Tournament: Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Invitational Speech and Debate Tournament The Dream Continues at Henry W Grady High | Round: 1 | Opponent: Milton | Judge: Will Rains
1ac
Advantage 1 is Multilat
US leadership is unsustainable
 

1. Balancing- a commitment to greater cooperation is vital to managing the transition and protecting primacy
   Terrif, 12 - Senior Lecturer in International Security in the Department of Political Science and International Studies at Birmingham University, UK (Terry, Debating a Post-American World: What Lies Ahead?, ed: Clark and Hoque, p. 47-51)

A good bet, then, is that….mostly in its own hands.

2. Snowden - puts us on the brink
Global Times 7/3 (“Snowden’s fate a sign of US hegemony,” July 7th, 2013, http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/793371.shtml#.UjdfEsaceVc )
 Edward Snowden, a whistle-blower ….understanding of what will occur.

Lifting the embargo is key to US image globally
Holmes 10 MA The School of Continuing Studies, Georgetown Michael G. Holmes, SEIZING THE MOMENT, https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/bitstream/handle/10822/553334/holmesMichael.pdf?sequence=1
From an image …..out the most are trade and fuel.

Foreign nations are overwhelmingly opposed to the embargo - plan builds international credibility
Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF

At the international political level, …..for years to come.

Engaging Cuba is a prereq to engaging the rest of Latin America
Perez, 10 ¬– JD, Yale Law (David, “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department” 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)

Anti-Americanism has become ….creating goodwill.

Hemispheric diplomacy is key
Sabatini and Berger 12, Christopher Sabatini is editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and senior director of policy at Americas Society/Council of the Americas. Ryan Berger is a policy associate at the Americas Society/Council of the Americas(Christopher/Ryan, "Why the U.S. can't afford to ignore Latin America" 6/13/12, CNN/Global Public Square, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/06/13/why-the-u-s-cant-afford-to-ignore-latin-america/)//AD
 Speaking in Santiago, Chile, in March of last year, ….global strategic concerns.

The alternative to multilateralism is unilateral militarism – the plan establishes a model for hemispheric diplomacy that sustains US leadership
Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, “Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America,” New Labor Forum, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)SJF

Washington’s relations with ….quicken the U.S.’s fall.

Clinging to unilateralism causes the US to lashout and risks great power war and collapse – managed decline now is key
Quinn, 11 – Lecturer in International Studies at the University of Birmingham, having previously worked at the University of Leicester and the University of Westminster alongside his graduate studies at the LSE. His chief area of interest is the role of national history and ideology in shaping US grand strategy (Adam, “The art of declining politely: Obama’s prudent presidency and the waning of American power”, International Affairs 87:4 (2011) 803–824 http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/87_4quinn.pdf
Captain of a shrinking ship….president who fits the bill.

Causes Russia-China counterbalancing
Posen ’13 Barry R. Posen is Ford International Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, “Pull Back,” January/February, http://www.stjoe.k12.in.us/ourpages/auto/2013/1/7/40360647/13-010220Pull20Back.pdf
¶ It is time to abandon ….impressive weapons systems.

Russia-China counterbalancing causes trade wars with China and US-Russia escalation
Petras 11 (James, Bartle Professor (Emeritus) of Sociology at Binghamton University, New York. He is the author of 64 books published in 29 languages, and over 560 articles in professional journals, including the American Sociological Review, British Journal of Sociology, Social Research, Journal of Contemporary Asia, and Journal of Peasant Studies. He has published over 2000 articles in nonprofessional journals such as the New York Times, the Guardian, the Nation, Christian Science Monitor, Foreign Policy, New Left Review, Partisan Review, Temps Moderne, Le Monde Diplomatique, He is winner of the Life Time Career Award, Marxist Section, of the American Sociology Association, the Robert Kenny Award for Best Book, 2002, and the Best Dissertation, Western Political Science Association in 1968. He received his B.A. from Boston University and Ph.D. from the University of California at Berkeley, “World War III: U.S. pursues war against Russian-Chinese alliance,” December 28, 2011, Agora Cosmopolitan, http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/news/intrnational/2011/12/28/2448.html EH)
While each policy adopted by ….lowering the deficit and reviving the US economy.¶
?
US-China war goes nuclear
Goldstein 9-2-13 (Avery, avid M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations and Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania. This essay is adapted from his article “First Things First: The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations,” International Security, Spring 2013.“China’s Real and Present Danger” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139651/avery-goldstein/chinas-real-and-present-danger,)TL
MORE DANGEROUS THAN THE COLD WAR?
Uncertainty about what could …Chinese retaliation in kind. 

US-Russia nuclear miscalc
Barrett et al. 13 (Anthony M. Barrett- Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, Seth D. Baum- Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University, Kelly R. Hostetler- Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, 2013, “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia”, http://sethbaum.com/ac/fc_NuclearWar.pdf)
War involving significant ….misinterpret events as attacks. 60,61,62,63

Plan
The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with Cuba. 

Advantage 2 Is Sugar Ethanol
US corn ethanol inevitable unless US can import CUBAN sugar  
Soligo and Jaffe, 10– Rice Scholar at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University AND Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies at Rice University (Ronald AND Amy Myers, Cuba's Energy Future Strategic Approaches to Cooperation, p. 97-101)
Cuba’s Future Sugar Industry: …its sugarcane industry. 

1. US corn ethanol massively increases food prices causing conflict
   Sandoval, 2/7/13- Reporter for the Heritage Foundation citing Yaneer Bar-Yam, American physicist, systems scientist, and founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute, which is a research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions. (Michael, “Ethanol Mandate Leads to Violence, Social Unrest”, Heritage.org, http://blog.heritage.org/2013/02/07/ethanol-mandate-leads-to-social-unrest/)//TL
   The conversion of corn to …might be a small bad impact.

No alt causes-corn ethanol is key-robust studies prove
NECSI 11  - New England Complex Systems Institute, 11- research institution that uses complex systems science to analyze current events such as food shortages and provide solutions (“The Food Crises: A quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethanol conversion”, NECSI, 9/21/11, http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_prices.pdf)//TL
Finally, we consider ….must be due to other causes. 

Food insecurity creates a vicious cycle that makes conflict inevitable-prefer new escalation model
Simmons  13 (Emmy, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
“Harvesting Peace: Food Security, Conflict, and Cooperation” http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/HarvestingPeace.pdf, CS) 

¶ Food insecurity …that could refuel conflicts.

Food wars go nuclear
CRIBB 2010 (Julian, Julian Cribb is a science communicator, journalist and editor of several newspapers and books. His published work includes over 7,000 newspaper articles, 1,000 broadcasts, and three books and has received 32 awards for science, medical, agricultural and business journalism. He was Director, National Awareness, for Australia's science agency, CSIRO, foundation president of the Australian Science Communicators, and originated the CGIAR's Future Harvest strategy. He has worked as a newspaper editor, science editor for "The Australian "and head of public affairs for CSIRO. He runs his own science communication consultancy, “The coming famine: the global food crisis and what we can do to avoid it,” p. 26,)
This is the most ….need to secure them.

Solvency

The plan solves normal trade relations
Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)

The option with …don’t have a scapegoat.

Only a normalization solves-partial lifting will be rejected
Mitchell 01
(The Decline of Political Pertinence: U.S. Economic Sanctions Against Cuba
Lieutenant Colonal Stephen D. Mitchell, United States Army, 2001 March 18, Strategy Research Project)
There are two basic ways …will revert to the status quo.

Any step short of unconditional removal means won’t create the same symbol of multilateralism
Vivanco 6- LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humans Rights Watch
(Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humans rights watch, 12/22/06, http://www.hrw.org/news/2006/12/21/restraint-not-force-will-bring-change-cuba,  google scholar)KW
This reluctance would ….Cuba stop looking like David.

Tournament: St Marks Sophomore Hoe Down RR | Round: 4 | Opponent: Barstow MP | Judge: Idriss, Shearer
Manufacturing 

Manufacturing industry declining-loss of innovation
Graham 9-21—(Jordan Graham is a reporter for the Boston Herald, September 21, 2013, “MIT study: U.S. needs to step up manufacturing” http://bostonherald.com/business/business_markets/2013/09/mit_study_us_needs_to_step_up_manufacturing
The nation’s
AND
release of the report.

U.S. manufacturing is the vital internal link to competitiveness, innovation, and growth.?
Popkin 3 — Joel Popkin, received his BS degree from the Wharton School of Finance of the University of Pennsylvania and his Ph.D. in economics from the same university. He is a fellow of the National Association of Business Economists and the American Statistical Association and past Chairman of the Conference of Business Economists. He has been Chairman of the Board of the National Economists Club, a member of the Committee of Visitors to the economics department of the University of Pennsylvania, and a member of the boards of the American Statistical Association, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Economic Strategy Institute (Joel Popkin and Company, June 2003, and#34;Securing America’s Future: The Case for a Strong Manufacturing Base,and#34; http://www.jpcecon.com/NAM_PopkinPaper.pdf-http://www.jpcecon.com/NAM_PopkinPaper.pdf, Accessed 09-18-2013)
U.S. manufacturing
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strength and competitive edge.

US military power is becoming increasingly flexible EXCEPT for manufacturing – our dominance in innovation is declining now and is critical to our deterrent capability
O’Hanlon et al 12 Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments “The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012,” pg online @ http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/2620defense20industrial20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon
The current wave
AND
frequently cited example.).

US hegemony prevents extinction- and every declinist theory is wrong
Brooks et al. 13 “STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College;” January/February 2013 “Lean Forward: In Defense of American Engagement” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138468/stephen-g-brooks-g-john-ikenberry-and-william-c-wohlforth/lean-forward

Since the
AND
policies to a changing world.¶ 

U.S.-Mexican trade is set to increase, but border infrastructure isn’t keeping up — the plan reduces congestion and saves the manufacturing sector
Wilson and Lee 12 — Christopher E. Wilson, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011), and an editor and author of the Institute’s forthcoming State of the Border Report, and Erik Lee, serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University (Christopher E. Wilson, Erik Lee, Site Selection, July 2012, “Whole Nations Waiting”, http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm, Accessed 07-15-2013 | AK)
Commerce between
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dialogue and cooperation.

Modernizing border infrastructure is critical to a robust supply chain — status quo constraints and delays hamstring growth in the manufacturing sector
Figueroa et al. 12 — Alejandro Figueroa, Research and Policy Analyst at the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, and Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University, and Rick Van Schoik, Director of the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University (Alejandro Figueroa, Erik Lee, Rick Van Schoik, North American Center for Transborder Studies — Arizona State University, 01-04-12, “Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico”, http://21stcenturyborder.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/realizing-the-value-of-crossborder-trade-with-mexico2.pdf, Accessed 07-16-2013 | AK)

The close economic
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create and sustain jobs in both countries.

Border cooperation

Scenario 1 is Cartels  

The Mérida initiative towards drug cartels fails- lacks US funding and strategy
Abu-Hamdeh 11- second year student at SPP graduating with concentrations ¶ in Economics and International Relations, (Sabrina, “The Merida Initiative: An Effective ¶ Way of Reducing Violence in Mexico?”, November 2011, Public Policy at Pepperdine, http://publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/policy-review/2011v4/content/merida-initiative.pdf, CJD)
In assessing the
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domestic policy.

The plan solves- cooperation is key to have effective military facilitation on the boarder
Danelo 11- 1998 U.S. Naval Academy graduate,¶ Danelo served seven years as a Marine¶ Corps infantry officer, including a 2004 Iraq¶ deployment as a convoy commander,¶ intelligence officer and provisional¶ executive officer, now writes about international¶ affairs, consults on border security and¶ management, investigates geopolitical risk, advocates for and coaches U.S. military ¶ veterans, and conducts global field ¶ research, (David J., “TOWARD A U.S.-MEXICO SECURITY STRATEGY:¶ THE GEOPOLITICS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE ¶ IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY”, February 2011, The Program on National Security¶ at the FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, https://www.fpri.org/docs/Toward_a_US_Mexico_Security_Strategy_Danelo.pdf, CJD)
If military assistance
AND
eventually hang them separately.

Drug cartel instability will spill over throughout Latin America
Bonner ’10 – senior principal of the Sentinel HS Group
(Robert C., former administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, “The New Cocaine Cowboys”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2010, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66472/robert-c-bonner/the-new-cocaine-cowboys)
The recent headlines
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and South America.

Latin America instability causes global war and chaos
Manwaring 5 (Max G., Retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College, VENEZUELA’S HUGO CHÁVEZ, BOLIVARIAN SOCIALISM, AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE, October 2005, pg. PUB628.pdf)
President Chávez also
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peace, and prosperity.

Scenario 2 is Bioterror

Border cooperation is key to solve bioterror
Rosales et al 11- MD has worked in the health arena for more than 20 years and in public health over 15 years, after serving five years as Director, Office of Border Health for the Arizona Department of Health Services. Dr. Rosales has expertise in program development and implementation, public health administration, policy and health disparities research in the Southwest, (Cecilia, “U.S.Mexico cross-border workforce training needs:survey implementation”, January 2011, Journal of Injury and Violence Research at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3134923/, CJD)
A binational border-wide,
AND
response workforce.

Biological terrorist attack would cause extinction
Kellman ‘08 Barry, Director of the International Weapons Control Center at the DePaul University College of Law and author of Bioviolence—Preventing Biological Terror and Crime; “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat,” The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf
What Might Bioviolence Accomplish
AND
 is simply untenable.

Scenario 3 is Terrorism 

Lack of efficient border infrastructure trades off with border security – the plan is key to free up personnel and more efficient prevention measures
Christopher E. Wilson1 and Erik Lee2, 7-xx-2012, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars1, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University2, “Whole Nations Waiting,” http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm

The integrated nature of
AND
and cooperation.

Nuclear terrorism escalates to major nuclear war.
Ayson’10
Robert – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington – “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, obtained via InformaWorld
A terrorist nuclear attack,
AND
fissile material holdings.

Plan
The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement with Mexico to facilitate improved efficiency and reduced congestion along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Solvency
A strong federal role is vital — ensures coordination, transportation planning, and cross-border management
Wilson and Lee 13 — Christopher E. Wilson, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011) and has coauthored op-ed columns for the Wall Street Journal and Dallas Morning News. Chris previously served as a Mexico Analyst for the U.S. Military and as a researcher for Dr. Robert Pastor at American University’s Center for North American Studies. In Mexico, he worked with the international trade consultancy IQOM, Inteligencia Comercial, and with American students studying regional political and social issues. Before joining the Wilson Center as Associate, Chris worked as a consultant with the Mexico Institute on U.S.-Mexico economic relations. He completed his M.A. in International Affairs at American University, focusing on U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-Mexico relations, and Erik Lee, Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University. He is responsible for legislative research, policy analysis and coordination with numerous partners in the United States, Mexico and Canada on various collaborative initiatives related to trade, security and sustainability. He is the co-author of “Realizing the Full Value of our Crossborder Trade with Mexico” and “Realizing the Value of Tourism from Mexico to the United States” (2012). He serves on the international advisory board for the journal Latin American Policy and on the advisory board for the Morrison Institute’s Latino Public Policy Center. He is also a member of the international steering committee of the International Metropolis Project based at Carleton University. Mr. Lee was previously program officer for the Merage Foundation for the American Dream, assistant director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego and assistant managing director at the Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy at San Diego State University. Before completing his master’s degree in Latin American Studies at UCSD in 2000, Mr. Lee worked as a university administrator and instructor in Hermosillo, Sonora (Christopher E. Wilson, Erik Lee, The State of The Border Report: A Comprehensive Analysis of the U.S.-Mexico Border, “CHAPTER 2: THE STATE OF TRADE, COMPETITIVENESS AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING INTHE U.S.-MEXICO BORDER REGION”, May 2013, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/mexico_state_of_border.pdf, Accessed 07-19-2013 | AK)
Managing the
AND
we need regional coordination

Tournament: St Marks Sophomore Hoe Down RR | Round: 2 | Opponent: Greenhill MW | Judge: Berthiaume, Mithani
The United States Federal Government should establish a Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement with Mexico. 

Advantage One is oil spills
We control uniqueness – Pemex is about to drill alone – they don’t have the safety to prevent a spill?
Shields ‘12 2/20/12, David Shields is an independent energy analyst based in Mexico City, quoted by the Inter-American Dialogue. “Q and A: Is Mexico Prepared for Deepwater Drilling in the Gulf?” Inter-American Dialogue, February 20-24, http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/20477/Is20Mexico20Prepared20for20Deepwater20Drilling20in20the20Gulf.pdf?sequence=1
"They say that if a country
AND
The next disaster is just waiting to happen."

The plan solves – creates joint inspections and US expertise that prevents spills
Broder and Krauss, 12  – business correspondents at the New York Times
(John M. Broder and Clifford Krauss, “U.S. in Accord With Mexico on Drilling”, The New York Times, 2-20-2012, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/21/world/americas/mexico-and-us-agree-on-oil-and-gas-development-in-gulf.html?_r=1andref=americas)
WASHINGTON — The United States and Mexico
AND
have led to a surge in domestic production.

It spills over to the entire Gulf of Mexico?
Velarde ‘12 3/19/12, Velarde is an Attorney and Counselor-at-Law, admitted in Mexico in 1988, and in the State of New York in 1991. Mr. López-Velarde held various positions at Pemex during 1988-1993, including that of Financial Advisor to the Finance Department, In-House Counsel in Houston, Texas, In-House Counsel in New York, and Head of the International Legal Department of Pemex. He was honored with the “Most Distinguished Attorney Award” of Pemex for the period 1990-1991. “US-Mexican treaty on Gulf of Mexico transboundary reservoirs”, International Law Office, http://www.internationallawoffice.com/newsletters/detail.aspx?g=b9326bf8-f27f-43ff-b45a-1b2b70ccb217
Pemex has indicated that it has
AND
standards only in respect of transboundary reservoirs.

Resiliency is wrong specifically for the Gulf-BP put us on the brink
Craig, 11 – Attorneys’ Title Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Environmental Programs at Florida State University (Robin Kundis, “Legal Remedies for Deep Marine Oil Spills and Long-Term Ecological Resilience: A Match Made in Hell”, Brigham Young University Law Review, 2011, http://lawreview.byu.edu/articles/1326405133_03craig.fin.pdf)
Ecological resilience and resilience theory
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waters, however, suggests otherwise.

The Gulf is a key ocean biodiversity hotspot
Brenner, 8 – (Jorge Brenner, “Guarding the Gulf of Mexico’s valuable resources”, SciDevNet, 3-14-2008, http://www.scidev.net/en/opinions/guarding-the-gulf-of-mexico-s-valuable-resources.html)//SDL
The Gulf of Mexico, is rich in
AND
the climate of western Europe.

Extinction?
Clark and Downes ‘6 2006, Dana Clark, Center for International Environmental Law, and David Downes, US Interior Dept. Policy Analysis Senior Trade Advisor, , What price biodiversity?, http://www.ciel.org/Publications/summary.html
Biodiversity is the diversity of life
AND
biodiversity is not valuable.

adv 2 is Trade Deficits

Trade deficit increasing
Boesler 10-8—(Matthew Boesler is a reporter for Business Insider's markets desk. Previously, he hosted Benzinga Radio, a business news and investing program. He holds a degree in economics from the University of Michigan. OCT. 8, 2013¶ “Here's Everything We Know About The Trade Balance Report That Didn't Get Released” http://www.businessinsider.com/author/matthew-boesler)
The government shutdown means
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July's $39.1 billion deficit.

Reducing the trade deficit is the largest internal link into economic recovery and the manufacturing industry
Scott et al 13—(Robert E. Scott is  the Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research at EPI, Helene Jorgensen is the is an economic consultant, and senior research associate with the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and Doug Hall is the Director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network at EPI, February 7, 2013,  “Reducing U.S. trade deficits will generate a manufacturing-based recovery for the United States and Ohio Ending currency manipulation by China and others is the place to start” http://www.epi.org/publication/bp351-trade-deficit-currency-manipulation/)
Reducing U.S. trade deficits
AND
one of the nation’s preeminent manu- facturing states.

Increasing trade deficits kill economic growth
ZBC ’13 (Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, “Trade deficit threat to economic growth”, http://www.zbc.co.zw/news-categories/business/29377-trade-deficit-worries-fiscal-authorities.html, March 12, 2013)

The country’s fiscal authorities say
AND
reducing the trade gap,” he said. 

Economic decline increases the risk of war—strong statistical support; their ev doesn’t assume rally around the flag
Royal 10 — Jedidiah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, M.Phil. Candidate at the University of New South Wales, 2010 (“Economic Integration, Economic Signalling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Edited by Ben Goldsmith and Jurgen Brauer, Published by Emerald Group Publishing, ISBN 0857240048, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how
AND
should be considered ancillary to those views.

Manufacturing industry declining-loss of innovation
Graham 9-21—(Jordan Graham is a reporter for the Boston Herald, September 21, 2013, “MIT study: U.S. needs to step up manufacturing” http://bostonherald.com/business/business_markets/2013/09/mit_study_us_needs_to_step_up_manufacturing
The nation’s booming innovation
AND
after the release of the report.

US military power is becoming increasingly flexible EXCEPT for manufacturing – our dominance in innovation is declining now and is critical to our deterrent capability
O’Hanlon et al 12 Mackenzie Eaglen, American Enterprise Institute Rebecca Grant, IRIS Research Robert P. Haffa, Haffa Defense Consulting Michael O'Hanlon, The Brookings Institution Peter W. Singer, The Brookings Institution Martin Sullivan, Commonwealth Consulting Barry Watts, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments “The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy January 2012,” pg online @ http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/2620defense20industrial20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon
The current wave of defense
AND
submarines is a frequently cited example.).

US hegemony prevents extinction- and every declinist theory is wrong
Brooks et al. 13 “STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College;” January/February 2013 “Lean Forward: In Defense of American Engagement” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138468/stephen-g-brooks-g-john-ikenberry-and-william-c-wohlforth/lean-forward

Since the end of World War II,
AND
policies to a changing world.¶ 

Increase production and exports of oil will eliminate the trade deficit within the decade
Mills 13—(May 3rd 2013, Mark P. Mills, senior fellow at the Manhattan institute, “THE CASE FOR EXPORTS: America's Hydrocarbon Industry Can Revive the Economy and Eliminate the Trade Deficit,” http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/pgi_03.htm#.Ud4JSkIkY0M)
Today, oil imports account
AND
pushing the trade deficit down.

Advantage 3 is steel

Shutdown means the steel industry is low now
Berezowsky 10-1—(Taras Berezowsky, freelance writer for Seeking Alpha, Oct 1 2013, Government Shutdown Or Not, U.S. Steel Industry Taking Big Hit, http://seekingalpha.com/article/1722252-government-shutdown-or-not-u-s-steel-industry-taking-big-hit)
No matter what happened around midnight last night
AND
Gibson mentioned are already quite real.

Cheaper natural gas prices are key to the steel industry
Hughes 4/1 (Darrell Hughes, The Financialist, Credit Suisse Group, an international financial services group, April 1, 2013,  “Will Cheap Natural Gas Change US Steel Production?”, http://www.thefinancialist.com/will-cheap-natural-gas-change-us-steel-production/)
Cheap natural gas
AND
if they can retain them.

THA lowers natural gas prices?
CONR 5/13 (US Committee on Natural Resources, May 15, 2013, Press Release, “?House Committee Approves Legislation to Approve Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement with Mexico ?Bill Creates New American Jobs, Expands American Energy Production, Grows Economy “, http://naturalresources.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=334042)
WASHINGTON, D.C., May 15, 2013 - Today, the House Natural Resources Committee approved H.R. 1613, the “Outer Continental Shelf Transboundary Hydrocarbon Agreements
AND
towards becoming law,” said Rep. Jeff Duncan (SC-03).

The steel industry’s key to the navy
Gibson 11 Thomas J. Gibson received his law degree from Georgetown University where he graduated magna cum laude. He holds a Master of Marine Affairs degree from the University of Rhode Island and a B.S. in Naval Architecture from the United States Naval Academy. Gibson served as Senior Vice President of Advocacy for the American Chemistry Council. Previously, Gibson served as the Senior Vice President, Government Affairs for the Portland Cement Association. Prior to joining PCA in 2004, Gibson served as Chief of Staff for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2011, "Profile of the American Iron and Steel Institute 2010-2011"www.steel.org//media/Files/AISI/About AISI/Profile Brochure F-singles_CX.pdf
Military uses for steel are extensive.
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vehicles use significant amounts of steel.

Collapse of naval power ensures Chinese aggression and triggers wars in every major hotspot
Eaglen, Research Fellow National Security at Heritage, 2011 (Mackenzie, May 16, “Thinking About a Day Without Sea Power: Implications for U.S. Defense Policy” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/thinking-about-a-day-without-sea-power-implications-for-us-defense-policy)
Global Implications. Under a scenario of
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far outweigh the costs of maintaining it

Navy is key to solve Arctic conflict-best studies prove
Freeman 09 (Bob, Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy, ‘Navy Releases Roadmap For Future Arctic Operations”, 11/24/09, http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=49725, CS)
WASHINGTON (NNS) -- The vice chief
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mission requirements," Titley explained.

Arctic conflict US-Russia war—highest magnitude impact
Staples 9 (Steven, Rideau Institute, Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen , “PRESENTATION NOTES STEPS TOWARD AN ARCTIC NUCLEAR WEAPON FREE ZONE”, Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier, 8/10,http://www.diis.dk/graphics/Events/2009/Presentation20Staples.pdf)
¶ ¶ The fact is, the Arctic is
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nuclear weapons.

Solvency
Hydrocarbons agreement is critical to oil exports and relations
Boman, 13 oil and natural gas expert (Karen Boman, 4/22/13, “Bill Seeks to Allow Drilling Near US Mexico Maritime Border”, http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=125950)//EM
Bill Seeks to Allow Drilling
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Mexico production shortfalls, Lugar added.

Tournament: Wake | Round: 2 | Opponent: Montgomery Bell Academy | Judge:
Inherency
Mexico Drilling along the border is inevitable ----- only a question of cooperation
Urdaneta ’10 – associate at Grau Garcia Hernandez and Monaco (Law Firm) (Karla, “TRANSBOUNDARY PETROLEUM RESERVOIRS: A RECOMMENDED APPROACH FOR THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO IN THE DEEPWATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO”, Houston Journal of International Law, Volume 32, Number 2, Spring 2010) 

In view of this, Mexico is primarily concerned with reservoirs located outside the Western
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has led to beneficial results among other countries that have faced similar dilemmas.

Pemex needs US investment and expertise - oil production is decreasing now
Nick Miroff and William Booth 5/7/13 - (Correspondent for The Washington Post covering Mexico aster's degree from the UC Berkeley School of Journalism, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-05-07/world/39073749_1_energy-industry-foreign-oil-petroleos-de-mexico)//AP
 But while it once was a source of national pride, the state-
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will need to be scrapped if the country wants to attract foreign drillers.
Trade Deficit 

Trade deficit increasing past expert predictions
Reuters 9-4 (Reuters, September 04, 2013 “U.S. Trade Deficit Widens in July,” http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2013/09/04/us-trade-deficit-widens-in-july/ )
The U.S. trade deficit widened slightly more than expected in July as
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in June. This measure goes into the calculation of gross domestic product. 

Reducing the trade deficit is the largest internal link into economic recovery and the manufacturing industry
Scott et al 13—(Robert E. Scott is  the Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research at EPI, Helene Jorgensen is the is an economic consultant, and senior research associate with the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and Doug Hall is the Director of the Economic Analysis and Research Network at EPI, February 7, 2013,  “Reducing U.S. trade deficits will generate a manufacturing-based recovery for the United States and Ohio Ending currency manipulation by China and others is the place to start” http://www.epi.org/publication/bp351-trade-deficit-currency-manipulation/)
Reducing U.S. trade deficits will generate a manufacturing-based recovery for
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and in Ohio, one of the nation’s preeminent manu- facturing states.

Increasing trade deficits kill economic growth
ZBC ’13 (Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, “Trade deficit threat to economic growth”, http://www.zbc.co.zw/news-categories/business/29377-trade-deficit-worries-fiscal-authorities.html, March 12, 2013)

The country’s fiscal authorities say the trade deficit which stood at US$773 million
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if the country is to meet its economic targets.  Export incentives and the 

Economic decline leads to nuclear war
Harris and Burrows 9  - Matthew, PhD European History at Cambridge/Counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC), Jennifer, Member of NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit (“Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf, AM)

Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and
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within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
diversification of the export base through value addition remains some of the necessary measures in reducing the trade gap,” he said.

The manufacturing sector is contracting
Fontevecchia 6-3 (Agustino Fontevecchia, writer for Forbes, “U.S. Manufacturing Takes The Worst Hit Since June 2009 As Sequester And Slowing Consumption Bite” http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/06/03/u-s-manufacturing-takes-the-worst-hit-since-june-2009-as-sequester-and-slowing-consumption-bite/ 6-3-13)
As many try to minimize the impact of fiscal restraint and the sequester on the
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release of construction spending numbers, which rose less than expected on Monday.

US leadership declining now - increasing manufacturing prerequisite to revitalizing US hegemony
Monroe 2013 Kirk - director of communications for the Business Roundtable, "Report says U.S. military dangerously dependent on foreign suppliers calls for stronger U.S. manufacturing sector to protect national security", PR Newswire, May 08, http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/report-says-us-military-dangerously-dependent-on-foreign-suppliers-calls-for-stronger-us-manufacturing-sector-to-protect-national-security-206595791.html
Urgent action is needed to reduce the U.S. military's dangerous dependence on foreign suppliers for the raw materials, parts, and finished products needed to defend America, according to a new study prepared by Brigadier General John Adams (U.S. Army, Retired).
Remaking American Security: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and National Security Risks Across the U.S. Defense Industrial Base was authored by Guardian Six Consulting President Brigadier General John Adams and released today at a Capitol Hill event led by Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), and Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).
The report finds that U.S. national security and the health of the
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production of the natural resources and manufactured goods necessary to equip our military.
"America's vulnerability today is frightening," said General Adams. "This report is
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real risk that supply chain vulnerabilities will hamper our response to future threats."

Heg is key to solve multiple scenarios for conflicts
Brooks, Ikenberry and Wolforth 2013 STEPHEN G. BROOKS is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. G. JOHN IKENBERRY is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. WILLIAM C. WOHLFORTH is Daniel Webster Professor of Government at Dartmouth College; “Lean Forward: In Defense of American Engagement”, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2013, Accessed from a digital subscription
KEEPING THE PEACE Of course, even if it is true that the costs of
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to Asia. Yet that is exactly what the Obama administration is doing.

All their turns are inevitable - zero chances of willful US restraint – we’ll inevitably be engaged globally – the only question is effectiveness
Calleo, 10 David P, “American Decline Revisited”,  Director European Studies Program and Professor @ SAIS, Survival, 52:4, 215 – 227
The history of the past two decades suggests that adjusting to a plural world is
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turns the dollar into an imperial instrument that threatens the world with inflation.

Increase production and exports of oil will eliminate the trade deficit within the decade
Mills 13—(May 3rd 2013, Mark P. Mills, senior fellow at the Manhattan institute, “THE CASE FOR EXPORTS: America's Hydrocarbon Industry Can Revive the Economy and Eliminate the Trade Deficit,” http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/pgi_03.htm#.Ud4JSkIkY0M)
Today, oil imports account for about 40 percent of America's $750 billion annual
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.S. refined petroleum products are already pushing the trade deficit down.

Mexico Relations
Now is the KEY time for US-Mexican relations
Seguin, 2013 (Israel Hernández Seguin is Deputy Director of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI). He also chairs the Council’s Youth Program and founded Internacionalistas, a magazine on global trends, “Open Borders: Collaboration between Mexico and the U.S,” Chicago Policy Review, February 14, 2013, http://chicagopolicyreview.org/2013/02/14/5011/;)
The change in administration in both countries offers a new opportunity to refocus the priorities
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Asia, as seen by the recent emphasis in the Trans Pacific Partnership.

Scenario 1 is Cyber terrorism:
A. Cyber Attacks are increasing in the status quo and are only going to get worse
Bernstein 9/4 (Peter Bernstein, 9/4/13, Peter Bernstein is a seasoned writer and professional with deep experience in the communications and IT industries. As a top-level industry analyst, Peter has keynoted major technology events and has been cited numerous times by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, The Washington Post, Business Week, Fortune Magazine, ComputerWorld, NetworkWorld, Communications Week, among other publications.
Bernstein has authored or co-authored market research studies, CEO speeches, white papers, articles, and other content for major companies in the technology markets. His experience includes work with Alcatel-Lucent, Avaya, Equant, France Telecom, HP, Siemens, Verizon, Nortel, Wave Systems, and many more. He held the position of director of global marketing and communications at Telcordia.
Having been on Advisory Boards for 15 technology start-up firms, Bernstein most recently worked as a consultant to C-level executives on all aspects of marketing communications strategy and tactics – from concept to cash, crisis management, brand stewardship, and helping establish metrics, manage processes and leadership practices, “Lieberman Software Finds When It Comes to State-Sponsored Cyber Attacks, We Ain't Seen Nothing Yet,”, http://www.techzone360.com/topics/techzone/articles/2013/09/04/351820-lieberman-software-finds-when-it-comes-state-sponsored.htm)
For anyone looking at recent headlines, it is more than crystal clear that state
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, but the lessons to be drawn cannot and should not be ignored.

B. US-Mexico relations are key to solve cyber-security threats – engagement is key
Downie, Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, National Defense University, 11
(Dr. Richard, deputy director and fellow with the CSIS Africa Program, master’s degree in international public policy from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, “Critical Strategic Decisions in Mexico: the Future of US/Mexican Defense Relations,” July 2011, http://www.ndu.edu/chds/docuploaded/Dr_Downie_OCP_2011.pdf, ara)
2). Impact on US/Mexico Defense Relationship. The “stay the course
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to a closer US/Mexico defense relationship arising from our past history.

C. Retaliation to cyber-attack escalates to global nuclear war
Lawson 9 (Sean - assistant professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Utah, Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict, , 5/13/2009, http://www.seanlawson.net/?p=477 )
At a time when it seems impossible to avoid the seemingly growing hysteria over the
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lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” 7

D. Even if there’s no retaliation to a cyberattack cyberterrorism will cause an accidental launch that triggers the Dead Hand and nuclear war
Fritz 9 (Jason, BS – St. Cloud, “Hacking Nuclear Command
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of mass DDoS attacks, real world protests, and accusations between governments. 

E. The timeframe for an “electronic Pearl Harbor” 15 minutes and cyber-attacks independently comparable to a nuclear war
Spillius ‘10 (Alex, May 07, “Cyber attack 'could fell US within 15 minutes'”, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/7691500/Cyber-attack-could-fell-US-within-15-minutes.html)
Richard Clarke claims that America's lack of preparation for the annexing of its computer system
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involve not a single terrorist or soldier setting foot in the United States. 

Scenario 2 is Bioterrorism:
A. Relations are key to solve bioterror- method cooperation
Rosales et al 11- MD has worked in the health arena for more than 20 years and in public health over 15 years, after serving five years as Director, Office of Border Health for the Arizona Department of Health Services. Dr. Rosales has expertise in program development and implementation, public health administration, policy and health disparities research in the Southwest, (Cecilia, “U.S.Mexico cross-border workforce training needs:survey implementation”, January 2011, Journal of Injury and Violence Research at Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3134923/, CJD)
Abinational border-wide, online assessment on preparedness/emergency response and workforce training
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both successful in securing the resources to survey the preparedness and response workforce.

B. Biological terrorist attack would cause extinction
Kellman ‘08 Barry, Director of the International Weapons Control Center at the DePaul University College of Law and author of Bioviolence—Preventing Biological Terror and Crime; “Bioviolence: A Growing Threat,” The Futurist, May-June 2008, http://www.wfs.org/March-April09/MJ2008_Kellman.pdf
What Might Bioviolence Accomplish? Envision a series of attacks against capitals of developing states
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The notion that no one will ever commit catastrophic bioviolence is simply untenable.

C. Now is key – bioterror threats increasing
Garrett, 12 Laurie, Senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, recipient of the 1996 Pulitzer Prize for her coverage of the Ebola epidemic in what was then Zaire, and author of I Hear the Sirens Scream: How American Responded to the 9/11 and Anthrax Attacks; “Flu Season,” Foreign Policy, January 5, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/05/flu_season
Meanwhile, bird flu is back, causing human and bird infections and deaths in
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. The naturally occurring recombinant flu had infected a dozen Americans by Christmas.

Plan solves Relations-and co-op low now
Brown and Meacham 6/05- *non-resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States,  director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. They previously served as senior advisers on the Republican staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and authored the report Oil, Mexico, and the Transboundary Agreement, (Neil and Carl, “Time for US-Mexico Transboundary Agreement”, 06/05/13, The Hill, http://thehill.com/opinion/op-ed/303739-time-for-us-mexico-transboundary-agreement, CJD)
Such was the concern of many in Mexico that led to an oil exploration moratorium
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partners. That is good for Mexico and for the U.S.

Plan 

The United States Federal Government should establish a Transboundary Hydrocarbons Agreement with Mexico. 

Solvency

TBA solves long term relations and c0-op with Mexico-it’s key to broader co-op  
Pascual 13 (Carlos, Vice president and Director of Foreign policy, the Brookings Institution, “U.S. – Mexico Transboundary Hydrocarbon Agreement and Steps Needed for Implementation”, April 25th, 2013, http://naturalresources.house.gov/uploadedfiles/pascualtestimony04-25-13.pdf)//moxley
The Transboundary Agreement is an important step in our national efforts to better ¶ secure
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¶ Mexican energy market, potentially leading to deeper and more meaningful ¶ collaboration

Hydrocarbons agreement is critical to oil independence and relations
Boman, 13 oil and natural gas expert (Karen Boman, 4/22/13, “Bill Seeks to Allow Drilling Near US Mexico Maritime Border”, http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=125950)//EM
Bill Seeks to Allow Drilling Near US Mexico Maritime Border A legislative hearing will take
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Middle East crudes to make up for Mexico production shortfalls, Lugar added.