Tournament: New Trier Township | Round: 1 | Opponent: Dexter MS | Judge: Forgot
Cuban Embargo 1ac
Plan: The United States federal government should substantially reduce its sanctions on Cuba.
Contention 1 is Solvency
Lifting the embargo would substantially improve relations throughout the world and spur the economy.
Trani 6/23 --- permanent member Council on Foreign Relations Eugene P. Trani, President and University Distinguished Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, Graduate of the University of Notre Dame (“Trani: End the embargo on Cuba”, Times Dispatch, June 23, 2013, http://www.timesdispatch.com/opinion/their-opinion/columnists-blogs/guest-columnists/end-the-embargo-on-cuba/article_ba3e522f-8861-5f3c-bee9-000dffff8ce7.html, accessed June 28, 2013)
The Soviet support of Cuba bring about this change.
Advantage 1 is OFAC:
(--) OFAC is uniquely key to solve in Iranian Proliferation
Maberry and Riemer 6/6 --- (J. Scott Maberry has a JD from Georgetown University Law Center, Matthew L. Riemer has a JD from the University of Chicago, “OFAC continues to expand the scope of Iranian sanctions”, June 6, 2013, Lexology, http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=2db0d7ac-1965-4265-b1e5-5c43798bbca2)
Oil, Petrochemical, and Aircraft Industries military and nuclear programs.
(--) Despite previous sanction success on Iran, more is needed
Maloney 11 --- (Suzanne Maloney studies Iran, the political economy of the Persian Gulf and Middle East energy policy for the Brookings Institute and is a former U.S. State Department policy advisor, “The Self-Limiting Success of Iran Sanctions”, November 11, 2011, Brookings Institute, http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2011/11/iran-sanctions-maloney-takeyh)
¶ The consequences of the sharpened sanctions the regime’s assessment of risks and rewards.
(--) Plan boosts OFAC sanctions on Iran – reallocates resources used for embargo
Johnson, Spector and Lilac 10 - Andy Johnson, Director, National Security Program, Kyle Spector, Policy Advisor, National Security Program, Kristina Lilac, National Security Program, Senior Fellows of The Third Way Institute, (“End the Embargo of Cuba”, Article for The Third Way Institute, 9/16/10, http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf, Accessed 7/02/13, AW)
Keeping the embargo in by rogue states and terrorist networks
(--) That revamps sanctions on Iran – previous lack of focus and disorganization
Maberry and Jensen 13 – J. Scott Maberry, J.D, Georgetown University Law Center, International Trade partner in the Government Contracts, Investigations and International Trade Practice Group, Mark L. Jensen, J.D, Harvard Law School, International Trade associate in the Government Contracts, Investigations and International Trade Practice Group, (“OFAC gets hot, bothered on Iran and Cuba: how economic sanctions work today”, Report for Sheppard Mullin Richter and Hampton LLP, 5/7/13, http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8657e6ce-454a-4eaf-ba8b-d225ea59ecdd, Accessed 7/9/13, AW)
People who practice U.S. economic sanctions it seems likely that additional sanctions will be applied.
(--) Iran prolif leads to Middle East arms race and ensures nuclear war
Allison 6 --- (Graham Tillett Allison Jr. is an American political scientist and professor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, Fall 2006, “The Will to Prevent,” Harvard International Law Review, lexis nexis)
Meanwhile, Iran is testing the line in the Middle East destruction that can threaten our existence.”
(--) Perception of Iranian nuclear acquisition triggers
Henry Sokolsky, executive director – nonproliferation policy education center, 10/1/2003, Policy Review, p. lexis
If nothing is done to shore up U.S. and allied security relations be spring-loaded to go nuclear.
(--) Nuclear war increases the risk of other existential threats
ZELINSKY 2011 (Joshua, Yale graduate, comment on 03 September 2011 to “Impact of India-Pakistan nuclear war on x-risk?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/7fg/impact_of_indiapakistan_nuclear_war_on_xrisk/)
The question is not the right question to ask. is a lot scarier to most people than car crashes.
Advantage 2 is SOI
Chinese looking to expand sphere of influence in Latin America
The Economist 6/6—(H.T., “Why has China snubbed Cuba and Venezuela?” 6/6/13, The Economist, http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economist-explains-3)//AY
XI JINPING'S first visit to Latin America Chávez to court Beijing on their behalf, will have to work hard to stay relevant.
Latin America is a new global arena for power
BBC 6/4—(“China commentary says Latin America arena for power struggle” June 4, 2013, lexisnexis)AY
Text of commentary by Sun Hongbo headlined, the US and Latin America, have to find out feasible areas of cooperation.
The Cuban Embargo weakens the US image - thereby gutting US leadership and credibility internationally
Wickham 10—(DeWayne, reporter for USA Today, “Change of guard is a good time to end Cuba embargo” 10/12/10, lexisnexis)AY
More than a diplomatic annoyance, embargo will slow it down -- and whittle away at America's position on the world stage.
Lifting the Embargo solves US soft power in Latin America
CSM 8—(Gerz-Escandon, Jennifer “End the US-Cuba embargo: It's a win-win” 10/9/08, lexisnexis)AY
Bringing an end to the decades-old scholar and former professor of political science based in Atlanta
Lifting the embargo would solve—Latin American countries prefer US to China
Erikson and Chen 7—Senior Associate for U.S. policy at the Inter-American Dialogue, joint-degree candidate at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy ¶ and Georgetown University Law Center (Daniel P and Janice, “China, Taiwan, and the ¶ Battle for Latin America “
2007 http://ww.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/Erikson-Chen-120(2).pdf)//AY
China’s economic engagement with democratic allies in the Western Hemisphere.
US must lead—unchecked Chinese growth will lead to a US provoked conflict
Shor 10—(Fran, Professor in the Department of Interdisciplinary Studies at Wayne State University in Detroit “Declining U.S. Hegemony + Rising Chinese Power: A Formula for Conflict?” State of Nature http://www.stateofnature.org/?p=4541#sthash.GMaXHqvz.dpuf)//AY
Beyond the internal and external environmental dire circumstances of imperial overstretch.
US-Sino war would cause nuclear war.
Johnson, 2001 (Chalmers, President of Japan Policy Research Institute, The Nation, 5/14, l/n)
China is another matter. No sane figure in the US forces on China's borders have virtually no deterrent effect.
That war would cause extinction
Wittner 11—( Professor of History emeritus, SUNY Albany “ Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?” 11/30/11
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-wittner/nuclear-war-china_b_1116556.html)//AY
At the least, though, don't nuclear weapons deter a nuclear and that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.
Advantage 3 is ICT
The democracy Act of 1992 and 2009 act as non-uniques to your DA’s but is currently insufficient to solve for the ICT infrastructure currently needed
Piccone et all 10
(Ted Piccone, senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy at Brookings Bridging Cuba’s Communication Divide: How U.S. Policy Can Help Published July 2010 http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/1520cuba20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf /Accessed 7/17/13 CSmith)
There is an alternative approach to resolving individual citizens’ dependency on the state.
Cuba is unsustainable in the status quo – inefficient economy, large fiscal deficit, and peso-dollar exchange deterioration
Leogrande and Thomas 2
(William M. LeoGrande is Professor of Government in the School of Public Affairs at American University. Julie M. Thomas is finishing her PhD dissertation at the School of Public Affairs, American University. Cuba's Quest for Economic Independence Published May 2002 http://www.jstor.org/stable/3875792 . Accessed 7/18/13 CSmith)
Having finally escaped dependency on sugar been created by Cuba's monetary dualism. Thus the status quo seems untenable in the long run
Cuban instability collapse causes Latin American instability and terror attacks
Gorrell, Lieutenant Colonel, 2005
(Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” March 18, Online: http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, mitigate these potential future problems.
These attacks will deploy biological weapons against the US.
Bryan, director of the North-South Center’s Caribbean Program, 2001
(Anthony, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation,” October 21, Online:
http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and20_homeland_20security.html)
Terrorist acts can take manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
Biological weapon use results in extinction.
Steinbruner, Senior fellow at Brookings, 1997
(John, “Biological weapons: a plague upon all houses,” Foreign Policy, Winter, Proquest)
Although human pathogens a of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.