Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: Octas | Opponent: St Francis RS | Judge: Joe Skoog, Matea Ivanovic, Ryan Hand
CP
CP: The United States federal government should remove economic sanctions against Cuba except for those pertaining to cruise ship related industries.
Pollution is down in Havana Bay, and only a handful of cruise ships dock per year.
Jara, writer for News Daily, 13
Fransisco, 5/9/13, News Daily, “Havana Bay Slowly Reclaims Historic Splendor”, http://www.newsdaily.com/environment/3dd3a5fa85865cd1d45db819a88df5aa/havana-bay-slowly-reclaims-historic-splendor, NCM

Pelicans and their prey are back in Havana Bay in a sign that efforts to clean up the historic and once splendid port of the Cuban capital are paying off. "They disappeared long ago but because of the cleanup the fish have returned -- and therefore so have the pelicans," said fisherman Eduardo Lozano who spends every day out on the sheltered expanse of water. The presence of the big-beaked creatures gives credence to local expert claims that pollution in the bay -- once a base for Spanish galleons that returned to Europe laden with Latin American treasure -- has been reduced by 50 to 60 percent over the past few years. The cleanup program was launched back in 1998, with a working group known as GTE-BH tracing the contamination to a hundred sources, according to the official Cuban newspaper Trabajadores. Last year alone, according to a recent article, dumping of pollutants was scaled back by 30 percent compared to 2011.
"Today, crossing the bay by ferry to go from the old town to the Regla neighborhood (to the south of the bay) is a pleasure when just a few years ago the stench was unbearable," Trabajadores said. Three waterways that make their way through populated parts of southern Havana -- and are polluted by various industries -- flow into the bay, which spans 5.2 square kilometers and features fortresses called El Morro and La Cabana. And then there's the Nico Lopez refinery that is due to be shuttered after billowing black smoke into the Havana sky for about 60 years. It's all part of a plan to transfer all maritime traffic to Mariel, 50 kilometers (31 miles) to the west of Havana, where a vast port is being built, financed by Brazilian capital and realized in large part by construction giant Odebrecht at an investment of about a billion dollars.
The goal is to clear Havana's port of eyesore tankers and container ships to make space for cruise ships and pleasure boats instead, in an attempt to create a tourist destination that takes advantage of the historical setting. For that reason, restoration work has started on quays in the old town under the leadership of the Office of the Historian. Old customs buildings are also being renovated while tourism and pedestrian zones are being set up. It remains to be seen if the effort will have the desired effect. In light of the decades-old US embargo against the Communist-run island, cruise ships that do dock in Havana each year can be counted on one hand, and the few pleasure boats that make it are relegated to a decrepit marina to the west of the capital. Americans technically are allowed to visit Cuba, but they are required to seek special US government permission to go to the Caribbean island nation.
Both the Cuban and American private sectors are making plans for major tourism in the status quo- they’re just waiting for the embargo to be lifted so they can capitalize on the opportunity
ETN, news organization, 09
ETN: Global Travel Industry News, 9/18/09, “Is Cuba Ready for US Tourists?”, http://www.eturbonews.com/11774/cuba-ready-us-tourists, NCM

At first glance, Cuba's business potential looks as pretty as its postcards: A nearly five-decades-long embargo has made the island just 90 miles from Florida's coast hungry for nearly every good and service a U.S. company might provide. But the flip side tells a different story about the most populous country in the Caribbean: that of a cash-strapped state with crumbling infrastructure and an economy in the stranglehold of an authoritarian government. Those conflicting realities, however, are not stopping entrepreneurs from planning for the day when the embargo is lifted -- or from taking advantage of business opportunities already permissible under the embargo. Tourism and telecom firms have been energized by recent regulations promising greater access; port operators and oil drillers are gearing up for a rush; and lawyers and consultants are lining up for a piece of the action. "Every sector is going to be important," said Richard Waltzer, the chairman of the Havana Group, a consulting firm that helps U.S. businesses lay the groundwork for the day sanctions are lifted. "This is an island that really hasn't developed." But in the short term, Waltzer said, the "building of hotels and tourism infrastructure is going to be the new economy for Cuba." The Tourism Draw
With its broad beaches, stunning colonial architecture and world-class artists, it's not hard to imagine the island as a tourist mecca. For Cuba, more foreign visitors would provide access to the quick cash that it needs to jump-start the economy. The island received 2.3 million visitors in 2008, according to the Caribbean Tourism Organization. If the U.S. government dropped its travel restrictions entirely, rather than just for Cuban Americans -- and Cuba proved as big a draw for American tourists as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, or Cancun, Mexico -- the island could expect more than one million additional visitors a year. Mere curiosity -- seeing '58 Oldsmobiles and giant Che portraits on buildings -- could lure many, said Damian Fernandez, a longtime Cuban policy expert and provost of Purchase College State University of New York.
"Post-embargo, the biggest, fastest impact would be in tourism," he said. But it's unclear if Cuba could handle the influx. The island has about 50,000 hotel rooms, about as many as Miami-Dade County, according to a report released by the Cuba Committee of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce. And while it is making improvements, its phone system, electricity and water-supply infrastructure are struggling. Cuba's Old World feel is part of its charm, but many visitors are also looking for modern amenities, said Mark Watson, 30, a tourist from Canada who recently visited the island. Compared with other Caribbean tourist destinations, he found the island's food mediocre, prices expensive and his hotel, the Tryp Habana Libre, where rooms start at $168 a night, outdated and shabby. "I'm not sorry I came here," he said. "But I will never be back." The infrastructure woes may not only scare away visitors but stunt the growth of other tourism enterprises, said Tim Gallagher, vice president for public relations at Carnival Cruise Lines. "You can take people to the islands, but you have to have a way to transport them once they are there and have tours for them," he said from the company's Miami offices. "Whenever Cuba does finally open up, it will take a while to put all that into place." Gallagher said Carnival will develop a Cuba strategy if and when visiting the island is viable. "It has been so many years that people have been saying that Cuba will open up, but no one really knows when that will happen," he said. "At the time they do, then we are certainly interested." The infrastructure challenge is not easily overcome. "It's a chicken-and-egg problem," said Jorge Pinon, a longtime Cuba analyst. "Cuba needs the infrastructure to attract investors, but it can't pay for the infrastructure until it gets the investors." Retirement Haven?
One way to skirt the issue is to look at businesses that might be created in self-sufficient compounds, said Leo Guzman, founder of the Guzman and Co. investment bank and a former board member of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp.
Cuba's mild weather, proximity to the United States and surplus of trained doctors and nurses could make it ideal for Cuban-American retirees and those requiring long-term medical care, he said. Such enclaves might also be more likely to win approval from the Cuban government, he said. Cuban authorities would "want the Cuban Americans in a community as opposed to interspersed in the community, to lower social friction," he said. "And from a political perspective, retirees are the kind of people that the Cuban government would want, i.e. too old to cause problems."
Tourism directly leads to Cuban ecosystem collapse
Barclay, writer for TreeHugger, 8
Eliza, 1/10/8, TreeHugger, “Cuba’s Environment Threatened As Embargo’s End Looms”, http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/cubas-environment-threatened-as-embargos-end-looms.html, NCM

The New York Times had a piece recently on what the end of the United States' economic embargo against Cuba could mean for the Caribbean nation's impressive successes in environmental protection. In a report last year, the World Wildlife Fund said that Cuba's beaches, mangroves, reefs, seagrass beds and other habitats are most at risk by "the prospect of sudden and massive growth in mass tourism when the U.S. embargo lifts." Cuba has done "what we should have done — identify your hot spots of biodiversity and set them aside," Oliver Houck, a professor of environmental law at Tulane University Law School, told the Times. Cuba has the most biologically diverse populations of freshwater fish in the region. Its relatively large underwater coastal shelves are crucial for numerous marine species, including some whose larvae can be carried by currents into waters of the United States, The story notes that what may prove to be decisive once the embargo is removed is Cuba's lacks of a grassroots environmental movement. In other words, so far, the country has few environmental groups or activists to stand up to what will likely be powerful interests in tourism development. 

The Caribbean is a biodiversity hotspot
CEPF ‘10
(quoting Mittermeier -- the same author that establishes the “hotspot” thesis and writes our impact ev. , Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. CEPF is the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund – “Ecosystem Profile: THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOT” – Prepared by: BirdLife International¶ in collaboration with:¶ Durrell Wildlife Conservation¶ Trust / Bath University¶ The New York Botanical Garden¶ and with the technical support of:¶ Conservation International-Center¶ for Applied Biodiversity Science; assistance for this report was offered by 100 international and non-profit organizations. Jan 15th – http://www.cepf.net/Documents/Final_Caribbean_EP.pdf)

The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is one of the  world’s greatest centers of biodiversity and¶ endemism, yet its biodiversity and the natural¶ services it provides are highly threatened. Although¶ the islands have protected areas systems, most ar¶ e inadequately managed and important areas lack¶ protection. This strategy will ensure that CEPF¶ funds are employed in the most effective manner¶ and generate significant conservation results that¶ not only complement the actions of other¶ stakeholders but also enable significant expansion¶ of strategic conservation for the benefit of all.¶ Everyone depends on Earth’s ecosystems and their life-sustaining benefits, such as clean air,¶ fresh water and healthy soils. Founded in 2000,¶ the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF)¶ has become a global leader in en¶ abling civil society to participate in and benefit from conserving¶ some of the world’s most critical ecosystems. C¶ EPF is a joint initiative of l'Agence Française de¶ Développement, Conservation International, the Gl¶ obal Environment Facility, the Government of¶ Japan, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the World Bank. As one of the¶ founding partners, Conservation International ad¶ ministers the global program through a CEPF¶ Secretariat.¶ CEPF provides grants for nongovern¶ mental and other private organizations to help protect¶ biodiversity hotspots, Earth’s most biologically¶ rich and threatened areas. The convergence of¶ critical areas for conservation with millions¶ of people who are impoverished and highly¶ dependent on healthy ecosystems is more ev¶ ident in the hotspots than anywhere else.¶ CEPF is unique among funding mechanisms in th¶ at it focuses on biological areas rather than¶ political boundaries and examines conservation th¶ reats on a landscape-scale basis. A fundamental¶ purpose of CEPF is to ensure that civil society is¶ engaged in efforts to conserve biodiversity in¶ the hotspots, and to this end, CEPF provides ci¶ vil society with an agile and flexible funding¶ mechanism complementing funding currently¶ available to government agencies.¶ CEPF promotes working alliances among commun¶ ity groups, nongovernmental organizations¶ (NGOs), government, academic institutions and¶ the private sector, combining unique capacities¶ and eliminating duplication of efforts for a¶ comprehensive approach to conservation. CEPF¶ targets trans-boundary cooperation for areas rich of¶ biological value that straddle national borders¶ or in areas where a regional approach may be more effective than a national approach.¶ A recent, updated analysis reveals the existence of¶ 34 biodiversity hotspots, each holding at least¶ 1,500 endemic plant species, and having lost at¶ least 70 percent of its original habitat extent¶ (Mittermeier¶ et al¶ . 2005). The Caribbean islands qualify  as one of these global biodiversity¶ hotspots by virtue of their high endemicity and high degree of threat.¶ The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is exceptionally important for global biodiversity conservation.¶ The hotspot includes important ecosystems, fro¶ m montane cloud forests to coral reefs, and¶ supports populations of unique species amounting to at least 2 percent of the world’s total¶ species. 

Biodiversity in specific hotspots solves extinction -- key to ag, medicine, and ecosystems
Mittermeier ‘11
(et al, Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He has conducted fieldwork for over 30 years on three continents and in more than 20 countries in mainly tropical locations. He is the President of Conservation International and he is considered an expert on biological diversity. Mittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species. From Chapter One of the book Biodiversity Hotspots – F.E. Zachos and J.C. Habel (eds.), DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011. This evidence also internally references Norman Myers, a very famous British environmentalist specialising in biodiversity. available at: http://www.academia.edu/1536096/Global_biodiversity_conservation_the_critical_role_of_hotspots)

Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is¶ irreversible. Human activities have elevated the rate of species extinctions to a¶ thousand or more times the natural background rate (Pimm et al. 1995). What are the¶ consequences of this loss? Most obvious among them may be the lost opportunity¶ for future resource use. Scientists have discovered a mere fraction of Earth’s species¶ (perhaps fewer than 10, or even 1) and understood the biology of even fewer¶ (Novotny et al. 2002). As species vanish, so too does the health security of every¶ human. Earth’s species are a vast genetic storehouse that may harbor a cure for¶ cancer, malaria, or the next new pathogen – cures waiting to be discovered.¶ Compounds initially derived from wild species account for more than half of all¶ commercial medicines – even more in developing nations (Chivian and Bernstein¶ 2008). Natural forms, processes, and ecosystems provide blueprints and inspiration¶ for a growing array of new materials, energy sources, hi-tech devices, and¶ other innovations (Benyus 2009). The current loss of species has been compared¶ to burning down the world’s libraries without knowing the content of 90 or¶ more of the books. With loss of species, we lose the ultimate source of our crops¶ and the genes we use to improve agricultural resilience, the inspiration for¶ manufactured products, and the basis of the structure and function of the ecosystems¶ that support humans and all life on Earth (McNeely et al. 2009). Above and beyond¶ material welfare and livelihoods, biodiversity contributes to security, resiliency,¶ and freedom of choices and actions (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).¶ Less tangible, but no less important, are the cultural, spiritual, and moral costs¶ inflicted by species extinctions. All societies value species for their own sake,¶ and wild plants and animals are integral to the fabric of all the world’s cultures¶ (Wilson 1984). The road to extinction is made even more perilous to people by the loss of the broader ecosystems that underpin our livelihoods, communities, and economies(McNeely et al.2009). The loss of coastal wetlands and mangrove forests, for example, greatly exacerbates both human mortality and economic damage from tropical cyclones (Costanza et al.2008; Das and Vincent2009), while disease outbreaks such as the 2003 emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in East Asia have been directly connected to trade in wildlife for human consumption(Guan et al.2003). Other consequences of biodiversity loss, more subtle but equally damaging, include the deterioration of Earth’s natural capital. Loss of biodiversity on land in the past decade alone is estimated to be costing the global economy $500 billion annually (TEEB2009). Reduced diversity may also reduce resilience of ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them. For example, more diverse coral reef communities have been found to suffer less from the diseases that plague degraded reefs elsewhere (Raymundo et al.2009). As Earth’s climate changes, the roles of species and ecosystems will only increase in their importance to humanity (Turner et al.2009).¶ In many respects, conservation is local. People generally care more about the biodiversity in the place in which they live. They also depend upon these ecosystems the most – and, broadly speaking, it is these areas over which they have the most control. Furthermore, we believe that all biodiversity is important and that every nation, every region, and every community should do everything possible to conserve their living resources. So, what is the importance of setting global priorities? Extinction is a global phenomenon, with impacts far beyond nearby administrative borders. More practically, biodiversity, the threats to it, and the ability of countries to pay for its conservation vary around the world. The vast majority of the global conservation budget – perhaps 90 – originates in and is spent in economically wealthy countries (James et al.1999). It is thus critical that those globally ?exible funds available – in the hundreds of millions annually – be guided by systematic priorities if we are to move deliberately toward a global goal of reducing biodiversity loss.¶ The establishment of priorities for biodiversity conservation is complex, but can be framed as a single question. Given the choice, where should action toward reducing the loss of biodiversity be implemented ?rst? The ?eld of conservation planning addresses this question and revolves around a framework of vulnerability and irreplaceability (Margules and Pressey2000). Vulnerability measures the risk to the species present in a region – if the species and ecosystems that are highly threatened are not protected now, we will not get another chance in the future. Irreplaceability measures the extent to which spatial substitutes exist for securing biodiversity. The number of species alone is an inadequate indication of conserva-tion priority because several areas can share the same species. In contrast, areas with high levels of endemism are irreplaceable. We must conserve these places because the unique species they contain cannot be saved elsewhere. Put another way, biodiversity is not evenly distributed on our planet. It is heavily concentrated in certain areas, these areas have exceptionally high concentrations of endemic species found nowhere else, and many (but not all) of these areas are the areas at greatest risk of disappearing because of heavy human impact.¶ Myers’ seminal paper (Myers1988) was the ?rst application of the principles of irreplaceability and vulnerability to guide conservation planning on a global scale. Myers described ten tropical forest “hotspots” on the basis of extraordinary plant endemism and high levels of habitat loss, albeit without quantitative criteria for the designation of “hotspot” status. A subsequent analysis added eight additional hotspots, including four from Mediterranean-type ecosystems (Myers 1990).After adopting hotspots as an institutional blueprint in 1989, Conservation Interna-tional worked with Myers in a ?rst systematic update of the hotspots. It introduced two strict quantitative criteria: to qualify as a hotspot, a region had to contain at least 1,500 vascular plants as endemics (¶ ¶ 0.5 of the world’s total), and it had to have 30 or less of its original vegetation (extent of historical habitat cover)remaining. These efforts culminated in an extensive global review (Mittermeier et al.1999) and scienti?c publication (Myers et al.2000) that introduced seven new hotspots on the basis of both the better-de?ned criteria and new data. A second systematic update (Mittermeier et al.2004) did not change the criteria, but revisited the set of hotspots based on new data on the distribution of species and threats, as well as genuine changes in the threat status of these regions. That update rede?ned several hotspots, such as the Eastern Afromontane region, and added several others that were suspected hotspots but for which suf?cient data either did not exist or were not accessible to conservation scientists outside of those regions. Sadly, it uncovered another region – the East Melanesian Islands – which rapid habitat destruction had in a short period of time transformed from a biodiverse region that failed to meet the “less than 30 of original vegetation remaining” criterion to a genuine hotspot.
DA
China’s economic reform push is underway and succeeding, the only question is leveraging political capital to overcome opposition

Kroeber 11/17
(Arthur R Kroeber is Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings-Tsinghua Center, “Xi Jinping's Ambitious Agenda for Economic Reform in China”, Opinion, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/11/17-xi-jinping-economic-agenda-kroeber)

The much anticipated Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress closed its four-day session last Tuesday. A relatively bland initial communiqué was followed today by a detailed decision document spelling out major initiatives including a relaxation of the one-child policy, the elimination of the repressive “re-education through labor” camps, and a host of reforms to the taxation and state-owned enterprise systems. Today’s blizzard of specific reform pledges allays earlier concerns that the new government led by party chief Xi Jinping and premier Li Keqiang would fail to set major policy goals. But is this enough to answer the three biggest questions analysts have had since Xi and Li ascended a year ago?¶ Those questions are, first, do Xi and his six colleagues on the Politburo standing committee have an accurate diagnosis of China’s structural economic and social ailments? Second, do they have sensible plans for addressing these problems? And third, do they have the political muscle to push reforms past entrenched resistance by big state owned enterprises (SOEs), tycoons, local government officials and other interest groups whose comfortable positions would be threatened by change? Until today, the consensus answers to the first two questions were “we’re not really sure,” and to the third, “quite possibly not.”¶ These concerns are misplaced. It is clear that the full 60-point “Decision on Several Major Questions About Deepening Reform”1 encompasses an ambitious agenda to restructure the roles of the government and the market. Combined with other actions from Xi’s first year in office – notably a surprisingly bold anti-corruption campaign – the reform program reveals Xi Jinping as a leader far more powerful and visionary than his predecessor Hu Jintao. He aims to redefine the basic functions of market and government, and in so doing establish himself as China’s most significant leader since Deng Xiaoping. Moreover, he is moving swiftly to establish the bureaucratic machinery that will enable him to overcome resistance and achieve his aims. It remains to be seen whether Xi can deliver on these grand ambitions, and whether his prescription will really prove the cure for China’s mounting social and economic ills. But one thing is for sure: Xi cannot be faulted for thinking too small.

The plan causes a conservative reaction against reform – US engagement is seen as economic containment 

Zhao, professor of Chinese Politics at the University of Denver, 13
Suisheng, 6-13, Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, “Chinese Foreign Policy as a Rising Power to find its Rightful Place”, June, http://sam.gov.tr/tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/perceptions_2013_spring.pdf#page=105, accessed 7-2-13, AR

Obama’s presidency during a deep ¶ financial meltdown provided an ¶ opportunity to test this thesis. Many ¶ Chinese assumed that a weakened U.S., ¶ heavily in debt to China, would have to ¶ make more concessions to China’s core ¶ interests. This assumption seemed to be ¶ confirmed by the first overseas trip in ¶ late February 2009 of a duly penitent ¶ U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, ¶ who once boasted how strongly she ¶ had emphasised human rights during ¶ her 1995 visit to Beijing, but who now ¶ suggested that China’s human rights ¶ records should not get in the way of ¶ cooperation on the financial crisis and ¶ security issues. As a Chinese scholar ¶ noted, after this visit, many Chinese ¶ thought that the U.S. ‘should respond ¶ nicely to China’ because China did ¶ ‘favours for the U.S. on a couple of fronts ¶ – such as investing in its bonds and ¶ jointly stimulating the world economy’. ¶ These Chinese were, therefore, frustrated ¶ at the end of the year by ‘the rigid ¶ U.S. position’ that ‘does not reflect the ¶ nature of the new Sino-U.S. symbiosis and fails to recognise Beijing’s growing international clout’.23 For these Chinese, ¶ the troubled relationship with the Obama ¶ Administration once again confirmed ¶ that due to the structural conflict thesis, ¶ the U.S. engagement policy is simply ¶ another face to cover its hidden agenda ¶ of preventing China from rising as a peer ¶ power. Although many Americans cited ¶ China’s illiberal political system as one of ¶ the main points of friction and pressed ¶ China on the issues of human rights and ¶ democracy, the Chinese have wondered ¶ whether or not conflict would remain ¶ and grow starker even if China became ¶ democratic, as the U.S. would not want ¶ to see China, democratic or not, to be ¶ richer and stronger.¶ Second, many Chinese policymakers ¶ were frustrated by what they perceived ¶ as a Western conspiracy to slow down ¶ China’s rise by blocking China’s ¶ global search for natural resources and ¶ acquisition of foreign assets. China’s ¶ rapid economic growth brought about ¶ an unprecedented resource vulnerability. ¶ In 2003 China overtook Japan as the ¶ second largest oil consumer next to the ¶ U.S., and in 2004 overtook the United ¶ States as the world’s biggest consumer ¶ of grain, meat, coal and steel. China, ¶ therefore, had to search for resources ¶ overseas to sustain its rise. Chinese ¶ policymakers, however, were frustrated ¶ by the perceived attempts by the U.S. and other Western countries to block China in its global search for resources.¶ One of the most often cited examples ¶ is the failure of China National Offshore ¶ Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s US $18.5 ¶ billion business takeover bid for the ¶ California-based oil firm Unocal Corp in ¶ early 2005, because of unusual political ¶ intervention from the U.S. Congress, ¶ which considered that the CNOOC ¶ takeover of Unocal would make it a ¶ state-run entity, and constitute a threat ¶ to U.S. national security. As a result, the ¶ Chevron Corporation, the second largest ¶ U.S. petroleum company, acquired ¶ Unocal for US $17 billion, US $1.5 ¶ billion less than CNOOC’s offer.24 This ¶ setback, perceived as ignominious by the ¶ Chinese leadership, was repeated in 2009 ¶ when the Anglo-Australian mining giant ¶ Rio Tinto walked away from a tentative ¶ agreement reached in 2008 with China ¶ Aluminum Corp (Chinalco), which ¶ had offered to pay US $19.5 billion to ¶ increase its stake in the global mining ¶ giant. The deal would have ranked as the ¶ largest-ever foreign corporate investment ¶ by a Chinese company. But to Beijing’s ¶ frustration, Rio Tinto rejected the deal, ¶ citing fierce shareholder opposition and ¶ the skepticism of Australian regulators ¶ because “‘there are lots of Aussies in ¶ high political places who don’t want ¶ ... land and resources sold to China’.25¶ The rejection was ‘a blow to China’s ambitions to buy access to raw materials crucial for its economic growth’.

Failure of the reform package causes CCP collapse

Herd 12
(Dr Graeme Herd is a Senior Programme Advisor and Senior Fellow, Leadership in Conflict Management Programme and Security Policy at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “The Red Dynasty’s Game of Thrones: Xi Jinping’s Trilemma?”, November 27, http://www.gcsp.ch/Leadership-in-Conflict-Management/Programme-News/Web-Editorial-The-Red-Dynasty-s-Game-of-Thrones-Xi-Jinping-s-Trilemma)

The resolution of Deng Xiaoping central dilemma generated a set of structural and systemic challenges which have morphed into a ticking-time bomb of a trilemma. For the Party and State to survive, Xi Jinping must address three tasks: curbing corruption, maintaining a communist party monopoly on power and rebalancing the economy from export to domestic consumption-led growth model to maintain performance legitimacy. Xi Jinping can push ahead on two fronts but not all three: if the Party curbs corruption and rebalances the economy, it will not be able to maintain its monopoly on power; if it attempts to rebalance the economy and maintain its monopoly control over politics, it will not curb corruption; if it maintains the existing political structure and lives with corruption, it will not be able to rebalance the economy. In effect, if Xi Jinping opts for business as usual – rhetorical anti-corruption window dressing but no fundamental change - his task will be to manage escalating tensions generated by the trilemma, to contain rather than resolves the resultant social explosions.¶ “Zhenxing zhonghua!” or “revitalise China!” supplies the ‘vision thing’, but trust in a better future is a perishable commodity. Time is not neutral: the longer the Chinese leadership waits to address this interlocking agenda the more vested interests become entrenched. In turn, the harder and more insurmountable the task of reform becomes and the weaker the moral legitimacy and ability of the CCP to lead in the face of growing popular anger and resentment. Does Xi Jinping understand that political reform is the golden key that unlocks a stable future? Does he have the will and skill to build and then lead a consensus to that end, even if the choice is between preserving a 91 year old CCP or a 63 year old PRC?¶ If a pragmatic, cautious and conservative compromise candidate can complete Deng Xiaoping’s historic transition by aligning China’s ‘socialist market economy’ with a new ‘socialist political democracy’, his generation will be the PRC’s fifth in name, third in impact. If he fails, and China’s own history is any judge, forced system-change is inevitable; the Red Dynasty’s end a certainty, and its successor a known unknown.

CCP collapse causes a nuclear civil war – risks extinction
Yee and Storey 2002
(Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University, and Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 2002 (The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality, RoutledgeCurzon, pg 5 bham))

The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of political and economic collapse in the PRC, resulting in territorial fragmentation, civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries. Naturally, any or all of these scenarios would have a profoundly negative impact on regional stability. Today the Chinese leadership faces a raft of internal problems, including the increasing political demands of its citizens, a growing population, a shortage of natural resources and a deterioration in the natural environment caused by rapid industrialisation and pollution. These problems are putting a strain on the central government's ability to govern effectively. Political disintegration or a Chinese civil war might result in millions of Chinese refugees seeking asylum in neighbouring countries. Such an unprecedented exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of China's neighbours. A fragmented China could also result in another nightmare scenario - nuclear weapons falling into the hands of irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords.'2 From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.
K
GOD IS DEAD AND TRANSCENDENTAL ETHICS DIED WITH IT. THE MORALITY OF THE 1AC IS ONLY A COMFORTING ILLUSION WE HAVE CREATED IN THE PLACE OF GODS ROTTING CORPSE.
Nietzsche 1882 (Friedrich, Quals are Life-Negating, The Gay Science, Aph. 125, Nietzsche Channel)
Have you not heard of that madman who lit a lantern in the bright morning hours, ran to the market place and cried incessantly: "I seek God! I seek God!"— As many of those who did not believe in God were standing around just then, he provoked much laughter. Has he got lost? asked one. Did he lose his way like a child? asked another. Or is he hiding? Is he afraid of us? Has he gone on a voyage? emigrated?— Thus they yelled and laughed. The madman jumped into their midst and pierced them with his eyes. "Whither is God?" he cried. "I will tell you. We have killed him—you and I! All of us are his murderers! But how did we do this? How could we drink up the sea? Who gave us the sponge to wipe away the entire horizon? What were we doing when we unchained this earth from its sun? Whither is it moving now? Whither are we moving? Away from all suns? Are we not plunging continually? And backward, sideward, forward, in all directions? Is there still any up or down? Are we not straying as through an infinite nothing? Do we not feel the breath of empty space? Has it not become colder? Is not night continually closing in on us? Do we not need to light lanterns in the morning? Do we not hear nothing as yet of the noise of the gravediggers who are burying God? Do we smell nothing as yet of the divine decomposition?—Gods, too, decompose! God is dead! God remains dead! And we have killed him! How shall we comfort ourselves, the murderers of all murderers? What was holiest and mightiest of all that the world has yet owned has bled to death under our knives,—who will wipe this blood off us? What water is there for us to clean ourselves? What festivals of atonement, what sacred games shall we have to invent? Is not the greatness of this deed too great for us? Must we ourselves not become gods simply to appear worthy of it? There has never been a greater deed,—and whoever is born after us, for the sake of this deed he will belong to a higher history than all history hitherto!"— Here the madman fell silent and looked again at his listeners: they, too, were silent and stared at him in astonishment. At last he threw his lantern to the ground, and it broke into pieces and went out. "I have come too early," he said then; "my time is not yet. This tremendous event is still on its way, still wandering—it has not yet reached the ears of men. Lightning and thunder require time; the light of the stars requires time; deeds, though done, still require time to be seen and heard. This deed is still more distant from them than the most distant stars—and yet they have done it themselves!"— It has been related further that on the same day the madman forced his way into several churches and there struck up his requiem aeternam deo. Led out and called to account, he is said always to have replied nothing but: "What after all are these churches now if they are not the tombs and sepulchers of God?"
THE AFF IS A GREAT ESCAPE – THE DESIRE FOR A DIFFERENT WORLD DEMANDS WE CLEAN UP THE STAINS OF THE ONE WE LIVE, CULMINATING IN A HATRED FOR LIFE.
Turnali 03 (Aydan, “nietzsche and the later wittgenstein”, journal of nietzsche studies, issue 26, p. 61-2, muse)
The craving for absolutely general specifications results in doing metaphysics. Unlike Wittgenstein, Nietzsche provides an account of how this craving arises. The creation of the two worlds such as apparent and real world, conditioned and unconditioned world, being and becoming is the creation of the ressentiment of metaphysicians. Nietzsche says, “to imagine another, more valuable world is an expression of hatred for a world that makes one suffer: the ressentiment of metaphysicians against actuality is here creative” (WP III 579). Escaping from this world because there is grief in it results in asceticism. Paying respect to the ascetic ideal is longing for the world that is pure and denaturalized. Craving for frictionless surfaces, for a transcendental, pure, true, ideal, perfect world, is the result of the ressentiment of metaphysicans who suffer in this world. Metaphysicians do not affirm this world as it is, and this paves the way for many explanatory theories in philosophy. In criticizing a philosopher who pays homage to the ascetic ideal, Nietzsche says, “he wants to escape from torture” (GM III 6). The traditional philosopher or the ascetic priest continues to repeat, “‘My kingdom is not of this world’” (GM III 10). This is a longing for another world in which one does not suffer. It is to escape from this world; to create another illusory, fictitious, false world. This longing for “the truth” of a world in which one does not suffer is the desire for a world of constancy. It is supposed that contradiction, change, and deception are the causes of suffering; in other words, the senses deceive; it is from the senses that all misfortunes come; reason corrects the errors; therefore reason is the road to the constant. In sum, this world is an error; the world as it ought to be exists. This will to truth, this quest for another world, this desire for the world as it ought to be, is the result of unproductive thinking. It is unproductive because it is the result of avoiding the creation of the world as it ought to be. According to Nietzsche, the will to truth is “the impotence of the will to create” (WP III 585). Metaphysicians end up with the creation of the “true” world in contrast to the actual, changeable, deceptive, self-contradictory world. They try to discover the true, transcendental world that is already there rather than creating a world for themselves. For Nietzsche, on the other hand, the transcendental world is the “denaturalized world” (WP III 586). The way out of the circle created by the ressentiment of metaphysicians is the will to life rather than the will to truth. The will to truth can be overcome only through a Dionysian relationship to existence. This is the way to a new philosophy, which in Wittgenstein’s terms aims “to show the fly the way out of the fly-bottle” (PI §309).
IN THE FACE OF THE HORROR OF EXISTENCE WE ASK YOU TO VOTE NEGATIVE AS A WILLFUL AFFIRMATION OF VIOLENT EXPLOITATION AS AN INEVITABLE CONDITION OF EARTH
Nietzsche 1886 (Friedrich, Chair of Classical Philology at the University of Basel, Beyond Good and Evil, The Nietzsche Channel, http://www.geocities.com/thenietzschechannel/bge.htm, AD: 7/6/09) jl
Refraining mutually from injury, violence, and exploitation and placing one’s will on a par with that of someone else—this may become, in a certain rough sense, good manners among individuals if the appropriate conditions are present (namely, if these men are actually similar in strength and value standards and belong together in one body). But as soon as this principle is extended, and possibly even accepted as the fundamental principle of society, it immediately proves to be what it really is—a will to the denial of life, a principle of disintegration and decay. Here we must beware of superficiality and get to the bottom of the matter, resisting all sentimental weakness: life itself is essentially appropriation, injury, overpowering of what is alien and weaker; suppression, hardness, imposition of one’s own forms, incorporation and at least, at its mildest, exploitation—but why should one always use those words in which a slanderous intent has been imprinted for ages? Even the body within which individuals treat each other as equals, as suggested before—and this happens in every healthy aristocracy—if it is a living and not a dying body, has to do to other bodies what the individuals within it refrain from doing to each other: it will have to be an incarnate will to power, it will strive to grow, spread, seize, become predominant—not from any morality or immorality but because it is living and because life simply is will to power. But there is no point on which the ordinary consciousness of Europeans resists instruction as on this: everywhere people are now raving, even under scientific disguises, about coming conditions of society in which “the exploitative aspect” will be removed—which sounds to me as if they promised to invent a way of life that would dispense with all organic functions. “Exploitation” does not belong to a corrupt or imperfect and primitive society: it belongs to the essence of what lives, as a basic organic function; it is a consequence of the will to power, which is after all the will of life.— If this should be an innovation as a theory—as a reality it is the original fact of all history: people ought to be honest with themselves at least that far. —  
1NC
1NC Contention One
Democracy coming now-massive momentum
Carbonell, International public affairs consultant, 9
(Nestor, April 2009, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: Engaging Cuba”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/engaging.htm, accessed 7/8/13, KR)
“U.S. Engagement with the Castro Regime Is the Best Hope for a Democratic Cuba.”
Not at all. The hope lies primarily with the silent majority on the island, which is no longer so silent. It includes the brave members of the dissident and human rights movements who remain at the vanguard; the political prisoners who from their cells remain undaunted; the wives of those prisoners parading and demanding the release of their loved ones; intellectuals challenging the Communist Party's rewrite of Cuban history; the priest who sent an open letter to Raúl Castro demanding drastic reforms; tourism workers objecting to stifling taxes; comedians making fun of the government; bloggers debunking the lies spread by the regime; and the Cubans who, during a recent art fair in Havana, went up to the podium, shouted "Freedom!", and were warmly applauded by the audience.
This surging dissident movement, conscious of its rights and determined to be the protagonist of Cuba’s future, needs to be encouraged and supported by the United States and others as Solidarity was in Poland: with sufficient funds and tools for civic, peaceful resistance, and with enlightening radio and TV transmissions that can overcome the regime's jamming and provide the same impetus for change that Radio Free Europe did in the 1980s.
This dissident movement, part of the larger civil society, will eventually coalesce with reformists from within the government's ranks and pave the way for a democratic transition in Cuba. Forget the Castro brothers; these are the Cubans the United States must engage with.
Only the aff reverses the trend toward democratization-new revenue bails out Castro
Carbonell, International public affairs consultant, 9
(Nestor, April 2009, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: Engaging Cuba”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/engaging.htm, accessed 7/8/13, KR)

Depends. Some would say the embargo hasn't worked because Cuba's totalitarian regime remains in power. But it's also exhausted and weaker. The regime today faces disgruntled apparatchiks, cracks within its system, a critical economic and financial situation, and growing restlessness and dissent among the population. ¶ The embargo is the only leverage the United States has to ensure a democratic transition, if not under the Castro brothers, then with their successors. Why give up something for nothing? The European Union did that by unilaterally lifting its diplomatic sanctions against the Cuban regime, but Europe's hopes for human rights improvements have so far been in vain. Despite striking out yet again during his trip to Havana last month, European commissioner for development and humanitarian aid, Louis Michel, said that "Cuba-EU relations may go very far." He also hailed the importance of boosting collaboration between both sides. All this while more than 300 Cuban political prisoners remain behind bars under brutal conditions. ¶ Cuba today is virtually bankrupt, with a huge external debt it is unable to serve or repay. According to the Paris Club group of creditors, Cuba owes close to $30 billion to its trading partners -- the second-highest level of indebtedness reported by the group. Given the sharp decline in oil prices, it is unlikely that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez will be able to maintain the current level of subsidies and other financial assistance granted to Cuba (to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars annually). ¶ Under these circumstances, the Castro regime has embarked on a charm offensive with a single objective in mind: a U.S. bailout. The regime is looking to Uncle Sam for additional dollars via American tourists, plus commercial lines of credit and access to international banks and monetary funds for the renegotiation or cancellation of its external debt. That is leverage the United States could guardedly use -- not to provide life support to a battered tyranny, but to secure meaningful changes that will hasten the democratization of Cuba.
Political reforms in Cuba would send a hemispheric democratic signal---inspires reform movements across Latin America
Arias-King 8 – Fredo Arias-King, founder of the academic quarterly Demokratizatsiaya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, analyst with two regional think tanks: CEON (Miami) and CADAL(Buenos Aires), June 20, 2008, “Latin America and European ‘Soft Power’ Geopolitics,” Documentos, Year VI, No. 86, online: http://www.cadal.org/pdf/download.asp?id_nota=2399
Cuba to the rescue? Paradoxically, but quite realistically, Cuba could become a source of inspiration for Latin America. But instead of inspiring misguided Rousseauean romantics, corrupt demagogues and guerrillas, this time the island nation could give hope to those forces attempting to reform the hemisphere. It could also be the main conduit of European soft power into the rest of the region.¶ So far, only Chile has provided (albeit reluctantly) a model for the reformist forces of the region. Costa Rica is also oftentimes touted as an example of a socially sensitive democracy—although it’s still basically poor. All the other examples are too deeply flawed to offer any kind of model. Cuba could use its pending transition from communism to escape the cultural pathologies of latinoamericanismo, just as several other nations did with the even more pernicious ‘Central Europeanism’ of interethnic conflict, militarism, poverty and war. The only democracy east of Switzerland in the interwar period was Tomáš Masaryk’s Czechoslovakia. However, today there are over a dozen functioning democracies in the region—countries that took advantage of good leadership and a social consensus to dramatically reinvent themselves. The transition from communism provides this opportunity, if the elites take advantage of what Leszek Balcerowicz calls the ‘window of opportunity’, before the honeymoon of extraordinary politics gives way to the restraining humdrum of ordinary politics.¶ If a post-authoritarian Cuba decides to go further than a mediocre status-quo antetransition and finds the courage to model itself as a Caribbean Estonia, then the implications for the rest of the hemisphere will be profound. A Cuba with a Havel or a Mart Laar as president, that implements administrative reform, lustration, a flat tax, open trade, rigorous banking reforms, fiscal discipline, low indebtedness, property rights and fair privatisation, that maybe even joins NATOas a way to reform its bloated military—this Cuba could see Asian-style growth rates and a dramatically better rank in the UN’s Human Development Index (as happened with Estonia), thereby catapulting it from pariah to messiah status in the rest of the hemisphere. This is not to say that only in this exceptional case can a Latin American country reinvent itself—there are also cases worldwide of dramatic improvement through ordinary politics, such as Ireland in the 1990s. However, the type of political figures necessary to achieve something akin to the Irish miracle are few and far between here. Nevertheless, we should have faith in the domino effect a Caribbean Estonia could have. Probably the most constructive EU policy toward Latin America would be to use the soft power of its successful democratic transitions to train a cadre of dissidents in Cuba and Venezuela. The decisive economic reforms undertaken by several post-communist countries will be more relevant than those of Spain, whose reforms were mostly implemented during Franco. 

Latin American democracy’s a key model for democracy globally
Fauriol and Weintraub 95 – Georges Fauriol, director of the CSIS Americas Program, and Sidney Weintraub, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS and the Dean Rusk Professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, Summer 1995, “U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone,” The Washington Quarterly, lexis
The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department regularly parades the fact that all countries in the hemisphere, save one, now have democratically elected governments. True enough, as long as the definition of democracy is flexible, but these countries turned to democracy mostly of their own volition. It is hard to determine if the United States is using the democracy theme as a club in the hemisphere (hold elections or be excluded) or promoting it as a goal. If as a club, its efficacy is limited to this hemisphere, as the 1994 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Indonesia demonstrated in its call for free trade in that region, replete with nondemocratic nations, by 2020. Following that meeting, Latin Americans are somewhat cynical as to whether the United States really cares deeply about promoting democracy if this conflicts with expanding exports.¶ Yet this triad of objectives -- economic liberalization and free trade, democratization, and sustainable development/ alleviation of poverty -- is generally accepted in the hemisphere. The commitment to the latter two varies by country, but all three are taken as valid. All three are also themes expounded widely by the United States, but with more vigor in this hemisphere than anywhere else in the developing world. Thus, failure to advance on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.
Extinction
Diamond 95 - Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, December 1995, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm
OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness. LESSONS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY The experience of this century offers important lessons. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret. Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

Intervening actors solve-companies could still transport goods to Cuba-they read no evidence that the US has forcibly blocked any goods from entering Havana Bay

We bear no moral responsibility for government actions-vote negative on presumption
Must weigh consequences – their moral tunnel vision is complicit with the evil they criticize
, Isaac Professor of Political Science at Indiana University 2
(Jeffrey C, Dissent Magazine, 49(2), “Ends, Means, and Politics”, Spring, Proquest)

As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, Reinhold Niebuhr, and Hannah Arendt have taught, an unyielding concern with moral goodness undercuts political responsibility. The concern may be morally laudable, reflecting a kind of personal integrity, but it suffers from three fatal flaws: (1) It fails to see that the purity of one’s intention does not ensure the achievement of what one intends. Abjuring violence or refusing to make common cause with morally compromised parties may seem like the right thing; but if such tactics entail impotence, then it is hard to view them as serving any moral good beyond the clean conscience of their supporters; (2) it fails to see that in a world of real violence and injustice, moral purity is not simply a form of powerlessness; it is often a form of complicity in injustice. This is why, from the standpoint of politics--as opposed to religion--pacifism is always a potentially immoral stand. In categorically repudiating violence, it refuses in principle to oppose certain violent injustices with any effect; and (3) it fails to see that politics is as much about unintended consequences as it is about intentions; it is the effects of action, rather than the motives of action, that is most significant. Just as the alignment with “good” may engender impotence, it is often the pursuit of “good” that generates evil. This is the lesson of communism in the twentieth century: it is not enough that one’s goals be sincere or idealistic; it is equally important, always, to ask about the effects of pursuing these goals and to judge these effects in pragmatic and historically contextualized ways. Moral absolutism inhibits this judgment. It alienates those who are not true believers. It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness.

Failing to prevent a horrible outcome is just as bad as causing it – the aff is moral evasion.
Nielsen, philosophy prof @ U of Calgary - 93
(Kai, Absolutism and Its Consequentialist Critics, ed. Joram Graf Haber, 1993, p. 170-2)

Forget the levity of the example and consider the case of the innocent fat man. If there really is no other way of unsticking our fat man and if plainly, without blasting him out, everyone in the cave will drown, then, innocent or not, he should be blasted out. This indeed overrides the principle that the innocent should never be deliberately killed, but it does not reveal a callousness toward life, for the people involved are caught in a desperate situation in which, if such extreme action is not taken, many lives will be lost and far greater misery will obtain. Moreover, the people who do such a horrible thing or acquiesce in the doing of it are not likely to be rendered more callous about human life and human suffering as a result. Its occurrence will haunt them for the rest of their lives and is as likely as not to make them more rather than less morally sensitive. It is not even correct to say that such a desperate act shows a lack of respect for persons. We are not treating the fat man merely as a means. The fat man's person his interests and rights are not ignored. Killing him is something which is undertaken with the greatest reluctance. It is only when it is quite certain that there is no other way to save the lives of the others that such a violent course of action is justifiably undertaken. Alan Donagan, arguing rather as Anscombe argues, maintains that "to use any innocent man ill for the sake of some public good is directly to degrade him to being a mere means" and to do this is of course to violate a principle essential to morality, that is, that human beings should never merely be treated as means but should be treated as ends in themselves (as persons worthy of respect)." But, as my above remarks show, it need not be the case, and in the above situation it is not the case, that in killing such an innocent man we are treating him merely as a means. The action is universalizable, all alternative actions which would save his life are duly considered, the blasting out is done only as a last and desperate resort with the minimum of harshness and indifference to his suffering and the like. It indeed sounds ironical to talk this way, given what is done to him. But if such a terrible situation were to arise, there would always be more or less humane ways of going about one's grim task. And in acting in the more humane ways toward the fat man, as we do what we must do and would have done to ourselves were the roles reversed, we show a respect for his person. In so treating the fat man not just to further the public good but to prevent the certain death of a whole group of people (that is to prevent an even greater evil than his being killed in this way) the claims of justice are not overriden either, for each individual involved, if he is reasonably correct, should realize that if he were so stuck rather than the fat man, he should in such situations be blasted out. Thus, there is no question of being unfair. Surely we must choose between evils here, but is there anything more reasonable, more morally appropriate, than choosing the lesser evil when doing or allowing some evil cannot be avoided? That is, where there is no avoiding both and where our actions can determine whether a greater or lesser evil obtains, should we not plainly always opt for the lesser evil? And is it not obviously a greater evil that all those other innocent people should suffer and die than that the fat man should suffer and die? Blowing up the fat man is indeed monstrous. But letting him remain stuck while the whole group drowns is still more monstrous. The consequentialist is on strong moral ground here, and, if his reflective moral convictions do not square either with certain unrehearsed or with certain reflective particular moral convictions of human beings, so much the worse for such commonsense moral convictions. One could even usefully and relevantly adapt herethough for a quite different purpose an argument of Donagan's. Consequentialism of the kind I have been arguing for provides so persuasive "a theoretical basis for common morality that when it contradicts some moral intuition, it is natural to suspect that intuition, not theory, is corrupt."" Given the comprehensiveness, plausibility, and overall rationality of consequentialism, it is not unreasonable to override even a deeply felt moral conviction if it does not square with such a theory, though, if it made no sense or overrode the bulk of or even a great many of our considered moral convictions, that would be another matter indeed. Anticonsequentialists often point to the inhumanity of people who will sanction such killing of the innocent, but cannot the compliment be returned by speaking of the even greater inhumanity, conjoined with evasiveness, of those who will allow even more death and far greater misery and then excuse themselves on the ground that they did not intend the death and misery but merely forbore to prevent it? In such a context, such reasoning and such forbearing to prevent seems to me to constitute a moral evasion. I say it is evasive because rather than steeling himself to do what in normal circumstances would be a horrible and vile act but in this circumstance is a harsh moral necessity, he allows, when he has the power to prevent it, a situation which is still many times worse. He tries to keep his `moral purity' and avoid `dirty hands' at the price of utter moral failure and what Kierkegaard called `double mindedness.' It is understandable that people should act in this morally evasive way but this does not make it right.

Contention Two

Opportunity cost is the only way to make decisions—there’s no rational alternative
RESCHER 2003 (Nicholas, Prof of Philosophy at the University of Pittsburgh, Sensible Decisions: Issues of Rational Decision in Personal Choice and Public Policy, p. 4-5)
In pursing objects of multidimensional value, the payment of what economists call opportunity costs becomes unavoidable.  All of our efforts to obtain good objects or achieve valued objectives require us to make compromises.  Throughout the domain of valued goods it transpires that some among the relevant value-consuming features can be enhanced only at the price of diminishing others.  It thus lies in the nature of things that value realization is always a matter of balance, of trade-offs, of compromise.  Different aspects of merit always compete in point of realization.  We can never have it both ways: a concurrent maximum in every dimension is simply unavailable in this or indeed in any other realistically conceivable world.  With inherently conflicting desiderata, across-the-board maximization is in principle impossible—in practice and generally in theory as well.  All that one can ever reasonably ask for is an auspicious overall combination of values.  Perfection—maximum realization of every value dimension all at once—is unrealizable.  And it makes no sense to ask for the impossible.

Large impacts should always outweigh small ones—their argument is an example of illogical scope neglect
YUDKOWSKY 2006 (Eliezer, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, “Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks,” forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, August 31)
Three groups of subjects considered three versions of the above question, asking them how high a tax increase they would accept to save 2,000, 20,000, or 200,000 birds. The response - known as Stated Willingness-To-Pay, or SWTP - had a mean of $80 for the 2,000-bird group, $78 for 20,000 birds, and $88 for 200,000 birds. (Desvousges et. al. 1993.) This phenomenon is known as scope insensitivity or scope neglect. Similar studies have shown that Toronto residents would pay little more to clean up all polluted lakes in Ontario than polluted lakes in a particular region of Ontario (Kahneman 1986); and that residents of four western US states would pay only 28 more to protect all 57 wilderness areas in those states than to protect a single area (McFadden and Leonard, 1995). The most widely accepted explanation for scope neglect appeals to the affect heuristic. Kahneman et. al. (1999) write: "The story constructed by Desvouges et. al. probably evokes for many readers a mental representation of a prototypical incident, perhaps an image of an exhausted bird, its feathers soaked in black oil, unable to escape. The hypothesis of valuation by prototype asserts that the affective value of this image will dominate expressions of the attitute to the problem - including the willingness to pay for a solution. Valuation by prototype implies extension neglect." Two other hypotheses accounting for scope neglect include purchase of moral satisfaction (Kahneman and Knetsch, 1992) and good cause dump (Harrison 1992). Purchase of moral satisfaction suggests that people spend enough money to create a 'warm glow' in themselves, and the amount required is a property of the person's psychology, having nothing to do with birds. Good cause dump suggests that people have some amount of money they are willing to pay for "the environment", and any question about environmental goods elicits this amount. Scope neglect has been shown to apply to human lives. Carson and Mitchell (1995) report that increasing the alleged risk associated with chlorinated drinking water from 0.004 to 2.43 annual deaths per 1,000 (a factor of 600) increased SWTP from $3.78 to $15.23 (a factor of 4). Baron and Greene (1996) found no effect from varying lives saved by a factor of ten. Fetherstonhaugh et. al. (1997), in a paper entitled "Insensitivity to the Value of Human Life: A Study of Psychophysical Numbing", found evidence that our perception of human deaths, and valuation of human lives, obeys Weber's Law - meaning that we use a logarithmic scale. And indeed, studies of scope neglect in which the quantitative variations are huge enough to elicit any sensitivity at all, show small linear increases in Willingness-To-Pay corresponding to exponential increases in scope. Kahneman et. al. (1999) interpret this as an additive effect of scope affect and prototype affect - the prototype image elicits most of the emotion, and the scope elicits a smaller amount of emotion which is added (not multiplied) with the first amount. Albert Szent-Györgyi said: "I am deeply moved if I see one man suffering and would risk my life for him. Then I talk impersonally about the possible pulverization of our big cities, with a hundred million dead. I am unable to multiply one man's suffering by a hundred million." Human emotions take place within an analog brain. The human brain cannot release enough neurotransmitters to feel emotion a thousand times as strong as the grief of one funeral. A prospective risk going from 10,000,000 deaths to 100,000,000 deaths does not multiply by ten the strength of our determination to stop it. It adds one more zero on paper for our eyes to glaze over, an effect so small that one must usually jump several orders of magnitude to detect the difference experimentally.

Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Juan Diego ZL | Judge:
1NC DA
Democracy coming now-massive momentum
Carbonell, International public affairs consultant, 9
(Nestor, April 2009, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: Engaging Cuba”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/engaging.htm, accessed 7/8/13, KR)
“U.S. Engagement with the Castro Regime Is the Best Hope for a Democratic Cuba.”
Not at all. The hope lies primarily with the silent majority on the island, which is no longer so silent. It includes the brave members of the dissident and human rights movements who remain at the vanguard; the political prisoners who from their cells remain undaunted; the wives of those prisoners parading and demanding the release of their loved ones; intellectuals challenging the Communist Party's rewrite of Cuban history; the priest who sent an open letter to Raúl Castro demanding drastic reforms; tourism workers objecting to stifling taxes; comedians making fun of the government; bloggers debunking the lies spread by the regime; and the Cubans who, during a recent art fair in Havana, went up to the podium, shouted "Freedom!", and were warmly applauded by the audience.
This surging dissident movement, conscious of its rights and determined to be the protagonist of Cuba’s future, needs to be encouraged and supported by the United States and others as Solidarity was in Poland: with sufficient funds and tools for civic, peaceful resistance, and with enlightening radio and TV transmissions that can overcome the regime's jamming and provide the same impetus for change that Radio Free Europe did in the 1980s.
This dissident movement, part of the larger civil society, will eventually coalesce with reformists from within the government's ranks and pave the way for a democratic transition in Cuba. Forget the Castro brothers; these are the Cubans the United States must engage with.
Only the aff reverses the trend toward democratization-new revenue bails out Castro
Carbonell, International public affairs consultant, 9
(Nestor, April 2009, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: Engaging Cuba”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/engaging.htm, accessed 7/8/13, KR)

Depends. Some would say the embargo hasn't worked because Cuba's totalitarian regime remains in power. But it's also exhausted and weaker. The regime today faces disgruntled apparatchiks, cracks within its system, a critical economic and financial situation, and growing restlessness and dissent among the population. ¶ The embargo is the only leverage the United States has to ensure a democratic transition, if not under the Castro brothers, then with their successors. Why give up something for nothing? The European Union did that by unilaterally lifting its diplomatic sanctions against the Cuban regime, but Europe's hopes for human rights improvements have so far been in vain. Despite striking out yet again during his trip to Havana last month, European commissioner for development and humanitarian aid, Louis Michel, said that "Cuba-EU relations may go very far." He also hailed the importance of boosting collaboration between both sides. All this while more than 300 Cuban political prisoners remain behind bars under brutal conditions. ¶ Cuba today is virtually bankrupt, with a huge external debt it is unable to serve or repay. According to the Paris Club group of creditors, Cuba owes close to $30 billion to its trading partners -- the second-highest level of indebtedness reported by the group. Given the sharp decline in oil prices, it is unlikely that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez will be able to maintain the current level of subsidies and other financial assistance granted to Cuba (to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars annually). ¶ Under these circumstances, the Castro regime has embarked on a charm offensive with a single objective in mind: a U.S. bailout. The regime is looking to Uncle Sam for additional dollars via American tourists, plus commercial lines of credit and access to international banks and monetary funds for the renegotiation or cancellation of its external debt. That is leverage the United States could guardedly use -- not to provide life support to a battered tyranny, but to secure meaningful changes that will hasten the democratization of Cuba.
Political reforms in Cuba would send a hemispheric democratic signal---inspires reform movements across Latin America
Arias-King 8 – Fredo Arias-King, founder of the academic quarterly Demokratizatsiaya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, analyst with two regional think tanks: CEON (Miami) and CADAL(Buenos Aires), June 20, 2008, “Latin America and European ‘Soft Power’ Geopolitics,” Documentos, Year VI, No. 86, online: http://www.cadal.org/pdf/download.asp?id_nota=2399
Cuba to the rescue? Paradoxically, but quite realistically, Cuba could become a source of inspiration for Latin America. But instead of inspiring misguided Rousseauean romantics, corrupt demagogues and guerrillas, this time the island nation could give hope to those forces attempting to reform the hemisphere. It could also be the main conduit of European soft power into the rest of the region.¶ So far, only Chile has provided (albeit reluctantly) a model for the reformist forces of the region. Costa Rica is also oftentimes touted as an example of a socially sensitive democracy—although it’s still basically poor. All the other examples are too deeply flawed to offer any kind of model. Cuba could use its pending transition from communism to escape the cultural pathologies of latinoamericanismo, just as several other nations did with the even more pernicious ‘Central Europeanism’ of interethnic conflict, militarism, poverty and war. The only democracy east of Switzerland in the interwar period was Tomáš Masaryk’s Czechoslovakia. However, today there are over a dozen functioning democracies in the region—countries that took advantage of good leadership and a social consensus to dramatically reinvent themselves. The transition from communism provides this opportunity, if the elites take advantage of what Leszek Balcerowicz calls the ‘window of opportunity’, before the honeymoon of extraordinary politics gives way to the restraining humdrum of ordinary politics.¶ If a post-authoritarian Cuba decides to go further than a mediocre status-quo antetransition and finds the courage to model itself as a Caribbean Estonia, then the implications for the rest of the hemisphere will be profound. A Cuba with a Havel or a Mart Laar as president, that implements administrative reform, lustration, a flat tax, open trade, rigorous banking reforms, fiscal discipline, low indebtedness, property rights and fair privatisation, that maybe even joins NATOas a way to reform its bloated military—this Cuba could see Asian-style growth rates and a dramatically better rank in the UN’s Human Development Index (as happened with Estonia), thereby catapulting it from pariah to messiah status in the rest of the hemisphere. This is not to say that only in this exceptional case can a Latin American country reinvent itself—there are also cases worldwide of dramatic improvement through ordinary politics, such as Ireland in the 1990s. However, the type of political figures necessary to achieve something akin to the Irish miracle are few and far between here. Nevertheless, we should have faith in the domino effect a Caribbean Estonia could have. Probably the most constructive EU policy toward Latin America would be to use the soft power of its successful democratic transitions to train a cadre of dissidents in Cuba and Venezuela. The decisive economic reforms undertaken by several post-communist countries will be more relevant than those of Spain, whose reforms were mostly implemented during Franco. 

Latin American democracy’s a key model for democracy globally
Fauriol and Weintraub 95 – Georges Fauriol, director of the CSIS Americas Program, and Sidney Weintraub, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS and the Dean Rusk Professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, Summer 1995, “U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone,” The Washington Quarterly, lexis
The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department regularly parades the fact that all countries in the hemisphere, save one, now have democratically elected governments. True enough, as long as the definition of democracy is flexible, but these countries turned to democracy mostly of their own volition. It is hard to determine if the United States is using the democracy theme as a club in the hemisphere (hold elections or be excluded) or promoting it as a goal. If as a club, its efficacy is limited to this hemisphere, as the 1994 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Indonesia demonstrated in its call for free trade in that region, replete with nondemocratic nations, by 2020. Following that meeting, Latin Americans are somewhat cynical as to whether the United States really cares deeply about promoting democracy if this conflicts with expanding exports.¶ Yet this triad of objectives -- economic liberalization and free trade, democratization, and sustainable development/ alleviation of poverty -- is generally accepted in the hemisphere. The commitment to the latter two varies by country, but all three are taken as valid. All three are also themes expounded widely by the United States, but with more vigor in this hemisphere than anywhere else in the developing world. Thus, failure to advance on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.
Extinction
Diamond 95 - Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, December 1995, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm
OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness. LESSONS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY The experience of this century offers important lessons. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret. Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

1NC – DA 2
China’s economic reform push is underway and succeeding, the only question is leveraging political capital to overcome opposition

Kroeber 11/17
(Arthur R Kroeber is Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings-Tsinghua Center, “Xi Jinping's Ambitious Agenda for Economic Reform in China”, Opinion, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/11/17-xi-jinping-economic-agenda-kroeber)

The much anticipated Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress closed its four-day session last Tuesday. A relatively bland initial communiqué was followed today by a detailed decision document spelling out major initiatives including a relaxation of the one-child policy, the elimination of the repressive “re-education through labor” camps, and a host of reforms to the taxation and state-owned enterprise systems. Today’s blizzard of specific reform pledges allays earlier concerns that the new government led by party chief Xi Jinping and premier Li Keqiang would fail to set major policy goals. But is this enough to answer the three biggest questions analysts have had since Xi and Li ascended a year ago?¶ Those questions are, first, do Xi and his six colleagues on the Politburo standing committee have an accurate diagnosis of China’s structural economic and social ailments? Second, do they have sensible plans for addressing these problems? And third, do they have the political muscle to push reforms past entrenched resistance by big state owned enterprises (SOEs), tycoons, local government officials and other interest groups whose comfortable positions would be threatened by change? Until today, the consensus answers to the first two questions were “we’re not really sure,” and to the third, “quite possibly not.”¶ These concerns are misplaced. It is clear that the full 60-point “Decision on Several Major Questions About Deepening Reform”1 encompasses an ambitious agenda to restructure the roles of the government and the market. Combined with other actions from Xi’s first year in office – notably a surprisingly bold anti-corruption campaign – the reform program reveals Xi Jinping as a leader far more powerful and visionary than his predecessor Hu Jintao. He aims to redefine the basic functions of market and government, and in so doing establish himself as China’s most significant leader since Deng Xiaoping. Moreover, he is moving swiftly to establish the bureaucratic machinery that will enable him to overcome resistance and achieve his aims. It remains to be seen whether Xi can deliver on these grand ambitions, and whether his prescription will really prove the cure for China’s mounting social and economic ills. But one thing is for sure: Xi cannot be faulted for thinking too small.

The plan causes a conservative reaction against reform – US engagement is seen as economic containment 

Zhao, professor of Chinese Politics at the University of Denver, 13
Suisheng, 6-13, Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, “Chinese Foreign Policy as a Rising Power to find its Rightful Place”, June, http://sam.gov.tr/tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/perceptions_2013_spring.pdf#page=105, accessed 7-2-13, AR

Obama’s presidency during a deep ¶ financial meltdown provided an ¶ opportunity to test this thesis. Many ¶ Chinese assumed that a weakened U.S., ¶ heavily in debt to China, would have to ¶ make more concessions to China’s core ¶ interests. This assumption seemed to be ¶ confirmed by the first overseas trip in ¶ late February 2009 of a duly penitent ¶ U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, ¶ who once boasted how strongly she ¶ had emphasised human rights during ¶ her 1995 visit to Beijing, but who now ¶ suggested that China’s human rights ¶ records should not get in the way of ¶ cooperation on the financial crisis and ¶ security issues. As a Chinese scholar ¶ noted, after this visit, many Chinese ¶ thought that the U.S. ‘should respond ¶ nicely to China’ because China did ¶ ‘favours for the U.S. on a couple of fronts ¶ – such as investing in its bonds and ¶ jointly stimulating the world economy’. ¶ These Chinese were, therefore, frustrated ¶ at the end of the year by ‘the rigid ¶ U.S. position’ that ‘does not reflect the ¶ nature of the new Sino-U.S. symbiosis and fails to recognise Beijing’s growing international clout’.23 For these Chinese, ¶ the troubled relationship with the Obama ¶ Administration once again confirmed ¶ that due to the structural conflict thesis, ¶ the U.S. engagement policy is simply ¶ another face to cover its hidden agenda ¶ of preventing China from rising as a peer ¶ power. Although many Americans cited ¶ China’s illiberal political system as one of ¶ the main points of friction and pressed ¶ China on the issues of human rights and ¶ democracy, the Chinese have wondered ¶ whether or not conflict would remain ¶ and grow starker even if China became ¶ democratic, as the U.S. would not want ¶ to see China, democratic or not, to be ¶ richer and stronger.¶ Second, many Chinese policymakers ¶ were frustrated by what they perceived ¶ as a Western conspiracy to slow down ¶ China’s rise by blocking China’s ¶ global search for natural resources and ¶ acquisition of foreign assets. China’s ¶ rapid economic growth brought about ¶ an unprecedented resource vulnerability. ¶ In 2003 China overtook Japan as the ¶ second largest oil consumer next to the ¶ U.S., and in 2004 overtook the United ¶ States as the world’s biggest consumer ¶ of grain, meat, coal and steel. China, ¶ therefore, had to search for resources ¶ overseas to sustain its rise. Chinese ¶ policymakers, however, were frustrated ¶ by the perceived attempts by the U.S. and other Western countries to block China in its global search for resources.¶ One of the most often cited examples ¶ is the failure of China National Offshore ¶ Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s US $18.5 ¶ billion business takeover bid for the ¶ California-based oil firm Unocal Corp in ¶ early 2005, because of unusual political ¶ intervention from the U.S. Congress, ¶ which considered that the CNOOC ¶ takeover of Unocal would make it a ¶ state-run entity, and constitute a threat ¶ to U.S. national security. As a result, the ¶ Chevron Corporation, the second largest ¶ U.S. petroleum company, acquired ¶ Unocal for US $17 billion, US $1.5 ¶ billion less than CNOOC’s offer.24 This ¶ setback, perceived as ignominious by the ¶ Chinese leadership, was repeated in 2009 ¶ when the Anglo-Australian mining giant ¶ Rio Tinto walked away from a tentative ¶ agreement reached in 2008 with China ¶ Aluminum Corp (Chinalco), which ¶ had offered to pay US $19.5 billion to ¶ increase its stake in the global mining ¶ giant. The deal would have ranked as the ¶ largest-ever foreign corporate investment ¶ by a Chinese company. But to Beijing’s ¶ frustration, Rio Tinto rejected the deal, ¶ citing fierce shareholder opposition and ¶ the skepticism of Australian regulators ¶ because “‘there are lots of Aussies in ¶ high political places who don’t want ¶ ... land and resources sold to China’.25¶ The rejection was ‘a blow to China’s ambitions to buy access to raw materials crucial for its economic growth’.

Failure of the reform package causes CCP collapse

Herd 12
(Dr Graeme Herd is a Senior Programme Advisor and Senior Fellow, Leadership in Conflict Management Programme and Security Policy at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “The Red Dynasty’s Game of Thrones: Xi Jinping’s Trilemma?”, November 27, http://www.gcsp.ch/Leadership-in-Conflict-Management/Programme-News/Web-Editorial-The-Red-Dynasty-s-Game-of-Thrones-Xi-Jinping-s-Trilemma)

The resolution of Deng Xiaoping central dilemma generated a set of structural and systemic challenges which have morphed into a ticking-time bomb of a trilemma. For the Party and State to survive, Xi Jinping must address three tasks: curbing corruption, maintaining a communist party monopoly on power and rebalancing the economy from export to domestic consumption-led growth model to maintain performance legitimacy. Xi Jinping can push ahead on two fronts but not all three: if the Party curbs corruption and rebalances the economy, it will not be able to maintain its monopoly on power; if it attempts to rebalance the economy and maintain its monopoly control over politics, it will not curb corruption; if it maintains the existing political structure and lives with corruption, it will not be able to rebalance the economy. In effect, if Xi Jinping opts for business as usual – rhetorical anti-corruption window dressing but no fundamental change - his task will be to manage escalating tensions generated by the trilemma, to contain rather than resolves the resultant social explosions.¶ “Zhenxing zhonghua!” or “revitalise China!” supplies the ‘vision thing’, but trust in a better future is a perishable commodity. Time is not neutral: the longer the Chinese leadership waits to address this interlocking agenda the more vested interests become entrenched. In turn, the harder and more insurmountable the task of reform becomes and the weaker the moral legitimacy and ability of the CCP to lead in the face of growing popular anger and resentment. Does Xi Jinping understand that political reform is the golden key that unlocks a stable future? Does he have the will and skill to build and then lead a consensus to that end, even if the choice is between preserving a 91 year old CCP or a 63 year old PRC?¶ If a pragmatic, cautious and conservative compromise candidate can complete Deng Xiaoping’s historic transition by aligning China’s ‘socialist market economy’ with a new ‘socialist political democracy’, his generation will be the PRC’s fifth in name, third in impact. If he fails, and China’s own history is any judge, forced system-change is inevitable; the Red Dynasty’s end a certainty, and its successor a known unknown.

CCP collapse causes a nuclear civil war – risks extinction
Yee and Storey 2002
(Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University, and Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 2002 (The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality, RoutledgeCurzon, pg 5 bham))

The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of political and economic collapse in the PRC, resulting in territorial fragmentation, civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries. Naturally, any or all of these scenarios would have a profoundly negative impact on regional stability. Today the Chinese leadership faces a raft of internal problems, including the increasing political demands of its citizens, a growing population, a shortage of natural resources and a deterioration in the natural environment caused by rapid industrialisation and pollution. These problems are putting a strain on the central government's ability to govern effectively. Political disintegration or a Chinese civil war might result in millions of Chinese refugees seeking asylum in neighbouring countries. Such an unprecedented exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of China's neighbours. A fragmented China could also result in another nightmare scenario - nuclear weapons falling into the hands of irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords.'2 From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.

T
Economic engagement includes only tangible trade and financial benefits --- including political, military, or cultural engagement explodes the topic
Haass 00 – Richard Haass and Meghan O’Sullivan, Senior Fellows in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 5-6

Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from which to choose. Economic engagement might offer tangible incentives such as export credits, investment insurance or promotion, access to technology, loans, and economic aid.’2 Other equally useful economic incentives involve the removal of penalties, whether they be trade embargoes, investment bans, or high tariffs that have impeded economic relations between the United States and the target country. In addition, facilitated entry into the global economic arena and the institutions that govern it rank among the most potent incentives in today’s global market.’
Similarly, political engagement can involve the lure of diplomatic recognition, access to regional or international institutions, or the scheduling of summits between leaders—or the termination of these benefits. Military engagement could involve the extension of International Military Educational Training (IMET) both to strengthen respect for civilian authority and human rights among a country’s armed forces and, more feasibly, to establish relationships between Americans and young foreign mffitary officers.’4 These areas of engagement are likely to involve, working with state institutions, while cultural or civil society engagement is likely to entail building people-to-people contacts. Funding nongovernmental organizations, facilitating the flow of remittances, establishing postal and telephone links between the United States and the target country, and promoting the exchange of students, tourists, and other nongovernmental people between the countries are some of the incentives that might be offered under a policy of cultural engagement.
This brief overview of the various forms of engagement illuminates the choices open to policymakers. The plethora of options signals the flexibility of engagement as a foreign policy strategy and, in doing so, reveals one of the real strengths of engagement. At the same time, it also suggests the urgent need for considered analysis of this strategy. The purpose of this book is to address this need by deriving insights and lessons from past episodes of engagement and proposing guidelines for the future use of engagement strategies. Throughout the book, two critical questions are entertained. First, when should policymakers consider engagement? A strategy of engagement may serve certain foreign policy objectives better than others. Specific characteristics of a target country may make it more receptive to a strategy of engagement and the incentives offered under it; in other cases, a country's domestic politics may effectively exclude the use of engagement strategies. Second, how should engagement strategies be managed to maximize the chances of success? Shedding light on how policymakers achieved, or failed, in these efforts in the past is critical in an evaluation of engagement strategies. By focusing our analysis, these questions and concerns help produce a framework to guide the use of engagement strategies in the upcoming decades.
Voting issue for limits and ground --- non-economic areas are huge, overstretch research burdens and require completely different strategies- sanctions on arms sales aren’t economic engagement- the aff is extra topical- default to competing interpretations
CP 1
The United States federal government should sign a science and technology agreement with Cuba.
Science cooperation solves Latin American relations, disaster preparedness, tropical diseases, biotechnology and biodiversity
Pastrana and Clegg, 08. Foreign Secretary of the Academia de Ciencias de Cuba, Foreign Secretary of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and Donald Bren Professor of Biological Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the School of Biological Sciences, University of California (Sergio, Michael, “U.S.-Cuban Scientific Relations”. 7/3/13. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/322/5900/345.full?ijkey=3aK7XuLHCJLJ.andkeytype=refandsiteid=sci. KJ)

In a few years, the two oldest national academies of science in the world outside of Europe—those of the United States and Cuba—will celebrate their 150th anniversaries. Yet despite the proximity of both nations and many common scientific interests, the U.S. embargo on exchanges with Cuba, which began in 1961 and is now based on the 1996 U.S. Helms-Burton Act and subsequent regulations, has largely blocked scientific exchange. It's time to establish a new scientific relationship, not only to address shared challenges in health, climate, agriculture, and energy, but also to start building a framework for expanded cooperation. ¶ Restrictions on U.S.-Cuba scientific cooperation deprive both research communities of opportunities that could benefit our societies, as well as others in the hemisphere, particularly in the Caribbean. Cuba is scientifically proficient in disaster management and mitigation, vaccine production, and epidemiology. Cuban scientists could benefit from access to research facilities that are beyond the capabilities of any developing country, and the U.S. scientific community could benefit from high-quality science being done in Cuba. For example, Cuba typically sits in the path of hurricanes bound for the U.S. mainland that create great destruction, as was the case with Hurricane Katrina and again last month with Hurricane Ike. Cuban scientists and engineers have learned how to protect threatened populations and minimize damage. Despite the category 3 rating of Hurricane Ike when it struck Cuba, there was less loss of life after a 3-day pounding than that which occurred when it later struck Texas as a category 2 hurricane. Sharing knowledge in this area would benefit everybody.¶ Another major example where scientific cooperation could save lives is Cuba's extensive research on tropical diseases, such as dengue fever. This viral disease is epidemic throughout the tropics, notably in the Americas, and one of the first recorded outbreaks occurred in Philadelphia in the 18th century. Today, one of the world's most outstanding research centers dedicated to dengue fever is in Cuba, and although it actively cooperates with Latin America and Africa, there is almost no interaction with U.S. scientists. Dengue fever presents a threat to the U.S. mainland, and sharing knowledge resources to counter outbreaks of the disease would be an investment in the health security of both peoples. ¶ Cuba has also made important strides in biotechnology, including the production of several important vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, and its research interests continue to expand in diverse fields, ranging from drug addiction treatment to the preservation of biodiversity. Cuban scientists are engaged in research cooperation with many countries, including the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico, China, and India. Yet there is no program of cooperation with any U.S. research institution. ¶ The value system of science—openness, shared communication, integrity, and a respect for evidence—provides a framework for open engagement and could encourage evidence-based approaches that cross from science into the social, economic, and political arenas. Beyond allowing for the mutual leveraging of knowledge and resources, scientific contacts could build important cultural and social links among peoples. A recent Council on Foreign Relations report argues that the United States needs to revamp its engagement with Latin America because it is no longer the only significant force in this hemisphere. U.S. policies that are seen as unfairly penalizing Cuba, including the imposition of trade limitations that extend into scientific relations, continue to undermine U.S. standing in the entire region, especially because neither Cuba nor any other Latin American country imposes such restrictions. ¶ As a start, we urge that the present license that permits restricted travel to Cuba by scientists, as dictated by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, be expanded so as to allow direct cooperation in research. At the same time, Cuba should favor increased scientific exchanges. Allowing scientists to fully engage will not only support progress in science, it may well favor positive interactions elsewhere to promote human well-being. The U.S. embargo on Cuba has hindered exchanges for the past 50 years. Let us celebrate our mutual anniversaries by starting a new era of scientific cooperation.
CP 2
CP: The United States federal government should remove sanctions against Cuba except for those pertaining to cruise ship related industries.
Pollution is down in Havana Bay, and only a handful of cruise ships dock per year.
Jara, writer for News Daily, 13
Fransisco, 5/9/13, News Daily, “Havana Bay Slowly Reclaims Historic Splendor”, http://www.newsdaily.com/environment/3dd3a5fa85865cd1d45db819a88df5aa/havana-bay-slowly-reclaims-historic-splendor, NCM

Pelicans and their prey are back in Havana Bay in a sign that efforts to clean up the historic and once splendid port of the Cuban capital are paying off. "They disappeared long ago but because of the cleanup the fish have returned -- and therefore so have the pelicans," said fisherman Eduardo Lozano who spends every day out on the sheltered expanse of water. The presence of the big-beaked creatures gives credence to local expert claims that pollution in the bay -- once a base for Spanish galleons that returned to Europe laden with Latin American treasure -- has been reduced by 50 to 60 percent over the past few years. The cleanup program was launched back in 1998, with a working group known as GTE-BH tracing the contamination to a hundred sources, according to the official Cuban newspaper Trabajadores. Last year alone, according to a recent article, dumping of pollutants was scaled back by 30 percent compared to 2011.
"Today, crossing the bay by ferry to go from the old town to the Regla neighborhood (to the south of the bay) is a pleasure when just a few years ago the stench was unbearable," Trabajadores said. Three waterways that make their way through populated parts of southern Havana -- and are polluted by various industries -- flow into the bay, which spans 5.2 square kilometers and features fortresses called El Morro and La Cabana. And then there's the Nico Lopez refinery that is due to be shuttered after billowing black smoke into the Havana sky for about 60 years. It's all part of a plan to transfer all maritime traffic to Mariel, 50 kilometers (31 miles) to the west of Havana, where a vast port is being built, financed by Brazilian capital and realized in large part by construction giant Odebrecht at an investment of about a billion dollars.
The goal is to clear Havana's port of eyesore tankers and container ships to make space for cruise ships and pleasure boats instead, in an attempt to create a tourist destination that takes advantage of the historical setting. For that reason, restoration work has started on quays in the old town under the leadership of the Office of the Historian. Old customs buildings are also being renovated while tourism and pedestrian zones are being set up. It remains to be seen if the effort will have the desired effect. In light of the decades-old US embargo against the Communist-run island, cruise ships that do dock in Havana each year can be counted on one hand, and the few pleasure boats that make it are relegated to a decrepit marina to the west of the capital. Americans technically are allowed to visit Cuba, but they are required to seek special US government permission to go to the Caribbean island nation.
Both the Cuban and American private sectors are making plans for major tourism in the status quo- they’re just waiting for the embargo to be lifted so they can capitalize on the opportunity
ETN, news organization, 09
ETN: Global Travel Industry News, 9/18/09, “Is Cuba Ready for US Tourists?”, http://www.eturbonews.com/11774/cuba-ready-us-tourists, NCM

At first glance, Cuba's business potential looks as pretty as its postcards: A nearly five-decades-long embargo has made the island just 90 miles from Florida's coast hungry for nearly every good and service a U.S. company might provide. But the flip side tells a different story about the most populous country in the Caribbean: that of a cash-strapped state with crumbling infrastructure and an economy in the stranglehold of an authoritarian government. Those conflicting realities, however, are not stopping entrepreneurs from planning for the day when the embargo is lifted -- or from taking advantage of business opportunities already permissible under the embargo. Tourism and telecom firms have been energized by recent regulations promising greater access; port operators and oil drillers are gearing up for a rush; and lawyers and consultants are lining up for a piece of the action. "Every sector is going to be important," said Richard Waltzer, the chairman of the Havana Group, a consulting firm that helps U.S. businesses lay the groundwork for the day sanctions are lifted. "This is an island that really hasn't developed." But in the short term, Waltzer said, the "building of hotels and tourism infrastructure is going to be the new economy for Cuba." The Tourism Draw
With its broad beaches, stunning colonial architecture and world-class artists, it's not hard to imagine the island as a tourist mecca. For Cuba, more foreign visitors would provide access to the quick cash that it needs to jump-start the economy. The island received 2.3 million visitors in 2008, according to the Caribbean Tourism Organization. If the U.S. government dropped its travel restrictions entirely, rather than just for Cuban Americans -- and Cuba proved as big a draw for American tourists as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, or Cancun, Mexico -- the island could expect more than one million additional visitors a year. Mere curiosity -- seeing '58 Oldsmobiles and giant Che portraits on buildings -- could lure many, said Damian Fernandez, a longtime Cuban policy expert and provost of Purchase College State University of New York.
"Post-embargo, the biggest, fastest impact would be in tourism," he said. But it's unclear if Cuba could handle the influx. The island has about 50,000 hotel rooms, about as many as Miami-Dade County, according to a report released by the Cuba Committee of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce. And while it is making improvements, its phone system, electricity and water-supply infrastructure are struggling. Cuba's Old World feel is part of its charm, but many visitors are also looking for modern amenities, said Mark Watson, 30, a tourist from Canada who recently visited the island. Compared with other Caribbean tourist destinations, he found the island's food mediocre, prices expensive and his hotel, the Tryp Habana Libre, where rooms start at $168 a night, outdated and shabby. "I'm not sorry I came here," he said. "But I will never be back." The infrastructure woes may not only scare away visitors but stunt the growth of other tourism enterprises, said Tim Gallagher, vice president for public relations at Carnival Cruise Lines. "You can take people to the islands, but you have to have a way to transport them once they are there and have tours for them," he said from the company's Miami offices. "Whenever Cuba does finally open up, it will take a while to put all that into place." Gallagher said Carnival will develop a Cuba strategy if and when visiting the island is viable. "It has been so many years that people have been saying that Cuba will open up, but no one really knows when that will happen," he said. "At the time they do, then we are certainly interested." The infrastructure challenge is not easily overcome. "It's a chicken-and-egg problem," said Jorge Pinon, a longtime Cuba analyst. "Cuba needs the infrastructure to attract investors, but it can't pay for the infrastructure until it gets the investors." Retirement Haven?
One way to skirt the issue is to look at businesses that might be created in self-sufficient compounds, said Leo Guzman, founder of the Guzman and Co. investment bank and a former board member of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp.
Cuba's mild weather, proximity to the United States and surplus of trained doctors and nurses could make it ideal for Cuban-American retirees and those requiring long-term medical care, he said. Such enclaves might also be more likely to win approval from the Cuban government, he said. Cuban authorities would "want the Cuban Americans in a community as opposed to interspersed in the community, to lower social friction," he said. "And from a political perspective, retirees are the kind of people that the Cuban government would want, i.e. too old to cause problems."
Tourism directly leads to Cuban ecosystem collapse
Barclay, writer for TreeHugger, 8
Eliza, 1/10/8, TreeHugger, “Cuba’s Environment Threatened As Embargo’s End Looms”, http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/cubas-environment-threatened-as-embargos-end-looms.html, NCM

The New York Times had a piece recently on what the end of the United States' economic embargo against Cuba could mean for the Caribbean nation's impressive successes in environmental protection. In a report last year, the World Wildlife Fund said that Cuba's beaches, mangroves, reefs, seagrass beds and other habitats are most at risk by "the prospect of sudden and massive growth in mass tourism when the U.S. embargo lifts." Cuba has done "what we should have done — identify your hot spots of biodiversity and set them aside," Oliver Houck, a professor of environmental law at Tulane University Law School, told the Times. Cuba has the most biologically diverse populations of freshwater fish in the region. Its relatively large underwater coastal shelves are crucial for numerous marine species, including some whose larvae can be carried by currents into waters of the United States, The story notes that what may prove to be decisive once the embargo is removed is Cuba's lacks of a grassroots environmental movement. In other words, so far, the country has few environmental groups or activists to stand up to what will likely be powerful interests in tourism development. 

The Caribbean is a biodiversity hotspot
CEPF ‘10
(quoting Mittermeier -- the same author that establishes the “hotspot” thesis and writes our impact ev. , Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. CEPF is the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund – “Ecosystem Profile: THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOT” – Prepared by: BirdLife International¶ in collaboration with:¶ Durrell Wildlife Conservation¶ Trust / Bath University¶ The New York Botanical Garden¶ and with the technical support of:¶ Conservation International-Center¶ for Applied Biodiversity Science; assistance for this report was offered by 100 international and non-profit organizations. Jan 15th – http://www.cepf.net/Documents/Final_Caribbean_EP.pdf)

The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is one of the  world’s greatest centers of biodiversity and¶ endemism, yet its biodiversity and the natural¶ services it provides are highly threatened. Although¶ the islands have protected areas systems, most ar¶ e inadequately managed and important areas lack¶ protection. This strategy will ensure that CEPF¶ funds are employed in the most effective manner¶ and generate significant conservation results that¶ not only complement the actions of other¶ stakeholders but also enable significant expansion¶ of strategic conservation for the benefit of all.¶ Everyone depends on Earth’s ecosystems and their life-sustaining benefits, such as clean air,¶ fresh water and healthy soils. Founded in 2000,¶ the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF)¶ has become a global leader in en¶ abling civil society to participate in and benefit from conserving¶ some of the world’s most critical ecosystems. C¶ EPF is a joint initiative of l'Agence Française de¶ Développement, Conservation International, the Gl¶ obal Environment Facility, the Government of¶ Japan, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the World Bank. As one of the¶ founding partners, Conservation International ad¶ ministers the global program through a CEPF¶ Secretariat.¶ CEPF provides grants for nongovern¶ mental and other private organizations to help protect¶ biodiversity hotspots, Earth’s most biologically¶ rich and threatened areas. The convergence of¶ critical areas for conservation with millions¶ of people who are impoverished and highly¶ dependent on healthy ecosystems is more ev¶ ident in the hotspots than anywhere else.¶ CEPF is unique among funding mechanisms in th¶ at it focuses on biological areas rather than¶ political boundaries and examines conservation th¶ reats on a landscape-scale basis. A fundamental¶ purpose of CEPF is to ensure that civil society is¶ engaged in efforts to conserve biodiversity in¶ the hotspots, and to this end, CEPF provides ci¶ vil society with an agile and flexible funding¶ mechanism complementing funding currently¶ available to government agencies.¶ CEPF promotes working alliances among commun¶ ity groups, nongovernmental organizations¶ (NGOs), government, academic institutions and¶ the private sector, combining unique capacities¶ and eliminating duplication of efforts for a¶ comprehensive approach to conservation. CEPF¶ targets trans-boundary cooperation for areas rich of¶ biological value that straddle national borders¶ or in areas where a regional approach may be more effective than a national approach.¶ A recent, updated analysis reveals the existence of¶ 34 biodiversity hotspots, each holding at least¶ 1,500 endemic plant species, and having lost at¶ least 70 percent of its original habitat extent¶ (Mittermeier¶ et al¶ . 2005). The Caribbean islands qualify  as one of these global biodiversity¶ hotspots by virtue of their high endemicity and high degree of threat.¶ The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is exceptionally important for global biodiversity conservation.¶ The hotspot includes important ecosystems, fro¶ m montane cloud forests to coral reefs, and¶ supports populations of unique species amounting to at least 2 percent of the world’s total¶ species. 

Biodiversity in specific hotspots solves extinction -- key to ag, medicine, and ecosystems
Mittermeier ‘11
(et al, Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He has conducted fieldwork for over 30 years on three continents and in more than 20 countries in mainly tropical locations. He is the President of Conservation International and he is considered an expert on biological diversity. Mittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species. From Chapter One of the book Biodiversity Hotspots – F.E. Zachos and J.C. Habel (eds.), DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011. This evidence also internally references Norman Myers, a very famous British environmentalist specialising in biodiversity. available at: http://www.academia.edu/1536096/Global_biodiversity_conservation_the_critical_role_of_hotspots)

Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is¶ irreversible. Human activities have elevated the rate of species extinctions to a¶ thousand or more times the natural background rate (Pimm et al. 1995). What are the¶ consequences of this loss? Most obvious among them may be the lost opportunity¶ for future resource use. Scientists have discovered a mere fraction of Earth’s species¶ (perhaps fewer than 10, or even 1) and understood the biology of even fewer¶ (Novotny et al. 2002). As species vanish, so too does the health security of every¶ human. Earth’s species are a vast genetic storehouse that may harbor a cure for¶ cancer, malaria, or the next new pathogen – cures waiting to be discovered.¶ Compounds initially derived from wild species account for more than half of all¶ commercial medicines – even more in developing nations (Chivian and Bernstein¶ 2008). Natural forms, processes, and ecosystems provide blueprints and inspiration¶ for a growing array of new materials, energy sources, hi-tech devices, and¶ other innovations (Benyus 2009). The current loss of species has been compared¶ to burning down the world’s libraries without knowing the content of 90 or¶ more of the books. With loss of species, we lose the ultimate source of our crops¶ and the genes we use to improve agricultural resilience, the inspiration for¶ manufactured products, and the basis of the structure and function of the ecosystems¶ that support humans and all life on Earth (McNeely et al. 2009). Above and beyond¶ material welfare and livelihoods, biodiversity contributes to security, resiliency,¶ and freedom of choices and actions (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).¶ Less tangible, but no less important, are the cultural, spiritual, and moral costs¶ inflicted by species extinctions. All societies value species for their own sake,¶ and wild plants and animals are integral to the fabric of all the world’s cultures¶ (Wilson 1984). The road to extinction is made even more perilous to people by the loss of the broader ecosystems that underpin our livelihoods, communities, and economies(McNeely et al.2009). The loss of coastal wetlands and mangrove forests, for example, greatly exacerbates both human mortality and economic damage from tropical cyclones (Costanza et al.2008; Das and Vincent2009), while disease outbreaks such as the 2003 emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in East Asia have been directly connected to trade in wildlife for human consumption(Guan et al.2003). Other consequences of biodiversity loss, more subtle but equally damaging, include the deterioration of Earth’s natural capital. Loss of biodiversity on land in the past decade alone is estimated to be costing the global economy $500 billion annually (TEEB2009). Reduced diversity may also reduce resilience of ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them. For example, more diverse coral reef communities have been found to suffer less from the diseases that plague degraded reefs elsewhere (Raymundo et al.2009). As Earth’s climate changes, the roles of species and ecosystems will only increase in their importance to humanity (Turner et al.2009).¶ In many respects, conservation is local. People generally care more about the biodiversity in the place in which they live. They also depend upon these ecosystems the most – and, broadly speaking, it is these areas over which they have the most control. Furthermore, we believe that all biodiversity is important and that every nation, every region, and every community should do everything possible to conserve their living resources. So, what is the importance of setting global priorities? Extinction is a global phenomenon, with impacts far beyond nearby administrative borders. More practically, biodiversity, the threats to it, and the ability of countries to pay for its conservation vary around the world. The vast majority of the global conservation budget – perhaps 90 – originates in and is spent in economically wealthy countries (James et al.1999). It is thus critical that those globally ?exible funds available – in the hundreds of millions annually – be guided by systematic priorities if we are to move deliberately toward a global goal of reducing biodiversity loss.¶ The establishment of priorities for biodiversity conservation is complex, but can be framed as a single question. Given the choice, where should action toward reducing the loss of biodiversity be implemented ?rst? The ?eld of conservation planning addresses this question and revolves around a framework of vulnerability and irreplaceability (Margules and Pressey2000). Vulnerability measures the risk to the species present in a region – if the species and ecosystems that are highly threatened are not protected now, we will not get another chance in the future. Irreplaceability measures the extent to which spatial substitutes exist for securing biodiversity. The number of species alone is an inadequate indication of conserva-tion priority because several areas can share the same species. In contrast, areas with high levels of endemism are irreplaceable. We must conserve these places because the unique species they contain cannot be saved elsewhere. Put another way, biodiversity is not evenly distributed on our planet. It is heavily concentrated in certain areas, these areas have exceptionally high concentrations of endemic species found nowhere else, and many (but not all) of these areas are the areas at greatest risk of disappearing because of heavy human impact.¶ Myers’ seminal paper (Myers1988) was the ?rst application of the principles of irreplaceability and vulnerability to guide conservation planning on a global scale. Myers described ten tropical forest “hotspots” on the basis of extraordinary plant endemism and high levels of habitat loss, albeit without quantitative criteria for the designation of “hotspot” status. A subsequent analysis added eight additional hotspots, including four from Mediterranean-type ecosystems (Myers 1990).After adopting hotspots as an institutional blueprint in 1989, Conservation Interna-tional worked with Myers in a ?rst systematic update of the hotspots. It introduced two strict quantitative criteria: to qualify as a hotspot, a region had to contain at least 1,500 vascular plants as endemics (¶ ¶ 0.5 of the world’s total), and it had to have 30 or less of its original vegetation (extent of historical habitat cover)remaining. These efforts culminated in an extensive global review (Mittermeier et al.1999) and scienti?c publication (Myers et al.2000) that introduced seven new hotspots on the basis of both the better-de?ned criteria and new data. A second systematic update (Mittermeier et al.2004) did not change the criteria, but revisited the set of hotspots based on new data on the distribution of species and threats, as well as genuine changes in the threat status of these regions. That update rede?ned several hotspots, such as the Eastern Afromontane region, and added several others that were suspected hotspots but for which suf?cient data either did not exist or were not accessible to conservation scientists outside of those regions. Sadly, it uncovered another region – the East Melanesian Islands – which rapid habitat destruction had in a short period of time transformed from a biodiverse region that failed to meet the “less than 30 of original vegetation remaining” criterion to a genuine hotspot.

Advantage

OAS ineffective- no political power, long decision making and application, and can’t impose democracy
Lee 12 – Senior Production Editor Council on Foreign Relations (Briana, Council on Foreign Relations, “The Organization of American States, April 13, 2012, http://www.cfr.org/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/organization-american-states/p27945)

The Organization of American States serves as a body for regional integration and political, economic, and social cooperation among its thirty-five member states. The OAS has undertaken multiple initiatives to monitor human rights, provide electoral oversight, promote development, and enhance security in the Americas. However, while the organization has been recognized for its value in providing information and serving as a forum for high-level discussion, it has also come under fire for the weakness of its political power, ineffectiveness in decision-making, and inconsistency in applying its democratic principles to states. Ideological polarization and mistrust of the OAS have prompted doubts over its relevance in the region, spurring the creation of alternative platforms for regional integration.
Questions of Effectiveness and Relevance
CFR's Shannon K. O'Neil says the OAS's role as a forum for regular, high-level discussions on issues facing the hemisphere is one of its major strengths. Several other analysts have praised the Inter-American Human Rights Commission as a crucial, objective platform for human rights litigation. However, many state leaders and policymakers have also heavily criticized the OAS for its institutional weakness. Christopher Sabatini, senior policy director for the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, says the OAS as a political entity "has declined precipitously in recent years."
One of the OAS's major administrative constraints is its consensus model, which requires a unanimous vote to make many of its decisions. As political ideologies have diversified within the region, this has made it difficult for the OAS to make quick, decisive calls to action. The polarization between American states has also led to one of the OAS's other major shortcomings: its many mandates unrelated to the core mission. In 2010, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged the OAS to streamline its processes (VOA) from what she called a "proliferation of mandates," noting that the expansion of mandates without proportional expansion of funding made for an "unsustainable" fiscal future.
Election monitoring, one of the OAS's major functions in light of its commitment to democracy, is also restricted by its inability to send election observers without the invitation of state governments. "They can't condemn a country unless that country wants to be condemned," CFR's O'Neil says. Nevertheless, she adds, it has become a norm in many member countries to accept OAS monitors, which she says has been helpful.

Divisions within OAS and anti US sentiment means they can’t solve- drugs prove
Youngers 13 - Latin America Regional Associate at International Drug Policy Consortium, senior fellow Washington Office on Latin America (Coletta, Foreign Policy in Focus, “Finally — Pride of Place for Drug Policy at the OAS General Assembly Meeting”, June 21, 2013, http://fpif.org/finally_pride_of_place_for_drug_policy_at_the_oas_general_assembly_meeting/)

This year’s annual General Assembly meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), which brings together the hemisphere’s foreign ministers, marked a milestone in the Latin American drug policy debate. For the first time, the drug policy issue was the primary theme of a hemispheric meeting and, in a closed-door meeting of the foreign ministers, a process was laid out for continuing the discussion, culminating in a Special Session of the General Assembly to be held in 2014. The significance of this meeting should not be underestimated. Drug policy has long been a taboo topic in official Latin American circles, given the traditional U.S. dominance in defining drug policies in the region. As one official noted, “Even two years ago I would not have imagined that we would be having this discussion today.” The General Assembly meeting in Antigua, Guatemala, from June 4 to 6 illustrated that there is growing recognition across the region that present drug control policies are failing and that some countries in particular have paid a very high social, economic and political cost for implementing those policies, hence the need to consider alternative approaches. However, the Antigua meeting also showed a lack of consensus on the way forward.
The declaration agreed to at the end of the meeting, “For a Comprehensive Policy Against the World Drug Problem in the Americas,” calls for countries to initiate a multi-layered process of consultation in a variety of national and regional forums, taking into account the recently-released OAS drug policy studies and the outcomes of this General Assembly meeting and concludes by entrusting the Permanent Council to call for a Special Session to be held no later than 2014. From the declaration’s first draft, the United States, among other countries, opposed the Special Session. U.S. officials, while apparently agreeing to the Special Session in the closed-door meeting of foreign ministers, sought until the bitter end to water down the language (allowing for the Permanent Council to decide whether or not to convene a Special Session, among other caveats), ultimately allowing for the declaration to go forward with a footnote laying out U.S. concerns. (As in the case of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs in Vienna, the OAS operates by consensus.) The process laid out in Antigua ensures that drug policy will remain at the top of the hemispheric agenda and provides greater opportunity for Latin American countries to influence the UN General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) on Drugs to be held in 2016.
The Guatemalan government—and in particular Foreign Minister Fernando Carrera—played a crucial role in ensuring the outcome of the Antigua meeting. However, it is important to note that the next two major hemispheric meetings will be in places with governments less inclined to put drug policy alternatives on the agenda: The next meeting of the General Assembly will take place in Paraguay in 2014 and the next Summit of the Americas will be in Panama in 2015; both countries have remained firm U.S. allies on drug policy issues.
Another positive outcome of the General Assembly meeting was growing recognition of the importance of the May 2013 OAS report on “The Drug Problem in the Americas” and the complementary scenarios study. In contrast to the tepid if not outright hostile reaction to the reports in the bi-annual CICAD meeting last May, in Antigua numerous government delegations highlighted that these reports provide an important tool for the regional drug policy debate. The OAS report lays out various alternative drug policies that could be considered by member states, including decriminalization of consumption and legal, regulated markets for cannabis. Of particular significance, it calls for giving countries greater flexibility in implementing drug policy and the need for drug law reforms at both the national and international levels. In other words, the OAS report points to the possibility of reform of the international drug control conventions—an issue some countries would like to see on the agenda of the 2016 UNGASS.
However, in Antigua few governments endorsed any of the alternative policies suggested by the OAS report and how many countries will actually promote the national-level debates mandated in Antigua remains to be seen. It was clear from the individual country speeches on the topic that the “reformist” countries are far out-numbered by those which appear wedded to present policy. And support for or against an alternative approach does not break down on ideological lines. The hardest-line speech supporting a “war on drugs” approach came from Venezuela. Nicaragua, Panama, and El Salvador, among other countries, also spoke out in favor of the status quo. Neither Brazil nor Argentina articulated a reform agenda. Colombia’s foreign minister gave a very diplomatic statement that supported the OAS reports but for the most part focused on Colombia’s “achievements” in coca eradication and cocaine interdiction and what the country is doing to export its security-oriented model to the rest of the region. The Mexican government supported the Special Session, but continued to play its cards very close to its chest.
In terms of countries advocating reform, in the opening ceremony Guatemalan President Pérez Molina gave an impassioned speech on the need for drug policy reform. Ecuador’s foreign minister also criticized the U.S. “war on drugs.” And as was to be expected, the Uruguayan government gave the most articulate speech advocating a public health and human rights-based approach to drug control. It also pointed to the need to discuss the international conventions so as to improve effectiveness and ensure respect for individual and collective rights. In another welcome development, gender issues were highlighted by several delegates and Secretary General José Miguel Insulza and one of the two roundtable discussions organized by the OAS was on “Women and Drugs in the Americas: A diagnosis in the making.”

Low risk of an internal link here- their ev only cites one conflict that the OAS has ever been able to resolve 

Too late to mitigate impacts to warming and sunspot radiation variation is an alt cause
Rahn 11
(Richard W. Rahn, 1/25/2011, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, The Washington Times, “Obama's regulatory reform test,” Lexis)
The Obama Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has ruled that carbon dioxide is a pollutant and, as a result, has been holding up the permitting of new power and manufacturing plants. If this continues, it will cause a significant drop in U.S. economic growth and job creation, yet it will have no measurable benefit. China, India and many other countries are rapidly increasing CO2 emissions, overwhelming whatever actions the United States may take. Even if all new CO2 emissions were stopped globally, it would be decades before there would be even a minor effect on global temperatures. Now, new research is indicating that sunspot activity is much more important than CO2 when it comes to influencing the earth’s temperature. The EPA ban is nothing more than national economic suicide. Let us see if Mr. Obama has the courage to tell the EPA to stop.

US leadership decline inevitable in Latin America – countries are becoming more independent – Bolivia proves.
Crandall, Davidson University Political Science Associate Professor, 11
(Russell, May/June 2011, The Post-American Hemisphere, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 90 Issue: 3, Academic Search Complete. Accessed 7-6-13.  RH)

Yet over the past decade or so, the United States' willingness and ability to exert control in the region have diminished. This has occurred in part because more important issues, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, have forced Latin America down the policymaking food chain. But there is also the indisputable reality that the region itself is now more confident acting on its own. For the most part, this was inevitable, given the end of external and local communist challenges and the shift to an increasingly multilateral world that had room for new powers. Latin America's greater autonomy is both a cause and a result of decreased U.S. influence.
The United States' relationship with Bolivia provides one example of Washington's declining power in the region. Believing that it was time to pay back the Americans for their years of backing his political opponents, Bolivian President Evo Morales expelled the U.S. ambassador and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in 2008 and suspended U.S.-funded democracy programs the following year. A decade or so ago, when Bolivia was a faithful client of the United States, it would have been unimaginable for a Bolivian government to even consider such acts, given the diplomatic and financial consequences of provoking Washington's ire. Yet even the ostensibly hard-line George W. Bush administration responded to Morales' repeated diplomatic insults largely with silence. Morales had gone eyeball to eyeball with Washington and lived to tell about it.

No risk of resource wars – Studies are flawed and economic scarcity is overstated.
Dan Deudney 99, Ass. Prof. of Political Sci. at Johns Hopkins, Contested Grounds: Security and Conflict in the New Environmental Politics, Eds. Deudney and Matthews p 205-6

The hypothesis that states will begin fighting each other as natural resources are depleted and degraded seems intuitively accurate. The popular metaphor of a lifeboat adrift at sea with declining supplies of clean water and rations suggests there will be fewer opportunities for positive-sum gains between actors as resource scarcity grows. Many fears of resource war are derived from the cataclysmic world wars of the first half of the twentieth century Influenced by geopolitical theories that emphasized the importance of land and resources for great power status, Adolf Hitler fashioned Nazi German war aims to achieve resource autonomy. The aggression of Japan was directly related to resource goals: lacking indigenous fuel and minerals, and faced with a slowly tightening embargo by the Western colonial pow ers in Asia, the Japanese invaded Southeast Asia for oil, tin, and rub ber. Although the United States had a richer resource endowment than the Axis powers, fears of shortages and industrial strangulation played a central role in the strategic thinking of American elites about world strategy. During the Cold War, the presence of natural resources in the Third World helped turn this vast area into an arena for East-West conflict. Given this record, the scenario of conflicts over resources playing a powerful role in shaping international order should be taken seriously. However, there are three strong reasons for concluding that the familiar scenarios of resource war are of diminishing plausibility for the foreseeable future. First, the robust character of the world trade system means that states no longer experience resource dependency as a major threat to their military security and political autonomy. During the 1930s, the collapse of the world trading system drove states to pursue economic autarky, but the resource needs of contemporary states are routinely met without territorial control of the resource source. As Ronnie Lipschutz has argued, this means that re source constraints are much less likely to generate interstate violence than in the past. Second, the prospects for resource wars are diminished by the growing difficulty that states face in obtaining resources through territorial conquest. Although the invention of nuclear explosives has made it easy and cheap to annihilate humans and infrastructure in extensive areas, the spread of conventional weaponry and national consciousness has made it very costly for an invader, even one equipped with advanced technology, to subdue a resisting population, as France discovered in Indochina and Algeria, the United States in Vietnam, and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. At the lower levels of violence capability that matter most for conquering and subduing territory; the great powers have lost effective military superiority and are unlikely soon to regain it. Third, nonrenewable resources are, contrary to intuitive logic, becoming less economically scarce. There is strong evidence that the world is entering what H. E. Goeller and Alvin M. Weinberg have labeled the “age of substitutability,” in which industrial technology is increasingly capable of fashioning ubiquitous and plentiful earth materials such as iron, aluminum, silicon, and hydrocarbons into virtually everything needed by modem societies. The most striking manifestation of this trend is that prices for virtually every raw material have been stagnant or falling for the last two decades despite the continued growth in world economic output. In contrast to the expectations widely held during the 1970s that resource scarcity would drive up commodity prices to the benefit of Third World raw material suppliers, prices have fallen.

Diseases are short term – They evolve to be benign.
AMNH 98 The American Museum of Natural History “How did Hyperdisease cause extinctions?” http://www.amnh.org/science/biodiversity/extinction/Day1/disease/Bit2.html

It is well known that lethal diseases can have a profound effect on species' population size and structure. However, it is generally accepted that the principal populational effects of disease are acute--that is, short-term. In other words, although a species many suffer substantial loss from the effects of a given highly infectious disease at a given time, the facts indicate that natural populations tend to bounce back after the period of high losses. Thus, disease as a primary cause of extinction seems implausible. However, this is the normal case, where the disease-provoking pathogen and its host have had a long relationship. Ordinarily, it is not in the pathogens interest to rapidly kill off large numbers of individuals in its host species, because that might imperil its own survival. Disease theorists long ago expressed the idea that pathogens tend to evolve toward a "benign" state of affairs with their hosts, which means in practice that they continue to infect, but tend not to kill (or at least not rapidly). A very good reason for suspecting this to be an accurate view of pathogen-host relationships is that individuals with few or no genetic defenses against a particular pathogen will be maintained within the host population, thus ensuring the pathogen's ultimate survival.

No impact to soil erosion.
Jerry Taylor 93, Director of Natural Resource Studies at the CATO Institute, “The Growing Abundance of Natural Resources” in “Market Liberalism: A Paradigm for the 21st Century”, 1993, http://cato.org/pubs/chapters/marlib21.html

Although conservationists argue that accelerating soil erosion will make those productivity gains short-lived and illusory, the facts speak otherwise. Most of the world's worst soil erosion problems are the result, not of modern high-yield farming, but of attempts to use low-yield, traditional agricultural techniques on fragile soils.30 Studies by the U.S Department of Agriculture, the University of Minnesota's Soil Sciences Department, and economist Pierre Crosson of Resources for the Future all conclude that, at current erosion rates, heavily farmed soils in the United States might lose 3 to 10 percent of their inherent fertility over the next 100 years. Such small losses are sure to be more than offset by continued improvements in agricultural productivity even if no new conservation techniques are adopted. As Crosson noted: The success of the new high-yield technologies strongly suggests that erosion damage to soils in the main crop- producing regions of the country was not and is not as severe as is sometimes claimed. Soil scientists have acknowledged that even severely eroded soil can be restored to high productivity with investments of human skill and other resources, even though they may seem to forget this when they make pronouncements about the erosion threat. Continuation of present rates of erosion throughout most of the next century would pose no serious threat to the productivity of the nation's soils.31

Tournament: Gonzaga | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Juan Diego ZL | Judge:
1NC DA
Democracy coming now-massive momentum
Carbonell, International public affairs consultant, 9
(Nestor, April 2009, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: Engaging Cuba”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/engaging.htm, accessed 7/8/13, KR)
“U.S. Engagement with the Castro Regime Is the Best Hope for a Democratic Cuba.”
Not at all. The hope lies primarily with the silent majority on the island, which is no longer so silent. It includes the brave members of the dissident and human rights movements who remain at the vanguard; the political prisoners who from their cells remain undaunted; the wives of those prisoners parading and demanding the release of their loved ones; intellectuals challenging the Communist Party's rewrite of Cuban history; the priest who sent an open letter to Raúl Castro demanding drastic reforms; tourism workers objecting to stifling taxes; comedians making fun of the government; bloggers debunking the lies spread by the regime; and the Cubans who, during a recent art fair in Havana, went up to the podium, shouted "Freedom!", and were warmly applauded by the audience.
This surging dissident movement, conscious of its rights and determined to be the protagonist of Cuba’s future, needs to be encouraged and supported by the United States and others as Solidarity was in Poland: with sufficient funds and tools for civic, peaceful resistance, and with enlightening radio and TV transmissions that can overcome the regime's jamming and provide the same impetus for change that Radio Free Europe did in the 1980s.
This dissident movement, part of the larger civil society, will eventually coalesce with reformists from within the government's ranks and pave the way for a democratic transition in Cuba. Forget the Castro brothers; these are the Cubans the United States must engage with.
Only the aff reverses the trend toward democratization-new revenue bails out Castro
Carbonell, International public affairs consultant, 9
(Nestor, April 2009, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: Engaging Cuba”, http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/engaging.htm, accessed 7/8/13, KR)

Depends. Some would say the embargo hasn't worked because Cuba's totalitarian regime remains in power. But it's also exhausted and weaker. The regime today faces disgruntled apparatchiks, cracks within its system, a critical economic and financial situation, and growing restlessness and dissent among the population. ¶ The embargo is the only leverage the United States has to ensure a democratic transition, if not under the Castro brothers, then with their successors. Why give up something for nothing? The European Union did that by unilaterally lifting its diplomatic sanctions against the Cuban regime, but Europe's hopes for human rights improvements have so far been in vain. Despite striking out yet again during his trip to Havana last month, European commissioner for development and humanitarian aid, Louis Michel, said that "Cuba-EU relations may go very far." He also hailed the importance of boosting collaboration between both sides. All this while more than 300 Cuban political prisoners remain behind bars under brutal conditions. ¶ Cuba today is virtually bankrupt, with a huge external debt it is unable to serve or repay. According to the Paris Club group of creditors, Cuba owes close to $30 billion to its trading partners -- the second-highest level of indebtedness reported by the group. Given the sharp decline in oil prices, it is unlikely that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez will be able to maintain the current level of subsidies and other financial assistance granted to Cuba (to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars annually). ¶ Under these circumstances, the Castro regime has embarked on a charm offensive with a single objective in mind: a U.S. bailout. The regime is looking to Uncle Sam for additional dollars via American tourists, plus commercial lines of credit and access to international banks and monetary funds for the renegotiation or cancellation of its external debt. That is leverage the United States could guardedly use -- not to provide life support to a battered tyranny, but to secure meaningful changes that will hasten the democratization of Cuba.
Political reforms in Cuba would send a hemispheric democratic signal---inspires reform movements across Latin America
Arias-King 8 – Fredo Arias-King, founder of the academic quarterly Demokratizatsiaya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, analyst with two regional think tanks: CEON (Miami) and CADAL(Buenos Aires), June 20, 2008, “Latin America and European ‘Soft Power’ Geopolitics,” Documentos, Year VI, No. 86, online: http://www.cadal.org/pdf/download.asp?id_nota=2399
Cuba to the rescue? Paradoxically, but quite realistically, Cuba could become a source of inspiration for Latin America. But instead of inspiring misguided Rousseauean romantics, corrupt demagogues and guerrillas, this time the island nation could give hope to those forces attempting to reform the hemisphere. It could also be the main conduit of European soft power into the rest of the region.¶ So far, only Chile has provided (albeit reluctantly) a model for the reformist forces of the region. Costa Rica is also oftentimes touted as an example of a socially sensitive democracy—although it’s still basically poor. All the other examples are too deeply flawed to offer any kind of model. Cuba could use its pending transition from communism to escape the cultural pathologies of latinoamericanismo, just as several other nations did with the even more pernicious ‘Central Europeanism’ of interethnic conflict, militarism, poverty and war. The only democracy east of Switzerland in the interwar period was Tomáš Masaryk’s Czechoslovakia. However, today there are over a dozen functioning democracies in the region—countries that took advantage of good leadership and a social consensus to dramatically reinvent themselves. The transition from communism provides this opportunity, if the elites take advantage of what Leszek Balcerowicz calls the ‘window of opportunity’, before the honeymoon of extraordinary politics gives way to the restraining humdrum of ordinary politics.¶ If a post-authoritarian Cuba decides to go further than a mediocre status-quo antetransition and finds the courage to model itself as a Caribbean Estonia, then the implications for the rest of the hemisphere will be profound. A Cuba with a Havel or a Mart Laar as president, that implements administrative reform, lustration, a flat tax, open trade, rigorous banking reforms, fiscal discipline, low indebtedness, property rights and fair privatisation, that maybe even joins NATOas a way to reform its bloated military—this Cuba could see Asian-style growth rates and a dramatically better rank in the UN’s Human Development Index (as happened with Estonia), thereby catapulting it from pariah to messiah status in the rest of the hemisphere. This is not to say that only in this exceptional case can a Latin American country reinvent itself—there are also cases worldwide of dramatic improvement through ordinary politics, such as Ireland in the 1990s. However, the type of political figures necessary to achieve something akin to the Irish miracle are few and far between here. Nevertheless, we should have faith in the domino effect a Caribbean Estonia could have. Probably the most constructive EU policy toward Latin America would be to use the soft power of its successful democratic transitions to train a cadre of dissidents in Cuba and Venezuela. The decisive economic reforms undertaken by several post-communist countries will be more relevant than those of Spain, whose reforms were mostly implemented during Franco. 

Latin American democracy’s a key model for democracy globally
Fauriol and Weintraub 95 – Georges Fauriol, director of the CSIS Americas Program, and Sidney Weintraub, the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at CSIS and the Dean Rusk Professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, Summer 1995, “U.S. Policy, Brazil, and the Southern Cone,” The Washington Quarterly, lexis
The democracy theme also carries much force in the hemisphere today. The State Department regularly parades the fact that all countries in the hemisphere, save one, now have democratically elected governments. True enough, as long as the definition of democracy is flexible, but these countries turned to democracy mostly of their own volition. It is hard to determine if the United States is using the democracy theme as a club in the hemisphere (hold elections or be excluded) or promoting it as a goal. If as a club, its efficacy is limited to this hemisphere, as the 1994 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Indonesia demonstrated in its call for free trade in that region, replete with nondemocratic nations, by 2020. Following that meeting, Latin Americans are somewhat cynical as to whether the United States really cares deeply about promoting democracy if this conflicts with expanding exports.¶ Yet this triad of objectives -- economic liberalization and free trade, democratization, and sustainable development/ alleviation of poverty -- is generally accepted in the hemisphere. The commitment to the latter two varies by country, but all three are taken as valid. All three are also themes expounded widely by the United States, but with more vigor in this hemisphere than anywhere else in the developing world. Thus, failure to advance on all three in Latin America will compromise progress elsewhere in the world.
Extinction
Diamond 95 - Larry Diamond, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, December 1995, Promoting Democracy in the 1990s, http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm
OTHER THREATS This hardly exhausts the lists of threats to our security and well-being in the coming years and decades. In the former Yugoslavia nationalist aggression tears at the stability of Europe and could easily spread. The flow of illegal drugs intensifies through increasingly powerful international crime syndicates that have made common cause with authoritarian regimes and have utterly corrupted the institutions of tenuous, democratic ones. Nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons continue to proliferate. The very source of life on Earth, the global ecosystem, appears increasingly endangered. Most of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated with or aggravated by the weakness or absence of democracy, with its provisions for legality, accountability, popular sovereignty, and openness. LESSONS OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY The experience of this century offers important lessons. Countries that govern themselves in a truly democratic fashion do not go to war with one another. They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandize themselves or glorify their leaders. Democratic governments do not ethnically "cleanse" their own populations, and they are much less likely to face ethnic insurgency. Democracies do not sponsor terrorism against one another. They do not build weapons of mass destruction to use on or to threaten one another. Democratic countries form more reliable, open, and enduring trading partnerships. In the long run they offer better and more stable climates for investment. They are more environmentally responsible because they must answer to their own citizens, who organize to protest the destruction of their environments. They are better bets to honor international treaties since they value legal obligations and because their openness makes it much more difficult to breach agreements in secret. Precisely because, within their own borders, they respect competition, civil liberties, property rights, and the rule of law, democracies are the only reliable foundation on which a new world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

1NC – DA 2
China’s economic reform push is underway and succeeding, the only question is leveraging political capital to overcome opposition

Kroeber 11/17
(Arthur R Kroeber is Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings-Tsinghua Center, “Xi Jinping's Ambitious Agenda for Economic Reform in China”, Opinion, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/11/17-xi-jinping-economic-agenda-kroeber)

The much anticipated Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress closed its four-day session last Tuesday. A relatively bland initial communiqué was followed today by a detailed decision document spelling out major initiatives including a relaxation of the one-child policy, the elimination of the repressive “re-education through labor” camps, and a host of reforms to the taxation and state-owned enterprise systems. Today’s blizzard of specific reform pledges allays earlier concerns that the new government led by party chief Xi Jinping and premier Li Keqiang would fail to set major policy goals. But is this enough to answer the three biggest questions analysts have had since Xi and Li ascended a year ago?¶ Those questions are, first, do Xi and his six colleagues on the Politburo standing committee have an accurate diagnosis of China’s structural economic and social ailments? Second, do they have sensible plans for addressing these problems? And third, do they have the political muscle to push reforms past entrenched resistance by big state owned enterprises (SOEs), tycoons, local government officials and other interest groups whose comfortable positions would be threatened by change? Until today, the consensus answers to the first two questions were “we’re not really sure,” and to the third, “quite possibly not.”¶ These concerns are misplaced. It is clear that the full 60-point “Decision on Several Major Questions About Deepening Reform”1 encompasses an ambitious agenda to restructure the roles of the government and the market. Combined with other actions from Xi’s first year in office – notably a surprisingly bold anti-corruption campaign – the reform program reveals Xi Jinping as a leader far more powerful and visionary than his predecessor Hu Jintao. He aims to redefine the basic functions of market and government, and in so doing establish himself as China’s most significant leader since Deng Xiaoping. Moreover, he is moving swiftly to establish the bureaucratic machinery that will enable him to overcome resistance and achieve his aims. It remains to be seen whether Xi can deliver on these grand ambitions, and whether his prescription will really prove the cure for China’s mounting social and economic ills. But one thing is for sure: Xi cannot be faulted for thinking too small.

The plan causes a conservative reaction against reform – US engagement is seen as economic containment 

Zhao, professor of Chinese Politics at the University of Denver, 13
Suisheng, 6-13, Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, “Chinese Foreign Policy as a Rising Power to find its Rightful Place”, June, http://sam.gov.tr/tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/perceptions_2013_spring.pdf#page=105, accessed 7-2-13, AR

Obama’s presidency during a deep ¶ financial meltdown provided an ¶ opportunity to test this thesis. Many ¶ Chinese assumed that a weakened U.S., ¶ heavily in debt to China, would have to ¶ make more concessions to China’s core ¶ interests. This assumption seemed to be ¶ confirmed by the first overseas trip in ¶ late February 2009 of a duly penitent ¶ U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, ¶ who once boasted how strongly she ¶ had emphasised human rights during ¶ her 1995 visit to Beijing, but who now ¶ suggested that China’s human rights ¶ records should not get in the way of ¶ cooperation on the financial crisis and ¶ security issues. As a Chinese scholar ¶ noted, after this visit, many Chinese ¶ thought that the U.S. ‘should respond ¶ nicely to China’ because China did ¶ ‘favours for the U.S. on a couple of fronts ¶ – such as investing in its bonds and ¶ jointly stimulating the world economy’. ¶ These Chinese were, therefore, frustrated ¶ at the end of the year by ‘the rigid ¶ U.S. position’ that ‘does not reflect the ¶ nature of the new Sino-U.S. symbiosis and fails to recognise Beijing’s growing international clout’.23 For these Chinese, ¶ the troubled relationship with the Obama ¶ Administration once again confirmed ¶ that due to the structural conflict thesis, ¶ the U.S. engagement policy is simply ¶ another face to cover its hidden agenda ¶ of preventing China from rising as a peer ¶ power. Although many Americans cited ¶ China’s illiberal political system as one of ¶ the main points of friction and pressed ¶ China on the issues of human rights and ¶ democracy, the Chinese have wondered ¶ whether or not conflict would remain ¶ and grow starker even if China became ¶ democratic, as the U.S. would not want ¶ to see China, democratic or not, to be ¶ richer and stronger.¶ Second, many Chinese policymakers ¶ were frustrated by what they perceived ¶ as a Western conspiracy to slow down ¶ China’s rise by blocking China’s ¶ global search for natural resources and ¶ acquisition of foreign assets. China’s ¶ rapid economic growth brought about ¶ an unprecedented resource vulnerability. ¶ In 2003 China overtook Japan as the ¶ second largest oil consumer next to the ¶ U.S., and in 2004 overtook the United ¶ States as the world’s biggest consumer ¶ of grain, meat, coal and steel. China, ¶ therefore, had to search for resources ¶ overseas to sustain its rise. Chinese ¶ policymakers, however, were frustrated ¶ by the perceived attempts by the U.S. and other Western countries to block China in its global search for resources.¶ One of the most often cited examples ¶ is the failure of China National Offshore ¶ Oil Corporation (CNOOC)’s US $18.5 ¶ billion business takeover bid for the ¶ California-based oil firm Unocal Corp in ¶ early 2005, because of unusual political ¶ intervention from the U.S. Congress, ¶ which considered that the CNOOC ¶ takeover of Unocal would make it a ¶ state-run entity, and constitute a threat ¶ to U.S. national security. As a result, the ¶ Chevron Corporation, the second largest ¶ U.S. petroleum company, acquired ¶ Unocal for US $17 billion, US $1.5 ¶ billion less than CNOOC’s offer.24 This ¶ setback, perceived as ignominious by the ¶ Chinese leadership, was repeated in 2009 ¶ when the Anglo-Australian mining giant ¶ Rio Tinto walked away from a tentative ¶ agreement reached in 2008 with China ¶ Aluminum Corp (Chinalco), which ¶ had offered to pay US $19.5 billion to ¶ increase its stake in the global mining ¶ giant. The deal would have ranked as the ¶ largest-ever foreign corporate investment ¶ by a Chinese company. But to Beijing’s ¶ frustration, Rio Tinto rejected the deal, ¶ citing fierce shareholder opposition and ¶ the skepticism of Australian regulators ¶ because “‘there are lots of Aussies in ¶ high political places who don’t want ¶ ... land and resources sold to China’.25¶ The rejection was ‘a blow to China’s ambitions to buy access to raw materials crucial for its economic growth’.

Failure of the reform package causes CCP collapse

Herd 12
(Dr Graeme Herd is a Senior Programme Advisor and Senior Fellow, Leadership in Conflict Management Programme and Security Policy at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “The Red Dynasty’s Game of Thrones: Xi Jinping’s Trilemma?”, November 27, http://www.gcsp.ch/Leadership-in-Conflict-Management/Programme-News/Web-Editorial-The-Red-Dynasty-s-Game-of-Thrones-Xi-Jinping-s-Trilemma)

The resolution of Deng Xiaoping central dilemma generated a set of structural and systemic challenges which have morphed into a ticking-time bomb of a trilemma. For the Party and State to survive, Xi Jinping must address three tasks: curbing corruption, maintaining a communist party monopoly on power and rebalancing the economy from export to domestic consumption-led growth model to maintain performance legitimacy. Xi Jinping can push ahead on two fronts but not all three: if the Party curbs corruption and rebalances the economy, it will not be able to maintain its monopoly on power; if it attempts to rebalance the economy and maintain its monopoly control over politics, it will not curb corruption; if it maintains the existing political structure and lives with corruption, it will not be able to rebalance the economy. In effect, if Xi Jinping opts for business as usual – rhetorical anti-corruption window dressing but no fundamental change - his task will be to manage escalating tensions generated by the trilemma, to contain rather than resolves the resultant social explosions.¶ “Zhenxing zhonghua!” or “revitalise China!” supplies the ‘vision thing’, but trust in a better future is a perishable commodity. Time is not neutral: the longer the Chinese leadership waits to address this interlocking agenda the more vested interests become entrenched. In turn, the harder and more insurmountable the task of reform becomes and the weaker the moral legitimacy and ability of the CCP to lead in the face of growing popular anger and resentment. Does Xi Jinping understand that political reform is the golden key that unlocks a stable future? Does he have the will and skill to build and then lead a consensus to that end, even if the choice is between preserving a 91 year old CCP or a 63 year old PRC?¶ If a pragmatic, cautious and conservative compromise candidate can complete Deng Xiaoping’s historic transition by aligning China’s ‘socialist market economy’ with a new ‘socialist political democracy’, his generation will be the PRC’s fifth in name, third in impact. If he fails, and China’s own history is any judge, forced system-change is inevitable; the Red Dynasty’s end a certainty, and its successor a known unknown.

CCP collapse causes a nuclear civil war – risks extinction
Yee and Storey 2002
(Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University, and Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 2002 (The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality, RoutledgeCurzon, pg 5 bham))

The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of political and economic collapse in the PRC, resulting in territorial fragmentation, civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries. Naturally, any or all of these scenarios would have a profoundly negative impact on regional stability. Today the Chinese leadership faces a raft of internal problems, including the increasing political demands of its citizens, a growing population, a shortage of natural resources and a deterioration in the natural environment caused by rapid industrialisation and pollution. These problems are putting a strain on the central government's ability to govern effectively. Political disintegration or a Chinese civil war might result in millions of Chinese refugees seeking asylum in neighbouring countries. Such an unprecedented exodus of refugees from a collapsed PRC would no doubt put a severe strain on the limited resources of China's neighbours. A fragmented China could also result in another nightmare scenario - nuclear weapons falling into the hands of irresponsible local provincial leaders or warlords.'2 From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.

T
Economic engagement includes only tangible trade and financial benefits --- including political, military, or cultural engagement explodes the topic
Haass 00 – Richard Haass and Meghan O’Sullivan, Senior Fellows in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 5-6

Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from which to choose. Economic engagement might offer tangible incentives such as export credits, investment insurance or promotion, access to technology, loans, and economic aid.’2 Other equally useful economic incentives involve the removal of penalties, whether they be trade embargoes, investment bans, or high tariffs that have impeded economic relations between the United States and the target country. In addition, facilitated entry into the global economic arena and the institutions that govern it rank among the most potent incentives in today’s global market.’
Similarly, political engagement can involve the lure of diplomatic recognition, access to regional or international institutions, or the scheduling of summits between leaders—or the termination of these benefits. Military engagement could involve the extension of International Military Educational Training (IMET) both to strengthen respect for civilian authority and human rights among a country’s armed forces and, more feasibly, to establish relationships between Americans and young foreign mffitary officers.’4 These areas of engagement are likely to involve, working with state institutions, while cultural or civil society engagement is likely to entail building people-to-people contacts. Funding nongovernmental organizations, facilitating the flow of remittances, establishing postal and telephone links between the United States and the target country, and promoting the exchange of students, tourists, and other nongovernmental people between the countries are some of the incentives that might be offered under a policy of cultural engagement.
This brief overview of the various forms of engagement illuminates the choices open to policymakers. The plethora of options signals the flexibility of engagement as a foreign policy strategy and, in doing so, reveals one of the real strengths of engagement. At the same time, it also suggests the urgent need for considered analysis of this strategy. The purpose of this book is to address this need by deriving insights and lessons from past episodes of engagement and proposing guidelines for the future use of engagement strategies. Throughout the book, two critical questions are entertained. First, when should policymakers consider engagement? A strategy of engagement may serve certain foreign policy objectives better than others. Specific characteristics of a target country may make it more receptive to a strategy of engagement and the incentives offered under it; in other cases, a country's domestic politics may effectively exclude the use of engagement strategies. Second, how should engagement strategies be managed to maximize the chances of success? Shedding light on how policymakers achieved, or failed, in these efforts in the past is critical in an evaluation of engagement strategies. By focusing our analysis, these questions and concerns help produce a framework to guide the use of engagement strategies in the upcoming decades.
Voting issue for limits and ground --- non-economic areas are huge, overstretch research burdens and require completely different strategies- sanctions on arms sales aren’t economic engagement- the aff is extra topical- default to competing interpretations
CP 1
The United States federal government should sign a science and technology agreement with Cuba.
Science cooperation solves Latin American relations, disaster preparedness, tropical diseases, biotechnology and biodiversity
Pastrana and Clegg, 08. Foreign Secretary of the Academia de Ciencias de Cuba, Foreign Secretary of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and Donald Bren Professor of Biological Sciences, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the School of Biological Sciences, University of California (Sergio, Michael, “U.S.-Cuban Scientific Relations”. 7/3/13. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/322/5900/345.full?ijkey=3aK7XuLHCJLJ.andkeytype=refandsiteid=sci. KJ)

In a few years, the two oldest national academies of science in the world outside of Europe—those of the United States and Cuba—will celebrate their 150th anniversaries. Yet despite the proximity of both nations and many common scientific interests, the U.S. embargo on exchanges with Cuba, which began in 1961 and is now based on the 1996 U.S. Helms-Burton Act and subsequent regulations, has largely blocked scientific exchange. It's time to establish a new scientific relationship, not only to address shared challenges in health, climate, agriculture, and energy, but also to start building a framework for expanded cooperation. ¶ Restrictions on U.S.-Cuba scientific cooperation deprive both research communities of opportunities that could benefit our societies, as well as others in the hemisphere, particularly in the Caribbean. Cuba is scientifically proficient in disaster management and mitigation, vaccine production, and epidemiology. Cuban scientists could benefit from access to research facilities that are beyond the capabilities of any developing country, and the U.S. scientific community could benefit from high-quality science being done in Cuba. For example, Cuba typically sits in the path of hurricanes bound for the U.S. mainland that create great destruction, as was the case with Hurricane Katrina and again last month with Hurricane Ike. Cuban scientists and engineers have learned how to protect threatened populations and minimize damage. Despite the category 3 rating of Hurricane Ike when it struck Cuba, there was less loss of life after a 3-day pounding than that which occurred when it later struck Texas as a category 2 hurricane. Sharing knowledge in this area would benefit everybody.¶ Another major example where scientific cooperation could save lives is Cuba's extensive research on tropical diseases, such as dengue fever. This viral disease is epidemic throughout the tropics, notably in the Americas, and one of the first recorded outbreaks occurred in Philadelphia in the 18th century. Today, one of the world's most outstanding research centers dedicated to dengue fever is in Cuba, and although it actively cooperates with Latin America and Africa, there is almost no interaction with U.S. scientists. Dengue fever presents a threat to the U.S. mainland, and sharing knowledge resources to counter outbreaks of the disease would be an investment in the health security of both peoples. ¶ Cuba has also made important strides in biotechnology, including the production of several important vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, and its research interests continue to expand in diverse fields, ranging from drug addiction treatment to the preservation of biodiversity. Cuban scientists are engaged in research cooperation with many countries, including the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico, China, and India. Yet there is no program of cooperation with any U.S. research institution. ¶ The value system of science—openness, shared communication, integrity, and a respect for evidence—provides a framework for open engagement and could encourage evidence-based approaches that cross from science into the social, economic, and political arenas. Beyond allowing for the mutual leveraging of knowledge and resources, scientific contacts could build important cultural and social links among peoples. A recent Council on Foreign Relations report argues that the United States needs to revamp its engagement with Latin America because it is no longer the only significant force in this hemisphere. U.S. policies that are seen as unfairly penalizing Cuba, including the imposition of trade limitations that extend into scientific relations, continue to undermine U.S. standing in the entire region, especially because neither Cuba nor any other Latin American country imposes such restrictions. ¶ As a start, we urge that the present license that permits restricted travel to Cuba by scientists, as dictated by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, be expanded so as to allow direct cooperation in research. At the same time, Cuba should favor increased scientific exchanges. Allowing scientists to fully engage will not only support progress in science, it may well favor positive interactions elsewhere to promote human well-being. The U.S. embargo on Cuba has hindered exchanges for the past 50 years. Let us celebrate our mutual anniversaries by starting a new era of scientific cooperation.
CP 2
CP: The United States federal government should remove sanctions against Cuba except for those pertaining to cruise ship related industries.
Pollution is down in Havana Bay, and only a handful of cruise ships dock per year.
Jara, writer for News Daily, 13
Fransisco, 5/9/13, News Daily, “Havana Bay Slowly Reclaims Historic Splendor”, http://www.newsdaily.com/environment/3dd3a5fa85865cd1d45db819a88df5aa/havana-bay-slowly-reclaims-historic-splendor, NCM

Pelicans and their prey are back in Havana Bay in a sign that efforts to clean up the historic and once splendid port of the Cuban capital are paying off. "They disappeared long ago but because of the cleanup the fish have returned -- and therefore so have the pelicans," said fisherman Eduardo Lozano who spends every day out on the sheltered expanse of water. The presence of the big-beaked creatures gives credence to local expert claims that pollution in the bay -- once a base for Spanish galleons that returned to Europe laden with Latin American treasure -- has been reduced by 50 to 60 percent over the past few years. The cleanup program was launched back in 1998, with a working group known as GTE-BH tracing the contamination to a hundred sources, according to the official Cuban newspaper Trabajadores. Last year alone, according to a recent article, dumping of pollutants was scaled back by 30 percent compared to 2011.
"Today, crossing the bay by ferry to go from the old town to the Regla neighborhood (to the south of the bay) is a pleasure when just a few years ago the stench was unbearable," Trabajadores said. Three waterways that make their way through populated parts of southern Havana -- and are polluted by various industries -- flow into the bay, which spans 5.2 square kilometers and features fortresses called El Morro and La Cabana. And then there's the Nico Lopez refinery that is due to be shuttered after billowing black smoke into the Havana sky for about 60 years. It's all part of a plan to transfer all maritime traffic to Mariel, 50 kilometers (31 miles) to the west of Havana, where a vast port is being built, financed by Brazilian capital and realized in large part by construction giant Odebrecht at an investment of about a billion dollars.
The goal is to clear Havana's port of eyesore tankers and container ships to make space for cruise ships and pleasure boats instead, in an attempt to create a tourist destination that takes advantage of the historical setting. For that reason, restoration work has started on quays in the old town under the leadership of the Office of the Historian. Old customs buildings are also being renovated while tourism and pedestrian zones are being set up. It remains to be seen if the effort will have the desired effect. In light of the decades-old US embargo against the Communist-run island, cruise ships that do dock in Havana each year can be counted on one hand, and the few pleasure boats that make it are relegated to a decrepit marina to the west of the capital. Americans technically are allowed to visit Cuba, but they are required to seek special US government permission to go to the Caribbean island nation.
Both the Cuban and American private sectors are making plans for major tourism in the status quo- they’re just waiting for the embargo to be lifted so they can capitalize on the opportunity
ETN, news organization, 09
ETN: Global Travel Industry News, 9/18/09, “Is Cuba Ready for US Tourists?”, http://www.eturbonews.com/11774/cuba-ready-us-tourists, NCM

At first glance, Cuba's business potential looks as pretty as its postcards: A nearly five-decades-long embargo has made the island just 90 miles from Florida's coast hungry for nearly every good and service a U.S. company might provide. But the flip side tells a different story about the most populous country in the Caribbean: that of a cash-strapped state with crumbling infrastructure and an economy in the stranglehold of an authoritarian government. Those conflicting realities, however, are not stopping entrepreneurs from planning for the day when the embargo is lifted -- or from taking advantage of business opportunities already permissible under the embargo. Tourism and telecom firms have been energized by recent regulations promising greater access; port operators and oil drillers are gearing up for a rush; and lawyers and consultants are lining up for a piece of the action. "Every sector is going to be important," said Richard Waltzer, the chairman of the Havana Group, a consulting firm that helps U.S. businesses lay the groundwork for the day sanctions are lifted. "This is an island that really hasn't developed." But in the short term, Waltzer said, the "building of hotels and tourism infrastructure is going to be the new economy for Cuba." The Tourism Draw
With its broad beaches, stunning colonial architecture and world-class artists, it's not hard to imagine the island as a tourist mecca. For Cuba, more foreign visitors would provide access to the quick cash that it needs to jump-start the economy. The island received 2.3 million visitors in 2008, according to the Caribbean Tourism Organization. If the U.S. government dropped its travel restrictions entirely, rather than just for Cuban Americans -- and Cuba proved as big a draw for American tourists as Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, or Cancun, Mexico -- the island could expect more than one million additional visitors a year. Mere curiosity -- seeing '58 Oldsmobiles and giant Che portraits on buildings -- could lure many, said Damian Fernandez, a longtime Cuban policy expert and provost of Purchase College State University of New York.
"Post-embargo, the biggest, fastest impact would be in tourism," he said. But it's unclear if Cuba could handle the influx. The island has about 50,000 hotel rooms, about as many as Miami-Dade County, according to a report released by the Cuba Committee of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce. And while it is making improvements, its phone system, electricity and water-supply infrastructure are struggling. Cuba's Old World feel is part of its charm, but many visitors are also looking for modern amenities, said Mark Watson, 30, a tourist from Canada who recently visited the island. Compared with other Caribbean tourist destinations, he found the island's food mediocre, prices expensive and his hotel, the Tryp Habana Libre, where rooms start at $168 a night, outdated and shabby. "I'm not sorry I came here," he said. "But I will never be back." The infrastructure woes may not only scare away visitors but stunt the growth of other tourism enterprises, said Tim Gallagher, vice president for public relations at Carnival Cruise Lines. "You can take people to the islands, but you have to have a way to transport them once they are there and have tours for them," he said from the company's Miami offices. "Whenever Cuba does finally open up, it will take a while to put all that into place." Gallagher said Carnival will develop a Cuba strategy if and when visiting the island is viable. "It has been so many years that people have been saying that Cuba will open up, but no one really knows when that will happen," he said. "At the time they do, then we are certainly interested." The infrastructure challenge is not easily overcome. "It's a chicken-and-egg problem," said Jorge Pinon, a longtime Cuba analyst. "Cuba needs the infrastructure to attract investors, but it can't pay for the infrastructure until it gets the investors." Retirement Haven?
One way to skirt the issue is to look at businesses that might be created in self-sufficient compounds, said Leo Guzman, founder of the Guzman and Co. investment bank and a former board member of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp.
Cuba's mild weather, proximity to the United States and surplus of trained doctors and nurses could make it ideal for Cuban-American retirees and those requiring long-term medical care, he said. Such enclaves might also be more likely to win approval from the Cuban government, he said. Cuban authorities would "want the Cuban Americans in a community as opposed to interspersed in the community, to lower social friction," he said. "And from a political perspective, retirees are the kind of people that the Cuban government would want, i.e. too old to cause problems."
Tourism directly leads to Cuban ecosystem collapse
Barclay, writer for TreeHugger, 8
Eliza, 1/10/8, TreeHugger, “Cuba’s Environment Threatened As Embargo’s End Looms”, http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/cubas-environment-threatened-as-embargos-end-looms.html, NCM

The New York Times had a piece recently on what the end of the United States' economic embargo against Cuba could mean for the Caribbean nation's impressive successes in environmental protection. In a report last year, the World Wildlife Fund said that Cuba's beaches, mangroves, reefs, seagrass beds and other habitats are most at risk by "the prospect of sudden and massive growth in mass tourism when the U.S. embargo lifts." Cuba has done "what we should have done — identify your hot spots of biodiversity and set them aside," Oliver Houck, a professor of environmental law at Tulane University Law School, told the Times. Cuba has the most biologically diverse populations of freshwater fish in the region. Its relatively large underwater coastal shelves are crucial for numerous marine species, including some whose larvae can be carried by currents into waters of the United States, The story notes that what may prove to be decisive once the embargo is removed is Cuba's lacks of a grassroots environmental movement. In other words, so far, the country has few environmental groups or activists to stand up to what will likely be powerful interests in tourism development. 

The Caribbean is a biodiversity hotspot
CEPF ‘10
(quoting Mittermeier -- the same author that establishes the “hotspot” thesis and writes our impact ev. , Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. CEPF is the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund – “Ecosystem Profile: THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOT” – Prepared by: BirdLife International¶ in collaboration with:¶ Durrell Wildlife Conservation¶ Trust / Bath University¶ The New York Botanical Garden¶ and with the technical support of:¶ Conservation International-Center¶ for Applied Biodiversity Science; assistance for this report was offered by 100 international and non-profit organizations. Jan 15th – http://www.cepf.net/Documents/Final_Caribbean_EP.pdf)

The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is one of the  world’s greatest centers of biodiversity and¶ endemism, yet its biodiversity and the natural¶ services it provides are highly threatened. Although¶ the islands have protected areas systems, most ar¶ e inadequately managed and important areas lack¶ protection. This strategy will ensure that CEPF¶ funds are employed in the most effective manner¶ and generate significant conservation results that¶ not only complement the actions of other¶ stakeholders but also enable significant expansion¶ of strategic conservation for the benefit of all.¶ Everyone depends on Earth’s ecosystems and their life-sustaining benefits, such as clean air,¶ fresh water and healthy soils. Founded in 2000,¶ the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF)¶ has become a global leader in en¶ abling civil society to participate in and benefit from conserving¶ some of the world’s most critical ecosystems. C¶ EPF is a joint initiative of l'Agence Française de¶ Développement, Conservation International, the Gl¶ obal Environment Facility, the Government of¶ Japan, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the World Bank. As one of the¶ founding partners, Conservation International ad¶ ministers the global program through a CEPF¶ Secretariat.¶ CEPF provides grants for nongovern¶ mental and other private organizations to help protect¶ biodiversity hotspots, Earth’s most biologically¶ rich and threatened areas. The convergence of¶ critical areas for conservation with millions¶ of people who are impoverished and highly¶ dependent on healthy ecosystems is more ev¶ ident in the hotspots than anywhere else.¶ CEPF is unique among funding mechanisms in th¶ at it focuses on biological areas rather than¶ political boundaries and examines conservation th¶ reats on a landscape-scale basis. A fundamental¶ purpose of CEPF is to ensure that civil society is¶ engaged in efforts to conserve biodiversity in¶ the hotspots, and to this end, CEPF provides ci¶ vil society with an agile and flexible funding¶ mechanism complementing funding currently¶ available to government agencies.¶ CEPF promotes working alliances among commun¶ ity groups, nongovernmental organizations¶ (NGOs), government, academic institutions and¶ the private sector, combining unique capacities¶ and eliminating duplication of efforts for a¶ comprehensive approach to conservation. CEPF¶ targets trans-boundary cooperation for areas rich of¶ biological value that straddle national borders¶ or in areas where a regional approach may be more effective than a national approach.¶ A recent, updated analysis reveals the existence of¶ 34 biodiversity hotspots, each holding at least¶ 1,500 endemic plant species, and having lost at¶ least 70 percent of its original habitat extent¶ (Mittermeier¶ et al¶ . 2005). The Caribbean islands qualify  as one of these global biodiversity¶ hotspots by virtue of their high endemicity and high degree of threat.¶ The Caribbean Islands Hotspot is exceptionally important for global biodiversity conservation.¶ The hotspot includes important ecosystems, fro¶ m montane cloud forests to coral reefs, and¶ supports populations of unique species amounting to at least 2 percent of the world’s total¶ species. 

Biodiversity in specific hotspots solves extinction -- key to ag, medicine, and ecosystems
Mittermeier ‘11
(et al, Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He has conducted fieldwork for over 30 years on three continents and in more than 20 countries in mainly tropical locations. He is the President of Conservation International and he is considered an expert on biological diversity. Mittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species. From Chapter One of the book Biodiversity Hotspots – F.E. Zachos and J.C. Habel (eds.), DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011. This evidence also internally references Norman Myers, a very famous British environmentalist specialising in biodiversity. available at: http://www.academia.edu/1536096/Global_biodiversity_conservation_the_critical_role_of_hotspots)

Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is¶ irreversible. Human activities have elevated the rate of species extinctions to a¶ thousand or more times the natural background rate (Pimm et al. 1995). What are the¶ consequences of this loss? Most obvious among them may be the lost opportunity¶ for future resource use. Scientists have discovered a mere fraction of Earth’s species¶ (perhaps fewer than 10, or even 1) and understood the biology of even fewer¶ (Novotny et al. 2002). As species vanish, so too does the health security of every¶ human. Earth’s species are a vast genetic storehouse that may harbor a cure for¶ cancer, malaria, or the next new pathogen – cures waiting to be discovered.¶ Compounds initially derived from wild species account for more than half of all¶ commercial medicines – even more in developing nations (Chivian and Bernstein¶ 2008). Natural forms, processes, and ecosystems provide blueprints and inspiration¶ for a growing array of new materials, energy sources, hi-tech devices, and¶ other innovations (Benyus 2009). The current loss of species has been compared¶ to burning down the world’s libraries without knowing the content of 90 or¶ more of the books. With loss of species, we lose the ultimate source of our crops¶ and the genes we use to improve agricultural resilience, the inspiration for¶ manufactured products, and the basis of the structure and function of the ecosystems¶ that support humans and all life on Earth (McNeely et al. 2009). Above and beyond¶ material welfare and livelihoods, biodiversity contributes to security, resiliency,¶ and freedom of choices and actions (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005).¶ Less tangible, but no less important, are the cultural, spiritual, and moral costs¶ inflicted by species extinctions. All societies value species for their own sake,¶ and wild plants and animals are integral to the fabric of all the world’s cultures¶ (Wilson 1984). The road to extinction is made even more perilous to people by the loss of the broader ecosystems that underpin our livelihoods, communities, and economies(McNeely et al.2009). The loss of coastal wetlands and mangrove forests, for example, greatly exacerbates both human mortality and economic damage from tropical cyclones (Costanza et al.2008; Das and Vincent2009), while disease outbreaks such as the 2003 emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in East Asia have been directly connected to trade in wildlife for human consumption(Guan et al.2003). Other consequences of biodiversity loss, more subtle but equally damaging, include the deterioration of Earth’s natural capital. Loss of biodiversity on land in the past decade alone is estimated to be costing the global economy $500 billion annually (TEEB2009). Reduced diversity may also reduce resilience of ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them. For example, more diverse coral reef communities have been found to suffer less from the diseases that plague degraded reefs elsewhere (Raymundo et al.2009). As Earth’s climate changes, the roles of species and ecosystems will only increase in their importance to humanity (Turner et al.2009).¶ In many respects, conservation is local. People generally care more about the biodiversity in the place in which they live. They also depend upon these ecosystems the most – and, broadly speaking, it is these areas over which they have the most control. Furthermore, we believe that all biodiversity is important and that every nation, every region, and every community should do everything possible to conserve their living resources. So, what is the importance of setting global priorities? Extinction is a global phenomenon, with impacts far beyond nearby administrative borders. More practically, biodiversity, the threats to it, and the ability of countries to pay for its conservation vary around the world. The vast majority of the global conservation budget – perhaps 90 – originates in and is spent in economically wealthy countries (James et al.1999). It is thus critical that those globally ?exible funds available – in the hundreds of millions annually – be guided by systematic priorities if we are to move deliberately toward a global goal of reducing biodiversity loss.¶ The establishment of priorities for biodiversity conservation is complex, but can be framed as a single question. Given the choice, where should action toward reducing the loss of biodiversity be implemented ?rst? The ?eld of conservation planning addresses this question and revolves around a framework of vulnerability and irreplaceability (Margules and Pressey2000). Vulnerability measures the risk to the species present in a region – if the species and ecosystems that are highly threatened are not protected now, we will not get another chance in the future. Irreplaceability measures the extent to which spatial substitutes exist for securing biodiversity. The number of species alone is an inadequate indication of conserva-tion priority because several areas can share the same species. In contrast, areas with high levels of endemism are irreplaceable. We must conserve these places because the unique species they contain cannot be saved elsewhere. Put another way, biodiversity is not evenly distributed on our planet. It is heavily concentrated in certain areas, these areas have exceptionally high concentrations of endemic species found nowhere else, and many (but not all) of these areas are the areas at greatest risk of disappearing because of heavy human impact.¶ Myers’ seminal paper (Myers1988) was the ?rst application of the principles of irreplaceability and vulnerability to guide conservation planning on a global scale. Myers described ten tropical forest “hotspots” on the basis of extraordinary plant endemism and high levels of habitat loss, albeit without quantitative criteria for the designation of “hotspot” status. A subsequent analysis added eight additional hotspots, including four from Mediterranean-type ecosystems (Myers 1990).After adopting hotspots as an institutional blueprint in 1989, Conservation Interna-tional worked with Myers in a ?rst systematic update of the hotspots. It introduced two strict quantitative criteria: to qualify as a hotspot, a region had to contain at least 1,500 vascular plants as endemics (¶ ¶ 0.5 of the world’s total), and it had to have 30 or less of its original vegetation (extent of historical habitat cover)remaining. These efforts culminated in an extensive global review (Mittermeier et al.1999) and scienti?c publication (Myers et al.2000) that introduced seven new hotspots on the basis of both the better-de?ned criteria and new data. A second systematic update (Mittermeier et al.2004) did not change the criteria, but revisited the set of hotspots based on new data on the distribution of species and threats, as well as genuine changes in the threat status of these regions. That update rede?ned several hotspots, such as the Eastern Afromontane region, and added several others that were suspected hotspots but for which suf?cient data either did not exist or were not accessible to conservation scientists outside of those regions. Sadly, it uncovered another region – the East Melanesian Islands – which rapid habitat destruction had in a short period of time transformed from a biodiverse region that failed to meet the “less than 30 of original vegetation remaining” criterion to a genuine hotspot.

Advantage

OAS ineffective- no political power, long decision making and application, and can’t impose democracy
Lee 12 – Senior Production Editor Council on Foreign Relations (Briana, Council on Foreign Relations, “The Organization of American States, April 13, 2012, http://www.cfr.org/latin-america-and-the-caribbean/organization-american-states/p27945)

The Organization of American States serves as a body for regional integration and political, economic, and social cooperation among its thirty-five member states. The OAS has undertaken multiple initiatives to monitor human rights, provide electoral oversight, promote development, and enhance security in the Americas. However, while the organization has been recognized for its value in providing information and serving as a forum for high-level discussion, it has also come under fire for the weakness of its political power, ineffectiveness in decision-making, and inconsistency in applying its democratic principles to states. Ideological polarization and mistrust of the OAS have prompted doubts over its relevance in the region, spurring the creation of alternative platforms for regional integration.
Questions of Effectiveness and Relevance
CFR's Shannon K. O'Neil says the OAS's role as a forum for regular, high-level discussions on issues facing the hemisphere is one of its major strengths. Several other analysts have praised the Inter-American Human Rights Commission as a crucial, objective platform for human rights litigation. However, many state leaders and policymakers have also heavily criticized the OAS for its institutional weakness. Christopher Sabatini, senior policy director for the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, says the OAS as a political entity "has declined precipitously in recent years."
One of the OAS's major administrative constraints is its consensus model, which requires a unanimous vote to make many of its decisions. As political ideologies have diversified within the region, this has made it difficult for the OAS to make quick, decisive calls to action. The polarization between American states has also led to one of the OAS's other major shortcomings: its many mandates unrelated to the core mission. In 2010, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged the OAS to streamline its processes (VOA) from what she called a "proliferation of mandates," noting that the expansion of mandates without proportional expansion of funding made for an "unsustainable" fiscal future.
Election monitoring, one of the OAS's major functions in light of its commitment to democracy, is also restricted by its inability to send election observers without the invitation of state governments. "They can't condemn a country unless that country wants to be condemned," CFR's O'Neil says. Nevertheless, she adds, it has become a norm in many member countries to accept OAS monitors, which she says has been helpful.

Divisions within OAS and anti US sentiment means they can’t solve- drugs prove
Youngers 13 - Latin America Regional Associate at International Drug Policy Consortium, senior fellow Washington Office on Latin America (Coletta, Foreign Policy in Focus, “Finally — Pride of Place for Drug Policy at the OAS General Assembly Meeting”, June 21, 2013, http://fpif.org/finally_pride_of_place_for_drug_policy_at_the_oas_general_assembly_meeting/)

This year’s annual General Assembly meeting of the Organization of American States (OAS), which brings together the hemisphere’s foreign ministers, marked a milestone in the Latin American drug policy debate. For the first time, the drug policy issue was the primary theme of a hemispheric meeting and, in a closed-door meeting of the foreign ministers, a process was laid out for continuing the discussion, culminating in a Special Session of the General Assembly to be held in 2014. The significance of this meeting should not be underestimated. Drug policy has long been a taboo topic in official Latin American circles, given the traditional U.S. dominance in defining drug policies in the region. As one official noted, “Even two years ago I would not have imagined that we would be having this discussion today.” The General Assembly meeting in Antigua, Guatemala, from June 4 to 6 illustrated that there is growing recognition across the region that present drug control policies are failing and that some countries in particular have paid a very high social, economic and political cost for implementing those policies, hence the need to consider alternative approaches. However, the Antigua meeting also showed a lack of consensus on the way forward.
The declaration agreed to at the end of the meeting, “For a Comprehensive Policy Against the World Drug Problem in the Americas,” calls for countries to initiate a multi-layered process of consultation in a variety of national and regional forums, taking into account the recently-released OAS drug policy studies and the outcomes of this General Assembly meeting and concludes by entrusting the Permanent Council to call for a Special Session to be held no later than 2014. From the declaration’s first draft, the United States, among other countries, opposed the Special Session. U.S. officials, while apparently agreeing to the Special Session in the closed-door meeting of foreign ministers, sought until the bitter end to water down the language (allowing for the Permanent Council to decide whether or not to convene a Special Session, among other caveats), ultimately allowing for the declaration to go forward with a footnote laying out U.S. concerns. (As in the case of the UN Commission on Narcotic Drugs in Vienna, the OAS operates by consensus.) The process laid out in Antigua ensures that drug policy will remain at the top of the hemispheric agenda and provides greater opportunity for Latin American countries to influence the UN General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) on Drugs to be held in 2016.
The Guatemalan government—and in particular Foreign Minister Fernando Carrera—played a crucial role in ensuring the outcome of the Antigua meeting. However, it is important to note that the next two major hemispheric meetings will be in places with governments less inclined to put drug policy alternatives on the agenda: The next meeting of the General Assembly will take place in Paraguay in 2014 and the next Summit of the Americas will be in Panama in 2015; both countries have remained firm U.S. allies on drug policy issues.
Another positive outcome of the General Assembly meeting was growing recognition of the importance of the May 2013 OAS report on “The Drug Problem in the Americas” and the complementary scenarios study. In contrast to the tepid if not outright hostile reaction to the reports in the bi-annual CICAD meeting last May, in Antigua numerous government delegations highlighted that these reports provide an important tool for the regional drug policy debate. The OAS report lays out various alternative drug policies that could be considered by member states, including decriminalization of consumption and legal, regulated markets for cannabis. Of particular significance, it calls for giving countries greater flexibility in implementing drug policy and the need for drug law reforms at both the national and international levels. In other words, the OAS report points to the possibility of reform of the international drug control conventions—an issue some countries would like to see on the agenda of the 2016 UNGASS.
However, in Antigua few governments endorsed any of the alternative policies suggested by the OAS report and how many countries will actually promote the national-level debates mandated in Antigua remains to be seen. It was clear from the individual country speeches on the topic that the “reformist” countries are far out-numbered by those which appear wedded to present policy. And support for or against an alternative approach does not break down on ideological lines. The hardest-line speech supporting a “war on drugs” approach came from Venezuela. Nicaragua, Panama, and El Salvador, among other countries, also spoke out in favor of the status quo. Neither Brazil nor Argentina articulated a reform agenda. Colombia’s foreign minister gave a very diplomatic statement that supported the OAS reports but for the most part focused on Colombia’s “achievements” in coca eradication and cocaine interdiction and what the country is doing to export its security-oriented model to the rest of the region. The Mexican government supported the Special Session, but continued to play its cards very close to its chest.
In terms of countries advocating reform, in the opening ceremony Guatemalan President Pérez Molina gave an impassioned speech on the need for drug policy reform. Ecuador’s foreign minister also criticized the U.S. “war on drugs.” And as was to be expected, the Uruguayan government gave the most articulate speech advocating a public health and human rights-based approach to drug control. It also pointed to the need to discuss the international conventions so as to improve effectiveness and ensure respect for individual and collective rights. In another welcome development, gender issues were highlighted by several delegates and Secretary General José Miguel Insulza and one of the two roundtable discussions organized by the OAS was on “Women and Drugs in the Americas: A diagnosis in the making.”

Low risk of an internal link here- their ev only cites one conflict that the OAS has ever been able to resolve 

Too late to mitigate impacts to warming and sunspot radiation variation is an alt cause
Rahn 11
(Richard W. Rahn, 1/25/2011, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, The Washington Times, “Obama's regulatory reform test,” Lexis)
The Obama Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has ruled that carbon dioxide is a pollutant and, as a result, has been holding up the permitting of new power and manufacturing plants. If this continues, it will cause a significant drop in U.S. economic growth and job creation, yet it will have no measurable benefit. China, India and many other countries are rapidly increasing CO2 emissions, overwhelming whatever actions the United States may take. Even if all new CO2 emissions were stopped globally, it would be decades before there would be even a minor effect on global temperatures. Now, new research is indicating that sunspot activity is much more important than CO2 when it comes to influencing the earth’s temperature. The EPA ban is nothing more than national economic suicide. Let us see if Mr. Obama has the courage to tell the EPA to stop.

US leadership decline inevitable in Latin America – countries are becoming more independent – Bolivia proves.
Crandall, Davidson University Political Science Associate Professor, 11
(Russell, May/June 2011, The Post-American Hemisphere, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 90 Issue: 3, Academic Search Complete. Accessed 7-6-13.  RH)

Yet over the past decade or so, the United States' willingness and ability to exert control in the region have diminished. This has occurred in part because more important issues, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, have forced Latin America down the policymaking food chain. But there is also the indisputable reality that the region itself is now more confident acting on its own. For the most part, this was inevitable, given the end of external and local communist challenges and the shift to an increasingly multilateral world that had room for new powers. Latin America's greater autonomy is both a cause and a result of decreased U.S. influence.
The United States' relationship with Bolivia provides one example of Washington's declining power in the region. Believing that it was time to pay back the Americans for their years of backing his political opponents, Bolivian President Evo Morales expelled the U.S. ambassador and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in 2008 and suspended U.S.-funded democracy programs the following year. A decade or so ago, when Bolivia was a faithful client of the United States, it would have been unimaginable for a Bolivian government to even consider such acts, given the diplomatic and financial consequences of provoking Washington's ire. Yet even the ostensibly hard-line George W. Bush administration responded to Morales' repeated diplomatic insults largely with silence. Morales had gone eyeball to eyeball with Washington and lived to tell about it.

No risk of resource wars – Studies are flawed and economic scarcity is overstated.
Dan Deudney 99, Ass. Prof. of Political Sci. at Johns Hopkins, Contested Grounds: Security and Conflict in the New Environmental Politics, Eds. Deudney and Matthews p 205-6

The hypothesis that states will begin fighting each other as natural resources are depleted and degraded seems intuitively accurate. The popular metaphor of a lifeboat adrift at sea with declining supplies of clean water and rations suggests there will be fewer opportunities for positive-sum gains between actors as resource scarcity grows. Many fears of resource war are derived from the cataclysmic world wars of the first half of the twentieth century Influenced by geopolitical theories that emphasized the importance of land and resources for great power status, Adolf Hitler fashioned Nazi German war aims to achieve resource autonomy. The aggression of Japan was directly related to resource goals: lacking indigenous fuel and minerals, and faced with a slowly tightening embargo by the Western colonial pow ers in Asia, the Japanese invaded Southeast Asia for oil, tin, and rub ber. Although the United States had a richer resource endowment than the Axis powers, fears of shortages and industrial strangulation played a central role in the strategic thinking of American elites about world strategy. During the Cold War, the presence of natural resources in the Third World helped turn this vast area into an arena for East-West conflict. Given this record, the scenario of conflicts over resources playing a powerful role in shaping international order should be taken seriously. However, there are three strong reasons for concluding that the familiar scenarios of resource war are of diminishing plausibility for the foreseeable future. First, the robust character of the world trade system means that states no longer experience resource dependency as a major threat to their military security and political autonomy. During the 1930s, the collapse of the world trading system drove states to pursue economic autarky, but the resource needs of contemporary states are routinely met without territorial control of the resource source. As Ronnie Lipschutz has argued, this means that re source constraints are much less likely to generate interstate violence than in the past. Second, the prospects for resource wars are diminished by the growing difficulty that states face in obtaining resources through territorial conquest. Although the invention of nuclear explosives has made it easy and cheap to annihilate humans and infrastructure in extensive areas, the spread of conventional weaponry and national consciousness has made it very costly for an invader, even one equipped with advanced technology, to subdue a resisting population, as France discovered in Indochina and Algeria, the United States in Vietnam, and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. At the lower levels of violence capability that matter most for conquering and subduing territory; the great powers have lost effective military superiority and are unlikely soon to regain it. Third, nonrenewable resources are, contrary to intuitive logic, becoming less economically scarce. There is strong evidence that the world is entering what H. E. Goeller and Alvin M. Weinberg have labeled the “age of substitutability,” in which industrial technology is increasingly capable of fashioning ubiquitous and plentiful earth materials such as iron, aluminum, silicon, and hydrocarbons into virtually everything needed by modem societies. The most striking manifestation of this trend is that prices for virtually every raw material have been stagnant or falling for the last two decades despite the continued growth in world economic output. In contrast to the expectations widely held during the 1970s that resource scarcity would drive up commodity prices to the benefit of Third World raw material suppliers, prices have fallen.

Diseases are short term – They evolve to be benign.
AMNH 98 The American Museum of Natural History “How did Hyperdisease cause extinctions?” http://www.amnh.org/science/biodiversity/extinction/Day1/disease/Bit2.html

It is well known that lethal diseases can have a profound effect on species' population size and structure. However, it is generally accepted that the principal populational effects of disease are acute--that is, short-term. In other words, although a species many suffer substantial loss from the effects of a given highly infectious disease at a given time, the facts indicate that natural populations tend to bounce back after the period of high losses. Thus, disease as a primary cause of extinction seems implausible. However, this is the normal case, where the disease-provoking pathogen and its host have had a long relationship. Ordinarily, it is not in the pathogens interest to rapidly kill off large numbers of individuals in its host species, because that might imperil its own survival. Disease theorists long ago expressed the idea that pathogens tend to evolve toward a "benign" state of affairs with their hosts, which means in practice that they continue to infect, but tend not to kill (or at least not rapidly). A very good reason for suspecting this to be an accurate view of pathogen-host relationships is that individuals with few or no genetic defenses against a particular pathogen will be maintained within the host population, thus ensuring the pathogen's ultimate survival.

No impact to soil erosion.
Jerry Taylor 93, Director of Natural Resource Studies at the CATO Institute, “The Growing Abundance of Natural Resources” in “Market Liberalism: A Paradigm for the 21st Century”, 1993, http://cato.org/pubs/chapters/marlib21.html

Although conservationists argue that accelerating soil erosion will make those productivity gains short-lived and illusory, the facts speak otherwise. Most of the world's worst soil erosion problems are the result, not of modern high-yield farming, but of attempts to use low-yield, traditional agricultural techniques on fragile soils.30 Studies by the U.S Department of Agriculture, the University of Minnesota's Soil Sciences Department, and economist Pierre Crosson of Resources for the Future all conclude that, at current erosion rates, heavily farmed soils in the United States might lose 3 to 10 percent of their inherent fertility over the next 100 years. Such small losses are sure to be more than offset by continued improvements in agricultural productivity even if no new conservation techniques are adopted. As Crosson noted: The success of the new high-yield technologies strongly suggests that erosion damage to soils in the main crop- producing regions of the country was not and is not as severe as is sometimes claimed. Soil scientists have acknowledged that even severely eroded soil can be restored to high productivity with investments of human skill and other resources, even though they may seem to forget this when they make pronouncements about the erosion threat. Continuation of present rates of erosion throughout most of the next century would pose no serious threat to the productivity of the nation's soils.31

Tournament: Alta | Round: 1 | Opponent: Interlake HJ | Judge:
CIR will pass- Boehner’s statements and Tallent hire
May 12/4 (Caroline, SW, Daily Caller, “Reid: Boehner ‘going to cave in’ on immigration reform”
12/04/2013, http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/04/reid-boehner-going-to-cave-in-on-immigration-reform/)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says that he believes House Speaker John Boehner is “going to cave in” and immigration reform will pass the House next year.
AND
In November, Boehner declared immigration reform “absolutely not” dead, noting that he was pleased President Obama is open to a piecemeal approach.

Development assistance costs capital
OECD 9 (ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Managing for Development Results, http://www.oecd.org/dac/effectiveness/42447575.pdf, March 2009) MfDR is Managing for Development Results
No two countries implement MfDR in exactly the same way.
AND
For this reason, it is essential to develop constituencies inside and outside of government and to ensure that the process is not seen as partisan or donor driven. N

Lifting H1-B visa cap increases science diplomacy:
Pickering et al, 10 (THOMAS R. president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science “Science diplomacy aids conflict reduction” http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/feb/20/science-diplomacy-aids-conflict-reduction/)
The U.S. government already has 43 bilateral umbrella science and technology agreements with nations worldwide, and the administration of President Barack Obama is elevating the profile of science engagement.
AND
Foreign scientists working or studying in U.S. universities make critical contributions to human welfare and to our economy, and they often become informal goodwill ambassadors for America overseas.

Science diplomacy can help solve conflicts that escalate into nuclear exchanges:
David Dickson, 2010 (Director, SciDev.Net).  May 7, 2010.  “Nuclear disarmament is top priority for science diplomacy.”  Accessed Sept. 12, 2010 at http://www.scidev.net/en/editorials/nuclear-disarmament-is-top-priority-for-science-diplomacy.html
Scientists, diplomats or both?  The only solution is for the developing world to accept that international nuclear non-proliferation is in its own interests — the only way to prevent regional conflicts escalating into nuclear exchanges.
AND
Reaching a global agreement on the steps needed to eliminate nuclear weapons from the world would be a good place to start.

Tournament: Alta | Round: 1 | Opponent: Interlake HJ | Judge:
China’s economic reform push is underway and succeeding, the only question is leveraging political capital to overcome opposition
Kroeber 11/17
(Arthur R Kroeber is Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Brookings-Tsinghua Center, “Xi Jinping's Ambitious Agenda for Economic Reform in China”, Opinion, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/11/17-xi-jinping-economic-agenda-kroeber)
The much anticipated Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress closed its four-day session last Tuesday.
AND
But one thing is for sure: Xi cannot be faulted for thinking too small.

The plan causes a conservative reaction against reform – US engagement is seen as economic containment
Zhao, professor of Chinese Politics at the University of Denver, 13
Suisheng, 6-13, Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, “Chinese Foreign Policy as a Rising Power to find its Rightful Place”, June, http://sam.gov.tr/tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/perceptions_2013_spring.pdf#page=105, accessed 7-2-13, AR
Obama’s presidency during a deep ¶ financial meltdown provided an ¶ opportunity to test this thesis. AND
The rejection was ‘a blow to China’s ambitions to buy access to raw materials crucial for its economic growth’.

Failure of the reform package causes CCP collapse
Herd 12
(Dr Graeme Herd is a Senior Programme Advisor and Senior Fellow, Leadership in Conflict Management Programme and Security Policy at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, “The Red Dynasty’s Game of Thrones: Xi Jinping’s Trilemma?”, November 27, http://www.gcsp.ch/Leadership-in-Conflict-Management/Programme-News/Web-Editorial-The-Red-Dynasty-s-Game-of-Thrones-Xi-Jinping-s-Trilemma)
The resolution of Deng Xiaoping central dilemma generated a set of structural and systemic challenges which have morphed into a ticking-time bomb of a trilemma.
AND
If he fails, and China’s own history is any judge, forced system-change is inevitable; the Red Dynasty’s end a certainty, and its successor a known unknown.

CCP collapse causes a nuclear civil war – risks extinction
Yee and Storey 2002
(Herbert Yee, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the Hong Kong Baptist University, and Ian Storey, Lecturer in Defence Studies at Deakin University, 2002 (The China Threat: Perceptions, Myths and Reality, RoutledgeCurzon, pg 5 bham))
The fourth factor contributing to the perception of a China threat is the fear of political and economic collapse in the PRC, resulting in territorial fragmentation, civil war and waves of refugees pouring into neighbouring countries.
AND
From this perspective, a disintegrating China would also pose a threat to its neighbours and the world.

Tournament: Alta | Round: 1 | Opponent: Interlake HJ | Judge:
The appropriate number of states should call for a limited Constitutional Convention for the exclusive purpose of mandating that the United States federal government substantially increase its economic engagement toward the United Mexican States through investment in Mexican water management systems. The appropriate number of states should then ratify the amendment.  The United States federal government should make no other attempt to do the plan until the amendment has been ratified. 

Contention One: Competition 

The Counter-plan competes through the politics DA.  

Contention Two: Solvency 

1. Constitutional amendments are supreme law of the land – they override any other governmental laws
   US constitution – article six http://www.constitution.org/cons/constitu.htm
   All Debts contracted and Engagements entered into, before the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be as valid against the United States under this Constitution, as under the Confederation.
   AND
   The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.

Tournament: Central Valley Bear Brawl | Round: 5 | Opponent: Lake City MC | Judge: Joe Engel
1NC CP
CP: The United States federal government should enter into a prior binding consultation with the government of Brazil for the development of academic student exchanges through joint degree programs between Mexico and the United States.
Brazil will say yes—cooperation over Latin American economic integration proves
Hakim, president emeritus and senior fellow of the Inter-American Dialogue, 10
Peter, 10-21-2010, Inter-American Dialogue, “US-Brazil Relations: Expect More Conflict”, http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32andpubID=2490, accessed 7-2-2013, GSK 

Although the US and Brazil will surely collide on other hemispheric questions in the years ahead, the US and Brazil have also demonstrated a capacity for cooperation in regional affairs.
AND
even though the US and Brazilian governments have taken very different approaches to addressing the challenge that Chavez represents.
Consultation key to successful diplomacy as Brazil rises
Einaudi, ambassador and member of the advisory Council of the Brazil institute at the Woodrow Wilson international Center for Scholars, 11
Luigi R., March, Strategic Forum (National Defense University), “Brazil and the United States: The Need for Strategic Engagement”, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/SF2026620Einaudi.pdf, accessed 7-2-13, GSK 

Whether Brazil’s future policies will, like those of the United States, reflect greater caution and sensitivity to third party interests remains an open question. But there can be no question that Brazil’s global activism is here to stay.
AND
One result is that multilateral affairs are still often an ¶ isolated afterthought in the U.S. Government. Are there ¶ things the United States and Brazil could do, whether bilaterally or in the World Trade Organization, that would ¶ offset some of the negative effects of the China trade on ¶ manufacturing in both their countries?36 Just posing the ¶ question reveals the complexity of the task.
Downard spiral causes Brazil rearm – leads to regional wars and escalates
Shultz, Chairman of the Political Science Department at Cleveland State University, 2000 Donald E, March, “The United States and Latin America: Shaping an Elusive Future”, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/display.cfm?pubid=31, accessed: 7/8/13, ML
While we are in a speculative mode, it may be useful to¶ raise the issue of whether, two or three decades from now,¶ the United States might have to deal with a regional¶ hegemon or peer competitor. The most obvious candidate for¶ such a role would be Brazil,
AND
Consequently, there is an¶ increasing temptation to look to the military for answers. 58

Tournament: Central Valley Bear Brawl | Round: 5 | Opponent: Lake City MC | Judge: Joe Engel
1NC K
GOD IS DEAD AND TRANSCENDENTAL TRUTH DIED WITH IT. THE 1ACs SIGNIFICANCE ONLY COMES FROM AN ARBITRARY SENSE OF IMPORTANCE – YET THAT KNOWLEDGE FOGS THE ONLY TRUTH THERE IS – HUMAN EXISTENCE DOESN’T MEAN A DAMN THING
Nietzsche 1873 (Friedrich, Anti-Christ, “On Truth and Lie in the Extra-Moral Sense,” The Nietzsche Channel, AD: 8/17/09) jl
In some remote corner of the universe, poured out and glittering in innumerable solar systems, there once was a star on which clever animals invented knowledge.
AND
Thereby men do not flee from being deceived as much as from being damaged by deception: what they hate at this stage is basically not the deception but the bad, hostile consequences of certain kinds of deceptions. In a similarly limited way man wants the truth: he desires the agreeable life-preserving consequences of truth, but he is indifferent to pure knowledge, which has no consequences; he is even hostile to possibly damaging and destructive truths. And, moreover, what about these conventions of language? Are they really the products of knowledge, of the sense of truth? Do the designations and the things coincide? Is language the adequate expression of all realities?
WAR AND CONFLICT DEFINE THE HUMAN CONDITION – ATTEMPTS TO SUPPRESS VIOLENCE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS NOT ONLY CAUSE MORE VIOLENCE BUT LEAD US TO LIVE TRUNCATED LIVES WITHOUT VALUE- THE ALTERNATIVE IS TO VOTE NEGATIVE
Der Derian 95 (James, On Security) jl
In the last analysis, "love of the neighbor" is always something secondary, partly conventional and arbitrary--illusory in relation to fear of the neighbor .
AND
"Trust," the "good," and other common values come to rely upon an "artificial strength": "the feeling of security  such as the Christian possesses; he feels strong in being able to trust, to be patient and composed: he owes this artificial strength to the illusion of being protected by a god." 40

Tournament: Central Valley Bear Brawl | Round: 5 | Opponent: Lake City MC | Judge: Joe Engel
1NC DA
Pemex will pass—but Nieto has to push
Estevez 13 (Dolia Estevez, contributor, journalist specializing in politics and U.S.-Mexico relations, “Most Mexicans Oppose President Peña Nieto's Plans To Open Up Pemex To Private Investment,” June 26, 2013, http://www.forbes.com/sites/doliaestevez/2013/06/26/most-mexicans-oppose-president-pena-nietos-plans-to-open-up-pemex-to-private-investment//MRG)
In London last week, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto said he will push for a “transformational” reform of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex),
AND.
Opposition politicians are conditioning talks on the oil overhaul to the government cracking down first on high level corruption, starting with Romero Deschamps.

Plan unpopular—Mexico constrained by the US policies
Starr 12 (Pamela K. Starr, Director, U.S.-Mexico Network, Associate Professor (NTT), University Fellow, Center on Public Diplomacy at the University of Southern California, “U.S.-Mexico Relations and Mexican Domestic Politics,” October 2012, https://www.google.com/url?sa=tandrct=jandq=andesrc=sandsource=webandcd=3andcad=rjaandved=0CD4QFjACandurl=http 3A2F2Fcollege.usc.edu2Fusmexnet2Fwp-content2Fuploads2F20102F102FCamp-Oxford-paper-final.docandei=mTLYUZTDMbOLyQGT14GwCQandusg=AFQjCNH_cqiYTQRo7SFmpfWugH9ABshhCgandsig2=_M2KmLNnt3e8v4vVshc_fQMRG)
The nature, depth, and anti-American undertones of Mexican nationalism have operated as a powerful impediment to U.S. interference in Mexican domestic matters
AND
Mexico has repeatedly found its policy autonomy constrained in situations where Congress has interests.
Nieto capital key to push energy reform
Clines 13 (Francis x. Clines, expert on National Politics, Congress strategy and Campaign Finance at the New York Times, “Mexico’s Ambitious Economic Agenda ,” March 31, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/01/opinion/mexicos-ambitious-economic-agenda.html//MRG)
Mexico’s new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, has proposed reforms that could make monopolistic industries like telecommunications more competitive, bolster oil production and improve the government’s finances. The proposals are commendable and could transform Mexico’s economy.
AND
it must demonstrate that it can turn Mr. Peña Nieto’s ambitious agenda into national policy.
Energy reform key to Mexico competitiveness and economy
MBW 13 (Mexico Business Web, “Competitiveness tied to Energy Reform,” July 10, 2013, http://www.mexicanbusinessweb.mx/eng/2013/competitiveness-tied-to-energy-reform//MRG)
Competitiveness tied to energy reform
AND
not making changes in the energy sector of the country will mean losing industrial competitiveness, trapped in the ground and that Mexico is unable to adapt to the new world energy order.
Economic decline will lead to an arms race and nuclear war
Heinberg 12 (Richard Heinberg, an American journalist and educator who has written extensively on energy, economic, and ecological issues, including oil depletion, he is the author of ten books, he serves as the senior fellow at the Post Carbon Institute, Conflict and Change in the Era of Economic Decline: Part 2: War and peace in a shrinking economy,” December 12, 2012, http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-12-12/conflict-and-change-in-the-era-of-economic-decline-part-2-war-and-peace-in-a-shrinking-economy//MRG)
But there is a problem with Pinker’s implied conclusion that global violence will continue to decline. The Long Peace we have known since World War II may well turn out to be shorter than hoped as world economic growth stalls and as American hegemony falters—
AND
which might otherwise be in a revolutionary mood. We can only hope that historical momentum can maintain The Great Peace until industrial nations are sufficiently bankrupt that they cannot afford to mount foreign wars on any substantial scale.

Tournament: Central Valley Bear Brawl | Round: 5 | Opponent: Lake City MC | Judge: Joe Engel
1NC T
Economic engagement includes only tangible trade and financial benefits -~-- including political, military, or cultural engagement explodes the topic
Haass and O’Sullivan 2k – Richard Haass and Meghan O’Sullivan, Senior Fellows in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 5-6

Architects of engagement strategies have a wide variety of incentives from which to choose.
AND.
By focusing our analysis, these questions and concerns help produce a framework to guide the use of engagement strategies in the upcoming decades.
Voting issue for limits and ground -~-- non-economic areas are huge, overstretch research burdens and require completely different strategies

Tournament: Central Valley Bear Brawl | Round: 5 | Opponent: Lake City MC | Judge: Joe Engel
1NC CP
The United States federal government should encourage and support the creation of relatively simple earth science labs in elementary schools, increase teacher training, and implement a Reformation of Education and Development program. The United States federal government should reinstate a Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Only the CP solves science diplomacy
Zewail 10 (Ahmed, Obama’s science envoy to the Middle East and prof of physics @ Cal Institute of Technology, June 28, http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2010/0628/Science-not-Hollywood-or-Starbucks-is-America-s-best-soft-power, 7/9/11) HD
First, the US needs to define a coherent and comprehensive policy for pursuing science diplomacy with Muslim-majority countries.
AND
The United States must also continue to pursue a just and secure two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and work toward freeing the Middle East from nuclear proliferation.
Gun control is one of the only issues that could improve US-Mexico relations-exchanges are not
Rozental, 2/1/2013. (Andrés, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Latin America Initiative)Have Prospects for U.S.-Mexican Relations Improved? http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/02/01-us-mexico-rozental
There are two issues on the bilateral agenda, however, that portend significant changes if President Obama is able to fulfill his latest commitments: gun control and immigration reform
AND
the economic relationship has nowhere to go but up. And if Peña Nieto is able to fundamentally reform the country's energy sector, there promises to be even more investment.