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Tournament | Round | Opponent | Judge | Cites | Round Report | Open Source | Edit/Delete |
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New Trier | 4 | University Prep | Nathan Bennett |
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New Trier | 6 | Valley DB |
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New Trier Tournament | 2 | Kent Denver BJ | Bruce Miller |
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St Marks | 2 | Westminster | Weston and Shearer |
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St Marks | 4 | GBS | Sawyer Collier |
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St Marks | 7 | Coppell | Abbas Makuch |
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Tournament | Round | Report |
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New Trier | 4 | Opponent: University Prep | Judge: Nathan Bennett 1NC 2NC 1nr |
New Trier | 6 | Opponent: Valley DB | Judge: 1NC |
New Trier Tournament | 2 | Opponent: Kent Denver BJ | Judge: Bruce Miller 1NC 2NC 1NR |
St Marks | 2 | Opponent: Westminster | Judge: Weston and Shearer 2NC |
St Marks | 4 | Opponent: GBS | Judge: Sawyer Collier 2NC |
St Marks | 7 | Opponent: Coppell | Judge: Abbas Makuch 2NC |
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1NC Round 2Tournament: New Trier Tournament | Round: 2 | Opponent: Kent Denver BJ | Judge: Bruce Miller 1Interpretation – the plan and only the plan is the focal point of topicality. On face, the plan must exclusively increase economic engagement. Only this interpretation preserves topic education.Resnick 1 – Dr. Evan Resnick, Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Yeshiva University, "Defining Engagement", Journal of International Affairs, Spring, 54(2), Ebsco B. Violation – the plan does not on face increase economic engagement TO SOLVE THEIR ADVANTAGES.C. Standards1. Vacuum Test - we make a clear distinction between topical and non-topical plans. If you can look at just the plan and tell on face that there is an increase, then it is topical. As soon as you have to look at solvency evidence to determine topicality, then affirmative is automatically non-topical.2. Limits – they open the floodgates to an infinite number of cases that could eventually increase economic engagement. Even conquering Mexico with military force could be considering topical.3. Ground – they spike out of core neg arguments like Politics and CPs that are based on direct economic engagement with the target country.D. Vote negative1. F-X topicality is a voting issue – it’s impossible for the neg to predict the different chains of internal links that could lead to the aff, which skews the debate in the aff’s favor2. Extra Topicality is an independent reason to reject the affirmative. The plan directly influences something outside of the topic. Extra topical allow the affirmative to access unpredictable advantages and skews negative ground.2Text: The United States federal government will engage in prior binding consultation with the Federative Republic of Brazil over the plan which states: The United States federal government should offer investment for collaboration on cross-border transmission, electricity regulation, standardization, and grid integration to the United Mexican States. The United States will advocate investment for collaboration on cross-border transmission, electricity regulation, standardization and grid integration imnot the US-MEXICAN states during the consultative process and will adopt the result of the consultative process. We reserve the right to clarify.Binding consultation with Brazil key to US-Brazil relationsLuigi R. Einuadi, March 2011, ambassador, distinguished fellow at the Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, and the National Defense University. Member for the Advisory Council of the Brazil Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "Brazil and the United States: The Need for Strategic Engagement", http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docupload/SF2026620Einaudi.pdf-http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docupload/SF 266 Einaudi.pdf US-Brazil Relations are necessary to fight terrorismMeyer 2013 (Brazil-U.S. Relations Peter J. Meyer Analyst in Latin American Affairs February 27, 2013 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf) The U.S. government has worked with Brazil to address concerns about the Terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation goes globalMorgan 2009 (Dennis Ray, Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, December, "World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race" Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect) MG In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question "Is 3Debt ceiling will be raised now but it’s not certain —- Obama’s ironclad political capital is forcing the GOP to give inBeutler 10/3 ("Republicans finally confronting reality: They’re trapped21," Salon http://www.salon.com/2013/10/03/republicans_finally_confronting_reality_theyre_trapped/-http://www.salon.com/2013/10/03/republicans_finally_confronting_reality_theyre_trapped/) Engagement with Latin America’s a fight in congress – saps PCMeyer and Sullivan ’12 ~Peter J. Meyer - Analyst in Latin American Affairs and Mark P. Sullivan - Specialist in Latin American Affairs, "U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and FY2013 Appropriations", June 26th, 2012, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf-http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf~~ Obama’s PC is key – bully pulpitThe Citizen 10/3 (Guy Cosentino, Former Mayor of Auburn, "Cosentino: Obama Needs to Show Leadership" http://auburnpub.com/columnists/guy_cosentino/cosentino-obama-needs-to-show-leadership/article_1719a103-9a90-5062-bfdd-057ef128d2f8.html) Default destroys the global economyKrugman 9/29 (Paul, Nobel Prize winning economist, "Rebels without a Clue," NEW YORK TIMES, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/30/opinion/krugman-rebels-without-a-clue.html-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/30/opinion/krugman-rebels-without-a-clue.html) Global nuclear warHarris 26 Burrows 9 (Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf) ManufacturingPlan not key - Mexican manufacturing in the status quo is high now ; beating major competitors like ChinaCoy ’13 (Peter, is the economics editor for Bloomberg Business week and covers a wide range of economic issues, "Four Reasons Mexico Is Becoming a Global Manufacturing Power", Bloomberg Business Week, June 27th, 2013, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-27/four-reasons-mexico-is-becoming-a-global-manufacturing-power-http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-06-27/four-reasons-mexico-is-becoming-a-global-manufacturing-power, SD) Alt cause – shutdown has been reducing military contractingNo impact to aerospace collapse — empirics prove.Hill et al 10 Employment downturns in the Seattle regional economy have occurred around the time of national recession Civil aircraft sales are an alt cause and aerospace is resilientRNCOS 12 According to our research report, "Aerospace Industry Forecast to 2013", global aerospace War with North Korea is better for stability—regime changeAyson and Taylor 10 Conclusions The logic of the status quo—the continuing oscillation between alarm over North North Korean war prevents EMP attack killing US primacy—readinessMaloof, 13 WASHINGTON – A prominent foreign policy expert now thinks it’s time to pre-emptively War in the Arctic is impossible – international cooperation checks escalation.Kraska 11 Still, armed conflict in the Arctic is improbable. The National Intelligence Council, SQ military infrastructure solves, ports aren’t keyDOD 11 Since 2007, the U.S. Coast Guard has deployed cutters, aircraft Resource competition leads to cooperation, not conflictHong 11 The high cost of doing business in the Arctic suggests that only the world’s largest American hegemony does not solve conflictBandow, Senior Fellow at the Cato institute, 13 American foreign policy is a wreck. The presumption that Washington controls events around the globe has been exposed to all as an embarrassing illusion. No China-Taiwan warSteketee 8 CHINA is unlikely to be a military threat and the chances of a conflict over GridElectricity trading’s impossible without monopoly reformBonner and Rozental 9 (Robert C., Former Commissioner – U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Former Administrator – Drug Enforcement Administration, and Andr?s, Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico; Former President and Founder – Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, "Managing the United States-Mexico Border: Cooperative Solutions to Common Problems," Pacific Council on International Policy, http://www.pacificcouncil.org/admin/document.doc?id=31) Energy coop fails – structurally different energy marketsPeach 12 (Dr. Jim, Professor of Economics – New Mexico State University, "Energy Issues of the US-Mexico Border Region," Border X Roads, October, http://blog.bnsl.org/?p=329-http://blog.bnsl.org/?p=329) The international border creates additional complexity for energy issues in the border region. San Diego and Tijuana (or El Paso and Juárez) are cities in two different nations but anyone living in the border region can explain that they have more in common than geographic proximity. Interactions across the border include workers who commute, trade flows, cross-border investments, families in which some members live on one side of the border while others live in el otro lado. Traffic flows and long lines at border crossings are almost daily reminders of cross-border interaction. Energy is also a trans-border phenomenon. City pairs in the interior of a nation such as Dallas-Fort Worth may have daunting energy issues, but they do not have an international border to contend with. Border region city pairs (they are not twins as they are sometimes called) are located where two very different national energy systems collide and where trans-border cooperation on energy issues is not exactly easy. Energy prices in Mexico and the US are rarely the same. Total energy consumption per capita in the US is about 4.5 times the comparable figure in Mexico. Electricity consumption per capita in the US is about 6.5 times as large as in Mexico –but Mexico’s per capita electricity consumption is growing at a faster rate than in the US. For each 241,000 of GDP, the US uses more energy than Mexico but the gap is narrowing because US industries have greatly increased their energy efficiency. (The data in this paragraph are from World Bank, Development Indicators as of 2009, the latest year available http://data.worldbank.org/topic/energy-and-mining). The US and Mexican national energy systems also differ in terms of market structure. US petroleum is produced almost exclusively by private firms while in Mexico the oil industry is dominated by a single state owned firm, PEMEX. For more than fifty years the US has been a large importer of petroleum and for most of that time Mexico has been a large exporter of petroleum –mainly to the US. In the borderlands, consumers and suppliers face the same petroleum related problems as in the two nations. Prices of petroleum (and natural gas) are mainly determined in national and international markets even though there may be small regional price differentials. Figure 1 displays percent changes in inflation adjusted (real) West Texas Intermediate prices per barrel. The WTI price is a commonly used benchmark price for oil. While many people assume that oil prices (and other energy prices) always increase, what is striking in Figure 1 is that oil prices are highly volatile. Other energy (natural gas, uranium, coal) prices are also highly volatile and confronting this price volatility is a major energy issue that affects consumers, producers, and the business community in the border region. In the US, most but not all electricity is produced and distributed by private (regulated) firms while that is not the case in Mexico. The Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) is the state owned electric company in Mexico. CFE is responsible for nearly all electricity generation, transmission, and distribution in Mexico including the six border-states. While states and municipalities on both sides of the border face challenges to ensure adequate supplies of electricity and a stable electricity grid for a growing population and expanding commerce and industry, they do so in very different regulatory and investment environments. Cross-border transmission of electricity (mainly from Mexico to the US) is already occurring and this phenomenon will probably increase in the future. Historically, the US first exported electricity to Mexico in 1905. NAFTA expanded the possibility of cross-border electricity sales and regulatory agencies in the US such as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and state agencies responded with appropriate regulatory changes. The potential for cross border trade in electricity generated by renewables is also enhanced by individual state environmental standards, particularly Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). RPS standards are state regulations that require a specified percentage of electricity sales in the state to be generated by renewables. Imports of electricity generated by renewables can generally be counted against RPS standards. Increasingly, electricity generation projects on the borderlands (both sides) involve solar or wind generation (Photo 1). While cross-border energy projects can increase efficiency, such projects can also create additional difficulties. For example, in the early 2000s various environmental and citizen groups alleged that power plants being built in Mexicali to provide electricity to southern California and Arizona did not meet US environmental standards. The debate over whether or not the plants were being built in Mexico to circumvent US law was bitter and intense (see, for example the report by the US Government Accountability Office on the estimated emissions from the two plants: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-05-823 ). New developments sure up grid stabilityKemp 12 — Reuters market analyst (John, 4/5/12, "COLUMN-Phasors and blackouts on the U.S. power grid: John Kemp," http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/05/column-smart-grid-idUSL6E8F59W120120405) The hoped-for solution to grid instability is something called the North American SynchroPhasor No internal link to collapse manu – us manu resilientAlt cause – shutdownBlackouts won’t hurt the economyGaylord 3 (Becky, "Blackout Blues Hit Local Industries", The Plain Dealer, 8-16, The biggest blackout in U.S. history will pinch the nation’s economy onlymodestly Connectivity leads to grid instability – turns the caseTerry 12 - Master’s candidate at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies No internal link to economic collapse – blackout in 2003 didn’t trigger collapse nor manufacturingNo historical connection between economic collapse and conflictFerguson 6 – M.A., Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, Resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Senior Research Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University (Niall, "The Next War of the World", Foreign Affairs, September-October 2006, May 21st 2010) SolvencyMexico would say no- laundry list of other focuses that don’t include energy.Seelke, Specialist in Latina American Affairs, 1-16-13’, (Clare R., Congressional Research Service, "Mexico’s New Administration: Priorities and ¶ Key Issues in U.S.-Mexican Relations", http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42917.pdf,p.6-http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42917.pdf,p.6, accessed 7/12/13, LLM) Upon his inauguration, President Peña Nieto announced a reform agenda with specific proposals ¶ | 10/17/13 |
1NC Round 4Tournament: New Trier | Round: 4 | Opponent: University Prep | Judge: Nathan Bennett 1Debt ceiling will be raised now but it’s not certain —- Obama’s ironclad political capital is forcing the GOP to give inBeutler 10/3 ("Republicans finally confronting reality: They’re trapped21," Salon http://www.salon.com/2013/10/03/republicans_finally_confronting_reality_theyre_trapped/-http://www.salon.com/2013/10/03/republicans_finally_confronting_reality_theyre_trapped/) Engagement with Latin America’s a fight in congress – saps PCMeyer and Sullivan ’12 ~Peter J. Meyer - Analyst in Latin American Affairs and Mark P. Sullivan - Specialist in Latin American Affairs, "U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and FY2013 Appropriations", June 26th, 2012, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf-http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf~~ Obama’s PC is key – bully pulpitThe Citizen 10/3 (Guy Cosentino, Former Mayor of Auburn, "Cosentino: Obama Needs to Show Leadership" http://auburnpub.com/columnists/guy_cosentino/cosentino-obama-needs-to-show-leadership/article_1719a103-9a90-5062-bfdd-057ef128d2f8.html) Default destroys the global economyKrugman 9/29 (Paul, Nobel Prize winning economist, "Rebels without a Clue," NEW YORK TIMES, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/30/opinion/krugman-rebels-without-a-clue.html-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/30/opinion/krugman-rebels-without-a-clue.html) Global nuclear warHarris 26 Burrows 9 (Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf) 2A. Interpretation – "economic engagement" means the aff must be an exclusively economic action – it cannot encompass broader forms of engagementJakstaite, 10 - Doctoral Candidate Vytautas Magnus University Faculty of Political Sciences and Diplomacy (Lithuania) (Gerda, "CONTAINMENT AND ENGAGEMENT AS MIDDLE-RANGE THEORIES" BALTIC JOURNAL OF LAW 26 POLITICS VOLUME 3, NUMBER 2 (2010), DOI: 10.2478/v10076-010-0015-7) B. Violation – the affirmative just gives back the landC. Voting issue –1. Limits – they explode the topic – blurring the lines between economic and other forms of engagement makes any positive interaction with another country topical. It’s impossible to predict or prepare2. Ground – the economic limit is vital to critiques of economics, trade disads, and non-economic counterplans31. State action and institutional ethics makes anti-blackness worse - erases the exploitation of the black bodyWilderson in 2003, 2. The world writ large and civil society are preconditioned on the destruction of the black positionalityWilderson in 2003, 3. The black body has no ontological resistance this social death of the black body is the continuation of slavery and non-existence.That is Wilderson in 10, award-winning author of Incognegro: A Memoir of Exile and Apartheid. He is one of two Americans to hold elected office in the African National Congress and is a former insurgent in the ANC’s armed wing, 2010 (Frank B. III "Chapter One: The Ruse of Analogy" Red, White, 26 Black: Cinema and the Structure of U.S. Antagonisms,) (GC) 4. The alternative is to reject the affirmative as an act of burning down the structure of hierarchy that produces violence against the slave. Freedom is an illusion created by the shackles of civil society, and abandoning the pursuit for equality is the only way to break down the way that whiteness maintains itself.Farley ’05 (Anthony Paul, Professor of Law @ Boston College, "Perfecting Slavery", 1/27/2005, http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=102826context=lsfp –-http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=102826context=lsfp20- ~SG~) CaseHow We DebateThe impossibility to attain knowledge of every outcome or abuse leaves utilitarianism as the only option for most rational decision-makingGoodin 95 – Professor of Philosophy at the Research School of the Social Sciences at the Australian National University (Robert E., Cambridge University Press, "Utilitarianism As a Public Philosophy" pg 63) Extinction is a qualitatively different impact-our nuclear war discourse is also goodSandberg et al 8 - Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, PhD in computational neuroscience from Stockholm University and is a postdoctoral research assistant for the EU Enhance project Anders, James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, PhD in computational neuroscience from Stockholm University and is a postdoctoral research assistant for the EU Enhance project; Jason Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. He is also a special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and co-founder of New Harvest; and Milan ?irkovi?, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade. He is also an assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro ,"How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction-http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction In 1983, discussion of human extinction re-emerged when Carl Sagan and others Utilitarianism is the only moral framework and alternatives are contradictoryNye, 86 (Joseph S. 1986; Phd Political Science Harvard. University; Served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs; "Nuclear Ethics" pg. 18-19) Humans can be happy as long as they liveDiener, Biswas-Diener ’08-psychologist, professor, and author, senior While you may not be a climber, you can likely recognize the metaphorical implications ColonialismUS Imperialism Inevitable- History showsKhodaee 11 (Esfandiar, American Studies at Tehran University, "Is imperialism Inevitable for America?" July 19, 2011, http://peace.blog.com/2011/07/19/imperialism/-http://peace.blog.com/2011/07/19/imperialism/) Imperialism takes root from human nature. In history we see whenever a country had And this adv doesn’t make sense – the U.S is not getting out of gitmo to stop all imperialism – it’s the opposite – we are trying to gain credibility so when we do invade another country, we’ll have enough clout. The plan accomplishes the opposite of its intents – increases imperialism.No solvency – Guantanamo showcases U.S. imperialism, but closure doesn’t overcome alt causesGreenberg, 12 (Karen J., historian, professor, and author. She is Director of the Center on National Security at Fordham University’s School of Law, Imagining a world without Guantanamo, January 12, 2012, Online, Washington Post Opinions, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-01-12/opinions/35438031_1_detainees-guantanamo-bay-indefinite-detention-http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-01-12/opinions/35438031_1_detainees-guantanamo-bay-indefinite-detention Alt causes would outweigh – oncoming invasion of Syria, a war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Cannot overcome the past 50 years of countless interventions and building anti-americanism.. Security inevitableGuzzini, Senior Research Fellow at the Copenhagen Peace Research Institute, 98 Associate Professor of Political Science, International Relations, and European Studies at the Central European University in Budapest, 1998 (Stefano, Realism in International Relations, p. 212) Therefore, in a third step, this chapter also claims that it is impossible just to heap realism onto the dustbin of history and start anew. 9. Security logic is emancipatingAnthony Burke, Associate Professor of Politics and International Relations in the University of New South Wales, June 2007, "What Security Makes Possible: Some thoughts on critical security studies" Department of International Relations, University of New South Wales, pg. 6-8 | 10/17/13 |
1NC Round 4 St MarksTournament: St Marks | Round: 4 | Opponent: GBS | Judge: Sawyer Collier 1====LAC’s strongly prefer China now but if the US establishes a stronger policy towards the region it will flip==== US engagement trades off with ChinaEllis 12 (R. Evan Ellis is an Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University "The United States, Latin America and China: A "Triangular Relationship"?" http://theedmundsgroup.com/assetmanager/assets/US20China20Latin20America20-20A20Triangular20Relationship20.pdf) Key to China’s economy—the plan locks China out of the marketsEllis 11 Access to Latin American Markets. Latin American markets are becoming increasingly valuable for Chinese As our discussion on¶ complexity theory¶ illustrates, once a complexsystem reaches a 2A. Interpretation – "economic engagement" means the aff must be an exclusively economic action – it cannot encompass broader forms of engagementJakstaite, 10 - Doctoral Candidate Vytautas Magnus University Faculty of Political Sciences and Diplomacy (Lithuania) (Gerda, "CONTAINMENT AND ENGAGEMENT AS MIDDLE-RANGE THEORIES" BALTIC JOURNAL OF LAW 26 POLITICS VOLUME 3, NUMBER 2 (2010), DOI: 10.2478/v10076-010-0015-7) B. Violation – Energy, environment, and tech assistance are non-economic engagementAustralian Government, 11 ("The White Paper and Australia’s Strategic Relationship with China", 9/28 C. Voting issue –1. Limits – they explode the topic – blurring the lines between economic and other forms of engagement makes any positive interaction with another country topical. It’s impossible to predict or prepare2. Ground – the economic limit is vital to critiques of economics, trade disads, and non-economic counterplans3Sorry you’re going to have to come up with a new aff. The THA passed. This card is from today. You are no longer inherent. Inherency is a voting issue because it kills all neg ground for CPs, Das, and any good case args. There is no way we can win a plan that has already passed is bad.OGL 10.18.13 (OGL, Michaut is a blogger for OGL, "SENATE PASSES US-MEXICO DRILLING PACT" 10/18 ,http://oilandgaslogistics.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/senate-passes-us-mexico-drilling-pact/) The U.S. Senate passed a bill last Saturday that would implement the Plan is not inherent. It just passed today. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but you will be needing a new aff.Ben Geman. 10.18.13 (Ben, is an Energy and environment reporter for the Hill, "Senate clears bill to implement drilling pact", The Hill, RegulationWatch, http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/328235-senate-clears-bill-to-implement-us-mexico-offshore-drilling-pact) ¶ The Senate approved legislation Saturday to implement a U.S.-Mexico pact 4Momentum from shutdown fight gives Obama the PC necessary to pass immigration reformMcMorris-Santoro 10/15 (BuzzFeed White House Reporter. "Obama Has Already Won The Shutdown Fight And He’s Coming For Immigration Next" http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/obama-has-already-won-the-shutdown-fight-and-hes-coming-for) Obama’s PC is key to passing immigration – needs to keep the pressure on the GOPBalz 10/17 (Dan, journalist at The Washington Post, where he has been a political correspondent since 1978. "Can Obama seize the moment and make Washington work?" http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-obama-seize-the-moment-to-make-washington-work/2013/10/17/d84c1934-3753-11e3-80c6-7e6dd8d22d8f_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop) Engagement with Latin America’s a fight in congressMeyer and Sullivan ’12 ~Peter J. Meyer - Analyst in Latin American Affairs and Mark P. Sullivan - Specialist in Latin American Affairs, "U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and FY2013 Appropriations", June 26th, 2012, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf-http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42582.pdf~~ CIR’s key to Latin American relationsShifter 12 Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. "Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America," April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf Relations are key to solve a laundry list of existential threats—-the brink is nowShifter 12 Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. "Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America," April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf RelationsNo internal link to oil shocks – should have been triggered by sq drug violenceMexican economy resilientNevaer, 09 MERIDA, Mexico – The economic crisis sweeping the globe has spared no nation, Investor confidence low now, but economy set to pick up, investment will follow.Amaral Fundweb Writer 7-17-13 In Conway’s view, the decision of diving into the market should really be linked to the time horizon that each investor has in their investment strategy. "Money invested today will show a very good return in a three-year horizon," he says. "The problem is between now and the end of the year, when you could still see some underperformance of emerging markets. There could be in the very near term a better buying opportunity." No internal link – Mexico’s economy won’t spillover to the global economyNo historical connection between economic collapse and conflictFerguson, 06 Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal ====No internal link – peak oil means they will have a difficult time finding oil to solve for relations ==== ====Relations high – Biden kicked off HLED solves all major impacts ==== Relations are fundamentally strong and growingSlack 13 (Megan Slack, White House Blog. "President Obama Reaffirms the United States-Mexico Relationship" May 3, 2013. www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/05/03/president-obama-reaffirms-united-states-mexico-relationship) On the first day of his trip to Mexico and Costa Rica, President Obama ====Drug cooperation high ==== Drug violence is decliningWSJ 6-28-13 (Wall Street Journal, "Mexico Sees Decline in Drug-Related Killings", June 28th, 2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324328204578573760968965312.html) Can’t solve drug violence – Cooperation has only caused violence to escalate – their evidence doesn’t have a method to resolve the current problems with US intervention====Widespread corruption means attempts to solve drug violence inevitably fail==== EconMexican EconPEMEX is doing deep water drilling joint ventures nowPenn Energy, 2013 ("Petrofac wins PEMEX deepwater drilling contract offshore Mexico," 3/12/13, http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2013/03/petrofac-wins-pemex-deepwater-drilling-contract-offshore-mexico.html) Mexican economy resilientNevaer, 09 MERIDA, Mexico – The economic crisis sweeping the globe has spared no nation, No internal link – sq border security solves for refugee flowTerrorists won’t pursue or use nuclear weaponsWaltz, 03 For terrorists who abandon tactics of disruption and harassment in favor of dealing in wholesale No way for terrorists to produce a nuke on their own – Iraq provesKamp, 96 Reports of nuclear smuggling appear to lend added weight to the idea that terrorists can No internal link – risk of bioterror attack extremely low and even if few would be affected at the borderThere is no bioterrorist threat. The most sophisticated terrorist group ever tried attacking with a biological agent 9 times and the attacks were so bad no one even noticed they were happening.Mueller, 05 Properly developed and deployed, biological weapons could indeed, if thus far only in No Peak oil –dependence declining nowHinkle 6-13-12 Well, here we are at summer, 2012. The Chicago Tribune reports that Empirically, there will be no resource wars – oil is not an exceptionSalehyan 8 First, the deterministic view has poor predictive power as to where and when conflicts Hegemony is resilient – the US is way ahead of everyone elseBrooks and Wohlforth, 08 "Nothing has ever existed like this disparity of power; nothing," historian Paul Oil SpillsOceans and marine bio-D are resilient – alarmist predictions empirically denied and climate change proves Recent oil spills should’ve already triggered the link Status quo solves environmental cooperation –Pemex signed an agreement to work with US firmsQuinn 12 ~Andrew Quinn, director of the fellowship at the Aspen Institute—an international nonprofit dedicated to fostering enlightened leadership and open- minded dialogue, "Mexico, U.S. sign cross-border deep water oil deal", February 20, 2012, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/20/us-mexico-oil-us-idUSTRE81J1G020120220~~ Their impact is inevitable-TBA only covers a set area, Pemex will drill by themselves in other areas causing other spills 1. Empirically denied and alternate causality – hundreds of thousands of species die annuallyPaltrowitz, 01 However, the panel did not take into account the practical reality that negotiations are 2. Species extinction won’t cause human extinction – humans and the environment are adaptableDoremus, 2K In recent years, this discourse frequently has taken the form of the ecological horror 3. Collapse is common – won’t spillover4. New species fill the voidKerr, 94 In the immediate aftermath of an extinction, some taxa – groups of animals such as species or genera – flourish, then gradually fade. Others that had apparently vanished can reappear, Lazarus-like. In the turmoil, new groups may gain ascendancy, filling ecological niches left empty by the extinction and displacing other survivors to create a new ecological order (See box on p.29). 5. No spillover to other speciesMoore, 98 Nevertheless, the loss of a class of living beings does not typically threaten other 6. Ecosystem redundancy prevents collapseDavidson, 2K Biodiversity limits. The original rivet metaphor (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1981) referred to | 10/31/13 |
1NC Round 6Tournament: New Trier | Round: 6 | Opponent: Valley DB | Judge: 1The call for equality will always fail. Civil society produces a perfected form of slavery, that masks violence through reformFarley ’05 (Anthony Paul, Professor of Law at Boston College, "Perfecting Slavery", 1/27/2005, http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=102826context=lsfp, ~SG~) The aff’s strategy of inclusion can never account for the black body- blackness is the presence of absence that can never access freedomWilderson ’08 (Frank B., Professor of Drama @ UC Irvine, "Biko and the Problematic of Presence", Palgrave Macmillon 2008 addition, http://wfeet.za.net/biko_lives_contesting_the.pdf~~23page=106-http://wfeet.za.net/biko_lives_contesting_the.pdf, ~SG~) The world writ large and civil society are preconditioned on the destruction of the black positionalityWilderson in 2003, The black body has no ontological resistance this social death of the black body is the continuation of slavery and non-existence.That is Wilderson in 10, award-winning author of Incognegro: A Memoir of Exile and Apartheid. He is one of two Americans to hold elected office in the African National Congress and is a former insurgent in the ANC’s armed wing, 2010 (Frank B. III "Chapter One: The Ruse of Analogy" Red, White, 26 Black: Cinema and the Structure of U.S. Antagonisms,) (GC) The alternative is to reject the affirmative as an act of burning down the structure of hierarchy that produces violence against the slave. Freedom is an illusion created by the shackles of civil society, and abandoning the pursuit for equality is the only way to break down the way that whiteness maintains itself.Farley ’05 (Anthony Paul, Professor of Law @ Boston College, "Perfecting Slavery", 1/27/2005, http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=102826context=lsfp –-http://lawdigitalcommons.bc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=102826context=lsfp20- ~SG~) 2A. Interpretation: The affirmative must advance an instrumental defense of the United States federal government substantially increasing economic engagement toward a topic country.First, "Resolved" proves the framework for the resolution is to enact a policyWords and Phrases 64 —- (Words and Phrases, Permanent Edition) And, The USFG is the government in Washington D.C.Encarta Online Encyclopedia 2k —- (Encarta Online Encyclopedia, 2000, http://encarta.msn.com-http:encarta.msn.com/) B. Violation: The plan does not defend the fiat and implementation of a plan through the USFGC. This interpretation is best:1. Limits, if the affirmative does not defend the resolution, there are an infinite number of non-falsifiable and personal claims that they can make, this destroys predictable ground, which is key to portable skills and topic education.And setting the role of discussion is a prior questionShively 2K —- (Ruth Shively is a professor of political science at Texas A26M University, 2000, Political Theory and Partisan Politics, p. 181-2) Limits are key, especially in the context of political theoryLutz 2k —- (Donald S. Lutz is a Professor of Political Science at The University of Houston, 2000, "Political Theory and Partisan Politics", p. 39-40) And we control the external impact, abandoning politics cedes it to the elites, this causes war, slavery, and authoritarianismBoggs 2k —- (Carol Boggs is a professor of Political Science at the University of Southern California, 2000, "The End of Politics", p. 250-251) Second is fairness – it is impossible to be negative in their world. If the affirmative is not constrained by the topic, they get to just speak in general about the horrors of racism, talk about their personal experiences or interpret the resolution any way they see fit. These claims are nearly unlimited in scope, non-falsifiable, impossible to predict, and unfair for the team that is forced to debate against it. Third, defending a topical affirmative is the only way to ensure that teams must Switch-side debate strengthens conviction as we learn the nuances of our argumentDybvig and Iverson 2k —- (Kristin Dybvig is a professor of communications at ASU and Joel Iverson is a professor of communications at the University of Montana, 2000, "Can Cutting Cards Carve Into Our Personal Lives: An Analysis of Debate Research on Personal Advocacy", http://debate.uvm.edu/dybvigiverson1000.html)** Decisionmaking—debate over a controversial point of action creates argumentative stasis—that’s key to avoid a devolution of debate into competing truth claims-Steinberg, lecturer of communication studies – University of Miami, and Freeley, Boston based attorney who focuses on criminal, personal injury and civil rights law, ’8 Debate is a means of settling differences, so there must be a difference of CaseBiopowerNo solvency – even after released from Gitmo, people are still reduced to bare life – The plan action isn’t enough to solve the wide-ranging biopolitical conflicts of the squoColatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of the Iowa Sociological Association, "Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben," Journal for Critical Education Policy Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 107-108, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf-http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf Wrong starting point – aff fails to conceptualize the detainee for who they really are – just seen as sovereign placards – leads to failed policy-making and diverts actions away from prioritiesJohns 05 Fleur - Lecturer, University of Sydney Faculty of Law, Sydney "Guantánamo Bay and the Annihilation of the Exception" www.ejil.org/pdfs/16/4/311.pdf No spillover solvency – Agamben’s theories don’t answer key questions – solving just in the instance of Gitmo doesn’t give us tools to solve the harms elsewhereColatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of the Iowa Sociological Association, "Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben," Journal for Critical Education Policy Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 102-103, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf-http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf, accessed 7/23/13) PE Gitmo isn’t key – Agamben ignores too much historical oppressionColatrella, 11 (Steven, taught at Bard College, the New School and the American University of Rome, Fulbright scholar, Chair of the Department of Political and Social Sciences at John Cabot University in Rome and President of the Iowa Sociological Association, "Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben," Journal for Critical Education Policy Studies, vol.9. no.1, page 106, November 2011, Online, http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf-http://www.jceps.com/PDFs/09-1-05.pdf, accessed 7/23/13) PE Pragmatism and political representations promote change to help Latin AmericaMargheritis and Pereira ’07 (Ana- assistant professor of international relations and Latin American politics at the University of Florida and Anthony- associate professor of political science at Tulane University; "The Neoliberal Turn in Latin America: The Cycle of Ideas and the Search for an Alternative"; Latin American Perspectives, Vol. 34, No. 3, Contested Transformation (May, 2007),pp. 25-48) Their Impacts rely on a flawed, totalizing amount of biopowerDickinson 2004 (Edward Ross, University of Cincinnati, Central European History, v37, n1, p.34-36) ====1. No aff offense==== A. Closing Guantanamo only leads to more facilities like itCohen et al. 5 (Jack Spencer; Director, Roe Institute, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.; Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, James Phillips; Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs, and Alane Kochems; Policy Analyst, National Security, The Heritage Founda¬ tion, "No Good Reason To Close Gitmo" http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/06/no-good-reason-to-close-gitmo-http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/06/no-good-reason-to-close-gitmo) B. There is no legal difference in the facilitiesCohen et al. 5 (Jack Spencer; Director, Roe Institute, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.; Senior Research Fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, James Phillips; Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs, and Alane Kochems; Policy Analyst, National Security, The Heritage Founda¬ tion, "No Good Reason To Close Gitmo" http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/06/no-good-reason-to-close-gitmo-http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/06/no-good-reason-to-close-gitmo) 2. Turna.) Guantanamo key to carribean securityBerrigan, 2008 (Frida Berrigan, Senior Research Associate at the World Policy Institute’s Arms Trade Resource Center. A graduate of Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts, Frida spent six months as an editorial intern at the Nation magazine before joining the World Policy Institute in early 1999, "Guantanamo: The Bigger Picture", New America Foundation, March 17, 2008, http://www.newamerica.net/node/9077-http://www.newamerica.net/node/9077) Navy Commander Jeffery D. Gordon explains that the U.S. presence at Guantanamo serves "a vital role in Caribbean regional security, protection from narco-trafficking and terrorism and safeguards against mass migration attempts in unseaworthy craft." The Navy’s Atlantic fleet is based there and the base is described as being "on the front lines of the battle for regional security." b.) Caribbean terrorism leads to attack on the US—-they’ll use bioweaponsBryan 1 (Anthony T. Bryan, director of the North-South Center’s Caribbean Program, 10-21-2001. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p. c.) ExtinctionAnders Sandberg 8, is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. ?irkovi?, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction-http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction | 10/17/13 |
1NC Round 7 St MarksTournament: St Marks | Round: 7 | Opponent: Coppell | Judge: Abbas Makuch 1Text: The Federal Government of Mexico should modernize the US-Mexico border.Mexico can do it – US aid empirically not necessaryRama and Gardner 12 (Anahi Rama and Simon Gardner, writters for Reuters. 7/03/12. "Mexico’s president-elect may double security spending: aide". Chicago Tribune. articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-07-03/news/sns-rt-us-mexico-election-securitybre86301s-20120703_1_enrique-pena-nieto-drug-violence-fight-drug) MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto will seek 2Momentum from shutdown fight gives Obama the PC necessary to pass immigration reformMcMorris-Santoro 10/15 (BuzzFeed White House Reporter. "Obama Has Already Won The Shutdown Fight And He’s Coming For Immigration Next" http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/obama-has-already-won-the-shutdown-fight-and-hes-coming-for) Obama’s PC is key to passing immigration – needs to keep the pressure on the GOPBalz 10/17 (Dan, journalist at The Washington Post, where he has been a political correspondent since 1978. "Can Obama seize the moment and make Washington work?" http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/can-obama-seize-the-moment-to-make-washington-work/2013/10/17/d84c1934-3753-11e3-80c6-7e6dd8d22d8f_story.html?tid=pm_politics_pop) Economic engagement with Mexico’s politically divisiveWilson ’13 Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International. Center for Scholars (Christopher E., January, "A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf) CIR’s key to Latin American relationsShifter 12 Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. "Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America," April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf Relations are key to solve a laundry list of existential threats—-the brink is nowShifter 12 Michael is the President of Inter-American Dialogue. "Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America," April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf 3A. Interpretation – "economic engagement" means the aff must be an exclusively economic action – it cannot encompass broader forms of engagementJakstaite, 10 - Doctoral Candidate Vytautas Magnus University Faculty of Political Sciences and Diplomacy (Lithuania) (Gerda, "CONTAINMENT AND ENGAGEMENT AS MIDDLE-RANGE THEORIES" BALTIC JOURNAL OF LAW 26 POLITICS VOLUME 3, NUMBER 2 (2010), DOI: 10.2478/v10076-010-0015-7) B. Violation – the affirmative ~uses non-economic instruments ~C. Voting issue –1. Limits – they explode the topic – blurring the lines between economic and other forms of engagement makes any positive interaction with another country topical. It’s impossible to predict or prepare2. Ground – the economic limit is vital to critiques of economics, trade disads, and non-economic counterplans4The 1AC ’s problem-solution rhetoric addresses danger from a managerial perspective. This way of being educates us in to believing that the earth and humans are disposable tools.McWhorter 92 (Ladelle, Heidegger and the Earth Essays in Environmental Philosophy, Thomas Jefferson University Press, pg.6) The danger of a managerial approach to the world lies not, then, in In order to find a different relationship to technology the alternative is to do nothing because only doing nothing allows for a new destining of being.Harman in 09 (Graham, Professor of Philosophy @ American University in Cairo, "Cambridge Journal of Economics", 2009, Vol. 34(1), Technology, objects and things in Heidegger p.17-25) Another word in Heidegger’s constellation of technology terms is danger, which turns out to MeltdownsTurn - Plan forces security cuts – counterproductive at bestUCS 9/10(Union of Concerned Scientists, a group of top-notch scientists that research potential threats that politics and the media don’t see and reveal them to the general public. "Small Modular Nuclear Reactors Won’t Solve Nuclear Power’s Safety, Security and Cost Problems, New Report Finds" http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html-http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html) ====SMRs are costly, inefficient and increase the chances of an attack – ==== Squo solves – Nuclear power is already prominent is Mexico and Laguna Verde is being protected.Navarro ’10 (Carlos Navarro, Editor/Writer at University of New Mexico, Past Reporter 26 Copy Editor at Knight-Ridder Financial News, Education: Texas A26M International University, Loyola University New Orleans, Warren Easton High School."Mexican Government, Congress Support Nuclear Power to Varying Degrees; Detractors Want Laguna Verde Power Plant Closed" Most recent date specified is 2010. http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/12618/Mexican20Government,20Congress20Support20Nuclear 20Power20to20Varying20Degrees3B20Detractors20Want20Laguna20Verde20Power20Plant20Closed.pdf?sequence=1-http://repository.unm.edu/bitstream/handle/1928/12618/Mexican Government, Congress Support Nuclear25 20Power to Varying Degrees3B Detractors Want Laguna Verde Power Plant Closed.pdf?sequence=1) 4. No Impact– average death in all meltdowns is 400 deathsCohen, no date (Bernard L, Prof at the U of Pittsburgh. "Risks of Nuclear Power" http://physics.isu.edu/radinf/np-risk.htm) WarmingSMRs don’t solve anything – multiple warrantsMakhijani ’11 (Dr. Arjun Makhijani is president of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, "The problems with small nuclear reactors." The Congress Blog, 6/15/11, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-a-environment/166609-the-problems-with-small-nuclear-reactors~~23ixzz2hx6Y2QjZ ) JJV SMRs are less cost-competitive – harms outweigh the benefits, if any.USC 9/26 (Union of Concerned Scientists, a group of top-notch scientists that research potential threats that politics and the media don’t see and reveal them to the general public. "Small Modular Nuclear Reactors Won’t Solve Nuclear Power’s Safety, Security and Cost Problems, New Report Finds" http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html-http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html) China already solves all SMR impactsYurman ’12 (Dan, Sr. Project Planner at Vantage Partners LLC¶ Past¶ Communications Strategies 26 Services for Energy Technologies at Independent Consultant;Self Employed¶ Project Manager at CH2MHill¶ IT Project Manager at Bechtel¶ see all¶ Education¶ University of Colorado Denver¶ Fairleigh Dickinson University, "2012 ~ The year that was in nuclear energy" http://ansnuclearcafe.org/category/small-modular-reactors/-http://ansnuclearcafe.org/category/small-modular-reactors/) JJV Delays kill solvency – It will take too long create a safe version of SMRs and costs too much too solve warming if we’re really on the brinkUSC 9/26 (Union of Concerned Scientists, a group of top-notch scientists that research potential threats that politics and the media don’t see and reveal them to the general public. "Small Modular Nuclear Reactors Won’t Solve Nuclear Power’s Safety, Security and Cost Problems, New Report Finds" http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html-http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html) No impact - There are multiple logical barriers that preclude any state from supplying terrorists with WMDs – makes nuclear terrorism IMPOSSIBLE.Walt, 7/25/13 (Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, where he served as academic dean from 2002-2006, 7/25/13, "Why We Don’t Need to Worry About a ’Nuclear Handoff’", Foreign Policy, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/25/why_we_dont_need_to_worry_about_a_nuclear_handoff, Accessed 9/3/13, NC)¶ After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. national security establishment started focusing on the various ways that "international terrorism" might pose a threat to U.S. interests or the United States itself. Unsurprisingly, experts began to dream up all sorts of frightening scenarios and worry about all sorts of far-fetched scenarios. I remember this period well, and I recall sitting through seminars and workshops at which lots of very smart and creative people were imagining various nasty things that groups like al Qaeda might try to do. Hijack gas trucks and blow up the Lincoln Tunnel? Take over the Mall of America and create carnage on a big shopping day? Commandeer a supertanker and smash it into the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge? Wait until summer and then set forest fires all over the American West? The list of conceivable dangers was infinitely long, but if you sat in enough of those seminars, you could easily become convinced that it was only a matter of time before somebody did something really nasty to you or your loved ones.¶ Imagination is one thing, but disciplined risk assessment is another. It’s easy to dream up bad things that could conceivably happen, but intelligent public policy should rest on a more careful and sustained appraisal of how likely those various scary things are. And that’s why I suggest you read Keir Lieber and Daryl Press’s recent article in the journal International Security on "Why States Won’t Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists."¶ The fear that nuclear-armed states would hand weapons to terrorists has been a staple of U.S. threat-mongering ever since 9/11. It was a key part of the justification for invading Iraq in 2003, and it forms part of the constant drumbeat for military action against Iran. But it never made much sense for two reasons. First, a nuclear-armed state has little incentive to give up control over weapons it has labored long and hard to acquire, for what could the state possibly gain from doing so? Second, a state giving nuclear weapons to terrorists could never be sure that those weapons would not be traced back to it and thereby invite devastating retaliation.¶ Lieber and Press examine the historical record and show that it is almost impossible to conduct a major terrorist operation and not be blamed for it. Here’s the abstract for their article:¶ "Many experts consider nuclear terrorism the single greatest threat to U.S. security. The fear that a state might transfer nuclear materials to terrorists was a core justification for the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and, more recently, for a strike against Iran’s nuclear program. The logical basis for this concern is sound: if a state could orchestrate an anonymous nuclear terror attack, it could destroy an enemy yet avoid retaliation. But how likely is it that the perpetrators of nuclear terrorism could remain anonymous?¶ Data culled from a decade of terrorist incidents reveal that attribution is very likely after high-casualty terror attacks. Attribution rates are even higher for attacks on the U.S. homeland or the territory of a major U.S. ally — 97 percent for incidents in which ten or more people were killed. Moreover, tracing a terrorist group that used a nuclear weapon to its state sponsor would not be difficult, because few countries sponsor terror; few terror groups have multiple sponsors; and only one country that sponsors terrorism, Pakistan, has nuclear weapons or enough material to manufacture them. If leaders understand these facts, they will be as reluctant to give weapons to terrorists as they are to use them directly; both actions would invite devastating retaliation."¶ I might add that this is the kind of important, nonpartisan, policy-relevant work that more social scientists ought to be doing. It is also important to disseminate these findings widely, so that 1) U.S. policymakers won’t keep chasing phantom dangers, 2) the leaders of nuclear-armed states understand that their arsenals are good for deterrence and not much else, and 3) said leaders also understand the need to keep whatever weapons they might have under very reliable control.¶ 4. No Impact– average death in all meltdowns is 400 deathsCohen, no date (Bernard L, Prof at the U of Pittsburgh. "Risks of Nuclear Power" http://physics.isu.edu/radinf/np-risk.htm) 1. Empirically denied – diseases have been around forever and haven’t caused extinction. Plus, genetic diversity ensures that some humans will always survive.3. Multiple alternate causalities to diseaseBrower, 03 This year’s outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Beijing, Hong 4. Microbiology research solves the disease impact—humans won’t be part of the extinctionHealth, 99 So maybe we do need them. Could the information in them have practical uses? A hard fact 4. Intervention checks – if 50 of the population started dying, people would take precautions to prevent future outbreaks.5. Medicine solves — old diseases would never rise again to kill us all — penicillin is awesome — it solves the botanic plague, hydration solves Ebola, and small pox has pretty much been eradicated.6. Most diseases are dumb — they can’t kill us all the only disease close to this is HIV but if people started releasing this or it actually became a pandemic people would probably start figuring out how to treat it.Water forces cooperation, not warsWolf et al, 06 Empirically, there will be no resource wars. Even if they win a risk of their impact, it stays localizedSalehyan, 8 (Idean Salehyan (Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas) May 2008 "From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet*" Journal of Peace Research, vol. 45, no. 3, http://emergingsustainability.org/files/resolver20climate20change20and20conflict.pdf) 2. Multiple alt causes the Aff can’t solveJournal of Commerce, 12 ("Agriculture Trade a ’Risky Business’", April 16, Proquest) NK 4. Famine inevitable – economic recessionIndependent Media Institution, 8 (http://www.alternet.org/environment/87071/) 7. Hunger related deaths decliningThe Hunger Project, 8("Decline in the number of hunger related deaths," http://www.thp.org/reports/decline.htm) New tech solves the impact – no famine because farmers can produce more foodZubrin 11 (Dr. Robert Zubrin, president of Pioneer Astronautics, Senior Fellow with the Center for Security Policy "WHY IT’S WRONG TO AGREE WITH THE MALTHUSIANS ABOUT ETHANOL" May 13, 2011http:www.ilcorn.org/daily-update/182-why-it-rsquo-s-wrong-to-agree-with-the-malthusians-about-ethanol/)-http://www.ilcorn.org/daily-update/182-why-it-rsquo-s-wrong-to-agree-with-the-malthusians-about-ethanol/)// CG . Utilities are transitioning to natural gas now – it’s because of low prices, not regulationsBertrand 12 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson said Monday her environmental policies 1. Empirically denied and alternate causality – hundreds of thousands of species die annuallyPaltrowitz, 01 However, the panel did not take into account the practical reality that negotiations are 3. Collapse is common – won’t spillover and adaption checks4. New species fill the voidKerr, 94 In the immediate aftermath of an extinction, some taxa – groups of animals such as species or genera – flourish, then gradually fade. Others that had apparently vanished can reappear, Lazarus-like. In the turmoil, new groups may gain ascendancy, filling ecological niches left empty by the extinction and displacing other survivors to create a new ecological order (See box on p.29). 1. Icebergs are a negative feedback – none of their evidence takes this into accountMacfarlane, 09 Melting icebergs, so long the iconic image of global warming, are triggering a 2. Newest studies prove that CO2 is not anthropogenic – emissions from fossil fuels only stay in the atmosphere for five years and natural forcings are more importantMarohasy, 09 If carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels only stayed in the atmosphere a few years 3. Growing emissions in developing countries make CO2 reduction impossible – modeling is irrelevantKoetzle, 08 For example, if the United States were to unilaterally reduced emissions by 30 4. Observational data proves warming has stopped – the multi-decadal oscillation overwhelms CO2 forcingAkasofu, 08 Recent studies by the Hadley Climate Research Center (UK), the Japan Meteorological Agency Natural GasThey have no internal link – SMRs actually increase waste – turn – they produce nuclear waste that builds up and causes radiationSMRs force the NRC to lower to standards for safety – they’re not properly designed, therefore ineffective and dangerous.USC 9/26 (Union of Concerned Scientists, a group of top-notch scientists that research potential threats that politics and the media don’t see and reveal them to the general public. "Small Modular Nuclear Reactors Won’t Solve Nuclear Power’s Safety, Security and Cost Problems, New Report Finds" http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html-http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_technology/small-modular-reactors.html) 1. Even a giant methane burp would have a miniscule effectGao et al. 12 Overall, these results present, for the ?rst time, a quantitative insight on 2. No methane leaksCathles, 12 Howarth et al. were correct to highlight concerns that leakage of methane during production 7. Methane is good – Japan proves, more profits, gas boomBlackman ’13 (Sarah Blackman, an online reporter working across NRI Digital’s websites, covering renewable energy and growth within power markets, offshore oil drilling and the market for new and sustainable hydrocarbons, as well as reporting on the transport, health and hospitality sectors. "Methane hydrates: a new gas boom?" May 9, 2013. http://www.offshore-technology.com/features/featuremethane-hydrates-new-gas-boom-http://www.offshore-technology.com/features/featuremethane-hydrates-new-gas-boom** ) 8. The bubble burst of methane in the Gulf in 2010 should’ve triggered the impactHEGNo internal link – their links are based off of cooperation the aff does nothing to fix the congested borders in the sqLocal government at the borders are creating new border programs – solves the affAguilar 8-15 (Julian, Reporter at Texas Tribune, "A Federal Program to Ease Congestion at Border Crossings", The New York Times, August 15th 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/16/us/a-federal-program-to-ease-congestion-at-border-crossings.html?_r=0-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/16/us/a-federal-program-to-ease-congestion-at-border-crossings.html?_r=0, SD) Alternate causalities to an effective border policy — immigration and law enforcementO’Neil 13 — Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of the forthcoming book Two Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead (Oxford University Press, 2013), from which this essay is adapted (Shannon K. O’Neil, Council on Foreign Relations, March/April 2013, "Mexico Makes It", http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexico-makes/p30098-http://www.cfr.org/mexico/mexico-makes/p30098, Accessed 08-01-2013 | AK) For all these reasons, the United States should strengthen its relationship with its neighbor No impact to off-shoring:1) Wage increases and selective re-shoringHeineman, 3/26 (Ben, The Atlantic, 3/26/13, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/why-we-can-all-stop-worrying-about-offshoring-and-outsourcing/274388/, "Why We Can All Stop Worrying About Offshoring and Outsourcing," alp) Labor markets have for the past quarter century been at the center of the globalization 3) Reshoring doesn’t solve competitiveness – low skill and job redistribution- Offshoring creates large domestic markets abroad that benefit trade/multinationals and create an export market for expensive goods Put more generally, where in a typical American multinational company’s mission statement do the 2) Proximity – predictive ev that reshoring’s inevitable – unionization and regulation are alt causesFluser No date (Fluser, SEO Business Directory, no date, last updated 2013, "Re-Shoring, Off-Shoring, or Right-Shoring - Global Trade and Wages in the Balance," http://fluser.com/articles/re-shoring-off-shoring-or-right-shoring—global-trade-and-wages-in-the-balance-429.php-http://fluser.com/articles/re-shoring-off-shoring-or-right-shoring~-~-global-trade-and-wages-in-the-balance-429.php**, alp) There sure is a lot of talk about China taking jobs away from the United Manufacturing industry empirically resilientWSJ 11 (Wall Street Journal. 2/25/11. "The Truth About U.S. Manufacturing."online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703652104576122353274221570.html.html~23articleTabs3Darticle) Is American manufacturing dead? You might think so reading most of the nation’s editorial SQ solvesIgnatius, 12 Energy security would be one building block of a new prosperity. The other would No internal link to heg – past declines in the manufacturing industry didn’t lead to a loss of hegU.S.-Mexico relations are on the upswing – transition in focus and Obama’s recent visitNelson and Nicholas, 5/2/13 MEXICO CITY—President Barack Obama offered his support Thursday for Mexico’s shifting security strategy Hegemony is resilient – the US is way ahead of everyone elseBrooks and Wohlforth, 08 "Nothing has ever existed like this disparity of power; nothing," historian Paul Recently ratified TBA solves relations – leads to more cooperation – probably solves relations betterPascual, 13 The Transboundary Agreement is an important step in our national efforts tobetter secure our energy Double bind - SQ solves relations or relations are low which means impacts should have been triggeredEcon1. No impact because other actors check, the economy won’t decline enough, past recessions prove we’ll recover, and world war two wasn’t caused by the depression2. The economy is fine now. Further investment would hurt rather than helpDetroit News, 13 Washington — U.S. economic growth accelerated from January through March, buoyed 3. No historical connection between economic collapse and conflictFerguson, 06 Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal 4) No internal link – border infrastructure won’t stimulate the economy in the long term; infrastructure projects take too long5) The plans stimulus is too smallShostak, 10 But why should another stimulus program be effective given that the previous program appears to 6) Cross-apply WSJ relations good now8) US manufacturing resilient now more than ever – the plan does nothing to solve through cooperationsNo internal link to protectionism - their evidence isn’t in context of stopping foreign investors or increasing trade9) Protectionism won’t spiral out of control – interdependence.Marshall, 09 PREVENTING DISASTER Despite the risks, many analysts argue that a wholesale retreat into protectionism SolvencyMexico says no – Energy negotiations mean nothing else gets throughWashington Post 5-7-13, (Nick Miroff and William Booth, Contributors, March 7th, 2013, "The Americas", "To power Mexico forward, Peña Nieto looks to energy reform", http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-05-07/world/39073749_1_energy-industry-foreign-oil-petroleos-de-mexico-http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-05-07/world/39073749_1_energy-industry-foreign-oil-petroleos-de-mexico, accessed 7/12/13, LLM) Mexico remains the third-¶ largest source of foreign oil for the United States after | 10/31/13 |
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