Tournament: Moore HS | Round: 2 | Opponent: Crossings | Judge:
Contention 1: Inherency
Cuban sugar based ethanol is essential — it’s the best solution for a transition away from oil-based fuel dependence—allowing access to the U.S. market is key
Specht  13
Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law 26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf~~**

"The United States of America cannot afford to bet our long-term prosperity
AND
, deserves much greater consideration and evaluation than it has thus far received.

Plan Text

The United States federal government should authorize the licensing of American companies to participate in the development of Cuba’s sugar ethanol industry and allow Cuban sugar ethanol imports.

Contention 2: Impact is Climate Change

Global Warming is happening – most recent and best evidence concludes that it is human induced
Muller 7-28-2012 Richard, professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former MacArthur Foundation fellow, "The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic", http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all~~

CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate
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(CO2), measured from atmospheric samples and air trapped in polar ice. 

CO2 is the primary driver of climate change – outweighs all alt causes
Vertessy and Clark 3-13-2012 Rob, Acting Director of Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Megan, Chief Executive Officer at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, "State of the Climate 2012", http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831-http://theconversation.edu.au/state-of-the-climate-2012-5831~~

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions account for about 60 of the effect from
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dominant cause of the observed CO2 increase is the combustion of fossil fuels. 

The rate of climate change prevents adaptation
Romm ’07 Joseph, Senior Fellow at Center for American Progress, Aug 29, "Hurricane Katrina and the Myth of Global Warming Adaptation," http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/8/29/94352/7786~~

If we won’t adapt to the realities of having one city below sea level in
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faster than past climate change from natural causes — and it is accelerating.

Global warming makes global agricultural production impossible – resulting in mass starvation
Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The overall conclusions of IPCC AR4 concerning food production and agriculture included the following:
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differently and food security is further challenged by a multitude of nonclimatic factors.

4 degrees of warming make sustaining biodiversity impossible – the impact is extinction
Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

Ecosystems and their species provide a range of important goods and services for human society
AND
ecosystems into a state unknown in human experience (Barnosky et al., 2012

4 degree warming is inevitable with current carbon usage trends – deceasing carbon emissions solve
Potsdam Institute, 2012 (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided", A report for the World Bank, November, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

The emission pledges made at the climate conventions in Copenhagen and Cancun, if fully
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to see a monthly summer temperature rise of more than 6°C.

Contention 3: Solvency
Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol will decrease the demand for American corn-based ethanol.  It slows the rate of climate change, pesticide use, and dead zones.
Specht  13
Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law 26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**~~**

IV. Environmental Effects of Ethanol¶ ¶ Assuming that Cuba is able to meet
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to corn production and, thus, to the domestic ethanol industry. n68

And, joint ventures jumpstart the Cuban ethanol energy industry
Alonso-Pippo et al. 8
Walfrido Alonso-Pippo- former Vice-President of the Solar Energy Department at the University of Havana and a former member of the Cuban National Renewable Energies Front, where he was a specialist in biomass energy use, Carlos A. Luengo, John Koehlinger, Pierto Garzone, Giacinto Cornacchia, "Sugarcane energy use: The Cuban case," Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6, June 2008, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840-http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421508000840~~

The rise of the price of oil above 80 USD/bbl. provides an
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movement toward the development of sugarcane as a viable alternative source of energy. 

Sugar ethanol importation from Cuba is superior to alternatives and solves impacts from domestic corn ethanol production—with no environmental damage
Specht  13
Jonathan-J.D. Wash. U St. Louis, Legal Advisor, "Raising Cane: Cuban Sugarcane Ethanol’s Economic and Environmental Effects on the United States," Environmental Law 26 Policy Journal, Univ. of California Davis, Vol. 36:2, http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf-http://environs.law.ucdavis.edu/issues/36/2/specht.pdf**~~**

B. Environmental Effects of Sugarcane-Based Ethanol¶ If future legislation does not
AND
to promote the importation of Cuban sugarcane-based ethanol should be encouraged.

Contention 4: Impact Framing
Uncertainty is a reason to vote aff – our ability to predict exactly what will happen and adapt is minimal
Kim, 2012 (Dr. Jim Yong, President of the World Bank Group, "Turn Down The heat: why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided", November, World Bank, http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/Turn_Down_the_heat_Why_a_4_degree_centrigrade_warmer_world_must_be_avoided.pdf)

It is my hope that this report shocks us into action. Even for those
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in mind. The World Bank Group will step up to the challenge.

No great power war – interdependence, democracy, deterrence
Robb 2012
Doug, US Navy Lieutenant, "Now Hear This – Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over", May, 5/2012 Lieutenant, US Navy, "", US Naval Institute, http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over-http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over~~
In addition to geopolitical and diplomacy issues, globalization continues to transform the world.
AND
a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.

Err aff on probability – risks of major war are almost ZERO
Fettweis 2006
Christopher, National Security Decision Making Department, US Naval War College, "A Revolution in International Relation Theory: Or, What If Mueller Is Right?" International Studies Review (2006) 8, 677–697  
The obsolescence-of-major-war argument is familiar enough to need little
AND
, perhaps scholars should ask why anyone should believe that it could not. 

Epistemic focus bad our specific truth claims outweigh.
Owen 2002 David, Reader in Political Theory at the University of Southampton, Reorienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning", Millennium: Journal of International Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, http://mil.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/3/653-http://mil.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/31/3/653~~**

The first danger with the philosophical turn is that it has an inbuilt tendency to
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the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

Nuclear war doesn’t cause extinction
Socol 2011
Yehoshua (Ph.D.), an inter-disciplinary physicist, is an expert in electro-optics, high-energy physics and applications, and material science and Moshe Yanovskiy, Jan 2, "Nuclear Proliferation and Democracy", http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/nuclear_proliferation_and_demo.html, CMR
Nuclear proliferation should no longer be treated as an unthinkable nightmare; it is likely
AND
reality will most probably contain fewer nuclear-possessing states than the former.

Miscalc is impossible
Quinlan 2009
(Sir Michael, visiting professor at King’s College London, Permanent Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence and former senior fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, "Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects," Oxford University Press, CMR)
One special form of miscalculation appeared sporadically in the speculations of academic commentators, though
AND
if necessary—that there was no misinterpretation of its conventionally armed launch.