Tournament: Heritage hall | Round: 1 | Opponent: xx | Judge: xx
1AC
Advantage
Recent changes in monetary policy are causing massive sell-offs in emerging markets—Mexico is uniquely vulnerable
Prothero 6/28, Neil Prothero, Economist Intelligence Unit's lead analyst on the UK, regular contributor to the independent economic forecasts produced by the UK Treasury and the Bank of England “The end isn’t nigh¶ Central bank challenges as the era of cheap money enters a new phase”, Economics Intelligence Unit, http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The20end20isn't20nigh20-20July202013.pdf, June 28th 2013)
Investors have reacted ... have risen sharply.
Peso crisis inevitable in the status quo—Fed communication failures with the market locks in risk of economic contagion
-AT Monetary CP, fed can’t communicate effectively with domestic markets
Summers 7/3, Nick Summers, covers Wall Street and finance for Bloomberg Businessweek, “Fed Spreads Confusion With Efforts to 'Clarify' Bernanke's Remarks”, Bloomberg, July 03, 2013, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-03/fed-spreads-confusion-with-efforts-to-clarify-bernankes-remarks)
Greenspan’s successor, Ben Bernanke, ... will be of its own making.”
Mexican exchange crisis would cause economic collapse
(Mishkin 99, Frederic S. Mishkin, American economist and professor at the Columbia Business School. He was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Lessons from the Tequila Crisis”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 1999)
The first implication ... currency denominated loans.
Higher interest rates disrupt the bond market—Mexican intervention backfires and crushes Latin American liquidity
-US interest rates rising
-Triggers Mexican peso devaluation, triggers capital controls (internal link)
LF 7/2/13—staff writer citing multiple emerging market economists, “Prep for Extended Volatility, warn experts”, Latin Finance, 7/2/13, http://www.latinfinance.com/Article/3226264/Prep-for-extended-volatility-warn-experts.html?ArticleId=3226264)
Latin ?nancial markets ... dollar on Tuesday.
Systemically important global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and accesses an internal link to the global economy
Griffin 6/11, Donald Griffin, reporter for Bloomberg News , “Citigroup Facing $7 Billion Hit on Dollar Gain, Peabody Says”, Bloomberg, 6/11/13, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-11/citigroup-facing-7-billion-currency-hit-on-dollar-peabody-says#p3)
Last June, Peabody ... than currently anticipated.”
The banking sector is also key to the economy
Armenta 07, Manuela W. Armenta , “The Financial Sector and economic development: Banking on The role of human capital”, http://www.princeton.edu/jpia/past-issues-1/2007/9.pdf)
To understand why ... and sustainable growth.
Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation—escalates
Harris and Burrows, ‘09 Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis” http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf
Increased Potential for ... dog-eat-dog world.
Broad studies prove our argument
Royal, ‘10 2010, Jedediah Royal is the Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, “Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives”, ed. By Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is ... to those views.
The banking sector is key to solve warming—emissions policies
Cogan 08, Douglas G. Cogan, Deputy Director of the Social Issues Service, a division of Institutional Shareholder Services. In addition to analyzing shareholder proxy issues, Doug is involved in corporate research for ISS’s Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Analytics Service, “Corporate Governance and Climate Change:
The Banking Sector”, January 2008, http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/corporate-governance-banking-sector)
Climate change is ... climate- related damage.
Warming causes extinction of every species
Cahill ’12 10/17/12,Abigail E. Cahill, Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, M. Caitlin Fisher-Reid, Xia Hua, Caitlin J. Karanewsky, Hae Yeong Ryu, Gena C. Sbeglia, Fabrizio Spagnolo, John B. Waldron, Omar Warsi and John J. Wiens. “How does climate change cause extinction,” http://life.bio.sunysb.edu/ee/wienslab/wienspdfs/2012/Cahill_et_al_2012_PRSL.pdf
PROXIMATE FACTORS CAUSING ...the focal species.
Global warming is real, caused by human CO2 emissions, and will cause flooding and feedback loops that causes population migrations fueling political instability, economic collapse, and failed states, escalating to nuclear war in a vicious cycle to extinction
Kaku 11 – Michio Kaku, co-creator of string field theory, a branch of string theory. He received a B.S. (summa cum laude) from Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. He went on to the Berkeley Radiation Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley and received a Ph.D. in 1972. In 1973, he held a lectureship at Princeton University. Michio continues Einstein’s search for a “Theory of Everything,” seeking to unify the four fundamental forces of the universe—the strong force, the weak force, gravity and electromagnetism. He is the author of several scholarly, Ph.D. level textbooks and has had more than 70 articles published in physics journals, covering topics such as superstring theory, supergravity, supersymmetry, and hadronic physics. Professor of Physics — He holds the Henry Semat Chair and Professorship in theoretical physics at the City College of New York, where he has taught for over 25 years. He has also been a visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, as well as New York University (NYU). “Physics of the Future” http://213.55.83.52/ebooks/physics/Physics20of20the20Future.pdf Accessed 6/26/12 BJM
By midcentury, the full ... of global warming.
Plan
The United States federal government should expand and make semi-permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de México.
Solvency
Empirical Solvency Card—confidence, crisis management
Olson et al 09
(Eric, senior advisor to the Security Initiative of the Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute and has held senior positions at the Organization of American States, Amnesty International, and the Washington Office on Latin America, "The United States And Mexico: Towards a Strategic Partnership" A report of four working groups on U.S.-Mexico Relations, January 2009, www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The20U.S.20and20Mexico.20Towards20a20Strategic20Partnership.pdf NP)
The interdependence of ... in crisis management
US action is key—solvency advocate
Starr 09
(Pamela K., associate professor of international relations at USC and a former professor of Latin American political economy at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, published in the Pacific Council, Non-partisan and not-profit organization in Los Angeles with the goal of giving a more effective voice to West Coast perspectives on critical global policy issues, "Mexico and the United States: A Window Of Opportunity?", April 2009, www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=35 NP)
Implications for U.S.-Mexico ... beyond the border.
Solvency Card
-derivatives increase the risk of currency collapse
-swap lines solve mexico, empirics
-alternative is capital controls
Mehrotra et al 12
(Aaron, Economist in the monetary department of International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, "BIS Papers No 67 Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies" Monetary and Economic Department, October 2012, www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap67.pdf NP)
Recent episodes of ...specific reserve requirements).