Tournament: GMNDC | Round: 3 | Opponent: GBN LL | Judge: Fahrenbacher
1ac r3
Multilateralism

Embargo destroys global US credibility and causes militarism– only lifting solves
Grandin 10 – teaches history at New York University and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Greg, “Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America,” New Labor Forum, 19:1, Winter 2010, pg. 14-23)SJF
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Washington’s relations with Latin America—particularly in terms of the gap between what its policy toward the region is and what it could be—precisely measure the degree to which domestic ideologies, narrow corporate and sectional interests, and a sclerotic political system are hastening the decline of the United States as a global power. As a result, the U.S. is deepening its … quicken the U.S.’s fall.

AND, Lifting the embargo creates a credible and durable model for global multilateralism
Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, “UNITED STATES SECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA,” 1/14/10, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//SJF¶ ¶
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At the international political level, President Obama sees …. true peace for years to come.

AND, That de-escalates conflicts and creates a system of cooperation
Powell 3
(In Defense of Multilateralism, Lindsey Powell ¶ Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, 23-25 October 2003, http://www.yale.edu/gegdialogue/docs/dialogue/oct03/papers/Powell.pdf)rz¶
In defending multilateralism, I do ….means to realize common goals and contain common threats.”2

AND, Specifically key to resolve Kashmir instability
Zulfqar 2/21
(Kashmir: key to regional peace, Friday, February 21, 2014, Daily Times, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/07-Feb-2014/kashmir-key-to-regional-peace)rz
Kashmir Solidarity Day was ….. with UN resolutions has not triggered any forceful action from the world body. 

AND, Cuba is uniquely key
Piccone 9 – senior fellow and deputy director for Foreign Policy at Brookings, specializes in U.S.-Latin American relations (Ted, “The United Nations Denounces the U.S. Embargo on Cuba … Again,” 10/27/9, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2009/10/27-cuba-un-vote-piccone)//SJF
¶ For the 18th year in a row, …… reminds us yet again that it’s time for a change. 

AND, Indo-Pak war causes extinction – best computer models
Toon and Robock, Professors of Atmospheric Science, 10 Toon - chair of the Dept of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a member of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado @ Boulder. Robock is a Proff of atmospheric science at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey Local Nuclear War, Global Suffering; January 2010; Scientific American Magazine; 8 Page(s), http://www.sciamdigital.com/index.cfm?fa=Products.ViewIssuePreviewandISSUEID_CHAR=944156A6-237D-9F22-E8E572150DCA8E65andARTICLEID_CHAR=97CA0A88-237D-9F22-E861FD76EBEE2611
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Worry has focused on the U.S. versus Russia, but a regional …. of the smoke or the long time it would take oceans to warm back up as the smoke eventually dissipated; current models of a full-scale nuclear exchange predict a nuclear winter, not a nuclear fall.

AND, Independently, absent new multilateral cooperation, Middle East instability goes nuclear
Russell 2009
Naval Postgraduate School National Security professor, 2009 (James, "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Nuclear War and Escalation in the Middle East",http://www.nps.edu/academics/sigs/ccc/people/biolinks/russell/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf) Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1) asymmetric interests in the bargaining framework that can ….. prevent such an outcome, which would be an unprecedented disaster for the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

AND, Decline of economic and political power is inevitable – a signal of conforming to international norms is critical to prevent devastating backlash
Ikenberry ’2 John Ikenberry, Professor of Geopolitics and Global Justice @ Georgetown, October 2002, and#34;Americaand#39;s Imperial Ambition—Foreign Affairs, lexis

Pitfalls accompany ….. of their power.

AND, End of overall US primacy is not inevitable – smart policies maintain relative US power
Nye 13 — Joseph S. Nye, Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor and Former Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Chair of the National Intelligence Council, and Deputy Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance, Science and Technology, holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University, 2013 (“American power in the 21st century will be defined by the ‘rise of the rest’,” Washington Post, June 28th, Available Online at http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-06-28/opinions/40255646_1_american-power-u-s-economy-united-states, Accessed 07-20-2013)
On the question of absolute — rather than relative — American ….. not be able to achieve the outcomes it wants without the help of others.

AND, Global trends and empirics prove the plan’s institutional credibility is the only way to effectively exercise leadership and check global violence
Kromah 9 (Lamii Moivi Kromah, Department of International Relations University of the Witwatersrand, February 2009, “The Institutional Nature of U.S. Hegemony: Post 9/11”, http://wiredspace.wits.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10539/7301/MARR2009.pdf)
A final major gain to …… security is impossible without a broad measure of international security.57 

AND, Cuba’s uniquely key to re-establish US Institutional credibility
Burgsdorff, 9– Ph. D in Political Science from Freiburg University, EU Fellow at the University of Miami (Sven Kühn von, “Problems and Opportunities for the Incoming Obama Administration”, http://aei.pitt.edu.proxy.lib.umich.edu/11047/1/vonBurgsdorfUSvsCubalong09edi.pdf)//NG
6.3 How would the international community react?  At ……. acting  unilaterally and outside the international legal framework. 

AND, Nothing short of the plan sends an effective signal
Vivanco 6- LLM from Harvard Law School, Americas director of Humyns Rights Watch
(Jose Miguel, “Restraint, not force, will bring change to Cuba”, humyns rights watch, 12/22/06, http://www.hrw.org/news/2006/12/21/restraint-not-force-will-bring-change-cuba,  google scholar)KW
This reluctance would be understandable but misguided. ….. stop looking like David.

Plan

Thus the plan:
 The United States federal government should substantially lift its economic sanctions toward the Republic of Cuba. 

Transition

Cuban collapse inevitable—three reasons
Lopez-Levy 11 – Arturo Lopez Levy is lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He a Research Associate of the Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East (ISIME) and teaches Latin American Politics, and Comparative Politics at the University of Denver and the Colorado School of Mines. (“Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy”, May 2011, New America Foundation, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf)
Cuba's Three Crises The VI Party ….. maintain the status quo.

AND, Specifically, reforms failing now
Tamayo 14  (JUAN O. TAMAYO, Poverty in Cuba increases as government slashes social spending, expert says, 2.09.14, http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/02/08/3921652/poverty-in-cuba-increases-as-government.html)rz
The reforms pushed ….. million dwellings due to lack of maintenance, a growing population and damaging hurricanes. About 111,400 units were built in 2006, but only 21,000 last year.

New reforms are not enough – embargo removal is key
LeoGrande 4/2 (Cuba’s New Foreign Investment Law Is a Bet on the Future¶ By William M. LeoGrande, on April 2, 2014 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13671/cubas-new-foreign-investment-law-is-a-bet-on-the-future
The terms of the new ……the U.S. East Coast.

AND, Plan solves a collapse – a few internal links

First, Lack of US trade makes collapse inevitable—aff makes reforms successful
Ashby 13 – Timothy is a Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. (“Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States—The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises”, March 29, 2013, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)
Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and political transformation. Reforms instituted within the past few years have brought the expansion of private sector entrepreneurial activity, including lifting restrictions on the sales of residential real estate, automobiles, and electronic goods. Additional reforms included, more than a million hectares of idle land has been leased to private farmers, where citizens have been granted permission to stay in hotels previously reserved for tourists, and freedom being granted for most Cubans to travel abroad. Stating that it was time for the “gradual transfer” of “key roles to new generations,” President Raúl Castro announced …., are barred by short-sighted federal regulations, thus hampering, if not defeating, what could be a major U.S. policy goal. 

AND, Second is foreign investment – countries are increasingly wary of doing business with Cuba – that destroys their economy
Frank 10/7 (By Marc Frank¶ HAVANA | Mon Oct 7, 2013 5:47pm EDT http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/07/us-cuba-usa-idUSBRE9960N920131007)
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(Reuters) - For the 22nd ….. are legal," said a foreign banker who asked to remain anonymous.

AND, Independently, normalizing relations solves crisis de-escalation
CSG 13 – The Cuba Study Group is a non-profit and non-partisan organization studying Cuba. (“Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba”, February 2013, http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032)
Beyond failing to advance its stated objectives, the most ….. for greater change.¶ 

Specifically, Unconditional removal key
Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, “Time for a New Cuba Policy” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)
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The option with the greatest possibility of success and …. don’t have a scapegoat. 

AND, Failure of Cuban Economic Reform guarantees Civil War
Lopez-Levy, ’11 Arturo, lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, May, Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy, ACC. 6-14-2013,  http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf, JTJEDI
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Indeed, if Cuba’s ….. must be to promote market growth through economic reform and a stable process of political liberalization that welcomes the growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.¶ 

AND, Cuban collapse causes hemispheric instability and makes conflicts in specific hotspots around the globe more likely
Gorrell, 5 - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074  GWOT=Global War on Terrorism
Regardless of the succession, under …. the policies of the past 40 years remain in effect with vigor? 

Public pressure and lack of options ensures American draw in
Rodríguez 1 (L. Jacobo Rodríguez, financial services analyst, Cato Institute, Ian Vásquez, director, Project on Global Economic Liberty, Cato Institute, “Relations with Cuba,” Cato Handbook for Congress, 2001,http://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-handbook-policymakers/2001/9/hb107-59.pdf)
 Unfortunately, …., and George¶ Shultz, unsuccessfully asked President Clinton to appoint a bipartisan¶ congressional commission to reevaluate U.S. policy toward Cuba

Multiple Scenarios

FIRST, US focus on Taiwan is critical to preventing war
Roy 12 – Dr. Denny Roy is a senior research fellow in Asian security issues with the East-West Center in Honolulu. (“Why the U.S. shouldn't abandon Taiwan”, December 6, 2012, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/06/why-the-u-s-shouldnt-abandon-taiwan/)
China is the next superpower, ….. people is real.¶ 

AND, Taiwan is the most likely scenario for nuclear war
Lowther 13– William is a staff writer for the Taipei Times, citing a CSIS report. (“Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report”, 3/16/2013, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)
Taiwan is the most …. be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating.”

SECOND, Caribbean instability causes LNG and bio-terror
Bryan 1 (Anthony T. Bryan, director of the North-South Center’s Caribbean Program, 10-21-2001. CFR, Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, p.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and20_homeland_20security.html)
Terrorist acts …..national borders.

AND, Bioweapons cause extinction
Sandberg 8 Anders, is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humynity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Mynagement at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. ?irkovi?, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, “How can we reduce the risk of humyn extinction?,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction
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The risks from …. such an event seems unlikely today, the likelihood may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.

Independently, lethality advances results in retaliation and global nuclear war
Conley 03 (Lieutenant Colonel Harry W. Conley, Chief of the System Analysis Branch, Headquarters Air Combat Command, “Not with Impunity: Assessing US Policy for Retaliating to a Chemical or Biological Attack,” Air and Space Power Journal, Spring 2003, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html)
The number of …. had been made.”48

AND, LNG terror causes extinction
Lovins 1 (Lovins and Lovins, “Brittle Power,” 2001 http://www.rmi.org/images/other/EnergySecurity/S82-03_BrPwrParts123.pdf)
LNG is less than half as dense …., or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

Finally, no prior questions
David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton,  Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, …. potentially vicious circle arises.

Tournament: GMNDC | Round: 5 | Opponent: Niles West HG | Judge: Devin Long
1ac Koehnig evidence says unconditional lifting solve democracy -- Extinction
Diamond 95- senior fellow at the Hoover institution, prof of political science at Stanford (Larry, “Promoting Democracy in the 1990s,” http://wwics.si.edu/subsites/ccpdc/pubs/di/1.htm//MGD)
 OTHER THREATS This .... world order of international security and prosperity can be built.

Tournament: GMNDC | Round: 3 | Opponent: GBN LL | Judge: Fahrenbacher
Plan solves environmental leadership
Conell, 9-Research Associate at COHA (Christina, “The U.S. and Cuba: Destined to be an Environmental Duo?”, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 6/12/09, http://www.coha.org/the-us-and-cuba-an-environmental-duo/)//TL
¶ •Cuba’s abundant natural …. instead of being applied after the fact. 

Extinction
Diner, 94 David, Ph.D., Planetary Science and Geology, "The Army and the Endangered Species Act: Who's Endangering Whom?," Military Law Review, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161
To accept that the snail darter, …. rivets from an aircraft's wings, 80 humankind may be edging closer to the abyss

Tournament: GMNDC | Round: 3 | Opponent: GBN LL | Judge: Fahrenbacher
embargo violates the human rights of Cubans, lifting solves - d-rule
Amnesty International 09—Non-profit organization to protect human rights (“THE US ¶ EMBARGO AGAINST CUBA  ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RIGHTS”, Amnesty International, http://www.amnesty.org/ar/library/asset/AMR25/007/2009/en/51469f8b-73f8-47a2-a5bd-f839adf50488/amr250072009eng.pdf, Accessed 7/4/13, jtc)

“The adverse consequences of economic sanctions on the enjoyment of human rights”, a ¶ study prepared by Marc …. of their human rights”.34

Tournament: GMNDC | Round: 5 | Opponent: Niles West HG | Judge: Devin Long
The oil lobby shields the link
Sadowski, 11 – JD, Hofstra University School of Law, and Managing Editor of the Journal of International Business and Law (Richard, “Cuban Offshore Drilling: Preparation and Prevention within the Framework of the United States’ Embargo”, 12 Sustainable Dev. L. and Pol’y 37, lexis)KW
ECONOMICS: U.S. COMPANIES .... Nonetheless, Cuba's oil exploration plans seem unfazed.5'

Cuban oil spill causes extinction
CRAIG 3 Robin Kundis Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law, 2k3 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155
Biodiversity and e... business as a result.