Tournament: Concordia | Round: 1 | Opponent: | Judge:
Contention One: China
Plan: The United States federal government should normalize its economic relations with the Republic of Cuba
First, ending the embargo is the only way to solve U.S. Latin American relations
White 2013
Robert White, Senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, 3/7/13
(After Chávez, a Chance to Rethink Relations With Cuba, www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/opinion/after-chavez-hope-for-good-neighbors-in-latin-america.html?pagewanted=alland_r=1and)
An end to the Cuba embargo would send a powerful signal to all of Latin America that the United States wants a new, warmer relationship with democratic forces seeking social change throughout the Americas
And
, the vision of Roosevelt and Kennedy of a hemisphere of partners cooperating in matters of common concern would be reduced to a historical footnote.
?
And, US influence in the region key to crowd out China
Dowd 2012
Alan Dowd (Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation) 2012 “Crisis in the America's,” http://www.ascfusa.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas)
Focused on military operations in the Middle East, nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea, and the global threat of terrorism, U.S. policymakers have neglected a growing challenge right here in the Western Hemisphere: the expanding influence and reach of China.¶ Eyeing energy resources to keep its economy humming
And
Focusing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas, this “Monroe Doctrine 2.0” would make it clear to Beijing that the United States welcomes China’s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas but discourages any claims of control—implied or explicit—by China over territories, properties or facilities in the Americas. In addition, Washington should make it clear to Beijing that the American people would look unfavorably upon the sale of Chinese arms or the basing of Chinese advisors or military assets in the Western Hemisphere.¶ In short, what it was true in the 19th and 20th centuries must remain true in the 21st: There is room for only one great power in the Western Hemisphere.
And, Cuba is a keystone nation for hemispheric influence
Perez, 2010 (David, Yale Law School, working with Koh former Dean of Yale Law and Legal Advisor to the State Department , “America's Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department”, Spring, 2010, Harvard Latino Law Review, 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187)
*191 Traditionally the U.S. has projected its influence by using varying combinations of hard and soft power. It has been a long time since the United States last sponsored or supported military action in Latin America
And
warming relations with Cuba would have a reverberating effect throughout Latin America, and would go a long way toward creating goodwill.
And, US-Latin America relations stop Chinese expansion in the region
Lovelace 2007
Ph.D., Director of the Strategic Studies Institute Douglas, FOREWORD: CHINA’S EXPANSION INTO AND U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM ARGENTINA’S TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND SPACE INDUSTRIES AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY,” Strategic Studies Institute, September, http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=806
The U.S. Government is waking up to China's growing presence in Latin America.
And
calls for the U.S. government to react to this current trend by increasing its engagement in regional strategic industries and bettering relations with its southern neighbors.
And, Chinese influence allows for US vulnerabilities
Hulse 2007
(Janie Hulse, Master’s degree in Politics of Development of Latin America from the London School of Economics, is an independent contractor based in Buenos Aires, Argentina, who provides communica-tions and research services to private and public sector organizations “CHINA’S EXPANSION INTO AND U.S. WITHDRAWAL FROM ARGENTINA’S TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND SPACE INDUSTRIES AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY,” Strategic Studies Institute, September, http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/download.cfm?q=806 )
Chinese presence in Western Hemisphere space creates particular vulnerabilities for the United States
And
To do so requires improving U.S. relations with Latin American countries and making U.S. companies more competitive in the region?
And, The impact is nuclear war
Forden 2008
PhD and Research Associate @ MIT (Geoffrey, PhD and Research Associate at MIT, “How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 2),” 1/10, http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2008/01/inside-the-ch-1/, EMM)
The United States has five satellites in geostationary orbit that detect missile launches
And
Any Chinese attacks on US early warning satellites would risk both intentional and mistaken escalation of the conflict into a nuclear war without a clear military goal.
?
And, Chinese influence causes Taiwan isolation and U.S. China war
Fergusson 2012 (Robbie, Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Featured Contributor at International Business Times, Former Conference and Research Assistant at Security Watch, Former Researcher at University College London, Master of Science, China in the International Arena, The University of Glasgow, “The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine,” http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/
Taiwan – domestic, or foreign policy?¶ China’s goals in the region amount to more than the capture of natural resources
And
The U.S.A might find itself in a position where it could no longer withstand the diplomatic pressure to allow the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force.
And, Taiwan war escalates to US-China nuclear conflict
Taipei Times 2013
(3/16/13, Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report, www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211)
Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China and the US, a new academic report concludes.
And
With both sides possessing and looking set to retain formidable nuclear weapons arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating.”
And, Taiwan isolation causes a legitimacy crisis
Brookes 2005
Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director of the Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation (Peter, “China's Influence in the Western Hemisphere,” April 19, Heritage Lecture #873, http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/hl873.cfm)
One of China's tactics is an effort to politically isolate Taiwan
And
Taiwan pays dearly to retain this diplomatic recognition, and if these states were to switch recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the damage to Taiwan's political confidence and its claims of legitimacy as a state would be seriously undermined in Taipei's estimation.
And, this causes Taiwan proliferation
Galante and Chen 2006
James and Shieuan-Ju Center for Advanced Defense Studies (“Bubble Tea Diplomacy: The Nuclear Solution to Taiwan's International Recognition," Defense Concepts Serious August 2006http:www.c4ads.org/files/cads_report_bteadiplo_aug06.pdf)
Taiwan’s unique status, denied the status of nation-state by the international community and claimed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), creates a loophole that can lead to problematic consequences.
And
For Taiwan to regain international attention, and in turn political recognition, one may argue that the island nation might engage in this new form of brinksmanship.
And, This causes a nuclear war and Asian proliferation
Sokolski 2009
Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
(Henry, “Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd”, Policy Review, June/July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)
Finally, several new nuclear weapons contenders are also likely to emerge in the next two to three decades
And
Chinese weapons developments or moves regarding Taiwan; state-sponsored assassination attempts of key figures in the Middle East or South West Asia, etc. — could easily prompt nuclear weapons deployments with “strategic” consequences (arms races, strategic miscues, and even nuclear war).
And, Prolif causes hair trigger responses and accidental nuclear war
ICNND 2009
International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament
Gareth Evans and Yoriko Kawaguchi, Co-Chairs of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament; “Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers;” published 2009; http://www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/pdf/ICNND_Report-EliminatingNuclearThreats.pdf Jay
3.1 Ensuring that no new states join the ranks of those already nucleararmed must continue to be one of the world’s top international security priorities
And
The dangers are compounded if the new and aspiring nuclear weapons states have, as is likely to be the case, ongoing inter-state disputes with ideological, territorial, historical – and for all those reasons, strongly emotive – dimensions. 3.3
And, Chinese Influence in Latin America causes U.S. China war
Menendez ‘13
Fernando is an economist and principal of Cordoba Group International LLC, a strategic consulting firm providing economic and political analysis to clients, “The Counterbalance in America’s Backyard,” http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-counterbalance-in-americas-backyard-2/ kk
From the perspective of Latin America’s foreign policy makers, China is undeniably a welcome economic, and potentially political, counterbalance to the U.S
And,
It must have seemed that way to those who first saw Admiral Zheng’s fleet off the coastline.
And, reengaging with Cuba is key to checking Chinese influence
Luko 2011
James served in Washington DC with the National Council For Soviet East European Research, the Smithsonian Institute and two years as an analyst with the Canadian Department of National Defence and has been doing Consulting Work in China for the last 2 years, “China’s Moves on Cuba Need to be Stopped,” http://www.nolanchart.com/article8774-chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.html
The Red Dragon takes another wide step of not only flexing its muscles in Asia, but now wishes to supplant Russias and (former USSRs) forward base presence 90 miles from the United States- CUBA
And
Checking the Chinese move in Cuba early on is vital to preventing a strategic Chinese foothold 90 miles from Florida. Allowing China to replace Russia in Cuba would be a strategic disaster.
Contention Two: Heg
First, Increasing engagement with Latin America is key to sustaining hegemony
Ben-Ami 2013
Ben-Ami 6-18-13. Shlomo Ben-Ami, Times of Oman. “Is US losing Latin America?” http://www.timesofoman.com/Columns/Article-1173.aspxMG
It is a mantra increasingly heard around the world: US power is in decline
And
The US is better positioned than any other power in this respect, particularly when it comes to applying these advantages in its immediate vicinity.
?
And, now is the key time to reengage with Latin America- if we wait it’ll be too late
Shifter ‘12
(Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council's journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. “Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,” April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)
If the United States and Latin America do not make the effort now, the chance may slip away.
And
there is a chance that tensions between the United States and Latin America could become much worse, adversely affecting everyone’s interests and wellbeing.
And, Chinese ASAT attacks collapse hegemony
Pfaltzgraff 2009
(Robert Pfaltzgraff, International Security Studies Professor at Tufts, PhD in Political Science and an MBA from Wharton, “Space and Security a Net Assessment” January 2009, Institute for foreign policy analysis (IFPA)
Among the areas of U.S. space vulnerability is electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack.
and
The destruction or disabling of such satellites would have possibly catastrophic implications for homeland security and for the U.S. military as well as the overall economy and society.
?
And, Perception of Declining U.S. influence triggers Brazilian Prolif
Stalcup 2012
Travis C. Stalcup, Fellow @ Texas AandM, 10-10-2012, "What is Brazil Up to with Its Nuclear Policy?" Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, http:// journal.georgetown.edu/2012/10/10/what-is-brazil-up-to-with-its-nuclear-policy-by-travis-stalcup/
What is Brazil up to? That is the question national security planners should be asking
and
A nuclear weapon would not only deter rogue neighbors but solidify Brazil’s regional dominance and prove that it possesses the military capability to contribute to international security.¶
And, Brazilian Prolif causes a regional arms race and nuclear war
Ghoshal 2013
Debalina Ghoshal 8/20/13 Ghoshai is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, India. “South America Goes Nuclear: Now Brazil” –the Gatestone Institute for international politics. http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3941/nuclear-brazil
By stating that submarines would be used for defensive roles only, Brazil apparently tries to make clear, as the analyst William Goncalvez stated, that it has "strategic needs," but no desire to fuel an "arms race….nor does it want to be a military power."
And
These nuclear developments in Brazil are worth watching closely: the precariousness of deterrence, or of collapsed or ineffective deterrence, easily leads to all-out war.
And, Latin American Prolif draws in great powers causing nuclear war
MIT, 2009, citing Licio da Silva, Astrophysicist at the Observatorio Nacional de Río de Janeiro- Brasil, “The ABC's of Nuclear Disarmament in Latin America,” http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/political-science/17-951-nuclear-weapons-in-international-politics-past-present-and-future-spring-2009/projects/MIT17_951S09_abcs.pdf
There are several resources that indicate that Latin American political scientists were worried about the effect nuclear weapons would have on the region
And
Regions that are economically dependent on each other, such as South America, would have a very hard time surviving if there existed no trust
And, repealing the embargo solves U.S. soft power
Lieutenant Colonel Sergio M. Dickerson 2010 "United States Security Strategy Towards Cuba," Strategy Research Project, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2anddoc=GetTRDoc.pdfandAD=ADA518053
Conclusion¶ Today, 20 years have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall – it’s time to chip away at the diplomatic wall that still remains between U.S. and Cuba.
And
The U.S. could begin to lead again and reverse its perceived decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.
?
And, Soft power is key to Heg
Francis Fukuyama, 2006 Professor International Studies Johns Hopkins, America at the Crossroads, p. 190-1
The most important way that American power can be exercised at this juncture is not through the exercise of military power but through the ability of the United States to shape international institutions.
And
International institutions exist in part to reduce the transaction costs of achieving consent, but under the best of circumstances they necessarily move less quickly than security requires.
And, Heg collapse causes wild-fire arms races
Rosen 2003
Stephen Peter Rosen (PhD from Harvard University in 1979 and is currently the Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs in the Department of Government, Harvard University) Spring 2003 “An Empire, If you Can Keep It,” The National Interest, , LN Academic, UK: Fisher
Rather than wrestle with such difficult and unpleasant problems, the United States could give up the imperial mission, or pretensions to it, now.
And
If the logic of American empire is unappealing, it is not at all clear that the alternatives are that much more attractive.
?
And, Heg collapse causes global nuclear conflict – ensures the US is drawn back in
Lieber 2005 – PhD from Harvard, Professor of Government and International Affairs at Georgetown, former consultant to the State Department and for National Intelligence Estimates (Robert, “The American Era”, pages 53-54, WEA)
Withdrawal from foreign commitments might seem to be a means of evading hostility toward the United States, but the consequences would almost certainly be harmful both to regional stability and to U.S. national interests.
And
Ferguson’s warning may be hyperbolic, but it hints at the perils that the absence of a dominant power, “apolarity,” could bring “an anarchic new Dark Age of waning empires and religious fanaticism; of endemic plunder and pillage in the world’s forgotten regions; of economic stagnation and civilization’s retreat into a few fortified enclaves.”23
No offense- pursuit of hegemony is inevitable
Mearsheimer 11 John J. Mearsheimer, the “R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago” Jan/Feb 2011 “Imperial By Design” http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0059.pdf
The downward spiral the United States has taken was anything but inevitable.
And
One would think that such arrogance might alienate other states, but most American policy makers of the early nineties and beyond were confident that would not happen, instead believing that other countries—save for so-called rogue states like Iran and North Korea—would see the United States as a benign hegemon serving their own interests.
Retrenchment and multilateralism leads to great power war and crisis instability- hegemony is key to deescalate conflicts
Brooks, Ikenberry, and Wohlforth ’13 (Stephen, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry is the Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University in the Department of Politics and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, William C. Wohlforth is the Daniel Webster Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College “Don’t Come Home America: The Case Against Retrenchment,” International Security, Vol. 37, No. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51)
A core premise of deep engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far more dangerous global security environment
And
All of the world’s most modern militaries are U.S. allies (America’s alliance system of more than sixty countries now accounts for some 80 percent of global military spending), and the gap between the U.S. military capability and that of potential rivals is by many measures growing rather than shrinking. 85
Nuclear war causes human extinction
PHILLIPS 2000 (Dr. Allen, Peace Activist, Nuclear Winter Revisited, October, http://www.peace.ca/nuclearwinterrevisited.htm)
Those of us who were involved in peace activities in the 80's probably remember a good deal about nuclear winter. Those who have become involved later may have heard little about it.
And
Deaths from world-wide starvation after the war would be several times the number from direct effects of the bombs, and the surviving fraction of the human race might then diminish and vanish after a few generations of hunger and disease, in a radioactive environment.
Nuclear war destroys the environment and causes human extinction
PHILLIPS 2000 (Dr. Allen, Peace Activist, Nuclear Winter Revisited, October, http://www.peace.ca/nuclearwinterrevisited.htm)
The 1980's research showed that the dust and the smoke would block out a large fraction of the sunlight and the sun's heat from the earth's surface, so it would be dark and cold like an arctic winter.
And
There will be plenty of evolution after a war, but it may not include us.)