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Cites
Entry
Date
1AC
Tournament: Wake Forest University | Round: 5 | Opponent: McDonogh PS | Judge: Maggie Davis Any Cite Requests, Email Me at: sanat_mohapatra@yahoo.com
Plan
The United States federal government should expand and make semi-permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de México-http://www.banxico.org.mx/.====
Advantage One is Banking:
Recent changes in monetary policy are causing massive sell-offs in emerging markets—Mexico is uniquely vulnerable
Prothero 6/28, Neil Prothero, Economist Intelligence Unit’s lead analyst on the UK, regular contributor to the independent economic forecasts produced by the UK Treasury and the Bank of England "The end isn’t nigh¶ Central bank challenges as the era of cheap money enters a new phase", Economics Intelligence Unit, http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The20end20isn~’t20nigh20-20July202013.pdf-http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The end isn't nigh - July 2013.pdf, June 28th 2013)
Investors have reacted with some alarm to indications that the US Federal Reserve could soon AND local and hard-currency emerging-market sovereign bonds have risen sharply.
Peso crisis inevitable in the status quo—Fed communication failures with the market locks in risk of economic contagion
Latin ?nancial markets must dig in for an extended period of volatility as policymakers grapple AND fall, trading at 12.96 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday.
Mexican exchange crisis would cause economic collapse
(Mishkin 99, Frederic S. Mishkin, American economist and professor at the Columbia Business School. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Lessons from the Tequila Crisis", Journal of Banking 26 Finance, 1999)
The first implication is that, in contrast to what happens in most industrialized countries AND a credit risk for banks that have made the foreign currency denominated loans.
Global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and accesses an internal link to the global economy
Last June, Peabody said Citigroup’s currency losses could reach 243 billion to 24 AND unaware and is likely to prove to be more detrimental than currently anticipated."
Collapse causes global instability
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center, AND and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4 The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, is the opposite of the first AND expected, with dire consequences for two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Banking solves warming and the environment – loans, green product, management strategies
Evangelinos 9 (Konstantinos I. Evangelinos, Research @ brown university, Antonis Skouloudis, Walter Leal Filho, Senior Professor at London Metropolitan University, Ioannis E. Nikolaou, Lecturer under contract in the Department of Environment at the University of the Aegean in the field of environmental economics, "An Analysis of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Sustainability Reporting Assessment in the Greek Banking Sector," Professionals’ Perspectives of Corporate Social 157 Responsibility, 2009, http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.10072F978-3-642-02630-0_9.pdf-http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.10072F978-3-642-02630-0_9.pdf)
In general terms, those organizations involved in the financial markets could indeed play an AND cost reduction, minimization of water and material use (McCammon, 1995).
Extinction
Deibel 07 ~Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. "Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft", Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today~
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as AND States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
Warming is real, anthropogenic, and serves as a conflict multiplier leading to extinction
Kaku 11 – Michio Kaku, co-creator of string field theory, a branch of string theory. He received a B.S. (summa cum laude) from Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. He went on to the Berkeley Radiation Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley and received a Ph.D. in 1972. In 1973, he held a lectureship at Princeton University. Michio continues Einstein’s search for a "Theory of Everything," seeking to unify the four fundamental forces of the universe—the strong force, the weak force, gravity and electromagnetism. He is the author of several scholarly, Ph.D. level textbooks and has had more than 70 articles published in physics journals, covering topics such as superstring theory, supergravity, supersymmetry, and hadronic physics. Professor of Physics — He holds the Henry Semat Chair and Professorship in theoretical physics at the City College of New York, where he has taught for over 25 years. He has also been a visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, as well as New York University (NYU). "Physics of the Future" http://213.55.83.52/ebooks/physics/Physics20of20the20Future.pdf Accessed 6/26/12 BJM
By midcentury, the full impact of a fossil fuel economy should be in full AND methane gas to be released, causing a runaway cycle of global warming.
The two board members who voted against the cut were hesitant to move ahead of AND a majority of policymakers noted the currency losses had not hurt inflation expectations.
Scenario One is Trade:
Volatility has indirect negative impacts on trade
Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431-http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431.pdf)
This also has another implication for exchange rate policy. Because peso devaluations correspond with AND dollar exchange rate and a policy that avoids devaluations altogether. Appendix Data Definition
Mexican trade spills over – geographic position creates unique opportunities
Mexico’s economic outlook is different than that of the rest of Latin America. Though AND configuration, with Mexico setting a model to other commodity-driven economies.
Trade protectionism causes nuclear war Panzner 8 (Michael, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and JPMorgan Chase, "Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future from Economic Collapse," p. 136-138)
The rise in isolationism and protectionism will bring about ever more heated arguments and dangerous AND between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war.
Trade solves war—economic interdependence
Deudney et al 9 (Daniel, professor of political science at John Hopkins, and John Ikenberry, professor of international affairs at Princeton, Foreign Affairs, "The Myth of Autocratic Revival," http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63721/daniel-deudney-and-g-john-ikenberry/the-myth-of-the-autocratic-revival) This bleak outlook is based on an exaggeration of recent developments and ignores powerful countervailing factors and forces. Indeed, contrary to what the revivalists describe, the most striking features of the contemporary international landscape are the intensification of economic globalization, thickening institutions, and shared problems of interdependence. The overall structure of the international system today is quite unlike that of the nineteenth century. Compared to older orders, the contemporary liberal centered international order provides a set of constraints and opportunities — of pushes and pulls — that reduce the likelihood of severe conflict while creating strong imperatives for cooperative problem solving. Those invoking the nineteenth century as a model for the twenty-first also fail to acknowledge the extent to which war as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete. Most important, nuclear weapons have transformed great-power war from a routine feature of international politics into an exercise in national suicide. With all of the great powers possessing nuclear weapons and ample means to rapidly expand their deterrent forces, warfare among these states has truly become an option of last resort. The prospect of such great losses has instilled in the great powers a level of caution and restraint that effectively precludes major revisionist efforts. Furthermore, the diffusion of small arms and the near universality of nationalism have severely limited the ability of great powers to conquer and occupy territory inhabited by resisting populations (as Algeria, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and now Iraq have demonstrated). Unlike during the days of empire building in the nineteenth century, states today cannot translate great asymmetries of power into effective territorial control; at most, they can hope for loose hegemonic relationships that require them to give something in return. Also unlike in the nineteenth century, today the density of trade, investment, and production networks across international borders raises even more the costs of war. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to take one of the most plausible cases of a future interstate war, would pose for the Chinese communist regime daunting economic costs, both domestic and international. Taken together, these changes in the economy of violence mean that the international system is far more primed for peace than the autocratic revivalists acknowledge.
Bergin 9 (Paul R., Professor of Economics @ UC Davis, Robert C. Feenstra, C. Bryan Cameron Distinguished Chair in International Economics @ UC Davis, Gordon H. Hanson, Professor of Economics; Pacific Economic Cooperation Chair in International Economic Relations @ UC San Diego, "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico’s Maquiladora Industry," American Economic Review 2009, 99:4, 1664-1671, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/25592525.pdf?acceptTC=true)
As a measure of volatility, we shall focus on the relative variance of employment AND this problem, the analysis is limited to the 1996-2005 period.
Responses to bioterrorism require rapid procurement and distribution of medical and pharmaceutical supplies, trained AND to the response supply chains for disease outbreaks and natural and manmade disasters.
Bioterror leads to extinction
Sandberg 8 – Anders, a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. ?irkovi?, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction-http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones. AND may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore’s Law.
Mexican Manufacturing is key to US aerospace production – suppliers
One industry flocking to Mexico for its lower cost structure and ample workforce is aerospace AND the top states in Mexico for the industry along with Chihuahua and Sonora.
Prevents China-Taiwan conflict and China Rise
Mosher 6 (Stephen Mosher, President of the Population Research Institute, CQ Congressional Testimony, "Chinese Influence on U.S. Foreign Policy," February 14, 2006, pg lexis)
The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare. AND American military assets in the Asian-Pacific will have to be neutralized.
Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."
China rise causes regional instability that draws every major power
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to the United States that the PRC does AND a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances.
Contention Three is Solvency:
Economic Engagement with Mexico now- DA’s are Non-UQ
The United States Embassy in Mexico city announced the expansion of its Business Facilitation Program AND .S. Embassy’s or Consulates’ Consular Section. According to the announcement:
We Solve
-derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse -swap lines solve mexico, empirics -alternative is capital controls Mehrotra et al 12 (Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf-http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ AND on inflows, ¶ minimum holding periods and currency-specific reserve requirements).
Empirical Solvency —confidence, crisis management
Olson et al 09 (Eric, senior advisor to the Security Initiative of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and has held senior positions at the Organization of American States, Amnesty International, and the Washington Office on Latin America, "The United States And Mexico: Towards a Strategic Partnership" A report of four working groups on U.S.-Mexico Relations, January 2009, www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The20U.S.20and20Mexico.20Towards20a20Strategic20Partnership.pdf-http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The U.S. and Mexico. Towards a Strategic Partnership.pdf NP) The interdependence of the two economies ¶ makes Mexico one of the most vulnerable ¶ AND ¶ authorities underscores the importance of timely and ¶ coordinated actions in crisis management
11/14/13
1AC Emory
Tournament: The Barkely Forum | Round: 6 | Opponent: Alpharetta RS | Judge: Kevin Wiesner Plan The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Mexico by expanding and making permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de Mexico
Contention 1 is the Peso: Expectations of Fed tapering are devastating the peso despite growth predictions- perception of the US is key Bain 1/22 Ben Bain is a reporter for Bloomberg Business news, “Mexico’s Peso Trades at Lowest Since September on Fed Outlook”, 1/22/2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/mexico-s-peso-trades-at-lowest-since-september-on-fed-outlook.html Mexico’s peso traded at a four-month low as mounting concern that the Federal AND Financiero Santander Mexico SAB, said in a telephone interview from Mexico City.
LONDON — Federal Reserve officials have rebuffed international calls to take the threat of fallout AND proposed ‘‘further lines of defense,’’ such as currency swap lines. Higher interest rates disrupt the bond market—Mexican intervention backfires and crushes Latin American liquidity LF 7/2/13—staff writer citing multiple emerging market economists, “Prep for Extended Volatility, warn experts”, Latin Finance, 7/2/13, http://www.latinfinance.com/Article/3226264/Prep-for-extended-volatility-warn-experts.html?ArticleId=3226264)
Latin ?nancial markets must dig in for an extended period of volatility as policymakers grapple AND fall, trading at 12.96 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday.
Empirically American fiscal policy can cause currency crises in Mexico which spread internationally— the internal link is only a few clicks away Johnson 9/5 Simon, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management. NYTimes Economix Blog http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/05/the-next-emerging-market-crisis/?hpand_r=0
Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- AND DataMapper for growth numbers and watch how it changes color as forecasts change.) Global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and the incoming crisis collapses systemically important banks Griffin 6/11, Donald Griffin, reporter for Bloomberg News , “Citigroup Facing $7 Billion Hit on Dollar Gain, Peabody Says”, Bloomberg, 6/11/13, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-11/citigroup-facing-7-billion-currency-hit-on-dollar-peabody-says#p3)
Last June, Peabody said Citigroup’s currency losses could reach $3 billion to $ AND unaware and is likely to prove to be more detrimental than currently anticipated.” Scenario 1 is the Economy:
Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation Harris and Burrows, ‘09 Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
Alternatives to growth kill hundreds of millions and cause global conflict – we can’t “turn off” the economy Barnhizer 6 David Barnhizer – Professor of Law at Cleveland State University, Summer 2006, ‘Waking from Sustainability's "Impossible Dream”,’ Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Lexis The scale of social needs, including the need for expanded productive activity, has AND social justice while avoiding and mitigating the most destructive consequences of our behavior. Economics describe the world --- Err aff --- Historical analysis proves any alternative dooms us to disastrous consequences. Morriss, 2008 (Andrew, University of St. Thomas Law Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 2008 Article 8, “The Necessity of Economics: The Preferential Option for the Poor, Markets, and Environmental Law,” http://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1140andcontext=ustlj)
Economics offers many insights into how the world around us works, much more than AND short, tradeoffs matter, and we need to pay attention to them.
Scenario 2 is Global Warming: Warming is real, anthropogenic, and we are on the brink of drastic and irreversible warming. Healthy banking sector is critical to political will and financing tech to solve. Reynolds 8/20 Owen, Economist at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “In defense of the financial industry: stocking up to end climate change” http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0820-reynolds-finance-climate.html#2FI2cHs4THkqHBGv.99 On a cross-country bus trip through the American Midwest, I watch cool AND to ensure that she can, but the projects need to be financed. Extinction Deibel 07 Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. “Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft”, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as AND States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
Warming acts as a conflict multiplier and turns all the impacts Zinni, 7- Sanford Distinguished Lecturer in Residence at Duke University, Nimitz Chair at the University of California-Berkeley, the Hofheimer Chair at the Joint Forces Staff College, the Harriman Professor of Government on the board of the Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary, Weissberg Chair in International Studies at Beloit College, former Commander in Chief of CENTCOM (Anthony, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National20Security20and20the20Threat20of20Climate20Change.pdf) Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile AND foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope. Contention 2 is the Dollar: China is racing to dethrone the dollar now- yuan expansion is eroding dollar demand, which will kill dollar hegemony Charrel 10/13 Marie Charrel is a reporter for the New York Times, “France talks about currency: How the Chinese yuan is threatening the dollar's hegemony”, 10/23/13, http://profit.ndtv.com/news/global-economy/article-france-talks-about-currency-how-the-chinese-yuan-is-threatening-the-dollars-hegemony-370237 Paris: Will the yuan dethrone the dollar one day? The Chinese currency may AND And according to HSBC, the proportion should reach 30 by 2018. Currency swaps increase dollar demand, which is key to economic leadership and global trade stability Baker 13 Associate Professor University of Notre Dame Law School. Ph.D. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, JD/MBA University of Virginia, “THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S USE OF INTERNATIONAL SWAP LINES”, http://www.arizonalawreview.org/pdf/55-3/55arizlrev603.pdf The U.S. dollar is the international currency and the main international ¶ AND and promoting its ¶ international role should be a critical public policy objective.
Trade solves war—economic interdependence Deudney et al 9 (Daniel, professor of political science at John Hopkins, and John Ikenberry, professor of international affairs at Princeton, Foreign Affairs, “The Myth of Autocratic Revival,” http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63721/daniel-deudney-and-g-john-ikenberry/the-myth-of-the-autocratic-revival) This bleak outlook is based on an exaggeration of recent developments and ignores powerful countervailing factors and forces. Indeed, contrary to what the revivalists describe, the most striking features of the contemporary international landscape are the intensification of economic globalization, thickening institutions, and shared problems of interdependence. The overall structure of the international system today is quite unlike that of the nineteenth century. Compared to older orders, the contemporary liberal centered international order provides a set of constraints and opportunities -- of pushes and pulls -- that reduce the likelihood of severe conflict while creating strong imperatives for cooperative problem solving. Those invoking the nineteenth century as a model for the twenty-first also fail to acknowledge the extent to which war as a path to conflict resolution and great-power expansion has become largely obsolete. Most important, nuclear weapons have transformed great-power war from a routine feature of international politics into an exercise in national suicide. With all of the great powers possessing nuclear weapons and ample means to rapidly expand their deterrent forces, warfare among these states has truly become an option of last resort. The prospect of such great losses has instilled in the great powers a level of caution and restraint that effectively precludes major revisionist efforts. Furthermore, the diffusion of small arms and the near universality of nationalism have severely limited the ability of great powers to conquer and occupy territory inhabited by resisting populations (as Algeria, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and now Iraq have demonstrated). Unlike during the days of empire building in the nineteenth century, states today cannot translate great asymmetries of power into effective territorial control; at most, they can hope for loose hegemonic relationships that require them to give something in return. Also unlike in the nineteenth century, today the density of trade, investment, and production networks across international borders raises even more the costs of war. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to take one of the most plausible cases of a future interstate war, would pose for the Chinese communist regime daunting economic costs, both domestic and international. Taken together, these changes in the economy of violence mean that the international system is far more primed for peace than the autocratic revivalists acknowledge. Dollar Hegemony is a key internal link into economic leadership Zoffer 12 Joshua Zoffer is a staff writer for the Harvard international review, “Future of Dollar Hegemony”, July 7 2012, http://hir.harvard.edu/crafting-the-city/future-of-dollar-hegemony?page=0,2 As the issuer of the international reserve currency, the United States has garnered two AND on the dollar’s position as the international reserve currency to fund this spending. Economic leadership is key to facilitate interdependence—the alternative is conflict James O'Connor 8 is an American sociologist and economist. He is currently an Emeritus Professor of Sociology and Economics at the University of California , “Economic Rise of the East” November 26, 2008 http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/economic-rise-east In its latest report entitled Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, the National AND antagonistic, fragmented and regional. The time to address this is now.
Hegemony is unsustainable without economic primacy. Regional balancing makes war inevitable White 8 - Professor of Strategic Studies @ Australian National University Hugh White (Visiting Fellow @ the Lowy Institute), “Conflict in Asia 'Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable'” The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Conference 2-4 June 2008 pg. http://tiny.cc/53rus We face questions about Asia’s future peace today because the order they built is under AND find itself slipping. And this would make war a lot more thinkable.
Decline triggers positional competition and war. Bargaining will become impossible Wohlforth 09 William C. Wohlforth, Professor of government @ Dartmouth College, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War,” World Politics, Volume 61, Number 1, January 2009 Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent of AND in security and/or prosperity. Pg. 33-351ac Contention 3 is Solvency:
Economic Engagement with Mexico now- DA’s are Non-UQ Stras ’13 (Marcy Stras, JD Supra Law News Reporter, “The U.S. Mission in Mexico Increases Corporate Eligibility to Participate in its Business Facilitation Program”, http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/the-us-mission-in-mexico-increases-cor-13097/, January 15, 2013)
The United States Embassy in Mexico city announced the expansion of its Business Facilitation Program AND .S. Embassy’s or Consulates’ Consular Section. According to the announcement:
Currency swaps are key -derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse -swap lines solve mexico, empirics -alternative is capital controls Mehrotra et al 12 (Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ AND on inflows, ¶ minimum holding periods and currency-specific reserve requirements).
The ESF is key – solves investor confidence Humpage 08 Owen, Senior Economic Advisor Specializing in International Economics in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, August, “A New Role for the Exchange Stabilization Fund,” Economic Commentary, pg. 2 The Treasury’s surprising decision to offer insurance to money-market mutual funds through the AND Reserve System. The latter prospect risks awakening some long-dormant controversies.
2/1/14
1AC Emory Round 1
Tournament: The Barkley Forum | Round: 1 | Opponent: Bronx Science DM | Judge: Bill Batterman Plan The United States Federal Government should expand and make permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de Mexico Contention One is Banking: Expectations of Fed tapering are devastating the peso despite growth predictions- perception of the US is key Bain 1/22 Ben Bain is a reporter for Bloomberg Business news, “Mexico’s Peso Trades at Lowest Since September on Fed Outlook”, 1/22/2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/mexico-s-peso-trades-at-lowest-since-september-on-fed-outlook.html Mexico’s peso traded at a four-month low as mounting concern that the Federal AND Financiero Santander Mexico SAB, said in a telephone interview from Mexico City.
LONDON — Federal Reserve officials have rebuffed international calls to take the threat of fallout AND proposed ‘‘further lines of defense,’’ such as currency swap lines. Higher interest rates disrupt the bond market—Mexican intervention backfires and crushes Latin American liquidity LF 7/2/13—staff writer citing multiple emerging market economists, “Prep for Extended Volatility, warn experts”, Latin Finance, 7/2/13, http://www.latinfinance.com/Article/3226264/Prep-for-extended-volatility-warn-experts.html?ArticleId=3226264)
Latin ?nancial markets must dig in for an extended period of volatility as policymakers grapple AND fall, trading at 12.96 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday.
Empirically American fiscal policy can cause currency crises in Mexico which spread internationally— the internal link is only a few clicks away Johnson 9/5 Simon, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management. NYTimes Economix Blog http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/05/the-next-emerging-market-crisis/?hpand_r=0
Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- AND DataMapper for growth numbers and watch how it changes color as forecasts change.) Global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and the incoming crisis collapses systemically important banks Griffin 6/11, Donald Griffin, reporter for Bloomberg News , “Citigroup Facing $7 Billion Hit on Dollar Gain, Peabody Says”, Bloomberg, 6/11/13, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-11/citigroup-facing-7-billion-currency-hit-on-dollar-peabody-says#p3)
Last June, Peabody said Citigroup’s currency losses could reach $3 billion to $ AND unaware and is likely to prove to be more detrimental than currently anticipated.”
Scenario 1 is Global Warming: Warming is real, anthropogenic, and we are on the brink of drastic and irreversible warming. Healthy banking sector is critical to political will and financing tech to solve. Reynolds 8/20 Owen, Economist at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “In defense of the financial industry: stocking up to end climate change” http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0820-reynolds-finance-climate.html#2FI2cHs4THkqHBGv.99 On a cross-country bus trip through the American Midwest, I watch cool AND to ensure that she can, but the projects need to be financed. Extinction Deibel 07 Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. “Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft”, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as AND States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
Warming acts as a conflict multiplier and turns all the impacts Zinni, 7- Sanford Distinguished Lecturer in Residence at Duke University, Nimitz Chair at the University of California-Berkeley, the Hofheimer Chair at the Joint Forces Staff College, the Harriman Professor of Government on the board of the Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary, Weissberg Chair in International Studies at Beloit College, former Commander in Chief of CENTCOM (Anthony, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National20Security20and20the20Threat20of20Climate20Change.pdf) Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile AND foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope. Scenario 2 is the Economy:
Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation Harris and Burrows, ‘09 Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
Alternatives to growth kill hundreds of millions and cause global conflict – we can’t “turn off” the economy Barnhizer 6 David Barnhizer – Professor of Law at Cleveland State University, Summer 2006, ‘Waking from Sustainability's "Impossible Dream”,’ Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Lexis The scale of social needs, including the need for expanded productive activity, has AND social justice while avoiding and mitigating the most destructive consequences of our behavior. Scenario 3 is Financial Inclusion: Financial inclusion efforts like microfinance are being spearheaded by big banks now- absent banks these efforts won’t succeed Fioretti 12/9 Julia Foretti is a reporter for Reuters, “ Big banks see rich opportunities in world's poorest”, 12/9/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/09/us-financial-inclusion-idUSBRE9B80IS20131209 (Reuters) - When the Afghan government used mobile phones instead of cash to AND Imoukhuede said.¶ "Once you have scale ... I think it's easy."
Financial Inclusion is key to solving social justice issues such as racism Khan ’08 Omar Khan (Omar is Runnymede Trust’s head of policy research and, among other projects, leads the financial inclusion programme. Omar sits on the Department for Work and Pensions' Ethnic Minority Advisory Group. He is also a 2012 Clore Social Leadership Fellow.Omar's other advisory positions include chair of Olmec (a social enterprise), the 2011 Census, the Household Longitudinal Survey, the Electoral Reform Society, the Payments Council, and as the UK representative on the European Commission’s Socio-economic network of experts., “Financial Inclusion and Ethnicity”, 06/2008, http://www.runnymedetrust.org/uploads/publications/pdfs/FinancialInclusion-2008.pdf) ¶ This last point links the discussion on social justice to the ostensible topic of AND direct or¶ indirect discrimination, or indeed from different choices and experiences. Racism is the root cause of genocidal violence and war Martin, 1990 (Brian, associate professor in Science, Technology, and Society at the University of Wollongong, Uprooting War, http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/90uw/uw13.html)
Racism has been a major factor in many wars, and also has motivated a AND alternative hierarchies, but rather to reorganise social life in an egalitarian way. Micro Finance has the tools to empower women within society, especially through a micro finance institute Cheston and Kuhn(, Susan Cheston Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women’s Opportunity Fund Lisa Kuhn, Program Analyst, Opportunity International) 2002 (“Empowering women through micro finance”, research paper sponsored by UNIFEM, http://storage.globalcitizen.net/data/topic/knowledge/uploads/201101311419705.pdf) Microfinance has the potential to have a powerful impact on women’s ¶ empowerment. Although AND ensure that women are more deeply and consistently empowered through their ¶ programs.
Empowerment is a prerequisite to solve other global issues Cheston and Kuhn 2Susy Cheston, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity , International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women’s Opportunity Fund. Lisa Kuhn, Program Analyst, Opportunity International Research sponsored by the Women’s Opportunity Fund and its funding partners: Elizabeth Foster and Michael Walsh, Gems of Hope USA, and the Morrow Charitable Trust. Publication sponsored by UNIFEM. “Empowering Women through Microfinance” http://storage.globalcitizen.net/data/topic/knowledge/uploads/201101311419705.pdf 7/8/2DLi The influence of society over the range and exercise of choice also means that if AND , it has the potential to empower many more, even more greatly.
Contention Two is Solvency:
Economic Engagement with Mexico now- DA’s are Non-UQ Stras ’13 (Marcy Stras, JD Supra Law News Reporter, “The U.S. Mission in Mexico Increases Corporate Eligibility to Participate in its Business Facilitation Program”, http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/the-us-mission-in-mexico-increases-cor-13097/, January 15, 2013)
The United States Embassy in Mexico city announced the expansion of its Business Facilitation Program AND .S. Embassy’s or Consulates’ Consular Section. According to the announcement:
We Solve -derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse -swap lines solve mexico, empirics -alternative is capital controls Mehrotra et al 12 (Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ AND on inflows, ¶ minimum holding periods and currency-specific reserve requirements).
Empirical Solvency —confidence, crisis management Olson et al 09 (Eric, senior advisor to the Security Initiative of the Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute and has held senior positions at the Organization of American States, Amnesty International, and the Washington Office on Latin America, "The United States And Mexico: Towards a Strategic Partnership" A report of four working groups on U.S.-Mexico Relations, January 2009, www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The20U.S.20and20Mexico.20Towards20a20Strategic20Partnership.pdf NP) The interdependence of the two economies ¶ makes Mexico one of the most vulnerable ¶ AND ¶ authorities underscores the importance of timely and ¶ coordinated actions in crisis management
Contention Three is Framing:
Economics describe the world --- Err aff --- Historical analysis proves any alternative dooms us to disastrous consequences. Morriss, 2008 (Andrew, University of St. Thomas Law Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 2008 Article 8, “The Necessity of Economics: The Preferential Option for the Poor, Markets, and Environmental Law,” http://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1140andcontext=ustlj)
Economics offers many insights into how the world around us works, much more than AND short, tradeoffs matter, and we need to pay attention to them.
We must REFRAME the focus of our academic pursuits to resolve warming. The value of other academic pursuits is MINISCULE in comparison. Bowers 08 – Professor of Environmental Studies @ University of OregonC. A. Bowers (Ph. D. from the University of California in educational studies with an emphasis on education and social thought),University Reform in an Era of Global Warming
The widely held assumption that social progress and academic freedom are inextricably linked has led AND multiple political and ecological crises of our era. Pg. 49-51
2/1/14
1AC Emory Round 1
Tournament: The Barkley Forum | Round: 1 | Opponent: Bronx Science DM | Judge: Bill Batterman Plan The United States Federal Government should expand and make permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de Mexico Contention One is Banking: Expectations of Fed tapering are devastating the peso despite growth predictions- perception of the US is key Bain 1/22 Ben Bain is a reporter for Bloomberg Business news, “Mexico’s Peso Trades at Lowest Since September on Fed Outlook”, 1/22/2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-22/mexico-s-peso-trades-at-lowest-since-september-on-fed-outlook.html Mexico’s peso traded at a four-month low as mounting concern that the Federal AND Financiero Santander Mexico SAB, said in a telephone interview from Mexico City.
LONDON — Federal Reserve officials have rebuffed international calls to take the threat of fallout AND proposed ‘‘further lines of defense,’’ such as currency swap lines. Higher interest rates disrupt the bond market—Mexican intervention backfires and crushes Latin American liquidity LF 7/2/13—staff writer citing multiple emerging market economists, “Prep for Extended Volatility, warn experts”, Latin Finance, 7/2/13, http://www.latinfinance.com/Article/3226264/Prep-for-extended-volatility-warn-experts.html?ArticleId=3226264)
Latin ?nancial markets must dig in for an extended period of volatility as policymakers grapple AND fall, trading at 12.96 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday.
Empirically American fiscal policy can cause currency crises in Mexico which spread internationally— the internal link is only a few clicks away Johnson 9/5 Simon, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship at the M.I.T. Sloan School of Management. NYTimes Economix Blog http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/05/the-next-emerging-market-crisis/?hpand_r=0
Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- AND DataMapper for growth numbers and watch how it changes color as forecasts change.) Global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and the incoming crisis collapses systemically important banks Griffin 6/11, Donald Griffin, reporter for Bloomberg News , “Citigroup Facing $7 Billion Hit on Dollar Gain, Peabody Says”, Bloomberg, 6/11/13, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-11/citigroup-facing-7-billion-currency-hit-on-dollar-peabody-says#p3)
Last June, Peabody said Citigroup’s currency losses could reach $3 billion to $ AND unaware and is likely to prove to be more detrimental than currently anticipated.”
Scenario 1 is Global Warming: Warming is real, anthropogenic, and we are on the brink of drastic and irreversible warming. Healthy banking sector is critical to political will and financing tech to solve. Reynolds 8/20 Owen, Economist at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “In defense of the financial industry: stocking up to end climate change” http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0820-reynolds-finance-climate.html#2FI2cHs4THkqHBGv.99 On a cross-country bus trip through the American Midwest, I watch cool AND to ensure that she can, but the projects need to be financed. Extinction Deibel 07 Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. “Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft”, Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as AND States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
Warming acts as a conflict multiplier and turns all the impacts Zinni, 7- Sanford Distinguished Lecturer in Residence at Duke University, Nimitz Chair at the University of California-Berkeley, the Hofheimer Chair at the Joint Forces Staff College, the Harriman Professor of Government on the board of the Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary, Weissberg Chair in International Studies at Beloit College, former Commander in Chief of CENTCOM (Anthony, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National20Security20and20the20Threat20of20Climate20Change.pdf) Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile AND foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope. Scenario 2 is the Economy:
Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation Harris and Burrows, ‘09 Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
Alternatives to growth kill hundreds of millions and cause global conflict – we can’t “turn off” the economy Barnhizer 6 David Barnhizer – Professor of Law at Cleveland State University, Summer 2006, ‘Waking from Sustainability's "Impossible Dream”,’ Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Lexis The scale of social needs, including the need for expanded productive activity, has AND social justice while avoiding and mitigating the most destructive consequences of our behavior. Scenario 3 is Financial Inclusion: Financial inclusion efforts like microfinance are being spearheaded by big banks now- absent banks these efforts won’t succeed Fioretti 12/9 Julia Foretti is a reporter for Reuters, “ Big banks see rich opportunities in world's poorest”, 12/9/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/09/us-financial-inclusion-idUSBRE9B80IS20131209 (Reuters) - When the Afghan government used mobile phones instead of cash to AND Imoukhuede said.¶ "Once you have scale ... I think it's easy."
Financial Inclusion is key to solving social justice issues such as racism Khan ’08 Omar Khan (Omar is Runnymede Trust’s head of policy research and, among other projects, leads the financial inclusion programme. Omar sits on the Department for Work and Pensions' Ethnic Minority Advisory Group. He is also a 2012 Clore Social Leadership Fellow.Omar's other advisory positions include chair of Olmec (a social enterprise), the 2011 Census, the Household Longitudinal Survey, the Electoral Reform Society, the Payments Council, and as the UK representative on the European Commission’s Socio-economic network of experts., “Financial Inclusion and Ethnicity”, 06/2008, http://www.runnymedetrust.org/uploads/publications/pdfs/FinancialInclusion-2008.pdf) ¶ This last point links the discussion on social justice to the ostensible topic of AND direct or¶ indirect discrimination, or indeed from different choices and experiences. Racism is the root cause of genocidal violence and war Martin, 1990 (Brian, associate professor in Science, Technology, and Society at the University of Wollongong, Uprooting War, http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/90uw/uw13.html)
Racism has been a major factor in many wars, and also has motivated a AND alternative hierarchies, but rather to reorganise social life in an egalitarian way. Micro Finance has the tools to empower women within society, especially through a micro finance institute Cheston and Kuhn(, Susan Cheston Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women’s Opportunity Fund Lisa Kuhn, Program Analyst, Opportunity International) 2002 (“Empowering women through micro finance”, research paper sponsored by UNIFEM, http://storage.globalcitizen.net/data/topic/knowledge/uploads/201101311419705.pdf) Microfinance has the potential to have a powerful impact on women’s ¶ empowerment. Although AND ensure that women are more deeply and consistently empowered through their ¶ programs.
Empowerment is a prerequisite to solve other global issues Cheston and Kuhn 2Susy Cheston, Senior Vice President, Policy and Research, Opportunity , International, and Executive Director Emeritus of the Women’s Opportunity Fund. Lisa Kuhn, Program Analyst, Opportunity International Research sponsored by the Women’s Opportunity Fund and its funding partners: Elizabeth Foster and Michael Walsh, Gems of Hope USA, and the Morrow Charitable Trust. Publication sponsored by UNIFEM. “Empowering Women through Microfinance” http://storage.globalcitizen.net/data/topic/knowledge/uploads/201101311419705.pdf 7/8/2DLi The influence of society over the range and exercise of choice also means that if AND , it has the potential to empower many more, even more greatly.
Contention Two is Solvency:
Economic Engagement with Mexico now- DA’s are Non-UQ Stras ’13 (Marcy Stras, JD Supra Law News Reporter, “The U.S. Mission in Mexico Increases Corporate Eligibility to Participate in its Business Facilitation Program”, http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/the-us-mission-in-mexico-increases-cor-13097/, January 15, 2013)
The United States Embassy in Mexico city announced the expansion of its Business Facilitation Program AND .S. Embassy’s or Consulates’ Consular Section. According to the announcement:
We Solve -derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse -swap lines solve mexico, empirics -alternative is capital controls Mehrotra et al 12 (Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ AND on inflows, ¶ minimum holding periods and currency-specific reserve requirements).
Empirical Solvency —confidence, crisis management Olson et al 09 (Eric, senior advisor to the Security Initiative of the Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute and has held senior positions at the Organization of American States, Amnesty International, and the Washington Office on Latin America, "The United States And Mexico: Towards a Strategic Partnership" A report of four working groups on U.S.-Mexico Relations, January 2009, www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The20U.S.20and20Mexico.20Towards20a20Strategic20Partnership.pdf NP) The interdependence of the two economies ¶ makes Mexico one of the most vulnerable ¶ AND ¶ authorities underscores the importance of timely and ¶ coordinated actions in crisis management
Contention Three is Framing:
Economics describe the world --- Err aff --- Historical analysis proves any alternative dooms us to disastrous consequences. Morriss, 2008 (Andrew, University of St. Thomas Law Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 2008 Article 8, “The Necessity of Economics: The Preferential Option for the Poor, Markets, and Environmental Law,” http://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1140andcontext=ustlj)
Economics offers many insights into how the world around us works, much more than AND short, tradeoffs matter, and we need to pay attention to them.
We must REFRAME the focus of our academic pursuits to resolve warming. The value of other academic pursuits is MINISCULE in comparison. Bowers 08 – Professor of Environmental Studies @ University of OregonC. A. Bowers (Ph. D. from the University of California in educational studies with an emphasis on education and social thought),University Reform in an Era of Global Warming
The widely held assumption that social progress and academic freedom are inextricably linked has led AND multiple political and ecological crises of our era. Pg. 49-51
2/1/14
1AC Milton FM UGA
Tournament: UGA Bulldog Debates | Round: 1 | Opponent: Westminster WZ | Judge: Ben Schultz Plan The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Mexico by expanding and making permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco do Mexico
Advantage 1 is the Peso:
Volatility is inevitable, expectations of Fed tapering are devastating the Peso
Mexico’s peso volatility climbed for a 12th straight day in the longest stretch of increases AND Mexico. "It’s not that its reflecting the fundamentals of the country."
Higher interest rates disrupt the bond market—Mexican intervention backfires and crushes Latin American liquidity
Latin ?nancial markets must dig in for an extended period of volatility as policymakers grapple AND fall, trading at 12.96 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday.
Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- AND DataMapper for growth numbers and watch how it changes color as forecasts change.) Systemically important banks are on the brink now- market collapse would render devastating losses Slater 2/4, Steve Slater is a European banking correspondent for Reuters.com, "European banks have 243 trillion of exposure to emerging markets", 2/4/14, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/us-europe-banks-emergingmarkets-idUSBREA130H320140204 (Reuters) - European banks have loaned in excess of 243 trillion to AND a broader, indirect impact on revenues in investment banking and wealth management. Three internal links:
Currency swaps independently solve Mexican confidence -derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse -swap lines solve mexico, empirics -alternative is capital controls Mehrotra et al 12 (Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf-http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
LONDON — Federal Reserve officials have rebuffed international calls to take the threat of fallout AND proposed ’’further lines of defense,’’ such as currency swap lines. 3. Permanent swap agreements are key to global financial resiliency Reuters 1/4 Reuters is a news agency that reports on economic news in the US and around the world, "BoE’s Haldane says currency swap deals could be expanded", 1/4/2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/04/boe-haldane-idUSL2N0KE08R20140104 Jan 4 (Reuters) - Policymakers around the world should consider setting up more AND put "grit in the wheels" of financial flows to maintain stability.
Scenario 1 is the Economy: The banking sector critical to the economy Armenta 07, Manuela W. Armenta , "The Financial Sector and economic development: Banking on The role of human capital", http://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/2007/9.pdf) To understand why financial sector development, under certain condi- tions, may be AND insufficient, condition for the creation of stable financial markets and sustainable growth. Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation Harris and Burrows, ’09 ~Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf-http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf~~ Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
Their defense doesn’t have the same statistical support
Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises", Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. Alternatives to growth cause mass poverty and make conflict inevitable Barnhizer 6 ~David Barnhizer – Professor of Law at Cleveland State University, Summer 2006, ’Waking from Sustainability’s "Impossible Dream",’ Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Lexis~ The scale of social needs, including the need for expanded productive activity, has AND social justice while avoiding and mitigating the most destructive consequences of our behavior. Economics describe the world — Historical analysis proves any alternative dooms us to disastrous consequences. Morriss, 2008 (Andrew, University of St. Thomas Law Journal, Volume 5, Issue 1 2008 Article 8, "The Necessity of Economics: The Preferential Option for the Poor, Markets, and Environmental Law," http://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=114026context=ustlj-http://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=114026context=ustlj)
Economics offers many insights into how the world around us works, much more than AND short, tradeoffs matter, and we need to pay attention to them.
Scenario 2 is Global Warming: It’s real and anthropogenic. Banks solve- investment and political influence Reynolds 8/20 Owen, Economist at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, "In defense of the financial industry: stocking up to end climate change" http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0820-reynolds-finance-climate.html~~232FI2cHs4THkqHBGv.99 On a cross-country bus trip through the American Midwest, I watch cool AND to ensure that she can, but the projects need to be financed.
We are rapidly approaching the tipping point- multiple warrants for Extinction Jamail 12/17 ~Dahr, Independent writer for Salon News and has written extensively about climate change as well as the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. He is a recipient of numerous awards, including the Martha Gellhorn Award for Journalism and the James Aronson Award for Social Justice Journalism. He is the author of two books: Beyond the Green Zone: Dispatches from an Unembedded Journalist in Occupied Iraq and The Will to Resist: Soldiers Who Refuse to Fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. He currently works for al-Jazeera English in Doha, Qatar, 2013, ""The Great Dying" Redux? Shocking Parallels Between Ancient Mass Extinction and Climate Change," http://www.salon.com/2013/12/17/the_great_dying_redux_shocking_parallels_between_ancient_mass_extinction_and_climate_change_partner/~~ I haven’t returned to Mount Rainier to see just how much further that glacier has AND possible for the seven to nine billion of us — so we’ll die."
Climate Change turns all impacts
|causes terror|wrecks global econ|exacerbates tensions ? conflict|wealth disparities - poverty/disease| |food prices increase ? food wars|water scarcity ? water wars|kills biodiversity ? extinction| Sawin 12 ~Janet Sawin, Senior Director of the Energy and Climate Change Program at the WorldWatch Institute, Aug 2012, "Climate Change Poses Greater Security Threat than Terrorism~ As early as 1988, scientists cautioned that human tinkering with the Earth’s climate amounted AND migration across borders has frequently led to violent clashes over land and resources.
Advantage 2 is the Dollar: China is racing to dethrone the dollar now- yuan expansion trades-off with dollar use Charrel 10/23 Marie Charrel is a reporter for the New York Times, "France talks about currency: How the Chinese yuan is threatening the dollar’s hegemony", 10/23/13, http://profit.ndtv.com/news/global-economy/article-france-talks-about-currency-how-the-chinese-yuan-is-threatening-the-dollars-hegemony-370237 Paris: Will the yuan dethrone the dollar one day? The Chinese currency may AND And according to HSBC, the proportion should reach 30 by 2018. Currency swaps increase dollar use, which is key to economic leadership and global trade stability Baker 13 Associate Professor University of Notre Dame Law School. Ph.D. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, JD/MBA University of Virginia, "THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S USE OF INTERNATIONAL SWAP LINES", http://www.arizonalawreview.org/pdf/55-3/55arizlrev603.pdf The U.S. dollar is the international currency and the main international ¶ AND and promoting its ¶ international role should be a critical public policy objective.
Economic leadership is key to facilitate interdependence and incorporate rising institutions like BRICS—the alternative is conflict James O’Connor 8 is an American sociologist and economist. He is currently an Emeritus Professor of Sociology and Economics at the University of California , "Economic Rise of the East" November 26, 2008 http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/economic-rise-east In its latest report entitled Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World, the National AND antagonistic, fragmented and regional. The time to address this is now.
BRICS rise independently provides solutions to every global problem Mahapatra 13 (Dr. Debidatta Aurobinda Mahapatra, associate at the University of Mumbai Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, June 11, "BRICS see greater role in Latin America," Russia Beyond the Headlines http://rbth.asia/news/2013/06/11/brics_see_greater_role_in_latin_america_47283.html, Keerthi, Accessed 8/30/13) Last week witnessed some crucial developments from BRICS perspective. The Cuban foreign minister visited AND In this venture, the proposed BRICS bank can be an effective tool. Loss of economic primacy ensures US lashout and Asian instability White 8 - Professor of Strategic Studies @ Australian National University ~Hugh White (Visiting Fellow @ the Lowy Institute), "Conflict in Asia ’Why War in Asia Remains Thinkable’" The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Conference 2-4 June 2008 pg. http://tiny.cc/53rus~~ We face questions about Asia’s future peace today because the order they built is under AND find itself slipping. And this would make war a lot more thinkable.
This is the most likely scenario for a nuclear world war Evans 11 – ADC Fellow @ Australian Defence College ~Michael Evans (Former Head of the Australian Army’s Land Warfare Studies Centre @ Royal Military College), "Power and Paradox: Asian Geopolitics and Sino-American Relations in the 21st Century," Orbis, Volume 55, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 85–113 For the first time since the beginning of the sixteenth century, the single largest AND engaged in Asia in a climate of change and uncertainty about the future. Asia’s rise to economic supremacy is occurring against a general geopolitical environment that lacks formal AND of mass destruction (WMDs) to missile defense and information technologies.4 Asia is also increasingly a laboratory for the cross-cutting themes of what James AND . To quote one 2008 study on U.S. Asian policy: Asia is not a theatre at peace. . . suspicions rooted in rivalry and AND on Earth for a major conventional confrontation and even a nuclear conflict.6
Prefer specificity—Empirical validity is a sufficient justification for action
Owen 2 (David, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium, Vol 31, No 3) Commenting on the ’philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ’~a~ AND the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.
3/2/14
1AC Ohio Valley Round 1
Tournament: Ohio Valley | Round: 1 | Opponent: Northview | Judge: Jerry Spiegel
1AC
Plan
The United States Federal Government should expand and make semi-permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de Mexico
Contention 1 is Banking:
Speculation over the Fed’s decision to taper creates endless volatility for the peso as markets expect investment outflows from Mexico to the US—a major crisis is inevitable
Latin American currencies, stocks and bonds soared on Wednesday after the U.S AND which in turn means less inflation and less need for higher interest rates."
The Fed is unwilling to support emerging markets – the plan is key
LONDON — Federal Reserve officials have rebuffed international calls to take the threat of fallout AND proposed ’’further lines of defense,’’ such as currency swap lines.
Higher interest rates disrupt the bond market—Mexican intervention backfires and crushes Latin American liquidity
Latin ?nancial markets must dig in for an extended period of volatility as policymakers grapple AND fall, trading at 12.96 pesos to the dollar on Tuesday.
Empirically American fiscal policy can cause currency crises in Mexico which spread internationally— the internal link is only a few clicks away
Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- AND DataMapper for growth numbers and watch how it changes color as forecasts change.)
Global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and the incoming crisis collapses systemically important banks
Last June, Peabody said Citigroup’s currency losses could reach 243 billion to 24 AND unaware and is likely to prove to be more detrimental than currently anticipated."
Scenario 1 is the Economy:
Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation Harris and Burrows, ’09 ~Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf-http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf~~ Increased Potential for Global Conflict Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and AND within and between states in a more dog-eat-dog world.
Alternatives to growth kill hundreds of millions and cause global conflict – we can’t "turn off" the economy
Barnhizer 6 ~David Barnhizer – Professor of Law at Cleveland State University, Summer 2006, ’Waking from Sustainability’s "Impossible Dream",’ Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Lexis~ The scale of social needs, including the need for expanded productive activity, has AND social justice while avoiding and mitigating the most destructive consequences of our behavior.
Economics describe the world —- Err aff —- Historical analysis proves any alternative dooms us to disastrous consequences.
Economics offers many insights into how the world around us works, much more than AND short, tradeoffs matter, and we need to pay attention to them.
Scenario 2 is Global Warming:
Warming is real, anthropogenic, and we are on the brink of drastic and irreversible warming. Healthy banking sector is critical to political will and financing tech to solve.
Reynolds 8/20 Owen, Economist at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, "In defense of the financial industry: stocking up to end climate change" http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0820-reynolds-finance-climate.html~~232FI2cHs4THkqHBGv.99 On a cross-country bus trip through the American Midwest, I watch cool AND to ensure that she can, but the projects need to be financed.
Extinction
Deibel 07 ~Terry L. Professor of IR @ National War College, 2007. "Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft", Conclusion: American Foreign Affairs Strategy Today~
Finally, there is one major existential threat to American security (as well as AND States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.
Warming acts as a conflict multiplier and turns all the impacts
Zinni, 7- Sanford Distinguished Lecturer in Residence at Duke University, Nimitz Chair at the University of California-Berkeley, the Hofheimer Chair at the Joint Forces Staff College, the Harriman Professor of Government on the board of the Reves Center for International Studies at the College of William and Mary, Weissberg Chair in International Studies at Beloit College, former Commander in Chief of CENTCOM (Anthony, "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change," http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National20Security20and20the20Threat20of20Climate20Change.pdf) Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile AND foster political instability where societal demands exceed the capacity of governments to cope.
Contention 2 is Mexico:
Scenario 1 is Agriculture:
Exchange rate volatility hurts Mexican Ag
Bahmani-Oskooee 9 (Mohsen, Wilmeth Professor and UWM Distinguished Professor Chair, Department of Economics @ University of Wisconsin, Scott W. Hegerty, Economics professor @ Northeastern Illinois University, "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, 2009, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431-http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/27751431.pdf) The overall results regarding the long-term effects of exchange rate volatility are highly AND Textile and leather machinery and Textile yarn and thread (in Table 4).
Mexican Ag is key to low food prices and addressing global hunger issues
Building on its success a half-century ago pioneering new varieties of wheat and AND Saharan Africa where hundreds of millions of people face severe hunger and poverty.
Extinction
Brown09 ~Lester, Founder of the Worldwatch Institute and the Earth Policy Institute, April 22, "Can Food Shortages Bring Down Civilization?" http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=civilization-food-shortages~~ The biggest threat to global stability is the potential for food crises in poor countries AND states disintegrate, their fall will threaten the stability of global civilization itself.
Bergin 9 (Paul R., Professor of Economics @ UC Davis, Robert C. Feenstra, C. Bryan Cameron Distinguished Chair in International Economics @ UC Davis, Gordon H. Hanson, Professor of Economics; Pacific Economic Cooperation Chair in International Economic Relations @ UC San Diego, "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico’s Maquiladora Industry," American Economic Review 2009, 99:4, 1664-1671, http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/25592525.pdf?acceptTC=true)
As a measure of volatility, we shall focus on the relative variance of employment AND this problem, the analysis is limited to the 1996-2005 period.
Mexican Manufacturing is key to US aerospace production – suppliers
One industry flocking to Mexico for its lower cost structure and ample workforce is aerospace AND the top states in Mexico for the industry along with Chihuahua and Sonora.
Prevents China-Taiwan conflict and China Rise
Mosher 6 (Stephen Mosher, President of the Population Research Institute, CQ Congressional Testimony, "Chinese Influence on U.S. Foreign Policy," February 14, 2006, pg lexis)
The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare. AND American military assets in the Asian-Pacific will have to be neutralized.
Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China AND arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."
China rise causes regional instability that draws every major power
Walton 7 – C. Dale Walton, Lecturer in International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, 2007, Geopolitics and the Great Powers in the 21st Century, p. 49
Obviously, it is of vital importance to the United States that the PRC does AND a healthy multipolar system that is not marked by close great power alliances.
Scenario 3 is Iran:
Mexican instability gives Iran leverage in nuclear talks
Pease 11 (Shadd A Pease, Master of Arts in International Security from University of Denver Josef Korbel School of International Studies, concentration on the areas of military analysis and intelligence, June 2011, "Instability in the South: The Implications of Mexican State Failure on U.S. National Security")
The ability of foreign states to conduct operations inside the country of Mexico may be AND to gain greater influence in the Latin American region in the subsequent sections.
No status quo financing will be available before crisis
Moreno 10 (Ramon, Head of Economics for Latin America and the Caribbean, AND )
At the same time, the costs of these alternative ¶ financing facilities could be AND , which may ¶ partly depend on a country’s holding of foreign reserves.
Economic Engagement with Mexico now- DA’s are Non-UQ
The United States Embassy in Mexico city announced the expansion of its Business Facilitation Program AND .S. Embassy’s or Consulates’ Consular Section. According to the announcement:
We Solve
-derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse -swap lines solve mexico, empirics -alternative is capital controls Mehrotra et al 12 (Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf-http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ AND on inflows, ¶ minimum holding periods and currency-specific reserve requirements).
Empirical Solvency —confidence, crisis management
Olson et al 09 (Eric, senior advisor to the Security Initiative of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and has held senior positions at the Organization of American States, Amnesty International, and the Washington Office on Latin America, "The United States And Mexico: Towards a Strategic Partnership" A report of four working groups on U.S.-Mexico Relations, January 2009, www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The20U.S.20and20Mexico.20Towards20a20Strategic20Partnership.pdf-http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The U.S. and Mexico. Towards a Strategic Partnership.pdf NP) The interdependence of the two economies ¶ makes Mexico one of the most vulnerable ¶ AND ¶ authorities underscores the importance of timely and ¶ coordinated actions in crisis management