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1ac
Tournament: UOFM | Round: 4 | Opponent: Kirby and AJ | Judge: Morgan 1ac trade
Advantage 1 is trade Scenario 1 is Iran Trade is the linchpin of Iranian relations and influence in Latin America—this ensures a base for launching attacks Walser 12 – Ph.D in History @ UNC Chapel Hill, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, visiting professor of IR @ U.S Military Academy West Point (Ray, “The Future of Iran's Influence in Latin America”, inFocus Quarterly, Summer 2012, http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/3233/iran-influence-latin-america) On the geopolitical chessboard,Iran pursues a multiple track policy inthe Western Hemisphere. AND Likewise, Brazil leads the way as an important agricultural exporter to Iran.
Iran is developing nuclear missile bases in Venezuela —they will launch missiles at the US Levy 11 – Master’s degree in International Relations @ Oxford, A.B. in English and History@ Duke, Soref Research Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (Judith, “A new Missile Crisis? Iran is building a missile base in Venezuela, 5/17/11, http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/israel-online/2011/may/17/new-missile-crisis-iran-base-venezuela/) ISRAEL, May 17, 2011 -—There’s a situation developing south of the U AND range ballistic missiles “with the apparent aimof being ableto deliver nuclear warheads.”
Nuclear war and extinction Chossudovsky, 10 — Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Michael, “Towards a World War III Scenario? The Role of Israel in Triggering an Attack on Iran”, 8/13/2010, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.phpcontext=vaandaid=20584) For several years now Iran has been conducting its own war drills and exercises. AND decision by the US and its allies to postpone an attack on Iran.
Iran-Venezuela relations ensure Venezuelan and Iranian nuclearization Noriega, 10 (Roger, “Chávez's Secret Nuclear Program”, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States from 2001 to 2003 and U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere from 2003 to 2005. He is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute) http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/05/chavez_s_secret_nuclear_program?page=0,0 VenezuelanPresident Hugo Chávez admitted last week that his government is "carrying out the first AND "Atomic Energy Committee" has been managing the nuclear program since 2007.
This causes Latin America prolif causes global nuclear war Shepard-Durini 9 (Suzana, “The ABC's of Nuclear Disarmament in Latin America”, 2009, B.A. Political Science and Latin America Studies @ Wellesey College, M.A. Latin America Studies (security) @ Georgetown, Research Associate for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs) There are several resources that indicate that Latin American political scientists were worried about the AND a very hard time surviving if there existed no trust between the nations. Prolif is bad – no risk of turns Horowitz, 09 April, Michael, Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons,” journal of conflict resolution, vol 53, no 2
Learning as states gain experience with nuclear weapons is complicated. While to some extent AND war, the balance of power, and the preferences of the adopter.
Now is key – Iran’s network is fragile – increasing trade solves Iranian encroachment Fite et al 13 -Coughlin-Schulte6/9/13 – Interns @ Burkey Chair in Strategy @ CSIS, *studying IR and Arab studies @ Georgetown (“US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Periphery States”, http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-latin-america-africa-and-periphery-states) Iran has worked to build relationshipswithother politically isolatedgovernmentswith which it has somewhat of an ideological AND to contain and isolate Iran, Tehran’s web is fragile and possibly illusory.
Scenario 2 is cyber terror Iran is cooperating with Venezuela on cyber terror now—they will attack the U.S. power grid Ryan11 Mauro 12/23/11 –Former Intelligence analyst and director of the Asymmetric Warfare and Intelligence center.--Hired as a geopolitical analyst. He has a B.A. in intelligence studies and a master’s degree in political science at American military University“Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the Cyber Threat” http://frontpagemag.com/2011/ryan-mauro/iran-venezuela-cuba-and-the-cyber-threat/2/ Cuban,Iranian and Venezuelan officials have been caught actively considering cyber attacks on the AND know about, then what are they doing that we don’t know about? Vulnerability to cyber terror is increasing CRO et.al. 11 The Catastrophic-Research-Organization-Forum member companies are large multi-national insurance companies. -The CRO Forum is a high-level discussion group formed and attended by Chief Risk Officers of major Europe “Power Blackout Risks¶ Risk Management Options” Emerging Risk November.2011 (Contract Research Organization)https://www.allianz.com/v_1339677769000/media/responsibility/documents/position_paper_power_blackout_risks.pdf Power supply industry is classified as a critical infrastructure. These are organisational and physical AND used not only by individualcriminals or terrorists, but also by foreign states.
4 Impacts— First is Electricity failures: Smith 2k (Gar staff writer at the Earth Island Journal, winter proquest)JC The third type could happen if the electricity fails. Reactors depend on off- AND left without power. In some regions, the blackout lasted several weeks.
Extinction Wasserman 1 (Harvey journalist and author of The Last Energy War “America’s Terrorist Nuclear Threat to Itself” http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2001/10/00_wasserman_nuclear-threat.htm)JC The intense radioactive heat within today's operating reactors is the hottest anywhere on the planet AND very core of our life and of all future generations must be shut down
Second is the Economy: CRO et.al. 11The Catastrophic-Research-Organization-Forum member companies are large multi-national insurance companies. -The CRO Forum is a high-level discussion group formed and attended by Chief Risk Officers of major Europe “Power Blackout Risks¶ Risk Management Options” Emerging Risk November.2011 (Contract Research Organization)https://www.allianz.com/v_1339677769000/media/responsibility/documents/position_paper_power_blackout_risks.pdf Electricity is the backbone ofeach industrialisedsociety and economy.Modern countries are not used to AND the impacts would escalate as a function of the duration of the interruption.
Global nuclear war Royal, 10 — Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense (Jedediah, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises?”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215, 2010) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
Third is the chemical and manufacturing industry CRO et.al. 11The Catastrophic-Research-Organization-Forum member companies are large multi-national insurance companies. -The CRO Forum is a high-level discussion group formed and attended by Chief Risk Officers of major Europe “Power Blackout Risks¶ Risk Management Options” Emerging Risk November.2011 (Contract Research Organization)https://www.allianz.com/v_1339677769000/media/responsibility/documents/position_paper_power_blackout_risks.pdf Most critical systems such as hospitals, first responder facilities, water and sewage systems AND to many homes burning while there is no water for emergency response teams.
The chemical industry is key to prevent extinction – uniquely solves bioterror Baum 99 (Rudy M. Baum, CandEN Washington, “Millennium Special Report,” Chemical and Engineering News, American Chemical Society, Volume 77, Number 49, December 6, 1999, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html) Here is the fundamental challenge we face: The world's growingand agingpopulation must be fed AND mysteries and provide for humanity's basic and not-so-basic needs.
Manufacturing also is key to detection and prevention of bioterror Morgan 3 (Sarah, East Texas Baptist University, Silverio Colon, Arizona State University Department of Bioengineering College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Judith A. Ruffner and John A. Emerson, Organic Materials Department, “Biomanufacturing: A State of the Technology Review” September 2003, http://www.che.ncsu.edu/academics/concentrations/documents/Biomanufacturing-AStateofTechRev.pdf) Perhaps the most unique and advantageous aspect of biomanufacturing is the excellent control that may AND National Laboratories has the expertise to contribute to any one of these fields.
Extinction Matheny, 7 – former associate at Oxford, MPJ from Hopkins (Jason, published in Risk Analysis 2007; 27(5): 1335-1344, “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” http://jgmatheny.org/matheny_extinction_risk.htm) Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed AND such experiments because the bene?ts do not seem to be worth the risks. Fourth is cyberwar Fritz 9 (Jason, Captain – U.S. Army, Researcher – International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and M.A. in International Relations – Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control”, July, www.icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.doc) The US uses the two-man rule to achieve a higher level of security AND of mass DDoS attacks, real world protests, and accusations between governments.
Scenario three is instability The plan is key to shift away from Chavez’s 4th generation asymmetric war -- that’s key to avoid instability Manwaring12 (Max G., Professor of Military Strategy – U.S. Army War College, Adjunct Professor of International Politics – Dickinson College, Ph.D. in Political Science – University of Illinois, Colonel (Ret.) – U.S. Army, “Venezuela As An Exporter of 4th Generation Warfare Instability”, December 2012, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB1139.pdf) The past several years have marked the beginning of a different security era than that AND its ends; and, 3) is deliberately protracted (temporal).22
Latin American instability causes nuclear war – specifically a Venezuelan failed state will spark extinction Manwaring 5 (Max G., Professor of Military Strategy – U.S. Army War College, Adjunct Professor of International Politics – Dickinson College, Ph.D. in Political Science – University of Illinois, Colonel (Ret.) – U.S. Army, “Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare”, October, PUB628.pdf) President Chávez also understands that the process leading to state failure is the most dangerous AND and their associated problems endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.65
relations Advantage two is relations
The plan solves relations and credibility and that spills over to the entirety of Latin America Griffin 13 – writer for the Harvard Crimson (John, “Engage with Venezuela”, 4/2/13 http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/4/3/Harvard-Venezuela-Chavez-death/#) When Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez died in early February, his country was thrown into AND vinegar—it’s high time we started trying to catch them with honey.
Credibility prevents multiple scenarios for extinction Cohen 3-19 Eliot, Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins, “Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/13 ln In Mr. Obama's second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional military commitments AND what they must and those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons Improved relations with Venezuela spills over– trade is key Tisdall 3/5/13 – writer for the Guardian (Simon, “Death of Hugo Chávez brings chance of fresh start for US and Latin America”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print) Hugo Chávez's departure furnishes Barack Obama with an opportunity to repair US ties with Venezuela AND US is the world's second largest Spanish-speaking country (after Mexico).
Relations are critical to effective earth monitoring – this solves Amazon deforestation and global warming Bander et al. 9 (“Toward the Heavens Latin America’s Emerging Space Progarms”, August 2009, CSIS, *Ashley Bander – M.A. Diplomacy and IR @ Seton Hall University, B.A. Political Science and IR @ Virginia Tech *G. Ryan Faith – B.Sc in Engineering Mechanics @ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, adjunct fellow and former program manager for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, *Vincent Sabathier – senior fellow and director for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, taught space transportation systems @ University Paul Sabatier, *JohanaMendelson Forman – senior associate @ CSIS, Ph.D in Latin American history @ Washington University, Master’s Degree in IR @ Columbia, http://csis.org/files/publication/090730_Mendelson_TowardHeavens_Web.pdf) In this context, the United States is losing anopportunityto exercise its smart powerby not AND region’s massive rain forests through earth observationand other technologies that support these goals.
Warming causes extinction Brandenburg andPaxson ’99 John (physicist and rocket scientist) and Monica (award-winning author and expert on global warming), Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232 One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human AND Mars—red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving. Amazon destruction ensures extinction Takacs, 96 (David, Professor of Environmental Humanities @ California State University, THE IDEA OF DIVERSITY: PHILOSOPHIES OF PARADISE, 1996, pg. 200-201) So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and of itself, as AND end of the next century - not with a bang but a whimper.
Plan is key to sustainable green technology investment – regional agreements Edwards 11 – Brown University Research Fellow and co-founder of Intercambio Climatico Guy, “Climate, energy to dominate US-Latin American relations”, 18 Jul, http://www.trust.org/item/?map=climate-energy-to-dominate-us-latin-american-relations Since the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere AND with Latin American governments, many of which are trailblazing in these areas.
plan Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Venezuela on non energy free trade. solvency Contention 3 is solvency No disads – trade with Venezuela is inevitable due to oil Lilley 13- Sandra Lilley graduated from Brown University with a PhD, 03/06/13, “Friend or Foe? Venezuela – US relations up in the air” http://nbclatino.com/2013/03/06/friend-or-foe-venezuela-us-relations-up-in-the-air/ “What has been interesting is AND 40 percent of their exports, and the relationship will continue,” she adds.
Plan solves relations and boosts the Venezuelan economy Whittington 13 – Mark Whittington is a writer for USA TODAY, (“Death of Chavez Provides Opportunities for Venezuela, U.S.”, March 6, 2013, http://voices.yahoo.com/death-hugo-chavez-provides-opportunities-venezuela-12044527.html?cat=9) Encouraging Venezuela toward friendly relations should become a prime priority of American foreign policy. AND that would helpVenezuela's poor in a far more sustainable manner than government handouts. Venezuela says yes Free trade is key O'Neil 13 –Shannon O’Neil - Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies “Guest Post: Maduro’s Limited Foreign Policy Agenda”, August 2013, Foreign Affairs http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/08/20/guest-post-maduros-limited-foreign-policy-agenda/ In recent years, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has played a leading role in crafting AND may not be in the style that Chávez or Maduro would have wished.
Specifically the mechanism for the plan invokes say yes Schultz 13 – Kylie Schultz is a writer for The International (“The Rocky U.S.-Venezuela Relationship: What Both Countries Could Learn”, March 17 2013, http://www.theinternational.org/articles/370-the-rocky-us-venezuela-relationship-wh) Despite negative “tit-for-tat” relations and searing rhetoric on both AND expulsion of diplomats from each country seems to illustrate stubbornness from both parties.
Venezuela is pragmatic Lees, 13 -- corporate attorney in Washington, DC Kevin, "It’s Diosdado Cabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it," Suffragio, 6-4-13, suffragio.org/2013/06/04/its-diosdado-cabellos-world-the-rest-of-venezuela-is-just-living-in-it/, accessed 7-27-13, mss It’sDiosdadoCabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it Venezuela, just AND ensure his continued role in diverting sufficient gains to himself and his supporters? Say no evidence are about rhetoric not action Auken, 13 – political activist Bill Van, "Venezuela’s Maduro reaches out to big business and Washington," WSWS, 6-7-13, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/07/vene-j07.html, accessed 7-19-13, mss After three months in office, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the handpicked successor of AND has been accompanied by a similar approach to both foreign and domestic capital. Propaganda proves they will say yes Lemaster 9- LIEUTENANT COLONEL DENNIS P. LEMASTER United States Army, (“US AND Engagement bridges the differences of the two nationsand ultimately strengthens the Western Hemisphere. Expelling US embassies was Maduro scapegoating, this is not applicable to the aff—he’ll say yes for economic motives Shapiro 10/8/13 - president of the Institute of the Americas at UC San Diego, formerly U.S. ambassador to Venezuela (Charles, "In Venezuela, it's still 'Yankee go home'", Los Angeles Times, www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-shapiro-venezuela-diplomacy-20131008,0,4818671.story) In the months immediately following Nicolas Maduro's election as president of Venezuela, he seemed AND of the country was left in the dark for almost 24 hours. Trade isn’t affected by rhetoric – recent ambassador spat proves PL 10/7/13 --Prensa Latina is a Latin American News Source, http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=1931991andItemid=1, The former Chargé Affaires of Venezuela in the U.S., CalixtoOrtega, considered AND at preferential prices by the Citgo enterprise, property of the Venezuelan state.
Economic motives proves say yes and that the plan would boost Maduro’s popularity to the public Callahan 13 – former ambassador to Nicaragua, public diplomacy fellow at George Washington University, M.A. American history @ DePaul (Robert, “Life after Chavez”, Chicago Tribune, http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-03-20/opinion/ct-perspec-0321-hugo-20130320_1_nicolas-maduro-venezuelan-voters-hugo-chavez) But now that Chavez is gone, and the country he left behind copes with AND offer an attractive alternative to Chavez's legacy of misguided populism and crude demagoguery.
Venezuela’s key – Chavez’s death opens up a unique opportunity to solve warming and there’s a huge spillover Edwards and Mage 13 (Guy, research fellow at Brown University's centre for environmental studies and is co-founder of Latin America's first multilingual website on climate change, Intercambio Climático. Susanna Mage is a recent graduate from Brown University and is currently interning at Intercambio Climático, Death of Hugo Chávez gives Venezuela a choice on climate change: Will the oil-rich country become a key engineer in a new global climate deal, or will it sabotage progress?” http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2013/mar/07/death-hugo-chavez-venezuela-climate-change)//DR. H Regardless of one's position on el Comandante Hugo Chávez, the death of the Venezuelan AND engineer of an ambitious and equitable global treaty, or as a saboteur.¶
11/2/13
1ac
Tournament: | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge: 1ac Advantage one is Mexico— The plan boosts the Mexican economy—prevents drug trafficking Glassman, 10 (Sasha Glassman, Masters in Latin American studies, certificate in International Trade and Business Law, attorney, Spring 2010, “PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO MULTILATERAL TRADING AGREEMENTS TO ENCOUR-AGE U.S.-MEXICO TRADE IN BIOFUELS”, Lexis) C. Political Atmosphere in Mexico, as one of the United States' largest trading AND future airline demand as caps and regulations begin to affect the airline industry. AND This is especially true due to declining oil revenues Cuellar, 12 (Noor-Hal Cuellar, bioenergy professional and graduate of the University of Cambridge, 3/28/12, “Biofuels in Mexico: the foundations for an unborn industry”, http://www.energias-renovables.com/articulo/biofuels-in-mexico-the-foundations-for-an-20120828) Even though this study was focused specifically in next-generation ethanol development, which AND of urgency towards adding some other sources of energy other than fossil fuels. AND Lack of economic opportunity causes drug cultivation Humphrey, 3 (Chris Humphrey, Guest Lecturer and Researcher @ University of Zurich in Political Science, 2003, “NARCOTICS, ECONOMICS, AND POVERTY IN THE SOUTHERN STATES”, Academia) Why Do Southern Farmers Grow Drugs? All evidence indicates that southern farmers produce opium AND that prevented them from seeking better, more long-term production patterns. AND Only economic development solves—drug trade creates massive instability Weiner, 10 (Andrew Wainer, Senior Immigration Policy Analyst at Bread for the World Institute, 5/24/10, “The Drug Wars”, http://notes.bread.org/2010/05/the-drug-wars.html) The drug trade isn’t something we typically look at Bread for the World Institute and AND are assured an almost endless supply of new recruits and opportunities to corrupt. AND Mexican collapse destroys U.S. global engagement Haddick, 8 (Robert, Managing Editor, Small Wars Journal, former U.S. Marine Corps officer, advisor for the State Department and the National Intelligence Council on irregular warfare issues, former Director of Research at the Fremont Group, http://westhawk.blogspot.com/2008/12/now-that-would-change-everything.html) There is one dynamic in the literature of weak and failing states that has received AND Asia. However, there would be no running from a Mexican collapse. AND That leads to Asian wars—tensions growing—specifically in Korea Lohman, 13 (Walter Lohman, MA in Foreign Affairs @ UVA, 2013, “Honoring America’s Superpower Responsibilities,” http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/2013/06/honoring-americas-superpower-responsibilities) When you withdraw from the world, either by imposing trade barriers or drawing down AND going to have a hand in where and how Europe uses its forces. AND Nuclear war Stratfor, 10 (International Think Tank, “North Korea, South Korea: The Military Balance on the Peninsula”, 5-26, http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100526_north_korea_south_korea_military_balance_peninsula) So the real issue is the potential for escalation — or an accident that could AND tested in the way they might be if the situation escalates much further. AND Risk of miscalc is high—specificallynow is keyto solve Metz, 13 (Steven, Chairman – Regional Strategy and Planning Department and Research Professor of National Security – Strategic Studies Institute, “Strategic Horizons: Thinking the Unthinkable on a Second Korean War”, World Politics Review, 2013, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12786/strategic-horizons-thinking-the-unthinkable-on-a-second-korean-war) Today, North Korea is the most dangerous country on earth and the greatest threat AND two continued mutual trade and investment. Stranger things have happened in statecraft. AND Diplomatic engagement with Asia is critical to solve all transnational issues Mead, 10 (Mead, senior fellow @ the Council on Foreign Relations, 2010 Walter, American Interest, “Obama in Asia”, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2010/11/09/obama-in-asia/) The decision to go to Asia is one that all thinking Americans can and should AND intractable political problems are found on the Asian landmass and its surrounding seas.
Advantage two is corn ethanol It’s usage is increasing—hikes up food prices, causing famine and starvation Mead, 13 (Walter Mead, Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, co-founder of the New American Foundation, Editor-at-Large of The American Interest magazine, former Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, “Ethanol Still a Boondoggle,” July 17, 2013, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/07/17/ethanol-still-a-boondoggle/) The US has a law on the books, the Renewable Fuel Standard, that AND pass the green test, but they haven’t yet proven their commercial viability. AND The plan allows the U.S. to import Mexican biofuels --- they’re uniquely key Glassman, 10 (Sasha Glassman, Masters in Latin American studies, certificate in International Trade and Business Law, attorney, Spring 2010, “PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO MULTILATERAL TRADING AGREEMENTS TO ENCOUR-AGE U.S.-MEXICO TRADE IN BIOFUELS”, Lexis) Biofuels, because of their renewability and perceived minimal carbon contribution, are gaining increased AND room for sustainable development principles to play meaningful roles in trade disputes. n35 AND The plan switches production from corn ethanol --- solves skyrocketing food prices McDonald, 12 (Jeffrey E. McDonald, Juris Doctor and Master of Business Administration degrees from Mississippi College School of Law, and is currently pursuing his Master of Laws at the American University Washington College of Law, 2012, "Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States", ILSP Law Journal, www.wcl.american.edu/journal/ilsp/v1/3/mcdonald.pdf) 2. Concerns Regarding Production and Use of Agricultural Biofuel In addition to concerns raised AND , must evolve to recognize environmental sustainability as another hallmark of sound agricultural policy AND High prices cause extinction Klare, 12 — professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College (Michael T., “Michael T. Klare: The Hunger Wars in Our Future”, 8/8/12, http://www.guernicamag.com/daily/michael-t-klare-the-hunger-wars-in-our-future/, Deech) This, however, is just the beginning of the likely consequences: if history AND global economy and producing yet more worldwide misery, with unpredictable social consequences. AND Famine also leads to extinction Lugar, 4 (Richard G., former U.S. Senator – Indiana and Former Chair – Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “Plant Power”, Our Planet, 14(3), http://www.unep.org/ourplanet/imgversn/143/lugar.html) In a world confronted by global terrorism, turmoil in the Middle East, burgeoning AND in the survival of billions of people and the health of our planet. AND Corn ethanol supports industrial factor farms—causes anti-biotic resistance FWW, 7 (Food and Water Watch and Network for New Energy Choices In collaboration with Institute for Energy and the Environment at Vermont Law School, 7/31/07, “THE RUSH TO ETHANOL: NOT ALL BIOFUELS ARE CREATED EQUAL”, http://kansas.sierraclub.org/wind/rushtoethanol-report.pdf) At the same time, industrial-scale livestock operations, or factory farms, AND debt payments on barns and facilities, waste, and dead animal disposal. AND That causes extinction Collins 98 (Sharon, Health Editor – Sunday Mirror Newspapers, Former Medical Correspondent, “'Doomsday' fear as we over-use antibiotics”, 4-12, Lexis) THE golden age of antibiotics, the 20th Century's wonder drug, is over. AND pipeline to replace the life-saving ones to which resistance is developing." The United States federal government should offer to Mexico to facilitate a substantial increase in United States’ importation of Mexican non-corn biofuels.
Advantage three is trade credibility— The plan strengthens federal commitment to biofuels --- results in broader energy trade liberalization Glassman, 10 (Sasha Glassman, Masters in Latin American studies, certificate in International Trade and Business Law, attorney, Spring 2010, “PROPOSED AMENDMENTS TO MULTILATERAL TRADING AGREEMENTS TO ENCOUR-AGE U.S.-MEXICO TRADE IN BIOFUELS”, Lexis) C. Proposed NAFTA Changes Like proposals relating to amendments to the WTO, works AND it more amenable to lowering barriers to trade in the area of energy. AND Credibility low now due to energy restrictions Beetz, 12 (Becky Beetz, 8/22/12, “China concludes US solar subsidies violate WTO rules”, http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/china-concludes-us-solar-subsidies-violate-wto-rules_100008155/#axzz2d8f2h8uO) MOFCON refers to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) has concluded that 6 renewable energy subsidies in the U.S. violate provisions made under the WTO Subsidy and Countervailing Measures Agreement and the Article 3 of 1994 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. It is now seeking to have them cancelled. Following the launch of the U.S.-China trade case by SolarWorld in AND agreements, and give fair treatment to renewable energy products exported from China." AND Credibility prevents multiple scenarios for extinction Cohen 3-19 Eliot, Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins, “Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/13 ln In Mr. Obama's second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional military commitments AND what they must and those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons AND Energy subsidies co-opt efforts to solve warming and decimate trade credibility NFTC, 7 (National Foreign Trade Council, December 2007, “WTO – Compatibility of Four Categories of U.S. Climate Change Policy”, http://www.nftc.org/default/trade/WTO/Climate20Change20Paper.pdf) U.S. domestic policies to address climate change can, in principle, AND make WTO disputes less likely to arise in response to aggressive domestic provisions.
AND Collapses global trade Lincicome, 12 (Scott. Trade Attorney at White and Case. “Countervailing Calamity: How to Stop the Global Subsidy Race” CATO Policy Analysis #710, 10/9/12) Third, U.S. subsidies also raise serious concerns under international trade rules AND resources on long legal battles and tit-for-tat trade disputes. AND Free trade creates structural disincentives for war Griswold, 11 – director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, (Daniel, “Free Trade and the Global Middle Class,” Hayek Society Journal Vol. 9, http://www.cato.org/pubs/articles/Hayek-Society-Journal-Griswold.pdf) Our more globalized world has also yielded a “peace dividend.” It may not AND and less likely those gains will be destroyed by civil conflict and war. AND Trade credibility is critical to solve warming Bergsten, 8 (C. Fred Bergsten, The director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Fred has been one of the most widely quoted think-tank economists in the world over many years. He testifies frequently before Congress; he is cochairman of the private sector advisory group to the United States India Trade Policy Forum; he was chairman of the Eminent Persons Group of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum for a number of years, and authored its three reports recommending free and open trade in the region. Fred was Assistant Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs and has authored, coauthored, or edited 38 books. 5/20/2008, “US Trade Policy Credibility Undercut by Congress”, http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pp/005.pdf) Trade is central to foreign policy, certainly here in the United States but even AND global-warming initiative, I think, is at risk from this. AND Extinction Brandenburg and Paxson ’99 John (physicist and rocket scientist) and Monica (award-winning author and expert on global warming), Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232 One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human AND Mars—red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving. AND Feedbacks are net positive --- additional emissions cause runaway warming Hanson 8 (James E., Head – NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Science – Columbia University, “Tipping point: Perspective of a Scientist”, April, http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/StateOfWild_20080428.pdf) Fast feedbacks—changes that occur quickly in response to temperature change—amplify the AND as glaciers disappear. A major casualty in all this will be wildlife. AND Global warming is real and human induced --- consensus agrees Anderegg et al 10 – PhD Candidate @ Stanford in Biology (William, “Expert credibility in climate change,” National Academy of Sciences, p. 12107-12109)BB Preliminary reviews of scientific literature and surveys of cli- mate scientists indicate striking agreement AND discussions in media, policy, and public forums regarding anthropogenic climate change. AND It’s not inevitable --- every increment of CO2 is key Matthews and Soloman 4/26 (H. Damon Matthews and Susan Solomon, Associate Professor and 2009/2010 University Research Fellow in the Department of Geography Planning and Environment at Concordia and an atmospheric chemist, working for most of her career at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 4/26/13, “Irreversible does not mean unavoidable”, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/340/6131/438.full.pdf?keytype=refandsiteid=sciandijkey=X0PL7KHfd92FH6, t.c.) Understanding how decreases in CO2 emissions would affect global temperatures has been hampered in recent AND the same time scale as the political decisions that lead to the reductions. AND Only the plan’s technology and methodology solves Soule 95 -Professor of Environmental Studies (Michael E., Professor and Chair of Environmental Studies, UC-Santa Cruz, REINVITINtG NATURE? RESPONSES TO POSTMODERN DECONSTRUCTION, Eds: Michael E. Soule and Gary Lease, p. 159-160) Should We Actively Manage Wildlands and Wild Waters? The decision has already been made AND So if we must manage, where do we look for ethical guidance? AND Warming magnifies all impacts and makes global conflicts inevitable Ginsborg 12 – Mikkel Funder, Signe Marie Cold-Ravnkilde and Ida Peters Ginsborg - in collaboration with Nanna Callisen Bang, Denmark Institute for International Studies, 2012, "ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT IN DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION EXPERIENCES FROM NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT" www.diis.dk/graphics/Publications/Reports2012/RP2012-04-Addressing-climate-change_web.jpg.pdf 2.2 Climate change as a con?ict multiplier¶ Climate change is therefore best AND actors such as governments – thereby increasing the risk and intensity of con?ict.
1/18/14
1ac NT
Tournament: NT | Round: 2 | Opponent: Some kids | Judge: Some judge Advantage one is Trade
Scenario one is Russia
Russian trade influence in Latin America is growing Nechepurenko 13 – Ivan Nechepurenko is a writer for the MoscowTimes, (“ Russia seeks to Restore Influence in Latin America May 30, 2013, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/article/480827.html) Russia has demonstrated its increasing leverage in Latin America with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meeting AND America, and we will see more Latin American goods in our stores."
That causes the development of a Venezuela-Russia space program which decimates US tech and space leadership Poblete 8 – JD @ George Mason, Master’s degree in International Affairs/US AND . technologyandknow-howand transfer it toCuba, Venezuela, or even Brazil?
Space leadership is the lynchpin of hegemony Dinerman, 11 (Taylor, Consultant for Department of Defense and Reporter, “How the End of NASA Affects US National Security”, 8/1/11, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2299/nasa-us-national-security) Space exploration is not only critical in refusing to surrender the battlefield of space – AND direction its ability to help keep America secure and prosperous will inevitably diminish.
Hegemony ensures coalition building and deters new threats – the alternative is global war Zhangand Shi, 11 – Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. (America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, 1/22/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/) This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, but it AND forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.
Independently – the prevention of Russian expansion in Latin America is key to avoid conflict Walle 12 – Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Walter, “Russia Turns to the South for Military and Economic Alliances,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 5/8/12, http://www.coha.org/russia-turns-to-the-south-for-military-and-economic-alliances/)//Bwang Quite clearly, Russia’s interest in Latin America is escalating. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey AND alone among Latin American countries in recognizing the independence of the new republics.
Extinction Bostrom 2 Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html A much greater existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in AND preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century. The plan is key to eliminate Russian influence Blank 9 – Professor of Russian National Security Studies @ Strategic Studies Institute, MA and Ph.D in Russia History @ U Chicago (Stephen, “Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US’s Neighborhood”, April 2009,Russie.Nei.Visions Number 38, PDF) In analyzing the nature ofRussia’s relations with Latin America, a few conclusions can be AND the US should reverse those outcomesand demonstrate what liberal democracy can truly accomplish. Scenario 2 is Iran Iran is cooperating with Venezuela on cyber terror now—they will attack the U.S. power grid Ryan11 Mauro 12/23/11 –Former Intelligence analyst and director of the Asymmetric Warfare and Intelligence center.--Hired as a geopolitical analyst. He has a B.A. in intelligence studies and a master’s degree in political science at American military University“Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the Cyber Threat” http://frontpagemag.com/2011/ryan-mauro/iran-venezuela-cuba-and-the-cyber-threat/2/ Cuban,Iranian and Venezuelan officials have been caught actively considering cyber attacks on the AND know about, then what are they doing that we don’t know about? Now is key – Iran’s network is fragile – increasing trade reverses Iranian encroachment Fite et al 13 -Coughlin-Schulte6/9/13 – Interns @ Burkey Chair in Strategy @ CSIS, *studying IR and Arab studies @ Georgetown (“US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Periphery States”, http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-latin-america-africa-and-periphery-states) Iran has worked to build relationshipswithother politically isolatedgovernmentswith which it has somewhat of an ideological AND to contain and isolate Iran, Tehran’s web is fragile and possibly illusory. Vulnerability to cyber terror is increasing CRO et.al. 11 The Catastrophic-Research-Organization-Forum member companies are large multi-national insurance companies. -The CRO Forum is a high-level discussion group formed and attended by Chief Risk Officers of major Europe “Power Blackout Risks¶ Risk Management Options” Emerging Risk November.2011 (Contract Research Organization)https://www.allianz.com/v_1339677769000/media/responsibility/documents/position_paper_power_blackout_risks.pdf Power supply industry is classified as a critical infrastructure. These are organisational and physical AND used not only by individualcriminals or terrorists, but also by foreign states.
4 Impacts— First is Electricity failures: Smith 2k (Gar staff writer at the Earth Island Journal, winter proquest)JC The third type could happen if the electricity fails. Reactors depend on off- AND left without power. In some regions, the blackout lasted several weeks.
Extinction Wasserman 1 (Harvey journalist and author of The Last Energy War “America’s Terrorist Nuclear Threat to Itself” http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2001/10/00_wasserman_nuclear-threat.htm)JC The intense radioactive heat within today's operating reactors is the hottest anywhere on the planet AND very core of our life and of all future generations must be shut down
Second is the Economy: CRO et.al. 11The Catastrophic-Research-Organization-Forum member companies are large multi-national insurance companies. -The CRO Forum is a high-level discussion group formed and attended by Chief Risk Officers of major Europe “Power Blackout Risks¶ Risk Management Options” Emerging Risk November.2011 (Contract Research Organization)https://www.allianz.com/v_1339677769000/media/responsibility/documents/position_paper_power_blackout_risks.pdf Electricity is the backbone ofeach industrialisedsociety and economy.Modern countries are not used to AND the impacts would escalate as a function of the duration of the interruption.
Global nuclear war Royal, 10 — Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense (Jedediah, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises?”, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215, 2010) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.
The Third impact is the chemical and manufacturing industry CRO et.al. 11The Catastrophic-Research-Organization-Forum member companies are large multi-national insurance companies. -The CRO Forum is a high-level discussion group formed and attended by Chief Risk Officers of major Europe “Power Blackout Risks¶ Risk Management Options” Emerging Risk November.2011 (Contract Research Organization)https://www.allianz.com/v_1339677769000/media/responsibility/documents/position_paper_power_blackout_risks.pdf Most critical systems such as hospitals, first responder facilities, water and sewage systems AND to many homes burning while there is no water for emergency response teams.
The chemical industry is key to prevent extinction – uniquely solves bioterror Baum 99 (Rudy M. Baum, CandEN Washington, “Millennium Special Report,” Chemical and Engineering News, American Chemical Society, Volume 77, Number 49, December 6, 1999, http://pubs.acs.org/cen/hotarticles/cenear/991206/7749spintro2.html) Here is the fundamental challenge we face: The world's growingand agingpopulation must be fed AND mysteries and provide for humanity's basic and not-so-basic needs.
Manufacturing also is key to detection and prevention of bioterror Morgan 3 (Sarah, East Texas Baptist University, Silverio Colon, Arizona State University Department of Bioengineering College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Judith A. Ruffner and John A. Emerson, Organic Materials Department, “Biomanufacturing: A State of the Technology Review” September 2003, http://www.che.ncsu.edu/academics/concentrations/documents/Biomanufacturing-AStateofTechRev.pdf) Perhaps the most unique and advantageous aspect of biomanufacturing is the excellent control that may AND National Laboratories has the expertise to contribute to any one of these fields.
Extinction Matheny, 7 – former associate at Oxford, MPJ from Hopkins (Jason, published in Risk Analysis 2007; 27(5): 1335-1344, “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” http://jgmatheny.org/matheny_extinction_risk.htm) Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed AND such experiments because the bene?ts do not seem to be worth the risks. Fourth is cyberwar Fritz 9 (Jason, Captain – U.S. Army, Researcher – International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and M.A. in International Relations – Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control”, July, www.icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.doc) The US uses the two-man rule to achieve a higher level of security AND of mass DDoS attacks, real world protests, and accusations between governments. Advantage two is relations
The plan solves relations and credibility and that spills over to the entirety of LatinAmerica Griffin 13 – writer for the Harvard Crimson (John, “Engage with Venezuela”, 4/2/13 http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/4/3/Harvard-Venezuela-Chavez-death/#) When Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez died in early February, his country was thrown into AND vinegar—it’s high time we started trying to catch them with honey.
Credibility prevents multiple scenarios for extinction Cohen 3-19 Eliot, Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins, “Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/13 ln In Mr. Obama's second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional military commitments AND what they must and those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons Improved relations with Venezuela spills over– trade is key Tisdall 3/5/13 – writer for the Guardian (Simon, “Death of Hugo Chávez brings chance of fresh start for US and Latin America”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print) Hugo Chávez's departure furnishes Barack Obama with an opportunity to repair US ties with Venezuela AND US is the world's second largest Spanish-speaking country (after Mexico).
Relations are critical to effective earth monitoring – this solves Amazon deforestation and global warming Bander et al. 9 (“Toward the Heavens Latin America’s Emerging Space Progarms”, August 2009, CSIS, *Ashley Bander – M.A. Diplomacy and IR @ Seton Hall University, B.A. Political Science and IR @ Virginia Tech *G. Ryan Faith – B.Sc in Engineering Mechanics @ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, adjunct fellow and former program manager for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, *Vincent Sabathier – senior fellow and director for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, taught space transportation systems @ University Paul Sabatier, *JohanaMendelson Forman – senior associate @ CSIS, Ph.D in Latin American history @ Washington University, Master’s Degree in IR @ Columbia, http://csis.org/files/publication/090730_Mendelson_TowardHeavens_Web.pdf) In this context, the United States is losing anopportunityto exercise its smart powerby not AND region’s massive rain forests through earth observationand other technologies that support these goals.
Warming causes extinction Brandenburg andPaxson ’99 John (physicist and rocket scientist) and Monica (award-winning author and expert on global warming), Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232 One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human AND Mars—red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving. Amazon destruction ensures extinction Takacs, 96 (David, Professor of Environmental Humanities @ California State University, THE IDEA OF DIVERSITY: PHILOSOPHIES OF PARADISE, 1996, pg. 200-201) So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and of itself, as AND end of the next century - not with a bang but a whimper. The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Venezuela on non-oil free trade. Contention 3 is solvency No disads – trade with Venezuela is inevitable due to oil Lilley 13- Sandra Lilley graduated from Brown University with a PhD, 03/06/13, “Friend or Foe? Venezuela – US relations up in the air” http://nbclatino.com/2013/03/06/friend-or-foe-venezuela-us-relations-up-in-the-air/ “What has been interesting is that AND relationship will continue,” she adds.
Plan solves relations and boosts the Venezuelan economy Whittington 13 – Mark Whittington is a writer for USA TODAY, (“Death of Chavez Provides Opportunities for Venezuela, U.S.”, March 6, 2013, http://voices.yahoo.com/death-hugo-chavez-provides-opportunities-venezuela-12044527.html?cat=9) Encouraging Venezuela toward friendly relations should become a prime priority of American foreign policy. AND that would helpVenezuela's poor in a far more sustainable manner than government handouts. Venezuela says yes Free trade is key O'Neil 13 –Shannon O’Neil - Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies “Guest Post: Maduro’s Limited Foreign Policy Agenda”, August 2013, Foreign Affairs http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/08/20/guest-post-maduros-limited-foreign-policy-agenda/ In recent years, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has played a leading role in crafting AND may not be in the style that Chávez or Maduro would have wished.
Specifically the mechanism for the plan invokes say yes Schultz 13 – Kylie Schultz is a writer for The International (“The Rocky U.S.-Venezuela Relationship: What Both Countries Could Learn”, March 17 2013, http://www.theinternational.org/articles/370-the-rocky-us-venezuela-relationship-wh) Despite negative “tit-for-tat” relations and searing rhetoric on both AND expulsion of diplomats from each country seems to illustrate stubbornness from both parties.
Venezuela is pragmatic Lees, 13 -- corporate attorney in Washington, DC Kevin, "It’s Diosdado Cabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it," Suffragio, 6-4-13, suffragio.org/2013/06/04/its-diosdado-cabellos-world-the-rest-of-venezuela-is-just-living-in-it/, accessed 7-27-13, mss It’sDiosdadoCabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it Venezuela, just AND ensure his continued role in diverting sufficient gains to himself and his supporters? Say no evidence are about rhetoric not action Auken, 13 – political activist Bill Van, "Venezuela’s Maduro reaches out to big business and Washington," WSWS, 6-7-13, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/07/vene-j07.html, accessed 7-19-13, mss After three months in office, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the handpicked successor of AND has been accompanied by a similar approach to both foreign and domestic capital. Propaganda proves they will say yes Lemaster 9- LIEUTENANT COLONEL DENNIS P. LEMASTER United States Army, (“US AND Engagement bridges the differences of the two nationsand ultimately strengthens the Western Hemisphere. Expelling US embassies was Maduro scapegoating, this is not applicable to the aff—he’ll say yes for economic motives Shapiro 10/8/13 - president of the Institute of the Americas at UC San Diego, formerly U.S. ambassador to Venezuela (Charles, "In Venezuela, it's still 'Yankee go home'", Los Angeles Times, www.latimes.com/opinion/commentary/la-oe-shapiro-venezuela-diplomacy-20131008,0,4818671.story) In the months immediately following Nicolas Maduro's election as president of Venezuela, he seemed AND of the country was left in the dark for almost 24 hours. Trade isn’t affected by rhetoric – recent ambassador spat proves PL 10/7/13 --Prensa Latina is a Latin American News Source, http://www.plenglish.com/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=viewandid=1931991andItemid=1, The former Chargé Affaires of Venezuela in the U.S., CalixtoOrtega, considered AND at preferential prices by the Citgo enterprise, property of the Venezuelan state.
Maduro’s credibility is terminally bankrupt– the plan is key to revival Christy 13Patrick Christy, senior policy analyst at the Foreign Policy Institute, 6/13, 2013, “U.S. Overtures to Maduro Hurt Venezuela’s Democratic Opposition” http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/06/13/us-overtures-to-chavez-successor-maduro-hurt-venezuelas-opposition n the margins of a multilateral summit in Guatemala last week, Secretary of State AND support. It's time the Obama administration rethink this hasty reset with Maduro. Economic motives proves say yes and that the plan would boost Maduro’s popularity to the public Callahan 13 – former ambassador to Nicaragua, public diplomacy fellow at George Washington University, M.A. American history @ DePaul (Robert, “Life after Chavez”, Chicago Tribune, http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-03-20/opinion/ct-perspec-0321-hugo-20130320_1_nicolas-maduro-venezuelan-voters-hugo-chavez) But now that Chavez is gone, and the country he left behind copes with AND offer an attractive alternative to Chavez's legacy of misguided populism and crude demagoguery.
And if anything – not saying yes boosts Maduro’s credibility and removes opposition Nagel 13 (Juan, Venezuela Writer – Transitions Blog at Foreign Policy, Co-Author – “Blogging the Revolution”, “Why Does Venezuela Want Snowden So Badly?”, Foreign Policy, 7-11, http://transitions.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/11/why_does_venezuela_want_snowden_so_badly) The need to appease the radicals within chavismois a major factor in Venezuela's approach to AND took off from Venezuela in 1976 and currently living in the United States. Maduro’s presence stabilizes Venezuela – allowing the opposition to gain influence breeds instability. Aram Aharonian, 7-04-2013, Venezuela activist, translated by Tamara Pearson, a journalist for Venezuela Analysis, “Venezuela Becomes Stable and Governable Thanks to a Solid Social Base,” http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/9802 Venezuela Becomes Stable and Governable Thanks to a Solid Social Base Beyond the real serious AND also managed to dialogue with opposition sectors (the business ones among them). Venezuelan instability causes a litany of impacts. Max G. Manwaring, 10-xx-2005, holds the General Douglas MacArthur Chair and is Professor of Military Strategy at the U.S. Army War College. He is a retired U.S. Army colonel and an Adjunct Professor of International Politics at Dickinson College. He has served in various civilian and military positions, including the U.S. Army War College, the U.S. Southern Command, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Dr. Manwaring is the author and co-author of several articles, chapters, and reports dealing with political-military affairs, democratization and global ungovernability, and Latin American security affairs. He is also the editor or co-editor of El Salvador at War; Beyond Declaring Victory and Coming Home: The Challenges of Peace and Stability Operations; Deterrence in the 21st Century; and The Search for Security: A U.S. Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First Century. Dr. Manwaring holds a B.S. in Economics, a B.S. in Political Science, an M.A. in Political Science, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Illinois. He is also a graduate of the U.S. Army War College. “Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare,” http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB628.pdf Chávez understands all this. He understands that war is no longer limited to using AND and their associated problems endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.65
10/11/13
2ac Cards - Niles
Tournament: Niles | Round: 1 | Opponent: Teams | Judge: US and China have a cooperative non-zero sum relationship but China has already been pushed out of Venezuela Hilton 2013 (Isabel; China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge; Feb; Norwegian Peacebuilding Center;www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aad9.pdf) The United States, distracted elsewhere in recent years,¶ has reacted calmly to date AND eventually voted in favour, it did not otherwise back the¶ campaign. Us is outpacing China, it isn’t a zero sum game specifically in Venezuela, and Chinese methods kill Latin American economies Castenada 11 - Sebastian Castaneda is a graduate student at the University of Hong Kong and a contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus, (“South America awake to risks of China ties, April 21, 2011http:www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MD21Ad01.html)sawyer The dynamics of Washington's engagement with Latin America, in spite of historic grievances, AND China's engagement results in more influence, Beijing's methods also decrease its effectiveness. China’s drive for resources are environmentally harmful – uniquely they will destroy the Amazon through resource grabs Chinese presence enables cyber-terror attacks. Ellis ’13 (R. Evan Ellis is associate professor for Hemispheric Defense Studies, “China's New Backyard: Does Washington realize how deeply Beijing has planted a flag?” JUNE 6, 2013, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america) The challenge to Washington from China's presence in the region also extends beyond economics and AND represent potential assets in a global asymmetric warfare campaign against the United States. Extinction Fritz 9 (Jason, Captain – U.S. Army, Researcher – International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and M.A. in International Relations – Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control”, July, www.icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.doc) The US uses the two-man rule to achieve a higher level of security AND of mass DDoS attacks, real world protests, and accusations between governments. Chinese influence sparks Taiwan conflict Erikson and Chen, 7 (Daniel, Master’s in Public Policy @ Harvard, Senior Policy Associate @ Inter-American Dialogue, Janice, BA Political Science @ UC Berkeley, student @ Georgetown Law and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, “China, Taiwan, and the Battle for Latin America”, 2007,http://ww.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/Erikson-Chen-120(2).pdf) When longtime Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega triumphed in Nicaragua’s presidential election in November 2006, AND U.S. policy of this intensifying competition in their own backyard.
That causes global nuclear war Glaser, 11 — Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University (Charles, “Will China's Rise Lead to War?: Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011, lexis) ACCOMMODATION ON TAIWAN? THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be AND military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.
Maduro’s regime is going to collapse – the plan is key to revival Christy 13Patrick Christy, senior policy analyst at the Foreign Policy Institute, 6/13, 2013, “U.S. Overtures to Maduro Hurt Venezuela’s Democratic Opposition” http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2013/06/13/us-overtures-to-chavez-successor-maduro-hurt-venezuelas-opposition n the margins of a multilateral summit in Guatemala last week, Secretary of State AND support. It's time the Obama administration rethink this hasty reset with Maduro.
2ac - ambas elect cp Engagement now is key --- the plan prevents misperception and is bipartisan Spetalnick 13 Matt Spetalnick – White House correspondent who has covered news on four continents for Reuters, from Latin American coups and drug wars – Reuter’s – March 6th, 2013 – “Despite new hopes, U.S. treads cautiously after death of Venezuela's Chavez” –http:uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/uk-venezuela-chavez-usa-idUKBRE92504920130306 President BarackObama quickly reached out to Venezuelans, expressing an interest in a "constructive AND an opportunity for a new chapter in U.S.-Venezuelan relations." Intervention fails --- dialogue is a pre-requisite Spetalnick 13 Matt Spetalnick – White House correspondent who has covered news on four continents for Reuters, from Latin American coups and drug wars – Reuter’s – March 6th, 2013 – “Despite new hopes, U.S. treads cautiously after death of Venezuela's Chavez” –http:uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/uk-venezuela-chavez-usa-idUKBRE92504920130306 But any overt U.S. effort to intervene in Venezuela's politics now would AND is an ending of an era or the beginning of a new one." The CP feeds into opposition and will get overturned Meacham ’13(Carl Meacham is the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies– “The Kerry-Jaua Meeting: Resetting U.S.-Venezuela Relations?” – Jun 21, 2013 – http://csis.org/publication/kerry-jaua-meeting-resetting-us-venezuela-relations Q3: Should the United States pursue exchanging ambassadors? A3: If the United AND Venezuelan opposition as U.S. government support for the Maduro government.
2ac - c02 ag You’ve got the disad backwards -- warrming kills agriculture – turns war and overcomes all defense. Adaptation can’t solve. Zhang et al 07 – professor of geography at University of Hong Kong/ Peter Brecke from Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Tech/others (David D., “Global Climate Change, War, and Population Decline in Recent Human History”, 10/23/07; http://www.pnas.org/content/104/49/19214.full#aff-1)//Beddow Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts AND war outbreak and population decline with empirical data at global and continental scales.
Negative impacts outweigh the positive – our evidence is comparative. MAFF 07 – Japanese Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, Research Council (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, “Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and Possible Countermeasures in Japan”, Report on Research and Development in Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries No. 23, 2007; http://www.s.affrc.go.jp/docs/e/pdf/no23e.pdf)//Beddow The report of Working Group 2 on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability reveals that global AND The negative impact of global warming will be greater than the positive impact.
2ac -- apeasement da Obama is appeasing Venezuela – cooperation Canto 06/15/13 (Host of Canto Talk, a radio show which discusses domestic and foreign policy issues. Also is the author of the book "Cubanos in Wisconsin", "The Obama administration has a funny way of rewarding those who call us 'imperialistas'", http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/06/the_obama_administration_has_a_funny_way_of_rewarding_those_who_call_us_imperialistas.html) President Maduro of Venezuela has spent the last few months warning his people that " AND Maduro regime is extremely confusing. Also, the timing makes no sense! No US credibility now—inaction in Syria undermined US legitimacy Singh 13-- managing director of The Washington Institute (Michael, “U.S. Credibility on Iran at Stake in Syria”, The Washington Institute, 6/12, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/u.s.-credibility-on-iran-at-stake-in-syria) Likewise, many analysts were surprised by Hezbollah's open admission of its deep involvement in AND a strategy in the Middle East; the United States must as well. The United States have been using a policy of appeasement for 30 years – Iran Proves Holleran, 2012 – journalist for the LA times and the San Francisco Inquirer (Scott, “30 years of Appeasing Iran”, CNN News, 10/1, http://cnsnews.com/blog/scott-holleran/30-years-appeasing-iran)//RG Every Iranianleader since Khomeini has threatened America with jihad—including by AND reality of an atomic Iran, we need an urgent end to appeasement.
2ac - t must be condo We meet – trade is a qpq Caballero et. Al 2K – (José, Maria, Materne, “International Trade: Some Basic Theories and Concepts”, FAO, http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x7352e/x7352e02.htm)//JH *note this card is a lot longer than what’s here In general, policy-makers do not make trade concessions without a quid pro AND -makers' exposure to pressures from political constituencies who may suffer from international competition
It doesn’t have to be conditional Shirk, 9 – Director, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) Ho Miu Lam Professor, School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego (Susan, “North Korea Inside Out: The Case for Economic Engagement” December, http://asiasociety.org/files/pdf/North_Korea_Inside_Out.pdf) While some engagement should continue to be conditioned on progress on the nuclear and other AND without any conditionality, as first steps in a process of phased engagement.
2ac - china cp Counterplan crowds out American influence and kills energy security Daniel P. Erikson, 6-7-xx-2006, senior associate for U .S. policy at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington, D.C., has published more than fifty scholarly articles and essays and in publications including the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Miami Herald, “A Dragon in the Andes? China, Venezuela, and U.S. Energy Security,” http://www.questia.com/library/1G1-150356901/a-dragon-in-the-andes-china-venezuela-and-u-s#articleDetails IN AUGUST 2005, the Venezuelan daily El Universal published an interview with Ambassador Ju AND region, with potentially profound consequences for U.S. energy security.
Collapse energy security sparks nuclear conflict Lendman 07 (Stephen, renowned author and research associate at the Center for Research on Globalization, “Resource Wars - Can We Survive Them?”, July 2007, http://www.rense.com/general76/-resrouce.htm) *This card edited to remove holocaust rhetoric which we do not endorse With the world's energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports, and AND , or at least a big part of it, would have survived.
2ac - to joann's neolib Neolib solves war Bandow 5 (Doug, Senior Fellow at Cato, “Spreading Capitalism is Good for Peace”,http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5193) In a world that seems constantly aflame, one naturally asks: What causes peace AND causes of conflict vary, the relationship between economic liberty and peace remains.
Shift from neoliberalism causes transition wars Kothari 82 – Professor of Political Science Professor of political science at the University of Delhi, Towards a Just Social Order, p. 571 Attempts at global economic reform could also lead to a world racked by increasing turbulence AND regimes, encouraging regional conflagrations and setting the stage for eventual global holocaust.
Neoliberalism is sustainable and self-correcting Goklany 7-Julia Simon Fellow @ the Political Economy Research Center Indur, Reason.com, “Now for the Good News,” 3/23/2007, http://reason.com/archives/2007/03/23/now-for-the-good-news Environmentalists and globalization foes are united in their fear that greater population and consumption of AND exchange of knowledge, technology, people, and goods breed stagnation or regression
Alternatives to capitalism end in war and genocide Rummel 4 – prof. emeritus of political science at the University of Hawaii Rudolph, The Killing Machine that is Marxism, Online Of all religions, secular and otherwise, that of Marxism has been by far AND escaped Marxist countries as refugees was an unequaled vote against Marxist utopian pretensions.
Wealth inequality isn’t inherently bad – neoliberalism creates a floor on global poverty Cudd 10 – Dean of Humanities and Professor of Philosophy @ KU Anne Cudd, “Capitalism for and Against: A Feminist Debate,” pg. 81-82 Two objections may be raised to entrepreneurial capitalism: first, that it creates greater AND inadequate education, unemployment) that lead to social instability and human misery.
Neoliberalism is inevitable and any attempt to reform it will fail – Alt can’t solve Snyder, He is a Professor of Political Science at Brown University 2001 (Richard, Politics After Neoliberalism: Reregulation in Mexico Pub. Cambridge University Press in 2001 pg 216)JS In sum, cross-sectoral variation in the number of producers, the flexibility AND societal interest as they compete to control the policy areas vacated by neoliberalism.
Cap solves disease Cudd 10 – Dean of Humanities and Professor of Philosophy @ KU Anne Cudd, “Capitalism for and Against: A Feminist Debate,” pg. 40-41 For instance, among the major impediments to public health in the nineteenth century were AND governments that channeled this wealth in order to bring about the health transition.
A pandemic will kill off all humans. In the past, humans have indeed AND could only infect birds — into a human-viable strain (10).
Growth solves ecological collapse Zey 98 Michael G. Professor of management in the School of Business Administration at Montclair State University and executive director of the Expansionary Institute, Seizing the Future: The Dawn of the Macroindustrial Era. 2nd Edition, pp. 37-38
Third, growth itself contains the solutions to the problems it produces. Supporting this AND technologies, such as the cleanest of all energy sources, nuclear power. Globalization is inevitable and entrenched worldwide Sacchetti13(Clara Sacchetti, “Introduction: The Economy as Cultural System: Theory, Capitalism, Crisis” Bloomsbury Academic, 2013, Google Books) MR Despite these recent public discussions, capitalism remains a marginal, somewhat subversive, term AND everyday thinking that is similarly free of friction: well oiled and uncomplicated. neoliberalism is the chief pacifying and stabilizing force in Latin America Parish and Peceny, Professors of Political Science ,University of New Mexico, respectively 02-- (Randall and Mark, “Kantian Liberalism and the Collective Defense of Democracy in Latin America”, Journal of Peace Research 39:2, 2002, http://jpr.sagepub.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/content/39/2/229.full.pdf)//AS We argue that systemic forces are becoming increasingly important in shaping a liberal peace in AND integrated them in a theoretical framework that draws explicitly on the liberal argument. Foreign Aid is necessary to improve living standards throughout the world, if the plan can’t result in the alternative than neither can aid Sachs 09(Jeffrey David Sachs is an American economist and Director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University. “Can foreign aid reduce poverty” http://www.earth.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/about/director/2009/Controversies20in20Globalization20Chapter203_Can20foreign20aid20reduce20poverty.pdf)//BK) In the broadest terms, national and international efforts to promote economic development around the AND the infrastructure (roads, ports, power) needed to support trade.
Strong US growth is key to promoting an American economic model---the alternative is mercantilism, which destroys economic cooperation and risks protectionism---cap solves evey impact Posen 9 – Deputy director and senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (Adam, “Economic leadership beyond the crisis,” http://clients.squareeye.com/uploads/foresight/documents/PN20USA_FINAL_LR_1.pdf)
In the postwar period, US power and prestige, beyond the nation's military might AND rise to the challenge, it should concentrate on the following priority measures.
2ac -- to joanns china soi da US and China have a cooperative non-zero sum relationship but China has already been pushed out of Venezuela Hilton 2013 (Isabel; China in Latin America: Hegemonic challenge; Feb; Norwegian Peacebuilding Center;www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aad9.pdf) The United States, distracted elsewhere in recent years,¶ has reacted calmly to date AND eventually voted in favour, it did not otherwise back the¶ campaign. Us is outpacing China, it isn’t a zero sum game specifically in Venezuela, and Chinese methods kill Latin American economies Castenada 11 - Sebastian Castaneda is a graduate student at the University of Hong Kong and a contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus, (“South America awake to risks of China ties, April 21, 2011http:www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MD21Ad01.html)sawyer The dynamics of Washington's engagement with Latin America, in spite of historic grievances, AND China's engagement results in more influence, Beijing's methods also decrease its effectiveness. Chinese presence enables cyber-terror attacks. Ellis ’13 (R. Evan Ellis is associate professor for Hemispheric Defense Studies, “China's New Backyard: Does Washington realize how deeply Beijing has planted a flag?” JUNE 6, 2013,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/06/china_s_new_backyard_latin_america) The challenge to Washington from China's presence in the region also extends beyond economics and AND represent potential assets in a global asymmetric warfare campaign against the United States. Extinction Fritz 9 (Jason, Captain – U.S. Army, Researcher – International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, and M.A. in International Relations – Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control”, July, www.icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.doc) The US uses the two-man rule to achieve a higher level of security AND of mass DDoS attacks, real world protests, and accusations between governments. Chinese influence will spur Senkaku conflict Gertz 13 -Bill Gertz is an American editor, columnist and reporter for The Washington Time, (“HOMENEWSSECURITYRADIOLOG INE-MAIL ALERTSSUBSCRIBECLASSIFIEDSE-EDITION Rising Red tide: China encircles U.S. by sailing warships in American waters, arming neighbors”, June 7, 2013, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jun/7/china-encircles-us-arming-western-hemisphere-state/?page=all)//sawyer A joint Mexico-China statement said Mexico pledged not to interfere in China’s affairs AND disputed islands that are said to contain large underwater gas and oil reserves.
Chinese influence sparks Taiwan conflict Erikson and Chen, 7 (Daniel, Master’s in Public Policy @ Harvard, Senior Policy Associate @ Inter-American Dialogue, Janice, BA Political Science @ UC Berkeley, student @ Georgetown Law and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, “China, Taiwan, and the Battle for Latin America”, 2007,http://ww.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/Erikson-Chen-120(2).pdf) When longtime Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega triumphed in Nicaragua’s presidential election in November 2006, AND U.S. policy of this intensifying competition in their own backyard.
That causes global nuclear war Glaser, 11 — Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University (Charles, “Will China's Rise Lead to War?: Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011, lexis) ACCOMMODATION ON TAIWAN? THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be AND military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations.
2ac - say yes Group their evidence – they are about rhetoric not action Auken, 13 – political activist Bill Van, "Venezuela’s Maduro reaches out to big business and Washington," WSWS, 6-7-13, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/07/vene-j07.html, accessed 7-19-13, mss After three months in office, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the handpicked successor of AND has been accompanied by a similar approach to both foreign and domestic capital.
Venezuela is key and it causes proliferation Gundogan 12-Mehmet S. Gundogan graduated from the Naval Postgraduate School, (“IRANIAN-VENEZUELAN RELATIONS AND IMPACTS ON THE UNITED STATES”, December 2012, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a574224.pdf) Considering Iran’s questionable nuclear ambitions and its relations with terrorist organizations, Iranian involvement in AND possibility of Iranian asymmetric warfare in the region creates concerns in the north.
This causes Latin America prolif causes global nuclear war Shepard-Durini 9 (Suzana, “The ABCand#39;s of Nuclear Disarmament in Latin America”, 2009, B.A. Political Science and Latin America Studies @ Wellesey College, M.A. Latin America Studies (security) @ Georgetown, Research Associate for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs) There are several resources that indicate that Latin American political scientists were worried about the AND a very hard time surviving if there existed no trust between the nations.
Iranian nukes causes global prolif and nuclear war Kurtz, 6 (Stanley, Ph.D @ Harvard, Senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. “Our Fallout-Shelter Future,” National Review Online, 8/28) Proliferation optimists, on the other hand, see reasons for hope in the record AND it may be very difficult to stop them from escalating into nuclear confrontations.
Prolif is bad – no risk of turns Horowitz, 09 April, Michael, Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons,” journal of conflict resolution, vol 53, no 2
Learning as states gain experience with nuclear weapons is complicated. While to some extent AND war, the balance of power, and the preferences of the adopter.
Trade is the linchpin of Iran’s presence in Latin America – this is used as a base for terrorism Walser 12 – Ph.D in History @ UNC Chapel Hill, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, visiting professor of IR @ U.S Military Academy West Point (Ray, “The Future of Iranand#39;s Influence in Latin America”, inFocus Quarterly, Summer 2012, http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/3233/iran-influence-latin-america) On the geopolitical chessboard,Iran pursues a multiple track policy inthe Western Hemisphere. AND Likewise, Brazil leads the way as an important agricultural exporter to Iran.
Terrorism causes extinction Ayson 10(Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies – Victoria University of Wellington, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects”, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 33(7), July, InformaWorld) A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by AND for the terrorists. This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint. Iran is developing nuclear missile bases in Venezuela —they will launch missiles at the US Levy 11 – Master’s degree in International Relations @ Oxford, A.B. in English and History@ Duke, Soref Research Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (Judith, “A new Missile Crisis? Iran is building a missile base in Venezuela, 5/17/11, http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/israel-online/2011/may/17/new-missile-crisis-iran-base-venezuela/) ISRAEL, May 17, 2011 -—There’s a situation developing south of the U AND range ballistic missiles “with the apparent aimof being ableto deliver nuclear warheads.”
That causes Nuclear war Chossudovsky, 10 — Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Michael, “Towards a World War III Scenario? The Role of Israel in Triggering an Attack on Iran”, 8/13/2010, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.phpcontext=vaandaid=20584) For several years now Iran has been conducting its own war drills and exercises. AND decision by the US and its allies to postpone an attack on Iran.
Now is key – Iran’s network is fragile – increasing trade solves Iranian encroachment Coughlin-Schulte et al 13 -Coughlin-Schulte6/9/13 – Interns @ Burkey Chair in Strategy @ CSIS, *studying IR and Arab studies @ Georgetown (“US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Periphery States”, http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-latin-america-africa-and-periphery-states) Iran has worked to build relationshipswithother politically isolatedgovernmentswith which it has somewhat of an ideological AND to contain and isolate Iran, Tehran’s web is fragile and possibly illusory.
Scenario two is Russia
Russian trade influence in Latin America is growing Nechepurenko 13 – Ivan Nechepurenko is a writer for the MoscowTimes, (“ Russia seeks to Restore Influence in Latin America May 30, 2013, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/article/480827.html) Russia has demonstrated its increasing leverage in Latin America with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meeting AND America, and we will see more Latin American goods in our stores.and#34;
That causes the development of a Venezuela-Russia space program which decimates US tech and space leadership Poblete 8 – JD @ George Mason, Master’s degree in International Affairs/US AND . technologyandknow-howand transfer it toCuba, Venezuela, or even Brazil?
Space leadership is the lynchpin of hegemony Dinerman, 11 (Taylor, Consultant for Department of Defense and Reporter, “How the End of NASA Affects US National Security”, 8/1/11, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2299/nasa-us-national-security) Space exploration is not only critical in refusing to surrender the battlefield of space – AND direction its ability to help keep America secure and prosperous will inevitably diminish.
Hegemony ensures coalition building and deters new threats – the alternative is global war Zhangand Shi, 11 – Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. (America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, 1/22/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/) This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, but it AND forecast in a future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled US primacy.
The plan is key to eliminate Russian influence Blank 9 – Professor of Russian National Security Studies @ Strategic Studies Institute, MA and Ph.D in Russia History @ U Chicago (Stephen, “Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US’s Neighborhood”, April 2009,Russie.Nei.Visions Number 38, PDF) In analyzing the nature ofRussia’s relations with Latin America, a few conclusions can be AND the US should reverse those outcomesand demonstrate what liberal democracy can truly accomplish.
relations Advantage two is relations
The plan solves relations and credibility and that spills over to the entirety of LatinAmerica Griffin 13 – writer for the Harvard Crimson (John, “Engage with Venezuela”, 4/2/13 http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/4/3/Harvard-Venezuela-Chavez-death/#) When Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez died in early February, his country was thrown into AND vinegar—it’s high time we started trying to catch them with honey.
Credibility prevents multiple scenarios for extinction Cohen 3-19 Eliot, Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins, “Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/13 ln In Mr. Obamaand#39;s second term the limits of such withdrawal from conventional military commitments AND what they must and those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons Improved relations with Venezuela spills over– trade is key Tisdall 3/5/13 – writer for the Guardian (Simon, “Death of Hugo Chávez brings chance of fresh start for US and Latin America”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print) Hugo Chávezand#39;s departure furnishes Barack Obama with an opportunity to repair US ties with Venezuela AND US is the worldand#39;s second largest Spanish-speaking country (after Mexico).
Earth Monitoring is faltering – only the plan reinvigorates it – that’s key to solve warming, deforestation, arctic conflict, IndoPak war, and SCS escalation Parthemore et al 11 - Christine Parthemore was a Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), where she directed the Natural Security Program and the Natural Security Blog, Parthemore has a B.A. from The Ohio State University and an M.A. from Georgetown Universityand#39;s Security Studies Program. Her academic backgrounds lie in international political economy, and unconventional threats and nonproliferation.Will Rogers is the Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). At CNAS, Mr. Rogers’ research focus is on science, technology and national security policy. He has authored or co-authored a range of publications on energy, climate change, environmental cooperation in Asia and cybersecurity. Mr. Rogers has a B.A. in Political Science-International Relations from the University of California, San Diego, with an emphasis in U.S. national security and foreign policy. He is currently a graduate student in Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program, (“Blinded: The Decline of U.S. Earth Monitoring Capabilitiesand Its Consequences for National Security”, July 2011. http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS_Blinded_ParthemoreRogers_0.pdf Networks of satellites, ground-based sensors and unmanned aerial vehicles – the assets AND ensure access to informationand services from a more diverse set of systems.”19 Warming causes extinction Brandenburg andPaxson ’99 John (physicist and rocket scientist) and Monica (award-winning author and expert on global warming), Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232 One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human AND Mars—red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving. Amazon destruction ensures extinction Takacs, 96 (David, Professor of Environmental Humanities @ California State University, THE IDEA OF DIVERSITY: PHILOSOPHIES OF PARADISE, 1996, pg. 200-201) So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and of itself, as AND end of the next century - not with a bang but a whimper.
Artic war causes extinction Staples 9 (Steven, President – Rideau Institute, “Steps Toward an Arctic Nuclear Weapon Free Zone,” 8-10, http://www.diis.dk/graphics/Events/2009/Presentation20Staples.pdf) The fact is, the Arctic is becoming anzone of increased military competition. Russian AND , lead to conflict escalating into the threat or use of nuclear weapons.” Indopak war goes Nuclear Bokhari 10(Ashfak, Assistant Editor – Dawn, “Water dispute and war risk”, 1-18, http://archives.dawn.com/archives/24980) In March last year, a group of more than 20 different UN bodies warned AND show upright posture or otherwise prepare for a nuclear war,” he said. South China Sea instability guarantees escalatory warfare Denmark and Kliman 11 (Abraham M., Fellow – Center for a New American Security, and Daniel M., Visiting Fellow – Center for a New American Security, “How to Get Southeast Asia Right,” The Diplomat, http://www.cnas.org/node/5624) And there’s another reason the United States should engage the rising powers in the region AND However, this code of conduct isn’t binding and lacks legal enforcement measures. Relations are critical to effective earth monitoring – this uniquely solves Amazon deforestation and global warming Bander et al. 9 (“Toward the Heavens Latin America’s Emerging Space Progarms”, August 2009, CSIS, *Ashley Bander – M.A. Diplomacy and IR @ Seton Hall University, B.A. Political Science and IR @ Virginia Tech *G. Ryan Faith – B.Sc in Engineering Mechanics @ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, adjunct fellow and former program manager for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, *Vincent Sabathier – senior fellow and director for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, taught space transportation systems @ University Paul Sabatier, *JohanaMendelson Forman – senior associate @ CSIS, Ph.D in Latin American history @ Washington University, Master’s Degree in IR @ Columbia, http://csis.org/files/publication/090730_Mendelson_TowardHeavens_Web.pdf) In this context, the United States is losing anopportunityto exercise its smart powerby not AND region’s massive rain forests through earth observation and other technologies that support these goals.
The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Venezuela on non-oil free trade.
solvency Contention 3 is solvency No disads – trade with Venezuela is inevitable due to oil Lilley 13- Sandra Lilley graduated from Brown University with a PhD, 03/06/13, “Friend or Foe? Venezuela – US relations up in the air” http://nbclatino.com/2013/03/06/friend-or-foe-venezuela-us-relations-up-in-the-air/ “What has been interesting is that … ,” she adds.
Plan solves relations and boosts the Venezuelan economy Whittington 13 – Mark Whittington is a writer for USA TODAY, (“Death of Chavez Provides Opportunities for Venezuela, U.S.”, March 6, 2013, http://voices.yahoo.com/death-hugo-chavez-provides-opportunities-venezuela-12044527.html?cat=9) Encouraging Venezuela toward friendly relations should become a prime priority of American foreign policy. AND that would helpVenezuelaand#39;s poor in a far more sustainable manner than government handouts. Venezuela says yes Free trade is key Oand#39;Neil 13 –Shannon O’Neil - Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies “Guest Post: Maduro’s Limited Foreign Policy Agenda”, August 2013, Foreign Affairs http://blogs.cfr.org/oneil/2013/08/20/guest-post-maduros-limited-foreign-policy-agenda/ In recent years, Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro has played a leading role in crafting AND may not be in the style that Chávez or Maduro would have wished.
Venezuela is pragmatic Lees, 13 -- corporate attorney in Washington, DC Kevin, and#34;It’s Diosdado Cabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it,and#34; Suffragio, 6-4-13, suffragio.org/2013/06/04/its-diosdado-cabellos-world-the-rest-of-venezuela-is-just-living-in-it/, accessed 7-27-13, mss It’sDiosdadoCabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it Venezuela, just AND ensure his continued role in diverting sufficient gains to himself and his supporters?
Propaganda Lemaster 9- LIEUTENANT COLONEL DENNIS P. LEMASTER United States Army, (“US AND .Engagement bridges the differences of the two nationsand ultimately strengthens the Western Hemisphere
Maduro’s Popularity Valencia 13– AUGUST 10, 2013, Robert Valencia is a New York-based political analyst and is a contributing writer for Global Voices Online, (“Nicolas Maduros First 100 Days, http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/08/10/nicolC3A1s-maduroE28099s-first-100-days) After Venezuela’s mid-April presidential elections, a halo of uncertainty hovers around Nicolás AND leave a positive legacy, he may have to face his own demons.
9/28/13
Niles - Round 1 - 1AC
Tournament: Niles | Round: 1 | Opponent: UC Lab ZK | Judge: Carly Watson Advantage one is Trade
Venezuela will say yes - reasserting US influence is key Sabatini 11 – Ph.D. in Government @ University of Virginia, adjunct professor at the School of International and Public Affairs @ Columbia University (Christopher, “U.S.-South America Relations: Rising Rivalry, Prickly Partnership”, World Politics Review, 10/11/11 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10300/u-s-south-america-relations-rising-rivalry-prickly-partnership) Two serve as a convenient foil for governments that want to raise a sticky issue but would prefer not to take the lead.
Scenario one is Iran
Trade is the linchpin of Iranian relations and influence in Latin America—this ensures a base for launching attacks Walser 12 – Ph.D in History @ UNC Chapel Hill, Senior Policy Analyst at the Heritage Foundation, visiting professor of IR @ U.S Military Academy West Point (Ray, “The Future of Iran's Influence in Latin America”, inFocus Quarterly, Summer 2012, http://www.jewishpolicycenter.org/3233/iran-influence-latin-america) On the geopolitical to Iran.
Iran is developing nuclear missile bases in Venezuela —they will launch missiles at the US Levy 11 – Master’s degree in International Relations @ Oxford, A.B. in English and History@ Duke, Soref Research Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (Judith, “A new Missile Crisis? Iran is building a missile base in Venezuela, 5/17/11, http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/israel-online/2011/may/17/new-missile-crisis-iran-base-venezuela/) ISRAEL, May 17 nuclear warheads.”
Nuclear war and extinction Chossudovsky, 10 — Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (Michael, “Towards a World War III Scenario? The Role of Israel in Triggering an Attack on Iran”, 8/13/2010, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.phpcontext=vaandaid=20584) For several lliance realizes that the enemy has significant capabilities to respond and retaliate. This factor in itself has been crucial over the last five years in the decision by the US and its allies to postpone an attack on Iran.
Iran-Venezuela relations ensure Venezuelan and Iranian nuclearization Noriega, 10 (Roger, “Chávez's Secret Nuclear Program”, former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States from 2001 to 2003 and U.S. assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere from 2003 to 2005. He is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute) http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/05/chavez_s_secret_nuclear_program?page=0,0 VenezuelanPresident from sources within the Venezuelan government, reveals that an "Atomic Energy Committee" has been managing the nuclear program since 2007.
This causes Latin America prolif causes global nuclear war Shepard-Durini 9 (Suzana, “The ABC's of Nuclear Disarmament in Latin America”, 2009, B.A. Political Science and Latin America Studies @ Wellesey College, M.A. Latin America Studies (security) @ Georgetown, Research Associate for the Council on Hemispheric Affairs) There are een the nations.
Iranian nukes causes global prolif and nuclear war Kurtz, 6 (Stanley, Ph.D @ Harvard, Senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. “Our Fallout-Shelter Future,” National Review Online, 8/28) Proliferation optimists, confrontations.
Prolif is bad – no risk of turns Horowitz, 09 April, Michael, Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons,” journal of conflict resolution, vol 53, no 2
Learning as states, the balance of power, and the preferences of the adopter.
Now is key – Iran’s network is fragile – increasing trade solves Iranian encroachment Fite et al 13 -Coughlin-Schulte6/9/13 – Interns @ Burkey Chair in Strategy @ CSIS, *studying IR and Arab studies @ Georgetown (“US and Iranian Strategic Competition: Latin America, Africa, and the Periphery States”, http://csis.org/publication/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition-latin-america-africa-and-periphery-states) Iran has --possibly illusory.
Scenario two is Russia
Russian trade influence in Latin America is growing Nechepurenko 13 – Ivan Nechepurenko is a writer for the MoscowTimes, (“ Russia seeks to Restore Influence in Latin America May 30, 2013, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/article/480827.html) Russia has demonstrated its and we will see more Latin American goods in our stores."
That causes the development of a Venezuela-Russia space program Poblete 8 – JD @ George Mason, Master’s degree in International Affairs/US Foreign Policy @ Georgetown, Bachelor’s in Political Science @ Florida International University, lawyer specializing in trade compliance, U.S. export control laws and regulations for military and dual-use items, economic sanctions and free trade agreements (Jason, “Proposed Russian-Cuba-Venezuela Space Cooperation Raises Many Questions”, September 22, 2008, http://jasonpoblete.com/2008/09/22/proposed-russian-cuba-venezuela-space-cooperation-raises-many-questions/) The Russiansappear to beenjoying lately publicly challenging the United -Venezuela-Russia outer space program.
Two internal links to tech leadership First is protection of US tech Poblete 8 – JD @ George Mason, Master’s degree in International Affairs/US Foreign Policy @ Georgetown, Bachelor’s in Political Science @ Florida International University, lawyer specializing in trade compliance, U.S. export control laws and regulations for military and dual-use items, economic sanctions and free trade agreements (Jason, “Proposed Russian-Cuba-Venezuela Space Cooperation Raises Many Questions”, September 22, 2008, http://jasonpoblete.com/2008/09/22/proposed-russian-cuba-venezuela-space-cooperation-raises-many-questions/) The proposed and other countries? We cannot.
Second is US space operations Poblete 8 – JD @ George Mason, Master’s degree in International Affairs/US Foreign Policy @ Georgetown, Bachelor’s in Political Science @ Florida International University, lawyer specializing in trade compliance, U.S. export control laws and regulations for military and dual-use items, economic sanctions and free trade agreements (Jason, “Proposed Russian-Cuba-Venezuela Space Cooperation Raises Many Questions”, September 22, 2008,http://jasonpoblete.com/2008/09/22/proposed-russian-cuba-venezuela-space-cooperation-raises-many-questions/) There is no easy rogram.
Space leadership is the lynchpin of hegemony Dinerman, 11 (Taylor, Consultant for Department of Defense and Reporter, “How the End of NASA Affects US National Security”, 8/1/11, http://www.hudson-ny.org/2299/nasa-us-national-security) Space exploration bly diminish.
Hegemony ensures coalition building and deters new threats – the alternative is global war Zhangand Shi, 11 – Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. (America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, 1/22/2011, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/) This does not US primacy.
Independently – the prevention of Russian expansion in Latin America is key to avoid conflict Walle 12 – Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Walter, “Russia Turns to the South for Military and Economic Alliances,” Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 5/8/12, http://www.coha.org/russia-turns-to-the-south-for-military-and-economic-alliances/)//Bwang Quite clearly, of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Venezuela27 and Nicaragua28 were alone among Latin American countries in recognizing the independence of the new republics.
Extinction Bostrom 2 Nick, PhD, Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, March 2002, http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html A much ted. Unfortunately, we shall see that nuclear Armageddon and comet or asteroid strikes are mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the 21st century.
And is the plan is key to eliminate Russian influence Blank 9 – Professor of Russian National Security Studies @ Strategic Studies Institute, MA and Ph.D in Russia History @ U Chicago (Stephen, “Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US’s Neighborhood”, April 2009,Russie.Nei.Visions Number 38, PDF) In analyzing monstrate what liberal democracy can truly accomplish.
Advantage two is relations
Maduro will say yes to trade and it boosts relations O’Neil 13 --- Senior Fellow of Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (Shannon, “Viewpoint: New era for US-Venezuela relations?”, March 6, BBC News, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21680885) But in the longer icable bilateral relationship.
Now is key – improved relations with Venezuela spills over to other Latin American countries – trade is especially important Tisdall 3/5/13 – writer for the Guardian (Simon, “Death of Hugo Chávez brings chance of fresh start for US and Latin America”, The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/hugo-chavez-dead-us-latin-america/print) Hugo Chávez's departure furnishes--. Latinos now comprise 15 of the US population; the US is the world's second largest Spanish-speaking country (after Mexico).
Relations are critical to effective earth monitoring – this solves Amazon deforestation and global warming Bander et al. 9 (“Toward the Heavens Latin America’s Emerging Space Progarms”, August 2009, CSIS, *Ashley Bander – M.A. Diplomacy and IR @ Seton Hall University, B.A. Political Science and IR @ Virginia Tech *G. Ryan Faith – B.Sc in Engineering Mechanics @ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, adjunct fellow and former program manager for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, *Vincent Sabathier – senior fellow and director for Space Initiatives @ CSIS, taught space transportation systems @ University Paul Sabatier, *Johana Mendelson Forman – senior associate @ CSIS, Ph.D in Latin American history @ Washington University, Master’s Degree in IR @ Columbia, http://csis.org/files/publication/090730_Mendelson_TowardHeavens_Web.pdf) In this context, --and other technologies that support these goals.
Extinction Brandenburg and Paxson ’99 John (physicist and rocket scientist) and Monica (award-winning author and expert on global warming), Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232 One can imagine a scenario for global catastrophe that runs similarly. If the human race adopted a mentality like the crew aboard the ship Californian-as some urge, saying that both ozone hole and global warming will disappear if statistics are properly examined, and we need do nothing about either-the following scenario could occur. The world goes on its merry way and fossil fuels continue to power it. Rather than making painful or politically difficult choices, such as investing ill fusion research or enacting a rigorous plan of conserving, the industrial world chooses to muddle through the temperature climb. Let's imagine that America and Europe are too worried about economic dislocation to change course-- microbes surviving. Global warming is human induced – monitoring is key to mitigation NRC 7’- (2007, “Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond”, https://download.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11820) It is now well understood -- the capacity to quantify the present-day regional carbon sources and sinks does not exist.
Amazon destruction ensures extinction Takacs, 96 (David, Professor of Environmental Humanities @ California State University, THE IDEA OF DIVERSITY: PHILOSOPHIES OF PARADISE, 1996, pg. 200-201) So biodiversity keeps the world running - not with a bang but a whimper.
Plan prevents multiple scenarios for extinction Cohen 3-19 Eliot, Director of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins, “Eliot Cohen: American Withdrawal and Global Disorder” The Wall Street Journal, 3/19/13 ln In Mr. Obama's second term the - those with an option hurry up and get nuclear weapons The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Venezuela on non-oil free trade.
Venezuela says yes Maduro’s Popularity Valencia 13– AUGUST 10, 2013, Robert Valencia is a New York-based political analyst and is a contributing writer for Global Voices Online, (“Nicolas Maduros First 100 Days, http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/08/10/nicolC3A1s-maduroE28099s-first-100-days) After Venezuela’s mid-April) to the moderate ones to the most radical. If Maduro wants to consolidate his political future and leave a positive legacy, he may have to face his own demons. Venezuela is pragmatic Lees, 13 -- corporate attorney in Washington, DC Kevin, "It’s Diosdado Cabello’s world, the rest of Venezuela is just living in it," Suffragio, 6-4-13, suffragio.org/2013/06/04/its-diosdado-cabellos-world-the-rest-of-venezuela-is-just-living-in-it/, accessed 7-27-13, mss It’s Diosdado. Even if Cabello could push Maduro out of office tomorrow, why would he want to take ownership of Venezuela in its immediate state anyway if he can control enough behind the scenes to ensure his continued role in diverting sufficient gains to himself and his supporters?
Propaganda Lemaster 9- LIEUTENANT COLONEL DENNIS P. LEMASTER United States Army, (“US POLICY OPTIONS MITIGATINGVENEZUELAN SPONSORED SECURITY CHALLENGES”, 2009,http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA497699) The policy of increased engagement best serves the interests ofthe US, the region, andthe world. Engagementfullymeetsthe criteria offeasibility, and ultimately strengthens the Western Hemisphere
Maduro is Weak Halabi, 5/3 (Sammy, co-founder of Global Risk Insights and postgraduate student at the London School of Economics, May 3, 2013, “Reasons for Optimism in Venezuela”, http://globalriskinsights.com/2013/05/03/spring-is-coming-we-should-be-optimistic-about-venezuela/)ZB But Maduro is not Chavez.==. Maduro is not the reincarnation of Chavez and attempts to analyze Venezuela’s future on its Chavismo past are superficial at best. In short, spring is coming.