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Page: Berg-Lundy Aff
Tournament | Round | Opponent | Judge | Cites | Round Report | Open Source | Edit/Delete |
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Niles | 1 | Glenbrook South KV | Tang, Wayne |
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To modify or delete round reports, edit the associated round.
Entry | Date |
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Peso 1acTournament: Niles | Round: 1 | Opponent: Glenbrook South KV | Judge: Tang, Wayne Contention One is Economic CrisisUncertainty in the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy has already caused substantial devaluation of the Mexican Peso and paralyzed policy efforts to restore it.Harrup, 9/4 The Bank of Mexico might be sorely tempted to cut interest rates this week after Market expectations of ending quantitative easing creates fears that investment will shift from Mexico to the US—resulting in a sell-off of the peso.Prothero 6/28, Neil Prothero, Economist Intelligence Unit’s lead analyst on the UK, regular contributor to the independent economic forecasts produced by the UK Treasury and the Bank of England "The end isn’t nigh¶ Central bank challenges as the era of cheap money enters a new phase", Economics Intelligence Unit, http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The20end20isn~’t20nigh20-20July202013.pdf-http://www.btinvest.com.sg/system/assets/16003/The end isn't nigh - July 2013.pdf, June 28th 2013) Investors have reacted with some alarm to indications that the US Federal Reserve could soon Fed communication failures mean actual policy is irrelevant—lack of trust in the Fed locks in risk of economic contagionSummers 7/3, Nick Summers, covers Wall Street and finance for Bloomberg Businessweek, "Fed Spreads Confusion With Efforts to ’Clarify’ Bernanke’s Remarks", Bloomberg, July 03, 2013, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-03/fed-spreads-confusion-with-efforts-to-clarify-bernankes-remarks-http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-03/fed-spreads-confusion-with-efforts-to-clarify-bernankes-remarks) Mexican currency exchange crisis would cause economic collapseMishkin 99 The first implication is that, in contrast to what happens in most industrialized countries Mexico’s only solution is worse than the problem—intervention via higher interest rates backfires disrupt the bond market and crushes Latin American liquidity-US interest rates rising Empirically American fiscal policy can cause currency crises in Mexico which spread internationally—internal link is hair-trigger and instantJohnson 9/5 Most financial crises begin with one weak country and then spread as investors re- Global economic decline leads to miscalculation and crisis escalation—escalatesHarris and Burrows, ’09 ~Mathew, PhD European History at Cambridge, counselor in the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and Jennifer, member of the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit "Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis" http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf-http://www.ciaonet.org/journals/twq/v32i2/f_0016178_13952.pdf~~ Additionally, systemically important global banks are on the brink—current devaluation makes growth unsustainable and accesses an internal link to the global economyGriffin 6/11, Donald Griffin, reporter for Bloomberg News , "Citigroup Facing 247 Billion Hit on Dollar Gain, Peabody Says", Bloomberg, 6/11/13, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-11/citigroup-facing-7-billion-currency-hit-on-dollar-peabody-says~~23p3) A second financial crisis would be fatal for US leadership.Nye 10 The United States has been widely blamed for the recent financial crisis. As the Economic primacy prevents all conflict escalationFreidberg 26 Schonfeld, 8 —- *Professor of Politics and IR at Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School, AND senior editor of Commentary and a visiting scholar at the Witherspoon Institute in Princeton (10/21/2008, Aaron and Gabriel, "The Dangers of a Diminished America", Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122455074012352571.html?mod=googlenews_wsj) With the global financial system in serious trouble, is America’s geostrategic dominance likely to Decline of US power projection results in great power warsZhang and Shi, 1/22/11 – Yuhan Zhang is a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C.; Lin Shi is from Columbia University. She also serves as an independent consultant for the Eurasia Group and a consultant for the World Bank in Washington, D.C. (America’s decline: A harbinger of conflict and rivalry, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/) This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, but There is no alternative to hegemony—collapse goes nuclearFerguson 4—history and business, Harvard MA and D.Phil from Glasgow and Oxford (Niall, A World Without Power, http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/afp/vac.htm, AMiles) Critics of U.S. global dominance should pause and consider the alternative. No offense – the US will act hegemonic even in decline—plan key to effectivenessRobert Kagan, Senior Fellow @ Brookings, former fellow @ Carnegie, PhD History, expert in defense policy, The Weekly Standard, January 2011, "Cutting defense spending would place the US in a greater peril than the debt crisis" It would require not just a modest reshaping of American foreign policy priorities but a And, that makes your impacts worse—the US will lash out irrationallyShapiro 9 – Robert, professor of political science at Columbia University and acting director Plausible as these arguments may be, the opposite case may be equally plausible. PlanThe United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement toward Mexico by expanding and making semi-permanent the currency swap agreement with the Banco de México-http://www.banxico.org.mx/.====Contention Two is SolvencyCredit swap lines empirically create market confidence in the peso and allow coordinated crisis management.Olson et al 9 Currency swaps are an uncontroversial method of solidifying the peso.Starr 9 Implications for U.S.-Mexico Affairs: ¶ A Window of Opportunity¶ Swap lines are the only alternative to currency controls that escalate the crisis. Only the plan can calm international currency markets.Mehrotra et al 12 Recent episodes of market volatility have highlighted two kinds of risks associated with more ¶ | 9/14/13 |
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