Tournament: texas | Round: 1 | Opponent: Westwood LM | Judge: Jason Courville

Environment Conditions CP

The United States federal government should _ if and only if the Republic of Cuba agrees to implement environmental protections in Cuba.

Conditioning the Embargo on Environmental protection solves the aff - is key to environmental leadership.  Lifting the embargo alone dooms the environment.

Connell 2009 ~Christina, research associate, Council of Hemispheric Affairs (COHA), "The US and Cuba: Destined to be an environmental duo?", http://www.coha.org/the-us-and-cuba-an-environmental-duo/~~
Unlike the U.S., which still has never ratified the Kyoto Protocol,
AND
the invasion of U.S. consumerism may seriously damage the island.

The impact is extinction

DINER  94   Judge Advocate’s General’s Corps of US Army
 ~David N., Military Law Review, Winter, 143 Mil. L. Rev. 161, LN~
No  species  has ever dominated its fellow  species  as man has.  In most cases
AND
wings, ~hu~mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

Tournament: Greenhill | Round: 1 | Opponent: GBS | Judge: Sean Kennedy
Text: The United States federal government should threaten to implement economic sanctions if the government of Venezuela does not  .
Economic engagement fails absent a demand for corruption reform—only the counterplan solves relations in the long-term
Christy 3/15/13 – (Patrick, “Obama Must Stand Up for Democracy in Post-Chavez Venezuela” US News, Senior policy analyst at the Foreign policy Initiative, Available online @ http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blo/world-report/2013/03/15/after-chavez-us-must-encourage-democratic-venezuela)

Economic sanctions work and force Maduro to reform
Halabi ’13 (Sammy Halabi—London School of Economics, co-founder of Global Risk Insights; “Reasons for Optimism in Venezuela”; May 3, 2013; http://globalriskinsights.com/2013/05/03/spring-is-coming-we-should-be-optimistic-about-venezuela/)

Tournament: texas | Round: 2 | Opponent: - | Judge: -
The U.S. is declining and China’s taking their place
Mallen 13 Patricia Rey, International Buisness Times “Latin America Increases Relations With China: What Does That Mean For The US?” http://www.ibtimes.com/latin-america-increases-relations-china-what-does-mean-us-1317981 June 28

As if to confirm the declining
AND
“Very soon, it might be too late.”

US still has dog in fight over Latin America, increased imports, economic dependency
Sol M. Linowitz Forum ’12 (Bi-annual forum to discuss western hemispheric political conditions, hosted by Inter-American Dialogue and affiliates Genaro Arriagada, former minister of the presidency of Chile and ambassador of Chile to the United States, chairman of the Board of Radio Cooperativa and national director of the “NO” Campaign; Sergio Bitar, former Chilean minister of public works under President Michelle Bachelet from 2008 to 2010, minister of education, minister of mining, a senator, president of the Party for Democracy (PPD) on two occasions, and author of numerous books about Chilean politics and international relations; Nora Lustig, former visiting Shapiro professor of international affairs at George Washington University, president and professor of the Department of Economics of the Universidad de las Americas in Mexico, and professor at the Center of Economic Studies at the Colegio de Mexico; Margaret Myers, Director, China and Latin America Program, Inter-American Dialogue, Former China Analyst for US government; Manuel Orozco, chair of US Foreign Service Institute’s division on Central America and the Caribbean, senior researcher at the Institute for the Study of International Migration at Georgetown University, adjunct professor at the School for International Service at American University; “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,” Inter-American Dialogue, April, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

US economic preeminence
AND
Chile and Colombia than it does to Russia.

Increase in US influence in Latin America directly trades off with Chinese influence
Ellis  12
Dr. R. Evan Ellis is a professor of national security studies, modeling, gaming, and simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, with a research focus on Latin America’s relationships with external actors, including China, Russia, and Iran. holds a Ph.D. in political science with a specialization in comparative politics. May 2012- The Inter-American Dialogue - “The United States, ¶ Latin America and China: A “Triangular Relationship”?” http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD8661_China_Triangular0424v2e-may.pdf

At the political level, US engagement
AND
aircraft from the Czech Republic.30

China’s influence in Latin America is key to their soft power
Malik, 06 – PhD in International Relations (Mohan, "China's Growing Involvement in Latin America," 6/12, http://uyghuramerican.org/old/articles/300/1/info@uyghuramerican.org)

China's forays into Latin America are part
AND
intelligence cooperation and arms sales. 

Chinese international influence is an existential impact – it controls every scenario for extinction
Zhang 2012 (Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. “The Rise of China’s Political Softpower” 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm)

As China plays an increasingly significant
AND
it will continue to surprise the world.

Tournament: texas | Round: 2 | Opponent: - | Judge: -

CIR – Clean Tech

Immigration reform key to clean tech

Herman and Smith 10
Richard Herman 26 Robert L. Smith, 2010 (founder of Richard T. Herman 26 Associates, an immigration and business law firm in Cleveland, Ohio, "Why Immigrants Can Drive The Green Economy," http://www.ilw.com/articles/2010,0630-herman.shtm, Accessed 1/24/2013, rwg)

Raymond Spencer, an Australian-born entrepreneur based in Chicago, has a window
AND
for example, were stalled due to U.S. immigration barriers.

Clean tech solves extinction

Klarevas 9 –Louis Klarevas, Professor for Center for Global Affairs @ New York University, 12/15, "Securing American Primacy While Tackling Climate Change: Toward a National Strategy of Greengemony," http://www.huffingtonpost.com/louis-klarevas/securing-american-primacy_b_393223.html

As national leaders from around the world are gathering in Copenhagen, Denmark, to
AND
best approach for achieving this is to promote a national strategy of greengemony.

Tournament: texas | Round: 2 | Opponent: - | Judge: -

CIR – Science Diplo

Only Obama’s PC can ensure a comprehensive overhaul – includes increased H-1B’s

AP 12/12 ("Editorial Roundup: Excerpts from recent editorials in newspapers in the US and abroad", http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/editorial-roundup-excerpts-from-recent-editorials-in-newspapers-in-the-us-and-abroad/2012/12/12/b6108852-447c-11e2-8c8f-fbebf7ccab4e_story.html, CR)

The immigration reform debate is over. The nativists lost.¶ That’s the undeniable conclusion
AND
. On the other are crass appeals to economic and political fears. ...

Key to science diplomacy – solves every impact

Pickering et al. ’10
~Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering served as under secretary of State from 1997 to
AND
WORK WITH THEIR FOREIGN COUNTERPARTS", Baltimore Sun, Feb 9, lexis~
In 1979, a science and technology agreement between the United States and China paved
AND
to a thaw in the Cold War through scientific exchanges, with little government

Tournament: texas | Round: 2 | Opponent: - | Judge: -
Mercosur is strong now, but increased US regional influence breaks it up.
Cruthirds  et al 11 – Assistant Professor at Brownsville, PhD in International Business (Kevin W., “Amalgamation or Dissolution? An Outlook of the Future of Mercosur under EU and US influence”, 9/22/11; http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/European-Journal-Management/272511381.html)

Initially, the U.S. questioned MERCOSUR's
AND
the proposition unworthy of proliferation (Carranza, 2004a).

Mercosur is key to alleviating Argentine trade deficit – that’s an internal link to their public debt.
Osorio 11 – Brazil Correspondent at MLex Market Intelligence, Travel Editor at Mulher Viajante, Freelance writer, journalist at Argentina Independent (Natasha Sa, “Mercosur: An Imperfect Union?”, 11/30/11;  http://www.argentinaindependent.com/currentaffairs/newsfromlatinamerica/mercosur-an-imperfect-union/)
“Academic literatures call it (Mercosur)
AND
integration in the coming years.

Argentine bankruptcy triggers rally-around-the-flag war in Falklands.
Moran 12 – geopolitical and economic forecaster, cooperator with renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, award-winning contributor to the Council on Foreign Relations and BBC, author, Editor-in-Chief of Renaissance Insight, the though-leadership arm of the global investment bank Renaissance Capital (Michael, “Imagine: Argentina Invades Falkland Islands, Brazil Backs Decision”, 4/16/12; http://www.commandposts.com/2012/04/imagine-argentina-invades-falkland-islands-brazil-backs-decision/)
If macroeconomic policy bedevils efforts
AND
Brazil’s backyard will have to be respected.

Escalates to Sino-American war – energy interests.
Sanchez and Paverman 11 – Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, studying geopolitics and military security issues / foreign policy analyst (W. Alex and Lauren, “China and the End of the Monroe Doctrine”, 12/1/11;  http://fpif.org/china_and_the_end_of_the_monroe_doctrine/)
The British firm Rockhopper Exploration was the first company
AND
actors establishing ties to the region.

Tournament: Greenhill | Round: 1 | Opponent: GBS | Judge: Sean Kennedy
The affirmative’s geopolitical imaginary is characterized by a wholly enclosed land space of bounded nation-states. This only serves the interests of status quo power hierarchies through the construction of an inside to be secured against a dangerous outside, excepted from the law Such an order can only be maintained thought he constant policing of the inside and warfare externally.
Vaughn-Williams 9 Nick, IR MA @ university of Warwick IR PhD @ Aberystwyth, “Border Politics: The Limits of Sovereign Power” pg 132-36

And, the construction of the US-Mexico border stabilizes American identity around the racist projection of lawlessness and barbarity onto the Mexican other in need of domination.
Klahn 8, professor at the University of California Chicano/Latino Research Center, 2008 Norma, “The Border: Imagined, Invented or from the Geopolitics of Literature to Nothingness”, Working Paper No.5 Chicano/Latino Research Center, clrc.soe.ucsc.edu/sites/clrcweb/files/sites/default/files/.../05_Klahn.pdf

This construction of civilization around state borders is a colonial artifact. It undergirds the justification for the affirmative’s intervention into Mexico to stabilize, develop and extract resources from the barbaric other.
Slater, Professor of Social and Political Geography at Loughborough University, in ‘4 David, Geopolitics and the Post-colonial Rethinking North–South Relations

Next, bounding nation-states through the enclosure of borders is the control of territory through violence. This production of the space of the state obfuscates always on-going non-state violence and legitimates wars and genocides in the name of state-making.
Neocleous 3 Mark Neocleous is Senior Lecturer in Politics at Brunel University, “Off the Map: On Violence and Cartography”, European Journal of Social Theory 2003 6: 409

The alternative is to begin from the epistemology of the subaltern.
It is impossible to think through the modernity from any other perspective that that of colonial difference. The kritik’s border thinking is a way of starting from the knowledge of those in the exteriority of the modern world order. No alternative can come from within the categories of modernity.
Escobar 2 Arturo, department of anthropology at university of north Carolina chapel hill, ““Worlds and Knowledges Otherwise”: The Latin American modernity/coloniality Research Program”, http://apse.or.cr/webapse/pedago/enint/escobar03.pdf

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 1 | Opponent:  | Judge: 

K – Complexity

Hold the 1AC accountable for the way it has framed existential risk.

The 1AC’s linear logic ignores complexity and paves over interactions between dozens of predictions

Ramalingam et al 2008 (Ben, Senior Research Associate at the Overseas Development Institute,  and Harry jones at ODI, "Exploring the science of complexity" http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/docs/833.pdf)

Concept 4: Nonlinearity5 ’... the darkest corner of science ~is~ the realm of non-linear problems’ (Strogatz, 2003). Outline of the concept Traditional scientific approaches are based on the idea that linear relationships can be identified through data gathering and analysis, and can be used as the basis of ’laws’ of behaviour (Byrne, 1998). Such approaches in the physical sciences have informed the development of social, economic and political science, using broad theories of behaviour to generate hypotheses about causal relations between variables of interest (Homer-Dixon, 1995). However, complexity science suggests that human systems do not work in a simple linear fashion. Feedback processes between interconnected elements and dimensions lead to relationships that see change that is dynamic, nonlinear and unpredictable (Stacey, 1996). Nonlinearity is a direct result of the mutual interdependence between dimensions found in complex systems. In such systems, clear causal relations cannot be traced because of multiple influences. The distinction between linear and nonlinearity is far from trivial. If dynamic nonlinear feedbacks in response to rising greenhouse gases are included in the model used in the Stern Review of Climate Change (cited in Concept 2), for example, the total average cost of climate change rises from 5 to at least 20 of global per capita consumption (HM Treasury, 2006).6 Detailed explanation Vast numbers of naturally occurring systems exhibit nonlinearity. As one thinker has dryly suggested (Stanislaw Ulam, in the 1950s), calling a situation nonlinear is like going to the zoo and talking about all the interesting non-elephant animals you can see there (Campbell et al., 1985): there are as many nonlinear situations as there are non-elephant animals. Linearity describes the proportionality assumed in idealised situations where responses are proportional to forces and causes are proportional to effects (Strogatz, 2003). Linear problems can be broken down into pieces, with each piece analysed separately; finally, all the separate answers can be recombined to give the right answer to the original problem. In a linear system, the whole is exactly equivalent to the sum of the parts. However, linearity is often an approximation of a more complicated reality – most systems only behave linearly if they are close to equilibrium and are not pushed too hard. When a system starts to behave in a nonlinear fashion, ’all bets are off’ (Strogatz, 2003). This is not to suggest that nonlinearity is necessarily a dangerous or unwanted aspect of systems. The biology of life itself is dependent on nonlinearity, as are the laws of ecology. Combination therapy for HIV/AIDS using a cocktail of three drugs works precisely because the immune response and viral dynamics are nonlinear – the three drugs taken in combination are much more effective than the sum of the three taken separately. The nonlinearity concept means that linear assumptions of how social phenomena play out should be questioned. It is important to note that such thinking has only relatively recently been incorporated into the ’hard’ science paradigms and, moreover, is still only starting to shape thinking in the social, economic and political realms. Nonlinearity poses challenges to analysis precisely because such relationships cannot be taken apart – they have to be examined all at once, as a coherent entity. However, the need to develop such ways of thinking cannot be overstated – as one thinker puts it: ’... every major unresolved problem in science – from consciousness to cancer to the collective craziness of the economy, is nonlinear’ (Capra, 1996). 5 It is important to distinguish nonlinearity as used here, which relates to relationships and proportionality, and nonlinearity in terms of sequences of events – one thing following another. 6 Note that the previously cited increase from 5 to 14.4 was due to natural, known feedbacks and does not include non-linear feedbacks 25 Although nonlinearity is a mathematical formulation, it is useful to take the suggestion that what is required is a ’qualitative understanding of ~the~ quantitative’ when attempting to investigate them systematically (Byrne, 1998). Such a qualitative understanding has been furthered by the work of Robert Jervis (1997) on the role of complexity in international relations. Starting with the notion that understanding of social systems has tacitly incorporated linear approaches from Newtonian sciences, Jervis goes on to highlight three common assumptions that need to be challenged in order to take better account of nonlinearity. These assumptions provide a solid basis for investigating nonlinearity. First, it is very common to test ideas and propositions by making comparisons between two situations which are identical except for one variable – referred to as the independent variable. This kind of analysis is usually prefaced with the statement ’holding all other things constant’. However, in a system of interconnected and interrelated parts, with feedback loops, adaptive agents and emergent properties, this is almost impossible, as everything else cannot be held constant and there is no independent variable. Jervis argues that, in such systems, it is impossible to look at ’just one thing’, or to make only one change, hence to look at a situation involving just one change is unrealistic. Secondly, it is often assumed that changes in system output are proportional to changes in input. For example, if it has been assumed that a little foreign aid slightly increases economic growth, then more aid should produce more growth. However, as recent work by ODI and others argues, absorption capacity needs to be taken account – more aid does not necessarily equate to better aid. In complex systems, then, the output is not proportional to the input. Feedback loops and adaptive behaviours and emergent dynamics within the system may mean that the relationship between input and output is a nonlinear one: ’Sometimes even a small amount of the variable can do a great deal of work and then the law of diminishing returns sets in ~a negative feedback process~ … in other cases very little impact is felt until a critical mass is assembled’ (Jervis, 1997). The third and final commonly made assumption of linearity is that the system output that follows from the sum of two different inputs is equal to the sum of the outputs arising from the individual inputs. In other words, the assumption is that if Action A leads to Consequence X and Action B has Consequence Y then Action A plus Action B will have Consequences X plus Y. This frequently does not hold, because the consequences of Action A may depend on the presence or absence of many other factors which may well be affected by B or B’s Consequence (Y). In addition, the sequence in which actions are undertaken may affect the outcome. Example: The growth dynamics model as an alternative to linear regression models Studies of economic growth face methodological problems, the foremost of which is dealing with real world complexity. The standard way of understanding growth assumes, implicitly, that the same model of growth is true for all countries, and that linear relationships of growth are true for all countries. However, linear relationships might not apply in many cases. An example would be a country where moderate trade protection would increase economic growth but closing off the economy completely to international trade would spell economic disaster. Linear growth models imply that the effect of increasing the value of the independent variable would be the same for all countries, regardless of the initial value of that variable or other variables. Therefore, an increase of the tariff rate from 0 to 10 is presumed to generate the same change in the growth rate as a change from 90 to 100. Furthermore, the change from 0 to 10 is assumed to have the same effect in a poor country as in a rich country, in a primary resource exporter as in a manufacturing exporter, and in a country with well developed institutions as in a country with underdeveloped institutions. Despite some efforts to address these issues by relaxing the linear framework and introducing mechanisms to capture nonlinearities and interactions among some variables, this is still a poor way of addressing real world nonlinearity. Econometric research has identified that linear models cannot generally be expected to 26 provide a good approximation of an unknown nonlinear function, and in some cases can lead to serious misestimates (Rodríguez, 2007). Research at Harvard University has focused on the problem of designing a growth strategy in a context of ’radical uncertainty’ about any generalised growth models. They call their method ’growth diagnostics’, in part because it is very similar to the approach taken by medical specialists in identifying the causes of ailments. In such a context, assuming that every country has the same problem is unlikely to be very helpful. The principal idea is to look for clues in the country’s concrete environment about the specific binding constraints on growth. The growth diagnostics exercise asks a set of basic questions that can sequentially rule out possible explanations of the problem. The answers are inherently country-specific and time-specific. The essential method is to identify the key problem to be addressed as the signals that the economy would provide if a particular constraint were the cause of that problem. Implication: Challenge linearity in underlying assumptions Within complex systems, the degree of nonlinearity and relationships between various factors, and the lack of proportionality between inputs and outputs, means that the dynamics of change are highly context-specific. Therefore, if there are assumptions, aggregations and theories about the relations among different aspects of a specific situation, and these are not entirely appropriate when applied to the dynamics of a new local situation, then this perspective is unlikely to lead to a deep understanding of what should be done, and is furthermore unlikely to lead to the hoped-for changes. Nonlinearity implies that, as well as understanding the limitations of a particular model or perspective, it is important to build and improve new models that can provide the sort of information required for the particular task at hand. ’No kind of explanatory representation can suit all kinds of phenomena ... any one diagnosis of ~a~ problem and its solution is necessarily partial’ (Holland, 2000). From this perspective, it is important to tailor to the particular situation one’s perspective on the dynamics of some phenomena. In a complex system, one must examine the complex web of interrelationships and interdependencies among its parts or elements (Flynn Research, 2003). It is important from the outset to understand the association and interaction among variables, rather than assuming that one causes another to change, and to look at how variables interact and feed back into each other over time (Haynes, 2003). Homer-Dixon, cited above, suggests that political scientists use methods that are modelled on the physical sciences, developing broad theories of political behaviour to generate hypotheses about causal relations between variables of interest. These ideas resonate strongly with a recent assessment undertaken for Sida on the use of the log frame (Bakewell and Garbutt, 2005), highlighting some of the advantages and disadvantages in a way which is particularly pertinent for this paper. In the international aid world, much of programme planning and development is undertaken using a set of methods and tools called the logical framework. For most of the study respondents, the advantage of logical frameworks was that they force people to think carefully through what they are planning to do, and to consider in a systematic fashion how proposed activities might contribute to the desired goal through delivering outputs and outcomes. As a result, many see the log frame as a useful way of encouraging clear thinking. However, these positive aspects were offset by the almost universal complaint that the log frame rests on a very linear logic, which suggests that if Activity A is done, Output B will result, leading to Outcome C and Impact D. This linear idea of cause and effect is profoundly ill-at-ease with the implications of complexity science and, indeed, the experiences of many development practitioners. The authors of the study sum up the problems of the log frame in a way that is key to our discussion of complexity: ’Unfortunately (for the logical framework approach at least) we are not working with such a selfcontained system and there are so many factors involved which lie beyond the scope of the 27 planned initiative that will change the way things work. Although the LFA makes some attempt to capture these through the consideration of the risks and assumptions, these are limited by the imagination and experience of those involved. As a result the LFA tends to be one-dimensional and fails to reflect the messy realities facing development actors’ (Bakewell and Garbutt, 2005). Nonlinearity also has clear implications for the increased interest in randomised control trials (RCTs). While the implications of nonlinearity for techniques and tools such as the log frame and RCTs are increasingly well understood by many actors within the aid system, the answer to the deeper question as to whether incorporation of nonlinearity will be feasible, given the pressure on donors to justify aid budgets while having to deal with a reducing headcount, is less clear. The distinction between linearity and nonlinearity can be seen in as providing a theoretical underpinning of the frequently cited tension between upward accountability and learning. It also provides a means to re-frame the debate. If the two goals of accountability and learning are also about different mindsets, the degree to which an appropriate balance can be struck – without exploring these mindsets and the assumptions on which they are based – is open to question. Concept 5: Sensitivity to initial conditions Outline of the concept The behaviours of complex systems are sensitive to their initial conditions. Simply, this means that two complex systems that are initially very close together in terms of their various elements and dimensions can end up in distinctly different places. This comes from nonlinearity of relationships – where changes are not proportional, small changes in any one of the elements can result in large changes regarding the phenomenon of interest. Detailed explanation Imagine a small ball dropped onto the edge of a razor blade, as shown in the first image in Figure 4 below. The ball can strike the blade in such a way that it can go off to the left (centre image) or to the right (right-hand image). The condition that will determine whether the ball goes to the left or right is minute. If the ball were initially held centred over the blade (as in the first image), a prediction of which direction the ball would bounce would be impossible to make with certainty. A very slight change in the initial conditions of the ball can result in falling to the right or left of the blade. Figure 4: Sensitivity to initial conditions – ball striking razor blade Source: http://www.schuelers.com/ChaosPsyche/part_1_14.htm. The concept of phase space (Concept 6) allows a more precise understanding of initial conditions. Phase space allows for the analysis of the evolution of systems by considering the evolution process as a sequence of states in time (Rosen, 1991). A state is the position of the system in its phase space at a given time. At any time, the system’s state can be seen as the initial conditions for whatever processes follow. The sensitive dependence on initial conditions, in phase space terms, means that the position of a system in its phase space at a particular moment will have an influence on its future evolution. The interactions that are taking place at any moment in time have evolved from a previous moment in time, that is, all interactions are contingent on an historical process. Put simply, history matters in complex systems. 28 The infamous butterfly effect was a metaphor developed to illustrate this idea in the context of the weather. Edward Lorenz (1972), a meteorologist, used the metaphor of a flapping wing of a butterfly to explain how a minute difference in the initial condition of a weather system leads to a chain of events producing large-scale differences in weather patterns, such as the occurrence of a tornado where there was none before. As more recent thinkers have put it, in relation to complex systems in general, an initial uncertainty in measurement of the state of a system: ’… however small, inevitably grow~s~ so large that long-range prediction becomes impossible … even the most gentle, unaccounted-for perturbation can produce, in short order, abject failure of prediction’ (Peak and Frame, 1998). A large proportion of complex systems are prone to exhibiting the butterfly effect, so much so that some have defined complex behaviour as occurring where the butterfly effect is present (ibid). As no two situations will be exactly alike, the phenomenon will inevitably occur in many settings. As with nonlinearity, many have not used formal models to demonstrate the butterfly effect, but instead have tried to develop a qualitative understanding of the likely quantitative nature of real life situations. Sensitivity to initial conditions also means that ’the generalisation of good practice ~between contexts~ begins to look fragile’ (Haynes, 2003) because initial conditions are never exactly the same, and because the complexity and nonlinearity of behaviour make it extremely difficult to separate the contributions to overall behaviour that individual factors have. Any notion of ’good practice’ requires a detailed local knowledge to understand why the practice in question was good. This concept highlights the importance of understanding what can be forecast in complex systems to what level of certainty, as well as what is comparable across complex systems. It reinforces the point that both of these areas are necessarily restricted by the perspective of the observer. Sensitive dependence on initial conditions suggests that no single perspective can capture all there is to know about a system, that it may be wise to look in detail at how appropriate our solution to a problem is, and that it may be better to work with inevitable uncertainty rather than plan based on flimsy or hopeful predictions. This may mean, to take the example of predictability, that the success of a nation may be best explained not by its population’s virtues, its natural resources and its government’s skills, but rather simply by the position it took in the past, with small historical advantages leading to much bigger advantages later. Another example is how socioeconomic policy can result in a separation of neighbourhoods, driving a large gap between the rich and the poor so that, in short order, a gulf in wealth can result between two families who once had similar wealth (Byrne and Rogers, 1996). This is closely related to the notion of ’path dependence’, which is the idea that many alternatives are possible at some stages of a system’s development, but once one of these alternatives gains the upper hand, it becomes ’locked in’ and it is not possible to go to any of the previous available alternatives. For example, ’… many cities developed where and how they did not because of the "natural advantages" we are so quick to detect after the fact, but because their establishment set off self-reinforcing expectations and behaviours’ (Cronon, cited in Jervis, 1997). In economic development, the term ’path dependence’ is used to describe how standards which are first-to-market can become entrenched ’lock ins’ - such as the QWERTY layout in typewriters still used in computer keyboards (David, 2000). In certain situations, positive feedbacks leading from a small change can lead to such irreversible path dependence (Urry, 2003). Urry gives the example of irreversibility across an entire industry or sector, whereby through sensitive dependence on initial conditions, feedback can set in motion institutional patterns that are hard or impossible to reverse. He cites the example of the domination of steel and petroleum-based fuel models, developed in the late 29 19th century, which have come to dominate over other fuel alternatives, especially steam and electric, which were at the time preferable. The concept of path dependence has received some criticism from exponents of complexity science, because it has imported into economics the view that minor initial perturbations are important while grafting this onto an underlying theory that still assumes that there are a finite number of stable and alternative end-states, one of which will arise based on the particular initial conditions. As will be explained in Concept 7 on attractors and chaos, this is not always the case in complex systems (Margolis and Liebowitz, 1998).  Example: Sensitive dependence on initial conditions and economic growth Economists have generally identified sensitive dependence on initial conditions as one of the important features of the growth process – that is, what eventually happens to an economy depends greatly on the point of departure. There is mounting evidence that large qualitative differences in outcomes can arise from small (and perhaps accidental) differences in initial conditions or events (Hurwicz, 1995). In other words, the scope for and the direction and magnitude of change that a society can undertake depend critically on its prevailing objective conditions and the constellation of sociopolitical and institutional factors that have shaped these conditions. For specific economies, the initial conditions affecting economic growth include levels of per capita income; the development of human capital; the natural resource base; the levels and structure of production; the degree of the economy’s openness and its form of integration into the world system; the development of physical infrastructure; and institutional variables such as governance, land tenure and property rights. One might add here the nature of colonial rule and the institutional arrangements it bequeathed the former colonies, the decolonisation process, and the economic interests and policies of the erstwhile colonial masters. Wrongly specifying these initial conditions can undermine policy initiatives. Government polices are not simply a matter of choice made without historical or socioeconomic preconditions. Further, a sensitive appreciation of the differences and similarities in the initial conditions is important if one is to avoid some of the invidious comparisons one runs into today and the naive voluntarism that policymakers exhibit when they declare that their particular country is about to become the ’new tiger’ of Africa. Such comparisons and self-description actually make the process of learning from others more costly because they start the planning process off on a wrong foot (Mkandawire and Soludo, 1999). Implication: Rethink the scope of learning and the purpose of planning in an uncertain world Sensitivity to initial conditions suggests that there are inevitably degrees of non-comparability across, and unpredictability within, complex systems. Some have argued that this implies that: ’… the map to the future cannot be drawn in advance. We cannot know enough to set forth a meaningful vision or plan productively’ (Tetenbaum, 1998). The general implications for development theory and practice have been highlighted by a previous ODI working paper on participatory approaches, which suggests that this implies the notion of development as planned change is paradoxical. To quote directly, ’… perfect planning would imply perfect knowledge of the future, which in turn would imply a totally deterministic universe in which planning would not make a difference’ (Geyer, cited in Sellamna, 1999). Sellamna goes on: ’For this reason, development planning should abandon prescriptive, goal-oriented decision making and prediction about future states and focus instead on understanding the dynamics of 30 change and promoting a collective learning framework through which concerned stakeholders can constantly, through dialogue, express their respective interests and reach consensus.’ With regards to learning, this poses profound issues for the transferability of ’best practice’, a concept that has taken on increasing meaning within the development sector since the rise of knowledge management and organisational learning strategies (Ramalingam, 2005). While it is possible that, for example, an understanding of the interplay of factors driving urban change in the Philippines may be relevant for analysis of urban change in Guatemala, this is not necessarily the case. The sensitivity to initial conditions gives us a strong reason to suppose that, even if we have a generally useful perspective on urban environments, this may entirely fail to capture the key features of the next situation we look at. This means that the search for ’best practices’ may need to be replaced by the search for ’good principles’. Some have suggested that the most appropriate way to bring the principles of effective approaches from one context to another is for ’… development workers to become facilitators … enabling representatives of other communities … to see first hand what in the successful project they would wish to replicate’ (Breslin, 2004). Moving onto planning, to say that prediction of any kind is impossible may be overstating the case. Complexity does suggest that, in certain kinds of systems, future events cannot be forecasted to a useful level of probability and that, from certain perspectives, it is not possible to offer any firm prediction of the way the future will pan out on certain timescales. However, in other systems, future events can be foreseen in a helpful manner. For example, Geyer (2006) suggests that, with political dynamics, it is fairly safe to predict the short-term dynamics of basic power resources and political structures and that, therefore, there is decent scope for forecasting voting and decision outcomes of policy. On the other hand, examining party and institutional dynamics becomes more difficult, and grasping the potential shifts in contested political and social debates is even harder, while the longterm development of political dynamics is effectively characterised by disorder, as far as our ability to predict is concerned. It is important to clarify that certain levels of uncertainty are unavoidable when looking into the future. Complexity science suggests that it is important to identify and analyse these levels of unpredictability as part of the nature of the systems with which we work, and not treat uncertainty as in some way ’unscientific’ or embarrassing. Rather than rejecting planning outright, there is a need to rethink the purpose and principles of planning. This has two key strands. First, it is necessary to incorporate an acceptance of the inherent levels of uncertainty into planning. The requirement for a certain level of detail in understanding future events should be balanced with the understanding that both simple and intricate processes carry uncertainty of prediction. While improving one’s models of change and analyses of facets of a situation may be worthwhile, it is just as important and often more practical to work with a realistic understanding of this uncertainty and build a level of flexibility and adaptability into projects, allowing for greater resilience. It has been argued that development projects have ’fallen under the enchantment of ~delivering~ clear, specific, measurable outcomes’ (Westley et al., 2006). In many cases, this could be unrealistic, ineffective or even counterproductive; it is uncertain whether valuable social outcomes could be planned in terms of a specific series of outputs, and it is unclear why it is more productive to be able to hold agencies strictly accountable to promises at the expense of their promises delivering real results. This resonates with critiques of the log frame approach cited earlier, which argue that the adoption of the log frame as a central tool in effect and impact evaluations assumes higher powers of foresight than in fact is the case (Gasper, 2000). What is needed is higher levels of flexibility in the funding of international aid work, involving less stringent ’targets’ and requirements from donors. The role of M26E would be shifted to value learning from unexpected outcomes. This is at the heart of the participatory approach to M26E developed by IDRC called outcome mapping. 31 Second, the way organisations look into the future should be adjusted by taking a more systematic and realistic view of what the future can hold: ’A single vision to serve as an intended organisational future … is a thoroughly bad idea … not that the long term is dismissed as an effective irrelevance, ~instead we need a~ refocusing: rather than establish a future target and work back to what we do now to achieve it, the sequence is reversed. We should concentrate on the significant issues which need to be handled in the short term, and ensure that the debate about their long-term consequences is lively and engaged’ (Rosenhead, 2001). What is needed is a ’pragmatic balance between present concerns and future potentialities’ (ibid); this means that ongoing systematic thinking about the future is an important task for any organisation working in development or humanitarian aid. Foresight is ’the ability to create and maintain viable forward views and to use these in organisationally useful ways’ (Slaughter, 2003), and futures techniques, such as driver analysis or scenario planning, are suitable for this task. Scenario planning constructs a number of possible futures, in order to produce decisions and policies that are robust under a variety of feasible circumstances. This encourages a move away from looking for ’optimal’ policies or strategies: ’any strategy can only be optimum under certain conditions’ and ’when those conditions change, the strategy may no longer be optimal’ (Mittleton-Kelly, 2003), so it may be preferable to produce strategies that are robust and insensitive to future variability rather than optimal for one possible future scenario. Path dependence and ’lock ins’ are also important to consider in the context of the practices of international aid agencies. The widespread use of the logical framework approach, despite the often serious critiques, is a clear example of path dependence at play. In fact, it could be argued that linearity has a ’lock in’ when it comes to the thought processes and approaches of international agencies. How ’lock ins’ may be addressed in specific agency contexts is touched upon in Concept 7 on attractors and chaos  Concept 6: Phase space and attractors Outline of the concept The dimensions of any system can be mapped using a concept called phase space, also described as the ’space of the possible’ (Cohen and Stewart, 1995).7 For any system, the ’space of the possible’ is developed by identifying all the dimensions that are relevant to understanding the system, then determining the possible values that these dimensions can take (Romenska, 2006). This ’space of the possible’ is then represented in either graphical or tabular form. In natural sciences, the prevalence of time-series data means that the phase space can be represented as a graphical map of all of the relevant dimensions and their values. In social scientific thinking, tables of data can be used to apply the same principles. The phase space of a system is literally the set of all the possible states – or phases – that the system can occupy. Phase space is particularly useful as a way to describe complex systems because it does not seek to establish known relationships between selected variables, but instead attempts to shed light on the overall shape of the system by looking at the patterns apparent when looking across all of the key dimensions. This resonates with a key point raised in Concept 1 – more may be learned about complex systems by trying to understand the important patterns of interaction and association across different elements and dimensions of such systems (Haynes, 2003). Phase space can be used to enable this kind of learning. By creating such a map of a system, it is possible to characterise how that system changes over time and the constraints that exist to change in the system (Musters et al., 1998). 7 Phase space is often used interchangeably with the phrase ’state space’. 32 Detailed explanation The dimensions of a complex system mutually influence each other, leading to an intricate intertwining (Mittleton-Kelly, 2003) of these relationships and system behaviours to degrees of nonlinearity and unpredictability. Because of the challenges involved in analysing such systems, scientists studying complex systems have made use of a mathematical tool called phase space, which allows data relating to the dimensions of a system to be mapped rather than solved (Capra, 1996). Put simply, phase space is a visual way of representing information about the dimensions of a system. Rather than a graph, which attempts to show the relationships between specific chosen dimensions, phase space maps the possible values of each dimension of the system (akin to drawing the axes of a graph). This is the space within which a complex system displays its behaviour. Byrne gives the example of a city as a complex system (Byrne, 2006). He describes how the cities are complex problems in that they present situations where a range of variables are interacting simultaneously and in interconnected ways. He cites the specific example of Leicester, a city in the UK that grew from a small market town of 2,000 people in the 11th century to a city of 280,000 in 2001. Using the Census data from 2001, he shows that Leicester could be seen as a complex urban system made up of the following variables:

The Paradox of Risk results in intervention and dissolves rational risk calculus – probability-times-magnitude framing makes the probability of every infinite impact register as infinite

Kessler ’8  ~Oliver Kessler, Sociology at University of Bielefeld,   "From Insecurity to Uncertainty:  Risk and the Paradox of Security Politics" Alternatives  33 (2008), 211-232~ 

The problem of the second method is that it is very difficult to  "calculate
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prevail than in situations where security problems can be assessed with relative certainty.   

That impact framing exacerbates the saturation of apocalyptic scenario-planning – results in public disaffection and elite control

de Goede 2k9. ~Marieke de Goede, Department of European Studies at the University of Amsterdam with Samuel Randals, Department of Geography at the University College London  "Precaution, preemption: arts and technologies of the actionable future."  Environment and Planning. 27: . pp.  859-878~

Politics We have argued that preemption in contemporary security practice, and precaution in contemporary
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has to be cultivated that is all too often  evacuated from media sensationalism. 

We control the direction of their education claims — their form of scholarship paves over clashes of context and assumptions, transforming 1AC research into vacuous mush.

Berube 2k (David M, Associate Professor of Speech Communication and Director of Debate at the University of South Carolina. Contemporary Argumentation and Debate 21: 53-73 http://www.cedadebate.org/CAD/index.php/CAD/article/viewFile/248/232)

The dead ends checked the authenticity of the extended claims by debunking especially fanciful hypotheses
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, and all political acts need to be scrutinized with a critical lens.

Instead of weighing plan in a vacuum, reflect on the 1AC as a Flow of Communication. Your ballot determines the effects of debate as a communicative activity prior to considering the 1AC impacts. Voting negative constitutes a framework attuned to the complex interactions between assembled predictive claims.

Kinsella 2010 (William J, Assoc Prof Communication at NC State University, "Risk communication, phenomenology, and the limits of representation" Catalan Journal of Communication 26 Cultural Studies 2 (2) pp. 267–276
Despite movements towards more dialogic and rhetorical models, the field  of risk communication remains
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constitute not only risks,  but also those who take and bear risks.

Tournament: Greenhill | Round: 1 | Opponent: GBS | Judge: Sean Kennedy
Linking Drug Cartels and Terrorism in the concept of Narcoterrorism is a means to depoliticize the political – it denies the ideology of the groups and reinforces the political order of the state.
Maskaliunaite 2002 - PhD candidate at Central European University (CEU) in Budapest Asta Defining Terrorism in the Political and Academic Discourse Baltic Defense Review, No 8 vol 2, JSTOR

Narcoterror Representations justify violent American dominance – it is used to deny political legitimacy to other states
Knopf  2007- prof of Cultural Studies at University of Greifswald Kerstin Institute of British and Visiting Professor of North American Literature and Cultural Studies at the Institute of English, 2007, http://www2.brandonu.ca/library/CJNS/27.2/03knopf.pdf, Accessed 8/1/13 

Terrorism is a symbolic Political act that challenges globalization – it appropriates mass media and communication against global goals – ignoring is fosters global conflict
Larsen, 2006,  prof of Social Sciences at the University of Ottawa, Canada, Mike, "Talking About Terrorism:An Analysis Of Official Canadian Insecurity Narratives In The Post-September 11 Context", Internet Journal of Criminology, www.internetjournalofcriminology.com, ----

The Affirmative won’t listen to Drug cartels engage in Narco Propaganda – we must examine the Political and Ideological contexts of Narco Discourse, because they represent the only institutions in many places in Mexico
Campbell 2012- Professor of Anthropology from the University of Wisconsin, Howard, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, “Narco-Propaganda in the Mexican "Drug War": An Anthropological Perspective,” Latin American Perspectives and Sage Publications, 2012, http://lap.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/early/2012/04/30/0094582X12443519.full.pdf+html, Accessed 8/1/13

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 1 | Opponent:  | Judge: 

K – Rasch

The affirmative purports to stand against war, but they do so in the name of humanity, security, rights and justice - They betray a universalism which can only result in imperialism and more war, turning the aff.

Rasch 2000 (William. "Conflict as a Vocation: Carl Schmitt and the Possibility of Politics." Theory Culture Society 17.1)

Schmitt would recognize these as the right questions to ask, would recognize them,
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was an unjust war, except of course that waged by the enemy?"

Our alternative is to recognize the necessity of the opposition. Sovereignty necessarily functions in exception to the law. This exception is necessary to avoid the universal violence of the Law and the affirmative.

Rasch 2000 (William. "Conflict as a Vocation: Carl Schmitt and the Possibility of Politics." Theory Culture Society 17.1)

It is not difficult to see that the polemical elevation of sovereignty over the rule
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Politics exists, in other words, because the just society does not.

Tournament: Greenhill | Round: 1 | Opponent: GBS | Judge: Sean Kennedy
The aff’s call for America to be the mediator of the world is just the call of neoconservative hacks on Capitol Hill mobilizing populations against the demonized international threat posed against American imperialism, creating a self-perpetuating mode of thinking that makes resistance to that Exceptionalism impossible.
William V. Spanos, Distinguished Professor of English and comparative literature at Binghamton University, Binghamton, New York, founder and editor of the critical journal boundary, Ph.D from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, 2008, “American Exceptionalism in the Age of Globalization: The Specter of Vietnam,” pp. 4-6 hhs-tt

This accommodational strategy of … attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.9

Security driven economic engagement with Latin America authorizes international violence while criminalizing dissent – the 1AC exhibits a discourse of security that provides the rationale for global domination.
Figueredo 7 Darío Salinas, Professor in the Graduate Program in Social Sciences at the Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico City, specialist in Latin American Studies at the CONACYT National System of Researchers, Latin American Perspectives, Issue 152, Vol. 34 No. 1, January, “Hegemony in the Coordinates of U.S. Policy: Implications for Latin America,” Translated by Marlene Medrano, p. 95-98

The mobilization of an external threat, … with the capacity to produce dynamics that unbalance the strategic perspective of regional stability.

Although an American exceptionalist ontology claims invincibility, Vietnam ruptured the American national identity – America’s mission in the global wilderness self-destructed as we occupied a world that resisted consenting to the “truth” of liberal capitalist democracy. The forced forgetting of being has led us to a point where American exceptionalism will destroy the planet
William V. Spanos, Distinguished Professor of English and comparative literature at Binghamton University, Binghamton, New York, founder and editor of the critical journal boundary, Ph.D from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, 2005, “American Exceptionalism in the Age of Globalization: The Specter of Vietnam,” 2008, pp. ix-x hhs-tt

In this book I contend that the consequence … the very idea of America.

Thus, our alternative: silence for 10 seconds

Know what these alt cards are actually talking about before ever reading this K please

Voting negative isn’t complicity with oppression – it is an act of standing in silence against the imperial system. Any attempt to fix the Exceptionalist metaphysics quickly becomes a way to “heal the wound” of past failures – no matter how revolutionary, no matter how extreme, absent a silence to imperialism, imperialism becomes anew.
William V. Spanos, Distinguished Professor of English and comparative literature at Binghamton University, Binghamton, New York, founder and editor of the critical journal boundary, Ph.D from the University of Wisconsin–Madison,  “Pierre’s Extraordinary Emergency: Melville and “the Voice of Silence,” Part 2,” Duke University Press, boundary 2 28.3, 2001, pp. 144-151, muse  hhs-tt

This, I think, against the New Americanist … learning to get a “Voice out of Silence.” 

In order for our politics to be successful, we must break free of the confines instituted by the state – we must move beyond the stranglehold that is American Exceptionalism.  Our politics is one of disrupting the static and constantly invoking a multiplicity of change
William V. Spanos, Distinguished Professor of English and comparative literature at Binghamton University, Binghamton, New York, founder and editor of the critical journal boundary, Ph.D from the University of Wisconsin–Madison, 2008, “American Exceptionalism in the Age of Globalization: The Specter of Vietnam,” pp. 52-53 

It is, then, “a barbarian” philosophy.28 (my … “new humanism” in Frantz Fanon’s proleptic phrase.32

Tournament: texas | Round: 2 | Opponent: - | Judge: -
The term terror is a rhetorical tool to paper over the violence of US militarism that occurs on a daily basis. The terror expert industry is not academic but political—view their evidence with skepticism.
Greenwald 8/15/12 (Glenn, Glenn Greenwald is a former Constitutional and civil rights litigator and is the author of three New York Times Bestselling books: two on the Bush administration's executive power and foreign policy abuses, and his latest book, With Liberty and Justice for Some, an indictment of America's¶ two-tiered system of justice. Greenwald was named by The Atlantic as one of the 25 most influential political commentators in the nation. He is the recipient of the first annual I.F. Stone Award for Independent Journalism, and is the winner of the 2010 Online Journalism Association Award for his investigative work on the arrest and oppressive detention of Bradley Manning. “The sham “terrorism expert” industry”, http://www.salon.com/2012/08/15/the_sham_terrorism_expert_industry/) 

But the most pernicious
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as are those who profit from and within it.

Tournament: texas | Round: 1 | Opponent: Westwood LM | Judge: Jason Courville

Zupancic

The Affirmative regurgitates past pain and suffering to show them as a moral option in an immoral world. This action is a stimulant used to mask real pain with surplus enjoyment, creating charred men where we feel but are not alive.

Zupancic 3 ~alenka, "The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two," 47-49~
It might seem that the notion of the ascetic ideal, as well as Nietzsche’s
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irritating drug" or "excitation-raiser," a stimulant. The ascetic
ideal, writes Nietzsche, is employed to produce orgies of feeling) 2 It
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it is that it mobilizes and motivates souls, and provides them with enjoyment

The desire to mask suffering with enjoyment is the ascetic ideal par excellence. The aff’s morals are employed to make one feel accomplished by their personal restraints.

Zupancic 3 ~alenka, "The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two," 47-49~
The ascetic ideal places the Real of pleasure in enjoyment (and posits enjoyment of
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neurosis, in which Freud recognizes the paradigm of "religious" thinking.  

Our alternative is to forget about the suffering in the 1ac. the pain cited by the 1ac is only attended to by the memory of the 1ac to further asceticism, only a break away from these memories solves.

Zupancic 3 ~alenka, "The Shortest Shadow: Nietzsche’s Philosophy of the Two," 57-60~

This is perhaps the moment to examine in more detail what Nietzschean "forgetting"
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—precisely through its "closure"—the possibility of a new one.