Tournament: TOC | Round: 4 | Opponent: Westminster HH | Judge: Sam Shore
Small farms are on the ropes now – they can’t compete with mechanized US ag
Flannery 12 (Nathaniel Parish Flannery, Forbes Contributor, 12/17/12, “Reporter's Notebook: A Sober Assessment of NAFTA” http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2012/12/17/reporters-notebook-a-sober-assessment-of-nafta/)

At the protest, ... in other sectors.

NADBank investment solves agriculture – similar programs prove
Wise 9 (Timothy A. Wise, Director of the Research and Policy Program at the Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, Nov. 2009, “The Future of North American Trade Policy: Lessons from NAFTA” http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/PardeeNAFTACh3WiseAgricNov09.pdf)

Borrow from European ... address the problem.

Enables massive productivity gains for Mexican agriculture
Salas 12 (Antonio Diaz Gonzalez Salas, graduate student @ Trinity College, 4/1/12, “Mexico's Quest in the North American Markets” online @ http://digitalrepository.trincoll.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1191andcontext=theses)

In addition of ... the agriculture sector. 

Lack of assistance kills off small farms – causes industrialized ag to take over
Salinas 7 (CLAUDIA MELÉNDEZ SALINAS, reporters at the Herald Salinas Bureau, 12/2/07, “Mexican farmers struggle to survive”, http://www.montereyherald.com/ci_7616170)

His story is not ... at a disadvantage."

That devastates crop diversity and causes proliferation of GMO crops
Godoy 12 (Emilio Godoy, Mexico-based correspondent who covers the environment, human rights and sustainable development, Inter Press Service News Agency, 10/24/12  “Mexico Could Say Goodbye to Imported Maize” http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/10/mexico-could-say-goodbye-to-imported-maize/)

Investing in irrigation ... other varieties, they maintain.

Mexico is key – small farms preserve agro-diversity that is key to global food security
Carlsen 13 (Laura, director of the Latin America Rights and Security at the AMERICAS PROGRAM at the Center for International Policy, 2/18, “Mexican small farmers stand against Monsanto’s GM corn conquest”, http://www.voxxi.com/mexican-against-monsantos-gm-corn/#ixzz2ZvgYY6Z7)

Monsanto has a ... and affordable food.

Loss of corn diversity causes extinction
Boyce 13 (James K. Boyce is a Professor at University of Massachusetts, Amherst. He is the Director of the Program on Development, Peacebuilding, and the Environment at PERI - The Political Economy Research Institute, interview with Paul Jay, 4/13/13, “Subsidized Corn Destroying Global Bio-Diversity” http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=31andItemid=74andjumival=9761)

JAY: So one of ... in the future.

Plan’s small farmer support in Mexico deters excessive flow of illegal immigrants to the U.S.
Tim Johnson 11, McClatchy DC, "Free trade: As U.S. corn flows south, Mexicans stop farming", February 1, www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/02/01/107871/free-trade-us-corn-flows-south.html
Look around the ... imports," Fox said.

That causes several deadly disease outbreaks
James H. Walsh 6, former federal prosecutor and associate general counsel, U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service, “Illegal Aliens' Impact on Public Health and Environment” May 9 2006 http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/5/8/230000.shtml
The men, women, and ... the United States.

Extinction
Quammen 12 David, award-winning science writer, long-time columnist for Outside magazine for fifteen years, with work in National Geographic, Harper's, Rolling Stone, the New York Times Book Review and other periodicals, 9/29, “Could the next big animal-to-human disease wipe us out?,” The Guardian, pg. 29, Lexis

Infectious disease is ... viruses in particular.

New deadly disease outbreaks are inevitable
CDC Foundation 12 --- “How CDC Saves Lives By Controlling REAL Global Disease Outbreaks,” http://www.cdcfoundation.org/content/how-cdc-saves-lives-controlling-real-global-disease-outbreaks
Serious, deadly contagious ... deadly than ever. 

Disease causes extinction---no burnout
Torrey and Yolken 5 E. Fuller and Robert H, Directors Stanley Medical Research Institute, 2005, Beasts of the Earth: Animals, Humans and Disease, pp. 5-6
The outcome of ... the human race.

Tournament: NDCA | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Westminster FM | Judge: Sam Shore, Kenny McCaffrey, Christina Tallungan

The NADBank is largely unable to finance environmental infrastructure – high financing costs and smaller appropriations are strangling demand

Espinosa 12 ( Dr. Salvador Espinosa P, Professor 26 Researcher in the Division of Public Administration at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics CIDE-Mexico, Assistant Professor in the School of Public Affairs at San Diego State University, independent consultant, 2012, "The US-Mexican Border Environment: Progress and Challenges for Sustainability" pg.. 399-402)

Large-scale environmental infrastructure projects, such as those listed in Table 1,
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if its implementation is not accompanied by policy measures to foster regional development.

NADBank gets modeled – key to an effective Hong Kong-Chinese development bank

Curry et al 2 (Lynne Curry, Alicia Eastman and Alan Koon, Civic Exchange, October 2002, "Financing Cross-border Solutions For Water and Wastewater Infrastructure In the Pearl River Delta" http://www.civic-exchange.org/eng/upload/files/200210_WastewaterPearlRiver.pdf-http://www.civic-exchange.org/eng/upload/files/200210_WastewaterPearlRiver.pdf)
Note – Guangdong is a Chinese city

The creation of a bi-national bank with an environmental focus would help encourage
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to provide public input on financial practices and policy priorities could be established.

That solves environmental issues in the Pearl River Delta and spills over to environmental protection throughout China – US-Mexico agreements are a key model

Ellis and Turner 8 (Linden J. Ellis, project assistant at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholar’s China Environment Forum, and Jennifer L. Turner, director of the China Environment Forum at the Woodrow Wilson Center, 4/29/08, "Environmental Cooperation Between Hong Kong and Guangdong" http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/environmental-cooperation-between-hong-kong-and-guangdong)

Guangdong’s industrialization and urbanization—driven largely by Hong Kong capital—has had a
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and control to economic incentives, with the whole structure becoming more formal.

The Pearl River is key to freshwater ecosystem diversity – prevents extinction

Leung Sze-Lun et al. 7 (Alan Leung Sze-lun, conservation manager of WWF Hong Kong, Chung Hoi-yan, Tong Xiaoli, July 2007, "Epson Pearl River Delta Scoping Study" http://awsassets.wwfhk.panda.org/downloads/prd_report_2007.pdf)

Introduction Freshwater ecosystems are considered amongst the world’s most endangered ecosystems. The freshwater crisis
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by exotic species (Dudgeon, 1999; Dudgeon et al., 2006).

Now is key – environmental issues are reaching a critical point and domestic unrest is growing

Lallanilla 13 (Marc, LiveScience Assistance Editor, 3/18/13, "Environmental Issues In China: The Country’s Top 6 Concerns" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/18/environmental-issues-china_n_2900435.html)

China’s environmental crises seem to arise on a scale as sweeping and epic as the
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government and industry leaders. Whether they will succeed remains to be seen.

Chinese environmental destruction causes CCP collapse and conflict with Russia – escalates to nuclear war

Nankivell 5 (Nathan Nankivell, Senior Researcher at the Office of the Special Advisor Policy, Maritime Forces Pacific Headquarters, Canadian Department of National Defence, 12/3/05, "China’s pollution and its threat to domestic and regional stability" http://www.asianresearch.org/articles/2758.html

China’s environment is edging closer to a condition of crisis with each passing day.
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in full-scale war between two powerful, nuclear-equipped nations.

Continued pollution wrecks Chinese food security – increased demand means now is key

Watts 10 (Jonathan, Asia environment correspondent for The Guardian, 2/23/10, "China’s soil deterioration may become growing food crisis, adviser claims" http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/23/china-soil-deterioration-food-supply)

The quality of China’s overworked, polluted and artificially fertilised soil needs to be protected
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the government. This is a tense balance that can be easily broken."

Chinese instability results in an internal war that causes lash-out

Kane and Serewicz 1 ~Thomas. Security Studies from Hull. And Lawrence – Foreign Policy Analyst "China’s Hunger: The Consequences of a Rising Demand for Food and Energy" Parameters, Fall 2001~
Despite China’s problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be
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China’s government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.

Tournament: Harvard RR | Round: 3 | Opponent: Carrolton GR | Judge: Quigley

1AC Plan Text

The United States federal government should substantially increase its infrastructure assistance towards Mexico through the North American Development Bank

1AC Manufacturing

U.S.-Mexico trade is increasing, but delays make it unsustainable—-border congestion undermines U.S. manufacturing and competitiveness

Wilson and Lee 11 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011) and has coauthored op-ed columns for the Wall Street Journal and Dallas Morning News. Chris previously served as a Mexico Analyst for the U.S. Military and as a researcher for Dr. Robert Pastor at American University’s Center for North American Studies. In Mexico, he worked with the international trade consultancy IQOM, Inteligencia Comercial, and with American students studying regional political and social issues. Before joining the Wilson Center as Associate, Chris worked as a consultant with the Mexico Institute on U.S.-Mexico economic relations. He completed his M.A. in International Affairs at American University, focusing on U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-Mexico relations, and Erik Lee, serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University. He is responsible for a legislative research, policy advising and coordination with numerous partners in the United States, Mexico and Canada on various collaborative initiatives related to trade, security and sustainability. He is the co-author of "Realizing the Full Value of our Crossborder Trade with Mexico" and "Realizing the Value of Tourism from Mexico to the United States" (2012). He serves on the international advisory board for the journal Latin American Policy. Mr. Lee was previously program officer for the Merage Foundation for the American Dream, assistant director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego and assistant managing director at the Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy at San Diego State University. He has consulted for philanthropic and educational organizations and has also served as a resource for a large number of local, national and international media outlets. Before completing his master’s degree in Latin American Studies at UCSD in 2000, Mr. Lee worked as a university administrator and instructor in Hermosillo, Sonora. The two are coauthors of the trade and competitiveness chapter in the forthcoming "State of the Border Report," (Christopher E. Wilson, Erik Lee, Site Selection, July 2012, "Whole Nations Waiting," http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm, Accessed 09-09-2013)

Commerce between the United States and Mexico is one of the great — yet underappreciated
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is the United States’ second largest export market and third largest trading partner.
Seventy percent of bilateral commerce crosses the border via trucks, meaning the border region is literally where "the rubber hits the road" for bilateral relations. This also means that not only California and Baja California, but also Michigan and Michoacán, all have a major stake in efficient and secure border management.
The quantity of U.S.-Mexico trade is impressive, but its quality
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the U.S. also have a high level of Mexican content.
This system of joint production has two important consequences. First, it means that
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customs requirements each time they cross the U.S.-Mexico border.
Corridors in Crisis
This trade relationship requires major infrastructure to function effectively. The largest trade corridor,
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POEs that serve as nodes in this network — will experience added stress.
Unfortunately, the infrastructure and capacity of the ports of entry to process goods and
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are needed that strengthen both border security and efficiency at the same time.
The integrated nature of the North American manufacturing sector makes eliminating border congestion an important
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but has since rebounded strongly, growing significantly faster than trade with China.
But the growth of trade continues to add pressure on the already strained POEs and
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costing the United States and Mexican economies many billions of dollars each year.
Moderate investments to update infrastructure and to fully staff the ports of entry are certainly
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vetted, low-risk individuals and shipments expedited passage across the border.
Common Voice
Improving these programs and significantly expanding enrollment could increase throughput with minimal investments in infrastructure and staffing — all while strengthening security by giving border officials more time to focus on unknown and potentially dangerous individuals and shipments. The development of the 21st Century Border initiative by the Obama and Calderón administrations has yielded some advances in this direction, but the efforts need to be redoubled.
The 1990s were the decade of NAFTA and skyrocketing trade. The 2000s saw security concerns grow and recession struck. The new decade has only just begun, but the potential is there for a resurgence of competitiveness and regional integration. There are strong ideas — including trusted traveler and shipper programs, preclearance, customs harmonization, and public-private partnerships — that have enormous potential.

Absent the plan, companies will offshore to Asia

Leone 12 — Christopher Leone, Cronkite News, 6/1/12, "Panel says U.S.-Mexico border issues hinder huge economic opportunities" http://cronkitenewsonline.com/2012/06/panel-says-u-s-mexico-border-issues-hinder-huge-economic-opportunities/)

"Border friction costs us," Wilson said. "We don’t have to give
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is as much as 246 billion in backlogged maintenance to that infrastructure.

The plan locks-in a manufacturing renaissance—-lower transportation costs encourage reshoring and solve production shut-downs

Wilson 13 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011), and an editor and author of the Institute’s forthcoming State of the Border Report (Christopher E. Wilson, Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, January 2013, "A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region," New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf, Accessed 09-14-2013)

At a time when Mexico is poised to experience robust economic growth, a manufacturing
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action to support regional exporters more politically divisive than it ought to be.
The United States and Mexico have become profoundly integrated, and the two countries are
AND
inefficient customs procedures), strengthen the competitiveness of manufacturers throughout the whole region.
An Evolving Context
The Advent of Advanced Manufacturing and the Return of North American Competitiveness
Driven by a series of global developments and technological advances, a manufacturing renaissance is taking hold in the United States and Mexico that is increasing the competitiveness of regional industry and the volume of U.S.-Mexico trade. After many companies moved their factories to Asia in search of cheap wages over the past two decades, new trends are pulling production facilities back to North America.
While manufacturing wages in China were four times less than Mexico in 2000, they
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of the world, particularly in terms of serving markets throughout the Americas.
For example, between 2007 and December 2012, the value of the Mexican Peso fell by 17 percent compared to the U.S. Dollar and by a full 33 percent compared to the Chinese Yuan, improving the competitiveness of regional exports vis-à-vis Chinese goods.2 Crude oil prices rose 231 percent between 2002 and 2012, thus raising shipping costs and incentivizing the use of shorter, regional rather than longer, transcontinental supply chains.3
New drilling techniques, however, are changing the outlook for oil and especially natural
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develop the pipeline infrastructure to support increased gas imports from the United States.
Technological advances and improvements in the manufacturing process and logistics are revolutionizing industrial production in
AND
the portions of production that still require a higher degree of manual labor.
The widespread implementation of lean manufacturing principles has improved the efficiency and agility of factories
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potential to shut down production until the needed parts arrive at their destination.

The plan sustains the aerospace and defense industry—-U.S.-Mexico supply chains are key

Guidi 11 — was the Fronteras reporter at KPBS, covering immigration, border issues and culture. She’s a journalist and producer with experience working in radio, print, and multimedia, and has reported from the Caribbean, South and Central America, as well as the U.S.-Mexico border region. She’s a recipient of Johns Hopkins University’s International Reporting Project (IRP) Fellowship, which took her to Haiti for a project about development aid and human rights in 2008. That year, she was also a finalist for the Livingston Award for International Reporting, given to U.S. journalists under 35 years of age. Previously, she did reporting and production work for the BBC public radio news program, The World. Her stories focused on Latin American politics, human rights, rural communities, immigration, popular culture and music. After earning a Master’s degree in journalism from U.C. Berkeley in 2002, she worked for independent radio producers The Kitchen Sisters. In 2003, she moved to Austin, TX, where she did production and reporting work for NPR’s weekly show, Latino USA. Ruxandra has also produced features and documentaries for the BBC World Service in Spanish, National Public Radio, The Walrus Magazine, Guernica Magazine, Virginia Quarterly Review, World Vision Report, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Dispatches and Marketplace radio programs (Ruxandra Guidi, Fronteras Desk, 09-28-2011, "Border Business: Aerospace As A Binational Industry," http://www.fronterasdesk.org/news/2011/sep/28/business-mexico-aerospace-industry-maquiladora, Accessed 09-18-2013)

With its high-profile speakers and 3D simulation stations, the second annual Baja Aero Space Show did a pretty good job of putting the Mexican state of Baja California on the map — at least when it comes to aerospace manufacturing.
"People’s perceptions about what cross-border manufacturing, what maquiladoras are like, is still based upon what was happening in the 70s and maybe the 80s," said Kenn Morris, president of Crossborder Group, a San Diego-based market research firm.
"The fact is that a lot of the factories, whether they produce medical devices, aerospace, or electronics; they are built in such a way these days, and they’re managed in such a way, that they can be put anywhere on the planet," Morris said. "But they’re coming to Mexico."
According to Mexico’s Trade Ministry, more than 50 aerospace and defense companies have started operations in Baja in the last five to 10 years. Most of them are American and manufacture parts for companies like Honeywell, Goodrich and Gulfstream.
They produce a wide variety of items, from electronic components, air conditioning systems, and cable harnesses, to steel bolts for commercial and military aircraft. Their advantage is the proximity to the United States and to Western ports that ship to the Asian markets. They have access to a large, high-tech workforce in Tijuana, made up of engineers, technicians and software developers.
But the main reason the companies come to Baja is simple: The cost of that highly skilled labor is low — about one-third of what it is in the U.S.
Currently, the Baja aerospace industry employs more than 10,000 machine operators and technicians. And that number has been growing steadily since 2007, when Mexico dropped import duties on aeronautics components. According to Mexico’s Trade Ministry, between 2007 and 2008, the amount of aerospace companies with operations in the Mexican border state grew by 50 percent.

Decline of the U.S. manufacturing base emboldens China and causes regional aggression

Mosher 6 — Stephen Mosher, President and Director of the Population Research Institute,
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.S. Foreign Policy," 02-14-2006, Lexis) 

The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
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desire to reduce U.S. influence and presence in the region.

War in the South China Sea is likely now—-sovereignty disputes and nationalism undercut institutional checks on conflict

Lee 1-22 — Joseph Tse-Hei Lee, Professor of History at Pace University and Co-Editor of China’s Rise to Power: Conceptions of State Governance ("Not Too Peaceful: China’s Offshore Power Projection", 01-22-2014, Available Online at: http://www.moderntokyotimes.com/2014/01/22/not-too-peaceful-chinas-offshore-power-projection/, Accessed 01-28-2014)

Much media attention has focused on China’s readiness to exert its political and military power in the East and South China seas. The last few weeks of 2013 witnessed a rapid deterioration of the diplomatic goodwill that China had built among its maritime neighbors for decades, threatening regional stability and risking an arms race with the US and Japan.
China’s declaration of a vast air-defense identification zone over disputed territories in the East China Sea was extremely contentious. The Chinese action was far more aggressive than had been acknowledged in the media.
First, China has claimed more islands and waterways than it could actually possess under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Seeing no challenge to the projection of its offshore power, China called the East and South China seas areas of its "core concern" in 2010, built garrisons in strategic islands, and invested in a deep-sea navy to compete with the US in western Pacific.
When US Vice-President Joe Biden failed to persuade Chinese President Xi Jinping to abandon the newly imposed air-defense identification zone, China may interpret the US concession as a green light to the creation of another zone in the South China Sea, which would threaten the security of the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
Second, no institutional mechanism exists under current international laws to deal with the overlapping claims to maritime territories in East Asia. The latest diplomatic tensions arise due to a longstanding territorial conflict in which China proclaims to have sovereignty control over its maritime frontier.
The sovereignty disputes have sharpened the irreconcilable differences between China and neighbors over control of maritime space, especially groups of resource-rich islands, and over maritime jurisdiction related to actions taking place at international waters. Unless there is a multilateral framework capable of mediating conflicts among the claimant states, maritime rifts will get intensified in 2014.
Because of the escalating tensions, the East and South China seas have become a new battleground of US-Chinese rivalries. Detecting the rising discontent over Chinese offshore power projection, the US has not only clarified the status of the East and South China seas as open transportation corridors for all countries, but also supported Japan, South Korea, and the ASEAN to deal with China through multilateral negotiations, rather than bilateral talks that would only favor China.
To the US and its allies, freedom of the seas is an important international law that guarantees the freedom of navigation for vessels of all countries on the high sea, and this is fundamental to the existing global system. Any nation’s attempt to make an open-ocean zone its territorial sovereignty goes against the principle of freedom of the seas.
Fear of being marginalized, China condemned the ASEAN for siding with the US and Japan, and in so bullying Southeast Asia, China undercut decade-long diplomatic reassurances and confidence-building efforts. So far, China succeeded in using Cambodia to out-maneuverer the claimant countries of the ASEAN, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. This tactic was based on a premise that the ASEAN lacked a political will to confront China.
However, China may have misjudged the international situation and overplayed its hands in declaring the new air zone. President Xi Jinping’s confidence has to do with the country’s strength as the second largest economy in the world, the biggest buyer of US Treasury bounds, and the seemingly least affected nation in the 2008 global financial crisis.
But making other countries politically submissive is different from the art of winning trust and exercising leadership. China’s refusal to back down in maritime sovereignty disputes reveals the remnants of the Cold War thinking and the insensitivity towards many neighbors’ desires for peace.2

That escalates to great power nuclear war

Chakraborty 10 (Tuhin Subhro Chakraborty, Research Associate at Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies (RGICS), his primary area of work is centered on East Asia and International Relations. His recent work includes finding an alternative to the existing security dilemma in East Asia and the Pacific and Geo Political implications of the ’Rise of China’. Prior to joining RGICS, he was associated with the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, United Service Institution of India (USI) where he examined the role of India in securing Asia Pacific. He has coordinated conferences and workshops on United Nation Peacekeeping Visions and on China’s Quest for Global Dominance. He has written commentaries on issues relating to ASEAN, Asia Pacific Security Dilemma and US China relations. He also contributed in carrying out simulation exercise on the ’Afghanistan Scenario’ for the Foreign Service Institute (FSI). Tuhin interned at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Sapru House, wherein he worked on the Rise of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military budget and its impact on India. He graduated from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi and thereafter he undertook his masters in East Asian Studies from University of Delhi. His areas of interest include China, India-Japan bilateral relations, ASEAN, Asia Pacific security dynamics and Nuclear Issues, The United States Service Institution of India, 2010, "The Initiation 26 Outlook of ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus Eight", http://www.usiofindia.org/Article/?pub=Strategic20Perspective26pubno=2026ano=739)

The first ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Eight (China, India, Japan,
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a major conflict which has the possibility of turning into a nuclear conflict.

Independently, Taiwan conflict escalates to nuclear war

Lowther 13 — William Lowther, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (William Lowther, 03-16-2013, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
AND
arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

High risk of escalation

Ian Easton 1-31, research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, visiting fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo, was a China analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, China’s Deceptively Weak (and Dangerous) Military, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/chinas-deceptively-weak-and-dangerous-military/?allpages=yes
¶ Yet none of this should be comforting to China’s potential military adversaries. It
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let alone capture the capital and pacify the rest of the rugged island.

Prefer new evidence – China thinks they can win

David Axe 2-1, freelance military correspondent, China Thinks It Can Defeat America in Battle, https://medium.com/war-is-boring/874bffe1b1b9

That was then. But after two decades of sustained military modernization, the Chinese military has fundamentally changed its strategy in just the last year or so. According to Fuell, recent writings by PLA officers indicate "a growing confidence within the PLA that they can more-readily withstand U.S. involvement."
The preemptive strike is off the table—and with it, the risk of a full-scale American counterattack. Instead, Beijing believes it can attack Taiwan or another neighbor while also bloodlessly deterring U.S. intervention. It would do so by deploying such overwhelmingly strong military forces—ballistic missiles, aircraft carriers, jet fighters and the like—that Washington dare not get involved.
The knock-on effects of deterring America could be world-changing. "Backing away from our commitments to protect Taiwan, Japan or the Philippines would be tantamount to ceding East Asia to China’s domination," Roger Cliff, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said at the same U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on Jan. 30.
Worse, the world’s liberal economic order—and indeed, the whole notion of democracy—could suffer irreparable harm. "The United States has both a moral and a material interest in a world in which democratic nations can survive and thrive," Cliff asserted.

Aerospace deterrence is key—-it solves Chinese escalation

Dunlap 6 — Charles, Major General, Deputy Judge Advocate of the Air Force, National War College graduate with over 30 years of Armed Forces experience (Charles Dunlap Jr., Armed Forces Journal, "America’s Asymmetric Advantage," http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013)

America’s pre-eminence in air power is also the best hope we have to
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), the very existence of the U.S. is at risk.

Deterrence theory is true and empirically verifiable

Moore 4 — Director at the Center for Security Law at the University of Virginia, 7-time Presidential Appointee and Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law (John Norton Moore, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, pp. 27-31)

As so broadly conceived, there is strong evidence that deterrence, that is,
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with the later robust NATO alliance and absence of World War III.14
Considerable other evidence seems to support this historical analysis as to the importance of deterrence
AND
levels of perceived profit and military achievability of aggression in many such settings.
It should further be noted that the democratic peace is not the only significant correlation
AND
being presented with different options through the actions or effects of such organizations.
These external deterrence elements may also be yet another reason why democracies have a lower
AND
conscious of the rising costs of war and the rising gains of peace.
In assessing levels of democracy, there are indexes readily available, for example,
AND
that deterrence matters and that high levels of deterrence can prevent future war.
Following up on this initial effort to produce a more objective measure of deterrence,
AND
body subjectively faced substantial disincentives to aggressive military action and yet attacked."32
Yet another piece of the puzzle, which may clarify the extent of deterrence necessary in certain settings, may also assist in building a broader hypothesis about war. In fact, it has been incorporated into the just-discussed efforts at scoring deterrence.
That is, newer studies of human behavior from cognitive psychology are increasingly showing that
AND
It does, however, seem to elucidate some of the case studies.
In the war/peace setting, "prospect theory" suggests that deterrence may
AND
to achieve compulsion producing an action, rather than deterrence needed for prevention.
One should also be careful not to overstate the effect of "prospect theory"
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democracies fighting in defensive settings as they may also have more to lose.
In assessing adequacy of deterrence to prevent war, we might also want to consider
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totality of external factors, that is, deterrence, that become crucial.

1AC Warming

Global warming is real and anthropogenic

Prothero 12 (Donald Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College, Lecturer in Geobiology at CalTech, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," 3/1/12, EBSCO)

How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
AND
change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

It also causes extinction — positive feedbacks will push us past the tipping point.

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray Morgan, Professor of Current Affairs at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, "World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race," December 2009 Science Direct)

As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear
AND
civilization has been destroyed, and the question concerning human extinction becomes moot.

Action now prevents runaway warming — it’s not too late.

Hansen 8 (James Hansen, directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,  adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, "Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth," Nov/Dec 2008, http://www.columbia.edu/~~jeh1/mailings/2008/20081121_Obama.pdf)

Embers of election night elation will glow longer than any prior election. Glowing even
AND
and Middle East countries will decide to leave their oil in the ground. 

The plan solves:

1) Technical assistance — U.S. clean energy investment solves reduction and adaptation.

BECC 11 — Border Environment Cooperation Commission (Border Environment Cooperation Commission, November 2011, "Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region", http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC20WP2020Nov20201120index.pdf, Accessed 08-29-2013)

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION
This white paper describes the current deficit in the U.S.-Mexico border region in terms of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transportation projects focused on the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG). In the presentation, the argument is made that the primary reason this project deficit exists is due to: 

1. limited resources for project development,
   2. lack of capacity building, at the most fundamental level, in the public and public-private sectors, and
   3. lack of technical assistance program to address this deficit
   Specifically targeting a technical assistance program for renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transportation projects to achieve GHG reductions would be invaluable in promoting an environment for effective climate action in border communities. A proposed technical assistance program could help public sector entities build the bases on which they can develop both mitigation and adaptation greenhouse gas projects.
   Mitigation projects are the priority of the program since they are intended to directly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation projects are important as well, and it is recommended they be developed as "capacity building" initiatives to assist municipalities better manage the current realities of climate change. Ultimately, these project types do need technical assistance funds, and the funds will need a highly capacitated and experienced program manager. 

2) Global modeling — U.S.-Mexico cooperation persuades developing economies to transition.

Selee 12 — Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute, and Wilson, associate with the
Mexico Institute (Andrew and Christopher, November, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "A New Agenda With Mexico," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/a_new_agenda_with_mexico.pdf)

Over the past few years, the U.S. and Mexican governments have
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the developed and developing worlds, and between North America and Latin America. 

That’s key to solve climate change — U.S. investment in renewables is key.

Passell 12 (Peter Passell, the Economics Editor of Democracy Lab, is a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, 5/23/12, "Two Worlds, One Climate," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/23/two_worlds_one_climate?page=full)

Climate change, we are often told, is everyone’s problem. And without a
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with the army you’ve got, not the one you’d like to have.

1AC Solvency

The plan solves infrastructure development by expanding the NADBank mandate—-this ensures accountability, private investment, and Mexico says yes

Rodriguez 9 — Raul Rodriguez, serves as the Chairman of the Board of Advisors of the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University. He is also the Benson Chair in Banking and Finance and Distinguished Professor at the HEB School of Business and Administration at the University of the Incarnate Word in San Antonio, Texas and the President of RMI, an investment and trade consulting firm in Mexico. He served as CEO and Managing Director of the North American Development Bank (NADBank) until October 2005. Prior to joining the NADBank, he was Executive Director of the Mexican Foreign Trade Bank; the Bank’s Director for Asia; Mexico’s Trade Commissioner in Canada during the NAFTA negotiation; and Secretary of Economic Development for the Mexican border State of Tamaulipas. Mr. Rodriguez participates actively in community affairs at home in San Antonio, Texas, as Chairman of the World Affairs Council; Chairman Elect of The Free Trade Alliance; Mayoral appointee to the Board of Directors of the Port Authority of San Antonio; Chairman Elect and Vice President of the San Antonio - Mexico Friendship Council, among others. He is also a founding member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Advisory Council of the Harte Research Institute at Texas A26M University, the North American Forum, the U.S. - Mexico Futures Forum and the Border Trade Advisory Committee of the Texas Transportation Commission. He participated in the Foreign Affairs task force with President Calderon’s transition team in Mexico in October and November 2006 (Raul Rodriguez, The Wilson Center Mexico Institute and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, June 2009, "The Future of the North American Development Bank", http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/RODRIGUEZ20NADBANK.pdf, Accessed 08-21-2013)

Many agencies and programs have a bearing on border issues, but the region still lacks an effective and cohesive institutional base, particularly on a bilateral scale. Prevailing political thinking in Washington—and to a certain extent in Mexico City—and the current economic situation are not conducive to creating supranational structures; so while Europe bursts with a cumbersome and bloated institutional life, North America remains anemic by comparison.
Its mere existence and capacity for reform given its small size and overhead make NADB
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areas where it can be a vital funding and capacity-building instrument.
Mexico has sought a broader mandate for NADB since 2000. President Felipe Calderón has
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VI National Convention, American Chamber of Commerce; February 27, 2007).
Some progress has been made along Pres. Calderon’s line of thinking. In 2008
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part of their economic stimulus initiatives that will render synergies if closely coordinated.
A drawn-out debate has taken place among environmentalists along the border who would
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sectors would enhance the Bank’s ability to respond to projects lacking credit capacity.
Below are ten of the actions and policy initiatives that have been debated in recent years with regard to achieving an expanded and more effective role for NADB:
A. Expand the mandate to include additional infrastructure sectors:
The Bank requires a more flexible mandate that takes into account a broader set of criteria that do not focus excessively on quantifiable environmental benefits. Currently the Board sets very high environmental benefit thresholds on projects. Factors relating to the broader goals of infrastructure improvement and economic development should be considered in addition to environmental criteria in a balanced way.
Some sectors are more amenable than others for bilateral cooperation. Water—and environmental
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, coordination and harmonization issues should continue to be part of NADB’s focus.
The Bank should become more fully engaged with the development and expansion of ports of entry and border crossings. In the context of security imperatives, investments aimed at facilitating the construction and improvement of crossings through public-private partnerships might be the most important contribution to the border’s development today.
The need for legislation to authorize further expansion into other infrastructure sectors has been debated. Some suggest it is simply an issue for the governments to resolve. However, given the restrictive interpretations of the charter, if a favorable legislative climate develops its amendment would be advisable if broad mandate expansion were to be considered.
A lingering question is how much of a BECC certification process should be applied to projects in new sectors. Public and stakeholder participation in project development, approval and support has been a fundamental contribution of BECC over the years, but there is a concern—particularly among private sector investors—that it delays the funding process unduly. Expedited NADB lending approval processes will also be critical in order to foster more private sector participation.
As new sectors are addressed, it will be crucial to find even more creative ways to mitigate risks, foster long-term financing in the local currency, and leverage funds from different sources. A key role for the NADB will be to help enhance project conditions and provide guarantees in order to link with private financial markets where affordable long-term funds in a multi-year programming context might be available.  

The plan solves renewables development—-financing and technical assistance are key

Wood 10 — Duncan Wood, is the Director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. For 17 years, Dr. Wood was a professor and the director of the International Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) in Mexico City. He also held the role of researcher at the Centro de Derecho Económico Internacional at ITAM. He is a member of the Mexican National Research System, a member of the editorial board of Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica and has been an editorial advisor to Reforma newspaper. In 2007, he was a non?resident Fulbright Fellow. Between 2007 and 2009, he was technical secretary of the Red Mexicana de Energia, a group of experts in the area of energy policy in Mexico. He has been a Senior Associate with the Simon Chair and the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. His research focuses on Mexican energy policy, including renewable energy, and North American relations. He studied in the UK and Canada, receiving his PhD in Political Studies from Queen’s University, Canada in 1996 (Duncan Wood, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Mexico Institute, May 2010, "Environment, Development and Growth: U.S.-Mexico Cooperation in Renewable Energies", http://www.statealliancepartnership.org/resources_files/USMexico_Cooperation_Renewable_Energies.pdf, Accessed 08-22-2013)

Funding RE at the border – the role of the NADBANK
The North American Development Bank’s (NADBank) impact on questions of environmental management on
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studies relating to a range of clean energy projects throughout the border region.
Two recent projects stand out. In the first, a biodiesel project in El
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along the border offers the prospect of large scale production of clean biodiesel.
The second recent project that deserves attention here concerns the capture and processing of methane
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anaerobic digester to mix with irrigation water to be used in local farms.
Despite the growth in clean energy projects and the potential for meaningful investments in all
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, but bring jobs, increase profits, and satisfy a growing demand.
Even more worrying is the fact that the NADBank’s grants are in decline because of
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development and employment and economic opportunities, suggests that things are turning around.
Other institutions that have become important in the area of RE include the Border Governors Conference (BGC), which in 2002 created an energy committee and immediately seized on the potential for renewable energy in the border states. Its 2009 meeting in Monterrey, NL, had a significant emphasis on renewable energy at the border. The energy work table, for example, committed itself to three broad goals in the area:
• identify and promote a United States?Mexico border region program for renewable energy by exchanging information on policies and financial incentives;
• work with federal bi?national organizations, the Border Environment Cooperation Commission, the North American Development Bank and international organizations to facilitate project development;
• identify financial opportunities for at least one renewable energy project before 2010.
More importantly in terms of the long term vision of the BGC was the presentation
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improvement and prosperity, and to the potential for cross border RE flows.
The Plan emphasized the further development of border renewable energy projects, and laid out a number of policy proposals (see table below), including the creation of a "geo?referenced database of renewable energy resources" as a necessary step on the road to fully developing RE along the border. But, perhaps the most important contribution of the Plan was to redefine the scope of the border region:
The Plan contains an innovation regarding space: Rather than limiting itself to the area
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billion, equivalent to third?largest national economy in the world.59
This redefinition of the border region is of vital importance for expanding renewable energy activities
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projects that could benefit from assistance from the NADBank and from the BGC.

Tournament: MBA | Round: 1 | Opponent: Iowa City West MY | Judge: Jenny Heidt

1AC — Manufacturing

U.S.-Mexico trade is set to expand, but border congestion makes the relationship unsustainable — the plan boosts U.S. manufacturing and overall competitiveness.

Wilson and Lee 11 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011) and has coauthored op-ed columns for the Wall Street Journal and Dallas Morning News. Chris previously served as a Mexico Analyst for the U.S. Military and as a researcher for Dr. Robert Pastor at American University’s Center for North American Studies. In Mexico, he worked with the international trade consultancy IQOM, Inteligencia Comercial, and with American students studying regional political and social issues. Before joining the Wilson Center as Associate, Chris worked as a consultant with the Mexico Institute on U.S.-Mexico economic relations. He completed his M.A. in International Affairs at American University, focusing on U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-Mexico relations, and Erik Lee, serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University. He is responsible for a legislative research, policy advising and coordination with numerous partners in the United States, Mexico and Canada on various collaborative initiatives related to trade, security and sustainability. He is the co-author of "Realizing the Full Value of our Crossborder Trade with Mexico" and "Realizing the Value of Tourism from Mexico to the United States" (2012). He serves on the international advisory board for the journal Latin American Policy. Mr. Lee was previously program officer for the Merage Foundation for the American Dream, assistant director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego and assistant managing director at the Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy at San Diego State University. He has consulted for philanthropic and educational organizations and has also served as a resource for a large number of local, national and international media outlets. Before completing his master’s degree in Latin American Studies at UCSD in 2000, Mr. Lee worked as a university administrator and instructor in Hermosillo, Sonora. The two are coauthors of the trade and competitiveness chapter in the forthcoming "State of the Border Report," (Christopher E. Wilson, Erik Lee, Site Selection, July 2012, "Whole Nations Waiting," http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm-http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm, Accessed 09-09-2013)

Commerce between the United States and Mexico is one of the great — yet underappreciated
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is the United States’ second largest export market and third largest trading partner.
Seventy percent of bilateral commerce crosses the border via trucks, meaning the border region is literally where "the rubber hits the road" for bilateral relations. This also means that not only California and Baja California, but also Michigan and Michoacán, all have a major stake in efficient and secure border management.
The quantity of U.S.-Mexico trade is impressive, but its quality
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the U.S. also have a high level of Mexican content.
This system of joint production has two important consequences. First, it means that
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customs requirements each time they cross the U.S.-Mexico border.
Corridors in Crisis
This trade relationship requires major infrastructure to function effectively. The largest trade corridor,
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POEs that serve as nodes in this network — will experience added stress.
Unfortunately, the infrastructure and capacity of the ports of entry to process goods and
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are needed that strengthen both border security and efficiency at the same time.
The integrated nature of the North American manufacturing sector makes eliminating border congestion an important
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but has since rebounded strongly, growing significantly faster than trade with China.
But the growth of trade continues to add pressure on the already strained POEs and
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costing the United States and Mexican economies many billions of dollars each year.
Moderate investments to update infrastructure and to fully staff the ports of entry are certainly
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vetted, low-risk individuals and shipments expedited passage across the border.
Common Voice
Improving these programs and significantly expanding enrollment could increase throughput with minimal investments in infrastructure and staffing — all while strengthening security by giving border officials more time to focus on unknown and potentially dangerous individuals and shipments. The development of the 21st Century Border initiative by the Obama and Calderón administrations has yielded some advances in this direction, but the efforts need to be redoubled.
The 1990s were the decade of NAFTA and skyrocketing trade. The 2000s saw security concerns grow and recession struck. The new decade has only just begun, but the potential is there for a resurgence of competitiveness and regional integration. There are strong ideas — including trusted traveler and shipper programs, preclearance, customs harmonization, and public-private partnerships — that have enormous potential.

Absent the plan, border delays will cause U.S. companies to offshore to Asia.

Leone 12 — Christopher Leone, Cronkite News, 6/1/12, "Panel says U.S.-Mexico border issues hinder huge economic opportunities" http://cronkitenewsonline.com/2012/06/panel-says-u-s-mexico-border-issues-hinder-huge-economic-opportunities/)

"Border friction costs us," Wilson said. "We don’t have to give
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is as much as 246 billion in backlogged maintenance to that infrastructure.

Improvements in border efficiency prevent production shut-downs — lower transportation costs solidify trends of nearshoring and sustain the manufacturing base.

Wilson 13 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011), and an editor and author of the Institute’s forthcoming State of the Border Report (Christopher E. Wilson, Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, January 2013, "A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region," New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf-http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf, Accessed 09-14-2013)

At a time when Mexico is poised to experience robust economic growth, a manufacturing
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action to support regional exporters more politically divisive than it ought to be.
The United States and Mexico have become profoundly integrated, and the two countries are
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inefficient customs procedures), strengthen the competitiveness of manufacturers throughout the whole region.
An Evolving Context
The Advent of Advanced Manufacturing and the Return of North American Competitiveness
Driven by a series of global developments and technological advances, a manufacturing renaissance is taking hold in the United States and Mexico that is increasing the competitiveness of regional industry and the volume of U.S.-Mexico trade. After many companies moved their factories to Asia in search of cheap wages over the past two decades, new trends are pulling production facilities back to North America.
While manufacturing wages in China were four times less than Mexico in 2000, they
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of the world, particularly in terms of serving markets throughout the Americas.
For example, between 2007 and December 2012, the value of the Mexican Peso fell by 17 percent compared to the U.S. Dollar and by a full 33 percent compared to the Chinese Yuan, improving the competitiveness of regional exports vis-à-vis Chinese goods.2 Crude oil prices rose 231 percent between 2002 and 2012, thus raising shipping costs and incentivizing the use of shorter, regional rather than longer, transcontinental supply chains.3
New drilling techniques, however, are changing the outlook for oil and especially natural
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develop the pipeline infrastructure to support increased gas imports from the United States.
Technological advances and improvements in the manufacturing process and logistics are revolutionizing industrial production in
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the portions of production that still require a higher degree of manual labor.
The widespread implementation of lean manufacturing principles has improved the efficiency and agility of factories
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potential to shut down production until the needed parts arrive at their destination.

U.S. manufacturing is the vital internal link to competitiveness, innovation, and growth.

Popkin 3 — Joel Popkin, received his BS degree from the Wharton School of Finance of the University of Pennsylvania and his Ph.D. in economics from the same university. He is a fellow of the National Association of Business Economists and the American Statistical Association and past Chairman of the Conference of Business Economists. He has been Chairman of the Board of the National Economists Club, a member of the Committee of Visitors to the economics department of the University of Pennsylvania, and a member of the boards of the American Statistical Association, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Economic Strategy Institute (Joel Popkin and Company, June 2003, "Securing America’s Future: The Case for a Strong Manufacturing Base," http://www.jpcecon.com/NAM_PopkinPaper.pdf-http://www.jpcecon.com/NAM_PopkinPaper.pdf, Accessed 09-18-2013)

U.S. manufacturing is the heart of a significant process that generates economic growth and has produced the highest living standards in history. But today this complex process faces serious domestic and international challenges which, if not overcome, will lead to reduced economic growth and ultimately a decline in living standards for future generations of Americans.
Manufacturing’s innovation process is the key to past, present and future prosperity and higher
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living standards, most of it is hidden from view and poorly understood.
Manufacturing’s innovation process provides enormous benefits for the entire U.S. economy:
- Grows the Economy - Manufacturing growth spawns more additional economic activity and jobs than any other economic sector. Every 241 of final demand for manufactured goods generates an additional 240.67 in other manufactured products and 240.76 in products and services from nonmanufacturing sectors.
- Invents the Future - Manufacturers are responsible for almost two-thirds of all private sector R26D – 24127 billion in 2002. Spillovers from this R26D benefit other manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms. R26D spillovers are enhanced by geographic proximity.
- Generates Productivity Increases - Manufacturing productivity gains are historically higher than those of any other economic sector – over the past two decades, manufacturing averaged twice the annual productivity gains of the rest of the private sector. These gains enable Americans to do more with less, increase our ability to compete, and facilitate higher wages for all employees.
- Provides More Rewarding Employment - Manufacturing salaries and benefits average 2454,000, higher than the average for the total private sector. Two factors in particular attract workers to manufacturing: higher pay and benefits, and opportunities for advanced education and training.
- Pays the Taxes - Manufacturing has been an important contributor to regional economic growth and tax receipts at all levels of government. During the 1990s, manufacturing corporations paid 30-34 percent of all corporate taxes collected by state and local governments, Social Security and payroll taxes, excise taxes, import and tariff duties, environmental taxes and license taxes.
Meanwhile, other nations, recognizing that a strong manufacturing base is the proven path
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repair and with it the seedbed of our industrial strength and competitive edge.

Competitiveness prevents great power conflict.

Baru 9 — Sanjaya Baru, Visiting Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and Institute of South Asian Studies (Singapore), 2009 ("Year of the power shift?," Seminar, ~23593, January, Available Online at http://www.india-seminar.com/2009/593/593_sanjaya_baru.htm-http://www.india-seminar.com/2009/593/593_sanjaya_baru.htm, Accessed 05-21-2013)

There is no doubt that economics alone will not determine the balance of global power
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economic growth and military power – the classic ’guns vs butter’ dilemma.

Additionally, border manufacturing is key to the aerospace and defense industry.

Guidi 11 — was the Fronteras reporter at KPBS, covering immigration, border issues and culture. She’s a journalist and producer with experience working in radio, print, and multimedia, and has reported from the Caribbean, South and Central America, as well as the U.S.-Mexico border region. She’s a recipient of Johns Hopkins University’s International Reporting Project (IRP) Fellowship, which took her to Haiti for a project about development aid and human rights in 2008. That year, she was also a finalist for the Livingston Award for International Reporting, given to U.S. journalists under 35 years of age. Previously, she did reporting and production work for the BBC public radio news program, The World. Her stories focused on Latin American politics, human rights, rural communities, immigration, popular culture and music. After earning a Master’s degree in journalism from U.C. Berkeley in 2002, she worked for independent radio producers The Kitchen Sisters. In 2003, she moved to Austin, TX, where she did production and reporting work for NPR’s weekly show, Latino USA. Ruxandra has also produced features and documentaries for the BBC World Service in Spanish, National Public Radio, The Walrus Magazine, Guernica Magazine, Virginia Quarterly Review, World Vision Report, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Dispatches and Marketplace radio programs (Ruxandra Guidi, Fronteras Desk, 09-28-2011, "Border Business: Aerospace As A Binational Industry," http://www.fronterasdesk.org/news/2011/sep/28/business-mexico-aerospace-industry-maquiladora-http://www.fronterasdesk.org/news/2011/sep/28/business-mexico-aerospace-industry-maquiladora, Accessed 09-18-2013)

With its high-profile speakers and 3D simulation stations, the second annual Baja Aero Space Show did a pretty good job of putting the Mexican state of Baja California on the map — at least when it comes to aerospace manufacturing.
"People’s perceptions about what cross-border manufacturing, what maquiladoras are like, is still based upon what was happening in the 70s and maybe the 80s," said Kenn Morris, president of Crossborder Group, a San Diego-based market research firm.
"The fact is that a lot of the factories, whether they produce medical devices, aerospace, or electronics; they are built in such a way these days, and they’re managed in such a way, that they can be put anywhere on the planet," Morris said. "But they’re coming to Mexico."
According to Mexico’s Trade Ministry, more than 50 aerospace and defense companies have started operations in Baja in the last five to 10 years. Most of them are American and manufacture parts for companies like Honeywell, Goodrich and Gulfstream.
They produce a wide variety of items, from electronic components, air conditioning systems, and cable harnesses, to steel bolts for commercial and military aircraft. Their advantage is the proximity to the United States and to Western ports that ship to the Asian markets. They have access to a large, high-tech workforce in Tijuana, made up of engineers, technicians and software developers.
But the main reason the companies come to Baja is simple: The cost of that highly skilled labor is low — about one-third of what it is in the U.S.
Currently, the Baja aerospace industry employs more than 10,000 machine operators and technicians. And that number has been growing steadily since 2007, when Mexico dropped import duties on aeronautics components. According to Mexico’s Trade Ministry, between 2007 and 2008, the amount of aerospace companies with operations in the Mexican border state grew by 50 percent.

That’s key to deter China and prevent war over Taiwan.

Mosher 6 — Stephen Mosher, President and Director of the Population Research Institute,
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.S. Foreign Policy," 02-14-2006, Lexis) 

The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
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American military assets in the Asian-Pacific will have to be neutralized.

Taiwan conflict triggers miscalculation — escalates to nuclear war.

Lowther 13 — William Lowther, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (William Lowther, 03-16-2013, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211-http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
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arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

However, a strong aerospace industry maintains deterrence — prevents Chinese aggression.

Dunlap 6 — Charles, Major General, Deputy Judge Advocate of the Air Force, National War College graduate with over 30 years of Armed Forces experience (Charles Dunlap Jr., Armed Forces Journal, "America’s Asymmetric Advantage," http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013-http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013)

America’s pre-eminence in air power is also the best hope we have to
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), the very existence of the U.S. is at risk.

Manufacturing and defense capabilities control conflict-escalation — makes war obsolete.

O’Hanlon 12 — Michael O’Hanlon, is a senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence and director of research for the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American foreign policy. He is a visiting lecturer at Princeton University, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University, and a member of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. O’Hanlon is a member of the External Advisory Board at the Central Intelligence Agency (Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings, January 2012, "The Arsenal of Democracy and How to Preserve It: Key Issues in Defense Industrial Policy," http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/2620defense20industrial20base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/1/26 defense industrial base/0126_defense_industrial_base_ohanlon, Accessed 09-18-2013)

The current wave of defense cuts is also different than past defense budget reductions in
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civilian and military export opportunities for the United States in a globalized marketplace.

Our heuristic is empirically verifiable — deterrence and incentive theory provide an accurate explanation of international relations.

Moore 4 — Director at the Center for Security Law at the University of Virginia, 7-time Presidential Appointee and Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law (John Norton Moore, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, pp. 27-31)

As so broadly conceived, there is strong evidence that deterrence, that is,
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with the later robust NATO alliance and absence of World War III.14
Considerable other evidence seems to support this historical analysis as to the importance of deterrence
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levels of perceived profit and military achievability of aggression in many such settings.
It should further be noted that the democratic peace is not the only significant correlation
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being presented with different options through the actions or effects of such organizations.
These external deterrence elements may also be yet another reason why democracies have a lower
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conscious of the rising costs of war and the rising gains of peace.
In assessing levels of democracy, there are indexes readily available, for example,
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that deterrence matters and that high levels of deterrence can prevent future war.
Following up on this initial effort to produce a more objective measure of deterrence,
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body subjectively faced substantial disincentives to aggressive military action and yet attacked."32
Yet another piece of the puzzle, which may clarify the extent of deterrence necessary in certain settings, may also assist in building a broader hypothesis about war. In fact, it has been incorporated into the just-discussed efforts at scoring deterrence.
That is, newer studies of human behavior from cognitive psychology are increasingly showing that
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It does, however, seem to elucidate some of the case studies.
In the war/peace setting, "prospect theory" suggests that deterrence may
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to achieve compulsion producing an action, rather than deterrence needed for prevention.
One should also be careful not to overstate the effect of "prospect theory"
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democracies fighting in defensive settings as they may also have more to lose.
In assessing adequacy of deterrence to prevent war, we might also want to consider
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totality of external factors, that is, deterrence, that become crucial.

1AC — Warming

Global warming is real and anthropogenic.

Prothero 12 (Donald Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College, Lecturer in Geobiology at CalTech, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," 3/1/12, EBSCO)

How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
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change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

It also causes extinction — positive feedbacks will push us past the tipping point.

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray Morgan, Professor of Current Affairs at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, "World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race," December 2009 Science Direct)

As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear
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civilization has been destroyed, and the question concerning human extinction becomes moot.

Action now prevents runaway warming — it’s not too late.

Hansen 8 (James Hansen, directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,  adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, "Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth," Nov/Dec 2008, http://www.columbia.edu/~~jeh1/mailings/2008/20081121_Obama.pdf-http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20081121_Obama.pdf)

Embers of election night elation will glow longer than any prior election. Glowing even
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and Middle East countries will decide to leave their oil in the ground. 

The plan solves:

1) Technical assistance — U.S. clean energy investment solves reduction and adaptation.

BECC 11 — Border Environment Cooperation Commission (Border Environment Cooperation Commission, November 2011, "Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region", http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC20WP2020Nov20201120index.pdf-http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC WP  Nov 2011 index.pdf, Accessed 08-29-2013)

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION
This white paper describes the current deficit in the U.S.-Mexico border region in terms of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transportation projects focused on the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG). In the presentation, the argument is made that the primary reason this project deficit exists is due to: 

1. limited resources for project development,
   2. lack of capacity building, at the most fundamental level, in the public and public-private sectors, and
   3. lack of technical assistance program to address this deficit
   Specifically targeting a technical assistance program for renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transportation projects to achieve GHG reductions would be invaluable in promoting an environment for effective climate action in border communities. A proposed technical assistance program could help public sector entities build the bases on which they can develop both mitigation and adaptation greenhouse gas projects.
   Mitigation projects are the priority of the program since they are intended to directly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation projects are important as well, and it is recommended they be developed as "capacity building" initiatives to assist municipalities better manage the current realities of climate change. Ultimately, these project types do need technical assistance funds, and the funds will need a highly capacitated and experienced program manager. 

2) Global modeling — U.S.-Mexico cooperation persuades developing economies to transition.

Selee 12 — Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute, and Wilson, associate with the
Mexico Institute (Andrew and Christopher, November, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "A New Agenda With Mexico," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/a_new_agenda_with_mexico.pdf-http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/a_new_agenda_with_mexico.pdf)

Over the past few years, the U.S. and Mexican governments have
AND
the developed and developing worlds, and between North America and Latin America. 

That’s key to solve climate change — U.S. investment in renewables is key.

Passell 12 (Peter Passell, the Economics Editor of Democracy Lab, is a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, 5/23/12, "Two Worlds, One Climate," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/23/two_worlds_one_climate?page=full)

Climate change, we are often told, is everyone’s problem. And without a
AND
with the army you’ve got, not the one you’d like to have.

Thus the plan:

The United States federal government should substantially increase its infrastructure assistance toward Mexico through the North American Development Bank.

1AC — Solvency

Expanding the NADBank mandate solves infrastructure development — the plan ensures accountability, private investment, and Mexico says yes.

Rodriguez 9 — Raul Rodriguez, serves as the Chairman of the Board of Advisors of the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University. He is also the Benson Chair in Banking and Finance and Distinguished Professor at the HEB School of Business and Administration at the University of the Incarnate Word in San Antonio, Texas and the President of RMI, an investment and trade consulting firm in Mexico. He served as CEO and Managing Director of the North American Development Bank (NADBank) until October 2005. Prior to joining the NADBank, he was Executive Director of the Mexican Foreign Trade Bank; the Bank’s Director for Asia; Mexico’s Trade Commissioner in Canada during the NAFTA negotiation; and Secretary of Economic Development for the Mexican border State of Tamaulipas. Mr. Rodriguez participates actively in community affairs at home in San Antonio, Texas, as Chairman of the World Affairs Council; Chairman Elect of The Free Trade Alliance; Mayoral appointee to the Board of Directors of the Port Authority of San Antonio; Chairman Elect and Vice President of the San Antonio - Mexico Friendship Council, among others. He is also a founding member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Advisory Council of the Harte Research Institute at Texas A26M University, the North American Forum, the U.S. - Mexico Futures Forum and the Border Trade Advisory Committee of the Texas Transportation Commission. He participated in the Foreign Affairs task force with President Calderon’s transition team in Mexico in October and November 2006 (Raul Rodriguez, The Wilson Center Mexico Institute and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, June 2009, "The Future of the North American Development Bank", http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/RODRIGUEZ20NADBANK.pdf-http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/RODRIGUEZ NADBANK.pdf, Accessed 08-21-2013)

Many agencies and programs have a bearing on border issues, but the region still lacks an effective and cohesive institutional base, particularly on a bilateral scale. Prevailing political thinking in Washington—and to a certain extent in Mexico City—and the current economic situation are not conducive to creating supranational structures; so while Europe bursts with a cumbersome and bloated institutional life, North America remains anemic by comparison.
Its mere existence and capacity for reform given its small size and overhead make NADB
AND
areas where it can be a vital funding and capacity-building instrument.
Mexico has sought a broader mandate for NADB since 2000. President Felipe Calderón has
AND
VI National Convention, American Chamber of Commerce; February 27, 2007).
Some progress has been made along Pres. Calderon’s line of thinking. In 2008
AND
part of their economic stimulus initiatives that will render synergies if closely coordinated.
A drawn-out debate has taken place among environmentalists along the border who would
AND
sectors would enhance the Bank’s ability to respond to projects lacking credit capacity.
Below are ten of the actions and policy initiatives that have been debated in recent years with regard to achieving an expanded and more effective role for NADB:
A. Expand the mandate to include additional infrastructure sectors:
The Bank requires a more flexible mandate that takes into account a broader set of criteria that do not focus excessively on quantifiable environmental benefits. Currently the Board sets very high environmental benefit thresholds on projects. Factors relating to the broader goals of infrastructure improvement and economic development should be considered in addition to environmental criteria in a balanced way.
Some sectors are more amenable than others for bilateral cooperation. Water—and environmental
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, coordination and harmonization issues should continue to be part of NADB’s focus.
The Bank should become more fully engaged with the development and expansion of ports of entry and border crossings. In the context of security imperatives, investments aimed at facilitating the construction and improvement of crossings through public-private partnerships might be the most important contribution to the border’s development today.
The need for legislation to authorize further expansion into other infrastructure sectors has been debated. Some suggest it is simply an issue for the governments to resolve. However, given the restrictive interpretations of the charter, if a favorable legislative climate develops its amendment would be advisable if broad mandate expansion were to be considered.
A lingering question is how much of a BECC certification process should be applied to projects in new sectors. Public and stakeholder participation in project development, approval and support has been a fundamental contribution of BECC over the years, but there is a concern—particularly among private sector investors—that it delays the funding process unduly. Expedited NADB lending approval processes will also be critical in order to foster more private sector participation.
As new sectors are addressed, it will be crucial to find even more creative ways to mitigate risks, foster long-term financing in the local currency, and leverage funds from different sources. A key role for the NADB will be to help enhance project conditions and provide guarantees in order to link with private financial markets where affordable long-term funds in a multi-year programming context might be available.  

Additionally, the plan catalyzes renewables development with Mexico — the NADBank is key to financing and technical assistance.

Wood 10 — Duncan Wood, is the Director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. For 17 years, Dr. Wood was a professor and the director of the International Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) in Mexico City. He also held the role of researcher at the Centro de Derecho Económico Internacional at ITAM. He is a member of the Mexican National Research System, a member of the editorial board of Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica and has been an editorial advisor to Reforma newspaper. In 2007, he was a non?resident Fulbright Fellow. Between 2007 and 2009, he was technical secretary of the Red Mexicana de Energia, a group of experts in the area of energy policy in Mexico. He has been a Senior Associate with the Simon Chair and the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. His research focuses on Mexican energy policy, including renewable energy, and North American relations. He studied in the UK and Canada, receiving his PhD in Political Studies from Queen’s University, Canada in 1996 (Duncan Wood, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Mexico Institute, May 2010, "Environment, Development and Growth: U.S.-Mexico Cooperation in Renewable Energies", http://www.statealliancepartnership.org/resources_files/USMexico_Cooperation_Renewable_Energies.pdf-http://www.statealliancepartnership.org/resources_files/USMexico_Cooperation_Renewable_Energies.pdf, Accessed 08-22-2013)

Funding RE at the border – the role of the NADBANK
The North American Development Bank’s (NADBank) impact on questions of environmental management on
AND
studies relating to a range of clean energy projects throughout the border region.
Two recent projects stand out. In the first, a biodiesel project in El
AND
along the border offers the prospect of large scale production of clean biodiesel.
The second recent project that deserves attention here concerns the capture and processing of methane
AND
anaerobic digester to mix with irrigation water to be used in local farms.
Despite the growth in clean energy projects and the potential for meaningful investments in all
AND
, but bring jobs, increase profits, and satisfy a growing demand.
Even more worrying is the fact that the NADBank’s grants are in decline because of
AND
development and employment and economic opportunities, suggests that things are turning around.
Other institutions that have become important in the area of RE include the Border Governors Conference (BGC), which in 2002 created an energy committee and immediately seized on the potential for renewable energy in the border states. Its 2009 meeting in Monterrey, NL, had a significant emphasis on renewable energy at the border. The energy work table, for example, committed itself to three broad goals in the area:
• identify and promote a United States?Mexico border region program for renewable energy by exchanging information on policies and financial incentives;
• work with federal bi?national organizations, the Border Environment Cooperation Commission, the North American Development Bank and international organizations to facilitate project development;
• identify financial opportunities for at least one renewable energy project before 2010.
More importantly in terms of the long term vision of the BGC was the presentation
AND
improvement and prosperity, and to the potential for cross border RE flows.
The Plan emphasized the further development of border renewable energy projects, and laid out a number of policy proposals (see table below), including the creation of a "geo?referenced database of renewable energy resources" as a necessary step on the road to fully developing RE along the border. But, perhaps the most important contribution of the Plan was to redefine the scope of the border region:
The Plan contains an innovation regarding space: Rather than limiting itself to the area
AND
billion, equivalent to third?largest national economy in the world.59
This redefinition of the border region is of vital importance for expanding renewable energy activities
AND
projects that could benefit from assistance from the NADBank and from the BGC.

Tournament: Greenhill RR | Round: 3 | Opponent: Bronx Law AL | Judge: Greenstein, Kall

1AC — Warming

The United States federal government should substantially increase its infrastructure assistance toward Mexico through the North American Development Bank.

Global warming is real and anthropogenic.

Prothero 12 (Donald Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College, Lecturer in Geobiology at CalTech, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," 3/1/12, EBSCO)

How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
AND
change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

It also causes extinction — positive feedbacks will push us past the tipping point.

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray Morgan, Professor of Current Affairs at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, "World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race," December 2009 Science Direct)

As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear
AND
civilization has been destroyed, and the question concerning human extinction becomes moot.

Action now prevents runaway warming — it’s not too late.

Hansen 8 (James Hansen, directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies,  adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, "Tell Barack Obama the Truth – The Whole Truth," Nov/Dec 2008, http://www.columbia.edu/~~jeh1/mailings/2008/20081121_Obama.pdf)

Embers of election night elation will glow longer than any prior election. Glowing even
AND
and Middle East countries will decide to leave their oil in the ground. 

The plan solves:

1) Technical assistance — U.S. clean energy investment solves reduction and adaptation.

BECC 11 — Border Environment Cooperation Commission (Border Environment Cooperation Commission, November 2011, "Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region", http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC20WP2020Nov20201120index.pdf, Accessed 08-29-2013)

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION
This white paper describes the current deficit in the U.S.-Mexico border region in terms of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transportation projects focused on the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG). In the presentation, the argument is made that the primary reason this project deficit exists is due to: 

1. limited resources for project development,
   2. lack of capacity building, at the most fundamental level, in the public and public-private sectors, and
   3. lack of technical assistance program to address this deficit
   Specifically targeting a technical assistance program for renewable energy, energy efficiency, and transportation projects to achieve GHG reductions would be invaluable in promoting an environment for effective climate action in border communities. A proposed technical assistance program could help public sector entities build the bases on which they can develop both mitigation and adaptation greenhouse gas projects.
   Mitigation projects are the priority of the program since they are intended to directly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation projects are important as well, and it is recommended they be developed as "capacity building" initiatives to assist municipalities better manage the current realities of climate change. Ultimately, these project types do need technical assistance funds, and the funds will need a highly capacitated and experienced program manager. 

2) Global modeling — U.S.-Mexico cooperation persuades developing economies to transition.

Selee 12 — Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute, and Wilson, associate with the
Mexico Institute (Andrew and Christopher, November, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "A New Agenda With Mexico," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/a_new_agenda_with_mexico.pdf)

Over the past few years, the U.S. and Mexican governments have
AND
the developed and developing worlds, and between North America and Latin America. 

That’s key to solve climate change — U.S. investment in renewables is key.

Passell 12 (Peter Passell, the Economics Editor of Democracy Lab, is a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, 5/23/12, "Two Worlds, One Climate," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/23/two_worlds_one_climate?page=full)

Climate change, we are often told, is everyone’s problem. And without a
AND
with the army you’ve got, not the one you’d like to have.

Allowing warming and coal consumption to continue perpetuates and amplifies racist inequalities

Hoerner 8—Former director of Research at the Center for a Sustainable Economy, Director of Tax Policy at the Center for Global Change at the University of Maryland College Park, and editor of Natural Resources Tax Review. He has done research on environmental economics and policy on behalf of the governments of Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States. Andrew received his B.A. in Economics from Cornell University and a J.D. from Case Western Reserve School of Law—AND—Nia Robins—former inaugural Climate Justice Corps Fellow in 2003, director of Environmental Justice and Climate Change Initiative (J. Andrew, "A Climate of Change African Americans, Global Warming, and a Just Climate Policy for the U.S." July 2008, http://www.ejcc.org/climateofchange.pdf)

Everywhere we turn, the issues and impacts of climate change confront us. One
AND
points and raising the average African American income by 3 to 4 percent.

1AC — Solvency

Public advocacy of climate solutions key to change governmental policy—-individual change insufficient

CAG 10—Climate Change Communication Advisory Group. Dr Adam Corner School of Psychology, Cardiff University - Dr Tom Crompton Change Strategist, WWF-UK - Scott Davidson Programme Manager,  Global Action Plan - Richard Hawkins Senior Researcher,  Public Interest Research Centre - Professor Tim Kasser, Psychology department, Knox College, Galesburg, Illinois, USA.  - Dr Renee Lertzman, Center for Sustainable Processes 26  Practices, Portland State University, US. - Peter Lipman, Policy Director, Sustrans. - Dr Irene Lorenzoni, Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia. - George Marshall, Founding Director, Climate Outreach , Information Network - Dr Ciaran Mundy, Director, Transition Bristol - Dr Saffron O’Neil, Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, Australia.  - Professor Nick Pidgeon, Director, Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University. - Dr Anna Rabinovich, School of Psychology, University of Exeter - Rosemary Randall, Founder and director of Cambridge Carbon Footprint - Dr Lorraine Whitmarsh, School of Psychology, Cardiff University 26 Visiting Fellow at the, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. (Communicating climate change to mass public audience, http://pirc.info/downloads/communicating_climate_mass_audiences.pdf)

This short advisory paper collates a set of recommendations about how best to shape mass
AND
they would like structural barriers to behavioural/societal change to be removed.
 

Simulation and institutional deliberation are valuable and motivate effective responses to climate risks

Marx et al 7 (Sabine M, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) @ Columbia University, Elke U. Weber, Graduate School of Business and Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Benjamin S. Orlovea, Department of Environmental Science and Policy @ University of California Davis, Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, David H. Krantz, Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Carla Roncolia, South East Climate Consortium (SECC), Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering @ University of Georgia and Jennifer Phillips, Bard Centre for Environmental Policy @ Bard College, "Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information", 2007, http://climate.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Marx_GEC_2007.pdf)

Based on the observation that experiential and analytic processing systems compete and that personal experience
AND
engage both systems in the process of individual and group decision-making.
 

The state is inevitable and an indispensable part of the solution to warming

Eckersley 4 Robyn, Reader/Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Melbourne, "The Green State: Rethinking Democracy and Sovereignty", MIT Press, 2004, Google Books, pp. 3-8

While acknowledging the basis for this antipathy toward the nation- state, and the
AND
at least as a potentially more significant ally in the green cause.17
 

Pragmatic warming policy is effective and key to prevent extinction

Simpson 10 (Francis, College of Engineering, Vanderbilt University, "Environmental Pragmatism and its Application to Climate Change The Moral Obligations of Developed and Developing Nations to Avert Climate Change as viewed through Technological Pragmatism", Spring 2010 | Volume 6 | Number 1)

Pragmatism and Footprinting¶ Environmental pragmatism is a relatively new field of environmental ethics that
AND
have a moral obligation to protect the future of humanity and the biosphere.
 

Apocalyptic rhetoric is key in warming debates – it hasn’t actually been deployed yet

Romm 12 (Joe Romm is a Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, which New York Times columnist Tom Friedman called "the indispensable blog" and Time magazine named one of the 25 "Best Blogs of 2010.? In 2009, Rolling Stone put Romm ~2388 on its list of 100 "people who are reinventing America." Time named him a "Hero of the Environment? and "The Web’s most influential climate-change blogger." Romm was acting assistant secretary of energy for energy efficiency and renewable energy in 1997, where he oversaw 241 billion in R26D, demonstration, and deployment of low-carbon technology. He is a Senior Fellow at American Progress and holds a Ph.D. in physics from MIT., 2/26/2012, "Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media And The Myth of ’Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate", http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/26/432546/apocalypse-not-oscars-media-myth-of-repetition-of-doomsday-messages-on-climate/~~23more-432546)

The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday
AND
by most of the rest of the media, intelligentsia and popular culture.
 

Consensus-based climate science ensures best environmental policy

Rice 09 (Jennifer Lea, PHD in Phil Thesis, U of Arizona, "MAKING CARBON COUNT: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND LOCAL  CLIMATE GOVERNANCE IN THE UNITED STATES", http://arizona.openrepository.com/arizona/bitstream/10150/194452/1/azu_etd_10727_sip1_m.pdf~~23page=111)

In Seattle, the science of climate change has been framed in three distinct and
AND
multiple and diverse ways during  debates about urban governance in the Seattle area.
But how are these close relations of science and policy negotiated within the  science and
AND
by government workers trying to mitigate GHG  emissions and prepare for climate impacts.
 But, even as evidence that "science ~is~ a socially embedded
AND
the estimation of possible sea level rise provided in a regional  scientific report:
"If you want a rough guide to how bad it ~sea level rise~ could really be over the next 100  years, here it is. At one point she ~a coastal engineer~ said, ’You’re frustrating me. Why  don’t you just tell me the answer?’ You know better than that. You’re not a politician. So  that’s an example of how we were asked."

This statement suggests that the role of scientists should end at the door of the  decision-maker. Even though the practices of resource managers and city workers  legitimate and reinforce the importance of science, scientists cannot (and should not) act  as policy advisors. The presentation of science and policy as autonomous spheres of  practice, even though they are widely understood and accepted as intimately intertwined,  is the heart of the "science effect."
 The importance of this phenomenon is twofold. First, the nature of the
AND
This extended quote from a regional research scientist in  Seattle captures this sentiment:                                                                                   
"I try to be very clear about the fact that we cannot predict the
AND
our  future,’ And that’s just the way you have to be."
Importantly, I do not wish to claim that this is an inappropriate relationship.  Indeed, good environmental policies are based on sound scientific information. Rather,  the point here is that the "science effect" necessities a careful distinction between what is  scientific fact and what is the perception of politicians. Scientists, it seems, walk the line  of science and policy with great caution.
Second, because of the need for objective and reliable scientific basis in climate  policy, only those that produce or utilize this type of information are relevant
for political  practice. The City must go to great lengths to justify their environmental
AND
of action, the causes and  consequences of which can be independently verified.  
Importantly, the three framings of science in Seattle presented here have forged a  progressive
AND
effect" can often suggest that those scientists are no longer  truly objective.
 Recently, some organizations have begun to integrate science and policy more  aggressively.
AND
arrangements of their engagements, however, is one of separation and  independence.
 Perhaps, the example provided by the City of Seattle and regional climate  scientists
AND
experiences to scientific inquiry, are incorporated into the making of climate policy.  
 

Creating a global ethical commitment to future generations is the ONLY way to appreciate the moral scope of climate change – government policy action must be the primary moral focus to create change and unify support

Callicott 11 – (Oct. 2011, J. Baird, University Distinguished Research Professor and a member of the Department of Philosophy and Religion Studies and the Institute of Applied Sciences at the University of North Texas, "The Temporal and Spatial Scales of Global Climate Change and the Limits of Individualistic and Rationalistic Ethics," Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement, Volume 69, October 2011, pp 101-116, cambridge journals)

The temporal scale of this proposed moral ontology – moral considerability for human civilization per
AND
lies in scaling up the moral agent as well as the moral patient.
The identity of that moral agent is no mystery: the world’s several governments acting
AND
to identify the effective moral agent for an ethics of global climate change.
Nor do I mean to reject altogether out of hand the efficacy of voluntary individual
AND
, is considered to be quite wrong and irresponsible as well as illegal.
Unfortunately, there is a limit to this contagious effect. Environmentalism has created a
AND
one dimension of a complex political struggle sometimescharacterized as ’the culture war’.
I now conclude. This essay has not been about practical ethics, but about
AND
be effective in mitigating global climate change, they must act in concert.
 

Individual focus destroys progressive climate politics and forcloses technological solutions to the energy crisis – our primary focus should be rapid development of clean energy technologies

Karlsson 12 – (Nov. 2012, Rasmus, PhD, lecturer at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, South Korea, "Individual Guilt or Collective Progressive Action? Challenging the Strategic Potential of Environmental Citizenship Theory," Environmental Values 21 (2012): 459–474, ingenta)

In terms of its performative content, environmental citizenship theory tends to overlook the fundamental
AND
crisis but also to build public support for radical investments in breakthrough technologies.
Recent paleoclimatological evidence suggests that in order to avoid reaching the tipping level for catastrophic
AND
2008) can we expect them to be implemented on a sufficient scale.
By individualising the site of political change, we risk losing the collective force necessary
AND
and radical investments to meet the challenges of environmental change (Lomborg 2010).

Climate change should be addressed through consequentialism – scientifically proven and most politically effective

Grasso 12 – (10/12, Marco, Senior Lecturer (Tenured Assistant Professor) in Economic and Political Geography Department of Sociology and Social Research, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, "Climate ethics: with a little help from moral cognitive neuroscience," Environmental Politics, taylor and francis)

Ultimately, in this article, I simply assume the fundamental, and less controversial
AND
deontological arguments is, therefore, far beyond the scope of the article.
What implication does the dual-process theory have for climate ethics? To put
AND
with human morality, and perhaps because of its possibly greater political feasibility.

Tournament: Greenhill Round-Robin | Round: 7 | Opponent: Westminster HL | Judge: Paul Johnson, Ryan Wash
Perm do both – local efforts fail without sufficient federal investment
Gerber 9 (James Gerber, Ph.D., Director, Center for Latin American Studies, and Professor of Economics at San Diego State University, “Developing the U.S.-Mexico Border Region for a Prosperous and Secure Relationship: Human and Physical Infrastructure Along the U.S. Border with Mexico,” James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice Univeristy, March 27, 2009, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/files/documents/u.s.-mexico-border-project-binational-research-papers/LAI-pub-BorderSecGerber-032709.pdf)

One of the … equally serious way.
CP undercuts coordination and exacerbates congestion
Lee and Wilson 12 (Erik Lee, serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University AND Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars — Mexico Institute, June 2012, “The State of Trade, Competitiveness and Economic Well-being in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region”, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/State_of_Border_Trade_Economy.pdf | AK)

Managing the U.S.-Mexico … need regional coordination.
State action fails without federal management
Ayón et al 9 (David R. Ayón, Senior Research Associate, Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University; Christopher Bronk, Ph.d., Fellow in Society, Technology and Public Policy, Baker Institute at Rice University; Tony Payan, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Political Science, UT El Paso; Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. Ph.D., JP Morgan Chase Professor of Economics, UT El Paso; Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda, Director for Research and Graduate Studies and Professor of Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juarez; Rodolfo Cruz Pineiro, Ph.D., Professor and Researcher, Department of Population Studies, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte; Jorge Eduardo Mendoza, Ph.D., Researcher, Economic Studies Department, El Colegio de la Frontera Norte; Joan Neuhaus Schaan, Fellow in Homeland Security and Terrorism, Baker Institute; David A. Shirk, Ph. D., Director, Trans-Border Institute, and Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, USan Diego; L. Vargas; J. Carrillo, “Developing the U.S.-Mexico Border Region for a Prosperous and Secure Relationship,” Baker Institute Policy Report, 38, April 2009, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/LAI-pub-BorderSecPREnglish-041509.pdf)

The region along … by national governments.
Federal action is key
Peschard-Sverdrup 4 (Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, Director, Mexico Project at CSIS, the U.S.-Mexico Binational Council is a high-level entity composed of distinguished citizens from both nations who share a commitment to fostering the U.S.-Mexico relationship. “U.S.-Mexico Border Security and the Evolving Security Relationship,” Report of the U.S.-Mexico Binational Council at CSIS, April 2004, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/0404_bordersecurity.pdf)

Continue to update, … border infrastructure projects.

Tournament: Greenhill | Round: 1 | Opponent: Blake NW | Judge: Travis Henderson

Relations key to solve regional stability

Baeza and Langevin ’9 ~Gonzalo Baeza and Mark Langevin, Ph.D, "The Convergence We Need?" March 31, 2009, http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2009/0103/comm/baezalangevin_convergence.html-http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2009/0103/comm/baezalangevin_convergence.html~~

Aside from the structure of consultations and coordination, all the documents under review advocate
AND
drugs and violence in the region, and pushing forward economic development initiatives.

Latin American instability goes global — draws in great powers.

Rochin 94 — James Rochin, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College (1994, Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin America, pp. 130-131)

While there were economic motivations for Canadian policy in Central America, security considerations were
AND
, such as Contadora, as will be discussed in the next chapter.

Tournament: NDCA | Round: 1 | Opponent: MBA | Judge: 

adv 1

Advantage One: Manufacturing—

Border infrastructure is failing as congestion increases—new infrastructure investments boost manufacturing and prevent decline

Wilson and Lee 12 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011) and has coauthored op-ed columns for the Wall Street Journal and Dallas Morning News. Chris previously served as a Mexico Analyst for the U.S. Military and as a researcher for Dr. Robert Pastor at American University’s Center for North American Studies. In Mexico, he worked with the international trade consultancy IQOM, Inteligencia Comercial, and with American students studying regional political and social issues. Before joining the Wilson Center as Associate, Chris worked as a consultant with the Mexico Institute on U.S.-Mexico economic relations. He completed his M.A. in International Affairs at American University, focusing on U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-Mexico relations, and Erik Lee, serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University. He is responsible for a legislative research, policy advising and coordination with numerous partners in the United States, Mexico and Canada on various collaborative initiatives related to trade, security and sustainability. He is the co-author of "Realizing the Full Value of our Crossborder Trade with Mexico" and "Realizing the Value of Tourism from Mexico to the United States" (2012). He serves on the international advisory board for the journal Latin American Policy. Mr. Lee was previously program officer for the Merage Foundation for the American Dream, assistant director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego and assistant managing director at the Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy at San Diego State University. He has consulted for philanthropic and educational organizations and has also served as a resource for a large number of local, national and international media outlets. Before completing his master’s degree in Latin American Studies at UCSD in 2000, Mr. Lee worked as a university administrator and instructor in Hermosillo, Sonora. The two are coauthors of the trade and competitiveness chapter in the forthcoming "State of the Border Report," (Christopher E. Wilson, Erik Lee, Site Selection, July 2012, "Whole Nations Waiting," http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm, Accessed 09-09-2013)

Commerce between the United States and Mexico is one of the great — yet underappreciated
AND
customs harmonization, and public-private partnerships — that have enormous potential.

Two internal links—

First, exports—they’re key to manufacturing, but border efficiency is key

Marczak et al. 13 — Jason Marczak, Americas Society/Council of the Americas Director of Policy, Andreina Seijas, AS/COA Policy Associate, and Leani Garcia ("Get the Facts: Five Reasons Why the U.S.-Mexico Border Is Critical to the Economy", 07-30-2013, Available Online at: http://www.as-coa.org/articles/get-facts-five-reasons-why-us-mexico-border-critical-economy, Accessed 04-12-2014)

The U.S.-Mexico border offers unparalleled economic opportunities for Americans who live
AND
labor force made up of 3.1 million people. ~18~

Second, near-shoring—the plan cements a manufacturing renaissance and solves production shut-downs

Wilson 13 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011), and an editor and author of the Institute’s forthcoming State of the Border Report (Christopher E. Wilson, Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, January 2013, "A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region," New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf, Accessed 09-14-2013)

At a time when Mexico is poised to experience robust economic growth, a manufacturing
AND
potential to shut down production until the needed parts arrive at their destination.

Decline of U.S. manufacturing causes Chinese military buildup—the impact is Taiwan and South China Sea escalation

Mosher 6 — Stephen Mosher, President and Director of the Population Research Institute,
AND
.S. Foreign Policy," 02-14-2006, Lexis) 

The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
AND
desire to reduce U.S. influence and presence in the region.

Taiwan conflict is uniquely likely now—collapsing Taiwanese stability and western inaction will trigger Chinese invasion

Cole 3-14 — J. Michael Cole, is a Taipei-based journalist, a Senior Fellow at the China Policy Institute University of Nottingham, a graduate in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada and a former analyst at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service ("Taiwan Watching Crimea with Nervous Eye Toward Beijing", 03-14-2014, Available Online at: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/taiwan-watching-crimea-nervous-eye-toward-beijing-10047?page=show, Accessed 04-12-2014)

Days ahead of a referendum that could result in the loss of the southern territory
AND
in East Asia, where the stakes could be much, much higher.

Escalates to nuclear war and extinction

Lowther 13 — William Lowther, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (William Lowther, 03-16-2013, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
AND
arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

SCS tensions are rising—makes U.S.-China conflict and miscalc likely

Zenko 3-24-14 (Micah, Douglas Dillon Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, "How to Avoid a Naval War With China," Foreign Policy, 3-24, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/24/how_ to_avoid_a_naval_war_with_china)

War between the United States and China is not preordained. But tensions are high
AND
other U.S.-China diplomatic, military, and economic issues.

Territorial disputes escalate to nuclear conflict

Chakraborty 10 (Tuhin Subhro Chakraborty, Research Associate at Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies (RGICS), his primary area of work is centered on East Asia and International Relations. His recent work includes finding an alternative to the existing security dilemma in East Asia and the Pacific and Geo Political implications of the ’Rise of China’. Prior to joining RGICS, he was associated with the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, United Service Institution of India (USI) where he examined the role of India in securing Asia Pacific. He has coordinated conferences and workshops on United Nation Peacekeeping Visions and on China’s Quest for Global Dominance. He has written commentaries on issues relating to ASEAN, Asia Pacific Security Dilemma and US China relations. He also contributed in carrying out simulation exercise on the ’Afghanistan Scenario’ for the Foreign Service Institute (FSI). Tuhin interned at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Sapru House, wherein he worked on the Rise of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military budget and its impact on India. He graduated from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi and thereafter he undertook his masters in East Asian Studies from University of Delhi. His areas of interest include China, India-Japan bilateral relations, ASEAN, Asia Pacific security dynamics and Nuclear Issues, The United States Service Institution of India, 2010, "The Initiation 26 Outlook of ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus Eight", http://www.usiofindia.org/Article/?pub=Strategic20Perspective26pubno=2026ano=739)

The first ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Eight (China, India, Japan,
AND
a major conflict which has the possibility of turning into a nuclear conflict.

Border manufacturing is key to the aerospace industry

Guidi 11 — was the Fronteras reporter at KPBS, covering immigration, border issues and culture. She’s a journalist and producer with experience working in radio, print, and multimedia, and has reported from the Caribbean, South and Central America, as well as the U.S.-Mexico border region. She’s a recipient of Johns Hopkins University’s International Reporting Project (IRP) Fellowship, which took her to Haiti for a project about development aid and human rights in 2008. That year, she was also a finalist for the Livingston Award for International Reporting, given to U.S. journalists under 35 years of age. Previously, she did reporting and production work for the BBC public radio news program, The World. Her stories focused on Latin American politics, human rights, rural communities, immigration, popular culture and music. After earning a Master’s degree in journalism from U.C. Berkeley in 2002, she worked for independent radio producers The Kitchen Sisters. In 2003, she moved to Austin, TX, where she did production and reporting work for NPR’s weekly show, Latino USA. Ruxandra has also produced features and documentaries for the BBC World Service in Spanish, National Public Radio, The Walrus Magazine, Guernica Magazine, Virginia Quarterly Review, World Vision Report, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Dispatches and Marketplace radio programs (Ruxandra Guidi, Fronteras Desk, 09-28-2011, "Border Business: Aerospace As A Binational Industry," http://www.fronterasdesk.org/news/2011/sep/28/business-mexico-aerospace-industry-maquiladora, Accessed 09-18-2013)

With its high-profile speakers and 3D simulation stations, the second annual Baja
AND
aerospace companies with operations in the Mexican border state grew by 50 percent.

That deters China and prevents escalation

Dunlap 6 — Charles, Major General, Deputy Judge Advocate of the Air Force, National War College graduate with over 30 years of Armed Forces experience (Charles Dunlap Jr., Armed Forces Journal, "America’s Asymmetric Advantage," http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013)

America’s pre-eminence in air power is also the best hope we have to
AND
), the very existence of the U.S. is at risk.

Deterrence theory is true and an empirically verifiable solution to war

Moore 4 — Director at the Center for Security Law at the University of Virginia, 7-Time Presidential Appointee and Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law (John Norton Moore, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, pp. 27-31)

As so broadly conceived, there is strong evidence that deterrence, that is,
AND
totality of external factors, that is, deterrence, that become crucial.

adv 2

Advantage Two: Warming—

Global warming is real and anthropogenic

Prothero 12 (Donald Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College, Lecturer in Geobiology at CalTech, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," 3/1/12, EBSCO)

How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
AND
change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

Runaway warming causes extinction—positive feedbacks will push us past the tipping point

Morgan 9 (Dennis Ray Morgan, Professor of Current Affairs at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, "World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race," December 2009 Science Direct)

As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear
AND
civilization has been destroyed, and the question concerning human extinction becomes moot.

It’s not too late—emissions reductions can avoid and delay catastrophic impacts

Chestney 13 — Nina, senior environmental correspondent, 01-13-2013, "Climate Change Study: Emissions Limits Could Avoid Damage By Two-Thirds," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/13/climate-change-study-emissions-limits_n_2467995.html, AM

The world could avoid much of the damaging effects of climate change this century if
AND
, transport systems and agriculture more resilient to climate change," Arnell said.

Two internal links—

First, technical assistance—that solves reduction and adaptation

BECC 11 — Border Environment Cooperation Commission (Border Environment Cooperation Commission, November 2011, "Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region", http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC20WP2020Nov20201120index.pdf, Accessed 08-29-2013)

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION This white paper describes the current deficit in the U.
AND
, and the funds will need a highly capacitated and experienced program manager. 

Second, modeling—the plan persuades developing economies to transition

Selee 12 — Vice President for Programs and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute, and Wilson, associate with the
Mexico Institute (Andrew and Christopher, November, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, "A New Agenda With Mexico," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/a_new_agenda_with_mexico.pdf)

Over the past few years, the U.S. and Mexican governments have
AND
the developed and developing worlds, and between North America and Latin America. 

That’s key to solve climate change—only U.S. investment solves

Passell 12 (Peter Passell, the Economics Editor of Democracy Lab, is a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, 5/23/12, "Two Worlds, One Climate," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/05/23/two_worlds_one_climate?page=full)

Climate change, we are often told, is everyone’s problem. And without a
AND
with the army you’ve got, not the one you’d like to have.

solvency

The plan solves infrastructure development by expanding the NADBank mandate—-this ensures accountability, private investment, and Mexico says yes

Rodriguez 9 — Raul Rodriguez, serves as the Chairman of the Board of Advisors of the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University. He is also the Benson Chair in Banking and Finance and Distinguished Professor at the HEB School of Business and Administration at the University of the Incarnate Word in San Antonio, Texas and the President of RMI, an investment and trade consulting firm in Mexico. He served as CEO and Managing Director of the North American Development Bank (NADBank) until October 2005. Prior to joining the NADBank, he was Executive Director of the Mexican Foreign Trade Bank; the Bank’s Director for Asia; Mexico’s Trade Commissioner in Canada during the NAFTA negotiation; and Secretary of Economic Development for the Mexican border State of Tamaulipas. Mr. Rodriguez participates actively in community affairs at home in San Antonio, Texas, as Chairman of the World Affairs Council; Chairman Elect of The Free Trade Alliance; Mayoral appointee to the Board of Directors of the Port Authority of San Antonio; Chairman Elect and Vice President of the San Antonio - Mexico Friendship Council, among others. He is also a founding member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Advisory Council of the Harte Research Institute at Texas A26M University, the North American Forum, the U.S. - Mexico Futures Forum and the Border Trade Advisory Committee of the Texas Transportation Commission. He participated in the Foreign Affairs task force with President Calderon’s transition team in Mexico in October and November 2006 (Raul Rodriguez, The Wilson Center Mexico Institute and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, June 2009, "The Future of the North American Development Bank", http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/RODRIGUEZ20NADBANK.pdf, Accessed 08-21-2013)

Many agencies and programs have a bearing on border issues, but the region still lacks an effective and cohesive institutional base, particularly on a bilateral scale. Prevailing political thinking in Washington—and to a certain extent in Mexico City—and the current economic situation are not conducive to creating supranational structures; so while Europe bursts with a cumbersome and bloated institutional life, North America remains anemic by comparison.
Its mere existence and capacity for reform given its small size and overhead make NADB
AND
areas where it can be a vital funding and capacity-building instrument.
Mexico has sought a broader mandate for NADB since 2000. President Felipe Calderón has
AND
VI National Convention, American Chamber of Commerce; February 27, 2007).
Some progress has been made along Pres. Calderon’s line of thinking. In 2008
AND
part of their economic stimulus initiatives that will render synergies if closely coordinated.
A drawn-out debate has taken place among environmentalists along the border who would
AND
sectors would enhance the Bank’s ability to respond to projects lacking credit capacity.
Below are ten of the actions and policy initiatives that have been debated in recent years with regard to achieving an expanded and more effective role for NADB:
A. Expand the mandate to include additional infrastructure sectors:
The Bank requires a more flexible mandate that takes into account a broader set of criteria that do not focus excessively on quantifiable environmental benefits. Currently the Board sets very high environmental benefit thresholds on projects. Factors relating to the broader goals of infrastructure improvement and economic development should be considered in addition to environmental criteria in a balanced way.
Some sectors are more amenable than others for bilateral cooperation. Water—and environmental
AND
, coordination and harmonization issues should continue to be part of NADB’s focus.
The Bank should become more fully engaged with the development and expansion of ports of entry and border crossings. In the context of security imperatives, investments aimed at facilitating the construction and improvement of crossings through public-private partnerships might be the most important contribution to the border’s development today.
The need for legislation to authorize further expansion into other infrastructure sectors has been debated. Some suggest it is simply an issue for the governments to resolve. However, given the restrictive interpretations of the charter, if a favorable legislative climate develops its amendment would be advisable if broad mandate expansion were to be considered.
A lingering question is how much of a BECC certification process should be applied to projects in new sectors. Public and stakeholder participation in project development, approval and support has been a fundamental contribution of BECC over the years, but there is a concern—particularly among private sector investors—that it delays the funding process unduly. Expedited NADB lending approval processes will also be critical in order to foster more private sector participation.
As new sectors are addressed, it will be crucial to find even more creative ways to mitigate risks, foster long-term financing in the local currency, and leverage funds from different sources. A key role for the NADB will be to help enhance project conditions and provide guarantees in order to link with private financial markets where affordable long-term funds in a multi-year programming context might be available.  

The plan solves renewables development—-financing and technical assistance are key

Wood 10 — Duncan Wood, is the Director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. For 17 years, Dr. Wood was a professor and the director of the International Relations Program at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) in Mexico City. He also held the role of researcher at the Centro de Derecho Económico Internacional at ITAM. He is a member of the Mexican National Research System, a member of the editorial board of Foreign Affairs Latinoamerica and has been an editorial advisor to Reforma newspaper. In 2007, he was a non?resident Fulbright Fellow. Between 2007 and 2009, he was technical secretary of the Red Mexicana de Energia, a group of experts in the area of energy policy in Mexico. He has been a Senior Associate with the Simon Chair and the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. His research focuses on Mexican energy policy, including renewable energy, and North American relations. He studied in the UK and Canada, receiving his PhD in Political Studies from Queen’s University, Canada in 1996 (Duncan Wood, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Mexico Institute, May 2010, "Environment, Development and Growth: U.S.-Mexico Cooperation in Renewable Energies", http://www.statealliancepartnership.org/resources_files/USMexico_Cooperation_Renewable_Energies.pdf, Accessed 08-22-2013)

Funding RE at the border – the role of the NADBANK
The North American Development Bank’s (NADBank) impact on questions of environmental management on
AND
studies relating to a range of clean energy projects throughout the border region.
Two recent projects stand out. In the first, a biodiesel project in El
AND
along the border offers the prospect of large scale production of clean biodiesel.
The second recent project that deserves attention here concerns the capture and processing of methane
AND
anaerobic digester to mix with irrigation water to be used in local farms.
Despite the growth in clean energy projects and the potential for meaningful investments in all
AND
, but bring jobs, increase profits, and satisfy a growing demand.
Even more worrying is the fact that the NADBank’s grants are in decline because of
AND
development and employment and economic opportunities, suggests that things are turning around.
Other institutions that have become important in the area of RE include the Border Governors Conference (BGC), which in 2002 created an energy committee and immediately seized on the potential for renewable energy in the border states. Its 2009 meeting in Monterrey, NL, had a significant emphasis on renewable energy at the border. The energy work table, for example, committed itself to three broad goals in the area:
• identify and promote a United States?Mexico border region program for renewable energy by exchanging information on policies and financial incentives;
• work with federal bi?national organizations, the Border Environment Cooperation Commission, the North American Development Bank and international organizations to facilitate project development;
• identify financial opportunities for at least one renewable energy project before 2010.
More importantly in terms of the long term vision of the BGC was the presentation
AND
improvement and prosperity, and to the potential for cross border RE flows.
The Plan emphasized the further development of border renewable energy projects, and laid out a number of policy proposals (see table below), including the creation of a "geo?referenced database of renewable energy resources" as a necessary step on the road to fully developing RE along the border. But, perhaps the most important contribution of the Plan was to redefine the scope of the border region:
The Plan contains an innovation regarding space: Rather than limiting itself to the area
AND
billion, equivalent to third?largest national economy in the world.59
This redefinition of the border region is of vital importance for expanding renewable energy activities
AND
projects that could benefit from assistance from the NADBank and from the BGC.

Tournament: NDCA | Round: 3 | Opponent: Berkely Prep | Judge:
The United States federal government should expand the mandate of the North American Development Bank and substantially increase its North American Development Bank infrastructure investment towards Mexico

Tournament: TOC | Round: 4 | Opponent: Westminster HH | Judge: Sam Shore
The United States federal government should expand the mandate of the North American Development Bank and substantially increase its investment in North American Development Bank economic assistance towards Mexico

Tournament: NDCA | Round: Doubles | Opponent: Westminster FM | Judge: Sam Shore, Kenny McCaffrey, Christina Tallungan
The United States federal government should substantially increase its North American Development Bank environmental infrastructure investment towards Mexico.

Tournament: TOC | Round: 1 | Opponent: Pace HP | Judge: J Heidt

1AC

plan text

The United States federal government should expand the mandate of the North American Development Bank and substantially increase its North American Development Bank infrastructure investment towards Mexico

adv 1

Advantage One: Manufacturing—

Border infrastructure is failing as congestion increases—new infrastructure investments boost manufacturing and prevent decline

Wilson and Lee 12 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011) and has coauthored op-ed columns for the Wall Street Journal and Dallas Morning News. Chris previously served as a Mexico Analyst for the U.S. Military and as a researcher for Dr. Robert Pastor at American University’s Center for North American Studies. In Mexico, he worked with the international trade consultancy IQOM, Inteligencia Comercial, and with American students studying regional political and social issues. Before joining the Wilson Center as Associate, Chris worked as a consultant with the Mexico Institute on U.S.-Mexico economic relations. He completed his M.A. in International Affairs at American University, focusing on U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-Mexico relations, and Erik Lee, serves as Associate Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies (NACTS) at Arizona State University. He is responsible for a legislative research, policy advising and coordination with numerous partners in the United States, Mexico and Canada on various collaborative initiatives related to trade, security and sustainability. He is the co-author of "Realizing the Full Value of our Crossborder Trade with Mexico" and "Realizing the Value of Tourism from Mexico to the United States" (2012). He serves on the international advisory board for the journal Latin American Policy. Mr. Lee was previously program officer for the Merage Foundation for the American Dream, assistant director at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego and assistant managing director at the Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy at San Diego State University. He has consulted for philanthropic and educational organizations and has also served as a resource for a large number of local, national and international media outlets. Before completing his master’s degree in Latin American Studies at UCSD in 2000, Mr. Lee worked as a university administrator and instructor in Hermosillo, Sonora. The two are coauthors of the trade and competitiveness chapter in the forthcoming "State of the Border Report," (Christopher E. Wilson, Erik Lee, Site Selection, July 2012, "Whole Nations Waiting," http://www.siteselection.com/issues/2012/jul/us-mex-border.cfm, Accessed 09-09-2013)

Commerce between the United States and Mexico is one of the great — yet underappreciated
AND
customs harmonization, and public-private partnerships — that have enormous potential.

Two internal links—

First, exports—they’re key to manufacturing, but border efficiency is key

Marczak et al. 13 — Jason Marczak, Americas Society/Council of the Americas Director of Policy, Andreina Seijas, AS/COA Policy Associate, and Leani Garcia ("Get the Facts: Five Reasons Why the U.S.-Mexico Border Is Critical to the Economy", 07-30-2013, Available Online at: http://www.as-coa.org/articles/get-facts-five-reasons-why-us-mexico-border-critical-economy, Accessed 04-12-2014)

The U.S.-Mexico border offers unparalleled economic opportunities for Americans who live
AND
labor force made up of 3.1 million people. ~18~

Second, near-shoring—the plan cements a manufacturing renaissance and solves production shut-downs

Wilson 13 — Christopher E. Wilson, is an Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs. He is the author of Working Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico (Wilson Center, 2011), and an editor and author of the Institute’s forthcoming State of the Border Report (Christopher E. Wilson, Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, January 2013, "A U.S.-Mexico Economic Alliance: Policy Options for a Competitive Region," New Ideas for a New Era: Policy Options for the Next Stage in U.S.-Mexico Relations, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/new_ideas_us_mexico_relations.pdf, Accessed 09-14-2013)

At a time when Mexico is poised to experience robust economic growth, a manufacturing
AND
potential to shut down production until the needed parts arrive at their destination.

Decline of U.S. manufacturing causes Chinese military buildup—the impact is Taiwan and South China Sea escalation

Mosher 6 — Stephen Mosher, President and Director of the Population Research Institute,
AND
.S. Foreign Policy," 02-14-2006, Lexis) 

The ruthless mercantilism practiced by the CCP is thus a form of economic warfare.
AND
desire to reduce U.S. influence and presence in the region.

Taiwan conflict is uniquely likely now—collapsing Taiwanese stability and western inaction will trigger Chinese invasion

Cole 3-14 — J. Michael Cole, is a Taipei-based journalist, a Senior Fellow at the China Policy Institute University of Nottingham, a graduate in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada and a former analyst at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service ("Taiwan Watching Crimea with Nervous Eye Toward Beijing", 03-14-2014, Available Online at: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/taiwan-watching-crimea-nervous-eye-toward-beijing-10047?page=show, Accessed 04-12-2014)

Days ahead of a referendum that could result in the loss of the southern territory
AND
in East Asia, where the stakes could be much, much higher.

Escalates to nuclear war and extinction

Lowther 13 — William Lowther, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (William Lowther, 03-16-2013, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
AND
arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

SCS tensions are rising—makes U.S.-China conflict and miscalc likely

Zenko 3-24-14 (Micah, Douglas Dillon Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, "How to Avoid a Naval War With China," Foreign Policy, 3-24, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/24/how_ to_avoid_a_naval_war_with_china)

War between the United States and China is not preordained. But tensions are high
AND
other U.S.-China diplomatic, military, and economic issues.

Territorial disputes escalate to nuclear conflict

Chakraborty 10 (Tuhin Subhro Chakraborty, Research Associate at Rajiv Gandhi Institute for Contemporary Studies (RGICS), his primary area of work is centered on East Asia and International Relations. His recent work includes finding an alternative to the existing security dilemma in East Asia and the Pacific and Geo Political implications of the ’Rise of China’. Prior to joining RGICS, he was associated with the Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation, United Service Institution of India (USI) where he examined the role of India in securing Asia Pacific. He has coordinated conferences and workshops on United Nation Peacekeeping Visions and on China’s Quest for Global Dominance. He has written commentaries on issues relating to ASEAN, Asia Pacific Security Dilemma and US China relations. He also contributed in carrying out simulation exercise on the ’Afghanistan Scenario’ for the Foreign Service Institute (FSI). Tuhin interned at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Sapru House, wherein he worked on the Rise of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military budget and its impact on India. He graduated from St. Stephen’s College, Delhi and thereafter he undertook his masters in East Asian Studies from University of Delhi. His areas of interest include China, India-Japan bilateral relations, ASEAN, Asia Pacific security dynamics and Nuclear Issues, The United States Service Institution of India, 2010, "The Initiation 26 Outlook of ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus Eight", http://www.usiofindia.org/Article/?pub=Strategic20Perspective26pubno=2026ano=739)

The first ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus Eight (China, India, Japan,
AND
a major conflict which has the possibility of turning into a nuclear conflict.

Border manufacturing is key to the aerospace industry

Guidi 11 — was the Fronteras reporter at KPBS, covering immigration, border issues and culture. She’s a journalist and producer with experience working in radio, print, and multimedia, and has reported from the Caribbean, South and Central America, as well as the U.S.-Mexico border region. She’s a recipient of Johns Hopkins University’s International Reporting Project (IRP) Fellowship, which took her to Haiti for a project about development aid and human rights in 2008. That year, she was also a finalist for the Livingston Award for International Reporting, given to U.S. journalists under 35 years of age. Previously, she did reporting and production work for the BBC public radio news program, The World. Her stories focused on Latin American politics, human rights, rural communities, immigration, popular culture and music. After earning a Master’s degree in journalism from U.C. Berkeley in 2002, she worked for independent radio producers The Kitchen Sisters. In 2003, she moved to Austin, TX, where she did production and reporting work for NPR’s weekly show, Latino USA. Ruxandra has also produced features and documentaries for the BBC World Service in Spanish, National Public Radio, The Walrus Magazine, Guernica Magazine, Virginia Quarterly Review, World Vision Report, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s Dispatches and Marketplace radio programs (Ruxandra Guidi, Fronteras Desk, 09-28-2011, "Border Business: Aerospace As A Binational Industry," http://www.fronterasdesk.org/news/2011/sep/28/business-mexico-aerospace-industry-maquiladora, Accessed 09-18-2013)

With its high-profile speakers and 3D simulation stations, the second annual Baja
AND
aerospace companies with operations in the Mexican border state grew by 50 percent.

That deters China and prevents escalation

Dunlap 6 — Charles, Major General, Deputy Judge Advocate of the Air Force, National War College graduate with over 30 years of Armed Forces experience (Charles Dunlap Jr., Armed Forces Journal, "America’s Asymmetric Advantage," http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2006/09/2009013)

America’s pre-eminence in air power is also the best hope we have to
AND
), the very existence of the U.S. is at risk.

Deterrence theory is true and an empirically verifiable solution to war

Moore 4 — Director at the Center for Security Law at the University of Virginia, 7-Time Presidential Appointee and Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law (John Norton Moore, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, pp. 27-31)

As so broadly conceived, there is strong evidence that deterrence, that is,
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totality of external factors, that is, deterrence, that become crucial.

The plan solves infrastructure development by expanding the NADBank mandate—-this ensures accountability, private investment, and Mexico says yes

Rodriguez 9 — Raul Rodriguez, serves as the Chairman of the Board of Advisors of the North American Center for Transborder Studies at Arizona State University. He is also the Benson Chair in Banking and Finance and Distinguished Professor at the HEB School of Business and Administration at the University of the Incarnate Word in San Antonio, Texas and the President of RMI, an investment and trade consulting firm in Mexico. He served as CEO and Managing Director of the North American Development Bank (NADBank) until October 2005. Prior to joining the NADBank, he was Executive Director of the Mexican Foreign Trade Bank; the Bank’s Director for Asia; Mexico’s Trade Commissioner in Canada during the NAFTA negotiation; and Secretary of Economic Development for the Mexican border State of Tamaulipas. Mr. Rodriguez participates actively in community affairs at home in San Antonio, Texas, as Chairman of the World Affairs Council; Chairman Elect of The Free Trade Alliance; Mayoral appointee to the Board of Directors of the Port Authority of San Antonio; Chairman Elect and Vice President of the San Antonio - Mexico Friendship Council, among others. He is also a founding member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Advisory Council of the Harte Research Institute at Texas A26M University, the North American Forum, the U.S. - Mexico Futures Forum and the Border Trade Advisory Committee of the Texas Transportation Commission. He participated in the Foreign Affairs task force with President Calderon’s transition team in Mexico in October and November 2006 (Raul Rodriguez, The Wilson Center Mexico Institute and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, June 2009, "The Future of the North American Development Bank", http://wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/RODRIGUEZ20NADBANK.pdf, Accessed 08-21-2013)

Many agencies and programs have a bearing on border issues, but the region still lacks an effective and cohesive institutional base, particularly on a bilateral scale. Prevailing political thinking in Washington—and to a certain extent in Mexico City—and the current economic situation are not conducive to creating supranational structures; so while Europe bursts with a cumbersome and bloated institutional life, North America remains anemic by comparison.
Its mere existence and capacity for reform given its small size and overhead make NADB
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areas where it can be a vital funding and capacity-building instrument.
Mexico has sought a broader mandate for NADB since 2000. President Felipe Calderón has
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VI National Convention, American Chamber of Commerce; February 27, 2007).
Some progress has been made along Pres. Calderon’s line of thinking. In 2008
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part of their economic stimulus initiatives that will render synergies if closely coordinated.
A drawn-out debate has taken place among environmentalists along the border who would
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sectors would enhance the Bank’s ability to respond to projects lacking credit capacity.
Below are ten of the actions and policy initiatives that have been debated in recent years with regard to achieving an expanded and more effective role for NADB:
A. Expand the mandate to include additional infrastructure sectors:
The Bank requires a more flexible mandate that takes into account a broader set of criteria that do not focus excessively on quantifiable environmental benefits. Currently the Board sets very high environmental benefit thresholds on projects. Factors relating to the broader goals of infrastructure improvement and economic development should be considered in addition to environmental criteria in a balanced way.
Some sectors are more amenable than others for bilateral cooperation. Water—and environmental
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, coordination and harmonization issues should continue to be part of NADB’s focus.
The Bank should become more fully engaged with the development and expansion of ports of entry and border crossings. In the context of security imperatives, investments aimed at facilitating the construction and improvement of crossings through public-private partnerships might be the most important contribution to the border’s development today.
The need for legislation to authorize further expansion into other infrastructure sectors has been debated. Some suggest it is simply an issue for the governments to resolve. However, given the restrictive interpretations of the charter, if a favorable legislative climate develops its amendment would be advisable if broad mandate expansion were to be considered.
A lingering question is how much of a BECC certification process should be applied to projects in new sectors. Public and stakeholder participation in project development, approval and support has been a fundamental contribution of BECC over the years, but there is a concern—particularly among private sector investors—that it delays the funding process unduly. Expedited NADB lending approval processes will also be critical in order to foster more private sector participation.
As new sectors are addressed, it will be crucial to find even more creative ways to mitigate risks, foster long-term financing in the local currency, and leverage funds from different sources. A key role for the NADB will be to help enhance project conditions and provide guarantees in order to link with private financial markets where affordable long-term funds in a multi-year programming context might be available.  

new

CONTENTION _: MDBs

Multilateral Development Banks are threatened now

Fernando Prada 12, associate researcher at FORO Nacional Internacional, "World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank, and Subregional Development Banks in Latin America: Dynamics of a System of Multilateral Development Banks", September, http://www.adbi.org/files/2012.09.05.wp380.dynamics.system.multilateral.dev.banks.pdf
Harmonizing approaches and coordinating areas of support could increase the capacities of ¶ public officers
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as regional development, support to the private sector, and countercyclical role.

That causes Afghan instability, Haiti refugee outflow and South Sudan collapse

Marisa Lago 11, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, September 21, "The Impact of the World Bank and Multilateral Development Banks on National Security," http://financialservices.house.gov/UploadedFiles/091511lago.pdf
Under our leadership, the MDBs are supporting stability operations in weak states like Afghanistan
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confront us today, and preventing and deterring threats that may emerge tomorrow.

Now’s key —- increased Afghan instability will cause great power intervention

Ali Imran 3-2, Washington-based journalist, Pakistan Times, "The high cost of Afghan uncertainty", http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2014/03/02/comment/the-high-cost-of-afghan-uncertainty/
Afghanistan is yet again on the edge of uncertainty and its future fragile as ever
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the edgy countries into a proxy-led or even direct broader conflict.¶ 

US commitment to NADBank is key to the success of other MDBs—-failure spills over

MIS 11 Moody’s Investor Services, "Credit Analysis: North American Development Bank", http://www.nadbank.org/pdfs/aboutUs/Moodys20-20NADB20Sept2011.pdf
Member commitment to support is an even stronger consideration in the case of NADB,
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, something Moody’s believes the U.S. would want to avoid. 

Causes nuclear war

Audrey Kurth Cronin 13, Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University and author of How Terrorism Ends and Great Power Politics and the Struggle over Austria. Thinking Long on Afghanistan: Could it be Neutralized? Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Washington Quarterly • 36:1, pp. 55-72, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2013.751650
With ISAF withdrawal inevitable, a sea change is already underway: the question is
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except this time the outcome could be not just terrorism but nuclear war.

A wave of Haitian refugees creates cover for terrorists entering the US

PDN 4 (Pacific Daily News, 4/10)
While Haiti has no inherent strategic value to the United States, it presents a nuisance factor that could compromise national security. So close to Florida, unrest in Haiti spawns "boat people" refugees who bring socioeconomic problems that dwarf Guam’s compact-impact issues. Uncontrolled refugee flows also provide cover for terrorist groups wishing to infiltrate operatives.

That forces Coast Guard draw in, overstretching resources causing mission tradeoff

John Ashcroft 3, Former US Attorney General, 4/17/03, In re D-J-, Respondent, 23 I26N Dec. 572 (A.G. 2003)
The INS submissions also outline an additional national security implication of encouraging future mass migrations
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S. at 534; Barbour, 491 F.2d at 578.

An effective Coast Guard is key to preventing WMD attacks

Christopher Lehman 1, special assistant for national security affairs to President Reagan, and Scott Truver, group vice president of the Anteon Corp. The Washington Times November 13
For more than 200 years, the U. S. Coast Guard - the
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could carry chemical or biological "devices," or even a nuclear weapon.

Shipping is the most likely scenario for terrorism

Norman Friedman 2, United States Naval Institute, Proceedings; Annapolis; Aug; Proquest
With many of its craft quite elderly, the Coast Guard has been planning Deepwater
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Laden himself is said to control about 20 merchant ships through subsidiary corporations.

Terrorism causes nuclear war

Martin E. Hellman 8, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, "Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" SPRING, THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option. 

South Sudan goes regional—-every country has key interests at stake

Gaaki Kigambo 2-28, Ugandan journalist and a graduate of Carleton University. He is currently a special correspondent for The East African, Regional Tensions Complicate South Sudan’s Crisis, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13597/regional-tensions-complicate-south-sudan-s-crisis
The deadly conflict in South Sudan, itself the culmination of a long-running
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of the conflict looms, further complicating any efforts to resolve the crisis.

Nuclear war

Caroline Glick 7, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, Senior Fellow for Middle East Affairs of the Center for Security Policy, "Condi’s African holiday", December 11, http://www.rightsidenews.com/20071211309/editorial/us-opinion-and-editorial/our-world-condis-african-holiday.html
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars, which rage continuously, can easily escalate into big wars. Local conflicts have regional and global aspects. All of the conflicts in this tinderbox, which controls shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean into the Red Sea, can potentially give rise to regional, and indeed global conflagrations between competing regional actors and global powers. 

High risk of escalation—-US engagement is key

Walter Russell Mead 13, foreign affairs professor at Bard College, Peace In The Congo? Why The World Should Care, December 15, http://www.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/12/15/peace-in-the-congo-why-the-world-should-care/
These wars continue today; the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the war in Syria
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are willing to provide the security guarantees and deterrents that prevent mass mayhem.

2AC

AT: No Terrorism

Yes terrorism—-most qualified evidence

Sara Carter 14, senior editor at The Blaze, Intel Chief Has a Warning About Al Qaeda Splinter Groups, January 30, http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/01/30/intel-chief-has-a-warning-about-al-qaeda-splinter-groups/
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper warned Wednesday that Al Qaeda is still as dangerous
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particular risk in parts of South Asia, the Middle East and Africa."

china manufacturing

No CCP collapse—-resilience, meritocracy, and legitimacy check—-and they’ll adapt, not lash-out, if threatened

Li 13 Eric X. Li is a Henry Crown Fellow at the Aspen Institute. He is also a venture capitalist in Shanghai who serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is vice chairman of its publishing arm CEIBS Publishing Group. "The Life of the Party," Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb, 92.1, EBSCO
In November 2012, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held its 18th National
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the CCP is heavily meritocratic and promotes those with proven experience and capabilities.

Manufacturing isn’t key to China – they’re transitioning to a service industry now

Asia Sentinel 4/16/13 ("China Switches to a Service Economy" http://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/china-switches-to-a-service-economy/)

For the first time ever, if China’s official figures are to be believed,
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areas, regions of the country, and between economic and social development.

The plan incentivizes Chinese economic reform – that’s the only way to stave off a guaranteed catastrophic collapse

Schuman 13
(Michael April 28, 2013, Time: Business and Money. "The Real Reason to Worry About China" http://business.time.com/2013/04/28/the-real-reason-to-worry-about-china/, ~Accessed 7/8/13~, JB).

There is also consensus on the solution. Economists have been warning for years that
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China into a financial crisis. Now that’s really something to worry about.

Overheating – Chinese manufacturing causes overproduction which collapses the Chinese economy and global competitiveness

Brendenberg 7/16/13 (Al, "China’s Restructuring Calls for Well-Honed U.S. Manufacturing Strategies"

Writing for Reuters, international reporter David Stanway predicts that China’s plans to "slim
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cautioned, "There are always two sides to these China restructuring plans."

China econ’s resilient—-government control checks

Katsenelson 9 – Vitaliy N., director of research at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo., and the author of Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets, 7/23/09, "The China Bubble’s Coming — But Not the One You Think", Foreign Policy,  http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/07/23/the_china_bubbles_coming_but_not_the_one_you_think
Despite everything, the Chinese economy has shown incredible resilience recently. Although its biggest
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and fast. That’s why the country is producing such robust economic numbers.

T - must be qpq

Economic engagement is not a QPQ

Celik 11 ~Arda Can Çelik, graduate M.A in political science and international relations at Uppsala University Sweden, "Economic sanctions and engagement policies," http://www.grin.com/en/e-book/175204/economic-sanctions-and-engagement-policies~~
Economic engagement policies are strategic integration behaviour which involves with the target state. Engagement
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believes in that economic linkages have political transformation potential.(Kroll,1993)

security

No risk of endless warfare

Gray 7—Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies and Professor of International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Reading, graduate of the Universities of Manchester and Oxford, Founder and Senior Associate to the National Institute for Public Policy, formerly with the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Hudson Institute (Colin, July, "The Implications of Preemptive and Preventive War Doctrines: A Reconsideration", http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/ssi10561/ssi10561.pdf)

7. A policy that favors preventive warfare expresses a futile quest for absolute security
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strategy, though not always policy, must be nothing if not pragmatic.

No prior questions

Owen 2 (David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7)
Commenting on the ’philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ’~a~
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the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Rejection alt makes effective politics impossible

Tara McCormack 10, Lecturer in International Politics at the University of Leicester, PhD in IR from the University of Westminster, "Critique, Security and Power: The Political Limits to Emancipatory Approaches," p. 58, google books
Contemporary critical and emancipatory approaches reject the possibility of reaching an objective evaluation of the
AND
their theory is for the purposes of emancipation and a just world order.

The alt fails — Discard non-empirical theories of war

Moore 4 – Dir. Center for Security Law @ University of Virginia (7-time Presidential appointee, 26 Honorary Editor of the American Journal of International Law, Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace, John Norton Moore, page xxii-xxvi
• The "cause" of the "democratic peace" is likely not any
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that this book may make an at least modest contribution to its goal.

No self-fulfilling prophecy – empirics prove appeasement fails and our reps are key to avoid conflict and assure allies

Blumenthal et al 11 (Dan Blumenthal, current commissioner and former vice chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Mark Stokes, Michael Mazza, 9/6/11, "Avoiding Armageddon with China" http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/09/06/avoiding_armageddon_with_china?wpisrc=obinsite)

The balancing and hedging strategy should involve options to avoid what Traub rightfully describes as
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quo. Not doing so, we fear, would lead to Armageddon.

The alt doesn’t spillover
Mearsheimer 1, Poli. Sci. Prof. @ U. Chicago, (John J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics)

Great powers cannot commit themselves to the pursuit of a peaceful world order for two
AND
Treaty of Versailles, not sur¬prisingly, did little to promote European stability.
Furthermore, consider American thinking on how to achieve stability in Europe in the early
AND
it led directly to the Berlin crises of 1958-59 and 1961."
Second, great powers cannot put aside power considerations and work to promote international peace
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with the broader interests of the international community, invariably die at birth.

elections

Israel won’t be aggressive—-multiple constraints

Ravid ’11—diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz newspaper (Barak, Netanyahu tells cabinet, http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/netanyahu-tells-cabinet-israel-lacks-legitimacy-for-major-gaza-operation-1.380121)

The cabinet voted Monday to refrain from any action that could lead to an escalation in the south and to cooperate indirectly with the truce Hamas declared on Sunday. So far, the truce has largely held, although three rockets did hit southern Israel from the Gaza Strip on Monday.
The cabinet meeting began at about 11 P.M. Sunday and adjourned at about 3 A.M. Monday morning. The ministers were briefed by senior defense officials, but were not asked to approve any further military action. Instead, the meeting focused on ways to contain the situation and prevent an escalation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak offered various arguments for why Israel must exercise restraint - its international isolation, the fact that the Iron Dome rocket interception system still offers only partial defense, and the fear of worsening the diplomatic crisis with Egypt. Under these circumstances, Netanyahu said, all-out war against Hamas-run Gaza would be inadvisable.
Prior to the cabinet meeting, several ministers had called for a harsher Israeli response to the rocket fire; and that is largely what prompted Netanyahu to convene the cabinet Sunday night: By having the full cabinet approve the decision to refrain from further military action, he hoped to block criticism from within the government.
What emerged most clearly from Netanyahu’s and Barak’s statements to the cabinet was that Israel lacks the international legitimacy needed for a large-scale operation in Gaza. The diplomatic crisis with Egypt further constrains Israel’s freedom of action.
"The prime minister thinks it would be wrong to race into a total war in Gaza right now," one of Netanyahu’s advisors said. "We are preparing to respond if the fire continues, but Israel will not be dragged into places it doesn’t want to be."
Several Netanyahu aides detailed the constraints on Israeli military action, most of which are diplomatic.
"There’s a sensitive situation in the Middle East, which is one big boiling pot; there’s the international arena; there’s the Palestinian move in the Untied Nations in September," when the Palestinians hope to obtain UN recognition as a state, one advisor enumerated. "We have to pick our way carefully."
But there were also military constraints, the aides noted. For one, the Israel Defense Forces do not yet have enough Iron Dome batteries to defend the home front.
"If we had even one more battery, we could defend another medium-sized city," one aide said. "That’s precisely why we need to prepare instead of rushing into war."

No impact to Iran prolif, it’s all posturing and no one will use weapons

Copley 13
~Gregory, director of Australia’s new grand strategy research organization, the Future Directions Institute (FDI) (originally known as the Centre for International Strategic Analysis: CISA), in Perth, Western Australia. He remains actively involved with FDI, and is currently a Director of the organization and Chairman of its Research Committee, "The Transition Beyond Strategic Nuclear War", 1/8/13,  http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Transition-Beyond-Strategic-Nuclear-War.html~~

One government which successfully acquired nuclear weapons did not see possession of that asset protect
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they would, wouldn’t they? This is about psycho-political posturing). 

Midterms too far off to predict – too many variables

Leonhardt 4/22 ~David Leonhardt is the managing editor of a new New York Times website covering politics and policy, scheduled to begin in 2014. He was previously the paper’s Washington bureau chief, as well as an economics columnist. He is the author of the e-book, "Here’s the Deal: How Washington Can Solve the Deficit and Spur Growth," published by The Times and Byliner. Previously, Mr. Leonhardt wrote the paper’s Economic Scene column, focusing on the housing bubble, the economic downturn, the budget deficit, health reform and education. In April 2011, he was awarded the Pulitzer Prize for commentary, 4/22, "Ways to Think About the Model", http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/23/upshot/ways-to-think-about-the-model.html?partner=rss26emc=rss26_r=0~~
We realize that many people will interpret our Senate model as predicting that the Democrats
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in the next six and a half months. And you’ll be watching.

Midterm predictions are impossible now— the primaries haven’t even happened yet

Greenfield 3/26/14 (Jeff, The Daily Beast, "You Don’t Need Nate Silver to ’Predict’ a GOP Win This Fall" http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/26/you-don-t-need-nate-silver-to-predict-a-gop-win-this-fall.html)

For all of his reliance on national polls, fund-raising numbers, and
AND
in the White House historically takes a hit in the sixth year midterms.
Given this terrain, it’s unexceptionable to suggest—with or without numbers—that the Democrats could well lose the Senate.
What this is not…is a prediction.
It’s an estimate that acknowledges that we’re still almost eight months away from election; that party primaries could produce candidates that could turn an eminently winnable race into a loss (Google: 2008 + 2010 + GOP + Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado); that Obama’s approval ratings could improve between now and the fall, that candidates could do dumb things, like using a Duke basketball celebration in Kentucky, or insult the business of farming in Iowa).
The meaning of a "probability" estimate can be understood by resorting to the last refuge of political metaphors: sports.
If a football team is ahead by three points with five minutes to go,
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(His detractors, of course, would have had a field day).
If you want to predict a GOP Senate takeover, you’re saying something much more bold and risky than an estimate. You’re saying, "I don’t care what the primaries produce, I don’t care what gaffes and stumbles happen in the campaign, I don’t care where Obama stands—the Republicans are going to win." Manifestly, that’s not what most folks—Silver included—are saying.

Turnout crushes the link

Bedard 3-28 ~PAUL BEDARD; "Democrats sweat over slumping support from single women, younger voters"; MARCH 28, 2014; http://washingtonexaminer.com/democrats-sweat-over-slumping-support-from-single-women-younger-voters/article/2546446~~

Democrats sweat over slumping support from single women, younger voters
With voters depressed over the economy, upset with Obamacare and greatly disapproving of President Obama, Democrats are in a sweat over lackluster voter turnout in November when control of the Senate will be up for grabs.
New polling shows that Republicans are super-charged at getting a chance to vote against Democrats and Obama while two key Democratic voting groups, unmarried women and younger Americans, are checking out of the process.
"Turnout will be a major test for Democrats," said pollster Celinda Lake. She called new polling data showing a 64 percent to 57 percent enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats "pretty sobering."
In midterm elections, Democrats typically lag Republicans in intensity by 10-15 points, but the gap is 17 points, she said.
A new George Washington University Battleground Poll, for example, found that just 36 percent of voters 18-29 are "extremely likely" to vote in the midterm elections. It’s 38 percent for single women. Both were key Obama support groups in his two presidential elections.
The voter enthusiasm gap played out in the recent special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District, where the GOP surprised the Democrats with an effective get-out-the-vote program — and victory.
Adding to the Democratic woes is the historic pattern of losses in the president’s party during his sixth year and just the fact that Obama isn’t on the ballot. "There is a huge turnout disadvantage and challenge," said Lake, adding, "there is always a challenge in turnout in an off year, but it’s really dramatic this time."
Worse, she said, as Democrats give up hopes of winning back the House to save the Senate, there is growing concerns that the GOP could hit House Democrats starved of money.

Foreign policy distractions wreck the agenda

Dana Milbank 4/24, Delaware Online News Journal, "What’s missing from Obama’s Asia trip? News", 2014, www.delawareonline.com/story/opinion/contributors/2014/04/24/missing-obamas-asia-trip-news/8105755/
But one thing is missing from the president’s otherwise exciting itinerary: making news.
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forceful and consistent, and at his worst when he plays the bystander.

PC fails

Ornstein 4-22 — Norm Ornstein, contributing editor and columnist for National Journal, serves as resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research ("The Most Enduring Myth About the Presidency", 04-22-2014, Available Online at: http://www.nationaljournal.com/washington-inside-out/the-most-enduring-myth-about-the-presidency-20140422, Accessed 04-23-2014)

But there was one downside: the reactivation of one of the most enduring memes and myths about the presidency, and especially the Obama presidency. Like Rasputin (or Whac-A-Mole,) it keeps coming back even after it has been bludgeoned and obliterated by facts and logic. I feel compelled to whack this mole once more.
The meme is what Matthew Yglesias, writing in 2006, referred to as "
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Dan Rostenkowski and Bill Bradley to get tax reform, and so on.
If only Obama had dealt with Congress the way LBJ did—persuading, cajoling
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have a fiscal deal that would solve the long-term debt problem.
If only the proponents of this theory would step back and look at the realities of all these presidencies (or would read or reread the Richard Neustadt classic, Presidential Power.)
I do understand the sentiment here and the frustration over the deep dysfunction that has taken over our politics. It is tempting to believe that a president could overcome the tribalism, polarization, and challenges of the permanent campaign, by doing what other presidents did to overcome their challenges. It is not as if passing legislation and making policy was easy in the old days.
But here is the reality, starting with the Johnson presidency. I do not
AND
rights to Medicare to elementary and secondary education reform, than any other.
LBJ had a lot to do with the agenda, and the accomplishments. But
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on final passage of key bills to ensure the legitimacy of the actions.
Johnson deserves credit for horse-trading (for example, finding concessions to give
AND
cajoling and persuading and horse-trading in the world did not matter.
Now briefly consider other presidents. Ronald Reagan was a master negotiator, and he
AND
, who put together immigration legislation with limited involvement by the White House.
As for Bill Clinton, he was as politically adept as any president in modern
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in the majority, and ended shortly after they had accomplished that goal.
When Obama had the numbers, not as robust as LBJ’s but robust enough,
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like health reform and raising taxes as part of a broad budget deal.
Could Obama have done more to bond with lawmakers? Sure, especially with members
AND
. Nobody can, and to demand otherwise is both futile and foolish.

1AR

obamacare thumper

Midterms are unpredictable – Obamacare thumps

Vinik 4/21 ~Danny Vinik, Political Reporter at Business Insider, APRIL 21, 2014, "The Republican Party’s Plan to Retake the Senate Is Falling Apart", http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117466/2014-midterm-odds-republicans-chances-taking-senate-are-falling~~
The Washington consensus right now is that Republicans are slight favorites to take control of
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meaningless because Obama’s legislative agenda is already dead, it’s time to reconsider.

ukraine

Ukraine backwards—-hollowing out Obama’s cred now

Adam O’Neal, RCP, 3/26/14, U.S.-Russia Tensions: A Key Issue in the Midterms?, www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/03/26/us-russia_tensions_a_key_issue_in_the_midterms_122055.html

Russia’s recent geopolitical clashes with the United States — first over Syria, and now
AND
, they’ll likely also see more on the issue during the commercial breaks.