Tournament: Golden Desert | Round: 5 | Opponent: St Vincent GC | Judge: Ideen Saiedian
ERROR

Tournament: gonzaga | Round: 3 | Opponent: tigard cs | Judge: john gunn
The status quo is hardline policies toward Cuba – Obama’s rhetoric hasn’t changed anything
Kovalik 6-28 Dan, Senior Associate with the AFL-CIO, Citing Lamrani, a US-Cuba relations expert “Trying to Destroy the Danger of a Good Example: The Unrelenting Economic War on Cuba” 6/28/13 http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/28/the-unrelenting-economic-war-on-cuba/
Imagine then, what Cuba could do if the U.S. blockade were
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— vowed to end support for, and joint work, with Cuba.
The plan uniquely reverses that trend - devastating US credibility and resolve
Etzioni ’11 Amitai, Prof IR at George Washington, “The Coming Test of US Credibility” Military Review http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf 2011
THE RELATIVE POWER of the United States is declining—both because other nations are
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policy will be characterized by a much more constrained approach to the world.
A collapse of credibility ignites a host of conflicts causing nuke war
Cohen 3-19 Eliot, Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins, “Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/13 ln
In Mr. Obama's second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional military commitments
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must, and those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons.

Tournament: TOC | Round: 1 | Opponent: Westminster LS | Judge: Abby Schirmer

1nc

The Asia trip is Obama’s top priority – successful balancing solves Chinese aggression

Eilperin 4/20, Julian is a Washington Post Reporter, During Asia Trip Obama Seeks to Rebalance America’s Relationship with the Region, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/during-asia-trip-obama-seeks-to-rebalance-americas-relationship-with-the-region/2014/04/20/055e3ba0-c73c-11e3-9f37-7ce307c56815_story.html
On one level, the president has a long list of tasks awaiting him:
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boundaries in the South China Sea.
Cuba policy specifically trades off obama’s focus
Luxner 12 (Larry is a news editor for The Washington Diplomat "Cuba Welcomes Pope, As U.S. Slams Door on Easing Embargo" 2/29/12 http://www.washdiplomat.com/index.php?option=com_content26view=article26id=8222:cuba-welcomes-pope-as-us-slams-door-on-easing-embargo26catid=1484:march-201226Itemid=497)SC
Wilkerson, who just returned from a trip to Havana, is a visiting professor
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However, it’s still a very difficult move for the Democrats to make."

Diplomatic capital is finite and new priorities trade off

Walt 9, Professor of International Relations at Harvard,
Nibbled to death by ducks, http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/07/27/nibbled_to_death_by_ducks.)
Moreover, trying to advance the ball on so many different fronts simultaneously carries its
AND
down on copyright violations but the problem remains pervasive, and so on.
In On War, Carl von Clausewitz famously described what he termed the "friction
AND
actually make the other items on their agenda easier to accomplish later on. 

Diplomatic capital’s key – Obama needs to stay on track

NSN 4/21, National Security Network, Continuing Strategic Rebalancing to Asia: The Do’s and Don’ts, http://nsnetwork.org/continuing-strategic-rebalancing-to-asia-the-dos-and-donts/
With Vice President Biden in Kiev and President Obama arriving in Asia tomorrow, the
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implied between America’s priorities in Asia and its ability to manage crises elsewhere.
Chinese conflict goes nuclear
Goldstein 13 (Avery Goldstein, Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, Director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China, University of Pennsylvania, "China’s Real and Present Danger", Foreign Affairs, Sep/Oct 2013, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139651/avery-goldstein/chinas-real-and-present-danger)
Much of the debate about China’s rise in recent years has focused on the potential
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that it believes are safe but that turn out to be unexpectedly provocative.

Tournament: gonzaga | Round: 2 | Opponent: Ingraham DC | Judge: Paige Spraker
The aff is bathed in desire – surrounded by selfishness the aff manifests as only a failed method of perceiving the world is bad and trying to fix it - Our current ‘solutions’ are DELUSIONS. They all reinforce the problems at hand. Only through the alt can we finally awaken.  
Loy 10 ( David R. Loy is a professor, writer, and Zen teacher in the Sanbo Kyodan tradition of Japanese Zen Buddhism, 2010, “Healing Ecology,” Journal of Buddhist Ethics, Volume 17, http://blogs.dickinson.edu/buddhistethics/files/2010/05/Loy-Healing-Ecology1.pdf) RM
One way to describe this problem is that, since the sense of self is
AND
of our individual predicament corresponds ¶ precisely to our collective ecological predicament today.
The impact is extinction – modern modes of economics focused on consumption necessitate destruction of humankind
Puntasen 7 (APICHAI, Professor and Dean, Faculty of Management Science, December 12, 2007, “BUDDHIST ECONOMICS AS A NEW PARADIGM TOWARDS HAPPINESS,” Society and Economy, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 181-200) RM
It has now been shown clearly that the word utility as used in western econom
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of humankind is enough to warrant the need ¶ for a paradigm shift.
The alternative is to reject the 1ac’s call to act in favor of mindful reflection.
Mindfulness redraws economic frameworks – creates systemic change that reverses injustice
Magnuson 11 – PhD in Economics, Professor @ PCC
(Joel, “Ethical Principles and Economic Transformation – A Buddhist Approach,” p. 99)BB
In a literal sense, mindfulness is a state of mind in which people become
AND
embedded within, a broader cultural configuration that will be the mindful economy.

Tournament: gonzaga | Round: 3 | Opponent: tigard cs | Judge: john gunn
China’s influence in Latin America is expanding at the expense of the US – it’s zero sum
Martinez, 13 – Columnist for the Sun Sentinel (Guillermo I., “America Losing Influence Throughout Latin America”, SunSentinel, 5/23, http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2013-05-23/news/fl-gmcol-oped0523-20130523_1_drug-cartels-latin-america-pri)//VP
Once upon a time, as many fairy tales start, the United States was
AND
lose status as a premier world power. This is no fairy tale.

US-Cuba relations check Chinese influence in the region – and spills over to the rest of the region
Benjamin-Alvadaro ‘6 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,” http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)

Additionally, Venezuela remains the fourth largest importer of oil to the United States and
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circumstances but have well-served the commercial interests of all parties involved.

Chinese influence in Latin America is key to their soft power
Castillo 9 –Anthony Castillo is a writer for the Diplomat, (“China in Latin America, June 18, 2009, http://thediplomat.com/2009/06/18/china-in-latin-america/?all=true)//sawyer
China’s aim in Latin America these days differs dramatically from the 1960s, when the
AND
Chinatown’s leaders play a central role in making connections and building partnerships.’

That controls every existential scenario
Zhang ’12 (Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. “The Rise of China’s Political Softpower” 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm)
As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must
AND
As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.

Tournament: Fullerton | Round: Octas | Opponent: San Dieguito GS | Judge: Forrest Fulgenzi, DeRay Preston, Steven Sander
CP Text: The Executive branch of the United States federal government should establish a Presidential Bipartisan Commission on Cuba empowered to submit to Congress recommendations for economic engagement. The Commission should debate over whether the United States federal government should plan. Congress should adopt the recommendations of the commission. 

The commission will say yes, solves the aff, and avoids political backlash from the pro-embargo lobby
Ratliff, 13 - research fellow and former curator of the Americas Collection at the
AND
the need for change and its findings would give Obama cover for action.

Tournament: ASU | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Loyola AC | Judge: Tim Lewis, Steven Sander, Michael Kurtenbach
The United States federal government should ask the European Union to diplomatically engage Cuba on its behalf.  The United States federal government should inform the European Union that it will abide by the results of negotiations, and implement any policy changes that negotiations between the European Union and Cuba recommend.

That solves – the perm and plan don’t
Luxner 5 – News Editor, CubaNews (Larry, “Analysts debate EU's role in hastening Cuba's future 'transition to democracy',” Luxner News, November, http://www.luxner.com/cgi-bin/view_article.cgi?articleID=1419)//SY
Richard Youngs, co-director of FRIDE, says one hopeful sign that the
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it has encouraged European civil society organizations to play a more practical role.”

Tournament: Long Beach | Round: 1 | Opponent: Nevada Union BS | Judge: John Hines
Economic engagement is an imperialist tool used to forward US geopolitical dominance – economic influence perpetuates the North/South geographical divide which makes war inevitable
Jones, Jones, and Woods, 04 (Martin Jones* - PhD in Human Geography from the University of Manchester, Rhys Jones; Professor of Human Geography at the University
of Wales Aberystwyth - Professor in Human Geography @ the University¶ of Wales Aberystwyth, Michael Woods* - PhD in Human Geography from Bristol University; Professor of Human Geography and Director of the Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences @ the University¶ of Wales Aberystwyth, 2004, “AN INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY Space, place and politics”, http://118.97.161.124/perpus-fkip/Perpustakaan/Geography/Geografi20manusia/Pengantar20Geografi20Politik.pdf) MD
Political domination can take on many forms. At¶ its most basic and uncompromising
AND
and the broader international political economy (see Agnew and Corbridge¶ 1995).¶ 

This makes imperialistic violence, war and destruction inevitable – Latin America becomes a playground for the elite to commit violence
Grandin 06 (Empire's Workshop: Latin America, the United States, and the Rise of the New Imperialism,  Greg Grandin,  Macmillan, May 2, 2006 –BRW)
The ARGENTINE WRITER Jorge Luis Borges once remarked that the lack of camels in the
AND
in the Cold War, of which Central America was the tragic endgame. 

The alternative is to reject the 1AC in order to politicize the affirmative’s conception of geography – discourse analysis solves
Jones, Jones, and Woods, 04 (Martin Jones* - PhD in Human Geography from the University of Manchester, Rhys Jones; Professor of Human Geography at the University
of Wales Aberystwyth - Professor in Human Geography @ the University¶ of Wales Aberystwyth, Michael Woods* - PhD in Human Geography from Bristol University; Professor of Human Geography and Director of the Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences @ the University¶ of Wales Aberystwyth, 2004, “AN INTRODUCTION TO POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY Space, place and politics”, http://118.97.161.124/perpus-fkip/Perpustakaan/Geography/Geografi20manusia/Pengantar20Geografi20Politik.pdf) MD
Far more influential have been two conceptual¶ developments which served to further politicise the
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independent of the person who exercises it.¶ (Foucault 1979: 201)

Tournament: Long Beach | Round: 4 | Opponent: College Prep AG | Judge: Richard Idriss
Intellectualism and post-structural analysis breeds inaction and diverts the focus from the international stage—this makes exercising hegemony impossible
Willis ‘95, Professor of Journalism and Director of Concentraion in Cultural Reporting and Criticism at NYU, 12-19-95 (Ellen, The Village Voice)
If intellectuals are more inclined to rise to the discrete domestic issue than the historic
AND
is simply the most practical way of resolving those "implacable ancient rivalries."

Their musings of utopian societies drain support for hegemony—and we’ll indict their methodology—their K is so deep within the ivory tower that it can’t even access society
Hanson, 3 (Victor Davis, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Professor Emeritus at California University, Fresno, Ph.D. from Stanford, “We Could Still Lose.” National Review Online. August 11. http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/3050721.html.)
If one were to collate the news reports about the Mosul shootout, the lessons
AND
—whining and debating to the end, even as they pass away. 

The impact is global warfare
Kagan ‘7, Robert Kagan (Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund) 2007 “End of Dreams, Return of History,” Hoover Institution, No. 144, August/September, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/6136
 The jostling for status and influence among these ambitious nations and would-be
AND
new instability, one likely to draw the United States back in again.

The alternative is a micro-political embrace of hegemony
Calling intellectual attention to hegemony in terms of maximizing its productivity incorporates the reasons hegemony may be bad in the squo—their purely anti-institutional politics fail to consider our alternative
Adolphs and Karakayali ‘7, Micropolitics and Hegemony, Both Fellows @ European Institute of Progressive Cultural Policies, http://eipcp.net/transversal/0607/adolphs-karakayali/en
The starting point for this article was our joint reading of the text “1968
AND
practice of politics, which has an anti-passive effect.9

Tournament: Fullerton | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola BG | Judge: Charlie Clark
Obama has sufficient momentum now to pass immigration reform --- it is the top priority
Taylor, 1/5 (David, 1/5/2014, thetimes.co.uk, “Fun in sun over as Obama gets serious about second term,” Factiva))
With Mr Obama’s personal approval ratings at their lowest point following the accident-prone
AND
2 trillion, while off-setting the cost of an ageing population.

Some link card

Obama has political capital and it’s key to immigration reform
Epstein 10/17 – writer for Politico (Reid, “Obama’s latest push features a familiar strategy,” Politico, 10/17/13, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/barack-obama-latest-push-features-familiar-strategy-98512.html ) JGoldschlag
President Barack Obama made his plans for his newly won political capital official — he’s
AND
of the 2012 election — and a dare to do better next time.

CIR is key to effective US-India relations
Zee News 12  “Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY”, October 1st, 2012, http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-hike-in-ny_802978.html 

New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several
AND
Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today. 

Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al ’10 Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security. “Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations,” October, Center for New American Security, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns20-20Natural20Allies.pdf
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new
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transform a series of bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.

Tournament: ASU | Round: Quarters | Opponent: Loyola AC | Judge: Tim Lewis, Steven Sander, Michael Kurtenbach
The EU will reach a trade deal with Latin America that will revive its economy – the brink is now
Economist 12/14, http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21591629-last-brazil-keen-trade-deal-strategic-patience-runs-out
WHILE Roberto Azevêdo, the new Brazilian boss of the World Trade Organisation, armtwisted
AND
cheap enough. “They’ve learnt that they can’t protect themselves from globalisation.”
U.S.-EU engagement is zero sum – they crowd out Europe
Rubio Ross 13, Luis Arnoldo Rubio-Rios, xx-xx-2013,  Universidad Estatal a Distancia (UNED), Costa Rica, “Europe Interest in Latin America,” http://euce.org/eusa/2013/browse.php?sort=author
The first question we have to ask is if Latin America is a region of
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consolidate its commercial, economical, financial and political influence throughout the region.
The plan is viewed as a re-incarnation of the Monroe Doctrine – that freaks out Europe and deters investment
Feldman 6, Andreas Feldmann, xx-xx-2006, Associate Professor of the Institute of Political Science at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, “The Interest of the European Union in Security Issues in Latin America in the 21 st Century,” http://www.capital-social.net/moodle/images/Sudamerica_Gefahren.pdf#page=67
The United States has historically played a prominent role in the Western Hemisphere. Soon
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presence in order to guarantee and protect its multiple security and economic interests.
The impact is extinction – stable EU growth gives them the ability to solve every transnational threat
Stokes 10 (Bruce, International Economics Columnist – National Journal, “Greek Tragedy Haunts Global Markets, Policies”, YaleGlobal, 3-17, http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/03/137_62527.html)
To paraphrase the noted economist Woody Allen, Europe is at a crossroads as it
AND
their act together and to articulate forcefully US interests in their crisis management.

Tournament: gonzaga | Round: 2 | Opponent: Ingraham DC | Judge: Paige Spraker
Removal of the embargo allows international financial organizations and transnational capitalists to flood enact a corporate takeover of the entire country with floods of subsidized products and trading deals.
Gonzalez, 3 – Assistant professor at Seattle University School of Law
(Carmen, “SEASONS OF RESISTANCE: SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN CUBA” p. 729-33, Summer 2003, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=987944##)HA

Cuba was able to transform its agricultural development model as a consequence of the political
AND
S. rice imports in the first half of the twentieth century.418

You have an ethical obligation to reject neoliberalism – it degrades all human life in an attempt to profit
Morgareidge, 98 – professor of philosophy at Lewis and Clark (Clayton, “Why capitalism is evil”, 1998, http://www.lclark.edu/~clayton/commentaries/evil.html)

 ¶ To show why this is the case, let me turn to capital's
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capitalism is on the table will ethics have a seat at the table.¶ 

Reject the aff.  As counter-hegemonic practices proliferate we need to join Cuba in a rejection of the neoliberal system – this is mutually exclusive with removing the embargo
Lambie, 10 – Ph.D., joint-editor of the International Journal of Cuban Studies, and Lecturer in Public Policy at De Montfort University (George Lambie, “The Cuban Revolution in the 21st Century”, Pluto Press, pg. 7)eek

However, this book does not seek to present Cuba as an example to be
AND
global capitalism that the Revolution can follow its metier and its perceived destiny.

Tournament: ASU | Round: 4 | Opponent: Head Royce LS | Judge: Cade Cottrell
US economic involvement in Mexico is profit-driven and hurts the Mexican people and economy
Cooney, environmental and economic research at the Center for the Biology of Natural Systems, Queens College, City University of New York, 01 (Paul, “The Mexican Crisis and the Maquiladora Boom A Paradox of Development or the Logic of Neoliberalism?”, Latin American Perspectives 28:55, 2001, Sage Publications)AS
Supporters of the maquiladora industry argue that transnational corpora- tion expansion is beneficial and
AND
transnational corporations operating in the northern border region (see Pena, 1997)

Reject the aff. Only an ontolo You have an ethical obligation to reject neoliberalism – it degrades all human life in an attempt to profit
Morgareidge, 98 – professor of philosophy at Lewis and Clark (Clayton, “Why capitalism is evil”, 1998, http://www.lclark.edu/~clayton/commentaries/evil.html)

 ¶ To show why this is the case, let me turn to capital's
AND
capitalism is on the table will ethics have a seat at the table.¶
Reject the aff. Only an ontological rejection of the neoliberal mindset can solve – empirics proves reformism is coopted
Lambie, 10 – Ph.D., joint-editor of the International Journal of Cuban Studies, and Lecturer in Public Policy at De Montfort University (George Lambie, “The Cuban Revolution in the 21st Century”, Pluto Press, pg. 61-63)eek

Political economy, which seeks a more interdisciplinary interpretation of the world, may be
AND
which rejects the pseudo-scientific legitimacy that the empiricists seek to attain.

Tournament: Fullerton | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola BG | Judge: Charlie Clark
Intervention in Venezuela is marked by self-interest and neoliberal imposition
Clement, Visiting Assistant Professor of Politics at Pomona, 05 (Christopher, “Confronting Hugo Chávez: United States "Democracy Promotion" in Latin America”, Latin American Perspectives 32:3, 5/05, JSTOR)AS
I offer a markedly different critique of U.S. democracy promotion. Indeed
AND
democracy but also repair Venezuela's "close friendship"? with the United States.

You have an ethical obligation to reject neoliberalism – it degrades all human life in an attempt to profit
Morgareidge, 98 – professor of philosophy at Lewis and Clark (Clayton, “Why capitalism is evil”, 1998, http://www.lclark.edu/~clayton/commentaries/evil.html)

 ¶ To show why this is the case, let me turn to capital's
AND
capitalism is on the table will ethics have a seat at the table.¶ 

Reject the aff. Only an ontological rejection of the neoliberal mindset can solve – empirics proves reformism is coopted
Lambie, 10 – Ph.D., joint-editor of the International Journal of Cuban Studies, and Lecturer in Public Policy at De Montfort University (George Lambie, “The Cuban Revolution in the 21st Century”, Pluto Press, pg. 61-63)eek

Political economy, which seeks a more interdisciplinary interpretation of the world, may be
AND
which rejects the pseudo-scientific legitimacy that the empiricists seek to attain.

Tournament: Fullerton | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola BG | Judge: Charlie Clark
Prices rising now --- will remain above $100 --- best and most predictive evidence
AllAfrica News 7-30 (“High Oil Prices - Boom to Some, Doom to Others”, 2013, http://m.allafrica.com/stories/201307301218.html/, Deech)

Oil prices have remained consistently high and volatile over the past few years. According to estimates, they may remain this way at least until 2014. The Brent crude spot price, which averaged 112 dollars a barrel in 2012, is projected to remain above 100 dollars a barrel. This is at an average of 108 dollars and 101 dollars per barrel, in 2013 and 2014, respectively. High oil prices may dampen the global economy, which is still struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. High oil prices above 100 dollars can be explained by many factors and they may affect economies in an uneven way, with an unclear outcome for the global economy as a whole. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a 50pc increase in oil prices, due to a supply shock, would lead to a one to 1.5pc decrease in output, in many regions of the world. Rising oil prices will affect African economies differently depending on whether they are net exporters or net importers of the commodity. For oil-importing economies, high oil prices could translate into high import bills with adverse effects on inflation, production and employment. In contrast, oil-exporting economies could benefit from high oil prices, because an increase in oil revenues improves their balance of payments. In addition, price volatility may harm both importers and exporters of oil. It lowers, for instance, the predictability of marginal costs of production for companies. The uncertainty regarding their cash flows may induce companies to reduce their investments and limit job creation, which can consequently harm economic growth. Oil prices have increased since 2003, from less than 40 dollars to more than 100 dollars per barrel today. Oil prices fell sharply in 2008, before recovering steadily since then. Prices were volatile during 2011 and 2012, mainly because of the Arab Spring and events in Libya, in addition to conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Many uncertain and conflicting factors on both supply and demand sides have contributed to the persistent high oil prices in recent years. Geopolitical factors are the main causes that drove up oil prices in producing countries. In the past decade, wars in Iraq and political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa have affected the oil market. More recently, disagreements between Western nations and Iran - one of the largest oil producers and exporters in the world - have fuelled risks of sharp disruptions in oil supplies globally. This, in turn, had a significant impact on prices of the commodity. In contrast, major oil producing countries, mainly Saudi Arabia, may not be able to boost production and instead have to cover losses elsewhere, as their capacities are reaching their limit. The decline in aggregate oil inventories and high costs of oil extraction and production are other supply-side factors affecting oil prices. Increasing demand from major emerging economies, such as China and India, has also played an important role in keeping oil prices persistently high over the past years. The Asian continent surpassed the US and is now the largest consumer of oil in the world. Despite the slowdown in economic growth in China and India, demand will remain higher. This will keep oil prices at high levels. Furthermore, as growth is resuming in the US and as the crisis in the euro area seems to be easing, global demand for oil may increase.

Insert aff-specific link
Any sustained drop below $100 per barrel causes Russian collapse --- that’s the key benchmark
Whitmore 13 (Brian, Senior Russia Correspondent – Radio Free Europe, “After The Storm: Trends To Watch In Russia In 2013”, Radio Free Europe, 1-2, The Power Vertical)

It began with a roar and it ended with a whimper. As 2012 wound down in Russia, the soaring expectations for change that accompanied the civic awakening and mass protests at the year’s dawn had clearly faded. But the social, economic, and political forces that spawned them will continue to shape the landscape well into the new year. A fledgling middle class remains hungry for political change, splits still plague the ruling elite over the way forward, and a fractious opposition movement continues to struggle to find its voice. With the Kremlin unable to decisively squelch the mounting dissent and the opposition unable to topple President Vladimir Putin, Russia has entered an uneasy holding pattern that has the feel of an interlude between two epochs. "I don't think we are at the end of the Putin era, but we are at the beginning of the end," says longtime Russia-watcher Edward Lucas, international editor of the British weekly "The Economist" and author of the recently published book "Deception." With economic headwinds on the horizon, generational conflict brewing, and new political forces developing, Russian society is changing -- and changing rapidly. But the political system remains ossified. So what can we expect in 2013? Below are several trends and issues to keep an eye on in the coming year. The Oil Curse: Energy Prices And The Creaking Welfare State If 2012 was all about politics, 2013 will also be about economics. The Russian economy, the cliche goes, rests on two pillars -- oil and gas. And both will come under increasing pressure as the year unfolds. World oil prices, currently hovering between $90 and $100 per barrel, are expected to be volatile for the foreseeable future. And any sharp drop could prove catastrophic for the Russian economy. Energy experts and economists say Russia's budget will only stay balanced if oil prices remain between $100 and $110 per barrel. Five years ago, the figure needed for a balanced budget was $50 to $55.
The impact is nuclear war
Filger 9 (Sheldon, Author – Huffington Post, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction”, http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)

In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that is rarely encountered in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of the former Soviet Union that led to its political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably alarmed at the prospect that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability, achieved at great cost after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are occurring among rank and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries. Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev are eroding rapidly. Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who have been forced to deleverage, even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise cash. Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out of the question, the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be for the Global Economic Crisis. There is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then the economic context. Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived decline from superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal of sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S. President Barack Obama's national security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major economic meltdown in Russia for the peace of the world. After all, the most recent national intelligence estimates put out by the U.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global Economic Crisis represents the greatest national security threat to the United States, due to its facilitating political instability in the world. During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia, security forces responsible for guarding the nation's nuclear arsenal went without pay for months at a time, leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further, how secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.

Tournament: Stanford | Round: 2 | Opponent: Los Gatos | Judge: Priten Shah
Text: The Russian Federation should plan. 

Russia should engage Latin America – it’s politically preferred and the US is unpopular
Fillingham, 10 – (Zachary, BA in International Relations from York University, MA in Chinese Studies from the University of London, recipient of a Taiwan Ministry of Education Huayu Scholarship; “Russia Eyes Latin America,” Geopolitical Monitor, 5 April 2010, http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russia-eyes-latin-america-3652)//HO
Russia is poised to occupy the diplomatic space created in Latin America by American decline
AND
in history as prophetic, because that is exactly what’s going to happen.

specific solvency

Russian influence in Latin America is key to its economy
SELA 9 (Sistema Económico Latinoamericano y del Caribe or the Latin American and Caribbean Economic System, July 2009, “Economic relations between the Russian Federation and Latin America and the Caribbean: Current situation and prospects,” http://www.sela.org/attach/258/EDOCS/SRed/2009/07/T023600003569-0-Economic_relations_-_Russian_Federation_and_LAC.pdf) gz
Over the last few years, the economic relations between the Russian Federation and Latin
AND
is permanently renewed with new agreements among governments and companies of both parties.

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war
Filger 9 (Sheldon, Correspondent – Huffington Post, “Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free Fall Contraction”, http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)
In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree
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the financial impact of the Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.

Tournament: Long Beach | Round: 6 | Opponent: Damien LL | Judge: Chris Patterson
Their fixation on national interests and apocalyptic scenarios justifies endless violence, totalitarianism, and nuclear war—vote neg as an intellectual criticism of their securitizing representations—that’s a prerequisite to policy analysis
Ahmed 12 Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace and Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis
3. From securitisation to militarisation 3.1 Complicity
This analysis thus calls for a broader approach to environmental security based on retrieving the
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from which that programme derives can the emergence of genocidal intent become explicable.
Building on this insight, Semelin demonstrates that the process of exclusionary social group construction
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, effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Tournament: gonzaga | Round: 5 | Opponent: lake city em | Judge: bryan gaston
The affirmative engages with human rights abusers – moral duty to shun
Beversluis, 89 (Eric H. April 1989. “On Shunning Undesirable Regimes: Ethics and Economic Sanctions.” Public Affairs Quarterly, April, vol. 3, no. 2)
A fundamental task of morality is resolving conflicting interests. If we both want the
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has been made "unclean," as ancient communities might have put it.

Tournament: Long Beach | Round: 1 | Opponent: Nevada Union BS | Judge: John Hines
A. Interp - Economic engagement must be government to government, not civil or private engagement
Daga, 13 - director of research at Politicas Publicas para la Libertad, in Bolivia, and a visiting senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation (Sergio, “Economics of the 2013-2014 Debate Topic:
U.S. Economic Engagement Toward Cuba, Mexico or Venezuela”, National Center for Policy Analysis, 5/15, http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Message_to_Debaters_6-7-13.pdf)

Economic engagement between or among countries can take many forms, but this document will
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some issues are more important with respect to some countries than to others.

B. Violation – the plan {targets private businesses/civil society} {just removes a sanction and doesn’t directly engage}

C. Vote neg

1.  limits – a government limit is the only way to keep the topic manageable – otherwise they could use any 3rd party intermediary, lift barriers to private engagement, or target civil society – it makes topic preparation impossible

2. negative ground – formal governmental channels are key to predictable relations and trade disads and counterplans that test ‘engagement’

Tournament: USC RR | Round: 5 | Opponent: Niles North OW | Judge: Joel Lemuel, Ideen Saiedian
“Engagement” requires the provision of positive incentives
Haass and O’Sullivan 2k – Richard Haass and Meghan O’Sullivan, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Studies Program, Honey and Vinegar: Incentives, Sanctions, and Foreign Policy, p. 1-2

The term engagement was popularized amid the controversial policy of constructive engagement pursued by the
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shape the behavior of countries with which the United States has important disagreements.
That means the plan must be a quid-pro-quo
De LaHunt 6 - Assistant Director for Environmental Health and Safety Services in Colorado College's Facilities Services department (John, “Perverse and unintended” Journal of Chemical Health and Safety, July-August, Science direct)

Incentives work on a quid pro quo basis – this for that. If you
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run, for at least two reasons – unintended consequences and perverse incentives.
Plan isn’t -~-- voting issue:
Limits -~-- it functionally narrows the topic because few cases can defend conditioning -~-- the alternative is hundreds of single import or export cases that explode the Neg’s research burden
Ground -~-- QPQ locks in core generics like soft power and foreign politics DAs, counterplans to add or remove a condition, and critiques of diplomacy

Tournament: Fullerton | Round: 4 | Opponent: San Dieguito FB | Judge: Richard Mancuso
A. Interpretation - Economic engagement is long-term strategy for promoting structural linkage through direct trade between two economies
Mastanduno, 1 – professor of Government at Dartmouth College (Michael, “Economic Engagement Strategies: Theory and Practice” http://web.archive.org/web/20120906033646/http://polisci.osu.edu/faculty/bpollins/book/Mastanduno.pdf

The basic causal logic of economic engagement, and the emphasis on domestic politics,
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chain runs from economic interdependence through domestic political change to foreign policy accommodation.

B. Violation – the affirmative is not a direct structural linkage – it’s _

C. Vote neg -  

1. limits – broad interpretations of engagement include anything that effects the economy, which means everything

2. negative ground – trade promotion is vital for a stable mechanism for disad links and counterplan ground