Tournament: Greenhill | Round: 4 | Opponent: Bronx Law AL | Judge: Toby Whisenhunt
1AC—Advantage

Contention one is the advantage

The United States embargo on Cuba destroys the self-determination of the Cuban people and represents the culmination of a cycle of domination and oppression of Latin America
Slater 04 – David Slater is Professor of Social and Political Geography at Loughborough University. He is the author of Territory and State Power in Latin America (1989), co-editor of The American Century (1999) and an editor of the journal Political Geography. (“Geopolitics and the Post-colonial: Rethinking North–South Relations”, 2004, pp. 189-195, http://translate-english-indonesia.com/download/International20Relations/Geopolitics20and20Poscolonial.pdf#page=181)

State Sovereignties and the Persistence of North/South Differences …One thematic exemplification of this problem concerns the US policy of ‘certification’ in relation to the ‘war on drugs’.

This is an example of how the United States’ relationship with Cuba has been historically informed by imperialism and an obsession with US interests above all else—this relies on a dual conception of the United States vis-a-vis all that oppose it
Bernell 94 – David Bernell is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Oregon State University, where he teaches and conducts research on topics involving US energy policy, international relations, United States foreign policy, and international political economy. Dr. Bernell holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in Political Science from John Hopkins University. (“The Curious Case of Cuba in American Foreign Policy”, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 36.2, Summer 1994, JSTOR)
THE US view of its relationship with….This would represent the ultimate failure of United States policy toward Cuba. 

This system of power and domination requires certain bodies be marked out and destroyed, resulting in worse and worse atrocities
Agathangelou et al 08 – Anna is a Professor of PoliSci at York. (“Intimate Investments: Homonormativity, Global Lockdown, and the Seductions of Empire”, Radical History Review, pdf)

To (re)consolidate itself, empire requires…. do not even merit mention or attention.17

The embargo has also inflicted terrible suffering on the Cuban people in the name of human rights
Coll 07 – Alberto is a Professor of Law and President of the International Human Rights Law Institute at the DePaul College of Law. (“Harming Human Rights in the Name of Promoting Them: the Case of the Cuban Embargo”, 2007, 12 UCLA Journal of International Law and Foreign Affairs 199)

III. THE EMBARGO'S EFFECTS ON HUMAN RIGHTS IN CUBA …..Thus, the embargo is the most powerful political cover under which the Cuban government repeatedly justifies its unwillingness to broaden the scope of individual civil and political liberties on the island.
You should prioritize the prevention of these forms of violence—a crisis-based politics fails to change militaristic violence and causes endless war
Cuomo 1996 – PhD, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Philosophy, University of Cincinnati. (Chris, Hypatia Fall 1996. Vol. 11, Issue 3, pg 30)

In "Gender and `Postmodern' War," Robin Schott introduces some of the ways in which war is currently best seen not as an event but as a presence (Schott 1995). …..distort moral judgement in the face of what appears to be the inevitability of war and militarism.

1AC—Advocacy

Harrison and I advocate that there should not be an economic embargo on the Republic of Cuba. 

1AC—Solvency

Contention two is complexity

We know we’re not Cuban; neither Harrison  nor I have ever had to miss a meal because our country is physically unable to import enough food. But that is precisely the point—identities are fluid and understanding other subjectivities is critical to broader social change
Bhambra 10—U Warwick—AND—Victoria Margree—School of Humanities, U Brighton (Identity Politics and the Need for a ‘Tomorrow’, http://www.academia.edu/471824/Identity_Politics_and_the_Need_for_a_Tomorrow_)

We suggest that alternative models of identity and community are required from those put forward by essentialist theories, and that these are offered by the work of two theorists, Satya Mohanty and Lynn Hankinson Nelson. …..As such, the communities that enable identity should not be conceived of as “imagined” since they are produced by very real actions, practices and projects.
Only a systems-level approach can resolve complex social relations like the effect of the embargo on Cuba
Hendrick 09 – Diane Hendrick is an Associate Representative in Peace and Disarmament at the Quaker United Nations Office. Diane has a First in Peace Studies from Bradford University, an MPhil in Development Studies from the Institute of Development Studies at Sussex University and a PhD in Conflict Resolution also from Bradford University. (“Complexity Theory and Conflict Transformation: An Exploration of Potential and Implications”, June 2009, http://www.beyondintractability.org/bi_affiliated_projects/dsap/publications/complexity-theory-transformation-hendrick.pdf)
Complexity theory in the natural sciences has brought fresh insight into the nature and working of complex systems and some have hoped that applying this theory to social systems…….. simple social interactions over time tend to promote the emergence of public opinion, altruistic values and other group level properties (e.g. (Axelrod, 1984) (Nowak, 1990)). They posit an application at an intrapersonal level where spontaneous self-organisation of cognitive and affective elements into higher order structures has been revealed in experimental work on social judgment (Vallacher, 1994) and action identification (Vallacher, 1998).
The more specific the scenario, the less likely
Eliezer Yudkowsky, 8/31/2006. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence  Palo Alto, CA. “Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks,” Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic, singinst.org/upload/cognitive-biases.pdf.

The conjunction fallacy similarly applies to futurological forecasts. ……..discussed in this book - or some other cause which none of us foresaw. Yet for a futurist, disjunctions make for an awkward and unpoetic-sounding prophecy.
Cost-benefit analysis is inevitable, but making decisions based on probability instead of inflating impacts is critical
Sunstein 02 – Cass is Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago, Law School and Department of Political Science. (“Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law”, 9/23/2002, http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/112-1/SunsteinFINAL.pdf)

If someone is predisposed to be worried, degrees of unlikeliness seem to provide no comfort, …….can display insensitivity to the issue of probability, especially when emotions are intensely engaged. Third, and most important, the demand for legal intervention can be greatly affected by probability neglect, so that government may end up engaging in extensive regulation precisely because intense emotional reactions are making people relatively insensitive to the (low) probability that the relevant dangers will ever come to fruition.
War won’t happen—nuclear weapons and common interests
Deudney and Ikenberry 09 Daniel, Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins, John, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, The Myth of the Autocratic Revival :Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb

This bleak outlook is based on an exaggeration of recent developments and ignores powerful countervailing factors and forces. Indeed, contrary to what the revivalists describe, the most striking features of the contemporary international landscape are the intensification of economic globalization, thickening institutions, and shared problems of interdependence. The overall structure of the international system today is quite unlike that of the nineteenth century. Compared to older orders………., the conditions of the twenty-first century point to the renewed value of international integration and cooperation.

Tournament: Harvard | Round: 2 | Opponent: Connally HK | Judge: Leandra Lopez

Advantage 1 is Relations

Energy cooperation facilitates a sustainable partnership – only a holistic commitment solves

Reyes 13  ~JD, member of the USA Today Board of Contributors
(Raul, April, "Opinion: President Obama has the chance to improve US/Mexico relations," http://nbclatino.com/2013/04/29/opinion-president-obama-has-the-chance-to-improve-usmexico-relations/)//BB~~**

Obama will arrive in Mexico with good and bad news.  On the positive side
AND
foreign policy with Mexico based on its potential, not on its problems.

Energy cooperation stems security concerns and strengthens the Mexican American partnership – this is key to both countries economies

Miller and DeLeon 9 ~*Stephanie, consultant on U.S.-Latin America relations and was formerly the Research Associate for the Americas Project on the National Security Team. Born in Venezuela with family from Colombia, Miller earned her degree from Duke University in International Comparative Studies with a focus on Latin America. She currently lives in Bogotá, Colombia, Rudy, Senior Vice President of National Security and International Policy at American Progress¶ ("Transcending the Rio Grande," http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/04/pdf/mexico.pdf)//BB-http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/04/pdf/mexico.pdf)//BB**~~ 

The U.S.-Mexico relationship is ready for renewed collaboration on a range
AND
one of the United States’ most important and strategic allies in the hemisphere.

SEQUENCING is vital – CLIMATE cooperation FIRST spills over to the rest of relations

Donnelly 10 – Program Associate, Mexico Institute @ Wilson Center¶ (Robert, "U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on Renewable Energy: Building a Green Agenda," http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-mexico-cooperation-renewable-energy-building-green-agenda)//BB**

Discussant Johanna Mendelson Forman stressed the linkages connecting climate change, energy, and economic
AND
S. companies suffer from a lack of adequate export-import financing.

Only Obama solves – reverses Anti-US sentiment throughout Latin America

Valencia 13 - New York-based political analyst and is a contributing writer for Global Voices Online
(Robert, "U.S. and Latin America: Economic Cooperation without Militarization?," http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/05/20/us-and-latin-america-economic-cooperation-without-militarization)//BB**

In May, President Barack Obama visited Mexico and Costa Rica and vowed to strengthen
AND
Latin American countries will forge ahead with economic and security integration amongst themselves.

US-Mexico climate cooperation prevents Latin skirmishes from escalating to war

Barry 13 – senior policy analyst at the Center for International Policy, where he directs the TransBorder project, he specializes in immigration policy, homeland security, border security and the outsourcing of national security, has authored or co-authored more than twenty books on Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, food aid, the United Nations, free trade and U.S. foreign policy¶ (Tom, "Changing Perspectives on US-Mexico Relations," http://truth-out.org/news/item/16221-changing-perspectives-on-us-mexico-relations)//BB**

It’s unfortunate that the two presidents chose to hold their May 2-3 summit
AND
and part of the larger North American community with shared interests and responsibilities.

Absent cooperation – Latin American conflict will go global

Rochin 94 – Professor of Political Science¶ (James, Professor of Political Science at Okanagan University College, Discovering the Americas: the evolution of Canadian foreign policy towards Latin America, pp. 130-131)BB

While there were economic motivations for Canadian policy in Central America, security considerations were
AND
, such as Contadora, as will be discussed in the next chapter.

Relations solve border terrorism and drug networks

Storrs 6 (K. Larry Storrs, Specialist in Latin American Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 1/18/2006 "Mexico’s Importance and Multiple Relationships with the United States", http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33244_20060118.pdf-http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33244_20060118.pdf)//JG**

Sharing a 2,000-mile border and extensive interconnections through the Gulf ofMexico
AND
, and border, terrorism,health, environment, and energy issues.

The impact is an attack on US soil

McCaul 12 – JD @ St. Mary’s, former federal prosecutor
(Michael, "A LINE IN THE SAND: COUNTERING CRIME, VIOLENCE AND TERROR AT THE  SOUTHWEST BORDER," UNITED STATES HOUSE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY, Lexis)BB

Terrorism remains a serious threat to the security of the United States. The Congressional
AND
assembled on U.S. soil into a weapon of mass destruction.

Nuclear war

Ayson 10 - Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington
(Robert, "After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects," Studies in Conflict 26 Terrorism, 33.7, InformaWorld)BB
But these two nuclear worlds—a non-state actor nuclear attack and a
AND
be admitted that any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response.

Independently, a US economic crisis is coming

DeLong 13 - Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Visiting Fellow at the Kauffman Foundation (J. Bradford, "The Second Great Depression: Why the Economic Crisis is Worse Than You Think", July/August 2013 Foreign Affairs)Beddow

Despite its many virtues, however, the book paints an overly optimistic portrait of
AND
States is likely to suffer another major economic crisis in the years ahead.

Latin energy connectivity is key to growth

Noriega and Cardenas 12 – *Former US State Dept Official,  director with Vision Americas
("An action plan for US policy in the Americas," December, http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/latin-america/an-action-plan-for-us-policy-in-the-americas/)//BB
Key points in this Outlook:
America’s economic crisis and threats to US security have undermined its traditional global-leadership
AND
its own hemisphere. A prosperous hemisphere means a more prosperous United States.

US growth solves hegemony – collapse causes war

Khalilzad 11 – PhD, Former Professor of Political Science @ Columbia, Former ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan
(Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Economy and National Security" Feb 8 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad)//BB
Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
AND
, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. 

That’s the controlling impact

Brooks, Ikenberry, and Wohlforth 13 ~Stephen G. Brooks is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College.G. John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He is also a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University.William C. Wohlforth is the Daniel Webster Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. "Don’t Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment", Winter 2013, Vol. 37, No. 3, Pages 7-51,http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00107, GDI File~
A core premise of deep engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far
AND
case would generate intensely competitive behavior, possibly including regional great power war). 

Economic decline risks multiple global nuclear wars

O’Hanlon 12
Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center and Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and Global Economy and Development at the Brookings Institution, former Professor at the University of Michigan ~"The Real National Security Threat: America’s Debt," Los Angeles Times, July 10th, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-ohanlon~~
Alas, globalization and automation trends of the last generation have increasingly called the American
AND
really possible if that fundamental prerequisite to effective foreign policy is not reestablished.

The United States federal government should provide renewable energy assistance to Mexico.

Advantage two is warming

Global warming is real and human induced – science has agreed that it is real and imminent

Anderegg et al 10 – PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology
(William, "Expert credibility in climate change," National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109)BB

Preliminary reviews of scientific literature and surveys of cli- mate scientists indicate striking agreement
AND
discussions in media, policy, and public forums regarding anthropogenic climate change.

Action now averts extinction

Morgan 9 – professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (Dennis Ray, "World on Fire: Two Scenarios of the Destruction of Human Civilization and the Possible Extinction of the Human Race", 2009)Beddow

As horrifying as the scenario of human extinction by sudden, fast-burning nuclear
AND
to a fundamentally different premise regarding the relationship between industrial civilization and nature.

Warming is an existential risk – quickening reductions is key to avoiding extinction

Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, "Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it," pg. 122)BB

The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2
AND
adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

Technical assistance for renewables significantly reduces greenhouse gases

COCEF 12 - La Comisión de Cooperación Ecológica Fronteriza
("Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region," http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC20WP2020Nov20201120index.pdf)//BB
This white paper describes the current deficit in the U.S.-Mexico border
AND
, and the funds will need a highly capacitated and experienced program manager.

Mexico is key:

1. Mexico key to solve climate change – Cancun Agreements prove

Villar ’12 (Marina Guajardo Villar, June 2012 "How is Mexico implementing its soft power by means of its public diplomacy to influence its international image?" Master Thesis, Clingendael, Netherlands Institute of International Relations, the paper  extensively consulted the work of
Joseph Nye, Nicholas Cull, Jan Melissen and Simon Anholt https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/bitstream/handle/1887/19412/MarinaGuajardo_MasterThesis_FINAL.pdf?sequence=1,JG)
COP16/CMP6 refers to the 16th edition of Conference of the Parties of the
AND
change" (Yvo de Boer, former head of UN climate change).

2. Production – they have ENORMOUS renewable energy potential

Wood 10 – PhD in Political Studies @ Queen’s, Professor @ ITAM in Mexico City
(Duncan, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, http://www.statealliancepartnership.org/resources_files/USMexico_Cooperation_Renewable_Energies.pdf)//BB
The North American contextThe North American economic region is experiencing an impact from all of
AND
absence of economic and financial incentives for public or private sectordevelopment of renewable resources

3. Technology transfer – Mexico will spread the green tech globally

ENS 12 – Environmental News Service
("U.S., Canada, Mexico Vow ’Continental’ Energy Grid," http://www.reepedia.com/archives/4568)//BB
The leaders of the United States, Mexico, and Canada today pledged to develop
AND
, including electricity generation and interconnection and welcome increasing North American energy trade."

And, An expanded BECC role quickly facilitates a Mexican green economy

COCEF 12 - La Comisión de Cooperación Ecológica Fronteriza
("Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy and Transportation: Project Opportunities in the U.S. – Mexico Border Region," http://www.cocef.org/Eng/VLibrary/Publications/SpecialReports/BECC20WP2020Nov20201120index.pdf)//BB
SECTION 4: BECC – THE BORDER TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDER 25Since 1995, the BECC
AND
show a clear and ample need for technical assistance in the focus sectors.

Tournament: Niles | Round: 1 | Opponent: Lane Tech MP | Judge: Benjamin Hamburger

1AC Transition Advantage

Advantage 1 is the Cuban Transition -

Cuban economic collapse coming now—reforms are failing

Lopez-Levy 11 – Arturo Lopez Levy is lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He a Research Associate of the Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East (ISIME) and teaches Latin American Politics, and Comparative Politics at the University of Denver and the Colorado School of Mines. ("Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy", May 2011, New America Foundation, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf-http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf,)

Cuba’s Three Crises The VI Party Congress and the reform processes it is ushering in
AND
, the one completely untenable choice would be to maintain the status quo.

Lack of foreign investment makes economic and societal collapse inevitable—normalizing relations is key

Ashby 13 – Timothy is a Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. ("Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States—The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises", March 29, 2013, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/-http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)

Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and
AND
defeating, what could be a major U.S. policy goal. 

Failure of economic reform causes civil war

Lopez-Levy 11 – Arturo Lopez Levy is lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He a Research Associate of the Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East (ISIME) and teaches Latin American Politics, and Comparative Politics at the University of Denver and the Colorado School of Mines. ("Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy", May 2011, New America Foundation, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf-http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf)

Indeed, if Cuba’s economic reform fails and local revolts ensue, the most likely
AND
of political liberalization that welcomes the growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.

Economic liberalization forces reform and stability

Lopez-Levy 13 – Arturo Lopez Levy is lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He a Research Associate of the Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East (ISIME) and teaches Latin American Politics, and Comparative Politics at the University of Denver and the Colorado School of Mines. ("Getting Ready for Post-Castro Cuba", April 10, 2013, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/getting-ready-post-castro-cuba-8316-http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/getting-ready-post-castro-cuba-8316)

If Cuba implements the type of mixed economy proposed by the last Congress of the
AND
incentives in ways it has not done since the Ford and Carter Administrations.

A total repeal of the embargo is key

CSG 13 – The Cuba Study Group is a non-profit and non-partisan organization studying Cuba. ("Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba", February 2013, http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032-http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032,)

Beyond failing to advance its stated objectives, the most counterproductive aspect of Helms-
AND
S. policy in the hands of Cuban proponents of the status quo.

More moderate approaches comparatively fail to stabilize Cuba

Koenig 10 – Lance is a US Army Colonel. This is a paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College. ("Time for a New Cuba Policy", March 11, 2010, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)

The United States requires a policy that will lead to better relations between the United States and Cuba, increase the soft power of the United States in the Latin American world, and pull the Cuban government towards a more representative form of governance. These conditions will contribute to the national security of the United States as well as to the western hemisphere. So with this in mind, what are our likely options? Options
• Path of least resistance, stay the course. The United States can continue
AND
the European Union, while the United States’ influence will continue to wane.
• Strengthen the current policy. Eliminate the billions of dollars per year in remittances
AND
the future direction of the Cuban government as the Castro regime is replaced.
• Limited easing of economic and travel sanctions. Engage the Cuban government and reward
AND
for a change towards market reforms and a more democratic form of government.
• Support the Cuban people, but not the government. This option would completely
AND
pressure to change from a dictatorship into a more representative form of government.
Recommendations
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is to support the Cuban people, but not the Cuban government. The United States should take the following actions unilaterally • Lift completely the economic embargo. Establish banking and financial relationships to facilitate the trading of goods and services between the two countries.
• Lift completely the travel ban to allow not only Cuban-Americans with relatives but also all other Americans to travel to Cuba. This interaction of Americans with Cubans will help raise the awareness of Cubans about their northern neighbor.
• Next, the United States should engage the Cuban government to develop a bilateral trade agreement. The goal of this initiative would be to achieve normal trade relations between the two countries.
This leaves the issue of compensation for United States companies and individuals whose property was
AND
guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas. 

Cuban collapse makes resolving the Taiwan crisis impossible

Gorrell 05 – Tim is a Lieutenant Colonel in the US Army. This paper is a strategy research project. ("Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Strategic Crisis?" March 18, 2005, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
AND
in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

US support for Taiwan is critical to preventing war

Roy 12 – Dr. Denny Roy is a senior research fellow in Asian security issues with the East-West Center in Honolulu. ("Why the U.S. shouldn’t abandon Taiwan", December 6, 2012, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/06/why-the-u-s-shouldnt-abandon-taiwan/-http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/06/why-the-u-s-shouldnt-abandon-taiwan/,)

China is the next superpower, the United States is in decline, and America
AND
destroy the political system and political identity chosen by Taiwan’s people is real.

Taiwan crisis is the most likely scenario for nuclear war

Lowther 3/16 – William is a staff writer for the Taipei Times, citing a CSIS report. ("Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report", 3/16/2013, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211-http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)

Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
AND
arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."

1AC—Plan Text

The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with the Republic of Cuba.

1AC—Agriculture Advantage

Advantage 2 is Agriculture

Status quo food production is failing—a shift to urban agriculture is key to sustainable food systems and biodiversity preservation

Peters 10 – LL.M. expected 2011, University of Arkansas School of Law, Graduate Program in Agricultural and Food Law; J.D. 2010, University of Oregon School of Law. ("Creating a Sustainable Urban Agriculture Revolution", Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation, Vol. 25, 203, http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf-http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf)

URBAN AGRICULTURE Urban agriculture is a system that ensures food security by providing access to
AND
without concern for its impact on society and the environment is not sustainable. 

Cuban agriculture sustainability is failing—foreign investment is key

King 12 – M. Dawn King is a Visiting Assistant Professor at Brown University’s Center for Environmental Studies. She earned her Ph.D. in Environmental Politics at Colorado State University and worked as a policy analyst for the U.S. Geological Survey – conducting research on environmental decision-making models and internal governance of watershed management councils. ("Cuban Sustainability: The Effects of Economic Isolation on Agriculture and Energy", March 21, 2012, http://wpsa.research.pdx.edu/meet/2012/kingmdawn.pdf-http://wpsa.research.pdx.edu/meet/2012/kingmdawn.pdf, Callahan)
Cuba needed an alternative agricultural model when foreign oil imports were cut off significantly at
AND
goal of sustainable development to increase short-term capital and energy needs.

The plan provides foreign capital to Cuba and allows its model to be exported globally

Shkolnick 12 – JD Candidate, Drake University Law School. ("SIN EMBARGO: THE CUBAN AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES", 17 Drake J. Agric. L. 683, Fall, http://students.law.drake.edu/aglawjournal/docs/agVol17No3-Shkolnick.pdf)
Cuba today is experiencing the most rapid shifts towards privatization and reform since the revolution
AND
presents a unique opportunity American business and agricultural enterprises cannot afford to overlook.

Access to the US market is critical to sustainability and emulation

Kost 04 – William is part of the Economic Research Service for the USDA. ("CUBAN AGRICULTURE: TO BE OR NOT TO BE ORGANIC?" 2004, http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume14/pdfs/kost.pdf-http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume14/pdfs/kost.pdf)

MARKETS MAY BE CRITICAL FOR AN ORGANIC CUBA In addition to the above European markets
AND
and other inputs to support growth in other sectors of the Cuban economy.

Continued reliance on industrial mechanized ag results in catastrophic warming and biodiversity loss

Cummins 10 – Ronnie is the International Director of the Organic Consumers Association. ("Industrial Agriculture and Human Survival: The Road Beyond 10/10/10", Organic Consumer’s Association, October 7, 2010, http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_21747.cfm-http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_21747.cfm)
Although transportation, industry, and energy producers are obviously major fossil fuel users and
AND
oxide, which are responsible for at least 22 of global warming.

Ecosystem collapse causes extinction

WATSON 2006 (Captain Paul, Founder and President of Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, has a show on Animal Planet, Last Mod 9-17, http://www.eco-action.org/dt/beerswil.html)
The facts are clear. More plant and animal species will go through extinction within
AND
and with it the horrendous and mind numbing specter of massive human destruction.

A move towards organic ag mitigates future emissions and prevents warming

Scialabba 10 – Nadia is from the Natural Resources Management and Environment Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). ("Organic agriculture and climate change", February 2, 2010, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 25.2, http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/275960/al185e.pdf-http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/275960/al185e.pdf,)

Organic agricultural systems have an inherent potential to both reduce GHG emissions and to enhance
AND
are needed to better unlock its potential and application on a large scale.

Warming causes extinction

Costello 11 – Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London ~"Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action" May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society~

Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change is a high priority.
AND
as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible, therefore making many environments uninhabitable. 

Independently, CO2 emissions cause extinction

Romm 12 (Joe Romm is a Fellow at American Progress and is the editor of Climate Progress, "Science: Ocean Acidifying So Fast It Threatens Humanity’s Ability to Feed Itself," 3/2/2012, http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/03/02/436193/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanity-ability-to-feed-itself/?utm_source=feedburner26utm_medium=email26utm_campaign=Feed3A+climateprogre)
The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they
AND
corals, mollusks and some plankton need for reef and shell-building.

Warming’s real and anthropogenic—reject skeptics

Prothero 12 ~Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, 17.2, EBSCO~
How do we know that global warming is real and primarilyhuman caused? There are
AND
change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

Tournament: Niles | Round: 4 | Opponent: Evanston CM | Judge: Charlie Clark

1AC—Agriculture Advantage

Advantage 1 is Agriculture

Status quo food production is failing—a shift to urban agriculture is key to sustainable food systems and biodiversity preservation

Peters 10 – LL.M. expected 2011, University of Arkansas School of Law, Graduate Program in Agricultural and Food Law; J.D. 2010, University of Oregon School of Law. ("Creating a Sustainable Urban Agriculture Revolution", Journal of Environmental Law and Litigation, Vol. 25, 203, http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf-http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf)

URBAN AGRICULTURE Urban agriculture is a system that ensures food security by providing access to
AND
without concern for its impact on society and the environment is not sustainable. 

Cuban agriculture sustainability is failing—foreign investment is key

King 12 – M. Dawn King is a Visiting Assistant Professor at Brown University’s Center for Environmental Studies. She earned her Ph.D. in Environmental Politics at Colorado State University and worked as a policy analyst for the U.S. Geological Survey – conducting research on environmental decision-making models and internal governance of watershed management councils. ("Cuban Sustainability: The Effects of Economic Isolation on Agriculture and Energy", March 21, 2012, http://wpsa.research.pdx.edu/meet/2012/kingmdawn.pdf-http://wpsa.research.pdx.edu/meet/2012/kingmdawn.pdf, Callahan)
Cuba needed an alternative agricultural model when foreign oil imports were cut off significantly at
AND
goal of sustainable development to increase short-term capital and energy needs.

The plan provides foreign capital to Cuba and allows its model to be exported globally

Shkolnick 12 – JD Candidate, Drake University Law School. ("SIN EMBARGO: THE CUBAN AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES", 17 Drake J. Agric. L. 683, Fall, http://students.law.drake.edu/aglawjournal/docs/agVol17No3-Shkolnick.pdf)
Cuba today is experiencing the most rapid shifts towards privatization and reform since the revolution
AND
presents a unique opportunity American business and agricultural enterprises cannot afford to overlook.

Access to the US market is critical to sustainability and emulation

Kost 04 – William is part of the Economic Research Service for the USDA. ("CUBAN AGRICULTURE: TO BE OR NOT TO BE ORGANIC?" 2004, http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume14/pdfs/kost.pdf-http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume14/pdfs/kost.pdf)

MARKETS MAY BE CRITICAL FOR AN ORGANIC CUBA In addition to the above European markets
AND
and other inputs to support growth in other sectors of the Cuban economy.

A move towards organic ag mitigates future emissions and prevents warming

Scialabba 10 – Nadia is from the Natural Resources Management and Environment Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). ("Organic agriculture and climate change", February 2, 2010, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 25.2, http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/275960/al185e.pdf-http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/275960/al185e.pdf,)

Organic agricultural systems have an inherent potential to both reduce GHG emissions and to enhance
AND
are needed to better unlock its potential and application on a large scale.

Warming causes extinction

Costello 11 – Anthony, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Mark Maslin, Department of Geography, University College London, Hugh Montgomery, Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, Anne M. Johnson, Institute for Global Health, University College London, Paul Ekins, Energy Institute, University College London ~"Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action" May 2011 vol. 369 no. 1942 1866-1882 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society~

Advocacy about the health consequences will ensure that climate change is a high priority.
AND
as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible, therefore making many environments uninhabitable. 

Warming’s real and anthropogenic—reject skeptics

- Blue highlighting
Prothero 12 ~Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, 17.2, EBSCO~
How do we know that global warming is real and primarilyhuman caused? There are
AND
change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

1AC—Plan Text

The United States federal government should normalize its trade relations with the Republic of Cuba.

1AC—Framing

Contention 2 is framing

Life has intrinsic and objective value achieved through subjective pleasures—-its preservation should be an a priori goal

Amien Kacou 8 WHY EVEN MIND? On The A Priori Value Of "Life", Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy, Vol 4, No 1-2 (2008) cosmosandhistory.org/index.php/journal/article/view/92/184
Furthermore, that manner of finding things good that is in pleasure can certainly not
AND
priori value—what gives us pleasure is a matter for empirical investigation.
Thus, we can see now that, in general, something primitively valuable is
AND
at least for the sake of preserving the possibility of finding that good.
However, this platitude about the value that can be found in life turns out
AND
and desire. Perhaps, our inquiry should be a bit more complex.

Life is good

Amien Kacou 8 WHY EVEN MIND? On The A Priori Value Of "Life" Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy, Vol 4, No 1-2 (2008) cosmosandhistory.org/index.php/journal/article/view/92/184
IV. Is life "better than" death a priori?
a. The value of survival
We are now in a position to state an answer to our main question.
AND
, then ~consciousness*desire~ can be simplified to ~consciousness~.
In this way, pain can be seen to address an additional circumstance (the
AND
"—pleasure would have value only so long as the advantage is needed.
However, such an image would also be the result of what we characterized earlier
AND
as desiring the end of desire—the disappearance of value.~31~
In sum: no problem for consciousness precedes or is inherent to consciousness, which
AND
an a posteriori (i.e., circumstantial) phenomenon of consciousness.
Furthermore, since, as we have seen, life is an expression of desire
AND
a value to all life in general) is the same for all.
It follows that life at its essence is pleasure. Life inherently, initially,
AND
), and then augment (intensify) or expand (diversify) pleasure.
In conclusion, since the infinite desire for pleasure finds its greatest satisfaction a priori
AND
inquiry—on the subjective or circumstantial or a posteriori value of life.
b. The value of birth
The above "demonstration" that our survival-as-such is good may
AND
rationally prefer a priori not to have been born in the first place.
Conclusions: The value of life, ethical foundationalism and post-theism
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind pitiless indifference.~34~
a. Nihilistic theism:
In conclusion, we have shown that the desire for the good of life is a priori superior to the desire for the good of death—and that the good of life finds its highest form in its own perpetuation.
We have also noted that circumstantial entanglements could conceivably make us think we want what we do not want. In other words, irrational behavior becomes possible: it becomes possible to find discrete pleasure in things that should not give us pleasure—say, because they compromise access to greater pleasure. This explains why it becomes possible to even deny the value of life-as-such.
We can also reason that it is the circumstance that the perpetuation of life and
AND
, this imperfection of pleasure, which forms the central concern of theological worldviews
 (which devalue pleasure in its finite form—at least, to the extent that it does not seem conditioned by them). This concern finds expression in two assertions: that experience belongs to an immortal soul; and that perfect pleasure is guaranteed in "heaven."
"Heaven" is defined as a place where nothing bad can occur—a
AND
the same as desiring the end of desire, the disappearance of value.
We need not investigate in detail the circumstances that make it possible to say that
AND
of goodness in order to be able to find anything good at all.
Heaven can be defined as "God’s realm." That "God" may be defined as an inescapable (perhaps even all-inclusive, somehow), eternally consistent, committed and supreme preference and power. Through these attributes, It makes heaven possible. Therefore, it is Its authority that conditions the possibility of the good itself (which for greedy nihilists, as we have shown, is conditioned on the idea of its necessity). Thus, that "God" becomes the source or foundation of ethics and value.
Accordingly, when the idea that such a "God" does not exist becomes
AND
words, she would become a passive nihilist—in the Nietzschean sense.
In sum, there would be two sides to this paradoxical coin we can now
AND
"escape" the world—and costly to try to do so.
The Nietzschean God could perhaps be distinguished from the run of the mill "God
AND
is not necessary that the Pascalian God exist for things to be good.
It is perhaps the temptation to further define the Pascalian God, in order to make It more predictable, that eventually leads us to conceive of the totalitarian Nietzschean God—inflating, in the process, the problem of fortune (chance), from a discrete, marginal, "quantized" phenomenon, so to speak, to a massive one.
b. Post-theism and axiological realism
Post-theism needs not involve any negation of the existence of a particular "God."~36~ It needs only involve a realization that we must find answers without reference to any such "God."
The "cause" for the existence of value, like the "cause"
AND
we just happen to live in that world with the relevant modal particularity).
What must be understood is that neither "theory" should change anything to the "value of value."
An ethical foundation is "something for the sake of which everything else can be valued."~37~ Greedy nihilists believe that an absence of external obligation (external force) at the foundation (or as the source) of value (desire) would eliminate value. However, we have seen that their worldview was founded on a desire for something that would make value impossible. Perhaps, then, something like "gratuity" (freedom) would best serve as "foundation."
But such a "foundation" would seem to correspond to no foundation at all
AND
existence? (Or, perhaps more importantly, what might it subtract?)
In other words, while we see that the constitution of all morality is twofold—including (1) value (i.e., the fact that we value anything), and (2) the fact that the service of what we value may be conditioned~38~—we now also see that, however, we cannot meaningfully, by ourselves, place conditions for our valuing things in general, for valuing things in the first place.
In yet other words, we have seen that, in terms of general phenomena, care (value) "precedes" belief. Therefore, how could any belief—except the senseless (uninformative) belief that value exists—rationally condition value? More specifically, how could belief in a particular explanation for the existence of value condition value? (These are rhetorical questions.)
Value cannot be self-defeating—desire cannot desire its own dissatisfaction. Moreover
AND
more than the product of a special kind of confusion (or stupidity).
In this sense, we are "trapped" in value—our "escape" could only come (directly at least, if at all) from the exterior. Perhaps then it follows that it is in those who depend on external references, or transcendental "truths," to provide their axiological source or foundation that we truly begin to find the collapse of what makes value (and therefore morality) possible.
c. Temptation of "meaning"
To ask for the meaning of life can be thought ultimately to ask what should
AND
and how what we value can be served, on the other hand.
On the one hand, one who seeks an explanation for the fact that life
AND
life has value a priori, irrespective of any explanation regarding its existence.
As we have shown that life-as-such (the general condition of experience) has, at the very least, the unproblematic value of pleasure (the liking of experience, or the experience of liking things), then the service of pleasure could be seen as that object or moment in
life that is sufficiently "meaningful" in serving what we value. Furthermore, since value-as-such could not be conditioned by any explanation, then the very existence of unproblematic value in life could not rationally be conditioned on one explanation or another for the existence of life. It is not simply that we have some subjective desire for life, but that living things cannot help but desire life a priori.
Accordingly, we should be able to see life as an end in itself. Although one explanation, as opposed to another, for the existence of life could depict a better overall situation for life (e.g., one that would involve immortality), we must fight the temptation to believe that any explanation could condition our finding life good.

Extinction is bad because it takes away the choice for people to live or die and give value to their lives – assisted suicide solves all their offense

Paterson 3 Craig, Department of Philosophy, Providence College, Rhode Island "A Life Not Worth Living?", Studaies in Christian Ethics, http://sce.sagepub.com-http:sce.sagepub.com/

In determining whether a life is worth living or not, attention should be focused
AND
is essentially left up to the individual to determine for himself or herself.

It’s a D rule

Cote 94 (Sherrie Marie, The Manatee: Facing Imminent Extinction, 9 Fla. J. Int’l L. 189 Spring)
It is our responsibility, as tenants on the global commons, to prevent that which is within our power to prevent. As Senator Alan Cranston once said:
The death of a species is profound, for it means nature has lost one
AND
extinction ... must be a tenet among ~hu~man’s moral responsibilities.

Debate over warming is key to create a consciousness shift

Crist 4 (Eileen, Professor at Virginia Tech in the Department of Science and Technology, "Against the social construction of nature and wilderness", Environmental Ethics 26;1, p 13-6, http://www.sts.vt.edu/faculty/crist/againstsocialconstruction.pdf-http://www.sts.vt.edu/faculty/crist/againstsocialconstruction.pdf**)**

Yet, constructivist analyses of "nature" favor remaining in the comfort zone of
AND
the world at an hour that is pressingly calling us to change it.

Public advocacy of climate solutions key to change governmental policy—-individual change insufficient

CAG 10—Climate Change Communication Advisory Group. Dr Adam Corner School of Psychology, Cardiff University - Dr Tom Crompton Change Strategist, WWF-UK - Scott Davidson Programme Manager,  Global Action Plan - Richard Hawkins Senior Researcher,  Public Interest Research Centre - Professor Tim Kasser, Psychology department, Knox College, Galesburg, Illinois, USA.  - Dr Renee Lertzman, Center for Sustainable Processes 26  Practices, Portland State University, US. - Peter Lipman, Policy Director, Sustrans. - Dr Irene Lorenzoni, Centre for Environmental Risk,  University of East Anglia. - George Marshall, Founding Director, Climate Outreach , Information Network - Dr Ciaran Mundy, Director, Transition Bristol - Dr Saffron O’Neil, Department of Resource Management and Geography, University of Melbourne, Australia.  - Professor Nick Pidgeon, Director, Understanding Risk Research Group, School of Psychology, Cardiff University. - Dr Anna Rabinovich, School of Psychology, University of Exeter - Rosemary Randall, Founder and director of Cambridge Carbon Footprint - Dr Lorraine Whitmarsh, School of Psychology, Cardiff University 26 Visiting Fellow at the, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. (Communicating climate change to mass public audience, http://pirc.info/downloads/communicating_climate_mass_audiences.pdf)
This short advisory paper collates a set of recommendations about how best to shape mass
AND
they would like structural barriers to behavioural/societal change to be removed.

Simulation and institutional deliberation are valuable and motivate effective responses to climate risks

Marx et al 7 (Sabine M, Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) @ Columbia University, Elke U. Weber, Graduate School of Business and Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Benjamin S. Orlovea, Department of Environmental Science and Policy @ University of California Davis, Anthony Leiserowitz, Decision Research, David H. Krantz, Department of Psychology @ Columbia University, Carla Roncolia, South East Climate Consortium (SECC), Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering @ University of Georgia and Jennifer Phillips, Bard Centre for Environmental Policy @ Bard College, "Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information", 2007, http://climate.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Marx_GEC_2007.pdf-http://climate.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/Marx_GEC_2007.pdf)

Based on the observation that experiential and analytic processing systems compete and that personal experience
AND
engage both systems in the process of individual and group decision-making.

1AC—Transition Advantage

Advantage 2 is the Cuban Transition -

Cuban economic collapse coming now—reforms are failing

Lopez-Levy 11 – Arturo Lopez Levy is lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He a Research Associate of the Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East (ISIME) and teaches Latin American Politics, and Comparative Politics at the University of Denver and the Colorado School of Mines. ("Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy", May 2011, New America Foundation, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf-http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf,)

Cuba’s Three Crises The VI Party Congress and the reform processes it is ushering in
AND
, the one completely untenable choice would be to maintain the status quo.

Lack of foreign investment makes economic and societal collapse inevitable—normalizing relations is key

Ashby 13 – Timothy is a Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs. ("Preserving Stability in Cuba After Normalizing Relations with the United States—The Importance of Trading with State-Owned Enterprises", March 29, 2013, http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/-http://www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)

Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and
AND
defeating, what could be a major U.S. policy goal. 

Failure of economic reform causes civil war – leads to violations of human rights, war, and suffering

Lopez-Levy 11 – Arturo Lopez Levy is lecturer and PhD Candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He a Research Associate of the Institute for the Study of Israel in the Middle East (ISIME) and teaches Latin American Politics, and Comparative Politics at the University of Denver and the Colorado School of Mines. ("Change In Post-Fidel Cuba: Political Liberalization, Economic Reform and Lessons for U.S. Policy", May 2011, New America Foundation, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf-http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/naf_all_cuba_reform_final.pdf)

Indeed, if Cuba’s economic reform fails and local revolts ensue, the most likely
AND
of political liberalization that welcomes the growth of nonpartisan Cuban civil society organizations.

Tournament: MichiganOctos | Round: Octas | Opponent: Pace HP | Judge: Buntin McIntosh Pappas
1AC—Agriculture
CONTENTION 2 IS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE:
Cuban agriculture sustainability is failing—foreign investment is key
King 12 – M. Dawn King is a Visiting Assistant Professor at Brown University’s Center for Environmental Studies. She earned her Ph.D. in Environmental Politics at Colorado State University and worked as a policy analyst for the U.S. Geological Survey – conducting research on environmental decision-making models and internal governance of watershed management councils. (“Cuban Sustainability: The Effects of Economic Isolation on Agriculture and Energy”, March 21, 2012, http://wpsa.research.pdx.edu/meet/2012/kingmdawn.pdf, Callahan)

Cuba needed an ……   and energy needs.
The plan provides foreign capital to Cuba and allows its model to be exported globally
Shkolnick 12 – JD Candidate, Drake University Law School. (“SIN EMBARGO: THE CUBAN AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE UNITED STATES”, 17 Drake J. Agric. L. 683, Fall, http://students.law.drake.edu/aglawjournal/docs/agVol17No3-Shkolnick.pdf)

Cuba today is experiencing the most rapid shifts towards privatization and reform since the revolution more than sixty years ago…… for domestic consumption in an environment where other production approaches are just not available. The U.S. market is large and diverse. The demand for organic produce is only one portion of that market. How Cuba’s horticultural industry responds to restored U.S. trade will be a function of the relative price and cost incentives of the organic and non-organic market segments. If the organic price premiums are sufficient, Cuba has the climate, land resources, low-cost labor, and history of organicoriented production to allow it to develop and grow its horticultural sector in that direction. If the market incentives are not sufficiently large to pursue the organic produce market, Cuba will return to a chemical- and technology-driven, yield-maximizing, and labor-minimizing commercial production as rapidly as they can afford to do so. Cuba will have some incentive to increase domestic food production as rapidly as possible to feed the domestic population, rather than importing food for domestic consumption. Cuba could then use a larger share of its scarce foreign exchange to import energy, technology, and other inputs to support growth in other sectors of the Cuban economy.
Continued reliance on industrial mechanized ag results in catastrophic warming and biodiversity loss
Cummins 10 – Ronnie is the International Director of the Organic Consumers Association. (“Industrial Agriculture and Human Survival: The Road Beyond 10/10/10”, Organic Consumer’s Association, October 7, 2010, http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_21747.cfm)
Although transportation, industry, and energy producers are obviously major fossil fuel users and greenhouse gas polluters, not enough people understand that…………, including methane, soot, and nitrous oxide, which are responsible for at least 22 of global warming.
A move towards organic ag mitigates future emissions and prevents warming
Scialabba 10 – Nadia is from the Natural Resources Management and Environment Department, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (“Organic agriculture and climate change”, February 2, 2010, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 25.2, http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/275960/al185e.pdf,)

Organic agricultural…….  . However, investments in research and development of organic agriculture are needed to better unlock its potential and application on a large scale.

Causes extinction—4 degree projections trigger a laundry list of extinction scenarios
Roberts 13—citing the World Bank Review’s compilation of climate studies - 4 degree projected warming, can’t adapt - heat wave related deaths, forest fires, crop production, water wars, ocean acidity, sea level rise, climate migrants, biodiversity loss David, "If you aren’t alarmed about climate, you aren’t paying attention" http:grist.org/climate-energy/climate-alarmism-the-idea-is-surreal/~ January 10mtc 

We know we’ve raised global average temperatures around 0.8 degrees C so far. ……but a world that is inexorably more inhospitable with every passing decade.

Warming is anthropogenic – most comphrensive analysis to date proves
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech, *John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis *Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al., ("Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," Environmental Research Letters, 8.2) 

1. Introduction An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al2011). Communicating the scientific consensus also increases people's acceptance…….

, an overwhelming percentage (97.2 based on self-ratings, 97.1 based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.

1AC—Transition
CONTENTION 1 IS THE CUBAN TRANSITION:
Cuba’s current reforms are slow, contradictory, and insufficient—the plan is key
Shifter et al 10/15 – Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. Matthew Aho is a consultant in the corporate practice group of Akerman Senterfitt in New York. Collin Laverty is the founder and president of Cuba Educational Travel. Kirby Jones is the president of Alamar Associates in Arizona. Carmelo Mesa-Lago is a professor emeritus of economics and Latin American studies at the University of Pittsburgh. Archibald Ritter is a distinguished research professor emeritus of economics and international affairs at Carleton University. (“Are Raul Castro’s Reforms Helping Cuba’s Economy, 10/15/13, Latin America Adviser, pdf)

*This card is from pages 1,3, and 4 of the pdf.  Page two contains a wholly different article.  “Are Raúl Castro's Reforms Helping Cuba's Economy?” is published on pages 1, 3 and 4 of the PDF.  Our evidence is the entirety of the article.  We will provide you the PDF if you are curious*
In late September, Cuba's government¶ announced the legalization¶ of 18 new categories of private¶ employment,…….. 

. A most welcome surprise would¶ be a normalization of U.S.-Cuba relations¶ during the presidency of Barack Obama."

A total repeal of the embargo is key
CSG 13 – The Cuba Study Group is a non-profit and non-partisan organization studying Cuba. (“Restoring Executive Authority Over U.S. Policy Toward Cuba”, February 2013, http://www.cubastudygroup.org/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=45d8f827-174c-4d43-aa2f-ef7794831032,)

Beyond failing to advance its stated objectives, the most counterproductive aspect of …….. so as not to place the reigns of U.S. policy in the hands of Cuban proponents of the status quo.

More moderate approaches comparatively fail to stabilize Cuba
Koenig 10 – Lance is a US Army Colonel. This is a paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College. (“Time for a New Cuba Policy”, March 11, 2010, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)

The United States requires a policy that will ……….
 in comparison to the threat that Cuba poses today. The gains to be achieved by following any path other than the unilateral removal of the economic and travel embargoes are small in comparison to the overall costs of continuing the current failed policy. The United States is losing far too much soft power in its efforts to punish and isolate the government of Cuba. American firms could be left out of any economic gains as Cuba continues to grow its economy. As Cuba emerges from the economic difficulties of the last two decades, the United States has an opportunity to influence the future direction of our southern neighbor. The current United States policy has many passionate defenders, and their criticism of the Castro regime is justified. Nevertheless, we must recognize the ineffectiveness of our current policy and deal with the Cuban regime in a way that enhances United States interests.42 The United States cannot afford to miss out on the window of opportunity to affect a positive change in the relationship with Cuba. If Cuba is able to continue on a path of economic progress and emerge once again as a true regional power, with communism intact, the United States will be the loser in this half century struggle. Cuba is spreading its limited influence to Venezuela, Honduras, Nicaragua, and will be ready to bring in any other countries in the Americas that want to move away from the United States orbit. The United States can’t stand by and watch Cuba regain strength, intact as a communist country, but must take this opportunity to create an inflection point for Cuba that guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas.
The impact is the Cuban health care sector—it depends upon a democratic and market-based transition
Ullmann 05 – Steven G. Ullmann is a Professor and Director, Programs in and Center for Health Sector Management and Policy at U of Miami. This article is part of the Cuba Transition Project, part of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at Miami. (“The Future of Health Care in a Post-Castro Cuba”, 2005, http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/StevenUllman.pdf)

As a transition occurs, further deterioration of medical care…….. 

. What is certain, however, is the fact that the health care system in Cuba will be an extremely important component of any political, economic, and social transition in the country as well as in this active region of the world.
That model stops disease spread worldwide
Cooper et al 06 – Richard S. Cooper is in the Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology at Loyola University – Stritch School of Medicine, Maywood, IL, USA. (“Health in Cuba”, International Journal of Epidemiology, May 4, 2006, http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/35/4/817.full.pdf+html)
Infectious diseases The combination of …………

If the accomplishments of Cuba could be reproduced across a broad range of poor and middle-income countries the health of the world’s population would be transformed. This fact creates an obligation for health scientists. We should debate the merits of the principles embedded in the Cuban attempts to improve the health of populations.
Global pandemics are coming and direct US intervention fails
Weber 06 – Steven Weber is a Professor of Political Science at UC-Berkeley and Director of the Institute of International Studies. (“How Globalization Went Bad”, Foreign Policy, December 27, 2006, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2006/12/27/how_globalization_went_bad?page=0,2)
The same is true for global public health. ……….

the world is still not ready for a viral pandemic in Southeast Asia or sub-Saharan Africa. America can't change that alone.
Zoonotic diseases specifically lead to extinction
Casadevall 12 – Prof @ Department of Microbiology and Immunology and the Division of Infectious Diseases of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine Arturo. (“The future of biological warfare,” Microbial Biotechnology, p. 584-5)
In considering the importance of biological warfare as a subject for concern it is worthwhile to review the known existential threats. At this time this writer can identify at three major existential threats to humanity:  large-scale thermonuclear war followed by a nuclear winter, (ii) a planet killing asteroid impact and (iii) infectious disease. To this trio might be added climate change making the planet uninhabitable. Of the three existential threats the first is deduced from the inferred cataclysmic effects of nuclear war. For the second there is geological evidence for the association of asteroid impacts with massive extinction (Alvarez, 1987). As to an existential threat from microbes recent decades have provided unequivocal evidence for the ability of………

. Hence, from the viewpoint of existential threats environmental microbes could potentially pose a much greater threat to humanity than the known pathogenic microbes, which number somewhere near 1500 species (Cleaveland et al., 2001; Tayloret al., 2001), especially if some of these species acquired the capacity for pathogenicity as a consequence of natural evolution or bioengineering.
1AC—Plan Text
The United States federal government should allow normal trade between the United States and Cuba.
1AC—No War
CONTENTION 3 IS NO WAR:
First, won’t happen—global institutions, interdependence, the internet, fiscal constraints and nuclear deterrence
Robb 2012 (Doug, Lieutenant in the US Navy, “Now Hear This - Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over” http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over) 

In Proceedings’ April “Now Hear This,” Navy Lieutenant Commander Rachel Gosnell and Marine Second Lieutenant Michael Orzetti argue that “the possibility of great-power war between the United States and China cannot be ruled out.” However, despite China’s rise, which potentially threatens to alter international polarity, a preponderance of evidence suggests that the era of conventional large-scale war may be behind us.
………..

, such a war is equal parts costly, counterproductive, archaic, and improbable.
Second, nuclear taboo prevents use
Perkovich 2009 (George Perkovich served as a speechwriter and foreign policy adviser to Senator Joe Biden from 1989 to 1990. Perkovich is an adviser to the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations' Task Force on U.S. Nuclear Policy.  “EXTENDED DETERRENCE ON THE WAY TO A NUCLEAR-FREE WORLD” http://icnnd.org/Documents/Perkovich_Deterrence.pdf)

The reality today is that the taboo against using nuclear weapons has become so strong, especially in democracies………..

. The U.S. has no obligation to fight for Taiwanese independence if China has not committed aggression against Taiwan first.
Third, it doesn’t cause extinction
ROBOCK 2010 (Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, “Nuclear Winter,” WIREs Climate Change, May/June, Wiley Online Library via University of Michigan Libraries)

While it is important to point out the consequences of nuclear winter,…… . The consequences of nuclear winter are extreme enough without these additional effects, however.