economies. 

No Bio-D impact.

Sagoff, 97 - Mark, Senior Research Scholar – Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs – U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, "INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT", 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N
Note – Colin Tudge - Research Fellow at the Centre for Philosophy at the London School of Economics. Frmr Zoological Society of London: Scientific Fellow and tons of other positions. PhD. Read zoology at Cambridge.
Simon Levin = Moffet Professor of Biology, Princeton. 2007 American Institute of Biological Sciences Distinguished Scientist Award 2008 Istituto Veneto di Scienze Lettere ed Arti 2009 Honorary Doctorate of Science, Michigan State University 2010 Eminent Ecologist Award, Ecological Society of America 2010 Margalef Prize in Ecology, etc… PhD 

Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that the earth stands
AND
sense, good for mankind. The most valuable things are quite useless.

No warming impacts.

Burnett, 12 – Sterling, Ph.D., Senior Fellow in Environment and Energy at the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), "Fraud and Heartland: A Scandal for Climate Alarmists, not Skeptics," 2-22, http://environmentblog.ncpa.org/fraud-and-heartland-a-scandal-for-climate-alarmists-not-skeptics/. 

Sadly (for him), Peter Gleick, the researcher at issue, could have
AND
," behind global warming skepticism. Who says the Progressive era has passed?

No food wars, and they don’t escalate.

Salehyan 08 (Idean, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ North Texas, Journal of Peace Research, "From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet", 45:3, Sage, DOI: 10.1177/0022343308088812)

A few caveats are in order here. It is important to note, again, that the most severe effects of climate change are likely to be felt in the future, and the future is inherently uncertain.4 While fundamental shifts in the environment are not inconceivable, our best bet for predicting what is to come is to look at what has transpired in the past. Since it is frequently argued that climate change will lead to resource scarcities and exacerbate inequality, it is possible to draw upon past evidence regarding these factors to develop a sense of how conflicts might unfold given changes in the Earth’s atmosphere. Additionally, I do not take issue with the claim that climate change will present considerable challenges for human societies and ecosystems more generally. Humanitarian crises stemming, in part, from climate change have the potential to be severe, and steps must be taken quickly to attenuate such contingencies. Rather, my purpose here is to underscore the point that environmental processes, by themselves, cannot explain why, where, and when fighting will occur; rather, the interaction between environmental and political systems is critical for understanding organized armed violence. First, the deterministic view has poor predictive power as to where and when conflicts will break out. For every potential example of an environmental catastrophe or resource shortfall that leads to violence, there are many more counter-examples in which conflict never occurs. But popular accounts typically do not look at the dogs that do not bark. Darfur is frequently cited as a case where desertification led to food scarcity, water scarcity, and famine, in turn leading to civil war and ethnic cleansing.5 Yet, food scarcity and hunger are problems endemic to many countries – particularly in sub-Saharan Africa – but similar problems elsewhere have not led to large-scale violence. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, food shortages and malnutrition affect more than a third of the population in Malawi, Zambia, the Comoros, North Korea, and Tanzania,6 although none of these countries have experienced fullblown civil war and state failure. Hurricanes, coastal flooding, and droughts – which are all likely to intensify as the climate warms – are frequent occurrences which rarely lead to violence. The Asian Tsunami of 2004, although caused by an oceanic earthquake, led to severe loss of life and property, flooding, population displacement, and resource scarcity, but it did not trigger new wars in Southeast Asia. Large-scale migration has the potential to provoke conflict in receiving areas (see Reuveny, 2007; Salehyan 26 Gleditsch, 2006), yet most migration flows do not lead to conflict, and, in this regard, social integration and citizenship policies are particularly important (Gleditsch, Nordås 26 Salehyan, 2007). In short, resource scarcity, natural disasters, and long-term climatic shifts are ubiquitous, while armed conflict is rare; therefore, environmental conditions, by themselves, cannot predict violent outbreaks. Second, even if local skirmishes over access to resources arise, these do not always escalate to open warfare and state collapse. While interpersonal violence is more or less common and may intensify under resource pressures, sustained armed conflict on a massive scale is difficult to conduct. Meier, Bond 26 Bond (2007) show that, under certain circumstances, environmental conditions have led to cattle raiding among pastoralists in East Africa, but these conflicts rarely escalate to sustained violence. Martin (2005) presents evidence from Ethiopia that, while a large refugee influx and population pressures led to localized conflict over natural resources, effective resource management regimes were able to ameliorate these tensions. Both of these studies emphasize the role of local dispute-resolution regimes and institutions – not just the response of central governments – in preventing resource conflicts from spinning out of control. Martin’s analysis also points to the importance of international organizations, notably the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, in implementing effective policies governing refugee camps. Therefore, local hostilities need not escalate to serious armed conflict and can be

Can’t solve Cuban sugar ethanol.

Sanchez ’11
Adriana E. Sanchez, NotiEn, News Agency, 2011, "Biofuels Fighting for Space in Central America and Cuba," http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/12797/Biofuels20Fighting20for20Space20in20Central20America20and20Cuba.pdf?sequence=1

Similar to Central America, Cuba’s potential to become a leader in biofuel production is
AND
an analyst for the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. 

2NC

Accidents result in extinction.

Toon ’7 (Owen B, chair – Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences – Colorado University, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are congregating in the world’s great urban centers,
AND
should be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Large untapped reserves in Cuba

Sadowski ’11
Richard Sadowski is a Class of 2012 J.D. candidate, at Hofstra University¶ School of Law, NY. Mr. Sadowski is also the Managing Editor of Production of¶ the Journal of International Business and Law Vol. XI. "Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and¶ Prevention within the Framework of the United¶ States’ Embargo" – ¶ Sustainable Development Law 26 Policy¶ Volume 12; Issue 1 Fall 2011: Natural Resource Conflicts Article 10 – http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=149726context=sdlp
A U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Cuba’s offshore¶ oil fields hold
AND
cries that the embargo is largely a failure¶ and harms human rights.

Old studies wrong – large untapped reserves exist.

Schenk ’10
Christopher J. Schenk is Project Chief of the U.S. National Oil and Gas Assessment – ¶ GEOLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS RESOURCES OF THE NORTH CUBA BASIN, CUBA – http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1029/pdf/OF10-1029.pdf
The potential for undiscovered petroleum resources of the North Cuba Basin historically has focused on
AND
have significant potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources (Schenk, 2008).

Saudi Arabia fears the narrative that the US may abandon them for North American supplies.

Rogers 3/20
~2013 – Will Rogers is the Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). At CNAS, Mr. Rogers’ research focus is on science, technology and national security policy. He has authored or co-authored a range of publications on energy, climate change, environmental cooperation in Asia and cybersecurity, "America Committed to Gulf Security Despite Changing Relationship with Region’s Oil, says Gen. Dempsey," Center for New American Security, 2013, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2013/03/america-committed-gulf-security-despite-changing-relationship-regions-~~

America’s relationship with the Middle East’s energy resources is changing as U.S.
AND
? The public perception on these issues - at home and abroad - will 

their evidence is from 2008 – Lippmann concludes 3 years later that perceived breakdown of relations causes prolif.

Lippman ’11 (Sr. Adjunct Scholar-Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.susris.com/2011/08/05/saudi-arabia~’s-nuclear-policy-lippman/)

So let us suppose that Saudi Arabia’s currently testy relationship with the United States deteriorated
AND
much so that Saudi Arabia might emerge less secure, rather than more.

Lack of oil relations causes rapid prolif

Black ’9
(Major Chris, master’s program at the Joint Forces Staff College, "Post Oil America and a renewable energy policy leads to the abrogation of the Middle East to China.," http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA53012526Location=U226doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

All of these factors have slowly led to Saudi Arabia wanting to assume a more
AND
diminishing American presence, which will intensify Saudi Arabian concerns for their security.

Domestic politics block a reorientation in the US’ strategy.

Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, "Empire’s Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America," New Labor Forum, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)SJF

It’s not going to happen. Efforts to implement any one of the above policy
AND
into a citadel of U.S. hard power in the Andes. 

No try or die framing — no transition coming.

Kagan, 12 ~Robert, 1-5, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe — Brookings, "New Year, Old Foreign Policy Problems," http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0105_international_relations_kagan~~

Meanwhile, the much-discussed "rise of the rest" has been overhyped
AND
will be the year Americans gain a renewed understanding of that enduring reality.

Extinction outweighs.

Nye, 86 (Joseph S. 1986; Phd Political Science Harvard. University; Served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs; "Nuclear Ethics" pg. 45-46)

Is there any end that could justify a nuclear war that threatens the survival of
AND
of that risk is a justifiable topic of both prudential and moral reasoning. 

Warming’s inevitable.

Mims 12 ~cites Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University’s climate change institute, 3/26/12, Christopher Mims, "Climate scientists: It’s basically too late to stop warming," http://grist.org/list/climate-scientists-its-basically-too-late-to-stop-warming/~~
*Warming’s inevitable – Mims cites 3 reasons –

1. Ice Sheets – the West Antarctic ice sheet and Greenland ice sheets have melted so much that natural climate feedbacks sent us past the tipping point.
   2. Natural gas – engineers are harvesting it from the bottom of the ocean which drastically increases carbon emissions – their climate models don’t account for this.
   3. China – it’s the largest carbon emitter but refuses to hamper economic growth to reduce emissions – even if the US cuts its emissions, other countries won’t because of coal needs.

If you like cool weather and not having to club your neighbors as you battle
AND
government did act, we can’t control the emissions of the developing world.

Tournament: Samford | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Chattahoochee PW | Judge: Quinn, Lee Sedelmyer Slattery

1NC

Embargo limits drilling now – plan unlocks large-scale Cuban production.

Padgett 08 Tim Padgett joined TIME in 1996 as Mexico City bureau chief covering Latin
AND
Alvarado, a Cuba oil analyst at the University of Nebraska-Omaha.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,¶ 1853252,00.html~23ixzz13Li5cosN 

The Spanish energy company Repsol-YPF has entered into a production-sharing agreement
AND
able to do it to the extent the Cubans need are the Americans."

That trades-off with US- Mid-East oil ties.

Alhaiji and Maris ’4
~Dr. A. F. Alhajji is an energy economist and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern, Terry L. Maris is the founding executive director of the Center for Cuban. Business Studies and professor of management, "The Future of Cuba’s Energy Sector," Cuba Today, 2004, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/publications/cubatodaybookcomplete.pdf~~23page=105~~

The current economic, political, and social trends in Cuba indicate that¶ energy
AND
the US and other oil producing countries, especially in the Middle East.

That causes Saudi Prolif.

Guzansky ’13 Yoel Guzansky is a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University. His main research area is Gulf security. He has also served as Iran coordinator at Israel’s National Security Council. His recent publications include The Gulf States in a Changing Strategic Environment (2012), One Year of the Arab Spring: Global and Regional Implications, and The Gulf States: Between Iran and the West – Middle East Quarterly¶ Spring 2013, pp. 59-64 – available at: http://www.meforum.org/3512/saudi-arabia-pakistan-nuclear-weapon

The United States is still Saudi Arabia’s most effective security support, but if Washington
AND
, to reduce risks and ensure the continuity of the House of Saud.

Saudi prolif causes nuclear war.

Edelman ’11 (Eric –Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 26 Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

The Islamabad option raises a host of difficult issues, perhaps the most worrisome being
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to their nuclear arsenals; for instance, they might hide their weapons. 

The plan’s appeasement.

Stern 6 (Martin, University of Maryland Graduate, Debunking detente, 11/27/06, http://www.diamondbackonline.com/article_56223e79-7009-56a3-8afe-5d08bfff6e08.html)

Appeasement is defined as "granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." Giving Iran international legitimacy and removing sanctions would have maintained peace with a potential enemy without changing the undemocratic practices of the enemy. If this isn’t appeasement, I don’t know how better to define the word.

That’s not topical – economic engagement is the establishment of economic contacts – not one time appeasement.

Resnick 01 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, "Defining Engagement", Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco

DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN ENGAGEMENT AND APPEASEMENT
In contrast to many prevailing conceptions of engagement, the one proposed in this essay
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between two states can be removed in a number of ways.(n31)
A more refined definition of appeasement that not only remains loyal to the traditional connotations
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off-again diplomatic negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.
Thus, a rigid conceptual distinction can be drawn between engagement and appeasement. Whereas
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or in exchange for certain concessions on the part of the target state.

Kerry’s focusing on Middle Eastern peace talks — a shift in his focus causes Israel-Palestine war.

YL 11/7, YaLibnan, Lebanon News Service, 2013, "Kerry warns Israel of Palestinian uprising if peace talks fail," http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/11/07/kerry-warns-israel-of-palestinian-uprising-if-peace-talks-fail/)//DR. H

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Israel on Thursday that it could face a third Palestinian uprising and deepening international isolation if American-brokered peace negotiations failed.
Both Israel and the Palestinians have given grim assessments of the lack of progress in their talks, which the United States helped revive last July after a three-year hiatus.
Kerry, speaking in Jordan a day after a visit to Israel, where he appealed for limits on its settlement building in the occupied West Bank, reported the negotiations had made "significant progress" in some areas.
He said it was important to keep aiming towards a full "final status" accord tackling issues at the core of the decades-old conflict, in contrast with more modest interim deals plagued by diplomatic deadlock and years of violence.
In an interview with Israel’s Channel 2 television recorded in Jerusalem before he left for Amman, Kerry painted a bleak picture of what might lie ahead if peace is not achieved.
"I mean, does Israel want a third Intifada?" he asked, referring to the danger of a new Palestinian uprising to follow those that erupted in 1987 and 2000.
"If we do not find the way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of delegitimization of Israel that has been taking place on an international basis."
Kerry was due to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman later on Thursday before returning to Jerusalem for more talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday.
"Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas reaffirmed their commitment to these negotiations despite the fact that at moments there are obviously tensions," Kerry said.
Friction over the talks has risen in the last week because of Israeli plans, announced in tandem with its release of 26 Palestinian prisoners, for some 3,500 new homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Palestinians have warned of a crisis if Israel continues to insist that they effectively agreed to turn a blind eye to the settlement expansion, in exchange for the progressive release of 104 long-serving inmates.
After meeting Abbas on Wednesday in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Kerry said Palestinians had never condoned settlements, which they and many countries view as illegal and the United States terms illegitimate.
Palestinians fear the enclaves, built on land Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war and which they seek for a future state, will deny them a viable country. Israel cites biblical and historical links to the territory.
Kerry, whose shuttle diplomacy helped to revive the talks, has set a nine-month schedule for an agreement, despite widespread skepticism.
"I remain absolutely committed to this ability to get a final status (agreement)," Kerry said at a news conference in Amman, repeatedly warning of "prolonged, continued conflict", violence and confrontation if the talks failed.

Plan shifts Kerry’s focus.

Anderson and Grewell 2k, (Terry L., Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center, J. Bishop, former  research associate for PERC. He is a graduate of Stanford University, the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and Northwestern Law School, "The Greening of Foreign Policy", PERC Policy Series: PS-20, December 2000, http://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf)

Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Foreign policy is a bag of
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domination of key geographic regions, supporting our allies, securing vital resources, 

Israel-Palestine war causes extinction — risk of war is high.

Beres 11/11, Louis, 2013, "The Future of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence: Debates about Iran and Palestinian statehood will have an effect on Israel’s mode of self-defense," http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/11/11/iran-israel-and-the-nuclear-threat-in-the-middle-east)//DR. H

A Palestinian state would make Israel’s conventional capabilities more problematic; it could thereby heighten the chances of a regional nuclear war. Although Palestine itself would obviously be non-nuclear, its overall strategic impact could nonetheless be magnified by continuously unfolding and more-or-less unpredictable developments in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Lebanon and elsewhere in this roiling and chaotic area.
A nuclear war could arrive in Israel not only as a "bolt-from
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reprisals might be met, in the future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.
For now, this would become possible only if a still-nuclearizing Iran were
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the first place, could reduce Israel’s escalatory exposure to a nuclear war.
Pertinent questions arise. With its implicit ("deliberately ambiguous") nuclear capacities, why should Israel need a conventional deterrent at all? After all, even after Palestinian statehood, wouldn’t all rational enemy states desist from launching any conventional or biological attacks upon Israel out of an entirely sensible fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation?
Not necessarily. Aware that Israel would cross the nuclear threshold only in very extraordinary circumstances, these enemy states could be convinced – rightly or wrongly – that as long as their attacks remained recognizably non-nuclear, Israel would always respond in kind.
The only credible way for Israel to deter large-scale conventional attacks after the
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were undertaken, lead quickly via escalation to various forms of unconventional war.
However unforeseen, Palestine, already a "nonmember observer state" at the United Nations, would have measurably corrosive effects on power and peace in the Middle East. As, by definition, the creation of this particular Arab state would come at the territorial expense of Israel, the Jewish state’s strategic depth would promptly and irretrievably diminish. Over time, Israel’s conventional capacity to ward off enemy attacks could be commensurately reduced.
If certain enemy states were to perceive Israel’s own sense of expanding weakness and possible
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prove calamitous for the "winner," as well as the "loser."
To be sure, a meaningful risk of regional nuclear war in the Middle East exists independently of any Palestinian state. Still, this unprecedented risk would be further enlarged if a 23rd Arab state were to appear more-or-less simultaneously with Iranian nuclear weapons. Above anything else, Israel must now do what is needed to prevent such coinciding and mutually-reinforcing and existential perils.

Text: The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba if and only if the governments of a majority of Latin American nations commit to:

—actively seeking a normalization process between the United States and Cuba, and

—compelling the Cuban government to work towards establishing representative democracy and better respect for human rights.

Counterplan solves the case—Latin American governments will say yes

Castañeda 9 - Jorge G. Castañeda, professor at New York University and fellow at the New America Foundation, was Mexico’s foreign minister from 2000 to 2003, April 21, 2009,  Wall Street Journal, "The Right Deal on Cuba," proquest)

The question of what to do about the embargo has once again cornered an American
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Raul Castro cannot grant him, especially with his brother back in charge.
Conversely, if Mr. Obama limits change to the recently announced freer flow of remittances and family visits to the island, Democrats in the House, Latin American leaders, and the Castros will remain unsatisfied. And if he insists on political change as a precondition for lifting the embargo, Mr. Obama would be pursuing the policy that his last 10 predecessors have fruitlessly followed.
There might be a way to square the circle. It begins with a unilateral end to the embargo: Nothing is expected from Cuba. But in exchange for eliminating the embargo, key Latin American players would be expected to commit to actively seeking a normalization process between Washington and Havana, and to forcing Cuba to establish representative democracy and respect for human rights.
As democrats who experienced authoritarian rule and sought international support in their struggle against it
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leaders toward a principled stance, Mr. Obama would turn the tables.
This policy would give the Cubans what they say they want: an unconditional end
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as a demand from Cuba’s friends — not as an imposition from Washington.
Mr. Obama would look great, since U.S. policy would shift in exchange for Latin leaders’ dedication to principles like democracy and human rights that he and they espouse. A clear commitment from Latin leaders to a normalization that would not follow the Vietnamese course (economic reform with no political change) would be a major foreign policy victory for Mr. Obama.

Unilaterally cooperating with Cuba destroys Latin American democracy.

Castañeda 8 - Jorge G. Castañeda, professor at New York University and fellow at the New America Foundation, was Mexico~’s foreign minister from 2000 to 2003, September-October 2008, "Morning in Latin America," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 5, proquest)

Realpolitik and fear of another exodus of Cuban refugees across the Straits of Florida may
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for other exceptions that would justify their existence by invoking the Cuban precedent.

That causes a global collapse.

Fauriol and Weintraub 95 – *director of the CSIS Americas program and Prof of Public Affairs at the University of Texas Georges and Sidney, The Washington Quarterly, "U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone", Lexis

The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department
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on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.

Extinction.

Diamond 1995 - Hoover Institute Senior Fellow (Larry, "Promoting Democracy in the 1990s," http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/fr.htm) 

This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in
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which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

The aff’s rejection of chaos constructs an unreal perfect world opposite reality that they order themselves to – this engenders ressentiment. They blame the chaos that is a part of them on their neighbor, and try to eradicate it.

Saurette ’96, - Paul Saurette has a PhD in political theory at John Hopkins U, "I mistrust all systematizers and avoid them’: Nietzshce, Arendt and the Crisis of the Will to Order in INternational Relations Theory." Millenium Journal of International Studies. Vol. 25 no. 1 page 3-6
The Will to Order and Politics-as-Making The Philosophical Foundation of the Will to Truth/Order •. I mistrust all systematizers and avoid them. A will to a system is a lack .of 21 integrity."
According to Nietzsche, the philosophical foundation of a society is the set of ideas
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, the Will to Order becomes .the fundamental philosophical principle of modernity. 

Our alternative is to "Do nothing in the instance of the plan." The refusal to act accepts the inevitability of struggle, allowing us to understand pain positively.

Nietzsche, ’78 The anti-christ Human, All too Human. Aphorism ~23284 1878
The means to real peace.— No government admits any more that it keeps an
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indeed you know, comes from a cloud—and from up high.

Multilat fails and is unsustainable.

Young et al 13 Kevin Young is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, David Held is Master of University College, and Professor of Politics and International Relations, at the University of Durham. He is also Director of Polity Press and General Editor of Global Policy, Thomas Hale is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, Open Democracy, May 24, 2013, "Gridlock: the growing breakdown of global cooperation", http://www.opendemocracy.net/thomas-hale-david-held-kevin-young/gridlock-growing-breakdown-of-global-cooperation
*We do not endorse the ableist language.

The Doha round of trade negotiations is deadlocked, despite eight successful multilateral trade rounds
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specific mix of causal mechanisms. Each of these are explained briefly below.
Growing multipolarity.
The absolute number of states has increased by 300 percent in the last 70 years
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range of interests, must agree in order for global cooperation to occur.
Institutional inertia.
The postwar order succeeded, in part, because it incentivized great power involvement in
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cases, design institutions that would organically adjust to fluctuations in national power.
Harder problems.
As independence has deepened, the types and scope of problems around which countries must
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thus far, impossible (Falkner et al. 2011; Victor 2011).
Fragmentation.
The institution-builders of the 1940s began with, essentially, a blank slate
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they now block and inhibit problem solving and reform at the global level. 

Plan kills Latin American relations.

Suchlicki 2k. (Jaime, University of Miami, s Emilio Bacardi Moreau Professor of History ¶ and International Studies and the Director of the Institute for Cuban ¶ and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. June "The U.S. Embargo of Cuba" http://www6.miami.edu/iccas/USEmbargo.pdf)

Cuba is not an important issue in U.S.-Latin American relations.
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tourism will flock to Cuba, to the detriment of the Caribbean economies. 

Unilateralism is sustainable.

Kagan, 12 ~Robert, 1-5, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe — Brookings, "New Year, Old Foreign Policy Problems," http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2012/0105_international_relations_kagan~~

Meanwhile, the much-discussed "rise of the rest" has been overhyped
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will be the year Americans gain a renewed understanding of that enduring reality.

Single issues aren’t key to cred.

Lake, 10– Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., "Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)//DR. H

President Obama and his administration appear to recognize the need to bolster the authority and
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even deeper into multilateral institutions that can provide real checks on potential opportunism.

Can’t solve Cuban sugar ethanol.

Sanchez ’11
Adriana E. Sanchez, NotiEn, News Agency, 2011, "Biofuels Fighting for Space in Central America and Cuba," http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/12797/Biofuels20Fighting20for20Space20in20Central20America20and20Cuba.pdf?sequence=1

Similar to Central America, Cuba’s potential to become a leader in biofuel production is
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an analyst for the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. 

No warming impacts.

Burnett, 12 – Sterling, Ph.D., Senior Fellow in Environment and Energy at the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), "Fraud and Heartland: A Scandal for Climate Alarmists, not Skeptics," 2-22, http://environmentblog.ncpa.org/fraud-and-heartland-a-scandal-for-climate-alarmists-not-skeptics/. 

Sadly (for him), Peter Gleick, the researcher at issue, could have
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," behind global warming skepticism. Who says the Progressive era has passed?

Biodiversity doesn’t matter

Sagoff 97 – (Mark, Senior Research Scholar @ Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs @ U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, "Institute Of Bill Of Rights Law Symposium Defining Takings: Private Property And The Future Of Government Regulation: Muddle Or Muddle Through? Takings Jurisprudence Meets The Endangered Species Act", 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N)

Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that the earth stands
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sense, good for mankind. The most valuable things are quite useless.

Cuba is a flagrant, willful, and persistent violator of human rights — repression is worsening.

Miami Herald 13 — Miami Herald, 2013 ("Human rights under abuse in Cuba," Editorial, April 22^nd, Available Online at http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/22/3358813/human-rights-under-abuse-in-cuba.html~~23storylink=cpy, Accessed 07-03-2013)

The State Department’s latest report on human-rights practices effectively puts the lie to the idea that the piecemeal and illusory changes in Cuba under Gen. Raúl Castro represent a genuine political opening toward greater freedom.
If anything, things are getting worse. The report, which covers 2012, says the independent Cuban Commission on Human Rights and Reconciliation counted 6,602 short-term detentions during the year, compared with 4,123 in 2011. In March 2012, the same commission recorded a 30-year record high of 1,158 short-term detentions in a single month just before the visit of Pope Benedict XVI.
Among the many abuses cited by the 2012 report are the prison sentences handed out to members of the Unión Patriotica de Cuba, the estimated 3,000 citizens held under the charge of "potential dangerousness," state-orchestrated assaults against the Damas de Blanco (Ladies in White), the suspicious death of dissident Oswaldo Payá and so on.
As in any dictatorship, telling the truth is a crime: Independent journalist Calixto Ramón Martínez Arias, the first to report on the cholera outbreak in Cuba, was jailed in September for the crime of desacato (insulting speech) and remained there until last week.
The regime is willing to undertake some meek economic reforms to keep people employed. It has even dared to relax its travel requirements to allow more Cubans to leave the country if they can get a passport.   
Both of these are short-term survival measures, designed as escape valves for growing internal pressure. But when it comes to free speech, political activity and freedom of association — the building blocks of a free society — the report is a depressing chronicle of human-rights abuses and a valuable reminder that repression is the Castro regime’s only response to those who demand a genuinely free Cuba. Fundamental reform? Not a chance.

Moral duty to shun human rights abusers.

Beversluis 89 — Eric H. Beversluis, Professor of Philosophy and Economics at Aquinas College, holds an A.B. in Philosophy and German from Calvin College, an M.A. in Philosophy from Northwestern University, an M.A. in Economics from Ohio State University, and a Ph.D. in the Philosophy of Education from Northwestern University, 1989 ("On Shunning Undesirable Regimes: Ethics and Economic Sanctions," Public Affairs Quarterly, Volume 3, Number 2, April, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via JSTOR, p. 17-19)

A fundamental task of morality is resolving conflicting interests. If we both want the
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rage. Thus ethics identifies the rights of individuals when their interests conflict.
But how can a case for shunning be made on this view of morality?
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, on what grounds might it be a duty to impose such sanctions?
We find the answer when we note that there is another "level" of
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rights of others with one’s actions but also to support that moral order.
Consider that the moral order itself contributes significantly to people’s rights being respected. It
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it indirectly affects people’s rights. And this is where shunning fits in.
Certain types of behavior constitute a direct attack on the moral order. When the
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three conditions which turn immoral behavior into an attack on the moral order.
An immoral action is flagrant if it is "extremely or deliberately conspicuous; notorious
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reaffirms the legitimacy of that moral order. How does shunning do this?
First, by refusing publicly to have to do with such a person one announces support for the moral order and backs up the announcement with action. This action reinforces the commitment to the moral order both of the shunner and of the other members of the community. (Secretary of State Shultz in effect made this argument in his call for international sanctions on Libya in the early days of 1986.)
Further, shunning may have a moral effect on the shunned person, even if the direct impact is not adequate to change the immoral behavior. If the shunned person thinks of herself as part of the moral community, shunning may well make clear to her that she is, in fact, removing herself from that community by the behavior in question. Thus shunning may achieve by moral suasion what cannot be achieved by "force."
Finally, shunning may be a form of punishment, of moral sanction, whose appropriateness depends not on whether it will change the person’s behavior, but on whether he deserves the punishment for violating the moral order. Punishment then can be viewed as a way of maintaining the moral order, of "purifying the community" after it has been made "unclean," as ancient communities might have put it.
Yet not every immoral action requires that we shun. As noted above, we
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on the moral order itself through flagrant, willful, and persistent wrongdoing.
We can also now see why failure to shun can under certain circumstances suggest complicity. But it is not that we have a duty to shun because failure to do so suggests complicity. Rather, because we have an obligation to shun in certain circumstances, when we fail to do so others may interpret our failure as tacit complicity in the willful, persistent, and flagrant immorality.

No food wars, and they don’t escalate.

Salehyan 08 (Idean, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ North Texas, Journal of Peace Research, "From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet", 45:3, Sage, DOI: 10.1177/0022343308088812)

A few caveats are in order here. It is important to note, again
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and Tanzania,6 although none of these countries have experienced fullblown civil war 

Block

Accidents result in extinction.

Toon ’7 (Owen B, chair – Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences – Colorado University, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are congregating in the world’s great urban centers,
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should be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Cuba has tons of oil potential.

Veiga and González 13, Roberto Veiga and Lenier González, 5/7/13, "Does Cuba Have a Future in Oil?" http://www.havanatimes.org/?p=9263426print=1)//DR. H

Every exploration program, especially in frontier zones, that is, in new areas that have never been explored, has different stages. There is always a very important stage, geological studies, where investigators estimate the potential for the existence of hydrocarbons.
That is the process we have conducted for the past 10 years in Cuba, which includes a study by the U.S. Geological Survey. This study, done for the first time in 2004, estimates that in Cuba’s geological north strip, off shore, from Pinar del Río Province to northern Matanzas province, there are oil reserves.
The surveyors raise the possibility that from 4 billion to 6 billion barrels of crude are still to be found. These geological studies are very environmental, but historically they are highly trusted by our industry. That doesn’t mean that they guarantee the amount of oil, but it’s the first step in that stage.
The chances of finding oil; challenges to the effort
Finding oil in Cuba would not be a major problem from a technical point of view. Today, there is a technology to bring offshore oil to dry land, where it can be refined or carried in tankers to other markets.
Another issue is related with our model of consumption. If we found oil in Cuba, the mere news would lead us to think, "Goody, now I can turn on all the lights, do all that, and now I don’t care." Conversely, if we find oil, we must adhere to the concept of savings, recycling, using public transportation.
Reaching maximum production would take from three to five years. Each field could have 5, 10, 15 or 20 wells that could reach an adequate production. Neither I nor the people with whom I’ve talked believe that Cuba’s potential in deep waters will exceed 200,000 or 300,000 barrels per day.
Eventually, if we find what we hope for, within five to seven years, Cuba could produce 250,000 barrels per day.

Oil independence deteriorates US-Saudi ties

Tanter ’12
~RAYMOND TANTER, Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan; President of Iran Policy Committee Publishing; and former member of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush Administration, "The Geopolitics of U.S. Energy Independence," International Economy, Summer 2012, http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Su12_GeopoliticsEnergySymp.pdf~~

At issue is whether energy independence will cause¶ a revision of U.S
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like an Iranian nuclear weapon could wipe¶ out the tide toward isolationism.

US-Saudi interaction is fully dependent on oil – the plan removes that link

Congregalli ’13
~Matteo Congregalli, International Politics Journalist, "Without Oil. Without Allies: USA and the New American Dream of Independent Energy," Urban Times, 2/15/13, http://urbantimes.co/magazine/2013/02/usa-oil-saudi-arabia-independent-domestic-energy-supply/~~
Examples of oil-diplomacy are known to be neither smooth nor easy. Take
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are turning into a Saudi Arabia with burgers, baseball, and guns.

Domestic politics block a reorientation in the US’ strategy.

Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, "Empire’s Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America," New Labor Forum, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)SJF

It’s not going to happen. Efforts to implement any one of the above policy
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into a citadel of U.S. hard power in the Andes. 

Their Kupchan and Mount ev concludes it’s a domestic problem.

Kupchan and Mount 09, Charles: professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Adam: Doctoral candidate in the Department of Government at Georgetown University, Spring 2009,  "The Autonomy Rule," http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/12/Kupchan.pdf)//DR. H

Many American strategists recognize the inevitability of a more level global playing field, but
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the principles around which the next order is most likely to take shape.

Their Kupchan ev proves the plan isn’t necessary OR sufficient.

Kupchan 12, Charles, Professor of international relations at Georgetown and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 4/7, "America’s Place in the New World," The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/opinion/sunday/americas-place-in-the-new-world.html?pagewanted=126_r=0)//DR. H
*US military dominance isn’t in jeopardy solving their war impacts and other countries are alt causes.

Still, they’re missing the point. The most potent challenge to America’s dominance comes not from the continuing redistribution of global power, but from a subtler change: the new forms of governance and capitalism being forged by China and other rising nations.
The democratic, secular and free-market model that has become synonymous with the
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their own versions of modernity and pushing back against the West’s ideological ambitions.
As this century unfolds, sustaining American power will be the easy part. The hard part will be adjusting to the loss of America’s ideological dominance and fashioning consensus and compromise in an increasingly diverse and unwieldy world.
If American leaders remain blind to this new reality and continue to expect conformity to Western values, they will not only misunderstand emerging powers, but also alienate the many countries tired of being herded toward Western standards of governance.
This transition won’t be easy. Since the founding era, the American elite and
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economic and political wherewithal to consolidate brands of modernity that present durable alternatives.
The last 30 years of Chinese development, for example, look nothing like the
AND
competitors, enriching its bourgeoisie and lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.
And in today’s fast and fluid global economy, the control afforded by state capitalism has its distinct advantages, which is precisely why Russia, Vietnam and others are following China’s lead.
The Middle East is similarly set to confound American expectations. Participatory politics may be
AND
one of the main reasons Islamists recently prevailed in the country’s parliamentary elections.
And Egypt is the rule, not the exception. If nothing else, the Arab Spring has shown that democratization does not equal Westernization, and that it is past time for Washington to rethink its longstanding alignment with the region’s secular parties.
True, rising powers like India and Brazil are stable, secular democracies that appear to be hewing closely to the Western model. But these countries have democratized while their populations consist mainly of the urban and rural poor, not the middle class. As a result, both nations have embraced a left-wing populism wary of free markets and of representative institutions that seem to deliver benefits only to a privileged elite.
¶ Rising democracies are also following their own paths on foreign policy, foiling America’s
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with Washington less than 25 percent of the time at the United Nations.
¶ Washington has long presumed that the world’s democracies will as a matter of course ally themselves with the United States; common values supposedly mean common interests. But if India and Brazil are any indication, even rising powers that are stable democracies will chart their own courses, expediting the arrival of a world that no longer plays by Western rules.

We need to continue promoting democracy.

Kupchan 12, Charles, Professor of international relations at Georgetown and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 4/7, "America’s Place in the New World," The New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/opinion/sunday/americas-place-in-the-new-world.html?pagewanted=126_r=0)//DR. H

¶ To be sure, even as it adopts a more pluralistic approach, the United States should defend not just its interests, but also its values. It should continue to promote democracy, stand resolute in the defense of human rights and do what it can to stop indiscriminate violence of the sort unleashed by Syria’s government.
¶ But American leaders do their country no service when they trumpet a new American century or topple governments in the name of spreading Western values. Doing so will drive away the very nations the United States needs on its side to confront dangerous pariahs and manage a world in which power is broadly shared.
Standing by its own values while also recognizing that there are alternative forms of responsible and responsive governance would ultimately elevate the nation’s moral authority, making it more likely that other countries would be as respectful of America’s preferences as America should be of theirs.

Their 1AC internal link concludes democracy promotion doesn’t hurt multilat.

Kupchan and Mount 09, Charles: professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Adam: Doctoral candidate in the Department of Government at Georgetown University, Spring 2009,  "The Autonomy Rule," http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/12/Kupchan.pdf)//DR. H

America’s adherence to the Autonomy Rule by no means precludes the promotion of democracy as an objective of U.S. statecraft. Americans have every reason to remain confident that liberal democracy represents the best form of government, both morally and materially. Accordingly, the United States should continue to use political and economic incentives to encourage democratization.
However, the spread of democracy should remain one component of a long-term
AND
favorable international conditions in which democracy will be able to demonstrate its virtues.

Warming’s inevitable.

Mims 12 ~cites Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University’s climate change institute, 3/26/12, Christopher Mims, "Climate scientists: It’s basically too late to stop warming," http://grist.org/list/climate-scientists-its-basically-too-late-to-stop-warming/~~

If you like cool weather and not having to club your neighbors as you battle
AND
, welcome to the 21st century. Hope you packed your survival instinct.

Adaptation checks.

Singer et al 11 Dr. S. Fred, Research Fellow at The Independent Institute, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, President of the Science and Environmental Policy Project, a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a Member of the International Academy of Astronautics; Robert M. Carter, Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia), palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental scientist with more than thirty years professional experience; and Craig D. Idso, founder and chairman of the board of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, member of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Geophysical Union, American Meteorological Society, Arizona-Nevada Academy of Sciences, and Association of American Geographers, et al, 2011, "Climate Change Reconsidered: 2011 Interim Report," online: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/2011/pdf/FrontMatter.pdf
*Adaptation checks – wealth increases and technological advances would mitigate the worst effects of climate change – Singer cites decades long empirics and is comparative – IPCC reports use current adaptation data instead of predictive data.
*If war impact – warming doesn’t cause wars – empirics go neg – cooling empirically led to wars and their claims are correlation not causation – warming has been coincided with peace, prosperity, and stability.

Decades-long empirical trends of climate-sensitive measures of human well-being
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warming has coincided with periods of peace, prosperity, and social stability.

No limit to agricultural productivity, things will improve

Simon 96 Julian Simon, Former Professor of Business Administration at the University of Maryland and Former Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute, "The Ultimate Resource 2", 1996, p. 102-104

Nor is this any "ultimate" limit. Rather, these gains are just
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food supply that take no account of these possibilities surely are seriously inadequate.

No risk of nuclear terror.

Chapman 12 (Stephen, editorial writer for Chicago Tribune, "CHAPMAN: Nuclear terrorism unlikely," May 22, http://www.oaoa.com/articles/chapman-87719-nuclear-terrorism.html)

A layperson may figure it’s only a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to
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, it appears, the worst eventuality is one that will never happen.

Failed transition collapses Cuba

Naím, 1 – editor of Foreign Policy (MOISÉS, "When Countries go Crazy", MARCH 1, 2001, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2001/03/01/when_countries_go_crazy)//eek

Some countries can drive other countries crazy. When people have this effect on one
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, the powerful interest groups that blinded him to the lessons of experience.

Many Latin American leaders are sealed off from Cuba’s human rights abuses – they don’t want to condemn Castro

Wilkinson, 10 - managing director of the Americas division at Human Rights Watch, is a general expert on Latin America (Daniel, The New York Review of Books, "Cuba — A Way Forward" 4/28, http://www.hrw.org/news/2010/04/28/cuba-way-forward)

Since promoting democratic rule is a central objective of Helms-Burton, any action taken toward that end can therefore be considered a crime. In this way, just as criticism of the Castros is equated with abetting their enemies, promoting democracy is equated with US-sponsored regime change.

•          *          *
  But if the pretext for the crackdown was bogus, it nonetheless served a crucial
  AND
  little room for the revulsion they would otherwise feel for Fidel Castro’s abuses.
  Raúl Castro has adopted this same tactic, so that when outsiders hear of Cuba’s
  AND
  to seal Cuba’s prisoners off from international sympathy and reinforce their prolonged solitude.
  Once a year, for nearly two decades, the UN General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly to condemn the US embargo. In 2009, the resolution passed 187-3, with only Israel and Palau siding with the United States. While this condemnation is deserved, there is no such UN vote to condemn Cuba’s repressive policies, or comparable outrage about its victims.
  This discrepancy is particularly pronounced in Latin America, where the long history of heavy
  AND
  they embraced the Castros and refused to meet with relatives of political prisoners.
  Meanwhile, an increasing number of leaders have praised the Castro government as a standard
  AND
  American liberation movements, and Fidel Castro "the father of the motherland."

The permutation is a different policy than the plan

Kahler, 6 - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego (M., "Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait" in Journal of Peace Research (2006), 43:5, p. 523-541, Sage Publications)

Scholars have usefully distinguished between two types of economic engagement: conditional policies that require
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), and, among adversaries, only after coercive threats are first used.
The success of a conditional engagement strategy should also be contingent on a state’s influence
AND
incentives to trade with or invest in the target state are strong.2
Unconditional engagement strategies are more passive than conditional variants in that they do not include
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act as a transforming agent that reshapes the goals of the target state.

"Should" means "must" and requires immediate legal effect

Summers 94 (Justice – Oklahoma Supreme Court, "Kelsey v. Dollarsaver Food Warehouse of Durant", 1994 OK 123, 11-8, http://www.oscn.net/applications/oscn/DeliverDocument.asp?CiteID=20287~~23marker3fn13)
¶4 The legal question to be resolved by the court is whether the word
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intent must be garnered from the four corners of the entire record.16
~CONTINUES – TO FOOTNOTE~
13 "Should" not only is used as a "present indicative" synonymous
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. 336, 337, 27 L.Ed. 201 (1882).

"Substantial" requires certainty

Words and Phrases 64 (40W26P 759)
The words" outward, open, actual, visible, substantial, and exclusive
AND
or pertaining to any others; undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive.
 

Resolved means definite

Random House 6 (Unabridged Dictionary, http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/resolve)

re•solve  Audio Help   /r??z?lv/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation~~~ri-zolv~~~ Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation verb, -solved, -solv•ing, noun
–verb (used with object)

1. to come to a definite or earnest decision about; determine (to do something): I have resolved that I shall live to the full.

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: 1 | Opponent: Northview PP | Judge: Murphy, Morgan

1NC

The plan’s appeasement.

Stern 6 (Martin, University of Maryland Graduate, Debunking detente, 11/27/06, http://www.diamondbackonline.com/article_56223e79-7009-56a3-8afe-5d08bfff6e08.html)

Appeasement is defined as "granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." Giving Iran international legitimacy and removing sanctions would have maintained peace with a potential enemy without changing the undemocratic practices of the enemy. If this isn’t appeasement, I don’t know how better to define the word.

That’s not topical – economic engagement is the establishment of economic contacts – not one time appeasement.

Resnick 01 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, "Defining Engagement", Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco

DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN ENGAGEMENT AND APPEASEMENT
In contrast to many prevailing conceptions of engagement, the one proposed in this essay
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between two states can be removed in a number of ways.(n31)
A more refined definition of appeasement that not only remains loyal to the traditional connotations
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off-again diplomatic negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.
Thus, a rigid conceptual distinction can be drawn between engagement and appeasement. Whereas
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or in exchange for certain concessions on the part of the target state.

Blurring the distinction between engagement and appeasement wrecks limits and precision — vote negative.

Resnick 01 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, "Defining Engagement", Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco
ENGAGEMENT VS. ISOLATION, APPEASEMENT VS. CONTAINMENT

The proposed definition of engagement helps clarify the distinctions between alternative foreign policy approaches that
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from expanding its territory or sphere of geopolitical influence (appeasement plus containment).
The opposite of a policy of engagement would be one in which a state comprehensively
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contacts with another state across multiple issue-areas (engagement plus disengagement).
The distinctions drawn between engagement, appeasement, containment and isolation allow for a more
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American policy toward China should constitute "containment but not isolation."(n41)
CONCLUSION
In matters of national security, establishing a clear definition of terms is a precondition
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"engagement," they undermine the ability to build an effective foreign policy.
The refined definition I propose as a substitute for existing descriptions of engagement is different
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the information necessary to better manage the rogue states of the 21st century. 

They establishes the government as a monolithic actor and a reason they can’t solve

Claude, 98– Professor of Government and Foreign Affairs, University of Virginia (Inis, "States and the Global System", NG)

This view of the state as an institutional monolith is fostered by the notion of
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good as done and might as well be declared to have been done.

That makes the citizens powerless in the face of the government, ceding agency

Mann, 97 (Frederick, http://www.mind-trek.com/reports/tl07e.htm, NG)

You might think, "So what? Why is this important?" Much of
AND
government" beast. Terrocrats are human. I can deal with them.

Extinction
Beres, 94– Ph.D., Professor of International Law, Purdue University (Louis Rene, "Self-Determination, International Law and Survival on Planet Earth", NG) 

With Hegel’s characterization of the State as "the march of God in the world
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annihilation looms even after the Cold War, n71 the citizens of conflicting States

The affirmative claim to save a particular identity group creates an "us" of ethical insiders vs a "them" of outsiders. This is the root of war, racism, and genocide

Badiou, 98 (Alain, Professor of Philosophy at the European Graduate School in Saas-Fee, Switzerland, Ethics: An Essay on the Understanding of Evil, 73-77)

What allows a genuine event to be at the origin of a truth -which
AND
under a name of its invention, it is terror directed at everyone.

Ethical rules are an attempt to freeze the current order and are therefore nihilist and deeply conservative.

Badiou, 98 (Alain, Professor of Philosophy at the European Graduate School in Saas-Fee, Switzerland, Ethics: An Essay on the Understanding of Evil, 30-34)

The very idea of a consensual ’ethics’, stemming from the general feeling provoked by
AND
by a will to nothingness, whose other name is: death drive. 

The alternative is to break with such rules and give ourselves over to the particular event

Badiou, 98 (Alain, Professor of Philosophy at the European Graduate School in Saas-Fee, Switzerland, Ethics: An Essay on the Understanding of Evil, 14-16)

Every collective will to the Good creates Evi1. This is sophistry at its most
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it -it must send away to die in the shantytowns of Kinshasa. 

Justification of obligation is based on guilt – as long as there is suffering, we must hate ourselves for it  
Bruckner ’86 (Pascal, Associate professor, Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris, The Tears of the White Man, p.66-68)
That is the wellspring of this religion of compassionate sympathy, which strives to outdo
AND
and Lenin’s tomb under the patronage of a weeping Jesus Christ of Naples. 

This engenders hatred for reality, which ends in extinction
Bruckner ’86 (Pascal, Associate professor, Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris, The Tears of the White Man, p.146-147)
The foregoing teaches us this: that hatred of the West is really a hatred
AND
carries with it a generalized negativity that envisions the end of the world. 

Embrace suffering to shed guilt and affirm the innocence of existence – this is the only way to affirm life
Kain 07 (Philip J., professor of philosophy at University of Santa Clara, "Nietzsche, Eternal Recurrence, and the Horror of Existence," the Journal of Nietzsche Studies, muse, Sydnor)
We have seen that in Nietzsche’s opinion we cannot bear meaningless suffering and so we
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) in opposition to the meaning he has succeeded in imposing on it.

A 1ac without value is by definition meaningless – presume negative until they can present a value system that does not collapse upon itself or evacuate meaning.

Henning 09 – (Brian; Associate Professor of Philosophy at Gonzaga University; "Trusting in the ’Efficacy of Beauty: A Kalocentric Approach to Moral Philosophy"; Ethics 26 the Environment- Volume 14, Number 1)RSW

Final truths (whether in religion, morality, or science) are unattainable not
AND
world, how we relate to and interact with every form of existence.

We are cosmic dust whirling in the wind — the distinction between "living and non-living" is meaningless and our extinction is inevitable.  Only accepting these truths allows us to transcend consciousness.

Seed 88 – (John; Australian environmentalist and director of the Rainforest Information Centre; THINKING LIKE A MOUNTAIN - TOWARDS A COUNCIL OF ALL BEINGS; http://www.rainforestinfo.org.au/deep-eco/Anthropo.htm)

"But the time is not a strong prison either. A little scraping of
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beneficial for all life on the planet as a whole." (9)

Democracy checks genocide

O’Kane 97 – emeritus professor of comparative political theory at Keele University (Rosemary H.T. O’Kane, Economy and Society, February 1997, "Modernity, the Holocaust, and politics")CC

Chosen policies cannot be relegated to the position of immediate condition (Nazis in power
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and common attributes of modernity which stand in the way of modern genocides.

Gradual transition now

Piccone, 10/3 – Acting Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institute (Ted, "Cuba’s Stroll Toward Change: A View from the Streets", Brookings Institute, 10/3/13, http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/10/03-cuba-trip-piccone)//SJF

We are witnessing today the unfolding of a transitional hybrid economy that has one foot
AND
investment are too restrictive and arbitrarily enforced and property rights remain in doubt.
Nonetheless, the package of changes underway in Cuba, under the auspices of Raúl
AND
, Cuba will look even more different than it did five years ago.
This shift is already visible. Open debates among Cuban citizens, including one I
AND
, despite continued harassment and detentions. Change is in the tropical air.
As Cuba opens its economy to the world, and gradually finds the confidence to
AND
reconciliation – both within the island and across the Florida Straits – begin.

Newest studies prove-Castro tyranny only gets worse as the US eases sanctions-turns the aff

Darby 13 ~Brandon, reporter for Breidbart— http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/01/05/Cuba-Human-Rights-Abuses-Increasing-Despite-US-Sanctions-Easing -Jan 3, 2013—SR~

Cuba was singled out by Human Rights Watch in 2011 as being the only Latin
AND
complete year of eased sanctions, the human rights abuses have increased substantially.

No internal link – Castro’s the oppressor, not the US.

Ros-Lehtinen 13 ~Ileana, US Rep (Fl)— http://ros-lehtinen.house.gov/press-release/human-rights-abuses-cuba-are-rising-some-lawmakers-wrongly-seek-reward-castro-regime - March 21, 2013~

These latest efforts by Castro apologists are a sober reminder that there are those in
AND
from its atrocious and systematic violation of real basic freedoms and human rights.

Block

Engagement towards a government must be conditional, the plan isn’t

Haass and O’Sullivan, 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution AND a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution (Richard and Meghan, "Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies" Survival _{vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer20haass/2000survival.pdf}

Many different types of engagement strategies exist, depending on who is engaged, the
AND
private sector in the hopes of promoting forces that will eventually facilitate cooperation.

That violates the word "its".

Glossary of English Grammar Terms, 05  
(http://www.usingenglish.com/glossary/possessive-pronoun.html)

Mine, yours, his, hers, its, ours, theirs are the possessive pronouns used to substitute a noun and to show possession or ownership.
EG. This is your disk and that’s mine. (Mine substitutes the word disk and shows that it belongs to me.)

Challenging single instances of violent language is key to resisting oppression by elites
Summy 98 Ralph Summy is the Director of the Matsunaga Institute for Peace, University of Hawaii. He formerly headed the Peace and Conflict Studies Program at the University of Queensland, Australia. "Nonviolent Speech" Peace Review, 10402659, Dec98, Vol. 10, Issue 4
By accepting the introduction of violence into the language, people are contributing to the
AND
, and therefore has helped to perpetuate an output of subconscious violent thinking.

Tolerance is an unacceptable approach to violent language- it solves nothing while allowing the violent rhetoric to continue
Kelley 98 Andrew Kelley lives in Denton, Texas, and teaches philosophy at Texas Woman’s University, ON LISTENING ,  By: Kelley, Andrew, Peace Review, 10402659, Dec98, Vol. 10, Issue 4
The alternative, tolerance, does not necessarily fare much better. Tolerance occurs when
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and have no desire to connect or to live in harmony with her. 

Their politically compromised framework allows the West to wage perpetual war on those it considers ethical outsiders

Badiou 04 (Alain, FRAGMENTS OF A PUBLIC DIARY ON THE AMERICAN WAR AGAINST IRAQ Vol. 8, No. 3 Summer 2004, pp. 223–238 ISSN 1740-9292 print/ISSN 1477-2876 ??2004 Taylor 26 Francis Ltd http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals)

From the moment we begin to live indistinctly in the war of democracies against Islamic
AND
above-mentioned "democrats" against the barbarian aggressiveness of the poor.

Their nihilistic pathos relies on disaster fetishism and a silent pleasure in witnessing Evil —- this outweighs the aff.

Badiou, 98 (Alain, Professor of Philosophy at the European Graduate School in Saas-Fee, Switzerland, Ethics: An Essay on the Understanding of Evil, 34-35)

We should be more struck than we usually are by a remark that often recurs
AND
that divides philosophy from ’ethics’, or the courage of truths from nihilism. 

Our alternative is to break these universal standards and give ourselves over to the particular event —- Only this gives us a path to meaningful existence—striving for truth is what makes us subjects who are capable of Good and Evil

Brown, 04 (Nicholas, University of Illinois at Chicago, Or, Alain Badiou and Slavoj Žižek, Waiting for Something to Happen, CR: The New Centennial Review 4.3 (2004) 289-319). 

Now, for Badiou, the genuine problem of ethics, the question of the
AND
Only in relation to truth does humanity become capable of good or evil. 

Truth events are not pre-determined. Subjects CREATE truth through individual struggle or ethical fidelity to an event.

Johnston, 02 (Theory and Event, Confronting the New Sophists, 6:2 | © 2002   Adrian Johnston, Book Review of Jason Barker, Alian Badiou: A Critical Introduction (London: Pluto Press, 2002), Adrian Johnston recently received his Ph.D. in philosophy at SUNY Stony Brook. He is presently an interdisciplinary research fellow in psychoanalysis at Emory University).

In his fourth chapter, "The Politics of Truth," Barker is careful to
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remaining faithful to them). The subject is thereby the support of truth. 

They are right—our alternative does not have a fixed end point.  To prescribe one is to already give up on the potentially transformative nature of the event.

Badiou, 02 (http://www.lacan.com/badeurope.htm European Graduate School, August 2002, On the Truth-Process, followed by interventions of S. Zizek and G. Agamben, by Alain Badiou). 

Modern philosophy is a criticism of truth as adequation. Truth is not limited to
AND
was formulated in a pure, committed by chance, point by point.

?

Ethics comes before knowledge—their advantages are sandcastles built upon a foundation of anthropocentric valuation—Accurate knowledge STARTS with willigness to risk responding to mysterious ecologies demanding your ethical concern

Weston 09 – Anthony Weston, Professor of Philosophy at Elon University, 2009
~The Incompleat Eco-Philosopher p. 9-11~

If theworld is a collection of more or less ?xed facts to which we  must
AND
, the world responds.  The great task is not knowledge but relationship.
?

Ethics comes before knowledge—their advantages are sandcastles built upon a foundation of anthropocentric valuation—Accurate knowledge STARTS with willigness to risk responding to mysterious ecologies demanding your ethical concern

Weston 09 – Anthony Weston, Professor of Philosophy at Elon University, 2009
~The Incompleat Eco-Philosopher p. 9-11~

If the world is a collection of more or less ?xed facts to which we
AND
, the world responds. The great task is not knowledge but relationship.

the 1ac failure to attend to our relationship as debaters, judges and coaches beyond the human sphere makes them a part of an educational practice that sustains anthropocentric ordering of world despite the "empowerment" offered by the affirmative

Bell and Russell 2K – (Anne C. by graduate students in the Faculty of Environmental Studies, York University and Constance L. a graduate student at the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto, Beyond Human, Beyond Words: Anthropocentrism, Critical Pedagogy, and the Poststructuralist Turn, http://www.csse-scee.ca/CJE/Articles/FullText/CJE25-3/CJE25-3-bell.pdf)//RSW

So far, however, such queries in critical pedagogy have been limited by their
AND
even the most committed of humanists to pause for a moment at least.

c) the 1AC offers a disposition, a frame of mind, a way of feeling. If fiat is education, we call recess2121 Make a sharp left turn from the familiar language game of policy debate.

Stables 02 – Andrew Stables, Reader in Education at University of Bath, 2002
~Trumpeter 18.1~

Wordsworth is here describing a mood, but one to treasure, and from which
AND
. What price an education that makes us grateful for life on Earth? 

Alt is a prerequisite to the AFF – all forms of exclusion are patterned off the human/non-human divide- de-normalizing the anthropocentric order is critical to challenging ethics

Kochi 09 – (Tarik, Sussex law school, Species war: Law, Violence and Animals, Law Culture and Humanities Oct 5.3)RSW

This reflection need not be seen as carried out by every individual on a daily
AND
The critic of war is thus a critic of war’s norm-alization.

Embargo is key to solve human rights violations

Delgado 13 (AJ, 4/13/13, "Bill Maher Ignorantly Rants Against The Cuban Embargo, Adding Himself To The List Of Useful Idiots," Ms. Delgado is a frequent contributor to various political news sites. She holds a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School and worked for several years as a litigator in New York City. http://www.mediaite.com/tv/bill-maher-ignorantly-rants-against-the-cuban-embargo-adding-himself-to-the-list-of-useful-idiots/)

Few stop to realize that it’s the Cuban-Americans who are most anxious to
AND
Cuban propaganda machine is counting on you. Carry on, good soldiers.

Tournament: Samford | Round: 1 | Opponent: Alpharetta RS | Judge: Karthikeyan, Viveth

1NC

Engagement with Cuba is appeasement crushing Obama’s credibility.

Rubin ’11 - Labor Law Attorney and Washington Post Journalist, quotes the chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, quotes a report by the Associated Press, quotes the former deputy national security advisor, (Jennifer, August 18, 2011, "Obama’s Cuba appeasement", http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/obamas-cuba-appeasement/2011/03/29/gIQAjuL2tL_blog.html )HH

The chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was
AND
Gross, not engage in a quid-pro-quo with tyrants."
As bad as a prisoner exchange would have been, the administration actions didn’t stop
AND
French company Pernod Ricard to sell Havana Club rum in the United States."
Former deputy national security adviser Elliott Abrams explained, "It is especially offensive that
AND
for democracy should not be a subject of negotiation with the Castro regime."
The administration’s conduct is all the more galling given the behavior of the Castro regime. Our willingness to relax sanctions was not greeted with goodwill gestures, let alone systemic reforms. To the contrary, this was the setting for Gross’s imprisonment. So naturally the administration orders up more of the same.
Throughout his tenure, President Obama has failed to comprehend the cost-benefit analysis that despotic regimes undertake. He has offered armfuls of goodies and promised quietude on human rights; the despots’ behavior has worsened. There is simply no downside for rogue regimes to take their shots at the United States.
Whether it is Cuba or Iran, the administration reverts to "engagement" mode
AND
to throw gifts to tyrants in the expectation they will reciprocate in kind.

Lack of Obama credibility creates several scenarios for nuclear war.

Coes 11 – Ben Coes 11, Visiting Fellow at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. A graduate of Columbia College, where he won the prestigious Bennett Cerf Memorial Prize "The disease of a weak president", The Daily Caller, http://dailycaller.com/2011/09/30/the-disease-of-a-weak-president/

The disease of a weak president usually begins with the Achilles’ heel all politicians are
AND
one or the other. The status quo is simply not an option.

Removing selective restrictions on specific goods isn’t "economic" because it doesn’t broadly affect economic life

Davidsson 3 – Elias Davidsson, Human Rights Researcher and Activist, Reporter for the Arab American News, Contributing Editor for Global Research, "The Mechanism of Economic Sanctions: Changing Perceptions and Euphemisms", November, www.aldeilis.net/english/attachments/2877_econsanc-debate.pdf?

"Economic sanctions", a mode of coercion in international relations resuscitated in recent years
AND
effect is primarily to convey displeasure, rather than to affect the economy.

Text: The United States federal government should pass legislation banning the withdrawal of military forces from abroad for the purpose of deploying military forces in Latin America. The United States federal government should remove its economic restrictions on the Republic of Cuba, without removing oil sanctions.

Only the CP solves the second advantage.

Zimmerman 10 – Political Activist at Barnard College (Chelsea A., "Rethinking The Cuban Trade Embargo: An Opportune Time To Mend a Broken Policy", 2010, http://cspc.nonprofitsoapbox.com/storage/documents/Fellows2010/Zimmerman.pdf, google scholar)Bwang

Relaxing U.S. trade restrictions will not result in an immediate thaw in  
AND
warrants a gradual revamping through revised regulations and,  ultimately, Congressional action. 

Embargo limits drilling now – plan unlocks large-scale Cuban production.

Padgett 08 Tim Padgett joined TIME in 1996 as Mexico City bureau chief covering Latin
AND
Alvarado, a Cuba oil analyst at the University of Nebraska-Omaha.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,¶ 1853252,00.html~23ixzz13Li5cosN 

The Spanish energy company Repsol-YPF has entered into a production-sharing agreement
AND
able to do it to the extent the Cubans need are the Americans."

That trades-off with US- Mid-East oil ties.

Alhaiji and Maris ’4
~Dr. A. F. Alhajji is an energy economist and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern, Terry L. Maris is the founding executive director of the Center for Cuban. Business Studies and professor of management, "The Future of Cuba’s Energy Sector," Cuba Today, 2004, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/publications/cubatodaybookcomplete.pdf~~23page=105~~

The current economic, political, and social trends in Cuba indicate that¶ energy
AND
the US and other oil producing countries, especially in the Middle East.

That causes Saudi Prolif.

Guzansky ’13 Yoel Guzansky is a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University. His main research area is Gulf security. He has also served as Iran coordinator at Israel’s National Security Council. His recent publications include The Gulf States in a Changing Strategic Environment (2012), One Year of the Arab Spring: Global and Regional Implications, and The Gulf States: Between Iran and the West – Middle East Quarterly¶ Spring 2013, pp. 59-64 – available at: http://www.meforum.org/3512/saudi-arabia-pakistan-nuclear-weapon

The United States is still Saudi Arabia’s most effective security support, but if Washington
AND
, to reduce risks and ensure the continuity of the House of Saud.

Saudi prolif causes nuclear war.

Edelman ’11 (Eric –Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 26 Former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67162/eric-s-edelman-andrew-f-krepinevich-jr-and-evan-braden-montgomer/the-dangers-of-a-nuclear-iran)

The Islamabad option raises a host of difficult issues, perhaps the most worrisome being
AND
to their nuclear arsenals; for instance, they might hide their weapons. 

Anxiety and fear of insecurity create hatred and prevent inner peace —- we must recognize that we cannot grasp the true reality of war.

Lama Yeshe, 1983. Thubten "Anxiety in the Nuclear Age," http://www.lamayeshe.com/index.php?sect=article26id=128.

What’s the good of worrying about things twenty-four hours a day, disturbing
AND
time with pessimistic thoughts, fear or worry. Thank you so much.

This foundational anxiety and fear makes extinction inevitable

Ikeda, 07, Daisaku. Buddhist philosopher and president of Soka Gokkai International. "Restoring the Human Connection: The First Step to Global Peace,"http://www.sgi-uk.org/resources/PeaceProposal2007.pdf.

The challenge of preventing any further proliferation of nuclear weapons is 8 just such a
AND
certain sense makes inevitable the birth of such demonic progeny as nuclear weapons.

The alternative is to shed the ego —- this creates a realization of our unity with all living things.

Snauwaert 09 Dale, Fall 2009. Associate Professor of Educational Theory and Social Foundations of Education; Chair of the Department of Foundations of Education, University of Toledo. "The Ethics and Ontology of Cosmopolitanism: Education for a Shared Humanity," Current Issues in Comparative Education 12.1, http://www.tc.edu/cice/Issues/12.01/PDFs/12_01_Complete_Issue.pdf.

Cosmopolitans assert the existence of a duty of moral consideration to all human beings on
AND
in this sense, is the primary goal of life. Gandhi writes:
What I want to achieve . . . is self-realization . . .
AND
of life, including one’s self. Nonviolence uplifts all. Gandhi writes:
I do not believe . . . that an individual may gain spiritually and those who surround him suffer. I believe in advaita (non-duality), I believe in the essential unity of man and, for that matter, of all that lives. Therefore, I believe that if one man gains spiritually, the whole world gains with him and, if one man falls, the whole world falls to that extent. (Naess 1974, p. 43)
In this experience, one becomes aware of the interrelated and interdependent nature of being
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the essence of morality, rests upon an awareness of our fundamental interconnection.

Increasing Cuba oil trade destroys their economy—abandon liberalization and dutch disease

Orro 9 (Roberto, Board memeber of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE), member of the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce, " Petrolism In Cuba And Implications Of U.S. Investment In The Cuban Oil Sector" 2009 http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume19/pdfs/orro.pdf)

As researchers have shown, oil starts its harmful work from the moment significant oil
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development of secondary and tertiary activities. Cuba will not be the exception.

Their hotspots evidence cites multiple alt causes.

Bosco 06 David (a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine) July 2006 "Forum: Keeping an eye peeled for World War III" http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06211/709477-109.stm_

The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the
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world wars and as Japan was in the years before World War II.

No Indo-Pak war.

Mutti 09 – over a decade of expertise covering on South Asia geopolitics, Contributing Editor to Demockracy journal (James, 1/5, Mumbai Misperceptions: War is Not Imminent, http://demockracy.com/four-reasons-why-the-mumbai-attacks-wont-result-in-a-nuclear-war/)

Writer Amitav Ghosh divined a crucial connection between the two messages. "When commentators
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and is using its regional influence to bring more diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.

No Latin American instability.

Ghitis, 12 - an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor (Frida, World Politics Review, "Latin America, the World’s Democracy Lab" 7/5,
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12127/world-citizen-latin-america-the-worlds-democracy-lab)

Democracy in Latin America has created a new set of rules for what continue to
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killing those on the other side of the ideological divide. No more. 

No Korea war – too high a cost, and no draw in even if war

Hughes 10¬ – Defense correspondent for the Daily Mirror UK
(Chris, "Stakes too high for war between North Korea and South Korea," 11/24/10, http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2010/11/24/stakes-too-high-for-war-between-north-korea-and-south-korea-115875-22735947/, CJC)

All-out war is unlikely as there is nothing to gain for either side
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millionstrong people’s army. The toll on human life would be truly horrific. 

No resource wars – too expensive and market checks

Victor ’8
David G,- Adjunct Senior Fellow for Science and Technology, Council on Foreign Relations; Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development  @ Stanford "Smoke and Mirror" http://www.nationalinterest.org/PrinterFriendly.aspx?id=16530
MY ARGUMENT is that classic resource wars—hot conflicts driven by a struggle to
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is easier to get resources through the stock exchange than the gun barrel.

No risk of nuclear terror.

Chapman 12 (Stephen, editorial writer for Chicago Tribune, "CHAPMAN: Nuclear terrorism unlikely," May 22, http://www.oaoa.com/articles/chapman-87719-nuclear-terrorism.html)

A layperson may figure it’s only a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to
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, it appears, the worst eventuality is one that will never happen.

No Iran prolif impact.

Hibbs ’13 (Mark Hibbs is a former journalist who has been covering nuclear proliferation issues for more than 30 years. In 2006, The Atlantic’s William Langewiesche wrote that Hibbs "must rank as one of the greatest reporters at work in the world today." Hibbs is now a Bonn-based senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – This article is an interview of Hobbs by The Atlantic – "Is a Nuclear Iran Inevitable ?" – The Atlantic – April 12^th – http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/04/is-a-nuclear-iran-inevitable/274924/)

You mention that there are countries like Iran that don’t necessarily pursue the path to
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there’s no consensus right now about which direction Iran’s going to move in. 

Plan’s too small.

Bert and Clayton 12 US Coast Guard military fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations AND fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations (Melissa AND Blake, "Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill," 3/7/12, Polivy Innovation Memorandum No. 15, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515?excerpt=0)//AM

However, taking sensible steps to prepare for a potential accident at an oil well
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and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides Cuba with information on Caribbean storms.
The recommendations proposed here are narrowly tailored to the specific challenges that a Cuban oil spill poses to the United States. They would not help the Cuban economy or military. What they would do is protect U.S. territory and property from a potential danger emanating from Cuba.

Credibility’s irrelevant and single actions don’t solve it.

Fettweis 08 – Professor of political science at Tulane (Christopher, "Credibility and the War on Terror," Winter 2008, Political Science Quarterly)Bwang
*Sociology and Evidence proves.

Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable to identify cases in which high credibility
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a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably failed.40

Block

Increasing Cuba oil trade destroys their economy—abandon liberalization and dutch disease

Orro 9 (Roberto, Board memeber of the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy (ASCE), member of the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce, " Petrolism In Cuba And Implications Of U.S. Investment In The Cuban Oil Sector" 2009 http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume19/pdfs/orro.pdf)

As researchers have shown, oil starts its harmful work from the moment significant oil
AND
development of secondary and tertiary activities. Cuba will not be the exception.

Accidents result in extinction.

Toon ’7 (Owen B, chair – Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences – Colorado University, climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/acp-7-1973-2007.pdf)

To an increasing extent, people are congregating in the world’s great urban centers,
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should be carried out as well for the present scenarios and physical outcomes.

Saudi relations turns the aff — no capital to invest in oil.

AAB 13, Arab American Giving, 2013, "Arab American Business: How America and the Arab World Do Business Together," http://www.arabamericangiving.org/the-importance-of-saudi-arabia-to-the-us-economy.php)//DR. H

Saudi Arabia plays an incredibly important role in the economy of the United States, largely because of its position as one of the most influential members of OPEC, the group, which is formed of the countries which are net exporters of oil. Saudi Arabia has huge oil reserves and it is currently the country with the best capacity for increasing or decreasing its oil production in response to changes in oil prices and demand.
The US economy is highly dependent on oil, relying on oil for about 40
AND
, economy through its influence on the other sources of US oil imports.
The United States, with its economy that is dependent on oil, is an
AND
, with a lot of US made equipment being exported to Saudi Arabia.

Iran prolif would ONLY cause Saudi prolif IF the Saudis perceived weakened commitment from the US.

McDowall ’13
Angus McDowall is a British freelance reporter who lived in Tehran between 2003-07
AND
nuke unlikely to start Mideast arms race: report" – Source: Reuters
February 20, 2013 – http://www.cnas.org/node/10078

Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is engaged in a
AND
it. "The conventional wisdom is probably wrong," the report said.

Iran acquisition won’t prompt Saudi acquisition. They’d take other steps instead.

Oswald ’13
Rachel Oswald is a reporter for Global Security Newswire. She is a graduate of the George Washington University, where she majored in Middle Eastern Studies. Her article is internally quoting CNAS senior fellow Colin Kahl, who served as deputy assistant Defense secretary for the Middle East from 2009 to 2011. "Saudi Arabia Unlikely to Pursue Nuke: Experts" – Global Security Newswire – Feb 21^st – http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/saudi-arabia-unlikely-pursue-nuke-should-iran-first-acquire-capability-experts/

Saudi Arabia is not likely to respond to a nuclear-armed Iran by pursuing
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run higher risks and more effectively push Arab states to accommodate Iranian interests."

the plan causes Saudi freakout.

Rogers 3/20
~2013 – Will Rogers is the Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). At CNAS, Mr. Rogers’ research focus is on science, technology and national security policy. He has authored or co-authored a range of publications on energy, climate change, environmental cooperation in Asia and cybersecurity, "America Committed to Gulf Security Despite Changing Relationship with Region’s Oil, says Gen. Dempsey," Center for New American Security, 2013, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2013/03/america-committed-gulf-security-despite-changing-relationship-regions-~~

America’s relationship with the Middle East’s energy resources is changing as U.S.
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the crude oil trade in the region – or so the narrative goes.¶ 

Oil independence deteriorates US-Saudi ties

Tanter ’12
~RAYMOND TANTER, Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan; President of Iran Policy Committee Publishing; and former member of the National Security Council staff in the Reagan-Bush Administration, "The Geopolitics of U.S. Energy Independence," International Economy, Summer 2012, http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Su12_GeopoliticsEnergySymp.pdf~~

At issue is whether energy independence will cause¶ a revision of U.S
AND
like an Iranian nuclear weapon could wipe¶ out the tide toward isolationism.

US-Saudi interaction is fully dependent on oil – the plan removes that link

Congregalli ’13
~Matteo Congregalli, International Politics Journalist, "Without Oil. Without Allies: USA and the New American Dream of Independent Energy," Urban Times, 2/15/13, http://urbantimes.co/magazine/2013/02/usa-oil-saudi-arabia-independent-domestic-energy-supply/~~
Examples of oil-diplomacy are known to be neither smooth nor easy. Take
AND
are turning into a Saudi Arabia with burgers, baseball, and guns.

Cuban supplies differ from US supplies. They have heavy crude oil.

Alhaiji 26 Maris ’4
~Dr. A. F. Alhajji is an energy economist and George Patton Chair of Business and Economics at the College of Business Administration at Ohio Northern, Terry L. Maris is the founding executive director of the Center for Cuban. Business Studies and professor of management, "The Future of Cuba’s Energy Sector," Cuba Today, 2004, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/publications/cubatodaybookcomplete.pdf~~23page=105~~
The Institute for Cuban 26 Cuban American studies states on its web site¶ that
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light crude oil reseres in order to achieve its goal of self sufficiency.

Venezuela would say no

Shifter 13 – president of the Inter-American Dialogue, Michael, 5-3-13, "What Does the Future Hold for U.S.-Venezuela Relations?" http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=3226pubID=3297

Q: The future of U.S.-Venezuela relations remains uncertain in the
AND
surprising if Washington didn’t eventually come around and deal with the practical reality."

it’ll never occur.

Cárdenas, 3-17-11  ~Mauricio, senior fellow and director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institution, was cabinet minister during the Gaviria and Pastrana administrations in Colombia. Think Again Latin America, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/17/think_again_latin_america?page=full~~
"Latin America is violent and dangerous." Yes, but not unstable. Latin
AND
tactic which contributed in large part to the organization’s loss of popular support.

No Korean war—-laundry list

Fisher 13 Max, Foreign Policy Writer @ Washington Post 26 Former Editor at the Atlantic, "Why North Korea loves to threaten World War III (but probably won’t follow through)" http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/03/12/why-north-korea-loves-to-threaten-world-war-iii-but-probably-wont-follow-through/
North Korea is indeed a dangerous rogue state that has, in the recent past
AND
100 artillery shells at Yeonpyeong Island, killing two civilians and wounding 19.
But is North Korea really an irrational nation on the brink of launching "all-out war," a mad dog of East Asia? Is Pyongyang ready to sacrifice it all? Probably not. The North Korean regime, for all its cruelty, has also shown itself to be shrewd, calculating, and single-mindedly obsessed with its own self-preservation. The regime’s past behavior suggests pretty strongly that these threats are empty. But they still matter.
For years, North Korea has threatened the worst and, despite all of its
AND
to bear the costs of preventing its outbursts from sparking an unwanted war.
Starting World War III or a second Korean War would not serve any of Pyongyang’s
AND
United States, it would almost certainly end with the regime’s total destruction.
Still, provocations and threats do serve Pyongyang’s interests, even if no one takes
AND
death that Kim had made up for North Korea’s weakness with canny belligerence:
The shtick of apparent madness flowed from his country’s fundamental weakness as he, like
AND
nuclear reactor construction, hard cash-earning tourist enclaves and investment zones.
At the risk of insulting Kim Jong Eun, it helps to think of North
AND
because he deserves it, but because you want the tantrum to stop.

The absence of a mind-independent reality means there is zero impact to death.

Lanza 11 Robert, 1/20/2011. Vice President of Research and Scientific Development at Advanced Cell Technology and a professor at Wake Forest University School of Medicine. "Five Reasons You Won’t Die," Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-lanza/5-reasons-you-wont-die_b_810936.html.

We’ve been taught we’re just a collection of cells, and that we die when
AND
, having new adventures and meeting new (and rejoining old) friends. 

Only the alternative’s acceptance of the randomness of events in life solves the 1ACs impact — the AFF fails because it assumes a linear world.

Kiessel, 09, (Amanda Kiessel, Dr. Amanda Kiessel is Program Director
AND
Understandings of Participation and Community Vitality", pgs. 183-198)LOH

Implications for development interventions if society is seen as a dynamic. non-linear
AND
to adapt local conditions, learn from experience and adjust to changing circumstances. 

the permutation fails and is an independent reason to vote NEG.

Jackson, 10 Patrick Thaddeus. Associate Professor of International Relations in the School of International Service at the American University in Washington, DC. "The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations: Philosophy of Science and its Implications for the Study of World Politics," p 41-2.

Ontological commitments, whether philosophical or scientific, logically precede substantive claims, and serve
AND
would have to engage in some other kinds of knowledge-production procedures.

their framework silences alternate education that causes policy failure — only internal self-transformation allows effective political action.

Zajonc 6 – Professor of physics at Amherst College
(Arthur, "Contemplative and Transformative Pedagogy," Kosmos Journal 1.1, http://www.arthurzajonc.org/uploads/Contemplative_Pedagogy20Kosmos.pdf)//BB

I approach the question of shaping worldviews as an educator and as one who,
AND
the work of politics; establishing peace is the work of education."6

we agree threats exist but the aff’s practices make them meaningful
Mack 91 – MD, Psychodynamics of International Relationships Vol 1 p. 58-59 1991

Attempts to explore the psychological roots of enmity are frequently met with an argument that
AND
motives and we never labor to asses his will with anything approaching objectivity."
Individuals may have little to do with the choice of national enemies. Most Americans
AND
taught to think critically about how our assigned enemies are selected for us.
In the relations between potential adversarial nations there will have been, inevitably, real grievances that are grounds for enmity. But the attitude of one people towards another is usually determined by leaders who manipulate the minds of citizens for domestic political reasons which are generally unknown to the public. As Israeli sociologist Alouph Haveran has said, in times of conflict between nations historical accuracy is the first victim.~8~

Tournament: Tournament of Champions | Round: 2 | Opponent: Bronx Science DM | Judge: Garcia-Lugo, Juan
1NC -- K

The Affirmative regurgitates past pain and suffering to show themselves as a moral option in an immoral world. This action is a stimulant used to mask real pain with surplus enjoyment, creating charred men where we feel but are not alive.
Zupancic 03 alenka, “The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two,” 47-49

It might seem that the notion of the ascetic ideal, as well as Nietzsche’s analysis and criticism of it, somehow belongs to the past, and has no particular relevance to our largely hedonistic “postmodern condition.” Yet this assumption could not be more erroneous. The hedonism of postmodern society, far from representing a step out of the framework of what Nietzsche calls the ascetic ideal, is deeply rooted in this framework. In order to see this, we must first understand that, for Nietzsche, the asceticism involved in the ascetic ideal does not simply involve a renouncement of enjoyment; it involves, above all, a specific mode or articulation of enjoyment. Moreover, one could even say that the ascetic ideal coincides with the very “invention” of enjoyment: enjoyment as different from pleasure, as something which lies—to use Freud’s term—beyond the pleasure principle. If, according to Nietzsche, all great religions are an answer to man’s feelings of displeasure and pain, they never treat the cause of this displeasure. Instead, they soothe the sensation of displeasure— they soothe it by providing an even stronger sensation. They literally “outscream” the displeasure (and the “depression”—this is Nietzsche‘s term—linked to it) with an even sharper and more acute feeling, on account of which we no longer feel the previous displeasure. The religious (and especially Christian) cure for “depressive discomfort” comes not in the form of an analgesic or a tranquilizer, but, rather, in the form of an “irritating drug” or “excitation-raiser,” a stimulant. The ascetic ideal, writes Nietzsche, is employed to produce orgies of feeling) 2 It is about immersing the human soul in terrors, ice, flames, and raptures to such an extent that it is liberated from all petty displeasure, gloom, and depression) 3 This is the very core of the ascetic ideal: Everywhere the bad conscience, that “abominable beast,” as Luther called it; everywhere the past regurgitated, the fact distorted, the “jaundiced eye” for all action; . everywhere the scourge, the hair shirt, the starving body, contrition; everywhere the sinner breaking himself on the cruel wheel of a restless morbidly lascivious conscience; everywhere dumb torment, extreme fear, the agony of the tortured heart, convulsions of an unknown happiness . . : awake, everlastingly awake, sleepless, glowing, charred, spent and yet not weary—thus was the man, “the sinner,” initiated into this mystery. This ancient mighty sorcerer in his struggle with displeasure, the ascetic priest—he had obviously won, his kingdom had come: one no longer protested against pain, one thirsted for pain; “more pain! more pain!”1” In a word, one could say that the thing the ascetic ideal employs in response to displeasure is jouissance, (surplus-) enjoyment: “morbidly lascivious conscience,” “convulsions of an unknown happiness,” and the fundamental imperative: More! Encore! It also invents the “second body”: a sublime body, sleepless and spent, as if charred, but never weary. Nietzsche repeats this insistently: the ascetic ideal is about excitement—it is, so to speak, a “passion diet”; it is not about moderation, it counters passions with a surplus of pure passion. It might be interesting to note that this problematic is very closely connected to the one discussed by Eric Santner in his book On the Psychotheology of Everyday Life: Reflections on Freud and Rosenzwei. Santner starts from the notion that life—or, taken more narrowly, the psyche—is characterized by a constitutive “too-muchness” (the human mind is defined by the fact that it includes more reality than it can contain—it bears an excess, a “too-muchness” of pressure that is not merely physiological). This “too-muchness” of pressure cannot be done away with, but it can take two different forms or paths: it can be either the agent of our engagement “in the midst of life,” or a defense against such engagement. The line between the two, between the passions infusing our engagement in the world and our defenses against such engagement, is often a thin one. The common path is precisely the one that constrains our capacities “by burdening them with an uncanny sort of surplus animation. We are dealing here with a paradoxical kind of mental energy that constrains by means of excess that leaves us stuck and paralyzed precisely by way of a certain kind of intensification and amplification." This effect, which Santner calls “undeadening,” is generative of a disturbing surplus animation, and is not “unlike the king’s ‘second body’ posited by theorists of sovereignty.”16 What Nietzsche discusses under the name of the ascetic ideal is precisely this kind of passion, in which man is awake—supremely awake, animated and immersed in very strong sensations and feelings—but not alive. The word that Nietzsche uses to express this (a charred man) is very eloquent in itself. In this respect, Nietzsche’s diagnosis is quite contrary to Marx’s diagnosis: religion is not so much the opium of the people, a tranquilizer that constitutes an escape from (harsh) reality, as an “excitation-raiser” which binds us to this reality by activating some mortifying passion. Discomfort is soothed (or silenced) by crises and states of emergency in which a subject feels alive. But this “alive” is nothing other than “undeadness,” the petrifying grip of surplus excitation and agitation. Of course, Nietzsche also often talks about the “opium” dimension of religion: the fairytale about life after death, about the existence of another, better world, about the existence of a righteous judge who can make sense of the often senseless and unfortunate vicissitudes of our daily life. But he does not situate the core of religious mastery (the ascetic ideal) in this dimension. The power and strength of religion (in the form of the ascetic ideal) do not spring from the fact that it promises the suffering and the disappointed a better world in exchange for their faith, thus forcing them to accept and endure the miseries of this world (instead of rising against their causes). Pain and suffering are not simply burdens that a true Christian (who, in Nietzsche’s argument, can very well be an “atheist Christian”) stoically endures; they are, rather, something in relation to which a Christian comes to life as a subject. The core of the ascetic ideal lies in its articulation of the economy of enjoyment that—although it needs a reference to a beyond in order to be operative—operates in this “corporeal” world: it is that it mobilizes and motivates souls, and provides them with enjoyment

The desire to mask suffering with enjoyment is the ascetic ideal par excellence. the aff’s morals are employed to make one feel accomplished by their personal restraints.
Zupancic 03 alenka, “The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two,” 47-49

The ascetic ideal places the Real of pleasure in enjoyment (and posits enjoyment of pain or suffering as the most vivd human experience – an experience in which the degree of self-sensation and self-presence attains its highest intensity, producing a kind of paralyzing wakefulness), and makes it a law. The specificity of this enjoyment-enjoining law—for this is precisely what this law is all about—is that it does not allow for any play of transgression: it does not capture us by means of arousing a transgressive desire to which we cling as to a promise of some secret enjoyment. It is not a law with which we could establish some kind of relationship, situating ourselves as subjects in relation to it. It is a law that leaves nothing outside it, for now, writes Nietzsche, a man is “like a hen imprisoned by a chalk line. He can no longer get out of this chalk cl7 He can, however, rotate in it to infinity: the limit and the infinite are not in contradiction here, since it is the limit itself that is infinite.  It is tempting to say that something was in the air in that second half of the nineteenth century, something that brought Nietzsche to his conceptualization of the ascetic ideal and Freud to his theory of the superego. Lacan’s reading of the superego law in terms of the “imperative of enjoyment” is, of course, very significant in this context. Something has changed in the juncture of Law and enjoyment, in their nexus. Of course, Nietzsche recognizes this mode of enjoyment in the whole history of Christianity; he does not conceive of it as of something that has just recently occurred. Nonetheless, this is the fate (and the power) of most concepts: once they are forged, we can easily recognize their elements in past historical formations, or even in other, older concepts. This, however, does not contradict the fact that Nietzsche writes from the perspective of a certain shift or break that befell the history of Christianity (or, more broadly, of Western civilization as based on Christianity), and that it is only in this break that things that “were there all the time” became visible.  With the term “ascetic ideal,” Nietzsche names the passage from one logic of the law to another, a passage from the law that forbids and regulates enjoyment to the law that commands (not pleasure, but) enjoyment, confronting us with an imperative of enjoyment. Actually, it would be more accurate to say that the two sides of the law—the prohibition of enjoyment and the surplus of enjoyment— were always linked together, mutually supporting each other. (Surplus-) enjoyment is not simply something that is suppressed or repressed by the law. The prohibition of enjoyment equals the creation of a “beyond” where surplus-enjoyment (although forbidden) finds its place. This “beyond” is the very thing from which the law draws its power to attach us, since the law really functions not when it manages to hold us simply by fear of its authority, but when we adhere to it through a specific mode of (our) enjoyment. The “shift” mentioned above concerns the fact that this other side of the law (its “back side”) becomes its front side. Or, perhaps more precisely: (surplus-) enjoyment is no longer a hidden support of the law; rather, it becomes one with the law, as if a kind of short circuit between the two had been established. This could also be expressed in terms of what, in his book Homo sacer, Giorgio Agamben develops at the political level: modern politics is characterized by the fact that the “state of emergency” (the state that is, at one and the same time, the exception to as well as the support of the rule of law) is itself becoming a rule of law.  Thus, the crucial feature of the ascetic ideal does not consist in the fact that the law (as the imperative of duty and self-denial) constitutes a weapon with which we are to fight our passions and drives; the law does not exactly “suppress” the drives and the passions. The problem and power of the ascetic ideal lie in the fact that it is only through it that passion actually “runs wild,” and becomes limitless. In paragraph 229 of Beyond Good and Evil, Nietzsche designates the “fear of the ‘wild, savage beast” (i.e. the fear of what, in men, is supposed to be lawless and animal-like) as superstition. The belief according to which there is some primary “wildness” in man (a wildness that has to be transformed by means of culture and spirit) is an empty belief. If there is a “pure passion” to be found in the history of Christianity (as the essential bearer of the ascetic ideal), it is to be found on the side of the Law, on the side of the ascetic ideal itself. In the struggle against sensuality and corporeality, in the “dissection of conscience,” there is an “abundant, overabundant enjoyment GenuB.”8 And “high culture” is based on the deepening and spiritualizing of cruelty: “that ‘wild beast’ has not been killed off at all, it lives and thrives, and it has only — made a divinity of itself...” It is only with the (Christian) law that sensuality as such gets invented. This was Kierkegaard’s thesis, but for Kierkegaard it basically means that, in contrast to the Greek individuality that strove for a balance between the spiritual and the sensual, Christianity, as the affirmation of the spiritual principle, also established its Other: it excluded the sensual, and thus merely granted it its autonomous existence.2° Nietzsche’s emphasis is slightly different: with the formation of the ascetic ideal, the sensual is not simply the Other of the law, but becomes the very thing that the law gives form to—it becomes one with the law. (The ascetic ideal “is employed to produce orgies of feeling,” as Nietzsche puts it.) The fundamental gesture of the ascetic ideal in relation to the sensual is not exclusion but, rather, something like a complete appropriation, an inclusion without any remainder. The sensual itself takes on the form of the law. If, on the one hand, the purely sensual or boundless passion is a fiction generated by the law (i.e. a fiction of an otherness sustained by the law), it is, on the other hand, the very Real of the law. Pure sensuality (passion, pleasure, voluptuousness) is nothing but the law itself. The law becomes the only Real (in the sense of the only source of excitation, passion, pleasure, and pain): the pleasures that remain outside (it) are, strictly speaking, “null” and “void” in relation to the (overabundant) pleasure that the law provides, gives body to, and enjoins. In this context, the assertion about the “nullity of pleasures” (outside the frame of the ascetic ideal) is not simply empty ideological talk, flatly contradicted by the Real of human experience. The triumph of the ascetic ideal consists precisely in the fact that, at some point, it conquers the very soil of “real human experience.” Before this, the pleasure might well have been dispersed, chaotic, without clear boundaries; yet this does not meant that it was infinite and boundless before the law set limits to it. On the contrary, the law (of the ascetic ideal) is the very name for limitless pleasure, for the enjoyment that became infinite and fathomless. In the ascetic ideal, the law is not something that sets limits to passion, restraining and regulating it. Instead, it is the very outlet of passion. It is the passion of the infinite or an infinite passion—even though it takes the form of an infinite passion to set limits, to purify, to narrow the circle around the pure. The only (now existing) infinite passion is the passion that takes on the form of the law. Precisely as the struggle against displeasure (in response to which it employs enjoyment), Christianity is also a struggle against pleasure, defined exactly as that which, in enjoyment, is not real (“fleeting pleasures,” “passing voluptuousness”) but “illusory.” And the genuine triumph of the ascetic ideal comes when people themselves (atheists included) actually and personally begin to feel that such pleasure is indeed “empty,” “null” and “illusory—that is to say, when it is no longer necessary for all kinds of church authorities to preach about it. This is why the ascetic ideal attains its climax (or becomes what it is) only after the “death of God.”  I have already indicated the proximity of these arguments to some of Freud’s claims from Civilization and Its Discontents. What Nietzsche analyzes under the name of “ascetic ideal” corresponds, almost point by point, to what Freud calls the superego, the law of an insatiable passion. The more we obey it, the more we sacrifice to it—the more it wants, and the more it gains in strength and severity. We are dealing with the same image of vampirism that is also present in Nietzsche: the (superego) law literally feeds on the drives, devouring their “blood,” and ultimately becoming the only real locus of enjoyment. It could be said that the superego itself comes to be “structured like a drive.” It is common knowledge that Freud posits a kind of temporal paradox at the very core of the superego and the moral conscience linked to it: the renouncement of the drives creates conscience, and conscience demands the renouncement of the drives.2’ In this way, the very form of renouncing becomes a form of enjoyment, a mode of its organization. This is especially blatant in obsessional neurosis, in which Freud recognizes the paradigm of “religious” thinking.  

Our alternative is to forget about the suffering in the 1ac. the pain cited by the 1ac is only attended to by the memory of the 1ac to further asceticism, only a break away from these memories solves.
Zupancic 03 alenka, “The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two,” 57-60

This is perhaps the moment to examine in more detail what Nietzschean “forgetting” is actually about. What is the capacity of forgetting as the basis of “great health”? Nietzsche claims that memory entertains some essential relationship with pain. This is what he describes as the principle used in human “mnemotechnics”: “If something is to stay in the memory it must be burned in: only that which never ceases to hurt stays in the memory”21 Thus, if memory is essentially related to pain (here it seems that Nietzsche claims the opposite of what psychoanalysis is claiming: that traumatic events are the privileged objects of repression; yet pain is not the same thing as trauma, just as “forgetting” is not the same thing as repressing), then forgetting refers above all to the capacity not to nurture pain. This also means the capacity not to make pain the determining ground of our actions and choices. What exactly is pain (not so much physical pain, but, rather, the “mental pain” that can haunt our lives)? It is a way in which the subject internalizes and appropriates some traumatic experience as her own bitter treasure, In other words, in relation to the traumatic event, pain is not exactly a part of this event, but already its memory (the “memory of the body”). And Nietzschean oblivion is not so much an effacement of the traumatic encounter as a preservation of its external character, of its foreignness, of its otherness. In Unfashionable Observations, Second Piece (“On the Utility and Liability of History for Life”), Nietzsche links the question of forgetting (which he employs as a synonym for the ahistorical) to the question of the act. Forgetting, oblivion, is the very condition of possibility for an act in the strong sense of the word. Memory (the “historical”) is eternal sleeplessness and alert insomnia, a state in which no great thing can happen, and which could even be said to serve this very purpose. Considering the common conception according to which memory is something monumental that “fixes” certain events, and closes us within their horizon, Nietzsche proposes a significantly different notion. It is precisely as an eternal openness, an unceasing stream, that memory can immobilize us, mortify us, make us incapable of action. Nietzsche invites us to imagine the extreme example of a human being who does not possess the power to forget. Such a human being would be condemned to see becoming everywhere: he would no longer believe in his own being, would see everything flow apart in turbulent particles, and would lose himself in this stream of becoming. He would be like the true student of Heraclitus. A human being who wanted to experience things in a thoroughly historical manner would be like someone forced to go without sleep.28 Memory holds us in eternal motion—it keeps opening numerous horizons, and this is precisely how it immobilizes us, forcing us into frenetic activity. Hence, Nietzsche advances a thesis that is as out of tune with our time as it was with his own: “every living thing can become healthy, strong and fruitful only within a defined horizon; if it is incapable of drawing a horizon around itself and too selfish, in turn, to enclose its own perspective within an alien horizon, then it will feebly waste away or hasten to its timely end.”29 Of course, Nietzsche’s aim here is not to preach narrow-mindedness and pettiness, nor is it simply to affirm the ahistorical against history and memory. On the contrary, he clearly states that it is only by thinking, reflecting, comparing, analyzing, and synthesizing (i.e. only by means of the power to utilize the past for life, and to reshape past events into history) that the human being becomes properly human. Yet, in the excess of history, the human being ceases to be human once again, no longer able to create or invent. This is why Nietzsche insists that “every great historical event” is born in the “ahistorical atmosphere,” that is to say, in conditions of oblivion and closure: Imagine a man seized and carried away by a vehement passion for a woman or for a great idea; how his world changes’ Looking backward he feels he is blind, listening around he hears what is unfamiliar as a dull, insignificant sound; and those things that he perceives at all he never before perceived in this way; so palpable and near, colorful, resonant, illuminated, as though he were apprehending it with all his senses at once. All his valuations are changed and devalued;. . . It is the most unjust condition in the world, narrow, ungrateful to the past, blind to dangers, deaf to warnings; a tiny whirlpool of life in a dead sea of night and oblivion; and yet this condition—ahistorical, antihistorical through and through— is not only womb of the unjust deed, but of every just deed as well; and no aftist will create a picture, no general win a victory, and no people gain its freedom without their having previously desired and striven to accomplish these deeds in just such an ahistorical condition. . Thus, everyone who acts loves his action infinitely more than it deserves to be loved, and the best deeds occur in such an exuberance of love that, no matter what, they must be unworthy of this love, even if their worth were otherwise incalculably great.3° If we read this passage carefully, we note that the point is not simply that the capacity to forget, or the “ahistorical condition,” is the condition of “great deeds” or “events.” On the contrary: it is the pure surplus of passion or love (for something) that brings about this closure of memory, this “ahistorical condition.” In other words, it is not that we have first to close ourselves within a defined horizon in order then to be able to accomplish something. The closure takes place with the very (“passionate”) opening toward something (“a woman or a great idea”). Nietzsche’s point is that if this surplus passion engages us “in the midst of life,” instead of mortifying us, it does so via its inducement of forgetting. Indeed, I could mention a quite common experience here: whenever something important happens to us and incites our passion, we tend to forget and dismiss the grudges and resentments we might have been nurturing before. Instead of “forgiving” those who might have injured us in the past, we forget and dismiss these injuries. If we do not, if we “work on our memory” and strive to keep these grudges alive, they will most probably affect and mortify our (new) passion. It could also be interesting to relate Nietzsche’s reflections from the quoted passage to the story of Hamlet, in which the imperative to remember, uttered by Hamlet’s father’s Ghost, plays a very prominent role. Remember me! Remember me!, the Ghost repeats to Hamlet, thus engaging him in the singular rhythm that characterizes the hero of this play—that of the alternation between resigned apathy and frenetic activity or precipitate actions (his killing of Polonius, as well as that of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern; his engagement in the duel with Laertes . . .). This movement prevents Hamlet from carrying out the very deed his father’s Ghost charges him with. Many things have been said and written about the relationship between action and knowledge in this play, and about how knowledge prevents Hamlet from acting. Although the two notions are not unrelated, it might be interesting to consider this also in terms of memory (not only in terms of knowledge). It could be worthwhile to contemplate the role played by the imperative of memory. Could we not say that one of the fundamental reasons for the difficulty of Hamlet’s position is precisely the structural incompatibility of memory and action— that is to say, the fact that action ultimately always “betrays” memory? And do we not encounter something similar in the wider phenomenon of melancholy (in the play, Hamlet is actually said to be “melancholic”) as a never-ending grief that keeps alive, through pain, the memory of what was lost? Additionally, although we can recognize in this kind of melancholy a form of fidelity (for instance—to use Nietzsche’s words—fidelity to “a woman or a great idea”), this kind of fidelity, bound to memory, should be distinguished from fidelity to the very event of the encounter with this woman or idea. Contrary to the first form, this second form of fidelity implies and presupposes the power to forget. Of course, this does not mean to forget in the banal sense of no longer remembering the person or the idea in question, but in the sense that forgetting liberates the potential of the encounter itself, and opens up—precisely through its “closure”—the possibility of a new one. 

1NC -- T
TOPICALITY -- The affirmative should have an advocacy statement tied to the benefits of the United States federal government substantially increasing its economic engagement toward Cuba, Mexico or Venezuela.

“Economic Engagement” is only tangible trade and financial benefits – not the aff.
Haass 2k – Richard Haass and Meghan O’Sullivan, Senior Fellows in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 5-6

Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from
engagement strategies in the upcoming decades.

A general subject isn’t enough—debate requires a specific point of difference
Steinberg and Freeley 8 *Austin J. Freeley is a Boston based attorney who focuses on criminal, personal injury and civil rights law, AND David L. Steinberg , Lecturer of Communication Studies @ U Miami, Argumentation and Debate: Critical Thinking for Reasoned Decision Making pp45-

Debate is a means of settling differences, so there must be a difference
AND
which will be outlined in the following discussion.

Topical fairness requirements are key to effective dialogue—monopolizing strategy and prep makes the discussion one-sided and subverts any meaningful neg role
Galloway 7—Samford Comm prof (Ryan, Contemporary Argumentation and Debate, Vol. 28, 2007)

Debate as a dialogue sets an argumentative table, where all parties receive a relatively
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do not accrue the dialogical benefits of topical advocacy.

Substantive constraints on the debate are key to actualize effective pluralism and agonistic democracy
John Dryzek 6, Professor of Social and Political Theory, The Australian National University, Reconciling Pluralism and Consensus as Political Ideals, American Journal of Political Science,Vol. 50, No. 3, July 2006, Pp. 634–649

A more radical contemporary pluralism is suspicious of liberal and communitarian
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the substance of what rightfully belongs in democratic debate. 

Constraints on deliberation are necessary to re-found the political---an untamed agon eviscerates political action and judgment skills
Dana Villa 96—prof of political science, Amherst, Beyond Good and Evil: Arendt, Nietzsche, and the Aestheticization of Political Action, Political Theory, Vol. 20, No. 2 (May, 1992), pp. 274-308

The representative thinking made possible by disinterested judgment is Arendt‘s Kantian version
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of meaning created by political action and redeemed by political judgment.

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: 4 | Opponent: Chattahoochee KM | Judge: Smiley, Adam

1NC

Chinese influence in Cuba is high – that spills over to broader Latin American countries.

PLNA 11/7, Prensa Latina News Agency, 2013, "Chinese President Stresses Importance of Relations with Cuba," http://en.escambray.cu/2013/chinese-president-stresses-importance-of-relations-with-cuba/)//DR. H

Xi Jinping stressed the great importance China grants to its relations with Cuba, and said the two nations should continue high-level exchanges, share experiences, and deepen cooperation in the international arena.
His criteria were expressed during a meeting with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez, who concluded today an official visit to this country.
The Chinese leader recalled earlier meetings with President Raul Castro and Fidel Castro, and said that Cuba and China are good friends, partners, and brothers.
Xi, who is a general secretary of the Communist Party of China and chairman of the Central Military Commission, received the Cuban foreign minister, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Cuba, at the Great People’s Palace in this capital.
The Chinese leader recalled earlier meetings with President Raul Castro and the historic leader of the Cuban Revolution, Fidel Castro, and stressed that Cuba and China are good friends, partners, and brothers.
He insisted in the great importance China grants to its ties with the Caribbean nation, and stated that the two sides should promote relations from the Asian country with Latin American and Caribbean countries.

Changes in US-Cuba policy effect overall influence in Latin America – crowds China out.

Doherty 8 (Patrick, "An Obama Policy for Cuba," McClathy Newspapers, December 12, cuba.newamerica.net/publications/articles/2008/obama_policy_cuba_9301)

With his national security team in place, President-elect Barack Obama’s foreign policy
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Hugo Chavez, drugs, immigration, energy insecurity - will simply fester.

Chinese influence in Latin America is key to maintain their economic growth.

Arnson et al. ’9 (Cynthia Anderson, Mark Mohr, Riordan Roett, writers for Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "Enter the Dragon? China’s Presence in Latin America", http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf) (JN)

China’s role in Latin America is, above all, based on trade, despite
AND
region. Thus, Latin America represents a substantial market for Chinese goods.

Chinese economic decline causes great power war.

Kane 01 ~Thomas Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull 26 Lawrence Serewicz, Autumn, http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm~~

Despite China’s problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be
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China’s government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.

Text: The United States federal government should

-offer to return Guantánamo naval base to Cuba on the condition that Cuba accepts all of the prisoners.

-continue to enforce sanctions against its engagement with Cuba.

-no longer enforce sanctions on other countries engaging with Cuba.

CP solves – prerequisite to normalization of relations.

Landau and Brenner 8/3 (Saul Landau is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies, Philip Brenner is a professor of international relations at American University and co-editor of A Contemporary Cuba Reader, 8/3/13, "A Simple Solution," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/saul-landau/a-simple-solution_b_3700652.html)//DR. H

President Barack Obama has a simple way to solve his Guantánamo dilemma. Five years after the president promised to close the detention center for alleged terrorists the prison remains open and continues to leave a stain on the honor and integrity of the United States and its proclaimed commitment to universal human rights.
With a brief and unambiguous message to Cuba’s President Raúl Castro, President Obama could
AND
could break through the barriers of distrust and misunderstanding both countries have erected.
Most Americans don’t know the history of Guantánamo. Under the terms of the 1902
AND
/11 attacks the military converted the camp to a high security prison.
To be sure, several matters would need to be negotiated in order to implement this "simple" solution. Apart from the disposition of the base facilities, the two countries would need to agree on the latitude Cuba would have with regard to the prisoners. For example, the United States might seek assurances that Cuba would prevent the travel of released prisoners to the United States or a U.S. territory.
But once positive energy vibrates through U.S.-Cuba diplomacy, many of the disagreements between the two countries would emerge as soluble, as solutions build on one another to engender confidence. It is likely that even before the details of returning the naval base to Cuba were settled, the two countries might be able to overcome the most vexing, immediate source of irritation between them.
The United States holds in federal prisons four Cuban agents convicted of espionage, and Cuba holds an employee of a U.S. Agency for International Development subcontractor convicted of "acts against the independence or territorial integrity of the state." Just as we have swapped prisoners with Russia and other adversaries, there is nothing stopping us from exchanging Mr. Gross for the four and allowing them all to return to their homes.
Similarly, Cuba has successfully negotiated agreements over expropriated property with every country except the United States. The typical debt-for-equity formula Cuba has used could resolve this fifty-year old issue to the benefit of U.S. citizens and corporations, and might even open the way to new U.S. investment in Cuba.
Or consider that the United States and Cuba already have achieved impressive levels of cooperation in areas of mutual concern - such as drug interdiction and natural disaster preparation - which would be even more effective if the engagements could be deepened, institutionalized, and undertaken without fear of domestic repercussions.
The U.S.-Cuba relationship has baffled ten previous U.S.
AND
until now the United States has responded with a self-defeating aloofness.
As dozens of Guantánamo detainees continue their hunger strike, and a ruling about force-feeding them remains in limbo between different federal courts, the moment is ripe for President Obama to act with courage and decisiveness. Guantánamo gives him the opportunity of turning a lemon into lemonade.

Engagement with Cuba is appeasement

Rubin ’11 - Labor Law Attorney and Washington Post Journalist, quotes the chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, quotes a report by the Associated Press, quotes the former deputy national security advisor, (Jennifer, August 18, 2011, "Obama’s Cuba appeasement", http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/obamas-cuba-appeasement/2011/03/29/gIQAjuL2tL_blog.html )HH

The chairwoman of the foreign affairs committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was
AND
Gross, not engage in a quid-pro-quo with tyrants."
As bad as a prisoner exchange would have been, the administration actions didn’t stop
AND
French company Pernod Ricard to sell Havana Club rum in the United States."
Former deputy national security adviser Elliott Abrams explained, "It is especially offensive that
AND
for democracy should not be a subject of negotiation with the Castro regime."
The administration’s conduct is all the more galling given the behavior of the Castro regime. Our willingness to relax sanctions was not greeted with goodwill gestures, let alone systemic reforms. To the contrary, this was the setting for Gross’s imprisonment. So naturally the administration orders up more of the same.
Throughout his tenure, President Obama has failed to comprehend the cost-benefit analysis that despotic regimes undertake. He has offered armfuls of goodies and promised quietude on human rights; the despots’ behavior has worsened. There is simply no downside for rogue regimes to take their shots at the United States.
Whether it is Cuba or Iran, the administration reverts to "engagement" mode
AND
to throw gifts to tyrants in the expectation they will reciprocate in kind.

Single issues aren’t key to cred.

Lake, 10– Professor of Social Sciences, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego (David A., "Making America Safe for the World: Multilateralism and the Rehabilitation of US authority", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~~dlake/documents/LakeMakingAmericaSafe.pdf)//DR. H

President Obama and his administration appear to recognize the need to bolster the authority and
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even deeper into multilateral institutions that can provide real checks on potential opportunism.

"Credibility" is irrelevant – states will evaluate threats based off current capabilities and interests – basically every academic study is on our side and you’ll only have evidence from think tankers and pundits.

Fettweis 08 – Professor of political science at Tulane (Christopher, "Credibility and the War on Terror," Winter 2008, Political Science Quarterly)Bwang
*Sociology and Evidence proves.

Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable to identify cases in which high credibility
AND
a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably failed.40

Cuba’s not key to Latin American relations, or plan hurts them

Suchlicki 2k. (Jaime, University of Miami, s Emilio Bacardi Moreau Professor of History ¶ and International Studies and the Director of the Institute for Cuban ¶ and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. June "The U.S. Embargo of Cuba" http://www6.miami.edu/iccas/USEmbargo.pdf)

Cuba is not an important issue in U.S.-Latin American relations.
AND
tourism will flock to Cuba, to the detriment of the Caribbean economies. 

Perception of waning relations with Cuba’s inevitable.

Hanson and Lee ’13 - Senior Production Editors at CFR (Updated: 1/31/13, Stephanie, Brianna, Council on Foreign Relations, "U.S.-Cuba Relations",
http://www.cfr.org/cuba/us-cuba-relations/p11113~~23p5)
*ideological differences over politics, human rights, gitmo, Cuban exile community. 

What is the main obstacle in U.S.-Cuban relations? A fundamental
AND
alienating a strong voting bloc in an important swing state in presidential elections.

No Latin American conflict impact

Ghitis, 12 - an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor (Frida, World Politics Review, "Latin America, the World’s Democracy Lab" 7/5,
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12127/world-citizen-latin-america-the-worlds-democracy-lab)

Democracy in Latin America has created a new set of rules for what continue to
AND
killing those on the other side of the ideological divide. No more. 

Violence is unlikely to escalate to large scale conflict or pose at threat to US security interests

Cárdenas, 3-17-11  ~Mauricio, senior fellow and director of the Latin America Initiative at the Brookings Institution, was cabinet minister during the Gaviria and Pastrana administrations in Colombia. Think Again Latin America, Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/03/17/think_again_latin_america?page=full~~
"Latin America is violent and dangerous." Yes, but not unstable. Latin
AND
tactic which contributed in large part to the organization’s loss of popular support.

No Bio-D impact.

Sagoff, 97 - Mark, Senior Research Scholar – Institute for Philosophy and Public policy in School of Public Affairs – U. Maryland, William and Mary Law Review, "INSTITUTE OF BILL OF RIGHTS LAW SYMPOSIUM DEFINING TAKINGS: PRIVATE PROPERTY AND THE FUTURE OF GOVERNMENT REGULATION: MUDDLE OR MUDDLE THROUGH? TAKINGS JURISPRUDENCE MEETS THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT", 38 Wm and Mary L. Rev. 825, March, L/N
Note – Colin Tudge - Research Fellow at the Centre for Philosophy at the London School of Economics. Frmr Zoological Society of London: Scientific Fellow and tons of other positions. PhD. Read zoology at Cambridge.
Simon Levin = Moffet Professor of Biology, Princeton. 2007 American Institute of Biological Sciences Distinguished Scientist Award 2008 Istituto Veneto di Scienze Lettere ed Arti 2009 Honorary Doctorate of Science, Michigan State University 2010 Eminent Ecologist Award, Ecological Society of America 2010 Margalef Prize in Ecology, etc… PhD 

Although one may agree with ecologists such as Ehrlich and Raven that the earth stands
AND
sense, good for mankind. The most valuable things are quite useless.

Plan kills Brazil’s sugar industry.

Miami Herald 02 (6/26/02, "Cuba embargo under fire - Sally Grooms Cowal’s Group cites benefits for U.S.," http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/706185/posts)//DR. H

4. The next reason in favor of doing away with the embargo runs as
AND
be less of the market for the American sugar industry to go around.
In addition, what would happen abroad to Brazil’s sugar market, one of the
AND
it would go against the free trade ideology espoused by Washington these days.
Is the U.S. going to harden the grip of Castro by granting
AND
Communist government subsidies in order to retain a share of the American market.

That causes Brazilian economic instability.

SC 12 (Sugarcane.org, AT: Website’s Bias212121 – Cites objective data…, 6/19/12, "Impact on Brazil’s Economy," http://sugarcane.org/the-brazilian-experience/impact-on-brazils-economy)//DR. H

The sugarcane industry – including cultivation, processing and refined products – represents an important segment of the Brazilian economy.
Economic Contribution
In 2010, the sugarcane sector contributes US2450 billion to Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) – equivalent to almost 2.4 of the entire Brazilian economy and comparable to the GDP of a European country like Slovenia (US2447.7 billion).
When you add in the various suppliers and stakeholders who depend on Brazil’s sugarcane industry, the entire sugarcane agro-industrial system generates gross revenues totaling more than US2486 billion annually.
Good Jobs
The sugarcane industry employs 1.28 million workers, according to 2008 data from the Ministry of Labor and Employment’s Annual Report of Social Information (RAIS).

Nuclear war.

Shulz 2k (Donald, Research Professor of National Security Policy at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College THE UNITED STATES AND LATIN AMERICA: SHAPING AN ELUSIVE FUTURE, March) 

While we are in a speculative mode, it may be useful to raise the
AND
, currently a "non-NATO ally" of the United States. 

Not enough sugar and Castro says no

Sanchez ’11
Adriana E. Sanchez, NotiEn, News Agency, 2011, "Biofuels Fighting for Space in Central America and Cuba," http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/12797/Biofuels20Fighting20for20Space20in20Central20America20and20Cuba.pdf?sequence=1

Similar to Central America, Cuba’s potential to become a leader in biofuel production is
AND
an analyst for the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. 

Imported Cuban biofuel trades off with corn ethanol production in the US

Specht 4/24 (Jonathan Specht, BA from University of California Davis, 4/24/13, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States", http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf)

Unless Congress raises the RFS by a sufficient degree to absorb all domestic ethanol production
AND
the Midwest, then on Florida, then on the United States generally.

No warming impacts.

Burnett, 12 – Sterling, Ph.D., Senior Fellow in Environment and Energy at the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA), "Fraud and Heartland: A Scandal for Climate Alarmists, not Skeptics," 2-22, http://environmentblog.ncpa.org/fraud-and-heartland-a-scandal-for-climate-alarmists-not-skeptics/. 

Sadly (for him), Peter Gleick, the researcher at issue, could have
AND
," behind global warming skepticism. Who says the Progressive era has passed?

No food wars, and they don’t escalate.

Salehyan 08 (Idean, Prof. Pol. Sci. @ North Texas, Journal of Peace Research, "From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet", 45:3, Sage, DOI: 10.1177/0022343308088812)

A few caveats are in order here. It is important to note, again
AND
and can be managed if there is the political will to do so. 

No risk of nuclear terror.

Chapman 12 (Stephen, editorial writer for Chicago Tribune, "CHAPMAN: Nuclear terrorism unlikely," May 22, http://www.oaoa.com/articles/chapman-87719-nuclear-terrorism.html)

A layperson may figure it’s only a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to
AND
, it appears, the worst eventuality is one that will never happen.

Prolif will be slow.

Tepperman 09 – ~Jonathan, Newsweek International’s first Assistant Managing Editor (now Deputy Editor), "Why Obama Should Learn to Love the Bomb" 8-29, http://www.newsweek.com/2009/08/28/why-obama-should-learn-to-love-the-bomb.html, SM~

The risk of an arms race—with, say, other Persian Gulf states
AND
decided to pursue their own weapon, that still might not be so disastrous

Block

Gradual transition now—-political liberalization is facilitating an economic "soft landing"—-solves the Aff

Piccone, 10/3 – Acting Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institute (Ted, "Cuba’s Stroll Toward Change: A View from the Streets", Brookings Institute, 10/3/13, http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2013/10/03-cuba-trip-piccone)//SJF

We are witnessing today the unfolding of a transitional hybrid economy that has one foot
AND
investment are too restrictive and arbitrarily enforced and property rights remain in doubt.
Nonetheless, the package of changes underway in Cuba, under the auspices of Raúl
AND
, Cuba will look even more different than it did five years ago.
This shift is already visible. Open debates among Cuban citizens, including one I
AND
, despite continued harassment and detentions. Change is in the tropical air.
As Cuba opens its economy to the world, and gradually finds the confidence to
AND
reconciliation – both within the island and across the Florida Straits – begin.

Cuba has no preparation for change and wouldn’t be able to take it all at once—-lifting the embargo would cause a rapid democratic uprising

Erikson, 8 – Senior Advisor for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the U.S. Department of State and has an M.A. in Public Policy from Harvard University and a B.A. from Brown University (Daniel P., "The Cuba Wars: Fidel Castro, the United States, and the Next Revolution", Bloomsbury Press, 10/28/08, p. 250-251)EX

Like most of his colleagues, Monreal readily agreed that the United States was the
AND
the ability of the Cuban government to control this fight is very limited."
Gorrell, 5 - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
AND
in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Rapprochement coming now, but it’s slow and fragile – the Aff crushes diplomatic momentum

AP, 6/21 (Associated Press, "Cuba, U.S. try talking, but face many obstacles", Naples News, 6/21/13, http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2013/jun/21/cuba-us-try-talking-face-many-obstacles/)//SJF

They’ve hardly become allies, but Cuba and the U.S. have taken some baby steps toward rapprochement in recent weeks that have people on this island and in Washington wondering if a breakthrough in relations could be just over the horizon.
Skeptics caution that the Cold War enemies have been here many times before, only to fall back into old recriminations. But there are signs that views might be shifting on both sides of the Florida Straits.
In the past week, the two countries have held talks on resuming direct mail
AND
changes, including making it easier for Cubans to travel off the island.
Under the radar, diplomats on both sides describe a sea change in the tone of their dealings.
Only last year, Cuban state television was broadcasting grainy footage of American diplomats meeting with dissidents on Havana streets and publically accusing them of being CIA front-men. Today, U.S. diplomats in Havana and Cuban Foreign Ministry officials have easy contact, even sharing home phone numbers.
Josefina Vidal, Cuba’s top diplomat for North American affairs, recently traveled to Washington and met twice with State Department officials — a visit that came right before the announcements of resumptions in the two sets of bilateral talks that had been suspended for more than two years. Washington has also granted visas to prominent Cuban officials, including the daughter of Cuba’s president.
"These recent steps indicate a desire on both sides to try to move forward, but also a recognition on both sides of just how difficult it is to make real progress," said Robert Pastor, a professor of international relations at American University and former national security adviser on Latin America during the Carter administration. "These are tiny, incremental gains, and the prospects of going backwards are equally high."
Among the things that have changed, John Kerry has taken over as U.S. secretary of state after being an outspoken critic of Washington’s policy on Cuba while in the Senate. President Barack Obama no longer has re-election concerns while dealing with the Cuban-American electorate in Florida, where there are also indications of a warming attitude to negotiating with Cuba.
Cuban President Raul Castro, meanwhile, is striving to overhaul the island’s Marxist economy
AND
private businesses and refurbish homes bought under Castro’s limited free-market reforms.
Several prominent Cuban dissidents have been allowed to travel recently due to Castro’s changes. The trips have been applauded by Washington, and also may have lessened Havana’s worries about the threat posed by dissidents.
Likewise, a U.S. federal judge’s decision to allow Cuban spy Rene Gonzalez to return home was met with only muted criticism inside the United States, perhaps emboldening U.S. diplomats to seek further openings with Cuba.

The Cuban government can’t control the outcome—-lack of scapegoat causes disruptive uprising

Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, "Time for a New Cuba Policy" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)

The United States needs to take the initiative away from the Castro regime, and
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the Cuban economy sputters and the government realizes they don’t have a scapegoat.

Obama is pursuing hard-line policies now – reject their evidence – its partisan nonsense

*Obama has massive credibility now – his hardline policies are off the roof – he escalated the war in Afghanistan, led efforts to impose harsher economic sanctions on Iran, adopted a hostile stance regarding China’s ambitious territorial claims and became the godfather of NATO’s military campaign – your evidence is bizarre cherry picking and partisan nonsense
Mataconis 12 – B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law (Doug, and~2334;The GOP’s Ridiculous Appeasement Argumentand~2334;, January 3 of 2012, http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/the-gops-ridiculous-appeasement-argument/)  CB

This isn’t really entirely new, of course. For three years now, Republicans
AND
clear that people have a hard time differentiating between facts and partisan rhetoric.
As Ted Galen Carpenter notes in a piece that appeared last week, though, the facts simply don’t support the argument that Republicans are making:
The appeasement allegations directed against Obama, though, border on bizarre. And the president fired back at his opponents, suggesting that they ask Osama Bin Laden and the twenty-two other high-level al-Qaeda operatives who have been killed since Obama took office whether he is an appeaser. Fox News host Sean Hannity immediately sneered that Obama merely cited "his one foreign policy success." By success, Hannity implicitly meant an uncompromising, hard-line policy.
But even by that dubious standard, the Republican appeasement charge is misguided. The
AND
overthrow Muammar Gaddafi. That’s not exactly a record reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain.

Obama’s hardcore

Mataconis 12 – B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law, (Doug, January 3, 2012, "The GOP’s Ridiculous Appeasement Argument, http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/the-gops-ridiculous-appeasement-argument/)//HH

This isn’t really entirely new, of course. For three years now, Republicans
AND
clear that people have a hard time differentiating between facts and partisan rhetoric.
As Ted Galen Carpenter notes in a piece that appeared last week, though, the facts simply don’t support the argument that Republicans are making:
The appeasement allegations directed against Obama, though, border on bizarre. And the president fired back at his opponents, suggesting that they ask Osama Bin Laden and the twenty-two other high-level al-Qaeda operatives who have been killed since Obama took office whether he is an appeaser. Fox News host Sean Hannity immediately sneered that Obama merely cited "his one foreign policy success." By success, Hannity implicitly meant an uncompromising, hard-line policy.
But even by that dubious standard, the Republican appeasement charge is misguided. The
AND
overthrow Muammar Gaddafi. That’s not exactly a record reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain.

Emboldens Cuba

Brookes 09, Senior Fellow in National Security Affairs at the Heritage Foundation, 09,
(Peter, 4/16/2009, The Heritage Foundation, "Keep the Embargo, O", http://www .heritage.org/research/commentary/2009/04/keep-the-embargo-o, 6/28/2013) GM.

In the end, though, it’s still Fidel Castro and his brother Raul who’ll
AND
, Russia and Iran might also look to partner with a revitalized Cuba.)

Plan doesn’t help Latin American relations—they secretly like the embargo

Suchlicki 2k (JAIME SUCHLICKI is Emilio Bacardi Moreau Professor of History and International Studies and the Director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. He was the founding Executive Director of the North-South Center. For the past decade he was also the editor of the prestigious Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs. He is currently the Latin American Editor for Transaction Publishers and the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro (1997), now in its fourth edition, and editor with Irving L. Horowitz of Cuban Communism (1999). He is also the author of Mexico: From Montezuma to NAFTA (1998). He is a highly regarded consultant to both the private and public sector on Cuba and Latin American affairs. The U.S. Embargo of Cuba Jaime Suchlicki University of Miami June 2000 http://www6.miami.edu/iccas/USEmbargo.pdf, nkj) Note: The first line of the card is saying an aff argument and then refuting it.

If we lift the Embargo, U.S.-Latin American relations will improve.
Cuba is not an important issue in U.S.-Latin American relations.
AND
tourism will flock to Cuba, to the detriment of the Caribbean economies.

Ending sanctions doesn’t solve relations

Hanson 09 associate director and coordinating editor at CFR.org 2009 Stephanie "US Cuba Relations" Council on Foreign Relations 4/14 http://gees.org/documentos/Documen-03412.pdf

Given the range of issues dividing the two countries, experts say there is a long process that would precede resumption of diplomatic relations. Daniel P. Erikson of the InterAmerican Dialogue says that though "you could have the resumption of bilateral talks on issues related to counternarcotics or immigration, or a period of détente, you are probably not going to see the full restoration of diplomatic relations" in the near term.
Many recent policy reports have recommended that the United States take some unilateral steps to
AND
process risks falling victim to the politics of the issue," says Sweig.

Energy boom makes heg resilient.

Johnson 12/2, Tim, "Fuel boom key to U.S. superpower status?" http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/fuel-boom-key-to-u-s-superpower-status/article_82ae5b45-d49f-58d9-9832-8cae2d29b7f5.html)//DR. H

For the past 40 years, U.S. presidents have launched distant wars, allied with autocratic sheiks and dispatched naval fleets to protect sea lanes, all for the imperative of keeping foreign oil spigots flowing.
That imperative has now subsided. Rather suddenly, the center of gravity of global energy production has swung toward the Americas as shale oil and gas fields in North Dakota and Texas hum with activity. America is moving to the fore as the world’s largest producer of petroleum and natural gas. That change will reorder the globe in ways large and small.
U.S. experts say it will prolong the United States’ position as the predominant global superpower. Arab nations that shook the world with the 1973 oil embargo almost certainly will be weakened. Russia will find its power ebb as European nations find alternate suppliers for natural gas. New energy technologies will reorder the scales of global winners and losers.

No impact to heg.

Ikenberry 08 – professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University (John, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West Can the Liberal System Survive?" Jan/Feb 2008, Foreign Affairs)

Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the
AND
, but the Western order — if managed properly — will live on.

Unworkable land and long-time frame

Soligo ’10
et al; Ronald Soligo is a professor emeritus of economics at Rice University and a Rice scholar at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. The author writes a chapter within the book "Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation," a Brookings Publication, edited by Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska –obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 102

Three and a half billion gallons seems unrealistic for the foreseeable future. There is
AND
water and fertilizer, and other inputs would all need to be considered.

Castro hates it

Specht ’12 (Jonathan – Legal Advisor, Pearlmaker Holsteins, Inc. B.A., Louisiana State University, 2009; J.D.,¶ Washington University in St. Louis 2012. "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States" – ExpressO – http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf)

To speak of a Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol industry is, at this point
AND
to 2 billion gallons of¶ sugar-based ethanol per year."¶ 4

Fidel’s shadow

Frank ’8 Havana-based Reuters correspondent Marc Frank is a former writer for the People’s Daily World – Reuters – Feb 22, 2008 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2008/02/22/cuba-castro-ethanol-idUSN2261316320080222

Cuba will only jump on the ethanol bandwagon if it can produce the biofuel from
AND
, I can’t imagine that happening for quite some time," he said.

Released important launch code info.

DT 01, Daily Targum, 9/27/01, "Bad science," http://www.dailytargum.com/bad-science/article_875fea7d-4835-5f47-b823-3eea10ec0657.html)//DR. H

The government, following the Watergate scandal, went to Stanford University where Dr.
AND
out, on the grounds that the NSA was violating his academic freedom.

Consensus of experts.

Fay 13, Matt, PhD student in the history department at Temple University, has a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science from St. Xavier University and a Master’s in International Relations and Conflict Resolution with a minor in Transnational Security Studies from American Military University, 7/18/13, "The Ever-Shrinking Odds of Nuclear Terrorism", webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:HoItCUNhbgUJ:hegemonicobsessions.com/3Fp3D902+26cd=126hl=en26ct=clnk26gl=us26client=firefox-a

For over a decade now, one of the most oft-repeated threats raised
AND
terrorism hardly warrants the type of exertions many alarmist assessments indicate it should.

Exaggerations - their authors look for the worst to validate their claims, this means their impact cards are apocalyptic nonsense
Potter 08 – ~William C. and Mukhatzhanova Gaukhar, * Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies and Director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and  Research Associate at the James Martin Center, "Divining Nuclear Intentions: a review essay." International Security, Vol. 33, No. 1 (Summer 2008), pp. 139–169, Google scholar~ 

For much of the nuclear age, academic experts, intelligence analysts, and public
AND
on the part of the more sophisticated frameworks and models of nuclear decisionmaking.

Tournament: Tournament of Champions | Round: 4 | Opponent: Lexington FK | Judge: Shore, Sam
1NC -- T
Engagement towards a government must be conditional, the plan isn’t
Haass and O’Sullivan, 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution AND a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution (Richard and Meghan, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies” Survival _{vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer20haass/2000survival.pdf}

Many different types of engagement strategies exist, depending on who is engaged,
AND
promoting forces that will eventually facilitate cooperation.

1NC -- US Politics

Patent reform will pass but there’s a narrow window; it’s key to the economy and US competitiveness
Pappas, 4/24/14 - Peter C. Pappas is the former Chief of Staff at the USPTO, where he served from 2009-2013. He is a senior advisor to Engine, an advocacy organization supporting startups and technology entrepreneurship (“The Senate and Patent Reform: The Time Is Now” Roll Call, http://www.rollcall.com/news/the_senate_and_patent_reform_the_time_is_now_commentary-232363-1.html?pos=oopih)

Recently, word from the Senate Judiciary Committee is that negotiators
AND
improve and strengthen the patent system.

Obama’s rallying Senate support -- that’s key.
Lengell, 4/4/14 (Sean, Washington Examiner, “Lawmakers look to stop patent abuse”, http://washingtonexaminer.com/lawmakers-look-to-stop-patent-abuse/article/2546745)

Momentum is building on Capitol Hill to stop "patent trolls"
AND
National Retail Federation, which is pushing for the legislation.

Plan is unpopular.
Dallas Morning News ‘8 - July 2008 – “EDITORIAL: NADBank deserves U.S. funding” ProQuest

Not everyone agrees about the merits of the North American Free Trade Agreement
AND
help ensure that the bank's important work stays on track in the future. 

That closes the window on reform by alienating Democrats.
Wild, 2/23/14 (Joff, “Concerns in Senate and approaching election could stymie patent litigation reform moves” Intellectual Asset Management Magazine, http://www.iam-magazine.com/Blog/Detail.aspx?g=0fe92d4e-915d-4f15-925e-60b452f2e093)

The window of opportunity for the passing of a federal patent
AND
by a 325 to 91 margin in December 2013.

US competitiveness solves hegemony and great power war
Baru 9 – Sanjaya Baru is a Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School in Singapore Geopolitical Implications of the Current Global Financial Crisis, Strategic Analysis, Volume 33, Issue 2 March 2009 , pages 163 – 168

Hence, economic policies and performance do have strategic
AND
military power, the classic 'guns versus butter' dilemma. 

1NC – Coercion

Reject the aff’s coercive politics -- voluntary efforts solve the AFF.
Younkins, 2k (Dr. Edward W. Younkins, Professor of Accountancy and Business Administration at Wheeling Jesuit University in West Virginia, “Civil Society: The Realm of Freedom,” No 63, 6-10-2000, http://www.quebecoislibre.org/000610-11.htm, JMP) 

Recently (and ironically), government projects and programs
AND
and politicians “solve” our problems and run our lives.  

1NC – Mexico Politics DA

Secondary laws passing now – next two weeks are key.
MergerMarket 4/17 – (2014, leading independent MandA media service, in Forbes, “All Eyes On Mexico: Energy Reform Creating Opportunities Across Oil And Gas Supply Chain,” http://www.forbes.com/sites/mergermarket/2014/04/17/all-eyes-on-mexico-energy-reform-creating-opportunities-across-oil-and-gas-supply-chain/)

In the next two weeks, Mexico’s lawmakers are expected
AND
other parts of the oil and gas supply chain. 

US intervention kills Nieto’s political flexibility – that prevents a successful reform deal
Payan 12 – Ph.D., is the fellow in Mexico Studies and director of the Mexico Center at Rice University’s Baker Institute, adjunct associate professor at Rice University, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at El Paso, and serves on the graduate faculty at the Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez (Tony, “What’s ahead for Mexico-U.S. relations?”, Houston Chronicle, 7/23/12, http://blog.chron.com/bakerblog/2012/07/whatE28099s-ahead-for-u-s-mexico-relations/)//SJF

But the post-election honeymoon was not to last. First, the leftist Revolutionary Democratic
AND
cooperation in fits and starts. Change? Hardly.

Implementing the energy reforms is key to the Mexican economy – on the brink now but reforms boost social programs and entrepreneurship and stabilize the budget.
Flannery 13 – (12/16, Nathaniel, Latin America focused analyst and writer, Forbes, MA in international affairs from Columbia University (SIPA), “What Does Mexico's Oil Industry Reform Mean For Investors?” http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2013/12/16/what-does-mexicos-oil-industry-reform-mean-for-investors/)

Last week Mexico’s Congress approved a bill to end a seven-decade
AND
said, “I think it is going to be a game-changer.” 

Pemex driven economic growth is key to Mexican stability – alternative is state failure.
Barnes 11 – (4/29/11, Joe, Bonner Means Baker Fellow James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy Rice University, “Oil and U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Relations,” http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-BarnesBilateral-04292011.pdf) 

In summary, the slow decline of Mexican oil production, in and of
AND
development into something like Norway’s Statol would mark an important improvement.36 

Mexican instability spills over to create other failed states in Latin America.
Manwaring 07 – (Dec. 2007, Max, General Douglas MacArthur Chair and Professor of Military Strategy at the U.S. Army War College, retired U.S. Army colonel, Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, “A CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGE TO STATE SOVEREIGNTY: GANGS AND OTHER ILLICIT TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATIONS IN CENTRAL AMERICA, EL SALVADOR, MEXICO, JAMAICA, AND BRAZIL,” Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.voltairenet.org/IMG/pdf/Transnational_Criminal_Organizations.pdf)

This convoluted array of Mexican gangs, Central American
AND
within and between which the gang phenomenon operates.59 

Extinction.
Manwaring 05 (Max G., Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, VENEZUELA’S HUGO CHÁVEZ, BOLIVARIAN SOCIALISM, AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE, October 2005, pg. PUB628.pdf)

President Chávez also understands that the process leading to state failure is
AND
global security, peace, and prosperity.65

1NC – Kritik

Anxiety and fear of insecurity create hatred and prevent inner peace -- we must recognize that we cannot grasp the true reality of war -- otherwise, extinction becomes inevitable.
Lama Yeshe, 1983. Thubten “Anxiety in the Nuclear Age,” http://www.lamayeshe.com/index.php?sect=articleandid=128.

What’s the good of worrying about things twenty-four hours a day,
AND
don’t waste your time with pessimistic thoughts, fear or worry. Thank you so much.

The alternative is to shed the ego --- this creates a realization of our unity with all living things.
Snauwaert 09 Dale, Fall 2009. Associate Professor of Educational Theory and Social Foundations of Education; Chair of the Department of Foundations of Education, University of Toledo. “The Ethics and Ontology of Cosmopolitanism: Education for a Shared Humanity,” Current Issues in Comparative Education 12.1, http://www.tc.edu/cice/Issues/12.01/PDFs/12_01_Complete_Issue.pdf.

Cosmopolitans assert the existence of a duty of moral consideration
AND
rests upon an awareness of our fundamental interconnection.

1NC -- CP
Text: The United States federal government should expand the mandate of the North American Development Bank and substantially increase its investment in North American Development Bank economic assistance towards Mexico if and only if Mexico agrees to extradite Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán to the United States.
Leverage is key and solves drug trafficking in Mexico.
The Guardian 2/25, 2014, “El Chapo capture: Mexico says no plan to extradite Joaquin Guzmán to US,” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/26/el-chapo-capture-mexico-says-no-plan-to-extradite-joaquin-guzmn-to-us, Accessed 3/20/14)DR. H

Mexico has said it will keep Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán in its highest-security
AND
He won’t be allowed to continue with his operations.”

Solves bioterror.
Mora 12, Edwin, Quoting the acting DHS inspector general, 8/22/12, “Mexican Cartels ‘Increasingly’ Corrupting DHS Employees to Smuggle Aliens From Countries ‘Likely to Export Terrorism’,” http://cnsnews.com/news/article/mexican-cartels-increasingly-corrupting-dhs-employees-smuggle-aliens-countries-likely, Accessed 4/15/14)DR. H

(CNSNews.com) – Mexican cartels “increasingly” are involved in
AND
through financial difficulties, gambling, debts, or sexual infidelity.”

Extinction.
Discovery 9 – Award-winning source of credible, unbiased, and easy-to-understand explanations of how the world actually works (How Stuff Works, February 19, 2009, “10 Ways the World Might End: A Monster Plague,” http://videos.howstuffworks.com/science/10-ways-the-world-will-end-videos-playlist.htm)//DR. H

Narrator: Conventional science holds the deadly viruses that
AND
no one will be spared a terrible, ugly death.

1NC -- Agriculture Advantage

No disease impact.
Posner 05 – (Richard A., Judge U.S. Court of Appeals 7th Circuit, Professor Chicago School of Law, January 1, 2005, Skeptic, Altadena, CA, Catastrophe: Risk and Response, http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-most-significant.html#abstract) 

Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease
AND
through gene splicing into a far more lethal pathogen than smallpox ever was.

Small farms fail
McWilliams 09 (James, historian at Texas State University, 10/7, http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/07/let-the-farmers-market-debate-continue/?apage=2)

Some academic critics are starting to wonder. Writing in
AND
that make our farmer friends a little uncomfortable.
?

No impact to monocultures
Wood 2002 (Dr. Dave, ecologist from UK who has lived in India, “One Hand Clapping: Organic Farming in India,” December 12, http://www.cgfi.org/materials/articles/2002/dec_12_02_wood.htm)

The reality of monocultures is the exact opposite: all our important
AND
Outlook on Agriculture 30, 165-174.

1NC -- Manufacturing Advantage

Squo solves reshoring – lower wages, Chinese transportation costs and Mexican infrastructure investment
Nowack, 1/28/14 - Associate Editor, Industrial Maintenance and Plant Operation (Tia,
“Manufacturers Are Leaving China, But Where Are They Headed?” http://www.manufacturing.net/blogs/2014/01/manufacturers-are-leaving-china-but-where-are-they-headed)

Seeing China’s manufacturing sector shrink is a trend that excites
AND
with 44 countries that allow duty-free trade, she says. 

No US-Sino war.
Rosecrance et al 10 – (Richard, Political Science Professor @ Cal and Senior Fellow @ Harvard’s Belfer Center and Former Director @ Burkle Center of IR @ UCLA, and Jia Qingguo, PhD Cornell, Professor and Associate Dean of School of International Studies @ Peking University, “Delicately Poised: Are China and the US Heading for Conflict?” Global Asia 4.4, http://www.globalasia.org/l.php?c=e251)

Will China and the US Go to War?  If one accepts the previous analysis
AND
Also, globalization has made it easier for great powers to increase

US Manufacturing competitiveness bounced back, the plan’s not sufficient, and the past 3 decades should’ve triggered your impacts.
IMFD 9/10, International Monetary Forum’s Interactive Forum, Around 10 quallified bloggers, “Hi-Fis and Low Gears: Manufacturing’s Bounce in the U.S.,” http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2013/09/hi-fis-and-low-gears-manufacturings-bounce-in-the-u-s/)//DR. H

It’s no secret that the manufacturing sector in the United States
AND
other currencies, corrected for differences in inflation) and lower energy prices,

Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: 6 | Opponent: Chamblee Carter AP | Judge: Schultz, Ben

1NC

Mexico is turning towards China for energy exports.

Garcia 8/9 (David, 8/9/13, "Mexico ramping up oil exports to China, India," http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/08/09/mexico-oil-idINDEE97809B20130809)//DR. H

Mexico is pushing to double crude oil exports to China next year and boost India-bound shipments, the next stage of a long-term plan to diversify oil sales away from an increasingly energy-independent United States.
Mexico is also open to importing light crude supplies from the United States, the country’s top oil trade executive said in an interview, a sign that the world’s No. 10 oil producer may be ready to give up decades of total crude oil self-sufficiency in order to take advantage of a growing glut of U.S. shale oil.
"We expect to market increasing volumes of our crudes" to both China and India, said Luis Felipe Luna, CEO of P.M.I. Comercio Internacional, the international oil trading arm of Mexico’s state oil monopoly Pemex.
Crude oil shipments to China, which have risen from zero in 2010 to more than 20,000 bpd so far this year, will reach a yearly average of 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) but could more than double in 2014, said Luna.

US influence directly trades off with China – every barrel of oil purchased is a barrel lost.

Fergusson 12 (Robbie, Masters in China In The International Arena from the University of Glasgow,  e-International Relations, 7/23/12, "The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine," http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/)//DR. H

American concerns over displacement
The U.S has some reason to be concerned by the economic implications of
AND
such a hungry economy without conflict over increasingly scarce resources. ~40~
The development of China and its interests in the region is therefore key. Roett
AND
cannot fail to impact upon the United States. Bajpaee moots the idea:
While not a zero-sum game, growing inter-linkages and interdependence between China and Latin America is likely to come at the cost of the United States’ relations with its neighbours, which will only undermine U.S ability to access the region’s energy resources. This will force the U.S to rely on energy resources from more remote and less stable regions, such as West Africa, the Caspian and the Middle East. ~42~

That’s key to Chinese energy security and prevents oil shocks.

Xiaoxia 5/6 – (2013, Wen, Economic Observer, Worldcrunch, "IN AMERICA’S BACKYARD: CHINA’S RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA," http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-trade-economy-investments-energy/c9s11647/)

Initially, China’s activities in Latin America were limited to the diplomatic level. By
AND
impact of illegal immigration and the drug trade on the U.S.

Chinese Energy insecurity sparks miscalculated Asian war.

Clement ’12 ~Nicholas, China and India Vie for Energy Security, May 25, http://www.2point6billion.com/news/2012/05/25/china-and-india-vie-for-energy-security-11177.html~~

The competitive relationship between China and India has become a defining feature of the strategic
AND
ongoing diplomatic engagement between China and India to avoid unnecessary or accidental escalation.

Kerry’s focusing on Middle Eastern peace talks — a shift in his focus causes Israel-Palestine war.

YL 11/7, YaLibnan, Lebanon News Service, 2013, "Kerry warns Israel of Palestinian uprising if peace talks fail," http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/11/07/kerry-warns-israel-of-palestinian-uprising-if-peace-talks-fail/)//DR. H

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Israel on Thursday that it could face a third Palestinian uprising and deepening international isolation if American-brokered peace negotiations failed.
Both Israel and the Palestinians have given grim assessments of the lack of progress in their talks, which the United States helped revive last July after a three-year hiatus.
Kerry, speaking in Jordan a day after a visit to Israel, where he appealed for limits on its settlement building in the occupied West Bank, reported the negotiations had made "significant progress" in some areas.
He said it was important to keep aiming towards a full "final status" accord tackling issues at the core of the decades-old conflict, in contrast with more modest interim deals plagued by diplomatic deadlock and years of violence.
In an interview with Israel’s Channel 2 television recorded in Jerusalem before he left for Amman, Kerry painted a bleak picture of what might lie ahead if peace is not achieved.
"I mean, does Israel want a third Intifada?" he asked, referring to the danger of a new Palestinian uprising to follow those that erupted in 1987 and 2000.
"If we do not find the way to find peace, there will be an increasing isolation of Israel, there will be an increasing campaign of delegitimization of Israel that has been taking place on an international basis."
Kerry was due to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman later on Thursday before returning to Jerusalem for more talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday.
"Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas reaffirmed their commitment to these negotiations despite the fact that at moments there are obviously tensions," Kerry said.
Friction over the talks has risen in the last week because of Israeli plans, announced in tandem with its release of 26 Palestinian prisoners, for some 3,500 new homes for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Palestinians have warned of a crisis if Israel continues to insist that they effectively agreed to turn a blind eye to the settlement expansion, in exchange for the progressive release of 104 long-serving inmates.
After meeting Abbas on Wednesday in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, Kerry said Palestinians had never condoned settlements, which they and many countries view as illegal and the United States terms illegitimate.
Palestinians fear the enclaves, built on land Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war and which they seek for a future state, will deny them a viable country. Israel cites biblical and historical links to the territory.
Kerry, whose shuttle diplomacy helped to revive the talks, has set a nine-month schedule for an agreement, despite widespread skepticism.
"I remain absolutely committed to this ability to get a final status (agreement)," Kerry said at a news conference in Amman, repeatedly warning of "prolonged, continued conflict", violence and confrontation if the talks failed.

Plan shifts Kerry’s focus.

Anderson and Grewell 2k, (Terry L., Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center, J. Bishop, former  research associate for PERC. He is a graduate of Stanford University, the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, and Northwestern Law School, "The Greening of Foreign Policy", PERC Policy Series: PS-20, December 2000, http://www.perc.org/pdf/ps20.pdf)

Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Foreign policy is a bag of
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domination of key geographic regions, supporting our allies, securing vital resources, 

Israel-Palestine war causes extinction — risk of war is high.

Beres 11/11, Louis, 2013, "The Future of Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence: Debates about Iran and Palestinian statehood will have an effect on Israel’s mode of self-defense," http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2013/11/11/iran-israel-and-the-nuclear-threat-in-the-middle-east)//DR. H

A Palestinian state would make Israel’s conventional capabilities more problematic; it could thereby heighten the chances of a regional nuclear war. Although Palestine itself would obviously be non-nuclear, its overall strategic impact could nonetheless be magnified by continuously unfolding and more-or-less unpredictable developments in Egypt, Syria, Libya, Lebanon and elsewhere in this roiling and chaotic area.
A nuclear war could arrive in Israel not only as a "bolt-from
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reprisals might be met, in the future, with enemy nuclear counterstrikes.
For now, this would become possible only if a still-nuclearizing Iran were
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the first place, could reduce Israel’s escalatory exposure to a nuclear war.
Pertinent questions arise. With its implicit ("deliberately ambiguous") nuclear capacities, why should Israel need a conventional deterrent at all? After all, even after Palestinian statehood, wouldn’t all rational enemy states desist from launching any conventional or biological attacks upon Israel out of an entirely sensible fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation?
Not necessarily. Aware that Israel would cross the nuclear threshold only in very extraordinary circumstances, these enemy states could be convinced – rightly or wrongly – that as long as their attacks remained recognizably non-nuclear, Israel would always respond in kind.
The only credible way for Israel to deter large-scale conventional attacks after the
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were undertaken, lead quickly via escalation to various forms of unconventional war.
However unforeseen, Palestine, already a "nonmember observer state" at the United Nations, would have measurably corrosive effects on power and peace in the Middle East. As, by definition, the creation of this particular Arab state would come at the territorial expense of Israel, the Jewish state’s strategic depth would promptly and irretrievably diminish. Over time, Israel’s conventional capacity to ward off enemy attacks could be commensurately reduced.
If certain enemy states were to perceive Israel’s own sense of expanding weakness and possible
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prove calamitous for the "winner," as well as the "loser."
To be sure, a meaningful risk of regional nuclear war in the Middle East exists independently of any Palestinian state. Still, this unprecedented risk would be further enlarged if a 23rd Arab state were to appear more-or-less simultaneously with Iranian nuclear weapons. Above anything else, Israel must now do what is needed to prevent such coinciding and mutually-reinforcing and existential perils.

Text: The United States federal government should establish a Security and Prosperity Partnership to offer efficiency-based concessions to Mexico in exchange for a technical negotiations framework to increase its economic engagement in energy infrastructure towards Mexico.

The counterplan is distinct and vital to policy sustainability – concessions are key to remedy lack of trust, which undermines future cooperation

Anderson and Sands, 7 – *Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Alberta, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute (Greg, Christopher, "Negotiating North America: The Security and Prosperity Partnership", Hudson Institute White Papers, Summer 2007)SJF

U.S. wealth and strength are not always decisive in negotiations with Canada
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and Mexico City rather than creative offers of assistance that advance shared goals.
This dynamic, although frustrating to some in Washington, has been a persistent feature
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the minds of our negotiating partners, and so can often go unspoken.
The postwar growth of regimes and institutions like the NAFTA and the World Trade Organization has been fueled by the desire of relatively weaker countries to curb the ability of stronger ones to resolve economic disputes by capitalizing on asymmetrical advantages. Following Kenneth Oye, we can suggest three views on cooperative behavior in North America, some of which we have seen employed by U.S. negotiators in the past.4
First, what are the ?payoffs? or incentives for cooperation? These ?
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of proposals rather than on which of the countries made a particular proposal.
Second, one of the most significant incentives for cooperation rests in extending the so
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to earn consideration on future matters that may be more important to each.

The SPP’s gradual regulations process generates political will and avoids "big bang" reforms – even if the plan’s controversal, popular bureaucratic interest sways political officials, which is key to mobilize action

Ackleson and Kastner, 5 – jointly coordinate the Frontier Program, an interdisciplinary program for the historical studies of border security, food safety, and trade policy, *assistant professor, Department of Government, New Mexico State University, assistant professor, Department of Diagnostic Medicine / Pathobiology, Kansas State University (Jason, Justin, The American Review of Canadian Studies, "THE SECURITY AND PROSPERITY PARTNERSHIP OF NORTH AMERICA", 12/6/5)SJF

The SPP seeks to repeat this 19th-century model of regulatory coordination.  Canada’s
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SPP represents "aggressive incrementalism rather than a ’big bang’ approach."38
Most officials we spoke with generally supported this approach. As another senior policy official in Canada involved with the SPP negotiations argued, some SPP initiatives could not be pushed through on a treaty level. Instead, timelines, deliverables, and granular-level detail for bureaucrats are the focus.39
Although the SPP and its related agreements are not unique as an executive-to
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agreement. These are points which we will return to in the conclusion.

Anxiety and fear of insecurity create hatred and prevent inner peace —- we must recognize that we cannot grasp the true reality of war.

Lama Yeshe, 1983. Thubten "Anxiety in the Nuclear Age," http://www.lamayeshe.com/index.php?sect=article26id=128.

What’s the good of worrying about things twenty-four hours a day, disturbing
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time with pessimistic thoughts, fear or worry. Thank you so much.

This foundational anxiety and fear makes extinction inevitable

Ikeda, 07, Daisaku. Buddhist philosopher and president of Soka Gokkai International. "Restoring the Human Connection: The First Step to Global Peace,"http://www.sgi-uk.org/resources/PeaceProposal2007.pdf.

The challenge of preventing any further proliferation of nuclear weapons is 8 just such a
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certain sense makes inevitable the birth of such demonic progeny as nuclear weapons.

The alternative is to shed the ego —- this creates a realization of our unity with all living things.

Snauwaert 09 Dale, Fall 2009. Associate Professor of Educational Theory and Social Foundations of Education; Chair of the Department of Foundations of Education, University of Toledo. "The Ethics and Ontology of Cosmopolitanism: Education for a Shared Humanity," Current Issues in Comparative Education 12.1, http://www.tc.edu/cice/Issues/12.01/PDFs/12_01_Complete_Issue.pdf.

Cosmopolitans assert the existence of a duty of moral consideration to all human beings on
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in this sense, is the primary goal of life. Gandhi writes:
What I want to achieve . . . is self-realization . . .
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of life, including one’s self. Nonviolence uplifts all. Gandhi writes:
I do not believe . . . that an individual may gain spiritually and those who surround him suffer. I believe in advaita (non-duality), I believe in the essential unity of man and, for that matter, of all that lives. Therefore, I believe that if one man gains spiritually, the whole world gains with him and, if one man falls, the whole world falls to that extent. (Naess 1974, p. 43)
In this experience, one becomes aware of the interrelated and interdependent nature of being
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the essence of morality, rests upon an awareness of our fundamental interconnection.

Energy boom now — that solves.

Johnson 12/2, Tim, "Fuel boom key to U.S. superpower status?" http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/fuel-boom-key-to-u-s-superpower-status/article_82ae5b45-d49f-58d9-9832-8cae2d29b7f5.html)//DR. H

For the past 40 years, U.S. presidents have launched distant wars, allied with autocratic sheiks and dispatched naval fleets to protect sea lanes, all for the imperative of keeping foreign oil spigots flowing.
That imperative has now subsided. Rather suddenly, the center of gravity of global energy production has swung toward the Americas as shale oil and gas fields in North Dakota and Texas hum with activity. America is moving to the fore as the world’s largest producer of petroleum and natural gas. That change will reorder the globe in ways large and small.
U.S. experts say it will prolong the United States’ position as the predominant global superpower. Arab nations that shook the world with the 1973 oil embargo almost certainly will be weakened. Russia will find its power ebb as European nations find alternate suppliers for natural gas. New energy technologies will reorder the scales of global winners and losers.

Energy independence kills heg.

Hulbert 8/19 – (2012, Matthew, Lead Analyst at European Energy Review and consultant to a number of governments, most recently as Senior Research Fellow, Netherlands Institute for International Relations, former Senior Research Fellow at ETH Zurich working on energy and political risk, MPhil in international relations from Cambridge University, "America Will Deeply Regret Its Fixation On Energy Independence," http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/08/19/why-america-will-deeply-regret-us-energy-independence/4/)

The U.S. energy independence debate is getting very tetchy of late. Seasoned energy experts are trading cheap blows, principally for sitting on opposite sides of the fence. Nobody doubts that U.S. energy output will keep growing, but whether it ever amounts to full ’independence’ is at best tenuous. More importantly, it spells total disaster for America’s role in the world. No global oil role, forget being a global hyper power. Those days will be gone.   
The allure of energy independence is a compelling story to tell. The U.
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everyone pays for a barrel of oil. Epic stuff, no doubt.
Whether you believe all these numbers doesn’t really matter. Few U.S.
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or more), it’s already creating serious geopolitical gaps across international energy markets.
That’s deeply problematic, precisely because supply side dynamics are looking more fragile than they
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a new geopolitical game thanks to energy independence beckoning just around the corner.
Independence: Passive And Active
Passive = Libya, where the U.S. made it abundantly clear to
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willing to put narrow interests above and beyond oil market stability (Iran).
No one should blame, or bemoan the U.S. for doing this
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interests to promote and extend U.S. influence across the globe.

No impact to the transition.

Ikenberry 08 – professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University (John, "The Rise of China and the Future of the West Can the Liberal System Survive?" Jan/Feb 2008, Foreign Affairs)

Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the
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, but the Western order — if managed properly — will live on.

Heg isn’t key to liberal norms.

Ikenberry 11 – (May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, G. John, PhD, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, "The Future of the Liberal World Order," http://www.foreignaffairs.com/
articles/67730/g-john-ikenberry/the-future-of-the-liberal-world-order?page=show)

For all these reasons, many observers have concluded that world politics is experiencing not
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and prosperity that it has provided since the middle of the twentieth century. 

Resiliency checks.

Zakaria, 09 - PhD in pol sci from Harvard. Editor of Newsweek, BA from Yale, PhD in pol sci, Harvard. He serves on the board of Yale University, The Council on Foreign Relations, The Trilateral Commission, and Shakespeare and Company. Named "one of the 21 most important people of the 21st Century" (Fareed, The Secrets of Stability, 12 December 2009, http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/articles.html)

One year ago, the world seemed as if it might be coming apart.
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forces for stability, each reinforcing the other and each historical in nature.

No risk of nuclear terror.

Chapman 12 (Stephen, editorial writer for Chicago Tribune, "CHAPMAN: Nuclear terrorism unlikely," May 22, http://www.oaoa.com/articles/chapman-87719-nuclear-terrorism.html)

A layperson may figure it’s only a matter of time before the unimaginable comes to
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, it appears, the worst eventuality is one that will never happen.

Pemex instability’s inevitable.

Martin and Longmire 11 – Jeremy Martin is Director of the Energy Program at the Institute of the Americas, Sylvia Longmire is a Mexico Security Expert 26 President, Longmire Consulting (Jeremy Martin and Sylvia Longmire, Journal of Energy Security, "The Perilous Intersection of Mexico’s Drug War 26 Pemex", March 22, 2011, http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2011/03/perilous-intersection-of-mexicos-drug.html)  CB

Pemex exposed and impacted
As discussed previously, oil theft from Pemex pipelines, money laundering by way of service stations, and, worst of all, provocative kidnappings of the company’s executives and those of service companies working with the state firm, are all on the rise.
Unofficial figures place thefts from the Pemex network at roughly 242 billion annually. And security experts point to this as an important source of revenue for drug cartels

Block

That outweighs — the absence of a mind-independent reality means there is zero impact to death.

Lanza 11 Robert, 1/20/2011. Vice President of Research and Scientific Development at Advanced Cell Technology and a professor at Wake Forest University School of Medicine. "Five Reasons You Won’t Die," Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-lanza/5-reasons-you-wont-die_b_810936.html.

We’ve been taught we’re just a collection of cells, and that we die when
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, having new adventures and meeting new (and rejoining old) friends. 

Only the alternative’s acceptance of the randomness of events in life solves the 1ACs impact — the AFF fails because it assumes a linear world.

Kiessel, 09, (Amanda Kiessel, Dr. Amanda Kiessel is Program Director
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Understandings of Participation and Community Vitality", pgs. 183-198)LOH

Implications for development interventions if society is seen as a dynamic. non-linear
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to adapt local conditions, learn from experience and adjust to changing circumstances. 

Ontology is a sequencing issue — the permutation fails and is an independent reason to vote NEG.

Jackson, 10 Patrick Thaddeus. Associate Professor of International Relations in the School of International Service at the American University in Washington, DC. "The Conduct of Inquiry in International Relations: Philosophy of Science and its Implications for the Study of World Politics," p 41-2.

Ontological commitments, whether philosophical or scientific, logically precede substantive claims, and serve
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would have to engage in some other kinds of knowledge-production procedures.

Education — their framework silences alternate education that causes policy failure — only internal self-transformation allows effective political action.

Zajonc 6 – Professor of physics at Amherst College
(Arthur, "Contemplative and Transformative Pedagogy," Kosmos Journal 1.1, http://www.arthurzajonc.org/uploads/Contemplative_Pedagogy20Kosmos.pdf)//BB

I approach the question of shaping worldviews as an educator and as one who,
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the work of politics; establishing peace is the work of education."6

Normative Debate is bad — their focus on governmental politics cedes agency and decimates decisionmaking skills.

Kappeler 95 – (Susanne is an associate professor at al-akhawayn university, "the will to violence: the politics of personal behavior", pg. 10-11, MT) 

`We are the war’ does not mean that the responsibility for a war is
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our values’ according to the structures and the values of war and violence.

Owen concedes that shapes policies.

Owen 02 – (David, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium, Vol 31, No 3, Sage)
*Owen concludes NEG — he really says that debates concerning ontology play a central role in IR because ontology is a crucial feature of social sciences which explain overall IR theories — Owen claims certainty in the importance of philosophical reflection and its role in shaping international commitments.

Commenting on the ’philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ’~a~
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, helped to promote the IR theory wars by motivating this philosophical turn.

Science — MRI studies prove the transformation fundamentally changes brain functions and generates an experience of unity with the world.

Ritskes et al, 03 Rients. MRI Research Centre, Aarhus University Hospital Skejby, Denmark, Biomedical Laboratory University of Southern Denmark, and Institute of Psychology University of Aarhus. "MRI Scanning During Zen Meditation: The Picture of Enlightenment," Constructivism in the Human Sciences 8.1, http://yogaterapist.net/files/hersenscan.pdf.
*
This study demonstrates, consistent with earlier findings, that a higher activity in the
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have disappeared, and a great feeling of love/unity is experienced.
 

The 1ACs constant obsession with death revokes any fear of it — turns the case.

Harder 93 Heather Anne Harder, Ph.D. in Education, 1993
(Exploring Life’s Last Frontier, http://www.innerself.com/Miscellaneous/afraid_dying.htm)

One of the most important things to know is that you can prepare now for death and you can even enjoy the preparation process. Preparing for death can enrich your living experiences. Once you can look death in the eye and feel nothing but pleasant, yet mild, anticipation, then life becomes much more enjoyable.
This epitaph taken from a headstone in Ashby, Massachusetts, describes the basic truth.
Remember, friends, as you pass by,
as you are now, so once was I.
As I am now, so you must be.
Prepare yourself to follow me.
You are well-advised to prepare yourself for death. But whether you are ready or not, when your self-determined hour arrives you will pass to the next dimension. Your hour is determined by you and your council — not the little you that operates in the conscious mind, but the greater You that operates in harmony with Divine Source. This higher self, as it is often referred to, maintains the direct connection to the Divine Source.
A little preparation can make the death experience more pleasant and thus more peaceful for you as well as those you leave behind. Here are some suggestions for this preparation.
TALKING ABOUT DEATH
Allow yourself to talk about death as a part of life. I assure you, you do not bring death closer to you by talking about it, and you may make yourself more comfortable with the concept. By avoiding the topic you shroud it in mystery and shame. It becomes one of those topics that we don’t talk about in polite society.
Upon death you will create your own death experience based on what you believe.
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process of open forum allows you to open to a variety of possibilities.
While Mom was in the hospital, she and I had an opportunity to discuss death. Although she was very confused and scared of death, she listened to my views and shared her own. She talked about what she wanted to happen (and how) if she died. At this point no one believed that she would be dead in less than two months. The conversation was one I shall always remember and treasure.
A colleague at the university, Don, and I discussed the recent death of a co-worker. We talked about death — his beliefs and mine. It was to be our last conversation, for he died just a few days later.
These conversations help to acclimate people to the transition process. Neither Don or Mom knew consciously that they were soon to die. Yet both felt the need to discuss death. It is important to be comfortable enough with the topic to discuss it when the conversation arises. Often there is an inner knowing and a need to discuss death as the hour approaches, much like the impending birth of a child is discussed.
People have taken the topic of death, and even the words associated with it, and made them naughty — something we don’t speak aloud in public. Children are shushed or quickly diverted if they bring up the topic. Our society is "death-a-phobic" and it’s time this is changed.
By becoming comfortable with the words and concepts, when the magic moment arrives and
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dead" as familiar as the word "birth" and "life".
Birth and death are both times of transition. They imply a change from one dimensional form to another. You don’t see people going to pieces because someone gave birth like you do when people (especially themselves) die. Yet birth is much more traumatic and generally unpleasant to the one experiencing it. Death is a much easier transition.
A WORKING REALITY OF DEATH
Take a minute to imagine the following scene.
You find yourself inside a large cube or box. It can be of any material you choose. You are completely enclosed in this box. There are no doors or windows, no way to get in or out. You do not know how you got in or how to get out.
As you imagine yourself in this box, what are your reactions? What thoughts or feelings do you have? Remain in this imaginary state for a minute or so to fully experience your feelings.
STOP21 DON’T READ ANY FURTHER UNTIL YOU HAVE TAKEN A MINUTE TO EXPERIENCE THIS SENSATION21
Good. Did you feel panic? How about curiosity? There are a multitude of reactions, and yours are perfectly normal regardless of what they were.
Your reactions to this exercise are similar to those you might experience as you pass into death. Now reexamine your reactions to the box, only apply these to death. How do you feel about death? Don’t judge yourself, simply examine. You now have a starting point from which to examine your current death beliefs.
For our second exercise, imagine yourself walking down a path. Create your path; notice the details. Is it wide, narrow, smooth, rough, beautiful, not-so-beautiful, straight, or winding? You decide. After you walk for awhile you come to a wall. The wall can be any form you like, but it must run across your path and stretch so far that you cannot walk around it. Create the wall now21
Now move beyond the wall. What do you see? Take a minute to experience this vision. Relax and play with the images. Don’t read on until you have experienced this21
No fudging21
This path represents your view of your life. Was your life easy or rough? Was your path well worn, or are you blazing new trails? Was your path straight or winding? If you did not like your path, know that you have full power to change it any time you choose. You can add plants, flowers — in short, create any path you choose whenever you choose.
Examine the wall. Was it high and solid or low and insubstantial? What kind was it? How did you move beyond the wall? Was it hard? What were your reactions to moving beyond the wall? What did you find on the other side?
The wall represents the separation of life and death. Beyond the wall is your symbolic subconscious view of the afterlife. Now reexamine your images. If you do not like what you experienced, simply choose a new creation and construct new images.
There are no right answers, yet, at the same time, all answers are right. Your answers represent a combination of what you have been conditioned to believe about death and your personal reality of death. If you are happy with your subconscious death reality, that’s great. If you are uncomfortable with your symbolic representation of death, then create a new one as you read on.
Death need not be scary. In fact, in many ways death can be
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to do, no tuition to pay, nor written exams to take.
As you get comfortable with the concept of death, then you can begin to let go of any fearful notions of death. Allow yourself to have a variety of death options, all pleasant. This allows you to stay open and receptive to your own unique death adventure when it occurs, which may be different from the one you have created.
If, however, the concept of death still makes you tremble with fear,
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be a pleasant first encounter, certainly much better than fear or panic.

Failed states don’t cause terrorism which is the terminal impact in their manwaring evidence

Patrick, ’11 ~Stewart, Research Fellow at the Center for Global Development, "Weak Links: Fragile States, Global Threats, and International Security," Google Books~ 

A central motivation for recent U.S. and international attention to weak and
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may pursue ambiguous policies, particularly if the state itself is internally fragmented.

====No impact to bioterror.====
Soligenex 13 (Soligenex Inc. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing products to treat inflammatory diseases and biodefense countermeasures, BioDefense and Emerging Diseases, http://www.soligenix.com/prod_def.shtml, Website last updated 2013)

Since 2001, a new sense of vulnerability to radiation, infectious diseases, toxins
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), referred to as OrbeShield™, for gastrointestinal Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS).

No chemical terrorism

Erwin and Manguson 2009 – managing editor of National Defense Magazine (Sandra and Stew, National Defense Magazine, "7 deadly myths about weapons of terror", http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/ARCHIVE/2009/JUNE/Pages/7Deadly.aspx?PF=1, WEA)

Myth ~237: Nerve Gasses Are Terrorists’ Chemical Weapons of Choice To say that
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States to carry out their plot. They used what was on hand.

Energy boom now — that solves.

Johnson 12/2
, Tim, "Fuel boom key to U.S. superpower status?" http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/fuel-boom-key-to-u-s-superpower-status/article_82ae5b45-d49f-58d9-9832-8cae2d29b7f5.html)//DR. H

For the past 40 years, U.S. presidents have launched distant wars, allied with autocratic sheiks and dispatched naval fleets to protect sea lanes, all for the imperative of keeping foreign oil spigots flowing.
That imperative has now subsided. Rather suddenly, the center of gravity of global energy production has swung toward the Americas as shale oil and gas fields in North Dakota and Texas hum with activity. America is moving to the fore as the world’s largest producer of petroleum and natural gas. That change will reorder the globe in ways large and small.
U.S. experts say it will prolong the United States’ position as the predominant global superpower. Arab nations that shook the world with the 1973 oil embargo almost certainly will be weakened. Russia will find its power ebb as European nations find alternate suppliers for natural gas. New energy technologies will reorder the scales of global winners and losers.

Heg not k2 Liberal norms.

Ikenberry 11 

a transition in the ideas and principles that underlie the global order. has already
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But the underlying foundations of the liberal international order will survive and thrive. 

Transition theory is flawed – three reasons

Nexon 09 – Daniel, Assistant professor in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. "The Balance of Power in the Balance," World Politics – Volume 61, Number 2, April 2009, Muse

Hegemonic order and power transition accounts also contain theories of power balances (and of
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(Lemke, BoP:T26P, 55–58).28

Vulnerability checks.

Boehmer ’7  (Charles, political science professor at the University of Texas, Politics 26 Policy, 35:4, "The Effects of Economic Crisis, Domestic Discord, and State Efficacy on the Decision to Initiate Interstate Conflict")

Economic Growth and Fatal MIDs The theory presented earlier predicts that lower rates of growth
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escalate to combat if doing so would compromise their ability to retain power. 

Just scary predictions and data consensus.

Barnett ’9 (Thomas P.M Barnett, senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC, contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire, 8/25/’9 – "The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis," Aprodex, Asset Protection Index, http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules—security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx)

When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze
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example, hasn’t led us to anything beyond advising and training local forces.

Reverse investment checks

WSJ 07 – (9/29, How Economy Could Survive Oil At 24100 a Barrel, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119102487310743331.html)

For all the concern, the world today is better equipped to swallow expensive oil than it was when Jimmy Carter was installing solar panels and a wood-burning stove in the White House.
The main reason has to do with what some call the Wal-Mart effect. For every extra dollar taken from drivers’ pockets at the pump in the form of higher prices in recent years, low-cost exporters from China and elsewhere have put roughly 241.50 back in the form of cheaper retail goods. Even at today’s near-record prices, U.S. households today spend less than 4 of their disposable income at the pump, vs. over 6 in 1980.
Current prices are also a reflection of a strong economy, not an oil embargo or war in the Middle East. Since a market-share war between Saudi Arabia and Venezuela flooded the market with oil and drove prices to below 2411 a barrel in 1998, oil prices have risen nearly eight-fold. During that run, the global economy grew roughly 5 each year.
Strong growth in places like China helps take some of the edge off the oil-price blow for U.S. and European companies such as Detroit’s Big Three auto makers. Many emerging markets are hitting a "takeoff" stage, where per-capita income reaches a level that sparks serious auto demand, says Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford Motor Co.’s chief economist. Growth in emerging markets is a "structural development" that is "less sensitive to oil-price changes," she says.
"There’s a more relaxed attitude now," said Daniel Yergin, a noted oil historian and chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. At a recent event promoting Alan Greenspan’s new memoir, Mr. Yergin asked the former Fed chief on stage if 2480 oil was a concern. "He basically shrugged and said, ’Not so far,’" Mr. Yergin recalls.
Economists see global growth slowing but still chugging along at a relatively healthy 3
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energy economist Philip Verleger Jr. "And that investment is happening."

Tournament: Tournament of Champions | Round: Octas | Opponent: University Prep DK | Judge: Brown, Scott Garcia-Lugo, Juan Quinn, Colin
1NC -- Topicality

Our interpretation of debate is that the affirmative must normatively advocate that the United States federal government increase its economic engagement with Mexico, Venezuela, and/or Cuba.

“USFG should” means the debate is solely about the outcome of a policy established by governmental means
Ericson, 03 (Jon M., Dean Emeritus of the College of Liberal Arts – California Polytechnic U., et al., The Debater’s Guide, Third Edition, p. 4)

The Proposition of Policy: Urging Future Action In policy propositions, each topic contains certain key
AND
compelling reasons for an audience to perform the future action that you propose. 

The most important value of policy debate is its ability to cultivate decisionmaking skills and delibeartive democracy – the impact is extinction
Lundberg 10 – (2010, Christian, Professor of Communications, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, former debate coach, “Tradition of Debate in North Carolina” in Navigating Opportunity: Policy Debate in the 21st Century, Allan D. Louden, p. 311)

The second major problem with the critique that identifies a naivety in articulating debate and democracy
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dealing with the existential challenges to democracy in an increasingly complex world. 

A concrete, normative proposal allows rigorous and empirical contestation – lack of stable, agreed upon ground also wrecks predictability and makes research based debate impossible – also destroys reciprocity by skewing strategic foresight in favor of the aff – decreases clash and turns debates into monologues rather than dialogues
Steinberg and Freeley 08 – (2008, Austin, Boston based attorney who focuses on criminal, personal injury and civil rights law, and David, Lecturer of Communication Studies, University of Miami, “Argumentation and Debate: Critical Thinking for Reasoned Decision Making,” p. 45)

Debate is a means of settling differences, so there must be a difference of opinion
AND
the comparative effectiveness of writing or physical force for a specific purpose.

5 smart people in a room does not guarantee a productive debate – adherence to pre-defined rules and procedures is empirically key to the success of critical politicals
Eckersley 04 (Robyn, Professor and Head of Political Science in the School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia, “The Green State: Rethinking Democracy and Sovereignty”, 5.4)

What seems to emerge from this empirical turn in deliberative democ-racy is that what I have
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rather than as divisions that public reason must somehow  transcend.

Loss of dialogue turns case – results in an essentialized and degraded relation toward otherness and precludes true engagement with their arguments.
Nealon 97 – (1997, Jeffrey, Assistant Professor of English at Penn State University, “The Ethics of Dialogue: Bakhtin and Levinas,” College English, Vol. 59, No. 2 (Feb., 1997), pp. 129-148, jstor)

In response to this difficult problem, postmodern thinkers have increasingly
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the subject owes to the other in the dialogue of "sociality."

Policy simulation encourages intellectual flexibility and encourage the critical questioning of government actions - breaks down preexisting ideological dogmatism about the role of the USFG.
Esberg and Sagan 12 – (2/17/12, Jane, special assistant to the director at the Center on International Cooperation, New York University, and Scott, professor of political science and director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, “Negotiating Nonproliferation: Scholarship, Pedagogy, and Nuclear Weapons Policy,” The Nonproliferation Review, 19:1, 95-108, taylor and francis)

These government or quasi-government think tank simulations often provide
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students how to contextualize and act on information.14

1NC -- Ivory Kritik

Effective dissent is defined by rhetorical critique within an established and accepted framework of understanding – whether that framework is unjust or unequal is irrelevant – the role of the dissenter is that of a RHETORICAL TRICKSTER who deploys similarity as a communicative heuristic in order to ensure that critique is heard, accepted, and acted upon – specifically, adopting and redeploying the rhetoric of humanism is an essential rhetorical move
Ivie 07 – (Robert, Professor of American Studies and Communication and Culture Member of the Interdepartmental Graduate Committee on Mythology Studies, Adjunct Faculty Member in the Cultural Studies Program Indiana University, “Dissent from War,” p. 106-7)

This distinction between presidential strategy and citizen tactics is much like the general differentiation
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of violence or a social web of constructive contestation.

The impact is mass state sanctioned murder and the violence repression of dissent – consubstantiality MUST be the defining characteristic of tactically productive debate – common ground is necessary to transform symbolic violence into productive rhetorical persuasion.
Ivie 05 – (2005, Robert, Professor Emeritus, Communication and Culture, University of Indiana, “Democratic Dissent and the Trick of Rhetorical Critique,” Cultural Studies ? Critical Methodologies, Volume 5 Number 3, 2005 276-293, sage)

Democracy’s formidable challenge may be most clearly indicated on the occasion of war.
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multilateral, delimited, and mutable rather than fixed orders of unilateral domination.6 

The alternative is to embrace both an ethos and rhetoric of revolutionary humanism.  This is not self-subordination, but rather a tactical inversion that seizes the methods of hegemonic power and reappropriates them for the project of emancipatory liberation.  Humanism has empirically been the fuel for effective resistance to anti-blackness – rejection feeds postmodern cynicism and liberal fetishization of difference that results in the reification of modern neo-colonialism.
Pithouse 01 – (Richard, professor of politics at Rhodes University in Grahamstown, South Africa, “FRANTZ FANON AND THE PERSISTENCE OF HUMANISM,” from Protest and Engagement: Philosophy After Apartheid at an Historically Black South African University
http://www.crvp.org/book/Series02/II-7/chapter_i.htm)

Fanon tells his readers, on the first page of his first book, Black Skin White Masks
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effectively than any of the ideas that have come to replace it.

1NC -- Case

Civil society is not beyond repair – political liberalism can and should be reclaimed for the purpose of breaking down anti-black racism.
Shelby 7 – Tommie Shelby, Professor of African and African American Studies and of Philosophy at Harvard, 2007, We Who Are Dark: The Philosophical Foundations of Black Solidarity

For better or worse, black political solidarity has come to be associated with black nationalism
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mistakenly viewed as making a sharp break with liberal political philosophy.

Refuse their characterization of blackness as ontological death – blackness exceeds its own objectification – their reading of civil society is is totalizing and historically incorrect.
Brar 12 – (2012, Dhanveer Singh, PhD candidate, commnications,“Blackness, radicalism, sound: Black Consciousness and Black Popular Music in the U.S.A (1955-1971),” A thesis submitted for the degree of PhD in Media and Communications 2012, Goldsmiths College, University of London, http://eprints.gold.ac.uk/7806/1/MED_thesis_Brar_2012.pdf)

Paying attention to phonic materiality allowed the enquiry into the blackness
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it remains vital for me to continue to be a student of Black studies. s

1NR -- Survival Kritik

Focus on survival strategies and self-elaboration does not serve as a path to broader social change --- it instead creates authoritarian enclave politics that make intersubjective political struggle impossible.
Ella MYERS Poli Sci and Gender Studies @ Utah ’13 Worldly Ethics: Democratic Politics and Care for the World p. 46-49

The therapeutic ethics advanced by Foucault and Connolly
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ethics reassures with the idea that one can be an engaged citizen all by oneself.

Their bleak picture of access to institutions is disempowering. We’re always starting from imperfection.  Their false-choice between ethics and institutions will make it so we don’t get either one.
Ella MYERS Poli Sci and Gender Studies @ Utah ’13 Worldly Ethics: Democratic Politics and Care for the World p. 148-151

Finally, another critical connection concerns not the linkages between
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supports that already exist, so that we might begin where we are.

The sequencing of personal before collective must be reversed --- sequencing the self first undermines larger democratic politics. Anti-racist praxis should start with public naming, not proper performance of the self.  
Ella MYERS Poli Sci and Gender Studies @ Utah ’13 Worldly Ethics: Democratic Politics and Care for the World p. 44-45

Unfortunately, Connolly is inconsistent in this regard, for he also
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may have value, but it is not an ethics fit for democracy.