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Alta | 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - 2NRs |
Fullerton | 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - 2NRs |
Glenbrooks | 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - 2NRs |
Jack Howe Invitational - CSU Long Beach | 1 | Opponent: Loyola MN | Judge: 1AC - Cuban embargo aff w Protectionism China War and bioterror |
Meadows | 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - 2NRs |
Notre Dame | 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - 2NRs |
TOC | 1 | Opponent: ACORN AJ | Judge: Scott Brown 1NC 2NC1NR 2NR |
ToC | 3 | Opponent: Cedar Ridge PR | Judge: Evan Mccarthy 1NC 2NC1NR 2NR |
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1NCTournament: Jack Howe Invitational - CSU Long Beach | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola MN | Judge: 1A clean debt ceiling bill will pass in both chambers of congress, despite the conservative effort to court disaster.The Business Insider September 25, 2013 Drains capital – Backlash and hostage taking on unrelated priority legislation is empirically proven, likely in future and specifically true for RubioLeoGrande, 12 The Second Obama Administration Where in the executive branch will control over Cuba policy lie Political capital is necessary – the budget is the litmus test for ObamaWolf 9/12/13 (Z. Byron, "Analysis: Is Obama A Winner or Loser on Syria" http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/11/politics/obama-winner-loser-syria/index.html) Failure to raise the debt ceiling has economic ripple effects – investor uncertaintyMasters 13 (Jonathan, Deputy Editor at the Council on Foreign Relations, Backgrounder, jan 2 2013"US Debt Ceiling. Costs and Consequences") Impact is global nuclear warHarris and Burrows 9 Mathew, PhD European History @ Cambridge, counselor of the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf-http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and indeed believes the future is 2Interpretation – Removing sanctions is a form of appeasementStern 6 (Martin, University of Maryland Graduate, Debunking detente, 11/27/06, http://www.diamondbackonline.com/article_56223e79-7009-56a3-8afe-5d08bfff6e08.html) Appeasement is defined as "granting concessions to potential enemies to maintain peace." Giving Iran international legitimacy and removing sanctions would have maintained peace with a potential enemy without changing the undemocratic practices of the enemy. If this isn’t appeasement, I don’t know how better to define the word. Engagement and appeasement are distinctResnick 1 (Evan, Assistant Professor and coordinator of the United States Programme at RSIS, "Defining Engagement," Journal of International Affairs, 0022197X, Spring2001, Vol. 54, Issue 2, http://web.ebscohost.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/ehost/detail?sid=1b56e6b4-ade2-4052-9114-7d107fdbd01940sessionmgr1226vid=226hid=2426bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ3d3d~~23db=mth26AN=4437301-http://web.ebscohost.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/ehost/detail?sid=1b56e6b4-ade2-4052-9114-7d107fdbd01940sessionmgr1226vid=226hid=2426bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ3d3d) Thus, a rigid conceptual distinction can be drawn between engagement and appeasement. Whereas B. Violation – they remove restrictions – that’s appeasementC. Voting issue1. Limits – infinite amount of restrictions the aff can remove – explodes neg research burden2. Ground – Lose spending links based off of increases in fundingThat’s a voting issuePrefer predictable ground over all other impacts because it’s a prerequisite to effective clash or decision making – its only possible under a limited topic3Diaz-Canel solves the aff – he’s a pragmatic reformer and creates space to lift the embargo in 2018Dallas Morning News, 13 - editorial ("Editorial: U.S. should reconsider embargo when Castros’ reign ends", 2/28/13, http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130228-editorial-u.s.-should-reconsider-embargo-when-castros-reign-ends.ece)//TL-http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130228-editorial-u.s.-should-reconsider-embargo-when-castros-reign-ends.ece)//TL For years, the accepted view was that the end of the Castro regime in Slow change key to Cuban reform - avoids rapid regime collapseFeinberg 11 - professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident senior fellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., "Reaching Out: Cuba’s New Economy and the International Response", November, Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/1820cuba20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)//ID-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18 cuba feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)ID Gradualism: Gradualism in economic reform—as opposed to an Eastern European-style Rapid change risks Cuban civil warFeinberg 11 - professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident senior fellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., "Reaching Out: Cuba’s New Economy and the International Response", November, Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/~~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/1820cuba20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf-http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18 cuba feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)ID This turns every part of the affNAÍM, 1 – editor of Foreign Policy (MOISÉS, "When Countries go Crazy", MARCH 1, 2001, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2001/03/01/when_countries_go_crazy)//eek Some countries can drive other countries crazy. When people have this effect on one 4The European Union should-Replace the Common Position with a position towards Cuba that emphasizes support for expanding political and civil liberties, the importance of dialogue, and continued economic engagement-Establish a high-level non-governmental forum for multilateral dialogue on Cuba policy-Encourage the integration of Cuba into the global economic and political system-Provide technical expertise, advice and financing for Cuban democracy assistanceThe EU’s initiatives in Latin America reform regional economies to create integration, coordination, and access to foreign markets.Perales ’8 ~April 30, 2008. José Antonio Sanahuja Perales is the Director of the Department of Development and Cooperation at the Complutense Institute of International Studies. "The effectiveness of European Union development cooperation with Latin America: assessment and perspectives" http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2004_2009/documents/dv/200/200809/20080910_D-CL_EUALCCOOP_EN.pdf~~** 5Economic Engagement is the mechanism for neoliberal enclosures - The new enclosures are different from the violent bloody expropriation of the English countryside. The regime of neoliberal capital works by enclosing the last vestiges of public commons and embedding them within new markets.A Haroon Akram-Lodhi ’7 Department of International Development Studies, Trent University (Third World Quarterly Vol. 28, No. 8, 2007, pp 1437 – 1456) The Impact: the process of enclosure is a continuation of the same process that colonized the South – the expansion of neoliberal enclosure creates global violence and global death zones of humanity – perpetual suffering and violence is inevitable.Balibar ’4, Emeritus Professor of Philosophy at The University of Paris-X, 2004 ~Etienne, also Distinguished Professor of Humanities at University of California at Irvine, We, The People Of Europe?: Reflections On Transnational Citizenship, p. 115-116, 126-129~ Alternative – Endorse commons, not enclosures. The articulation and advocacy on behalf of commons is a necessary first step that paves the way towards life despite capitalism – by identifying and endorsing commons, the alternative prepares the world to resist neoliberalism.De Angelis 6 ~Massimo De Angelis, Professor of Political Economy at the University of East London, "The Beginning of History 6China AdvantageCan’t solve China Crowd out- No reason engagement in Cuba takes China out of other countries in Latin America like Venezuela or Bolivia –means competition and escalation is inevitable====Chinese influence in Latin America not a threat to US security or hegemony –their evidence is alarmist ==== Economic interdependence checks US-China war- they have too much to lose====Strong trade leverage in the TPP is the lynchpin to an effective Asia pivot==== Pivot risks multiple miscalculated nuclear warsGross 2012 (Donald Gross, a Pacific Forum CSIS Senior Associate, is a former White House and State Department official whose new book, The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China’s Rise and Avoid Another Cold War, was published in October by Bloomsbury. Alt cause to US-Sino war- tensions in eastern asia will inevitably lead to Chinese belligerenceChinese trade is the only way to boost Cuba’s economyCerna 11 (Michael Cerna, graduate student in International Policy Management at Kennesaw State University, "China’s Growing Presence in Latin America: Implications for U.S. and Chinese Presence in the Region" http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-and-chinese-presence-in-the-region/ 4-15-11) Economy AdvantageStatus quo solves – trade with other countriesSeaman 10 (David Seaman, Prof., Social Science, U. Osnabruck, Germany, "U.S. Democracy Promotion: The Case of Cuba, http://www.blissfieldschools.us/downloads/justin_pooley/casebook_2_inherency_2013_20130611_075447_1.pdf 2010) No chance of terror attack—-too tough to executeJohn Mueller and Mark G. Stewart 12, Senior Research Scientist at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and Adjunct Professor in the Department of Political Science, both at Ohio State University, and Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute AND Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow and Professor and Director at the Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability at the University of Newcastle, "The Terrorism Delusion," Summer, International Security, Vol. 37, No. 1, politicalscience.osu.edu/faculty/jmuellerabsisfin.pdf .13 Another study documents the difficulties of network coordination that continually threaten the terrorists’ Raul would resist dramatic change—the US needs to engage gradually to ensure future breakthroughsColvin, 08 (Jake, fellow with the New Ideas Fund, a group that seeks new approaches and paradigms for U.S. national security and foreign policy. He is also Vice President for Global Trade Issues at the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC) and oversees the Cuba initiative of USA*Engage, "The Case for a New Cuba Policy", 12/23/2008, http://web.archive.org/web/20120904201743/http://www.newideasfund.org/proposals/Colvin20-20Cuba20-20Master.pdf)** ?97 Still, presidents from John F. Kennedy to Reagan have demonstrated a Cuba will become a failed state if massive changes are implemented—large economic changes in Cuba would lead to destabilization and the collapse of all governmental systems in the countryAzel Sep-08 (José, "How to Think About Change in Cuba: A Guide for Policymakers," José Azel is currently a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Cuban and CubanAmerican Studies, University of Miami, http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/Article-Azel-FINAL.pdf-http://ctp.iccas.miami.edu/Research_Studies/Article-Azel-FINAL.pdf) This turns the Aff, makes armed conflict inevitable, and triggers a laundry list of impactsTreto, 2012 (Carlos, Professor and Senior researcher at the University of Havana’s
No chance of war from economic decline—-best and most recent dataDaniel W. Drezner 12, Professor, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, October 2012, "The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked," http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/IR-Colloquium-MT12-Week-5_The-Irony-of-Global-Economic-Governance.pdf-http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/wp-content/uploads/IR-Colloquium-MT12-Week-5_The-Irony-of-Global-Economic-Governance.pdf No Uniqueness-Latin American economies are strong now- neither side needs each other to prevent collapse – means economic collapse won’t occur – not reciprocalBioterror impact is inevitable- their Bryan card is from 2001 and says that there a bunch of other Latin American nations that are unstable- the plan can’t solve for those nations so terrorists will just use themNo impact to bioterrorDove 12 ~Alan Dove, PhD in Microbiology, science journalist and former Adjunct Professor at New York University, "Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Bioterrorist?" Jan 24 2012, http://alandove.com/content/2012/01/whos-afraid-of-the-big-bad-bioterrorist/~~ | 9/28/13 |
1NC Borders KTournament: Fullerton | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - The affirmative’s invocation of the nation-state is neither objective nor benign – their uncritical acceptance of the modern geopolitical map effaces historical violence and legitimates the authority of violent cartographies. Michel Foucault put the matter of geographic partisanship succinctly when he noted that "territory The impact is global and unending warfare – the strategic deployment of territorial nationalism is the root cause of armed conflict. As I showed in my reading of Clausewitz in chapter 2, the outward aiming | 11/24/13 |
1NC FrameworkTournament: TOC | Round: 1 | Opponent: ACORN AJ | Judge: Scott Brown Resolved is used to introduce a policy resolution—limited to the question of the resolution A motion is a proposal that the assembly take certain action, or that it express itself as holding certain views. It is made by a member's obtaining the floor as already described and saying, "I move that" (which is equivalent to saying, "I propose that"), and then stating the action he proposes to have taken. Thus a member "moves" (proposes) that a resolution be adopted, or amended, or referred to a committee, or that a vote of thanks be extended, etc.; or "That it is the sense of this meeting (or assembly) that industrial training," etc. Every resolution should be in writing, and the presiding officer has a right to require any main motion, amendment, or instructions to a committee to be in writing. When a main motion is of such importance or length as to be in writing it is usually written in the form of a resolution; that is, beginning with the words, "Resolved, That," the word "Resolved " being underscored (printed in italics) and followed by a comma, and the word "That" beginning with a capital "T." If the word "Resolved" were replaced by the words "I move," the resolution would become a motion. A resolution is always a main motion. In some sections of the country the word "resolve" is frequently used instead of "resolution." In assemblies with paid employees, instructions given to employees are called "orders" instead of "resolutions," and the enacting word, "Ordered" is used instead of "Resolved." continues After a question has been stated by the chair, it is before the assembly for consideration and action. All resolutions, reports of committees, communications to the assembly, and all amendments proposed to them, and all other motions except the Undebatable Motions mentioned in 45, may be debated before final action is taken on them, unless by a two-thirds vote the assembly decides to dispose of them without debate. By a two-thirds vote is meant two-thirds of the votes cast, a quorum being present. In the debate each member has the right to speak twice on the same question on the same day (except on an appeal), but cannot make a second speech on the same question as long as any member who has not spoken on that question desires the floor. No one can speak longer than ten minutes at a time without permission of the assembly. Debate must be limited to the merits of the immediately pending question — that is, the last question stated by the chair that is still pending; except that in a few cases the main question is also open to debate 45. Speakers must address their remarks to the presiding officer, be courteous in their language and deportment, and avoid all personalities, never alluding to the officers or other members by name, where possible to avoid it, nor to the motives of members. “Should” is obligatory "Should" is "used . . . to express duty, obligation, propriety, or expediency." Webster's Third New International Dictionary 2104 (2002). Courts 15 interpreting the word in various contexts have drawn conflicting conclusions, although the weight of authority appears to favor interpreting "should" in an imperative, obligatory sense. HN7A number of courts, confronted with the question of whether using the word "should" in jury instructions conforms with the Fifth and Sixth Amendment protections governing the reasonable doubt standard, have upheld instructions using the word. In the courts of other states in which a defendant has argued that the word "should" in the reasonable doubt instruction does not sufficiently inform the jury that it is bound to find the defendant not guilty if insufficient proof is submitted at trial, the courts have squarely rejected the argument. They reasoned that the word "conveys a sense of duty and obligation and could not be misunderstood by a jury." See State v. McCloud, 257 Kan. 1, 891 P.2d 324, 335 (Kan. 1995); see also Tyson v. State, 217 Ga. App. 428, 457 S.E.2d 690, 691-92 (Ga. Ct. App. 1995) (finding argument that "should" is directional but not instructional to be without merit); Commonwealth v. Hammond, 350 Pa. Super. 477, 504 A.2d 940, 941-42 (Pa. Super. Ct. 1986). Notably, courts interpreting the word "should" in other types of jury instructions 16 have also found that the word conveys to the jury a sense of duty or obligation and not discretion. In Little v. State, 261 Ark. 859, 554 S.W.2d 312, 324 (Ark. 1977), the Arkansas Supreme Court interpreted the word "should" in an instruction on circumstantial evidence as synonymous with the word "must" and rejected the defendant's argument that the jury may have been misled by the court's use of the word in the instruction. Similarly, the Missouri Supreme Court rejected a defendant's argument that the court erred by not using the word "should" in an instruction on witness credibility which used the word "must" because the two words have the same meaning. State v. Rack, 318 S.W.2d 211, 215 (Mo. 1958). *318 In applying a child support statute, the Arizona Court of Appeals concluded that a legislature's or commission's use of the word "should" is meant to convey duty or obligation. McNutt v. McNutt, 203 Ariz. 28, 49 P.3d 300, 306 (Ariz. Ct. App. 2002) (finding a statute stating that child support expenditures "should" be allocated for the purpose of parents' federal tax exemption to be mandatory). Substantial means full effect---must be tangible increase in restrictions The words "outward, open, actual, risible, substantial, and exclusive," in connection with a change of possession, mean substantially the same thing. They mean not concealed; not bidden; exposed to view; free from concealment dissimulation, reserve, or disguise; in full existence; denoting that which not merely can be, but is opposed to potential, apparent, constructive, and imaginary; veritable; genuine; certain; absolute; real at present time, as a matter of fact, not merely nominal; opposed to form; actually existing; true; not including, admitting, or pertaining to any others; undivided; sole; opposed to inclusive. Bass v. Pease, 79 111. App. 308, 31R Increase denotes a specific change Also related to the waiver issue is appellees' defense relying on a provision of the insurance policy that suspends coverage where the risk is increased by any means within the knowledge or control of the insured. However, the term "increase" connotes change. To show change, appellees would have been required to present evidence of the condition of the building at the time the policy was issued. See 5 J. Appleman and J. Appleman, Insurance Law and Practice, § 2941 at 4-5 (1970). Because no such evidence was presented, this court cannot determine, on this record, whether the risk has, in fact, been increased. Indeed, the answer to this question may depend on Mr. Glassley's knowledge of the condition of the building at the time the policy was issued, see 17 J. Appleman and J. Appleman, Insurance Law and Practice, § 9602 at 515-16 (1981), since the fundamental issue is whether the appellees contemplated insuring the risk which incurred the loss. Economic Engagement must create structural linkages. The basic causal logic of economic engagement, and the emphasis on domestic politics, can be traced to Hirschman. He viewed economic engagement as a long-term, transformative strategy. As one state gradually expands economic interaction with its target, the resulting (asymmetrical) interdependence creates vested interests within the target society and government. The beneficiaries of interdependence become addicted to it, and they protect their interests by pressuring the government to accommodate the source of interdependence. Economic engagement is a form of structural linkage; it is a means to get other states to want what you want, rather than to do what you want. The causal chain runs from economic interdependence through domestic political change to foreign policy accommodation. B. Violation – the 1AC fails to advance a topical discussion substantially increasing economic engagement. The affirmative instead looks to engage in the negative space of the topic to discuss the the ills of neoliberalism and imperialism which are distinct economic engagement. They claim to win the debate for reasons other than the desirability of topical action. That undermines preparation and clash. Changing the question now leaves one side unprepared, resulting in shallow, un-educational debate. Requiring debate on a communal topic forces argument development and develops persuasive skills critical to any political outcome. From the Framers onward, Americans have always considered civic literacy critical for a thriving democracy. “A well-instructed people alone can be permanently a free people,” noted James Madison, the father of the Constitution and fourth president, in 1810. Americans continue to agree. A 1997 survey by the National Constitution Center (NCC) found that 84 percent of Americans believed that for the government to work as intended, citizens needed to be informed and active. Three-quarters of those polled claimed that the Constitution mattered in their daily lives, and almost as many people thought the Constitution impacted events in America today. Yet, despite this nod to civic literacy, too few Americans could answer the questions on the citizenship test or similar questions. Forty-one percent of respondents to the NCC national survey were not aware that there were three branches of government, and 62 percent couldn’t name them; 33 percent couldn’t even name one. Over half of all those answering the NCC survey did not know the length of a term for a member of the Senate or House of Representatives. And another NCC study found that while 71 percent of teens knew that “www” starts an online web address, only 35 percent knew that “We the People” are the opening words of the Constitution. A study by the Intercollegiate Studies Institute found that “the average college senior knows astoundingly little about America’s history, government, international relations and market economy, earning an ‘F’ on the American civic literacy exam with a score of 54.2 percent.” The drop-off in civic literacy has also helped fuel the erosion of the national political consensus that drove the soaring successes of post-war America. During that period the federal government grew from a distant star in a far-off galaxy to the daily light of our political life. As Richard Nixon noted in his 1970 State of the Union address, “Ours has become–as it continues to be, and should remain a society of large expectations. Government helped to generate these expectations. It undertook to meet them.” It undertook to meet them through responding to the consensus demands for a number of economic, civil, and environmental rights established through, for example, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, and a broad expansion of environmental protections. But by 1970, this grand consensus was only a memory. Its dissolution came about for many reasons, but it is no accident that it coincided with the decline in civic education and civic literacy. In fact, the two have driven each other–political dissolution made it harder to speak about American civics, but the lack of such discussion guaranteed that Americans, particularly students, would enter the world with a dimmer conception of American life and a shakier commitment to a community beyond their narrow self-interests. In this disharmony, the spirit of “we” was replaced by a culture of “me” (or, sometimes, “us,” as groups vied for advantage). We were (and are) living through “the growth of a politics based upon narrow concerns, rooted in the exploitative divisions of class, cash, gender, region, ethnicity, morality and ideology–a give no quarter and take no prisoners activism that demands satisfaction and accepts no compromise,” as David Frohnmayer, the President of the University of Oregon, put it. The result is a culture and government that can make only halting progress. Lacking a deep sense of civic life, we demand things for ourselves and our group without an appreciation of the give-and-take inherent in American politics. The expectation the Framers had of “mutual concessions and sacrifices…mutual forbearance and conciliation” became replaced by a civically illiterate nation, unappreciative and unforgiving of a government that was not fulfilling their demands. Today more and more people are ‘doing politics ’ in their academic work. This is the reason for the boom in International Relations study and the attraction of other social sciences to the global sphere. I would argue that the attraction of IR for many people has not been IR theory but the desire to practice global ethics. The boom in the IR discipline has coincided with a rejection of Realist theoretical frameworks of power and interests and the sovereignty/anarchy problematic. However, I would argue that this rejection has not been a product of theoretical engagement with Realism but an ethical act of rejection of Realism’s ontological focus. It seems that our ideas and our theories say much more about us than the world we live in. Normative theorists and Constructivists tend to support the global ethical turn arguing that we should not be as concerned with ‘what is’ as with the potential for the emergence of global ethical community. Constructivists, in particular, focus upon the ethical language which political elites espouse rather than the practices of power. But the most dangerous trends in the discipline today are those frameworks which have taken up Critical theory and argue that focusing on the world as it exists is conservative ‘problem -solving’ while the task for critical theorists is to focus on emancipatory alternative form s of living or of thinking about the world. Critical thought then becomes a process of wishful thinking rather than one of engagement, 6 with its advocates arguing that we need to focus on clarifying our own ethical frameworks and biases and positionality before thinking about or teaching on world affairs; in the process this becomes ‘m e-search’ rather than research. We have moved a long way from Hedley Bull’s perspective that, for academic research to be truly radical, we had to put our values to the side to follow where the question or inquiry might lead. The inward-looking and narcissistic trends in academia, where we are m o re concerned with our ‘reflectivity ’ – the awareness of our own ethics and values - than with engaging with the world, was brought home to me when I asked my IR students which theoretical frameworks they agreed with most and they replied mostly Critical theory and Constructivism despite the fact that they thought that states operated on the basis of power and self -interest in a world of anarchy. Their theoretical preferences were based more on what their choices said about them as ethical individuals than about how theory might be used to understand and engage with the world. Conclusion I have attempted to argue that there is a lot at stake in the new politics of global ethics. Politics has become a religious activity, an activity which is no longer socially mediated; it is less and less an activity based on social engagement and the testing of ideas in public debate or in the academy. Doing politics today, whether in radical activism , government policy - m a king, or in academia, seems to bring people into a one-to-one relationship with global issues in the same way religious people have a one-to-one relationship with their God. Politics is increasingly like religion because when we look for meaning we find it inside ourselves rather than in the external consequences of our ‘political ’ acts. W h at matters is the conviction or the act in itself: its connection to the global sphere is one that we increasingly tend to provide idealistically. Another way of expressing this limited sense of our subjectivity is in the popularity of globalisation theory – the idea that instrumentality is n o longer possible today because the world is such a complex and interconnected place and therefore there is no way of knowing the consequences of our actions. The more we engage in the new politics where there is an unmediated 7 relationship between us as individuals and global issues, the less we engage instrumentally with the outside world and the less we engage with our peers and colleagues at the level of political or intellectual debate and organization. Debate is a means of settling differences, so there must be a difference of opinion or a conflict of interest before there can be a debate. If everyone is in agreement on a tact or value or policy, there is no need for debate: the matter can be settled by unanimous consent. Thus, for example, it would be pointless to attempt to debate "Resolved: That two plus two equals four," because there is simply no controversy about this statement. (Controversy is an essential prerequisite of debate. Where there is no clash of ideas, proposals, interests, or expressed positions on issues, there is no debate. In addition, debate cannot produce effective decisions without clear identification of a question or questions to be answered. For example, general argument may occur about the broad topic of illegal immigration. How many illegal immigrants are in the United States? What is the impact of illegal immigration and immigrants on our economy? What is their impact on our communities? Do they commit crimes? Do they take jobs from American workers? Do they pay taxes? Do they require social services? Is it a problem that some do not speak English? Is it the responsibility of employers to discourage illegal immigration by not hiring undocumented workers? Should they have the opportunity- to gain citizenship? Docs illegal immigration pose a security threat to our country? Do illegal immigrants do work that American workers are unwilling to do? Are their rights as workers and as human beings at risk due to their status? Are they abused by employers, law enforcement, housing, and businesses? I low are their families impacted by their status? What is the moral and philosophical obligation of a nation state to maintain its borders? Should we build a wall on the Mexican border, establish a national identification can!, or enforce existing laws against employers? Should we invite immigrants to become U.S. citizens? Surely you can think of many more concerns to be addressed by a conversation about the topic area of illegal immigration. Participation in this "debate" is likely to be emotional and intense. However, it is not likely to be productive or useful without focus on a particular question and identification of a line demarcating sides in the controversy. To be discussed and resolved effectively, controversies must be stated clearly. Vague understanding results in unfocused deliberation and poor decisions, frustration, and emotional distress, as evidenced by the failure of the United States Congress to make progress on the immigration debate during the summer of 2007.¶ Someone disturbed by the problem of the growing underclass of poorly educated, socially disenfranchised youths might observe, "Public schools are doing a terrible job! They are overcrowded, and many teachers are poorly qualified in their subject areas. Even the best teachers can do little more than struggle to maintain order in their classrooms." That same concerned citizen, facing a complex range of issues, might arrive at an unhelpful decision, such as "We ought to do something about this" or. worse. "It's too complicated a problem to deal with." Groups of concerned citizens worried about the state of public education could join together to express their frustrations, anger, disillusionment, and emotions regarding the schools, but without a focus for their discussions, they could easily agree about the sorry state of education without finding points of clarity or potential solutions. A gripe session would follow. But if a precise question is posed—such as "What can be done to improve public education?"—then a more profitable area of discussion is opened up simply by placing a focus on the search for a concrete solution step. One or more judgments can be phrased in the form of debate propositions, motions for parliamentary debate, or bills for legislative assemblies. The statements "Resolved: That the federal government should implement a program of charter schools in at-risk communities" and "Resolved: That the state of Florida should adopt a school voucher program" more clearly identify specific ways of dealing with educational problems in a manageable form, suitable for debate. They provide specific policies to be investigated and aid discussants in identifying points of difference.¶ To have a productive debate, which facilitates effective decision making by directing and placing limits on the decision to be made, the basis for argument should be clearly defined. If we merely talk about "homelessness" or "abortion" or "crime'* or "global warming" we are likely to have an interesting discussion but not to establish profitable basis for argument. For example, the statement "Resolved: That the pen is mightier than the sword" is debatable, yet fails to provide much basis for clear argumentation. If we take this statement to mean that the written word is more effective than physical force for some purposes, we can identify a problem area: the comparative effectiveness of writing or physical force for a specific purpose.¶ Although we now have a general subject, we have not yet stated a problem. It is still too broad, too loosely worded to promote well-organized argument. What sort of writing are we concerned with—poems, novels, government documents, website development, advertising, or what? What does "effectiveness" mean in this context? What kind of physical force is being compared—fists, dueling swords, bazookas, nuclear weapons, or what? A more specific question might be. "Would a mutual defense treaty or a visit by our fleet be more effective in assuring Liurania of our support in a certain crisis?" The basis for argument could be phrased in a debate proposition such as "Resolved: That the United States should enter into a mutual defense treatv with Laurania." Negative advocates might oppose this proposition by arguing that fleet maneuvers would be a better solution. This is not to say that debates should completely avoid creative interpretation of the controversy by advocates, or that good debates cannot occur over competing interpretations of the controversy; in fact, these sorts of debates may be very engaging. The point is that debate is best facilitated by the guidance provided by focus on a particular point of difference, which will be outlined in the following discussion. The second major problem with the critique that identifies a naivety in articulating debate and democracy is that it presumes that the primary pedagogical outcome of debate is speech capacities. But the democratic capacities built by debate are not limited to speech—as indicated earlier, debate builds capacity for critical thinking, analysis of public claims, informed decision making, and better public judgment. If the picture of modem political life that underwrites this critique of debate is a pessimistic view of increasingly labyrinthine and bureaucratic administrative politics, rapid scientific and technological change outpacing the capacities of the citizenry to comprehend them, and ever-expanding insular special-interest- and money-driven politics, it is a puzzling solution, at best, to argue that these conditions warrant giving up on debate. If democracy is open to rearticulation, it is open to rearticulation precisely because as the challenges of modern political life proliferate, the citizenry's capacities can change, which is one of the primary reasons that theorists of democracy such as Ocwey in The Public awl Its Problems place such a high premium on education (Dewey 1988,63, 154). Debate provides an indispensible form of education in the modem articulation of democracy because it builds precisely the skills that allow the citizenry to research and be informed about policy decisions that impact them, to son rhroueh and evaluate the evidence for and relative merits of arguments for and against a policy in an increasingly infonnation-rich environment, and to prioritize their time and political energies toward policies that matter the most to them.¶ The merits of debate as a tool for building democratic capacity-building take on a special significance in the context of information literacy. John Larkin (2005, HO) argues that one of the primary failings of modern colleges and universities is that they have not changed curriculum to match with the challenges of a new information environment. This is a problem for the course of academic study in our current context, but perhaps more important, argues Larkin, for the future of a citizenry that will need to make evaluative choices against an increasingly complex and multimediatcd information environment (ibid-). Larkin's study tested the benefits of debate participation on information-literacy skills and concluded that in-class debate participants reported significantly higher self-efficacy ratings of their ability to navigate academic search databases and to effectively search and use other Web resources:¶ To analyze the self-report ratings of the instructional and control group students, we first conducted a multivariate analysis of variance on all of the ratings, looking jointly at the effect of instmction/no instruction and debate topic . . . that it did not matter which topic students had been assigned . . . students in the Instnictional debate) group were significantly more confident in their ability to access information and less likely to feel that they needed help to do so----These findings clearly indicate greater self-efficacy for online searching among students who participated in (debate).... These results constitute strong support for the effectiveness of the project on students' self-efficacy for online searching in the academic databases. There was an unintended effect, however: After doing ... the project, instructional group students also felt more confident than the other students in their ability to get good information from Yahoo and Google. It may be that the library research experience increased self-efficacy for any searching, not just in academic databases. (Larkin 2005, 144)¶ Larkin's study substantiates Thomas Worthcn and Gaylcn Pack's (1992, 3) claim that debate in the college classroom plays a critical role in fostering the kind of problem-solving skills demanded by the increasingly rich media and information environment of modernity. Though their essay was written in 1992 on the cusp of the eventual explosion of the Internet as a medium, Worthcn and Pack's framing of the issue was prescient: the primary question facing today's student has changed from how to best research a topic to the crucial question of learning how to best evaluate which arguments to cite and rely upon from an easily accessible and veritable cornucopia of materials.¶ There are, without a doubt, a number of important criticisms of employing debate as a model for democratic deliberation. But cumulatively, the evidence presented here warrants strong support for expanding debate practice in the classroom as a technology for enhancing democratic deliberative capacities. The unique combination of critical thinking skills, research and information processing skills, oral communication skills, and capacities for listening and thoughtful, open engagement with hotly contested issues argues for debate as a crucial component of a rich and vital democratic life. In-class debate practice both aids students in achieving the best goals of college and university education, and serves as an unmatched practice for creating thoughtful, engaged, open-minded and self-critical students who are open to the possibilities of meaningful political engagement and new articulations of democratic life.¶ Expanding this practice is crucial, if only because the more we produce citizens that can actively and effectively engage the political process, the more likely we are to produce revisions of democratic life that are necessary if democracy is not only to survive, but to thrive. Democracy faces a myriad of challenges, including: domestic and international issues of class, gender, and racial justice; wholesale environmental destruction and the potential for rapid climate change; emerging threats to international stability in the form of terrorism, intervention and new possibilities for great power conflict; and increasing challenges of rapid globalization including an increasingly volatile global economic structure. More than any specific policy or proposal, an informed and active citizenry that deliberates with greater skill and sensitivity provides one of the best hopes for responsive and effective democratic governance, and by extension, one of the last best hopes for dealing with the existential challenges to democracy in an increasingly complex world. Take, for example, the war on terrorism and the Iraq War. After 9/11, Americans became appropriately worried about more attacks, and in turn they have, as they did in the past, looked to the President for protection. And President George W. Bush, as have earlier Presidents, responded. But his response has been based on a unique claim of unprecedented constitutional powers to engage our troops, wiretap our citizens, and torture our prisoners. “Monarchial prerogatives,” the Administration has labeled them. While the excessiveness of this view has roiled some of the Administration’s own loyalists, there has been no retreat from its assertion. There has been no need to. Congress has not asserted itself against this claim, in part because they would not take such a confrontational step without broad public support. And Americans have not been forceful in demanding that Congress protect our constitutional system. While there are various reasons for the public’s acquiescence, it is hard to posit that civic ignorance doesn’t rank high among them. If we assume it to be possible without recourse to violence to reach agreement on all the problems implied in the employment of the idea of justice we are granting the possibility of formulating an ideal of man and society, valid for all beings endowed with reason and accepted by what we have called elsewhere the universal audience.14¶ I think that the only discursive methods available to us stem from techniques that are not demonstrative—that is, conclusive and rational in the narrow sense of the term—but from argumentative techniques which are not conclusive but which may tend to demonstrate the reasonable character of the conceptions put forward. It is this recourse to the rational and reasonable for the realization of the ideal of universal communion that characterizes the age-long endeavor of all philosophies in their aspiration for a city of man in which violence may progressively give way to wisdom.13¶ Whenever an individual controls the dimensions of" a problem, he or she can solve the problem through a personal decision. For example, if the problem is whether to go to the basketball game tonight, if tickets are not too expensive and if transportation is available, the decision can be made individually. But if a friend's car is needed to get to the game, then that person's decision to furnish the transportation must be obtained.¶ Complex problems, too, are subject to individual decision making. American business offers many examples of small companies that grew into major corporations while still under the individual control of the founder. Some computer companies that began in the 1970s as one-person operations burgeoned into multimillion-dollar corporations with the original inventor still making all the major decisions. And some of the multibillion-dollar leveraged buyouts of the 1980s were put together by daring—some would say greedy—financiers who made the day-to-day and even hour-to-hour decisions individually.¶ When President George H. W. Bush launched Operation Desert Storm, when President Bill Clinton sent troops into Somalia and Haiti and authorized Operation Desert Fox, and when President George W. Bush authorized Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan and Operation Iraqi Freedom in Iraq, they each used different methods of decision making, but in each case the ultimate decision was an individual one. In fact, many government decisions can be made only by the president. As Walter Lippmann pointed out, debate is the only satisfactory way the exact issues can be decided:¶ A president, whoever he is, has to find a way of understanding the novel and changing issues which he must, under the Constitution, decide. Broadly speaking ... the president has two ways of making up his mind. The one is to turn to his subordinates—to his chiefs of staff and his cabinet officers and undersecretaries and the like—and to direct them to argue out the issues and to bring him an agreed decision…¶ The other way is to sit like a judge at a hearing where the issues to be decided are debated. After he has heard the debate, after he has examined the evidence, after he has heard the debaters cross-examine one another, after he has questioned them himself he makes his decision…¶ It is a much harder method in that it subjects the president to the stress of feeling the full impact of conflicting views, and then to the strain of making his decision, fully aware of how momentous it Is. But there is no other satisfactory way by which momentous and complex issues can be decided.16¶ John F. Kennedy used Cabinet sessions and National Security Council meetings to provide debate to illuminate diverse points of view, expose errors, and challenge assumptions before he reached decisions.17 As he gained experience in office, he placed greater emphasis on debate. One historian points out: "One reason for the difference between the Bay of Pigs and the missile crisis was that the Bay of Pig* fiasco instructed Kennedy in the importance of uninhibited debate in advance of major decision."18 All presidents, to varying degrees, encourage debate among their advisors.¶ We may never be called on to render the final decision on great issues of national policy, but we are constantly concerned with decisions important to ourselves for which debate can be applied in similar ways. That is, this debate may take place in our minds as we weigh the pros and cons of the problem, or we may arrange for others to debate the problem for us. Because we all are increasingly involved in the decisions of the campus, community, and society in general, it is in our intelligent self-interest to reach these decisions through reasoned debate. | 4/26/14 |
1NC Heg BadTournament: Notre Dame | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - Although cloaked in the reassuring boilerplate about American military preeminence and global leadership, in Best data concludes hegemony doesn’t solve war Strategy Based on Faith, Not Evidence Threats of hegemony are not credible – empirics prove The hegemonic-stability argument overestimates the capability of the United States Unilateralism makes solving diseases like bird flu impossible – only multipolarity reduces global resentment enough to allow for responses to pandemics The same is true for global public health. Globalization is turning the world into Disease outbreaks exacerbate political tension – ensure extinction and destroy the effectiveness of crisis-management At that point, the story moves quickly as the deadly new agent races around | 11/24/13 |
1NC Opacity KTournament: Fullerton | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - Celia M. Britton1999EdouardGlissant and Postcolonial Theory Strategies of Language and Resistance pp. 21-25 In rendering the other visible to the colonial gaze, the aff also renders coloniality invisible, dooming any hope of solvency. Celia M. Britton1999Edouard Glissant and Postcolonial Theory Strategies of Language and Resistance pp. 21-25 But whereas Glissant interprets this as a form of resistance, for Spivak it is merely a form of The border is probably inevitable regardless of what words the debaters speak in this round. What’s important is who presents a more actionable method of resistance. The aff thinks we should imagine a world where the border goes away – vote neg to instead affirm the illegal immigrant. Refusing to play by the rules of sovereign power is a moment insurgency that disrupts its performance that demands recognition, always looking at combating violence through recognition, an object that while it may be bound is not subject to its rules and steals its performance, this moment of fugitivity not only evades the surveillance of the colonizer, but reveals the violence and permeability of the border. | 11/24/13 |
1NC QDDR CPTournament: Notre Dame | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - When he was a senator, he loved it so much that he thought it QDDR creates a shift to smart power The revision and reorganization of US diplomatic and development strategies have been eagerly awaited by Essential to sustain leadership and global security I believe the balance the Committee is looking for is in the application of " Political changes have been even slower to emerge, although a space for peaceful dissent | 11/24/13 |
1NC Security KTournament: Fullerton | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - The end of the cold war spawned a tempting fantasy of imperial omnipotence on a Chinese threat construction assumes a knowable and essentially violent Chinese Other—this Western lens makes militarization and conflict inevitable. Having examined how the "China threat" literature The U. S. military appears to have been central in the construction of Terror talk is a violent act of discipline, extending hegemonic control over the globe and militarizing populations. Within the bounds of criminality, a The affirmative operates within a framework of nation-state security that leads to serial policy failure and renders all life calculable. This tells us much about the enduring power of crude instrumental versions of strategic thought The Alternative is to reject the affirmative’s security logic– only resistance to the discourse of security can open up space for genuine political thought The only way out of such a dilemma, to escape the fetish, is it requires us to be brave enough to return the gift.143 | 11/24/13 |
1NC Terror KTournament: ToC | Round: 3 | Opponent: Cedar Ridge PR | Judge: Evan Mccarthy Within the bounds of criminality, a subversive individual is produced who allows the further manifestation of disciplinary power. This delinquent figure, in doing the “dirty work” of the disciplinary society, becomes knowable by the patterns of his/her criminality. The very fact that the delinquent can be named as “madman,” as “maniac,” or even as “terrorist” provides for the possibility of his/her rehabilitation through the disciplinary mechanisms of the penal system. In short, the individual delinquent can be linked to a collectivity of delinquents within a history of delinquency such that his/her repeated transgressions become merely iterations of a predictable pattern of criminal behavior. In contrast to first-order critique, second-order critique involves the adoption of a critical standpoint outside of the discourse. In this case, based on an understanding of discourse as socially productive or constitutive, and fully cognisant of the knowledge–power nexus, a second-order critique attempts to expose the political functions and ideological consequences of the particular forms of representation enunciated by the discourse. In this case, we want to try and understand what some of the political effects and consequences of the silences of state terrorism are. A number of such effects can be identified. First, the discourse naturalises a particular understanding of what terrorism is, namely, a form of illegitimate non-state violence. Such an understanding of terrorism functions to restrict the scholarly viewpoint to one set of actors and to particular kinds of actions, and functions to distract and obscure other actors and actions which should be named and studied as ‘terrorism’. It also narrows the possibilities for understanding terrorism within alternative paradigms, such as from the perspective of gender terrorism (Sharlach 2008). In other words, it has a restrictive and distorting effect within the field of knowledge which gives the impression that terrorism studies is more of a narrow extension of counter-insurgency or national security studies than an open and inclusive domain of research into all forms and aspects of terrorism. Consequently, Silke (2001) concludes that terrorism studies ‘is largely driven by policy concerns’ and ‘largely limited to government agendas’ (p. 2). In addition, the broader academic, social, and cultural influence of terrorism studies (through the authority and legitimacy provided by ‘terrorism experts’ to the media and as policy advisers, for example), means that this restrictive viewpoint is diffused to the broader society, which in turn generates its own ideological effects. Specifically, the distorted focus on non-state terrorism functions to reify state perspectives and priorities, and reinforce a state-centric, problem-solving paradigm of politics in which ‘terrorism’ is viewed as an identifiable social or individual problem in need of solving by the state, and not as a practice of state power, for example. From this perspective, it functions to maintain the legitimacy of state uses of violence and delegitimise all forms of non-state violence (which has its own ideological effects and is problematic in a number of obvious ways). This fundamental belief in the instrumental rationality of political violence as an effective and legitimate tool of the state is open to a great many criticisms, not least that it provides the normative basis from which non-state terrorist groups frequently justify their own (often well-intentioned) violence (Oliverio and Lauderdale 2005, Burke 2008). There is from this viewpoint an ethical imperative to try and undermine the widespread acceptance that political violence is a mostly legitimate and effective option in resolving conflict – for either state or non-state actors. Political violence is in fact, a moral and physical disaster in the vast majority of cases. From an ethical-normative perspective, such a restricted understanding of terrorism also functions to obscure and silence the voices and perspectives of those who live in conditions of daily terror from the random and arbitrary violence of their own governments, some of whom are supported by Western states. At the present juncture, it also functions to silence the voices of those who experience Western policies – directly, as in those tortured in the war on terror, and indirectly, as in those suffering under Western-supported regimes – as a form of terrorism. That is, it deflects and diverts attention from the much greater state terrorism which blights the lives of tens of millions of people around the world today. Related to these broader normative and ideological effects, the treatment of state terrorism within the discourse – the silences on it and the narrow construction of ‘state-sponsored terrorism’ – also functions to position state terrorism (should it even exist within the dominant framework) as seemingly less important than non-state terrorism, and as confined to the actions that states take in support of non-state terrorism. This also distorts the field of knowledge and political practice by suggesting that the sponsorship of Palestinian groups by Iran for example, is an infinitely more serious and dangerous problem than the fact that millions of Colombians, Uzbeks, Zimbabweans, and so on, are daily terrorised by death squads, state torture, and serious human rights abuses. Within this discursive terrain, it can also function to provide legitimacy to Western policies such as sanctions, coercive diplomacy, and pre-emptive war against politically determined ‘state-sponsors of terrorism’ which may be terroristic themselves, and which ignore the involvement in state-sponsorship by Western states. From a political-normative viewpoint, the silence on state terrorism, and in particular the argument of many terrorism scholars that state actions can never be defined as ‘terrorism’, actually functions to furnish states with a rhetorical justification for using what may actually be terroristic forms of violence against their opponents and citizens without fear of condemnation. In effect, it provides them with greater leeway for applying terror-based forms of violence against civilians, a leeway exploited by many states such as Israel, Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe, and others who try to intimidate groups with the application of massive and disproportionate state violence. From this perspective, a discourse which occludes and obscures the very possibility of state terrorism can be considered part of the conditions that actually makes state terrorism possible. In addition, the silence on state terrorism within the field also functions to undermine the political struggle of human rights activists against the use of terror by states by disallowing the delegitimising power and resources that come from describing state actions as ‘terrorism’. It is pertinent to note in this context that the world’s leading states have continually rejected any and all attempts to legally define and proscribe a category of actions which would be called ‘state terrorism’, arguing instead that such actions are already covered by other laws such as the laws of war (Becker 2006). The silence on state terrorism has another political effect, namely, the way in which it has functioned, and continues to function, to distract from and deny the long history of Western involvement in terrorism, thereby constructing Western foreign policy as essentially benign – rather than aimed at reifying existing structures of power and domination in the international system, for example. That is, by preventing the effective criticism of particular Western policies it works to maintain the dangerous myth of Western exceptionalism. This sense of exceptionalism and the supportive discourse of terrorism studies permits Western states and their allies to pursue a range of discrete political projects and partisan interests aimed at maintaining international dominance. For example, by reinforcing the notion that non-state terrorism is a much greater threat and problem than state terrorism and by obscuring the ways in which counterterrorism can morph into state terrorism, the discourse functions to legitimise the current war on terror and its associated policies of military intervention, extraordinary rendition, reinforcement of the national security state, and the like. More specifically, the discourse can provide legitimacy to broader counter-insurgency or counterterrorism programmes where the actual aims lie in the maintenance of a particular political–economic order such as is occurring in Colombia at present (Stokes 2006). Importantly, the silence on state terrorism also functions to de-legitimise all forms of violent counter-hegemonic or revolutionary struggle (by maintaining the notion that state violence is automatically legitimate and all non-state violence is inherently illegitimate), thereby maintaining the liberal international order and many oppressive international power structures (also Duffield 2001). Lastly, the discourse can be used to selectively justify particular projects of regime change,13 economic sanctions, military base expansion, military occupation, military assistance for strategic partners, and the isolation of disapproved political movements such as Hamas or Hezbollah. In the end, the discourse functions to permit the reification and extension of state hegemony both internationally and domestically, and perhaps more importantly, the belief in the instrumental rationality of violence as an effective tool of politics. Despite the intentions of terrorism scholars therefore, who may feel that they engage in objective academic analysis of a clearly defined phenomenon, the discourse actually serves a number of distinctly political purposes and has several important ideological consequences for society. | 4/26/14 |
1NC Vagueness T NTRTournament: Glenbrooks | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - 2. Increase refers to an immediate and direct action not an objective. 9.1 The Draft Bill creates an obligation on the principal regulator to do French, 9 – editor of and a frequent contributor to The Havana Note. She has led more than two dozen research trips to Cuba (Anya, “Options for Engagement A Resource Guide for Reforming U.S. Policy toward Cuba” http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/library/resources/documents/Cuba/USPolicy/options-for-engagement.pdf) If the United States were to lift its trade embargo against Cuba, this would The plan will be ruled “void for vagueness” – and struck down A statute may be void for vagueness when (1) it is so indeterminate | 11/24/13 |
1NC Vagueness T TopicallyTournament: Glenbrooks | Round: 1 | Opponent: - | Judge: - The plan will be ruled “void for vagueness” – and struck down A statute may be void for vagueness when (1) it is so indeterminate | 11/24/13 |
1NRTournament: Jack Howe Invitational - CSU Long Beach | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola MN | Judge: The disad outweighs and turns the case:Failure to boost the economy causes Chinese collapse.Pethokoukis 9/22 (James, money and politics blogger for U.S. News 26 World Report , where he writes the monthly Capital Commerce magazine column. Pethokoukis is also the assistant managing editor of the magazine’s Money 26 Business section, "Bailout Prevents Great Depression 2.0," 2008, http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/09/22/bailout-prevents-great-depression-20.html) Nope, I think they believed, and got Congress to believe, that the Economic collapse causes terrorism and collapses PakistanWarrick 8, Washington Post, Joby, November 15, "Experts See Security Risks in Downturn, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/14/AR2008111403864.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/14/AR2008111403864.html Intelligence officials are warning that the deepening global financial crisis could weaken fragile governments in TURNS HEG –YOU DIDN’T READ HEG IN THE 1AC BUT IT DOESN’T MATTER - THE ECONOMY IS KEY TO INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE – WE CONTROL THE INTERNAL LINK.Mason, 8 The crux of the American problem is economic decline because much of America’s global TIMEFRAME OF DEBT CEILING MEANS WE OUTWEIGH - THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING DEFAULT IF THIS DOESN’T PASS BY THE END OF THE YEAR – THAT RESULTS IN COLLAPSED HEGEMONY, NO INTERNATIONAL CREDIBILITY TO PREVENT BIOTERROR, AND SUSPENDS A TON OF OUR MILITARY OPERATIONS OVERSEAS WHICH TRIGGERS BIOTERRORISM.THEY SAY CASE OUTWEIGHS – THAT’S ABOVEUNIQUENESS DEBATEBOEHNER HAS ALWAYS FLAUNTED ABOUT HIS WILLINGNESS TO DEFAULT BUT EMPIRICALLY HAS GIVEN IN WHEN OBAMA HAS HORSETRADED WITH HIM – THAT’S THE BUSINESS INSIDER====WILL PASS – ==== ====A.There is only a risk of the link - democrats are united in their support of a clean debt ceiling bill.==== B. Obama controls the messageEASLEY 9/18/2013 Politics USA Staff ~Jason Easley, Obama’s Genius Labeling of GOP Demands Extortion Has Already Won The Debt Ceiling Fight, http://www.politicususa.com/2013/09/18/obamas-genius-labeling-gop-demands-extortion-won-debt~-~-http://www.politicususa.com/2013/09/18/obamas-genius-labeling-gop-demands-extortion-won-debt-ceiling-fight.htmlceiling-fight.html-http://www.politicususa.com/2013/09/18/obamas-genius-labeling-gop-demands-extortion-won-debt-ceiling-fight.html~~ Obama use of the term extortion to describe the House Republican debt ceiling demands was a step forward in a strategy that has already made it a near certainty that he will win this standoff. C. The House will foldBOLTON 9/12/2013 ~Alexander Bolton, "Reid ’really frightened’ over potential for government shutdown ," The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/321923-reid-really-frightened-of-possible-government-shutdown-after-meeting-with-boehner-http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/321923-reid-really-frightened-of-possible-government-shutdown-after-meeting-with-boehner~~ Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said he is scared of GROUP THEIR EVIDENCE – BOTH CARDS ARE A SNAPSHOT OF THE POLITICAL SCENE – THE STRATEGY OF ATTACHING HEALTH CARE TO DEBT CEILING WAS GIVEN UP A LONG TIME AGO – THEY’ROUR UNIQUENESS EVIDENCE ASSUMES THEIRS AND IS PREDICTIVE INSOFAR AS IT DISCUSSES MOMENTUM.FIAT DOESN’T SOLVE THE LINK – OUR INTERPRETATION IS THAT THE PLAN SHOULD PASS CONGRESS THROUGH NORMAL MEANS WITH CONGRESSIONAL DISCUSSION. EVEN IF THE PLAN IS PASSED CONTROVERSY COULD STILL HAPPEN.THEY FUNCTIONALLY FIAT POLICYMAKERS WHICH IS ABUSIVE – THEY DON’T GET TO DETERMINE IDEOLOGY.ALSO OUR LINK ARGUMENTS PROVE WHY PUSHING THE PLAN THROUGH IS UNPOPULAR.LINK DEBATE – GROUPTHEIR EVIDENCE IS TERRIBLE – IT DOESN’T TALK ABOUT CONGRESS AT ALL – AND IT TALKS ABOUT HOW LIBERALS LIKE THE PLAN – THAT DOESN’T APPLY. OUR LEOGRANDE EVIDENCE TALKS ABOUT EMPIRICAL EXAMPLES ABOUT WHEN OBAMA PUSHED FOR CUBA POLICY BUT WAS SHUT DOWN BY THE CONSERVATIVES.WE DON’T HAVE TO PROVE THAT THE PLAN IS HATED, JUST THAT IT SPARKS ENOUGH OF A FIGHT TO DRAIN SOME POLITICAL CAPITAL.Costs Capital, outweighs turns and ensures spillover derailing Obamas top UNRELATED agenda priorities – several reasonsLeoGrande, 12 The Republicans’ sweeping victory in the 2010 mid-term elections put the House back Drains capital and empirically spills over to FISCAL legislationSwanson, 9 (Ian, News Editor @ The Hill, The Hill, 4/10, http://thehill.com/homenews/news/19161-obama-to-lift-some-restrictions-on-cuba** COMPARTIMENTALIZATION DEBATE –Issues tradeoff for ObamaWalsh ’12 ~Ken covers the White House and politics for U.S. News. "Setting Clear Priorities Will Be Key for Obama," 12/20, http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/Ken-Walshs-Washington/2012/12/20/setting-clear-priorities-will-be-key-for-obama~~ Ideology doesn’t outweigh – presidential success dictates votesLebo, 2010 (Matthew J. Lebo, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, and Andrew O’Geen, PhD Candidate, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, Journal of Politics, "The President’s Role in the Partisan Congressional Arena" forthcoming, google) Keeping this centrality in mind, we use established theories of congressional parties to model DICKENSON DOESN’T ASSUME POLITICALLY UNPOPULAR BILLS – THAT’S CROSS EXHIRSH DEBATE –1. Link outweighs - regardless of general theory, the plan is unpopular—Hirsh concedes that controversial issues have an effect on a president’s ability to push a bill.Michael Hirsh, National Journal, 2/7/13, There’s No Such Thing as Political Capital, www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207 Presidents are limited in what they can do by time and attention span, of 2. Even if winner’s win is true, we win on timeframe – Health Care proves that even if Obama gets more momentum, it takes a long time to build up.3. Hirsh doesn’t outline a threshold to winning – there’s no way they can prove that the plan would be perceived as enough of a win to trigger the bandwagon effect.HIRSH IS ABOUT CIR NOT DEBT CEILING – THAT’S CROSS EX.4. Hirsh assumes that political capital has to be quantifiable in order to be spent. Other factors, like mandate rhetoric, have empirically worked – Reagan and Eisenhower prove.5. Winner’s win doesn’t make sense – if it was true, than presidents would never lose. That’s never happened.6. Empirics disprove winners winRyan 9 Professor of Social Science at the Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies, University of West Indies. Ph.D. in Political Science from Cornell ~Selwyn, 1/18. http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_opinion?id=161426968~~ Like many, I expect much from Obama, who for the time being, | 9/28/13 |
2NCTournament: Jack Howe Invitational - CSU Long Beach | Round: 1 | Opponent: Loyola MN | Judge: GradualismULifting the embargo is inevitable – its only a question of whether or not it occurs before Chinese influence is solidified in the region – Diaz Canel’s election in 2018 will cause democratic reform which is the condition upon which we sanction CubaDallas Morning News, 13 - editorial ("Editorial: U.S. should reconsider embargo when Castros’ reign ends", 2/28/13, http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130228-editorial-u.s.-should-reconsider-embargo-when-castros-reign-ends.ece)//TL-http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130228-editorial-u.s.-should-reconsider-embargo-when-castros-reign-ends.ece)//TL For years, the accepted view was that the end of the Castro regime in Cuba would be volatile, perhaps even explosive. US will lift the embargo when Diaz-Canel is the leader – current policy limits the embargo to CastroEstes, 13 – attended Harvard College where he was an editor at the Harvard Crimson and president of Current Magazine (Adam Clark, "Can You Imagine Cuba Without a Castro?", The Atlantic Wire, 2/24/13, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2013/02/can-you-imagine-cuba-without-castro/62461/)//EX-http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2013/02/can-you-imagine-cuba-without-castro/62461/)/EX Raul Castro announced in a speech on Sunday that he plans to step down as Diaz-Canel helping advance reforms in squo- will continueChazan 13 - former news producer and editor (Jackie, examiner.com,"Cuba soon to have a president not named Castro", Feb 26, 2013, http://www.examiner.com/article/cuba-soon-to-have-a-president-not-named-castro) This is a major change in Cuba, not just generational," said Arturo Lopez Under Diaz-Canel Cuba will forge a new and beneficial relationship with USGott 13 - writer and historian, Latin America correspondent, (Richard, The Guardian, DAWN.com, "A post-Castro Cuba", 2/27/13, http://beta.dawn.com/news/788938/a-post-castro-cuba-http://beta.dawn.com/news/788938/a-post-castro-cuba)//EK In this context it is now the US that is the odd man out. Indeed the most intriguing question now concerns Cuba’s future relationship with the US. Many people have expressed the hope that Obama, with no re-election problem to worry about, might feel emboldened to make conciliatory noises towards the existing Castro government. The road to a new friendship remains a possibility, yet one of the stumbling Diaz-Canel on board with reformsRajo 13 - Reporter Telemundo 52 Opinion Editor; Political Reporter (Carlos, NBCNews.com, "Analysis: Castro brothers’ successor may inherit a very different Cuba", 3/2/13, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/02/17133513-analysis-castro-brothers-successor-may-inherit-a-very-different-cuba?lite-http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/02/17133513-analysis-castro-brothers-successor-may-inherit-a-very-different-cuba?lite)//EK These reforms already are changing the face of Cuban socialism. Castro has introduced private Diaz- Canel will reform when needed to modernize governmentFrank 13 –freelance journalist for Reuters, Financial Times, ABC News (Marc, Reuters, "Analysis: Castro successor lacks charisma but is experienced manager", Feb 25, 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/us-cuba-castro-diaz-canel-idUSBRE91P00W20130226)//EK-http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/us-cuba-castro-diaz-canel-idUSBRE91P00W20130226)/EK "Diaz-Canel, while a loyalist of the old style, is young Diaz-Canel will continue economic liberation- already played key role in FDIs for Cuban hotelsGeorge 13 – writer for Se Mancha (Samuel, Se Mancha, "Cuba in Transition, United States Stuck in Yesterday", March 3, 2013, http://semancha.com/2013/03/03/cuba-in-transition-united-states-stuck-in-yesterday/-http://semancha.com/2013/03/03/cuba-in-transition-united-states-stuck-in-yesterday/)//EK Fidel Castro, who removed himself from power in 2008 due to ill health, Diaz-Canel will reform CubaHaven, 13 – the Associated Press bureau chief in Madrid (Paul, "Miguel Diaz-Canel, First Vice President Of Cuba’s Communist Party, Rose Gradually To Castro’s No. 2", Huffington Post, 2/25/13, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/25/miguel-diaz-canel-cuba-first-vice-president_n_2758824.html)//EX-http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/25/miguel-diaz-canel-cuba-first-vice-president_n_2758824.html)/EX HAVANA — Miguel Diaz-Canel has five years to get started and a lot Diaz-Canel will reform Cuba – small-scale reforms have happened and Canel will support them on a bigger scaleRajo, 13 – Policy Analyst at Telemundo (Carlos, "Analysis: Castro brothers’ successor may inherit a very different Cuba", NBC News, 3/2/13, http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/02/17133513-analysis-castro-brothers-successor-may-inherit-a-very-different-cuba?lite)//EX-http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/03/02/17133513-analysis-castro-brothers-successor-may-inherit-a-very-different-cuba?lite)//EX Raul Castro’s recent announcement that he will leave power in 2018, and his appointment of 52-year-old Miguel Diaz-Canel as first vice president and his de facto successor, are signs of the glacial pace of political change in Cuba. All Signs point to Diaz-Canel’s as next in secessionMiroff 13 - correspondent for The Washington Post the Caribbean, senior correspondent for GlobalPost, contributor to National Public Radio. (Nick, Official On Deck To Succeed Castros Still A Question Mark To Many Cubans, NPR, 4-03-2013, http://www.npr.org/2013/04/03/176023531/official-on-deck-to-succeed-castros-still-a-question-mark-to-many-cubans)//BDS Within 10 days of Miguel Diaz-Canel’s big promotion to vice president of Cuba Reform under Diaz-Canel is LikelyGeorge 13 - Project Manager with the Bertelsmann Foundation, a European think tank, developing a Latin America project portfolio for the new Global Economic Dynamics project based in D.C. and Germany (Samuel George, Cuba in Transition, United States Stuck in Yesterday, No Se Mancha, 3-3-2013, http://semancha.com/2013/03/03/cuba-in-transition-united-states-stuck-in-yesterday/)//BDS The United States’ embargo against Cuba is like the war on drugs – everyone in ImpactA democratic uprising will collapse Cuba and the military will crush itIglesias, 12 – Commander, US Navy. Paper submitted for the Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the the US Army War College (Carlos, "United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA560408-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA560408) GOC = Government of Cuba, FAR = Cuban military 3) Democratic Uprising – A democratic uprising on the island presents a confounding paradox. While it would result in optimal strategic outcomes for the island and the U.S. in the long-term, it also poses the most significant near-term risk to the Cuban people and U.S. national interests. The regime fears fast economic opening as destroying its controlColomer 2005- Research Professor in Political Science, Professor at the University of Barcelona For the same reason, the worst possible outcome for Cuba would be the one That will cause a crackdown and civil warIglesias, 12 – Commander, US Navy. Paper submitted for the Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the the US Army War College (Carlos, "United States Security Policy Implications of a Post-Fidel Cuba" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA560408-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA560408) GOC = Government of Cuba, FAR = Cuban military 3) Democratic Uprising – A democratic uprising on the island presents a confounding paradox. While it would result in optimal strategic outcomes for the island and the U.S. in the long-term, it also poses the most significant near-term risk to the Cuban people and U.S. national interests. Reforms are slow now but going fast may allow for mistakes that cause instabilityLaverty, 11 – Cuba consultant at the Center for Democracy in the Americas and majored in Political Science, graduating with honors from the College of Charleston, Master’s degree at the Institute for International Policy Solutions Journal, and founded Cuba Education Travel (Collin, "Cuba’s New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for U.S. Policy", Center for Democracy in the Americas, 2011, p. 26-29, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve.pdf)//EX The 6th Party Congress began on Saturday April 16th, and coincided with celebrations commemorating Fast Reforms cause civil warsPerez 10 – JD, Yale Law (David, "America’s Cuba Policy: The Way Forward: A Policy Recommendation for the U.S. State Department" 13 Harv. Latino L. Rev. 187, Spring, lexis)EX Policymakers in Washington must realize that Cubans will not wake up the day after Fidel Fast Reforms cause instability and Diaz-Canel will follow Castro teachingsSuchlicki, 13 – director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami (Jaime, "Raúl Castro’s Cuba in 2013", Miami Herald, 1/14/13, http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/14/3178528/raul-castros-cuba-in-2013.html)//EX-http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/14/3178528/raul-castros-cuba-in-2013.html)//EX After six years in power, Gen. Raúl Castro is unwilling to chart a Fast Reforms would cause instability and Diaz-Canel won’t reform eitherSuchlicki, 13 – is the Emilio Bacardi Moreau Distinguished Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami (Jaime, "Why Cuba Will Still Be Anti-American After Castro", The Atlantic, 3/5/13, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/why-cuba-will-still-be-anti-american-after-castro/273680/)//EX In the meantime, Raul Castro will still rule with an iron fist. Some Turns CaseCuban collapse turns every 1ac internal linkGorrell, 5 - Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted for the USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT (Tim, "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074 Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s Cuban collapse causes a flood of refugees – on a already stressed systemSanders, 10 – writer for the Washington Times (Sol, "A Cuban time bomb?", September 19, 2010, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/sep/19/a-cuban-time-bomb/)//eek Remembering how suddenly other seemingly iron-clad communist regimes fell, the possibility of 2nc – gradualism solves the caseHelms-Burton means US will recognize Cuban government when Diaz-Canel is in powerMoscow News, 13 – ("Washington and Miami dream of regime change in Cuba", the Moscow news, 1/3/13, http://themoscownews.com/international/20130311/191323361.html)//EX-http://themoscownews.com/international/20130311/191323361.html)//EX In order to effect a gradual and well-planned generational transition without letting it Terms of Helms-Burton mean US will build relations after Castro in 2018Gott, 13 – honorary research fellow at the institute for the study of the Americas at the University of London (Richard, "A post-Castro Cuba", DAWN, 2/27/13, http://beta.dawn.com/news/788938/a-post-castro-cuba)//EX-http://beta.dawn.com/news/788938/a-post-castro-cuba)//EX US will lift the embargo when Diaz-Canel is the leader – current policy limits the embargo to CastroEstes, 13 – attended Harvard College where he was an editor at the Harvard Crimson and president of Current Magazine (Adam Clark, "Can You Imagine Cuba Without a Castro?", The Atlantic Wire, 2/24/13, http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2013/02/can-you-imagine-cuba-without-castro/62461/)//EX-http://www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2013/02/can-you-imagine-cuba-without-castro/62461/)/EX Raul Castro announced in a speech on Sunday that he plans to step down as Diaz-Canel solves the aff – he’s a pragmatic reformer and creates space to lift the embargo in 2018Dallas Morning News, 13 - editorial ("Editorial: U.S. should reconsider embargo when Castros’ reign ends", 2/28/13, http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130228-editorial-u.s.-should-reconsider-embargo-when-castros-reign-ends.ece)//TL-http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/20130228-editorial-u.s.-should-reconsider-embargo-when-castros-reign-ends.ece)//TL For years, the accepted view was that the end of the Castro regime in Diaz-Canel will substantially boost relationsGott 13 - writer and historian, Latin America correspondent, (Richard, The Guardian, DAWN.com, "A post-Castro Cuba", 2/27/13, http://beta.dawn.com/news/788938/a-post-castro-cuba-http://beta.dawn.com/news/788938/a-post-castro-cuba)//EK In this context it is now the US that is the odd man out. Indeed the most intriguing question now concerns Cuba’s future relationship with the US. Many people have expressed the hope that Obama, with no re-election problem to worry about, might feel emboldened to make conciliatory noises towards the existing Castro government. The Castro brothers are the main barrier to U.S. Cuban relations – their deaths will change US policyFarnsworth 12 – Vice president of the Council of the Americas and Americas Society (Eric,"Top 10 Policy Drivers for U.S.-Latin American Relations in 2013", Americas Society Council of the Americas, November 05, 2012, Assuming that the world does not end, according to the Mayan calendar in December, 2013 will be an important year south of the U.S. border. There are a number of issues to watch in determining the hemisphere’s direction, although most depend less on the Nov. 6 election results and more on factors that are out of White House control. Savvy observers of the region will watch the 10 "C’s" as the real policy drivers. Instability TurnThe plan overwhelms Cuban internal stability—multiple links—a) Anti-Cuban Organizations—massive influx of American capital into the Cuban economy pre-reform process empowers anti-Cuban political organizations. This causes a counterbalance of power within the Cuban political system—hardliners will adopt a conservative approach and utilize their position to cause massive rapid institutional reforms shifting away from status squo gradual policies, that’s Hernandez.b) Raul de-legitimization—his closeness to Fidel’s anti-American policies determines Raul’s political legitimacy with Cuban elites and the public—they’ll push for rapid reform which leads to instabilitySuchlicki, 2012 (Jaime, professor and director, Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami, "Ignore Raúl Castro’s siren song" http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/01/3025115/ignore-raul-castros-siren-song.html-http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/01/3025115/ignore-raul-castros-siren-song.html) c) Fear and speculation—Cubans base their economic reforms off of the consequences of the U.S.S.R.—fear of economic collapse will cause actions to spin out of controlLaverty and Stephens, 2011 (Collin, Center for Democracy in the Americas; Sarah, Executive director of the Center "Cuba’s New Resolve Econmoic Reform and Its Implications for U.S. Policy" http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve.pdf-http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve.pdf) d) Communication and people—Plan allows for larger access to media and revolutionist ideals—loosens Raul’s control.Pascaul, 2010 (Carlos, US Ambassador to Mexico, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy @ the Brookings Institute "Learning to Salsa New Steps in U.S.-Cuba Relations" http://www.brookings.edu/research/books/2010/learningtosalsa-http://www.brookings.edu/research/books/2010/learningtosalsa) ====That increase in communication and access makes status squo opposition movements effective —- achieves Cuban Instability==== EU CPThe CP would have the EU lift it’s restrictions against Cuba and engage—that solves the AFF.Solves EconomyEU is uniquely key to integrate LA economies and give them access to foreign markets—they’ve got the right mindset and the right companies to do so, that’s Perales.Solves ChinaWe solve the impact to relations – the EU is an ally of the US and can hedge against Chinese influence.Fredo Arias-King, 6-20-2008, founder of the academic quarterly Demokratizatsiaya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, published since 1992 in Washington, DC, an analyst with two regional think tanks: CEON (Miami) and CADAL (Buenos Aires), author of the book Transiciones: La experiencia de Europa del Este, "Latin America and European ’Soft Power’ Geopolitics," http://www.cadal.org/documents/documento_86_english.pdf-http://www.cadal.org/documents/documento_86_english.pdf While some view the EU as a counterweight to the United States, more enlightened The reason China’s growing is because Europe’s failing to act – CP’s new engagement reverses this trend.Astrid Prange De Oliveira, 1-26-2013, ~Qualifications needed~, "Europe Losing Out to Chinese Conquista," http://www.dw.de/europe-losing-out-to-chinese-conquista/a-16551832 China’s growing economic presence in Latin America comes at Europe’s expense. European leaders are European engagement threatens Chinese influence by presenting alternative markets to Latin America.Susanne Gratius, 2-xx-2013, a senior researcher at FRIDE, a European think tank for global action, which provides innovative thinking and rigorous analysis of key debates in international relations, "Europe and Latin America: In Need of a New Paradigm," http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?fecvnodeid=11063326groupot593=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c706023326dom=126fecvid=3326ots591=0c54e3b3-1e9c-be1e-2c24-a6a8c706023326lng=en26v33=11063326id=160985 The EU’s added value versus China and the US. The orientation of both the Solves StabilityNow is the time for the EU to engage in Latin America – Latin America needs investment—solves stabilitySerres ’13 ~February 18, 2013. Charlotte Serres is VIE Public Affairs at AXA Seguros México and Reporter at Pulsamerica. "LATIN AMERICA AND EUROPE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR GREATER INTER-REGIONALISM" Pulsamerica. http://www.pulsamerica.co.uk/2013/02/18/latin-america-and-europe-opportunities-and-challenges-for-greater-inter-regionalism/-http://www.pulsamerica.co.uk/2013/02/18/latin-america-and-europe-opportunities-and-challenges-for-greater-inter-regionalism/**~~ Solves the AFFEU engagement with Cuba stimulates action for US anti-embargo policy.NOTE: fil-lip /?fil?p/ – something that acts as a stimulus or boost to an activity AT: P-DBPerm links to politics and appeasement—it has USFG action—CP doesn’t.US engagement empirically pushes out other attempts to engage Latin America – EU defers to American might.Andreas Feldmann, xx-xx-2006, Associate Professor of the Institute of Political Science at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, "The Interest of the European Union in Security Issues in Latin America in the 21 st Century," http://www.capital-social.net/moodle/images/Sudamerica_Gefahren.pdf~~23page=67-http://www.capital-social.net/moodle/images/Sudamerica_Gefahren.pdf The United States has historically played a prominent role in the Western Hemisphere. Soon AT: HegTurn—burden sharing, the US can’t police the world, letting the EU take Latin America preserves the US’s ability to project powerSven Biscop, 2-xx-2010, Director of the Security 26 Global Governance Programme at Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels, and Visiting Professor at the College of Europe (Bruges) and at Ghent University, "Of Greeks and Romans: The EU, US and Security Strategy in a Multipolar World," http://www.fride.org/uploads/PB35_US_Multipolar_ENG_feb10.pdf An EU-LAC relationship locks in global stabilityChristian Rieck, 10-25-2007, project assistant at Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAF), was a Carlo Schmid Fellow at the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) in Mexico City, studied law and economics in Bayreuth (Germany), Seville (Spain) and at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, "A Security Partnership with Mercosur," http://www.worldsecuritynetwork.com/Latin-America/christian-rieck-1/A-Security-Partnership-with-Mercosur And we don’t link—EU would become the new hegemon—US might lose influence but the world wouldn’t go into multipolarity.Soft PowerReforming EU engagement strategy to Cuba rejuvenates EU soft power and spurs Cuban democratization—-must be independent of US policyVassiliki Tzivelis, 3-xx-2006, a student at the College of Europe, Brussels campus, working toward a Masters Degree in European Studies in the Political and Administartion studies department, "The European Union’s Foreign Policy Towards Cuba: It Is Time to Tie the Knot," http://www6.miami.edu/eucenter/Tzivelisfinal.pdf EU soft power solves multiple great power wars and warming EXT: Soft PowerThe EU is perceived as a puppet of the US—only the CP alone that has the EU engage without the US restores their worldwide credibility—reversing the Common Position solves that bc it’s seen as the manifestation of US control over the EU, that’s Arias-King.That solves great power wars, warming, and China through EU cooperation, leverage, and leadership, that’s Hugg—means the CP solves the case.EU engagement with Latin America increases soft power and solves case.Fredo Arias-King, 6-20-2008, founder of the academic quarterly Demokratizatsiaya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, published since 1992 in Washington, DC, an analyst with two regional think tanks: CEON (Miami) and CADAL (Buenos Aires), author of the book Transiciones: La experiencia de Europa del Este, "Latin America and European ’Soft Power’ Geopolitics," http://www.cadal.org/documents/documento_86_english.pdf-http://www.cadal.org/documents/documento_86_english.pdf Latin America is the key site for spread and growth of European soft power – solves the impact to relations by engaging through a Western nation.Fredo Arias-King, 6-20-2008, founder of the academic quarterly Demokratizatsiaya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, published since 1992 in Washington, DC, an analyst with two regional think tanks: CEON (Miami) and CADAL (Buenos Aires), author of the book Transiciones: La experiencia de Europa del Este, "Latin America and European ’Soft Power’ Geopolitics," http://www.cadal.org/documents/documento_86_english.pdf-http://www.cadal.org/documents/documento_86_english.pdf LeadershipExtend 1NC ~231Can’t solve China Crowd out—no reason engagement in Cuba takes China out of other countries in Latin America like Venezuela or Bolivia—means competition and escalation are inevitable.Extend 1NC ~232+3Chinese influence in LA isn’t a threat to US security or hegemony—China isn’t there for combat and doesn’t want to oust the US, that’s Marcella—especially true when they’re reading ev that China only cares about resources. At worst economic interdependence would check US-China war—they would have too much to lose.====China not a threat to US hegemony in Latin America- cultural and economic ties between Latin America and the US ==== ====China isn’t a threat to the US’ position in Latin America- geographic and cultural challenges, Chinese economic intentions==== ====China not a threat to the US in Latin America- trade and direct investment unchallenged==== If U.S. influence wanes in Latin America, it will be because of regional integration not great power competitionValencia, 7/10 ~Robert, Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs and contributing writer for Global Voices, "US and China: The Fight for Latin America", http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en26id=166209, Accessed July 11~ China TurnExtend our China turn—they’re not answering the warrants here—our argument is that when they push China out of LA it helps US leverage in the TPP bc we’re perceived as stronger to the other LA countries who are willing to work with us in the TPP—that’s key to an effective Asia pivot bc only through TPP trade negotiations can we garner support and establish ties for the pivot. That collapses relations and creates multiple scenarios for miscalculated nuclear conflict over Taiwan, sovereignty disputes, and war in the SCS, that’s Gross.That outweighs—a.) Escalation—intentional conflicts can be talked down or mediated, not true of accidents, miscalc can happen at any time making it impossible to plan for it—prevents mitigation.b.) Probability—East Asia is a powder keg—multiple warrantsTellis 4 (Ashley, is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues.Assessing America’s War on Terror: Confronting Insurgency, Cementing Primacy Especially true of the SCS Extend 1NC ~236+7China’s engaging Cuba now and helping them with their infrastructure—as long as China stays that solves their economy~—if the AFF forces China out it turns the case and collapses the Cuban economy~.Additional spending on infrastructure is neededWB 05 (The World Bank, Latin America: A Need to Boost Spending on Infrastructure" http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0contentMDK:20632565~pagePK:64257043~piPK:437376~theSitePK:4607,00.html 8-31-05) Chinese investment in infrastructure is keyBBC 12 (BBC, "China proposes 2410bn loan for Latin America countries" http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18605450 6-26-12) U.S. infrastructure investment isn’t enoughUSAID 13 (United States Agency for International Development, "INFRASTRUCTURE" http://www.usaid.gov/what-we-do/economic-growth-and-trade/infrastructure 4-17-13) U.S. investment can’t match China’sGallagher 13 (Kevin Gallagher, associate professor of international relations at Boston University, where he coordinates the Global Development Policy Program, "Time for a U.S. Pivot to Latin America" http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?storyid=10035 6-18-13) Infrastructure is key to Latin American economic growthCalderón and Servén 10 (César Calderón, Senior Economist at the Regional Chief Economist Office for Latin America and the Caribbean Region at the World Bank and Luis Servén, Research Manager for Macroeconomics and Growth in the Development Research Group, "Infrastructure in Latin America" https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/3801/WPS5317.pdf?sequence=1 May 2010) TradeExtend 1NC ~231CA Inf Turn on China—China solves the economy and they’re there now—they’re providing Cuba with infrastructure and money—the plan would push them out, that’s SeamanExtend 1NC ~232There’s no chance of a terror attack—it’s too difficult to prepare and implement—terrorists are unprepared and unsophisticated—they wouldn’t even be able to pull off a conventional attack let alone a nuclear one, that’s Mueller and Stewart. And they aren’t even pursuing nuclear weapons—they know it would be too difficult, ~that’s/and~Terrorists aren’t pursuing nuclear attacksWolfe 12 – Alan Wolfe is Professor of Political Science at Boston College. He is also a Senior Fellow with the World Policy Institute at the New School University in New York. A contributing editor of The New Republic, The Wilson Quarterly, Commonwealth Magazine, and In Character, Professor Wolfe writes often for those publications as well as for Commonweal, The New York Times, Harper’s, The Atlantic Monthly, The Washington Post, and other magazines and newspapers. March 27, 2012, "Fixated by "Nuclear Terror" or Just Paranoia?" http://www.hlswatch.com/2012/03/27/fixated-by-"nuclear-terror"-or-just-paranoia-2/-http://www.hlswatch.com/2012/03/27/fixated-by- Extend 1NC ~236+7Economic decline doesn’t lead to war—strict analysis of history proves us right—economic decline doesn’t increase the probability of a war, that’s Drezner.No Uniqueness-Latin American economies are strong now- neither side needs each other to prevent collapse – means economic collapse won’t occur – not reciprocalNo collapse – external sources of stabilityMorris 11 (Emily Morris, Research Associate and Lecturer in Economic Development of Latin America and the Caribbean, "FORECASTING¶ CUBA’SECONOMY" http://www.cubaproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/CubaForecastingWEB.pdf 4-2-11) And—no reason they solve the economy—their Hakim ev just says an economic collapse would hurt relations not the reverse.Extend 1NC ~234+5It’s really hard to engineer a biological weapon on the scale of the AFF—evolution has had billions of years to work on it and it hasn’t been successful, that’s Dove. Furthermore, terrorists wouldn’t have the resources to do it even if it was possible—it would require large, well-stocked laboratories, access to particular safely guarded strains, and well-trained scientists, that’s O’neil.At worst the impact is inevitable—their Bryan card is from 2001 and says that there a bunch of other Latin American nations that are unstable- the plan can’t solve for those nations so terrorists will just use them. | 9/28/13 |
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