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Page: Hunter-Irwin Aff
Tournament | Round | Opponent | Judge | Cites | Round Report | Open Source | Edit/Delete |
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Niles | 2 | Walter Payton MY | Peter, Ann |
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To modify or delete round reports, edit the associated round.
Entry | Date |
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Peso 1acTournament: Niles | Round: 2 | Opponent: Walter Payton MY | Judge: Peter, Ann Contention One is Economic CrisisUncertainty in the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy has already caused substantial devaluation of the Mexican Peso and paralyzed policy efforts to restore it.Harrup, 9/4 The Bank of Mexico might be sorely tempted to cut interest rates this week after Market expectations of ending quantitative easing creates fears that investment will shift from Mexico to the US—resulting in a sell-off of the peso.Prothero 6/28, Neil Prothero, Economist Intelligence Unit’s lead analyst on the UK, regular contributor to the independent economic forecasts produced by the UK Treasury and the Bank of England "The end isn’t nigh¶ Central bank challenges as the era of cheap money enters a new phase", Economics Intelligence Unit, http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The20end20isn~’t20nigh20-20July202013.pdf-http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The end isn't nigh - July 2013.pdf, June 28th 2013) Investors have reacted with some alarm to indications that the US Federal Reserve could soon Fed communication failures mean actual policy is irrelevant—lack of trust in the Fed locks in risk of economic contagionSummers 7/3, Nick Summers, covers Wall Street and finance for Bloomberg Businessweek, "Fed Spreads Confusion With Efforts to ’Clarify’ Bernanke’s Remarks", Bloomberg, July 03, 2013, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-03/fed-spreads-confusion-with-efforts-to-clarify-bernankes-remarks-http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-03/fed-spreads-confusion-with-efforts-to-clarify-bernankes-remarks) Mexican currency exchange crisis would cause economic collapseMishkin 99 The first implication is that, in contrast to what happens in most industrialized countries Mexico’s only solution is worse than the problem—intervention via higher interest rates backfires disrupt the bond market and crushes Latin American liquidity-US interest rates rising Empirically American fiscal policy can cause currency crises in Mexico which spread internationally—internal link is hair-trigger and instantJohnson 9/5 Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation—escalatesHarris and Burrows, ’09 ~Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf-http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf~~ Additionally, systemically important global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and accesses an internal link to the global economyGriffin 6/11, Donald Griffin, reporter for Bloomberg News , "Citigroup Facing 247 Billion Hit on Dollar Gain, Peabody Says", Bloomberg, 6/11/13, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-11/citigroup-facing-7-billion-currency-hit-on-dollar-peabody-says~~23p3) Global warming is real, anthropogenic, and on the brink of drastic and irreversible warming. Healthy banking sector is critical to political will and financing tech to solve.Reynolds 8/20 On a cross-country bus trip through the American Midwest, I watch cool morning mist rise from patchwork fields. Between the fields stand groves of dark green mid-summer trees, I am reminded that this scene is in jeopardy. The region is cited for its vulnerability to desertification associated with climate change. Increased atmospheric carbon concentration and the subsequent alteration of global climates will irretrievably change not only the beauty, but also the economic potency, of this land and so many others. Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that global climate change is indeed happening and is, in fact, caused by human greenhouse gas emissions. This year, the most problematic greenhouse gas, CO2, has sky-rocketed from its nearly million-year equilibrium of 300 parts per million (ppm) to 400ppm—a mere 50ppm shy of what many scientists agree will cause drastic and irreversible climate change. Now what? Myriad proposals and schemes are in development to mitigate, stop, and reverse this climate change. They all have two things in common—controlling atmospheric carbon and the lingering question of who will foot the bill? Transitioning to renewable energies, increasing forestland, reducing carbon emissions through technological efficiencies, and rerouting the global transportation system for fuel efficiency all require financial support. Enter the finance industry. With the recent financial crisis still painfully fresh in our minds, many of us are irked by the U.S, finance industry’s hubris and greed. Like many around the world, I was personally disillusioned by the compensation structures, incentives, and lack of regulation that ostensibly led to the worst economic crisis in 80 years. That same industry, however, is also known for ingenuity and for employing some of the most brilliant minds of our era. It is also chock-full of good-hearted, climate-savvy individuals who recognize what they can do to help mitigate climate change and global carbon emissions. Over the last years, groups of these individuals have developed tools and affected legislative changes to fund the end of climate change. Those on board include states like California and Massachusetts; countries like Norway, Sweden, and China; and international organizations like the World Bank and the European Investment Bank. The financing is often used for rail transportation, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and green building projects. These carbon-neutral or greenhouse gas mitigating projects may push climate stability and preserve the Midwest landscape I see today. There are a few different tools the finance industry has whipped up to make these projects realities. One of the more developed green-finance tools is sustainably-focused mutual and pension funds. Instead of investing in traditional petroleum or coal companies, their energy investments may focus on renewables. They may also include investments in energy-efficient automotive i+630nitiatives, trains, green building, and sustainable energy sources. The financial professionals managing the funds can often invest in projects that positively affect the world while creating similar returns for investors. There has also been a recent shift towards state-mandated Renewable Portfolio Standards for utilities. Electric companies in 28 U.S. states and Washington D.C. have been mandated to finance or hold sustainable entities. These often represent investments in renewable energy supplies, coal plants that sequester their carbon emissions, or other carbon-mitigating energy sources. As the number of participating states and the percentage of utilities’ portfolios invested in green technology increase, the direction our energy companies must head will be increasingly clear. Another sustainable financial instrument is expected to see huge growth on the open market over the coming years—climate-themed or green bonds. Just like U.S. Treasury "T" bonds, climate-themed bonds are loans given by bondholders to a bond-issuing government or company in exchange for interest payments to the bondholder—dividends. Climate-themed bond dividends are tax-free in recognition of their global benefit and to incentivize their uptake into the market. Despite the commonplace and understandably skeptical sentiment towards the financial and banking industries, these financial tools present powerful forces to end climate change. The tools described here are just the beginning as the mammoth task of tackling climate change develops and becomes more politically mainstream. As I look out my window again, the mist has evaporated, exposing thousands of acres of lush green fields and dark woodlands. I hope that my daughter—still too young to remember today—will see this same lush landscape. There is a way to ensure that she can, but the projects need to be financed. Read more at http://news.mongabay.com/2013/0820-reynolds-finance-climate.html~~232FI2cHs4THkqHBGv.99 ====Warming causes extinction of every species==== Cahill ’12 A second financial crisis would be fatal for US leadership.Nye 10 The United States has been widely blamed for the recent financial crisis. As the Economic primacy prevents all conflict escalationFreidberg 26 Schonfeld, 8 —- *Professor of Politics and IR at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School, AND senior editor of Commentary and a visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton (10/21/2008, Aaron and Gabriel, "The Dangers of a Diminished America", Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) With the global financial system in serious trouble, is America’s geostrategic dominance likely to Decline of US power projection results in great power warsZhang and Shi, 1/22/11 – Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. (America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/) This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, but There is no alternative to hegemony—collapse goes nuclearFerguson 4—history and business, Harvard MA and D.Phil from Glasgow and Oxford (Niall, A World Without Power, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/afp/vac.htm, AMiles) Critics of U.S. global dominance should pause and consider the alternative. No offense – the US will act hegemonic even in decline—plan key to effectivenessRobert Kagan, Senior Fellow @ Brookings, former fellow @ Carnegie, PhD History, expert in defense policy, The Weekly Standard, January 2011, "Cutting defense spending would place the US in a greater peril than the debt crisis" It would require not just a modest reshaping of American foreign policy priorities but a PlanThe United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement toward Mexico by expanding and making semi-permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de México-http://www.banxico.org.mx/.====Contention Two is SolvencyCredit swap lines empirically create market confidence in the peso and allow coordinated crisis management.Olson et al 9 Currency swaps are an uncontroversial method of solidifying the peso.Starr 9 Implications for U.S.-Mexico Affairs: ¶ A Window of Opportunity¶ Swap lines are the only alternative to currency controls that escalate the crisis. Only the plan can calm international currency markets.Mehrotra et al 12 Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ ====Global warming is real, caused by human CO2 emissions, and will cause flooding and feedback loops that causes population migrations fueling political instability, economic collapse, and failed states, escalating to nuclear war in a vicious cycle to extinction==== | 9/14/13 |
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