Tournament: jenks | Round: 3 | Opponent: union | Judge: denzlow
Inherency
1.) Venezuela has high potential for alternative energy, but is not making any advancements in the technology
Gustavo Coronel, July 29, 2013
Gustavo Coronel has led a distinguished career, from field geologist to founding member of the Board of Directors for Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), 1976-1979. He has more than thirty- five years of
experience in the international petroleum industry and has held leadership positions in industry, state
government, academia, and journalism
Because of the abundance of hydrocarbons and hydroelectricity, alternative sources of renewable energy have not been developed in Venezuela, in spite of the existence of a high potential for the generation of energy from wind, solar and biomass. The Venezuelan government has been talking of doing this for several years but no significant concrete action has been taken. For example, in 2009 the Minister of Energy and Petroleum spoke of eight great renewable energy projects being considered, four of them from biofuels and the other four related to wind energy. One of the ministry’s directors, Vicente Duran, spoke at the time of a plan to “… convert Venezuela into a world class energy power, by prioritizing renewable energy”. The projects, he specified, included four wind farms in the states of Sucre, Falcon, Nueva Esparta and Zulia, specifically in the Guajira Peninsula (adjacent to Colombia). He also announced the installation of 806 photovoltaic systems throughout the country. In addition, he mentioned that “… a geothermal plant was being evaluated for construction in the State of Sucre”. Four years later biofuels have not been produced and only one of the wind projects has been partially completed in the Guajira peninsula, so far generating a very modest 500 kilowatts (KW).
Other publications carry high estimates of the potential of renewable energy in Venezuela but also express pessimism about the will of the government to carry out their development. For example, a report estimates the energy generating potential in Venezuela at anywhere between 1,600-10,000 MW. This report adds that such estimates seem over optimistic, not because the potential is not there but because the government does not follow through on its promises
Thus, the plan: The USFG should substantially increase its economic engagement towards Venezuela in the form of alternative energy technology.
Advantage 1 is warming
1.) Warming is real and anthropagenic
Renewable Energy World September 27, 2013
RenewableEnergyWorld.com was started in 1998 by a group of Renewable Energy professionals who wanted their work to relate to their passion for renewable energy. With this passion and the desire to create a long term sustainable business, we have created perhaps the single most recognized and trusted source for Renewable Energy News and Information on the Internet.
Geneva, Switzerland -- A new report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that human impact on the climate system is clear and evident in most regions of the globe.
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century, the analysis states, adding that the evidence for this warming is unequivocal.
“Observations of changes in the climate system are based on multiple lines of independent evidence. Our assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amount of snow and ice has diminished, the global mean sea level has risen and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased,” said Qin Dahe, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I, which developed the report titled Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis.
Thomas Stocker, the other Co-Chair, added: "Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions."
Stocker concluded: “As a result of our past, present and expected future emissions of CO2, we are committed to climate change, and effects will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 stop.”
The assessment comprises some 2,500 pages of text and draws on millions of observations and over 2 million gigabytes of numerical data from climate model simulations. Over 9,200 scientific publications are cited, more than three quarters of which have been published since the last IPCC assessment in 2007.
According to the IPCC, global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is projected to be likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 in all but the lowest scenario considered, and likely to exceed 2°C for the two high scenarios.
“There are few surprises in this report but the increase in the confidence around many observations just validates what we are seeing happening around us. Since the IPCC issued its last big report in 2007, terrestrial glacier loss and sea-level rise has dramatically accelerated; the Arctic summer sea ice losses are higher than originally projected and the last decade was the warmest since 1850,” concluded Samantha Smith, leader of WWF’s Global Climate and Energy Initiative.
Indeed, in response to the report, six of the world’s largest environmental and development non-government organisations have made a unified call to governments to act on the findings and introduce strong climate pollution controls.
“We already know that the energy sector is the main culprit – but also the main solution – for global climate change. We already know that a large source of climate-changing pollution comes from burning fossil fuels. Extraction of fossil fuels is also increasingly a driver for the displacement of people, local pollution, and the direct loss of biodiversity.
“At the same time, renewable energy provides a straightforward, proven and increasingly affordable solution (with far fewer direct impacts) that can also bring energy access to the 1.2 billion people currently without. If we are to follow what the science says, then we have to stop investing in fossil fuels and increase investment in sustainable renewable energy,” a joint statement reads from groups including WWF, Friends of the Earth, Oxfam and Greenpeace. Stephanie Tunmore, Senior Climate and Energy Campaigner, Greenpeace International, said: “What the IPCC has set out are projections not prophecies. Alongside the warnings of unimaginable levels of warming and the chaos that would follow, the report shows us the potential pathway to a very different tomorrow. We can still limit global warming by ramping up renewable energy and making faster and deeper emissions cuts but the longer we wait the more the prospects diminish and the costs increase. A bleak and hopeless future is not a foregone conclusion, it’s a choice.”
Commenting, Carmen Becerril, Chief International Officer at Acciona, said: “This warning from the science must provide a trigger for action. A comprehensive, effective and ambitious global response must be agreed at the UN climate change meeting in Paris in 2015, which means we need to start working now to greatly enhance global cooperation and build the foundations for a workable deal and investment in low carbon solutions.”
Meanwhile, Maf Smith, Deputy Chief Executive of RenewableUK, said: “The scientific community is sending a clear and unequivocal message to policymakers that urgent action is needed to reduce our carbon emissions and set in place paths to create a future of clean, carbon reducing sources of energy if we are to reduce our negative impacts on our environment.”
2.) Global warming is killing animal species right now and the killing of species leads to a loss in biodiversity
Associated Press 11/21/2006
The Associated Press (AP) is an American multinational non-profit news agency headquartered in New York City. The AP is a non-profit cooperative owned by its contributing newspapers, radio and television stations in the United States, all of which contribute stories to the AP and use material written by its staff journalists. The AP staff is represented by the Newspaper Guild union, which operates under the Communication Workers union, which operates under the AFL-CIO. Many newspapers and broadcasters outside the United States are AP subscribers, paying a fee to use AP material without being contributing members of the cooperative.
Animal and plant species have begun dying off or changing sooner than predicted because of global warming, a review of hundreds of research studies contends.
These fast-moving adaptations come as a surprise even to biologists and ecologists because they are occurring so rapidly.
At least 70 species of frogs, mostly mountain-dwellers that had nowhere to go to escape the creeping heat, have gone extinct because of climate change, the analysis says. It also reports that between 100 and 200 other cold-dependent animal species, such as penguins and polar bears are in deep trouble.
“We are finally seeing species going extinct,” said University of Texas biologist Camille Parmesan, author of the study. “Now we’ve got the evidence. It’s here. It’s real. This is not just biologists’ intuition. It’s what’s happening.”
Her review of 866 scientific studies is summed up in the journal Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics.
Parmesan reports seeing trends of animal populations moving northward if they can, of species adapting slightly because of climate change, of plants blooming earlier, and of an increase in pests and parasites.
3.) Global warming is also killing humans right now
Paul R. Epstein M.D., M.P.H, 2006
Paul R. Epstein M.D., M.P.H a physician and associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, started his medical career working in low-income communities, from East Cambridge to the east coast of Africa. After spending 1978 through 1980 in Mozambique with his wife, Andy, a nurse, he enrolled in a master's program in tropical public health at Harvard. Soon he was making critical connections between the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases and climate change.
A WHO report in 2000 found that warming had caused malaria to spread from three districts in western Kenya to 13 and led to epidemics of the disease in Rwanda and Tanzania. In Sweden, cases of tick-borne encephalitis have risen in direct correlation to warmer winters. Asian tiger mosquitoes, the type that carry dengue fever, have been reported recently as far north as the Netherlands.
As the seas warm, other breeders thrive. Cholera, a waterborne disease, emerged in South America in 1991 for the first time in the 20th century. Abetted by poverty and poor public health, it swept from Peru across the continent and into Mexico, killing more than 10,000 people.
Diseases are also expanding in a surprisingly complex dance with their environment, taking advantage of the swings from deluge to drought made more frequent by global warming, Epstein said.
A common house mosquito, called the Culex pipiens , for example, unexpectedly thrives in drought. It lives in drainpipes and sewer puddles. During long dry spells, the stagnant pools teem with protein and attract thirsty birds on which mosquitoes feed. Meanwhile, droughts reduce the populations of dragonflies, lacewings and frogs that eat the mosquitoes.
The Culex pipiens is a favored carrier of a disease first identified in a feverish woman in the West Nile district of Uganda in 1937. The disease was found again in Israel in the 1950s, and in Romania in 1996. Each outbreak followed an unusual dry, hot spell, typical of adverse weather becoming more frequent as a result of climate change, concluded researchers at the University of Haifa in Israel.
In 1999, the virus landed in New York, probably at LaGuardia Airport. Disease sleuths speculate that it was lurking in a mosquito stowaway on a plane, or in the bloodstream of someone already infected. That summer also brought unusually hot, arid weather to New York, perfect for the Culex pipiens.
Before the year was over, 62 people had been infected and seven had died, the first of them elderly. The next two years were more temperate, but when another hot, dry summer hit in 2002, the disease exploded across the United States and into Canada.
Susan Harrison, then 45, prepared a Labor Day barbecue that year with her husband and two daughters on the deck of their small house in Toronto. She was bitten by a mosquito, but shrugged it off.
In a few days, she felt a shooting pain in her legs. Within two weeks, she could not get out of bed. Her husband, Phil, rushed her to the hospital, where she was put on a respirator and spent three months in intensive care. She now maneuvers around her narrow house in a wheelchair, her legs and right arm paralyzed by West Nile virus.
Tears welled in her eyes as he spoke of her daughters, Allison, 10, and Tara, 13. "I used to do things with them, take them places," she said. Her husband, a waiter, struggles to fill the role of two parents.
West Nile virus killed 304 people in North America in 2002 and 276 the next year. The toll dropped to about 100 in 2004, probably because of cooler weather and mosquito-control measures.
West Nile has killed 22 people in Maryland, Virginia and the District since 2001.
Despite the recent drop in the death toll, birds and horses in hot western regions are still being devastated, and the disease has likely not finished with humans.
"West Nile virus hasn't gone away. People still need to be aware that it's there," said Edward B. Hayes, a medical epidemiologist with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Fort Collins, Colo. "Whether we have large-scale epidemics is anyone's guess."
Climate change already is claiming more than 150,000 lives each year, with causes ranging from heat waves to respiratory illness, WHO concluded last year.
Some scientists see global warming as a natural cycle that will soon reverse itself, but for many governments, the handwriting is increasingly clear. Britain's environment minister warned last year that malaria might reach that country. South Africa's environmental affairs minister said last year that the country could face a fourfold increase in malaria by 2020. The Canadian government now attributes the boost in West Nile virus to climate change, and last year warned that the country might eventually experience dengue fever, yellow fever and malaria.
"One of the problems we have in North America is coming to grips with the fact that epidemics are still a problem," said Elliott, the lawyer. "Canadians, prior to West Nile virus, just considered mosquitoes to be annoying. We had never thought of mosquitoes as being disease carriers."
4.) Loss of biodiversity leads to extinction
Kira Johnson, masters in conservation biology, 12-1-2010, “The Sixth Great Extinction,” National Geographic, http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2012/03/28/the-sixth-great-extinction-a-silent-extermination/, TF
Countless species have gone extinct throughout history, and as many as 100,000 species will become extinct this year (Wilson 2000). Since most people probably cannot name a single recently extinct species, does it really matter to the human race whether we save biodiversity or let much of it disappear into the history books? The answer is a very strong and profound Yes. By not recognizing the importance of biodiversity, in addition to assuring the demise of most other species, we may be assuring the demise of our own human species as well. We need biodiversity. By choosing to act in ways that negatively impact species globally, we are laying the foundation of our own extinction. All species are connected, and the loss of one creates a domino effect of negative impacts to interdependent species. Evidence of this lies in Yellowstone, where the removal of the wolf, a keystone predator, resulted in a trophic cascade of negative effects throughout the ecosystem. Trophic cascade refers to the effect that the change in population size of a top predator has on the food web, especially impacting the species on which it depends for food or shelter. Predators play an important role in ecosystems – when they are eliminated, the species they preyed on have fewer animals controlling their population numbers, which allows their populations to grow. Wolves were exterminated from the western United States by the mid-1930s. In the following decades, scientists found that without a predator, deer, elk and moose ceased their normal migration patterns and began spending large amounts of time consuming the abundant vegetation in and around rivers and streams. The reduction of trees and other woody vegetation in these areas led to a drastic decline of beavers in the area, which in turn changed the flow of the rivers (Wolf Wars). Which species' extinction might start the succession of events that causes our extinction?...Our survival as a species ultimately rests on biodiversity. Each species plays a role in the global ecosystem, and we may not know until it is too late whether a given species was vital to our existence, but we can safely assume that we won't survive without a diversity of other species. Biodiversity creates and cleans our air and water. The Amazon rainforest is estimated to produce 20 to 25 percent of the planet's oxygen and 25 percent of our freshwater, as well as countless plants that may be cures for disease (Cox 2008, Butler 2010, Wilson 2010). Yet the rainforest is being destroyed at an alarming rate. Since 1970, 232,000 square miles of Amazon rainforest have been lost, equaling a land area twice the size of Greece. The latest available statistics showed an 11 percent increase in the rate of deforestation in the region (Monga Bay). Likewise, the United States continues to destroy its primary, or old growth, forests. From 2000 to 2005, an average of 831 square miles of primary forest was cleared in the United States each year. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) published a report in 2005 that ranks the United States seventh in annual loss of primary forest globally (Butler 2005). We depend on biodiversity to provide us with clean air and water, medicine and food, and yet we continue to accelerate the pace of its destruction.
5.) The U.S. has expertise that can aid Venezuelas alternative energy industry
Elizabeth Ingram 8/27/13
Elizabeth Ingram,Senior Editor, Hydro Review and HRW-Hydro Review Worldwide HRW – Hydro Review Worldwide’s mission is to share practical, technical information and expertise on hydroelectric power. HRW – Hydro Review Worldwide brings together the international community sharing a common interest in hydro. This community includes: Developers, owners, and operators of hydroelectric plants.
The companies that provide products and services for the hydropower industry in the U.S. and Canada have valuable expertise that can be expanded outside the boundaries of their countries. After all, 95 of all consumers live outside the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, making the rest of the world a prime market for expansion. And with a Canadian population of 33.5 million and a world population of 7.1 billion, an even greater percentage of the global customer base lives outside of Canada.
What is the bottom line benefit of increasing exports to the economies of these two North American countries? Income and jobs.
In the U.S., for example, President Barack Obama has a goal of doubling exports and adding 2 million export-supported jobs by the end of 2014. In 2012, U.S. exports hit an all-time record of $2.2 trillion. Exports for the first quarter of 2013 were nearly $555 billion, the highest quarterly total on record. In addition, American jobs supported by exports increased to 9.8 million in 2012, up 1.3 million since 2009.
Several hydropower companies based in the U.S. and Canada are actively working to expand their business outside of this market. This article will discuss their efforts, the markets they are pursuing, and the challenges to be overcome. Understanding the export situation In May, President Obama launched a government-wide strategy to promote exports from the U.S. The goal is to strengthen America's economy, support additional jobs in the U.S., and ensure long-term, sustainable growth. One essential component of this strategy is the National Export Initiative, launched in January 2010. The Obama administration has made it a priority to improve the conditions that directly affect the private sector's ability to export, working to remove trade barriers abroad, help firms of all sizes and farmers overcome hurdles to entering new markets, and assist with financing. Support is strong for U.S.-based companies selling their goods and services abroad. Some of the ongoing efforts in this area, spearheaded by the U.S. Department of Commerce, include: - Building trade advocacy and export promotion efforts through such initiatives as the Doing Business in Africa Campaign; - Educating companies about markets opened by free trade agreements, such as South Korea, Colombia and Panama in 2012; and - Negotiating new trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, to address existing and newly emerging obstacles to U.S. exports. The structure is such that even relatively small businesses can get in on the export markets. In the U.S., nearly 300,000 small and medium-sized enterprises exported goods in 2011, accounting for 98 of all identified exporters. In 2011, these companies accounted for 33 of the overall value of U.S. merchandise exports. In Canada, exports of goods and services accounted for 30 of the country's gross domestic product, according to Foreign Affair, Trade and Development Canada. This division of the government manages diplomatic and consular relations, encourages the country's international trade, and leads its international development and humanitarian assistance. Another important agency is Export Development Canada, the country's export credit agency, tasked with supporting and developing the country's export trade by helping Canadian companies respond to international business opportunities. The agency provides insurance and financial services, bonding products and small business solutions to Canadian exporters and investors and their international buyers. Since it was founded in 1944, EDC has facilitated more than $1,041 billion in exports and foreign investment by Canadian companies. In 2012, the agency helped more than 7,400 Canadian companies do business in 187 countries. EDC customers' export sales and investments totaled $87.4 billion. The agency estimates this helped generate $52.7 billion on Canada's gross domestic product and helped sustain 573,773 jobs. Tools are available to help Canadian companies expand their export capabilities. For example, the Canada Border Services Agency offers a guide to help small and medium-sized enterprises export goods. To help companies assess their export potential, the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service offers a step-by-step guide. The agency also provides free services to exports and offers a knowledge center that provides information on global value chains, industry sectors and other practical guides and tools. Real-life experiences Many companies have taken advantage of the business growth potential offered by markets outside North America. The three companies featured in this article are based in the North American hydroelectric market but are actively exporting their goods and expertise overseas. Thordon Bearings Inc. in Ontario, Canada, was an early adopter, setting up a global distribution network in the mid-1980s to export its water-lubricated bearings to the hydroelectric turbine market, says Greg Auger, business development manager for renewable energy. The company's main focus at the time was water-lubricated bearings to be used for ship propulsion (rudders, propeller shafts, etc.). But after some initial success in North America, the company realized hydro plant operators around the world were facing the same challenges, Auger says. The company has a Thordon Distributor network that allows it to communicate in the same language and provide coordinated support globally. Thus, it seemed logical to expand into this new market for its products, he says. When asked what makes Thordon's products unique in the global market, Auger cites three key issues. First, the self-lubricated polymer used in the bearings means no pollution risk. Second, the use of this polymer results in long bearing wear life, meaning lower life cycle costs. And third, full technical support is available to consumers of Thordon's products, including system design, machining, installation and after-sales service and support. What is the financial bottom line for the company? Thordon is looking for strong sales growth of 20 annually in global markets, Auger says. Obermeyer Hydro Inc., based in Colorado, has been exporting its product since the late 1990s. The company manufactures pneumatically operated spillway gates, called the Obermeyer Spillway Gate system. This patented bottom-hinged spillway gate is essentially a row of steel gate panels supported on their downstream side by inflatable air bladders. By controlling the pressure in the bladders, the pond elevation maintained by the gates can be infinitely adjusted within the system control range (full inflation to full deflation) and maintained at user-selected setpoints, the company says. The system has been used on a variety of dams in North America, including Condit, Friant, Holtwood, Horseshoe (in Alberta, Canada), Veazie and more. As this product reached technical maturity in the 1990s, Obermeyer Hydro began seeking foreign markets. One significant reason for this was the need to diversify the company's seasonal delivery dates, says President Henry Obermeyer. In North America, these delivery dates were concentrated in July and August. For Obermeyer Hydro, long-term financial gains from expanding into world markets include ownership of foreign subsidiaries, repatriation of profits, diversification of the currency risk, and maintaining the company's position in its product category. A third company, Ohio-based Worthington Products Inc., made the decision to grow internationally in 2004, says President Paul S. Meeks. This decision was made to allow the company to tap into potential new growth markets. With the value of the U.S. dollar losing strength against other currencies, the cost to foreign clients was lowering every time the U.S. dollar slipped. With an expectation that it would take about three years to see results, the initial decision was backed by a financial and personnel commitment to support a three-year campaign. The decision to move internationally required a new thought process and an entire change in the company's marketing mix, Meeks says. Company literature had to be produced in key foreign languages, the website had to be translated into multiple languages, and participation in trade shows outside of North America was critical. An additional important factor was the ability of personnel to handle inquiries and respond in foreign languages. Personnel had to familiarize themselves with terms of sale on international projects, shipment and logistical issues, as well as understand the risks involved with foreign currency fluctuations. Finally, the company had to consider the exposure to political and other changes that could leave Worthington overly exposed to risk. Clients have told Worthington that its products, made in the U.S., are of high quality and reliable. Although this is a strong point, it does not make it easier for the company to obtain a contract to work on any particular hydro project, he says. There is significant competition in the international hydropower market, so beyond providing a high-quality product the company has a goal of offering exceptional customer service, before, during and after the sale, Meeks says. Worthington views every project as an opportunity to develop long-term relationships that will sustain future growth, he says. Today, international business accounts for more than 65 of Worthington's total transactions, and the company sees that share continuing to grow. "We do not view ourselves as a USA company. Rather, we are an Ohio-based corporation with a global presence," Meeks says. Hot markets The U.S. Department of Commerce says the top emerging markets for export of U.S. goods are Brazil, China, India, Russia and South Africa. In fact, U.S. exports to Brazil, India, China and South Africa have brown by 60 since 2009. How does this jibe with the hot markets some North American hydropower companies are pursuing? Worthington is continually evaluating and refining specific markets, Meeks says. Entering new markets presents net challenges and market perceptions that need to be overcome. In addition, economic conditions - particularly in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) - play a large role. Worthington currently sees the most growth opportunities in areas such as Latin America, Africa and India, Meeks says. Russia is attractive but Worthington says this country presents large cultural, language and trust barriers that must be overcome. The above-mentioned countries are growing rapidly, expanding their hydropower capacity and being developed by well-established international consortiums that reduce the exposure for a small company like Worthington, Meeks says. With regard to markets, Obermeyer says it is most interested in the Asian Rim, India and South America because of the need for electrical generation and water supply infrastructure development in these regions. Thordon doesn't limit itself to specific hot markets, saying instead it is interested in every country where turbine manufacturers, utilities, and repair and overhaul facilities are interested in clean power generation eliminating the need for oil and greased bearings. The company has authorized, factory-trained distributors in more than 100 countries, offering a wide range of business opportunities to pursue at existing and developing hydroelectric plants, Auger says. Overcoming challenges Meeks says there are many challenges to working outside of North America, among these being the challenge of overcoming existing perceptions and educating customers regarding the benefits of Worthington's products. Logistical and language issues might seem significant, but Meeks says they are easily overcome and have not presented tough barriers. When working in countries outside North America, Worthington partners with companies that specialize in logistics, freight handling and related items. In addition, it is crucial to have a strong relationship with bankers who are knowledgeable regarding international transactions, Meeks says. For example, Worthington recently worked on a project in the remote jungles of Brazil that involved shipping 400+ ocean containers from the U.S., plus another 50 or so from China, to a port on the Amazon River. The containers were offloaded to barges and moved another 1,000 miles upriver to a small town, then trucked three hours to a remote site for final assembly. Coordination of this massive project, with its logistical and financial challenges, would not have been possible without the support of logistics, freight handling and banking advisors, Meeks says. The biggest challenges of doing work internationally as a North America-based company come with regard to import duties and the challenges of patent enforcement, Obermeyer says. He says examples of countries with onerous import duties include China, Brazil and India. On the other hand, countries such as Mexico, Canada and South Korea offer zero or low import duties. Thordon feels one of the biggest challenges lies in developing new markets where this type of technology (grease- and oil-free bearings) does not currently exist and where hydro plant operators are reluctant to be the first to adopt a new technology in their countries. Most like to see references from their own countries, Auger says. To help overcome this objection, Thordon leverages its global experience to try to provide customers with references from the nearest geographical area in which the products are already installed. Conclusion Markets outside North America hold significant potential to improve a company's bottom line through increased sales. They also can help the local economy through job creation, something that is sorely needed in today's environment of 7.6 unemployment in the U.S. and 7.1 in Canada in June 2013. The companies featured in this article are successful examples of exporting North American technology and knowledge to the global hydropower market. Hopefully following their example will help you venture into this new arena and be well-equipped to deal with the challenges that arise.
6.) The Venezuelan government has shown an interest in alternative energy-they will say yes to the plan
Germán Massabié, “Venezuela: A Petro-State Using Renewable Energies” P. 204. April 17, 2009
Massabié writes books over large issues that are pressing the world. In this book, he has chosen to write about fossil fuels, there effects on the world, and those who produce them.
The previous two chapters gave an overview of the Venezuelan electricity system, it's actors, institutions and interactions. At present, hydropower accounts for about two thirds of the electricity generation and the other third is provided by fossil fuels. This chapter turns the focus toward new renewable energies, or as they are officially called in Venezuela, alternative renewable energy sources. Until 2003, the penetration of other renewable energy technologies for all purposes, including electrification of rural regions, was almost non-existent. Afterwards, however, RETs have timidly begun to be developed.
The Venezuelan government has stated its interest in introducing alternative energies since the 1970s. Yet, the concept “alternative” has been used in contrast to oil and hydropower; it includes thus, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, and new renewable energies. More recently have been introduced alternative renewable energy sources to set up a difference with natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy on one hand, and with large hydropower on the other. Hence, alternative renewable energy sources and new renewable energies are synonyms. Officially, however, Venezuela includes hydropower as a renewable energy regardless of the generating capacity of the facilities.
7.) Hydropower, a renewable energy source, helps combat global warming
SN Power, 2013
SN Power is a long term industrial player committed to sustainable development, profitable growth and integrity. We are the only hydropower company that operates solely in emerging markets. Part of the Statkraft Group, SN Power`s foundation builds on our owner´s 100+ years` experience of developing, owning and operating hydropower plants as the largest producer of electricity from hydropower in Europe.
When produced responsibly, hydropower production also impacts positively on local communities, benefits the local infrastructure, creates jobs and contributes generally to sustainable regional development. Using the energy of flowing water, without depleting it, means all hydropower projects meet the definition of renewable. A technology that has been known and proven for over a century, the impacts of hydropower are well understood and manageable through mitigation and enhancement measures. It offers vast potential and is available where development is most needed.
Potential
Of all renewable energy sources, hydropower is the most important and most widely used. Worldwide, it currently provides 19 of the global electricity supply. In Norway this increases to 98. Significantly however, worldwide, around two-thirds of economically feasible hydropower potential is currently undeveloped. Untapped hydro resources are still abundant in regions such as Latin America, Central Africa, India and China. Countries here also have the highest numbers of people currently without access to electricity.
Hydropower benefits
Meets fluctuating demand
Hydropower facilities offer operational flexibility and can therefore respond to fluctuating electricity demand.
Supports other renewables
Flexibility and storage capacity means it can support the use of intermittent renewables such as wind or solar power.
Price stability
Unlike fuel or natural gas, hydropower is not subject to market fluctuations.
Improves grid stability and reliability
Electricity generated from hydropower can be placed on the grid faster than any other energy source and can go from zero power to maximum output rapidly and predictably. This makes it well-suited to meeting changing loads and providing ancillary electrical services that maintain the balance between electricity supply and demand.
Helps fight climate change
The hydropower lifecycle produces very small amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs). By offsetting GHG emissions from gas, coal and oil fired power plants, hydropower can help slow global warming.
Can reduce pollution
Hydropower plants produce no air pollutants or toxic by-products. Where replacing fossil-fuelled generation, acid rain and smog can be reduced.
Makes a significant contribution to development
Hydropower facilities bring electricity, roads, industry and commerce to communities, thereby developing the economy, improving access to health and education, and enhancing the quality of life.
Contributes to freshwater storage
Hydropower reservoirs collect rainwater, which can then be used for drinking or irrigation.
Long term investment
Hydropower projects can benefit several generations. They have low operation and maintenance costs and can easily be upgraded to incorporate the latest technologies.
Advantage 2 is the preservation of life
1.) Life is precious and extremely valuable
Kurtz, Prof of Philosophy @ the State Univ of New York @ Buffalo, ‘94 (Paul, Towards A New Enlightenment p. 245)
Countless individuals have sung praises to life. They have eaten the forbidden fruit of the tree of life and have found it wholesome and nourishing, and in eating it they have discovered that life is intrinsically good. This is the basic touchstone for the ethics of humanism. Each and every person needs to create the conditions that will enable him to live richly and joyously., This, in the last analysis, is the purpose of all moral and ethical rules and regulations. They are good and right not only in themselves but also in their consequences-for what they make possible: wholesome, creative, happy lives. The common moral decencies and responsibilities need to be respected as essential to the very framework of life in the community. But the test of an ethical system is also whether it enables individuals to live exuberantly. Generation upon generation of hum an beings in the past have found life rewarding, and generation upon generation no doubt will continue to do so in the future. 1be acts of creative living, including the sharing of life with others, is the summum bonum of the human condition. That is the response the humanist gives 10 the theist. There is nothing ultimate or absolute beyond the living of life fully: it is its own reward and needs no justification beyond itself.
2.) Global warming ends thousands of valuable lives, and makes millions more miserable
John Vidal, Friday 29 May 2009 06.03 EDT
John Vidal is the Guardian's environment editor. He joined the paper in 1995 after working for Agence France Presse, North Wales Newspapers and the Cumberland News. He is the author of McLibel: Burger Culture on Trial (1998) and has contributed chapters to books on topics such as the Gulf war, new Europe and development
Climate change is already responsible for 300,000 deaths a year and is affecting 300m people, according to the first comprehensive study of the human impact of global warming.
It projects that increasingly severe heatwaves, floods, storms and forest fires will be responsible for as many as 500,000 deaths a year by 2030, making it the greatest humanitarian challenge the world faces.
Economic losses due to climate change today amount to more than $125bn a year — more than all the present world aid. The report comes from former UN secretary general Kofi Annan's thinktank, the Global Humanitarian Forum. By 2030, the report says, climate change could cost $600bn a year.
Civil unrest may also increase because of weather-related events, the report says: "Four billion people are vulnerable now and 500m are now at extreme risk. Weather-related disasters ... bring hunger, disease, poverty and lost livelihoods. They pose a threat to social and political stability".
If emissions are not brought under control, within 25 years, the report states:
• 310m more people will suffer adverse health consequences related to temperature increases
• 20m more people will fall into poverty
• 75m extra people will be displaced by climate change.
Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water supplies, it said. "Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation, hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between floods and droughts. Hundreds of millions of people are expected to become water stressed by climate change by the 2030."
The study says it is impossible to be certain who will be displaced by 2030, but that tens of millions of people "will be driven from their homelands by weather disasters or gradual environmental degradation. The problem is most severe in Africa, Bangladesh, Egypt, coastal zones and forest areas."
The study compares for the first time the number of people affected by climate change in rich and poor countries. Nearly 98 of the people seriously affected, 99 of all deaths from weather-related disasters and 90 of the total economic losses are now borne by developing countries. The populations most at risk it says, are in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, south Asia and the small island states of the Pacific.
But of the 12 countries considered least at risk, including Britain, all but one are industrially developed. Together they have made nearly $72bn available to adapt themselves to climate change but have pledged only $400m to help poor countries. "This is less than one state in Germany is spending on improving its flood defences," says the report.
The study comes as diplomats from 192 countries prepare to meet in Bonn next week for UN climate change talks aimed at reaching a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in December in Copenhagen. "The world is at a crossroads. We can no longer afford to ignore the human impact of climate change. This is a call to the negotiators to come to the most ambitious agreement ever negotiated or to continue to accept mass starvation, mass sickness and mass migration on an ever growing scale," said Kofi Annan, who launched the report today in London.
Annan blamed politicans for the current impasse in the negotiations and widespread ignorance in many countries. "Weak leadership, as evident today, is alarming. If leaders cannot assume responsibility they will fail humanity. Agreement is in the interests of every human being."
Barabra Stocking, head of Oxfam said: "Adaptation efforts need to be scaled up dramatically.The world's poorest are the hardest hit, but they have done the least to cause it.
Nobel peace prizewinner Wangari Maathai, said: "Climate change is life or death. It is the new global battlefield. It is being presented as if it is the problem of the developed world. But it's the developed world that has precipitated global warming."
Calculations for the report are based on data provided by the World Bank, the World Health organisation, the UN, the Potsdam Insitute For Climate Impact Research, and others, including leading insurance companies and Oxfam. However, the authors accept that the estimates are uncertain and could be higher or lower. The paper was reviewed by 10 of the world's leading experts incluing Rajendra Pachauri, head of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, Jeffrey Sachs, of Columbia University and Margareta Wahlström, assistant UN secretary general for disaster risk reduction.
3.) Stopping the menace of global warming would save thousands, and eventually millions of precious and valuable live annually
Marianne Lavelle Published September 26, 2013
Lavelle is a writer/publisher for National Geographic Magazine. National Geographic, formerly the National Geographic Magazine, is the official magazine of the National Geographic Society. It has been published continuously since its first issue in 1888, nine months after the Society itself was founded. It primarily contains articles about geography, history, and world culture.
More than 500,000 lives could be saved globally each year by 2030 if the world took action to curb climate change, adding up to massive health benefits that far exceed the costs of forcing a reduction in fossil fuel emissions, a new study concludes.
The research, published Sunday in Nature Climate Change, said the benefits were especially striking for China, with its large population now exposed to some of the worst pollution in the world. The air quality and health benefits in East Asia in 2030 would amount to 10 to 70 times the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers concluded. (See related, "Coal-Burning Shortens Lives in China, New Study Shows.")
It is the latest in a number of studies that have sought to underscore the health impact of climate change. With world leaders stymied on reaching a political agreement to curb fossil fuel emissions, much of this research seeks to quantify and make more tangible the costs of inaction. The new paper, written by a team led by Jason West, assistant professor of environmental sciences and engineering at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health, turns the equation around slightly: It seeks to quantify the benefits of action. (See related “Quiz: What You Don’t Know About Climate Change Science.”)
"Neglecting the air quality co-benefits misses an important component of the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions," West said in an interview. "We show those benefits are large enough that they should be part of the analysis, and it should give extra motivation for people to think about why we should be taking action to slow climate change." (See related, "New U.S. Limits on Power Plant Pollution: Five Points.")
Carbon Price, Health Benefits
The study calculates the potential health impact based on one potential scenario for greenhouse gas mitigation that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses in its latest assessment report—essentially, the scientific consensus statement on climate change—which will be made public Friday. The scenario (known prosaically, in typical IPCC fashion, as "Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5") is one in which nations establish a global price on carbon across all economic sectors through an efficiently functioning market. As a result, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would decrease by 2100 from a projected 760 parts per million (ppm) to 525 ppm. (Even though that would be an increase in atmospheric carbon from today's level of about 400 ppm, it would mark a substantial decrease in the current trajectory.) (See related, "Climate Milestone: Earth's CO2 Level Passes 400 ppm.")
Under such a scenario, fossil fuel use would decrease substantially; it would be replaced with nuclear and renewable energy, primarily wind power. Energy demand also would be curbed, and forest cover would be increased. The scenario assumes that the carbon emissions from nearly all electricity generated by fossil fuels and biofuels would be captured with carbon capture and geologic storage technology by 2100.
West and his team looked closely at just one set of health impacts of such a scenario: the benefits that would result from the substantial reductions in ozone and particulate matter, pollutants for which the link to respiratory disease and deaths is well established. (See related, "Five Reasons for Obama to Sell Climate Change as a Health Issue.") The researchers concluded that the average global benefits of avoided mortality from these pollutants would add up to $50 to $380 for every ton of carbon dioxide reduced by 2030, when a half million lives would be saved annually. That far exceeds the projected costs of those reductions, estimated to be from $0 to $33 per ton.
Looking Into the Future
If the world continued on this carbon reduction pathway, the number of lives saved by 2050 would increase to 1.3 million per year, and by 2100, to 2.2 million per year, the researchers projected. The health benefits would clearly exceed the costs in 2030 and in 2050. Even though the number of lives saved increases dramatically by 2100, it is less clear that the benefits outweigh the costs at that point in the projection. That's because the cost estimates for carbon mitigation become far greater in the distant future, when it assumed that there are no major technology breakthroughs and the cheapest measures—like energy efficiency—have been exhausted. Still, even in 2100, the health benefits calculated by the UNC team fall within the range of the lowest cost estimates for carbon mitigation.
"This is a very important kind of analysis, and I think more and more people are trying to figure out how best to do this," said Dan Greenbaum, president of Boston-based Health Effects Institute, who was not involved in the new study. "The impact of CO2 itself can seem quite abstract to people. This is a much more concrete way of showing what the other benefits are as you move away from coal-fired power plants."
Greenbaum noted that the researchers needed to look far into the future in their analysis, even though there are always uncertainties built into such long-term projections. The assumptions they've made "are not unreasonable ones," he said. Other studies may come up with lower projections on mortality due to air pollution in the distant future because of evidence that the number of deaths increase less rapidly at the higher levels of pollution seen in some Asian countries, he said. This was a key feature of the landmark Global Burden of Disease study published last year in The Lancet, in which Greenbaum participated. (See related, "Cookstove Smoke is 'Largest Environmental Threat,' Global Health Study Finds.")
The health benefits of climate mitigation in the UNC study are markedly higher than those calculated in previous studies that have attempted to tackle the issue. That's because the researchers sought to account for a number of influences not included in previous analyses, like the increase in economic activity (and value of life) in the future, the susceptibility to air pollution in certain populations, and the long-range transport of air pollution, affecting the health of people living "downwind." (See related, "Four Ways to Look at Global Carbon Footprints.")
4.) Life consists of intrinsically good and joyous moments that make life worth living, and drives us to always want to preserve the precious and valuable lives we are given
Kurtz, Prof of Philosophy @ the State Univ. of New York @ Buffalo, ‘94 (Paul, Towards A New Enlightenment p. 242)
First, The Fullness of Life: The vale of tears is balanced by the summit of joys, the sorrows of life by its achievements, the depths of despair by the flights of success. If life has tragic dimensions, it also has intrinsically worthwhile experiences. Though we may suffer grief at some moments, at other times we experience humor and laughter, enjoyment and delight. Although the priests remind us of the failures and defeats of human existence, humorists delight in fun, and we can savor and find pleasurable moments of experience. There is room in life for tears. but rather than submit to our fate, we can create a better life by exerting intelligence and effort, and by reducing or eliminating ignorance, hunger deprivation. disease. and conflict. Many of the ills of life can thus be remedied and ameliorated: the goods can outweigh and outdistance the evils, the tears can be balanced by joys.
5.) Alternative energy saves multiple forms of life. This is why clean, alternative energy should be highly valued and should be spread throughout the world.
Rinkesh Kukreja, no date given
Rinkesh is the editor of Clean and Green Energy, which he founded to educate people as to how they can save energy. Apart from this, he also writes on various management related topics and has recently created website on Management Guide and Training. He also now owns his own website dedicated to spreading the word of alternative and renewable energy in order to help save the Earth.
Hydro Power
Hydropower has now become the best source of electricity on earth. It is produced due to the energy provided by moving or falling water. History proves that the cost of this electricity remains constant over the year. Because of the many advantages, most of the countries now have hydropower as the source of major electricity producer.
Advantages of hydropower:
No pollutants!
The first benefit of the hydropower is that no air or water pollutants are produced. The water used does not contaminate the air or water by producing harmful wastes. No poisonous bi-products are produced. If we compare it to the a nuclear source which produce electricity from a radioactive substance in a nuclear reactor, then we notice that no pollutants are produced from a hydropower source as compared to the nuclear wastes and radioactive rays which are damaging the life on earth. These wastes from nuclear reactors then reach water due to power system and this is how water pollution takes place, not only affecting humans but also aquatic life.
Advantage 3 is the preservation of Earth
1.) Planet Earth houses all known forms of life, as well as some unknown forms of life
Suzanne Goldenberg Tuesday 23 August 2011 17.00 EDT
Suzanne Goldenberg is the US environment correspondent of the Guardian and is based in Washington DC. She has won several awards for her work in the Middle East, and in 2003 covered the US invasion of Iraq from Baghdad. She is author of Madam President, about Hillary Clinton's historic run for White House
Humans share the planet with as many as 8.7 million different forms of life, according to what is being billed as the most accurate estimate yet of life on Earth.
Researchers who have analysed the hierarchical categorisation of life on Earth to estimate how many undiscovered species exist say the diversity of life is not equally divided between land and ocean. Three-quarters of the 8.7m species – the majority of which are insects – are on land; only one-quarter, 2.2m, are in the deep, even though 70 of the Earth's surface is water.
The study, which is published in the journal PLoS Biology, underlines just how little humans know about what is out there – and which plants and animals will become extinct before scientists can even record their existence.
"Scientists have been working on this question of how many species for so many years," said Dr Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii and Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
The quest was growing increasingly urgent. "We know we are losing species because of human activity, but we can't really appreciate the magnitude of species lost until we know what species are there," he said.
An astonishing 86 of all plants and animals on land and 91 of those in the seas have yet to be named and catalogued, the study said.
The authors drew on the taxonomy, or categorisation system, devised by Carl Linnaeus about 250 years ago to arrive at their estimate of 8.7m – give or take 1.3m.
The Swedish biologist devised a hierarchical, tree-like structure where each individual species was classed in a series of progressively larger groups, culminating at the kingdom level. Thus a single species of hermit crab is classified in the decapod order, which belongs to the sub-phylum of crustaceans, the phylum of arthropods, and finally the animal kingdom.
The authors, in their analysis of existing data on 1.2m species, detected patterns between those hierarchical groupings which they could use to infer the existence of missing species that scientists have not yet described. That allowed them to use data from higher orders – such as anthropods, where there is a lot of data – to predict the number of creatures at the species level. Their estimate that the various forms of life on the planet included 7.8m species of animal, 298,000 species of plant and 611,000 species of mushrooms, mould and other fungi along with 36,400 species of protozoa, single-celled organisms, and 27,500 species of algae or chromists. The researchers did not venture to put an estimate on the number of bacteria.
Scientists have been trying to count and catalogue the living world for 250 years, since around the time when the Linnaeus devised his method of cataloging and naming living things. Current estimates range from 3m to 100m.
"It's not that we just don't know the names in the phone book. We don't know how big the phone book is," said Derek Tittensor, a co-author who works for the UN Environment Programme.
Robert May, a former UK government science adviser, acknowledged that this effort, like all those of its predecessors, was based on imperfect knowledge. But he said the study's conclusions were reasonable.
"It is sort of saying that the trunks and lower branches of the tree seem similar from group to group. At one end of the thing, you have birds and mammals that really are completely known. At the other end, you have just got a handful of branches and twigs. But if you do the big assumption the trees are similar, then it seems sensible."
The new estimate – like those that came before it – is unlikely to be the last word. There is still too much unknown to catalogue life, said Rob Dunn, author of Every Living Thing.
"What I almost guarantee will happen next is that someone will write a response saying that if you just change the parameters in such and such a way you will get fewer species, or you will get more species," he said.
"The truth is we are still so ignorant … There is still not a plot of tropical forest anywhere in the world that has been inventoried completely – not even a hectare."
Linnaeus, in his day, was confident he had captured the entire world of living things: he named about 10,000 species, most of which were confined to Europe.
More modern attempts to classify the living world have sought patterns from the size of living creatures, or their location. Were there more species in hot, tropical zones or in cooler areas? And what about the ocean depths? Others focused on the relationship between species.
In 1979, Terry Erwin, a carabidologist – beetle expert – at the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, went out into the jungles of Panama, rolled some sheeting on the ground and sprayed several trees with pesticide.
He discovered the bodies of more than 1,100 new species of beetle from the canopy of a single type of tree.
There could be as many as 30m species of insects in tropical rainforests alone, calculated Erwin. The finding drew controversy, but Erwin defended his method against those in the latest study. "Virtually all of them are really measuring human activity," he said. "These guys base these on classification of animals, and classification of animals are human constructs. The reason it is predictable is that humans are predictable, especially in the scientific field. What they are measuring really is human activity. It is not real activity out in the wild."
He went on: "I was the first to use real critters, not some kind of limp arithmetic. I had to make some assumptions and came out with 30m. What it started was a kind of cottage industry of estimating everything on the planet."
However, Nigel Stork, a professor of environmental science at Griffith University, south-east Queensland, believes the current study appears to be closer towards an accurate count. "I think it's a landmark paper," he said, adding that advances in electronic lists of species gave the authors a fuller set of data to work from. "Too often in the past, they used limited data and extrapolated way beyond the realm of what you could extrapolate."
The authors note that identifying and describing new life forms is expensive and slow, especially when set against the magnitude of species yet to be found or catalogued.
Barely 14 of creatures on Earth have been logged in central databases – just 9 of those in the seas, the study noted. And, according to David Kavanaugh, a beetle expert at the California Academy of Science, funding and other resources fall short of the task as research institutions are cutting back, and governments are more preoccupied with finding life on Mars than on Earth.
"The most frustrating this is to realise how little resources go into answering this question," he said. "One of those flights to Mars would fund us for decades in exploring life on this planet," he said. "It is very hard to get any money at all to go out, and yet they can go and blow up a rocket on a launch pad that would have funded my career and that of 100 others."
Most of those species waiting to be discovered will be small, and they are likely to be concentrated in remote areas or the depths of the ocean. But the authors said: "Many could be found literally in our own backyards."
But at the current pace, it would take 300,000 specialists 1,200 years to go through the laborious process of describing the new discoveries in scientific journals, and then entering them in electronic databases. "Describing species is a very time consuming process," said Tittensor. "Although it will be relatively straightforward to find a new species – there are millions of them out there – it is not necessarily an easy process to describe them in scientific literature."
Many of those species will be extinct before scientists have even registered their presence.
2.) In multiple ways, fossil fuels have messed Earth up, and constantly putting us at a higher and higher risk of getting even more messed up. This could inevitably lead to mass human extinction
Menkit Prince, Author, biodiversity activist, researcher, raw food prep instructor November 2011
She lives in the rainforests of NSW with her cat Cicero, absorbing the beauty of nature all around her, trying to think of what else she can do to help save this beautiful planet we live on. Her dearest wish is for you to join her in this most noble quest - the race to save our home, precious Earth, before it’s too late. For the sake of our children and for all living creatures.
Our oceans are in dire crisis. They are severely overfished, polluted with toxic chemicals, sewage, plastics, etc. Dead zones, where nothing lives, are doubling in size and number every 10 years. The Pacific Gyre garbage patch has 6 times more plastic than plankton. Without healthy oceans we won't have enough phytoplankton, which is the base of marine food chain and which creates 70-80 of the oxygen we breathe. Our climate is regulated by the ocean's currents, winds, and water-cycle activity. Our aquifers, streams, rivers, and lakes are threatened with coal seam gas, oil spills, chemicals from agriculture, and animal waste.
Forests have been felled for timber, mining and livestock grazing. This has a dire impact on our climate and also on biodiversity. Without habitat, native animals cannot survive. Without native animals, forests can't survive. Already 80 of our forests have been destroyed.
Our air quality has been damaged by methane/nitrous oxide from livestock industry (cows and sheep) and fossil fuel burning. We have also polluted the atmosphere from the use of many kinds of chemicals. (e.g. chemtrails from aeroplanes).
Soil quality has diminished greatly due to soil erosion caused by over grazing of hoofed animals (cows and sheep), mining, over-cultivation making it vulnerable to wind and rain. In the past 40 years alone, 30 percent of the planet’s arable land has become unproductive due to erosion. Soil erosion is one of the most critical environmental problems, threatening farmlands, streams and villages. When soil is eroded it can’t hold water and therefore is unable to grow vegetation and becomes a desert. Also our soil is polluted by herbicides and toxic chemicals used in farming.
We are living in the 6th Mass Extinction of all species. Every day we lose over 100 species, many that have evolved for millions of years. The Biodiversity crisis is more dire than the water crisis but is not being addressed. Without a large variety of species, each with large populations, humans will also become extinct.
3.) The burning of fossil fuels is now presenting us with an uninhabitable world
Nafeez Ahmed Wednesday 10 July 2013
Dr. Nafeez Ahmed is a bestselling author, investigative journalist and international security scholar. He is executive director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development, and author of A User's Guide to the Crisis of Civilization among other books. He writes for the Guardian on the geopolitics of environmental, energy and economic crises on his Earth insight blog
The world is currently on course to exploit all its remaining fossil fuel resources, a prospect that would produce a "different, practically uninhabitable planet" by triggering a "low-end runaway greenhouse effect." This is the conclusion of a new scientific paper by Prof James Hansen, the former head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the world's best known climate scientist.
The paper due to be published later this month by Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A) focuses less on modelling than on empirical data about correlations between temperature, sea level and CO2 going back up to 66 million years.
Given that efforts to exploit available fossil fuels continue to accelerate, the paper's principal finding - that "conceivable levels of human-made climate forcing could yield the low-end runaway greenhouse effect" based on inducing "out-of-control amplifying feedbacks such as ice sheet disintegration and melting of methane hydrates" - is deeply worrying.
The paper projects that global average temperatures under such a scenario could eventually reach as high as between 16C and 25C over a number of centuries. Such temperatures "would eliminate grain production in almost all agricultural regions in the world", "diminish the stratospheric ozone layer", and "make much of the planet uninhabitable by humans."
Hansen and his co-authors find that:
"Estimates of the carbon content of all fossil fuel reservoirs including unconventional fossil fuels such as tar sands, tar shale, and various gas reservoirs that can be tapped with developing technology imply that CO2 conceivably could reach a level as high as 16 times the 1950 atmospheric amount."
They calculate that there is "more than enough available fossil fuels" to generate emissions capable of unleashing "amplifying feedbacks" that could trigger a "runaway" greenhouse effect "sustained for centuries." Even if just a third of potentially available fossil fuel resources were exploited, calculations suggest, this scenario would still be guaranteed, meaning decisions we make this century will determine the fate of generations to come.
"Governments are allowing and encouraging fossil fuel companies to go after every conceivable fuel", said Hansen, "which is an obtuse policy that ignores the implications for young people, future generations and nature. We could make substantial parts of the Earth uninhabitable."
The conclusions of Hansen's latest paper are stark:
"Most remaining fossil fuel carbon is in coal and unconventional oil and gas. Thus, it seems, humanity stands at a fork in the road. As conventional oil and gas are depleted, will we move to carbon-free energy and efficiency - or to unconventional fossil fuels and coal?
... It seems implausible that humanity will not alter its energy course as consequences of burning all fossil fuels become clearer. Yet strong evidence about the dangers of human-made climate change have so far had little effect. Whether governments continue to be so foolhardy as to allow or encourage development of all fossil fuels may determine the fate of humanity."
The new paper by James Hansen is just the latest confirming that we are on the verge of crossing a tipping point into catastrophic climate change. Other recent scientific studies show that the current global emissions trajectory could within three years guarantee a 2C rise in global temperatures, in turn triggering irreversible and dangerous amplifying feedbacks.
According to a scientific paper given at the Geological Society of London last month, climate records from Siberian caves show that temperatures of just 1.5C generate "a tipping point for continuous permafrost to start thawing", according to lead author Prof Anton Vaks from Oxford University's Department of Earth Sciences. Conventional climate models suggest that 1.5C is just 10-30 years away.
Permafrost thawing releases sub-ice undersea methane into the atmosphere - a greenhouse gas twenty times more potent that carbon dioxide. In June, NASA's new five-year programme to study the Arctic carbon cycle, Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), declared:
"If just one percent of the permafrost carbon released over a short time period is methane, it will have the same greenhouse impact as the 99 percent that is released as carbon dioxide."
Another paper suggests that conventional climate modelling is too conservative due to not accounting for complex risks and feedbacks within and between ecosystems. The paper published in Nature last Wednesday finds that models used to justify the 2C target as a 'safe' limit focus only on temperature rise and fail to account for impacts on the wider climate system such as sea level rise, ocean acidification, and loss of carbon from soils. It concludes that the 2C target is insufficient to avoid dangerous climate change.
The problem is that our current global emissions trajectory already commits us to a 2C rise anyway. Papers published by the Royal Society in 2011 showed that emissions pledges would still put the world on track for warming anywhere between 2.5C and 5C - and that a failure to deliver these pledges could see global temperatures rise by 7C by 2100. Amongst them, a Met Office study concluded that strong amplifying feedbacks - such as the oceans' reduced ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide leading to further warming - could see us reach 4C as early as 2060.
But as Hansen explained in a recent interview:
"Four degrees of warming would be enough to melt all the ice... you would have a tremendously chaotic situation as you moved away from our current climate towards another one. That's a different planet. You wouldn't recognise it... We are on the verge of creating climate chaos if we don't begin to reduce emissions rapidly."
After the last round of climate talks in Doha, a report by Climate Action Tracker concluded that the world is currently on path to see warming of 3C by 2040, triggering the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic permafrost.
This was corroborated last month by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which found that even with current climate policies in place, we are locked into a rise of between 2C and 5.3C. Two years ago, the IEA concluded that we had five years left to implement urgent energy reforms after which we would no longer be able to avoid dangerous climate change. We are now three years away from that point-of-no-return.
To make matters worse, the IEA's analysis is based on conventional models which do not fully account for amplifying feedbacks such as methane releases from permafrost thawing. The IPCC's forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report, like its predecessors, will specifically exclude the permafrost carbon feedback from its projections.
The implication is that policymakers are riding blind - we do not really know how close we are to a tipping point into catastrophe.
There is a solution. According to Hansen, we need to focus on a maximum target of 1C. "The goal of keeping warming close to 1C is to keep climate close to the Holocene range, thus avoiding any major amplifying feedbacks," he said.
"The 1C goal requires rapid phase out of fossil fuel emissions, which would require a rising carbon fee. To continue to burn every fuel that can be found is the opposite approach - they are day and night."
Such a rapid fossil fuel phaseout was proposed to the Parliamentary Environment Audit Committee early last year in the form of complete decarbonisation of power by 2030. Unfortunately, the UK bill to that effect was narrowly defeated in the House of Commons last month.
There is still hope - the bill is currently up for consideration by the House of Lords. If the bill eventually passes, Britain might still play a leading role in heralding the energy revolution that could help save the planet, while saving the nation up to £100 billion.
4.) It is solely the human race's fault for the current state of the Earth, so it is our sole responsibility to fix it
Desh Raj Sharma, 16 July 2013
Sharma is an environmental activist who seeks to save the planet he, and billions more call home. For a number of years he has traveled the U.S. on a mission to educate people of the current state of the world, as well as where we are headed. Highly committed to his work, Desh is a person with clear heart, with no enmity with anything known.
Rising global temperatures, melting polar ice caps, bleaching coral reefs, floods and droughts – Mother Earth is ailing! Earth is the only source of life and we must save it at any cost. Without earth there will be no existence of human race or any other species as no other planet till date can sustain life like earth does. Earth is our only home and we must be the harbinger of change.
Earth is the source of all basic elements that keep us alive. But with each passing day, earth is facing major survival threats from human beings. Human beings have forgotten that earth is their only hope of existence and they must not pollute or over populate it. The growing pollution is causing excessive damage to the earth and disrupting the balance of the nature. The occurrence of natural disasters is more frequent than earlier, causing death of thousands of humans, plants and animal. Due to pollution and habitat loss, already many species of birds and animals are extinct and others are on the verge of extinction.
Deforestation and soil pollution has caused death of many species of plants and made maximum number of plants and crops endangered. Human activities are slowly destroying the earth day by day. The temperature of earth has gone up by four degrees in past years because of global warming, leading to the melting of ice caps in poles. The water level of earth has also up by several feet in last few years.
The environment is collapsing due to toxic fumes, chemical waste and excessive noise caused by industrial applications. Immediate steps must be taken, as soon as possible, to stop the destruction or this might be the end of human race. So, it’s our sole responsibility to save the earth.
5.) Alternative energy, including hydropower, can help alleviate the pressures that are placed on Earth due to humans. In short, alternative energy can save the world!
Louis Bergeron, January 26, 2011
Louis Bergeron is a science writer for Stanford University News Service covering earth sciences, biology, chemistry and environmental science. He has written on research findings as varied as the importance of circadian rhythm to learning retention in Siberian hamsters, energy transfer in near-collisions at the molecular scale, and tagging and tracking studies of bluefin tuna, white sharks and leatherback turtles. Before joining the News Service he worked as a freelance science writer and editor, contributing to print and online publications such as New Scientist, ScienceNOW, Exploratorium Magazine, PC World, SWARA (the magazine of the East African Wild Life Society) and Stanford Medicine. He earned a bachelor's degree in geology from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a master's degree in earth sciences from the University of California-Santa Cruz.
If someone told you there was a way you could save 2.5 million to 3 million lives a year and simultaneously halt global warming, reduce air and water pollution and develop secure, reliable energy sources – nearly all with existing technology and at costs comparable with what we spend on energy today – why wouldn't you do it?
According to a new study coauthored by Stanford researcher Mark Z. Jacobson, we could accomplish all that by converting the world to clean, renewable energy sources and forgoing fossil fuels.
"Based on our findings, there are no technological or economic barriers to converting the entire world to clean, renewable energy sources," said Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering. "It is a question of whether we have the societal and political will."
He and Mark Delucchi, of the University of California-Davis, have written a two-part paper in Energy Policy in which they assess the costs, technology and material requirements of converting the planet, using a plan they developed.
The world they envision would run largely on electricity. Their plan calls for using wind, water and solar energy to generate power, with wind and solar power contributing 90 percent of the needed energy.
Geothermal and hydroelectric sources would each contribute about 4 percent in their plan (70 percent of the hydroelectric is already in place), with the remaining 2 percent from wave and tidal power.
Vehicles, ships and trains would be powered by electricity and hydrogen fuel cells. Aircraft would run on liquid hydrogen. Homes would be cooled and warmed with electric heaters – no more natural gas or coal – and water would be preheated by the sun.
Commercial processes would be powered by electricity and hydrogen. In all cases, the hydrogen would be produced from electricity. Thus, wind, water and sun would power the world.
The researchers approached the conversion with the goal that by 2030, all new energy generation would come from wind, water and solar, and by 2050, all pre-existing energy production would be converted as well.
"There are no technological or economic barriers to converting the entire world to clean, renewable energy sources," said Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering.
"We wanted to quantify what is necessary in order to replace all the current energy infrastructure – for all purposes – with a really clean and sustainable energy infrastructure within 20 to 40 years," said Jacobson.
One of the benefits of the plan is that it results in a 30 percent reduction in world energy demand since it involves converting combustion processes to electrical or hydrogen fuel cell processes. Electricity is much more efficient than combustion.
That reduction in the amount of power needed, along with the millions of lives saved by the reduction in air pollution from elimination of fossil fuels, would help keep the costs of the conversion down.
"When you actually account for all the costs to society – including medical costs – of the current fuel structure, the costs of our plan are relatively similar to what we have today," Jacobson said.
One of the biggest hurdles with wind and solar energy is that both can be highly variable, which has raised doubts about whether either source is reliable enough to provide "base load" energy, the minimum amount of energy that must be available to customers at any given hour of the day.
Jacobson said that the variability can be overcome.
"The most important thing is to combine renewable energy sources into a bundle," he said. "If you combine them as one commodity and use hydroelectric to fill in gaps, it is a lot easier to match demand."
Wind and solar are complementary, Jacobson said, as wind often peaks at night and sunlight peaks during the day. Using hydroelectric power to fill in the gaps, as it does in our current infrastructure, allows demand to be precisely met by supply in most cases. Other renewable sources such as geothermal and tidal power can also be used to supplement the power from wind and solar sources.
"One of the most promising methods of insuring that supply matches demand is using long-distance transmission to connect widely dispersed sites," said Delucchi. Even if conditions are poor for wind or solar energy generation in one area on a given day, a few hundred miles away the winds could be blowing steadily and the sun shining.
"With a system that is 100 percent wind, water and solar, you can't use normal methods for matching supply and demand. You have to have what people call a supergrid, with long-distance transmission and really good management," he said.
Another method of meeting demand could entail building a bigger renewable-energy infrastructure to match peak hourly demand and use the off-hours excess electricity to produce hydrogen for the industrial and transportation sectors.
Using pricing to control peak demands, a tool that is used today, would also help.
Jacobson and Delucchi assessed whether their plan might run into problems with the amounts of material needed to build all the turbines, solar collectors and other devices.
They found that even materials such as platinum and the rare earth metals, the most obvious potential supply bottlenecks, are available in sufficient amounts. And recycling could effectively extend the supply.
"For solar cells there are different materials, but there are so many choices that if one becomes short, you can switch," Jacobson said. "Major materials for wind energy are concrete and steel and there is no shortage of those."
Jacobson and Delucchi calculated the number of wind turbines needed to implement their plan, as well as the number of solar plants, rooftop photovoltaic cells, geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal and wave-energy installations.
They found that to power 100 percent of the world for all purposes from wind, water and solar resources, the footprint needed is about 0.4 percent of the world's land (mostly solar footprint) and the spacing between installations is another 0.6 percent of the world's land (mostly wind-turbine spacing), Jacobson said.
One of the criticisms of wind power is that wind farms require large amounts of land, due to the spacing required between the windmills to prevent interference of turbulence from one turbine on another.
"Most of the land between wind turbines is available for other uses, such as pasture or farming," Jacobson said. "The actual footprint required by wind turbines to power half the world's energy is less than the area of Manhattan." If half the wind farms were located offshore, a single Manhattan would suffice.
Jacobson said that about 1 percent of the wind turbines required are already in place, and a lesser percentage for solar power.
"This really involves a large scale transformation," he said. "It would require an effort comparable to the Apollo moon project or constructing the interstate highway system."
"But it is possible, without even having to go to new technologies," Jacobson said. "We really need to just decide collectively that this is the direction we want to head as a society."