Tournament: TOC | Round: 7 | Opponent: GBS CM | Judge: David Heidt
Advantage one – Fast growth

The US economy won’t collapse, but is entering a long-term slump
AP 14 – citing former treasury secretary Larry Summers and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman
(“US economy may be stuck in slow lane for long run,” http://www.cnbc.com/id/101402528)
Some long-term trends are equally dispiriting.¶ Job seekers fill out applications at
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during this recovery compared with other economies that have suffered a financial crisis.

Slow growth collapses US leadership – causes great power war
Khalilzad 11 – PhD, Former Professor of Political Science @ Columbia, Former ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan
(Zalmay Khalilzad was the United States ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, and the United Nations during the presidency of George W. Bush and the director of policy planning at the Defense Department from 1990 to 1992. "The Economy and National Security" Feb 8 http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/259024/economy-and-national-security-zalmay-khalilzad)//BB
Today, economic and fiscal trends pose the most severe long-term threat to
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, hostile states would be emboldened to make aggressive moves in their regions. 

States will inevitably compete for relative status – only primacy prevents conflict
Wohlforth 9 - Professor of government at Dartmouth
(William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” World Politics, 61:1, January, Project Muse)
 Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent
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ways that directly contradict their material interest in security and/or prosperity.

There’s no root cause to conflict, but heg controls escalation – internalizes costs
Moore 4 – Dir. Center for Security Law and Professor of Law @ University of Virginia, Editor of the American Journal of International Law
(John Norton, “Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace,” pg. 41-43)
If major interstate war is predominantly a product of a synergy between a potential nondemocratic
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in general, happens when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

Hegemony is the norm – err towards avoiding shocks to the system
Brooks 13 – et al, All IR professors and PhDs
(Stephen G., G. John, William C., “Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment” International Security
Volume 37, Number 3)
In this article, we assess the case for retrenchment on its own terms.
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two sides to the scholarly debate on U.S. grand strategy.

Don’t conflate primacy with unnecessary military intervention
Colby 8 – former staff member in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and on the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction
(Elbridge, Orbis, “Nuclear Abolition: A Dangerous Illusion,” Science Direct Database)
An Uncomfortable but Necessary Paradox¶ A wise, if cynical, Russian proverb counsels
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, through strength. If you wish for peace, prepare for war.

EB-5’s facilitate substantial cash infusions and border competitiveness
Nickell 13
(JK, “The New — and Rich — Immigrants from Mexico: How Their Money is Changing Texas,” http://nation.time.com/2013/01/14/the-new-and-rich-immigrants-from-mexico-how-their-money-is-changing-texas/)
Asian investors still claim the lion’s share of foreign investment in the city, but
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both the U.S. and Mexico because the ties grow tighter.”

Time-frame is immediate – executives are watching for alternatives to China
MHL 14
(Materials, Handling and Logistics, “High-Tech Firms Take a Closer Look at Nearshoring,” http://mhlnews.com/global-supply-chain/high-tech-firms-take-closer-look-nearshoring)
“The set-it-and-forget-it mentality of simply chasing
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-engineering and supply chain management to help companies evaluate their sourcing options.

Mexico is key
Wilson 11 – MA in International Affairs @ American U, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs
(Christopher, “Working Together,” Mexico Institute @ Woodrow Institute, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Working20Together20Full20Document.pdf)//BB
With studies focused at the regional level, some analysts have argued that U.
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for the United States to improve its global competitiveness and defend American industry.

EB-5’s have unique multiplying effect
Yale-Loehr, Professor Immigration Law at Cornell, ‘9 (Stephen- Co-author of Immigration Law and Procedure, Vice-Chair of Business Immigration Committee at the American Immigration Lawyers Association, “Promoting Job Creation and Foreign Investment in the United States: An Assessment of the EB-5 Regional Center Program” Congressional Testimony Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing, lexis)
These examples illustrate that although the number of EB-5 investors is small compared
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All this occurs at no expense to the U.S. taxpayer.

Advantage two – Asia

Korean war causes extinction
Hayes and Hamel-Green 9 - Professor of International Relations – RMIT University AND Michael; Dean and Professor of Arts, Education and Human Development – Victoria University
(Peter, “The Path Not Taken, The Way Still Open: Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia,” http://www.nautilus.org/projects/A-J-disarm/research-workshop/drafts/hayes-hamel-green.pdf)
The consequences of failing to address the proliferation threat posed by the North Korea developments
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threat but a global one that warrants priority consideration from the international community. 

South China Sea war likely and escalates
Wesley 12 (Michael, Former Professor of International Relations and Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University, Former Executive Director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, “What's at stake in the South China Sea?”, 7/25/12, http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/whats-stake-south-china-sea)
The South China Sea is the flashpoint in the Pacific where conflict is most likely to break out through miscalculation. It is a crowded maritime environment contested by some inexperienced maritime forces with underdeveloped naval doctrine, among whom there are no established and accepted rules for managing maritime incidents.1 And the combination of the claimant states’ power asymmetries, overlapping prerogatives, and growing nationalism mean that incidents, once they occur, are likely to escalate.

It draws in the US
Klare 13 - professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College
(Michael Klare, “The Next War”, January 23, 2013, Real Clear World, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/01/23/the_next_war_100500.html)
Lurking just behind the Iranian imbroglio, however, is a potential crisis of far
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waterways might paralyze international commerce and trigger a global recession (or worse).

Leads to nuclear winter
Wittner 11 - Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research.,
(Lawrence S, “Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?,” www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
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—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction. 

Regional diplomacy can’t check SCS conflict
Klare 13 - professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College
(Michael Klare, “The Next War”, January 23, 2013, Real Clear World, http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2013/01/23/the_next_war_100500.html)
Far more is, of course, at stake than just the ownership of a
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play a more vigorous and assertive role in the region and the world.

China-Taiwan war draws in major powers, leads to extinction
Glaser, Professor PolSci George Washington, ’11 (Charles, March/April, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs, Vol 90 Issue 2, EbscoHost)
ACCOMMODATION ON TAIWAN? THE PROSPECTS for avoiding intense military competition and war may be
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military efforts and a general poisoning of U.S.-Chinese relations. 

China-Japan conflict on the brink – interdependence doesn’t check
Douglas 14 – citing Dr. Niall Ferguson and Williams, professor of Asian and Inter­national Studies at the City ­University of Hong Kong
(Hilary, “China and Japan on the brink of Third World War,” http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/462565/China-and-Japan-on-the-brink-of-Third-World-War)
As China flexes its military might, with huge increases in defence spending and increasingly
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-dependence between the two countries.Ӧ China, predictably, was furious.

Causes extinction
Khan 10 – Financial Express
(Maswood, September 22, “An islet straining China and Japan” http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=112447anddate=2010-09-22)
ONE thing leads to another. Tensions between neighbours flare up at the slightest provocation
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showing its muscle to Japan the way America showed its muscle to Iraq.

All those conflicts are inevitable within 5 years if Chinese growth doesn’t slow
Keck 14 – citing John Mearsheimer, professor of IR
(Zachary, US-China Rivalry More Dangerous Than Cold War?, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-china-rivalry-more-dangerous-than-cold-war/)
The prominent realist international relations scholar John Mearsheimer says there is a greater possibility of
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potential threat to the United States than anything America has previously dealt with.

No risk of diversionary wars
Drezner 14 – Professor of IR at Tufts
(Daniel, “The System Worked: Global Economic Governance during the Great Recession”, World Politics, Volume 66. Number 1, January 2014, pp. 123-164)
The final significant outcome addresses a dog that hasn't barked: the effect of the
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surge in protectionist nationalism or ethnic exclusion that might have been expected."43

THE PLAN SOLVES – it slows the Chinese economy by braking exports
Spalding 4-1 – JD @ Case Western, attorney in the International Trade practice group at King and Spalding. His practice concentrates on representing U.S. producers in trade remedy actions, including antidumping and countervailing duty matters, particularly involving imports from China and Vietnam. Mr. Denning regularly represents clients in actions before the Department of Commerce and the United States Court of International Trade
(King, “Downturn in Chinese economy may be triggering an export surge,” http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=c2438d32-f375-4028-b263-b424cb7e214e)
There is consensus among western economists and policymakers that exports are critical to economic growth
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Chinese currency has given back 1 percent of its value against the dollar.

The plan leads to nearshoring – undermines Chinese export dominance
Wilson 11 – MA in International Affairs @ American U, Associate at the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where he develops the Institute’s research and programming on regional economic integration and U.S.-Mexico border affairs
(Christopher, “Working Together,” Mexico Institute @ Woodrow Institute, Scholar)
Outside of North America, the largest challenge to U.S.-Mexico integration
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44 countries to increase jointly produced exports to the rest of the world.

Statistical evidence supports the internal link chain
Holland 13 – analyst @ SCMP
(Tom, “Despite rebalancing, exports still vitally important to China,” http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1278239/despite-rebalancing-exports-still-vitally-important-china)
Economists look at net exports because that's the accounting measure they use when calculating GDP
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the world, and that its growth remains highly vulnerable to external shocks.

The United States federal government should streamline and approve employment visa five for Mexicans.

Solvency

EB-5’s for Mexicans are key to border competitiveness – stimulates growth away from Asia
Wharton 13 – Wharton Business School
(“Can Entrepreneurial Visas Help Fuel Economic Development along the Mexico-U.S. Border?,” http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/can-entrepreneurial-visas-help-fuel-economic-development-along-the-mexico-u-s-border/)
The EB-5 program “is probably the best, but least understood,
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options we use for finding the capital needed” for such a transformation.

EB-5 exists, but increased approval rates are key to Mexican investment
Bosque 12 - work has appeared in Time magazine and NACLA Report on the Americas
(Melissa, “Ransom Notes: Serial Kidnapping in Mexico,” http://www.utne.com/politics/kidnapping-in-mexico-zm0z12mazsie.aspx?PageId=6#axzz2yyRFw3tV)
In McAllen, Marco Ramirez and his partner Efrain Arce opened an EB-5
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was no longer productive so they couldn’t renew his visa,” Diez says.

Streamlining solves – allows investment to match tight deadlines
Loten 14
(Angus, “Franchises Target Immigrants as Buyers,” February, WSJ, Proquest)
Interest in the program has skyrocketed since the financial crisis, as traditional forms of
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It has been a constant challenge dealing with investor concerns," he says.

Tournament: TOC | Round: 2 | Opponent: GBN MT | Judge: Mimi
Advantage one – Asia
Naval policing of oil choke-points leads to US-China conflict
Klare 11 - professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College
(Michael, The new Cold War, December 6, http://www.salon.com/2011/12/06/the_new_cold_war_2/)
Now, so the Obama administration has concluded, the tables are beginning to turn
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not the definition of good statesmanship, but of the march of folly.

Disputes will escalate – alliances and tit-for-tat draw-in guarantee miscalculation
Bonnie S. Glaser 12, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Armed Clash in the South China Sea, April, http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China, Taiwan
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intensifying bilateral strategic competition would likely make managing such a crisis more difficult.

Nuclear war
Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?",  www.huntingtonnews.net/14446)
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
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that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.

No defense – Cooperation assumes effective dialogue on both sides, which won’t happen because of institutional constraints and divergent goals
Mikkal Herberg 11, Research Director on Asian energy security at The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). He is also a Senior Lecturer on international energy at the Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies at the University of California San Diego, China’s Energy Rise and the Future of U.S.-China Energy Relations, June 21, http://newamerica.net/publications/policy/china_s_energy_rise_and_the_future_of_us_china_energy_relations
Moreover, the potential to view our energy security problems as shared challenges continues to
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development of an increasingly statist, politicized, and balkanized global oil market.

THE PLAN SOLVES – Sustaining the domestic oil boom solves energy competition between US and China
Walter Russell Mead 12, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at CFR, Energy Revolution 3: The New American Century, July 18, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/18/energy-revolution-3-the-new-american-century/
Get ready for an American century: that appears to be the main consequence of
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, strengthen friendly ones, and promote U.S.-China cooperation.

Oil abundance changes Naval strategy – lowers the pressure to police choke-points
Little 13 – associate, is a portfolio manager and trader within the Global Fixed Income Group. In this role, Kevin focuses on US interest rates and commodities. Prior to this, he was a Client Portfolio Manager focused on Emerging Market Debt and Core Fixed Income. An employee since 2005, he previously worked as a trading assistant on the Interest Rate Derivatives/Swaps desk in the Investment Bank
(Kevin, “Not our independence day: Energy security in the coming decade Insight blog,” JP Morgan, http://insights.jpmorgan.co.uk/adviser/commentary-and-analysis/not-our-independence-day-energy-security-in-the-coming-decade-insight-blog/)
Despite the improbable scenario of outright energy independence, increased energy security is actually quite
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at this point, it is certainly a step in the right direction.

Perception is sufficient to change leader behavior
Levi 13 - senior fellow for energy and environment at the Council on Foreign Relations
(Michael, “How the oil and gas boom will change America: An interview with Michael Levi,” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/05/how-the-oil-and-gas-boom-will-change-america-an-interview-with-michael-levi/)
BP: Now what about foreign policy? Plenty of economists and energy analysts have
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totally sensible and consequential when people have a different picture of the world.

Advantage 2 - OPEC
Offensive operations by Hezbollah ignite another Israel-Lebanon war
Saab, Center for Nonprolif Studies, ’11 (Bilal, August, “The Next War: How Another Conflict between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides are Preparing for It” Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2011/08_hizballah_israel/08_hizballah_israel.pdf)
The prevailing peace along the Lebanon-Israel border in the intervening five years is
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to play close attention to the nascent conflict under preparation in Lebanon and Israel

Hezbollah aggression ensures Israeli retaliation
Thompson, President Mackenzie Institute, ’10 (John, July, “The Coming War: An appreciation of the Intentions of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas” http://www.mackenzieinstitute.com/2010/predicting-war072610.htm)
How the Eruption Might Begin Westerners still fondly recall the Medieval Knight, bashing his
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be very inaccurate. Wars have a habit of running away with themselves.

That triggers extinction
Beres, Professor PolSci Purdue, ’11 (Louis Rene, August 17, “Israel, Anarchy, and Global Chaos” JPost, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=234092)
In history, there is a powerful difference between anarchy and chaos. Watching different
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short-term harm to prevent a much longer-term collective disappearance.

Israel thinks other actors are irrational so deterrence logic fails
Nili, PhD Candidate PolSci Notre Dame, ’11 (Shmuel- IDF Captain Media and Communications Division, Spring, “The Nuclear (and the) Holocaust: Israel, Iran, and the Shadows of Auschwitz” Journal of Strategic Security, Vol 4 Issue 1, p 37-56, http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1073andcontext=jss)
It is a gross mistake to think that the Israeli Holocaust-fuelled sense of
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sense that the enemy will pay any price to achieve its messianic goal.

Aff solves – volatility in the Brent-WTI spread causes a shift away from WTI as a benchmark for prices – that results in OPEC dominance
Kaminski 11
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/19/463296/oil-shock-2-0-or-the-benchmark-wars/
    FT Alphaville Reporter at Financial Times
Past: Associate Producer at CNBC, Associate editor at Platts
Education:    University College London, U. of London
Concerns are mounting that $100 oil prices, if hit, could be enough
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its control. An oil shock 2.0, so to speak. 

OPEC monopoly leads to terrorism
FIRST – Funding
Beller 11
(Mario, “US Must Break OPEC Monopoly to Be Secure: Ex-CIA Head,” http://www.cnbc.com/id/43353875)
The killing of Osama bin Laden was a fine CIA and Navy SEAL operation but
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We’re not going to solve the overall problem until we break oil’s power."

SECOND – state sponsorship
Stakelbeck 8
(Erick, “How America Is Funding Terrorism,” http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2008/July/How-America-Is-Funding-Terrorism-/)
Much of that imported oil comes from OPEC, a group made up of 13
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for that country's nuclear program and its terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Breaking OPEC is necessary AND sufficient
Zubrin 8 – Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering
(Robert, “A flex-fuel mandate would stop the U.S from funding its enemies,” NRO, http://m.nationalreview.com/articles/223654/breaking-opecs-grip-robert-zubrin)
With such a production and distribution infrastructure in place, we could proceed to not
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to Africa. That is the way to win the war on terror.

Plan
The United States federal government should license crude oil swaps between the United States and Mexico.

Solvency
A domestic crude glut is coming in 2014 – collapses domestic production – exports solve
OC 13 – knowledge base for accessing unconventional crudes
(Opportunity Crudes, “Shale plays,” http://opportunitycrudes.com/index.php?topics=shaleandvalue=1816)
A number of analysts are beginning to say that US crude prices will likely fall
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that domestic production remains at current levels to encourage overall US economic growth.

Reverse causal – the plan incentivizes new exploration and development
Little 13 – associate, is a portfolio manager and trader within the Global Fixed Income Group. In this role, Kevin focuses on US interest rates and commodities. Prior to this, he was a Client Portfolio Manager focused on Emerging Market Debt and Core Fixed Income. An employee since 2005, he previously worked as a trading assistant on the Interest Rate Derivatives/Swaps desk in the Investment Bank
(Kevin, “Not our independence day: Energy security in the coming decade Insight blog,” JP Morgan, http://insights.jpmorgan.co.uk/adviser/commentary-and-analysis/not-our-independence-day-energy-security-in-the-coming-decade-insight-blog/)
The type of crude oil being produced is also not ideal to meet domestic demand
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This could increase energy independence, assuming that production increases faster than expected.

Glut collapses long-term production – the plan’s signal of certain exports is key
Arnsdorf 13 – Bloomberg analyst
(Isaac, November, “U.S. oil glut seen in 2015 as export ban tested,” http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/27/u-s-oil-glut-seen-in-2015-as-export-ban-tested/?__lsa=8eeb-f25d)
“You get to the point that the market doesn’t know what to do with
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stopping of our production growth and with it our illusions of energy independence.”

The oil boom goes bust absent crude export licenses
Meyer 13 – NY analyst for Financial Times
(Gregory, “US shale boom at risk, watchdog warns,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2217180a-70aa-11e2-85d0-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http3A2F2Fwww.ft.com2Fcms2Fs2F02F2217180a-70aa-11e2-85d0-00144feab49a.htmland_i_referer=#axzz2M8x6Ct25)
The boom in US oil production unleashed by new shale drilling techniques is in jeopardy
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the bigger challenges facing the energy industry lurk not below ground but above.

Mexico is key – solves concerns of producers and refiners
Krauss 14 - bureau chief of The New York Times Canada bureau
(Clifford, “Conflict in Oil Industry, Awash in Crude,” NYT, Proquest)
Producers like Mr. Sheffield warn that a mounting glut of certain grades of oil
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would give the producers another market and give refiners more oil to process.
There’s a short time-frame to production declines – a swap with Mexico is key
Turner-Mason 13 - provides engineering and management consulting services for the petroleum and petrochemical industries
(“Crude Oil Exports – The Next Political “Hot Potato?”,” http://www.turnermason.com/blog/2013/06/24/crude-oil-exports-the-next-political-hot-potato/)
One option which has been discussed involves crude swaps. Companies could be permitted to
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need to be addressed quickly to prevent a sharp slowdown in production growth.

Oil companies will respond immediately
Nightingale 13
(Alaric, November, “U.S. Demand to Export Crude Seen Soaring Amid Hydrocarbons Boom,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/u-s-demand-to-export-crude-seen-soaring-amid-hydrocarbons-boom.html)
Oil companies will apply for government permits to sell crude overseas by 2015 and some
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inevitable,” Morse said. “Applications for exports should start to soar.”

Mexican export market is the make or break for US refineries
Matt Dilallo 13, contributor to Motley Fool, The U.S. Imports More Oil Than Drugs From Mexico, May 19, http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/19/the-us-imports-300-more-oil-than-drugs-from-mexico.aspx
Further, the oil trade with Mexico highlights an interesting dynamic. Even as the
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then reacquired as a lighter-grade product such as gasoline or diesel.

Tournament: TOC | Round: 4 | Opponent: GBN DK | Judge: Richard Day
Advantage one – Russia
Russian aggression is likely – draws in Baltic states – leads to nuclear war
Economist 14
(“All for one,” Editorial staff, http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21599771-alliance-must-banish-suspicion-it-would-not-always-defend-its-eastern-flank-all)
Instead, the West should forcefully reassert NATO’s willingness to defend itself and make it
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be commensurately greater. That in turn would pose the immediate threat of escalation

That leads to extinction
Starr 14 - associate of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation and senior scientist for Physicians for Social Responsibility
(Steven, “Ukraine + NATO = Nuclear War,” http://www.truth-out.org/speakout/item/22397-ukraine-nato-nuclear-war)
The greatest single mistake that the US can make now is to pledge that US
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could easily become a nuclear war that could destroy all nations and peoples.

This month is key – it’s Putin’s window of opportunity
Felegnhauer 3-25 - Russian journalist. He is known for his publications critical of Russia's political and military leadership
(Pavel, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/25/russia_s_window_of_opportunity_in_ukraine)
Russia's Window of Opportunity in Ukraine If Putin wants to make a grab for Ukraine's
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unfortunately, is precisely what could trigger more bold moves down the road.

Only sustaining the current oil boom dissuades Putin aggression
Helman 14 – Forbes energy staff in Houston
(Christopher, “The Ukraine Crisis Is Bolstering America's Oil And Gas Boom,” FORBES, http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/03/10/the-ukraine-crisis-is-bolstering-americas-oil-and-gas-boom/)
Yardeni noted this New York Times editorial over the weekend as proof positive that the
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to thank the American energy boom of the 2010s for bankrupting Vladimir Putin.

Oil abundance creates negotiating leverage – solves Russian aggression
Nicks 14 – MS @ Columbia
(Denver, “How the U.S. Energy Boom is Changing America’s Place in the World,” http://time.com/5922/fracking-energy-boom-natural-gas-geopolitics-iran/)
It wasn’t even five years ago that Iran reelected hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a disputed
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point Moscow has shown itself more than willing to use in the past.

Natural gas can’t solve
Koch 14
(Wendy, “U.S. energy boom proposed as Ukraine bargaining tool,” USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/03/07/us-energy-boom-prompts-geopolitical-debate/6126297/)
Currently, natural gas cannot be exported without DOE approval. The department has approved
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natural gas are not slated to reach the region until Sept. 2018.

Signals of weakness encourage Putin aggression
McFaul 3-24 - Hoover fellow at Stanford, served for five years in the Obama administration, as a special assistant to the president at the National Security Council and as ambassador to the Russian Federation
(Michael, “Confronting Putin’s Russia,” NYT, Proquest)
In my first years in government, I witnessed President Medvedev cooperating with President Obama
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States must, too, through a policy of selective containment and engagement.

Advantage 2
Only a Mexican oil swap can stave off price hikes in the WTI
Matthew Phillips 13, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Swapping U.S. Crude for Mexico's Heavy Oil Won't Really Work, August 6, http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-08-06/swapping-u-dot-s-dot-crude-for-mexicos-heavy-oil-wont-really-work
Not so long ago, the consensus among energy analysts was that all the world’s
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a recent interview. “The first place to look should be Mexico.” 

Price hikes cause massive market volatility in the Brent-WTI spread
Jim Efstathiou Jr. and Jim Snyder 13, Bloomberg, U.S. Considers Exporting More Oil for First Time Since ’70s, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-18/americans-exporting-more-oil-first-time-since-70s.html?utm_source=andamp;utm_medium=emailandamp;utm_campaign=7544
Advances such as hydraulic fracturing are leading to record production that may outstrip refinery capacity
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crude are going to allow refiners to squeeze producers, boosting refining margins.”

Volatility in the Brent-WTI spread causes a shift away from WTI as a benchmark for prices – that results in OPEC dominance
Kaminski 11 http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/19/463296/oil-shock-2-0-or-the-benchmark-wars/ FT Alphaville Reporter at Financial Times Past: Associate Producer at CNBC, Associate editor at Platts Education: University College London, U. of London
Concerns are mounting that $100 oil prices, if hit, could be enough
AND
its control. An oil shock 2.0, so to speak. 

That kills the petrodollar, which ends dollar hegemony
Moors 11
http://books.google.com/books?id=xppCxwsxT6YCandpg=PA176andlpg=PA176anddq=global+benchmark+wti+brent+22in+dollars22andsource=blandots=ImR0xxqgBVandsig=JEoc-uMSvBpm6XVx7SlVfZSak3Aandhl=enandsa=Xandei=060pT-rTFYbf0QGf8OzMCgandved=0CEAQ6AEwBQ#v=onepageandq=global20benchmark20wti20brent2022in20dollars22andf=false
Dr. Moors is an internationally recognized expert on oil and natural gas policy
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Research Fellow, Center for Strategic Studies, London, 1985-89
 This is perhaps the greatest irony of all. By obliging that oil be
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it would also add another dimension to the already disconcerting energy security debate.

That ends US leadership
Looney 3 Robert, Prof. Nat'l. Sec. Affairs @ Naval Postgraduate, Strategic Insights, "From Petrodollars to Petroeuros: Are the Dollar's Days as an International Reserve Currency Drawing to an End?" Vol. II, Iss. 11, November, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp
Political power and prestige. The benefits of "power and prestige" are nebulous
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of account) was certainly an available alternative to the dollar.12 

States will inevitably compete for relative status – only primacy can prevent conflict
Wohlforth 9 - Professor of government at Dartmouth
(William, “Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War” World Politics, 61:1, January, Project Muse)
 Second, I question the dominant view that status quo evaluations are relatively independent
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ways that directly contradict their material interest in security and/or prosperity.

There are hundreds of causes of conflict – hegemony deters and controls escalation by internalizing costs
Moore 4 – Dir. Center for Security Law and Professor of Law @ University of Virginia, Editor of the American Journal of International Law
(John Norton, “Solving the War Puzzle: Beyond the Democratic Peace,” pg. 41-43)
If major interstate war is predominantly a product of a synergy between a potential nondemocratic
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in general, happens when levels of deterrence are dramatically increased or decreased?

Hegemony is the norm – err towards avoiding shocks to the geopolitical system
Brooks 13 – et al, All IR professors and PhDs
(Stephen G., G. John, William C., “Don't Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment” International Security
Volume 37, Number 3)
In this article, we assess the case for retrenchment on its own terms.
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two sides to the scholarly debate on U.S. grand strategy.

Don’t conflate primacy with “endless violence” or unnecessary military intervention
Colby 8 – former staff member in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and on the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction
(Elbridge, Orbis, “Nuclear Abolition: A Dangerous Illusion,” Science Direct Database)
An Uncomfortable but Necessary Paradox¶ A wise, if cynical, Russian proverb counsels
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, through strength. If you wish for peace, prepare for war.

Plan
The Department of Commerce should license crude oil swaps between the United States and Mexico.

Solvency
A domestic crude glut is coming in 2014 – collapses domestic production – exports solve
OC 13 – knowledge base for accessing unconventional crudes
(Opportunity Crudes, “Shale plays,” http://opportunitycrudes.com/index.php?topics=shaleandvalue=1816)
A number of analysts are beginning to say that US crude prices will likely fall
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that domestic production remains at current levels to encourage overall US economic growth.

Reverse causal – the plan incentivizes new exploration and development
Little 13 – associate, is a portfolio manager and trader within the Global Fixed Income Group. In this role, Kevin focuses on US interest rates and commodities. Prior to this, he was a Client Portfolio Manager focused on Emerging Market Debt and Core Fixed Income. An employee since 2005, he previously worked as a trading assistant on the Interest Rate Derivatives/Swaps desk in the Investment Bank
(Kevin, “Not our independence day: Energy security in the coming decade Insight blog,” JP Morgan, http://insights.jpmorgan.co.uk/adviser/commentary-and-analysis/not-our-independence-day-energy-security-in-the-coming-decade-insight-blog/)
The type of crude oil being produced is also not ideal to meet domestic demand
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This could increase energy independence, assuming that production increases faster than expected.

Glut collapses long-term production – the plan’s signal of certain exports is key
Arnsdorf 13 – Bloomberg analyst
(Isaac, November, “U.S. oil glut seen in 2015 as export ban tested,” http://business.financialpost.com/2013/11/27/u-s-oil-glut-seen-in-2015-as-export-ban-tested/?__lsa=8eeb-f25d)
“You get to the point that the market doesn’t know what to do with
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stopping of our production growth and with it our illusions of energy independence.”

The oil boom goes bust absent crude export licenses
Meyer 13 – NY analyst for Financial Times
(Gregory, “US shale boom at risk, watchdog warns,” Financial Times, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2217180a-70aa-11e2-85d0-00144feab49a,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http3A2F2Fwww.ft.com2Fcms2Fs2F02F2217180a-70aa-11e2-85d0-00144feab49a.htmland_i_referer=#axzz2M8x6Ct25)
The boom in US oil production unleashed by new shale drilling techniques is in jeopardy
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the bigger challenges facing the energy industry lurk not below ground but above.

Mexico is key – solves concerns of producers and refiners
Krauss 14 - bureau chief of The New York Times Canada bureau
(Clifford, “Conflict in Oil Industry, Awash in Crude,” NYT, Proquest)
Producers like Mr. Sheffield warn that a mounting glut of certain grades of oil
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would give the producers another market and give refiners more oil to process.

There’s a short time-frame to production declines – a swap with Mexico is key
Turner-Mason 13 - provides engineering and management consulting services for the petroleum and petrochemical industries
(“Crude Oil Exports – The Next Political “Hot Potato?”,” http://www.turnermason.com/blog/2013/06/24/crude-oil-exports-the-next-political-hot-potato/)
One option which has been discussed involves crude swaps. Companies could be permitted to
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need to be addressed quickly to prevent a sharp slowdown in production growth.

Oil companies will respond immediately
Nightingale 13
(Alaric, November, “U.S. Demand to Export Crude Seen Soaring Amid Hydrocarbons Boom,” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-12/u-s-demand-to-export-crude-seen-soaring-amid-hydrocarbons-boom.html)
Oil companies will apply for government permits to sell crude overseas by 2015 and some
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inevitable,” Morse said. “Applications for exports should start to soar.”

Mexican export market is the make or break for US refineries
Matt Dilallo 13, contributor to Motley Fool, The U.S. Imports More Oil Than Drugs From Mexico, May 19, http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/19/the-us-imports-300-more-oil-than-drugs-from-mexico.aspx
Further, the oil trade with Mexico highlights an interesting dynamic. Even as the
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then reacquired as a lighter-grade product such as gasoline or diesel.

Tournament: NDCA | Round: 1 | Opponent: Peninsula | Judge: Abby Schirmer
Plan
The Export Import Bank of the United States should offer substantial financing for non corn biofuels in Mexico.
1
Advantage one – Ex-Im
Warming is anthropogenic – the most comprehensive data-sets are conclusive
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech,
*John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy
Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis
*Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al.,
(“Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, 8.2)
An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). Communicating the scientific consensus also increases people's acceptance that climate change (CC) is happening (Lewandowsky et al 2012). Despite numerous indicators of a consensus, there is wide public perception that climate scientists disagree over the fundamental cause of global warming (GW; Leiserowitz et al 2012, Pew 2012). In the most comprehensive analysis performed to date, we have extended the analysis of peer-reviewed climate papers in Oreskes (2004). We examined a large sample of the scientific literature on global CC, published over a 21 year period, in order to determine the level of scientific consensus that human activity is very likely causing most of the current GW (anthropogenic global warming, or AGW).¶ Surveys of climate scientists have found strong agreement (97–98) regarding AGW amongst publishing climate experts (Doran and Zimmerman 2009, Anderegg et al 2010). Repeated surveys of scientists found that scientific agreement about AGW steadily increased from 1996 to 2009 (Bray 2010). This is reflected in the increasingly definitive statements issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the attribution of recent GW (Houghton et al 1996, 2001, Solomon et al 2007).¶ The peer-reviewed scientific literature provides a ground-level assessment of the degree of consensus among publishing scientists. An analysis of abstracts published from 1993–2003 matching the search 'global climate change' found that none of 928 papers disagreed with the consensus position on AGW (Oreskes 2004). This is consistent with an analysis of citation networks that found a consensus on AGW forming in the early 1990s (Shwed and Bearman 2010).¶ Despite these independent indicators of a scientific consensus, the perception of the US public is that the scientific community still disagrees over the fundamental cause of GW. From 1997 to 2007, public opinion polls have indicated around 60 of the US public believes there is significant disagreement among scientists about whether GW was happening (Nisbet and Myers 2007). Similarly, 57 of the US public either disagreed or were unaware that scientists agree that the earth is very likely warming due to human activity (Pew 2012).¶ Through analysis of climate-related papers published from 1991 to 2011, this study provides the most comprehensive analysis of its kind to date in order to quantify and evaluate the level and evolution of consensus over the last two decades.¶ 2. Methodology¶ This letter was conceived as a 'citizen science' is not provided. Schulte estimated a higher percentage of endorsements and rejections, possibly because the strict methodology we adopted led to a greater number of 'No Position' abstracts. Schulte also found a significantly greater number of rejection papers, including 6 explicit rejections compared to our 0 explicit rejections. See the supplementary information (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/024024/mmedia) for a tabulated comparison of results. Among 58 self-rated papers, only one (1.7) rejected AGW in this sample. Over the period of January 2004 to February 2007, among 'global climate change' papers that state a position on AGW, we found 97 endorsements.¶ 5. Conclusion¶ The public perception of a scientific consensus on AGW is a necessary element in public support for climate policy (Ding et al 2011). However, there is a significant gap between public perception and reality, with 57 of the US public either disagreeing or unaware that scientists overwhelmingly agree that the earth is warming due to human activity (Pew 2012).¶ Contributing to this 'consensus gap' are campaigns designed to confuse the public about the level of agreement among climate scientists. In 1991, Western Fuels Association conducted a $510?000 campaign whose primary goal was to 'reposition global warming as theory (not fact)'. A key strategy involved constructing the impression of active scientific debate using dissenting scientists as spokesmen (Oreskes 2010). The situation is exacerbated by media treatment of the climate issue, where the normative practice of providing opposing sides with equal attention has allowed a vocal minority to have their views amplified (Boykoff and Boykoff 2004). While there are indications that the situation has improved in the UK and USA prestige press (Boykoff 2007), the UK tabloid press showed no indication of improvement from 2000 to 2006 (Boykoff and Mansfield 2008).¶ The narrative presented by some dissenters is that the scientific consensus is '...on the point of collapse' (Oddie 2012) while '...the number of scientific "heretics" is growing with each passing year' (Allègre et al 2012). A systematic, comprehensive review of the literature provides quantitative evidence countering this assertion. The number of papers rejecting AGW is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time. Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2 based on self-ratings, 97.1 based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.
There is a low threshold for RUNAWAY warming – newest studies prove
Goldblatt 13 – PhD in Environmental Sciences, Research Associate, Virtual Planetary Laboratory and Astronomy Department @ U Washington
(Colin, et al., “Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates,” Nature Geoscience 6, 661–667, doi:10.1038/ngeo1892)
Here, we present the most complete study of the runaway greenhouse for 25 years, across the full range of temperatures, using modern input spectroscopic data and a line-by-line treatment of the solar and thermal radiation (see the Methods). We limit ourselves to clear-sky (cloud-free) calculations, which embody the first-order physics of the problem. Clouds both reflect solar radiation (making the runaway less likely) and enhance the greenhouse (making it more likely). Omitting them yields hard upper bounds on both solar absorption and thermal emission. This is a robust place to begin a re-evaluation of the problem, with thought experiments on how clouds will modify the results.¶ The runaway greenhouse has contemporary relevance. There has been high-profile speculation that extreme anthropogenic global change could trigger it13, but this is contrary to existing theory2, 5 and numerical results14. It also sets the inner boundary of the circumstellar habitable zone15, 16 in which the Kepler mission is identifying planetary candidates at present17.¶ We begin with the absolute endmember case of a pure water atmosphere: neither any background gas nor any greenhouse gas other than water. With increasing surface temperature, evaporation from the ocean adds mass to the bottom of the atmosphere, so this is a good approximation for a hot atmosphere in which the water vapour mixing ratio asymptotes to one.¶ The optical depth of the atmosphere, ?? (a function of wavelength), is measured downward from the top. Effective emission to space and attenuation of sunlight occur where ??1 (given Beer’s law; I1?=?I0exp???, where I0 and I1 are the incident and transmitted radiance), so plotting the altitude of ???=?1 shows where emission to space and absorption of sunlight dominantly occur (Fig. 1).¶ Figure 1: Spectra and effective absorption and emission levels in a pure water atmosphere.¶ Spectra and effective absorption and emission levels in a pure water atmosphere.¶ Ts is surface temperature. a, Spectrum of downward solar flux at the surface. No line data are available for the grey shaded area. b, Altitude at which optical depth is unity. Solid line is absorption optical depth and dashed line is Rayleigh scattering optical depth. Background shading is atmospheric temperature. c, Spectrum of outgoing thermal flux at the top of the atmosphere. Solid lines are the black body flux at the surface temperature. Dotted lines are the black-body flux for 280 and 400?K for comparison. See also Supplementary Fig. S2.¶ Full size image (253 KB)¶ Figures/tables index¶ Next¶ For thermal emission, ???=?1 is either near the surface or not reached for low surface temperatures (Ts), but rises towards high altitudes as the planet warms. While Ts?1,600?K, the temperature of ???=?1 remains between 250 and 300?K, so the top of atmosphere thermal spectrum is bounded by Planck functions for temperatures of 250 and 300?K, and is independent of Ts. Thus, the Simpson–Nakajima radiation limit emerges as 282?W?m?2 (Fig. 2), lower than previous estimates (for example, 310?W?m?2, ref. 9). When Ts?1,600?K the upper atmosphere temperature gradient is sufficiently steep that the temperature reaches 400?K at ???=?1 in the 4??m water vapour window (Fig. 1c). Hence, a new peak in thermal radiation emerges, sufficient to permit a new stable climate with a steam atmosphere. No surface radiation escapes directly to space. Observation of this emission peak in a (exo)planetary atmosphere would indicate that the planet is in a runaway greenhouse state.¶ Figure 2: Top of atmosphere fluxes from a pure water atmosphere.¶ Top of atmosphere fluxes from a pure water atmosphere.¶ a, solar; b, thermal; and c, net flux. Colours identify different surface albedos: green for 12 and purple for 25. Steady-state climates are found where the net outgoing flux is zero; stable steady states are where the flux is increasing with increasing temperature as it passes through zero, and unstable steady states are where it decreases with increasing temperature as it passes through zero.¶ Full size image (256 KB)¶ Previous¶ Figures/tables index¶ Next¶ Earth’s atmosphere is largely transparent to solar radiation. However, for water-rich atmospheres, increasing temperatures are accompanied by increases in atmosphere pressure and water vapour absorption. The additional pressure increases the Rayleigh scattering optical depths at shorter wavelengths, whereas near-infrared water vapour vibration rotation bands increase the absorption optical depth at longer solar wavelengths. Both processes attenuate sunlight, very little of which reaches the surface, so surface albedo no longer affects the radiation budget. In the limiting case, for a pure water atmosphere without clouds and the present solar flux, a maximum of 294?W?m?2 is absorbed, much higher than the previous estimate9 of 222?W?m?2.¶ Given a hot, moist and cloud-free atmosphere, the net absorption of sunlight would slightly exceed the thermal radiation limit. This implies that a cloudless runaway greenhouse, steam atmosphere, would be stable under the present insolation. Earth today has a stable temperate climate (the requirements for which are discussed in the next section) implying a climate bistability with respect to the runaway greenhouse (previously seen in a grey atmosphere model18). Both the solar and thermal calculations represent upper bounds for a pure water atmosphere—clouds could reduce either, moving the bifurcation point.¶ Previous work suggested that the thermal radiation limit does not depend on the presence of non-condensable greenhouse gases2, 9. This is not strictly correct. The radiation limit depends on the minimum absorption cross-section in the 10??m water vapour window; any additional opacity here would raise the ???=?1 surface to a higher altitude that radiates at a lower temperature. As purely theoretical tests, we set 1 each of our atmospheres to be carbon dioxide or ammonia, then 1 of both. The radiation limit decreased by 2?W?m?2 for 1 CO2, 6?W?m?2 for 1 NH3 and 8?W?m?2 for both (Supplementary Fig. S7). Ammonia is one of the strongest absorbers around 10??m, so deeper reductions to the radiation limit seem unlikely.¶ These results are sensitive to the absorption cross-sections used. First, using the most detailed spectral line list for water (we use HITEMP2010 (ref. 19)) and correct Rayleigh scattering cross-sections for water are essential. Using a less comprehensive line list (for example, HITRAN 2008), or Rayleigh scattering for air instead of water, gives erroneous results (Supplementary Figs S3–S6). Relative to previous results, our lower thermal emission and higher solar absorption are due to these absorption coefficient changes and increased spectral resolution. Second, the strength of the water vapour continuum (the smoothly varying absorption in the window regions) is very important. In the infrared, the continuum we use is weaker than indicated by the most recent data20 (Supplementary Fig. S9), so our estimates are conservative and the Simpson–Nakajima limit is probably slightly lower than our estimate. The uncertainty wedge associated with the continuum grows towards shorter wavelengths, and there are no measurements in the visible region. Our (or any other) solar calculations must be regarded as provisional until such measurements are made.¶ Transition to a runaway greenhouse¶ Abstract• Introduction• Pure water atmospheres• Transition to a runaway greenhouse• Other times and other planets• Methods• References• Acknowledgements• Author information• Supplementary information¶ Given that a cloud-free steam atmosphere seems to be a stable state at the present solar constant, one should examine both how the stable temperate climate is maintained on Earth and the conditions that would lead to a runaway greenhouse. Hence, we examined transitional atmospheres (up to 400?K) with the same mass of background gas as Earth and various greenhouse gas inventories (Table 1).¶ Table 1: Greenhouse gas inventory scenarios used in transitional atmospheres.¶ Full table¶ Figures/tables index¶ At 280?K, the surface emits directly to space through the water vapour window (Fig. 3). For surface temperatures above 310?K the temperature of the emitting level remains between 250 and 300?K, regardless of the surface temperature. If greenhouse gases other than water are more abundant, ???=?1 is higher in the absorption bands of these gases and less radiation is emitted overall. However, the relative magnitude of this effect decreases in hotter atmospheres with more water. In flux terms (Fig. 4), for the endmember case of a saturated, cloud-free atmosphere with contemporary surface albedo, the net absorbed solar radiation exceeds thermal emission in all scenarios except that with no greenhouse gases other than water, implying that a runaway greenhouse should occur. As this has manifestly not happened to Earth, we are led to the conclusion that a combination of atmospheric subsaturation and an excess of cloud albedo forcing over cloud greenhouse forcing prevents a runaway greenhouse on Earth today.¶ Figure 3: Spectra of thermal emission level and outgoing thermal radiation for transitional atmospheres.¶ Spectra of thermal emission level and outgoing thermal radiation for transitional atmospheres.¶ Black is baseline case; red is with 5,000?ppmv CO2. a, Altitude where optical depth is unity. Most outgoing thermal radiation is emitted from this level. Background colour is atmospheric temperature. b, Top of atmosphere emission spectra. Solid grey lines are the surface emission for each case. Dotted grey lines are for Planck functions of 220, 250, 280, 310, 340 and 370?K up to the surface temperature. The broad 5–8??m absorption feature is from water and the smaller absorption features at 4.2??m and 15??m are from carbon dioxide.¶ Full size image (296 KB)¶ Previous¶ Figures/tables index¶ Next¶ Figure 4: Top of atmosphere fluxes from transitional atmospheres.¶ Top of atmosphere fluxes from transitional atmospheres.¶ a–c, With a surface albedo of 12. d–f, With a surface albedo of 25. Colours identify the greenhouse gas inventories from Table 1 (black is baseline, blue is pre-industrial, green is RCP 8.5 at 2100, red is extreme anthropogenic and purple is arbitrarily high). Solid lines are atmospheres saturated with water vapour throughout, whereas dashed lines are subsaturated where the saturation mixing ratio is less than 5. Steady-state climates exist where the net outgoing flux is zero, stable where flux increases with temperature and unstable where flux decreases with temperature.¶ Full size image (237 KB)¶ Previous¶ Figures/tables index¶ Next¶ First, we relax the assumption of saturation. Our nominal relative humidity profile (Methods) yields a stable climate only for the case of no additional greenhouse gases, although a marginally stable result was obtained for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations. The assumed relative humidity profile is a source of uncertainty in one-dimensional (1D) models. With convection parameterization in a 1D model, a nonlinear transition from subsaturation to saturation around 310?K was found10, introducing an additional bistability in climate that is not found with climatological relative humidity profiles such as ours10. In Earth’s tropics, columns of dry air prevent a local runaway greenhouse21. Nonetheless, our results indicate that subsaturation alone is probably not sufficient to prevent a runaway greenhouse today (Fig. 4).¶ Thus, we turn our attention to clouds. Today, these give an albedo forcing of 50?W?m?2 and a greenhouse forcing of 26?W?m?2 (ref. 22). Climatological mean top of atmosphere fluxes are 239.4?W?m?2 net solar absorbed and 238.5?W?m?2 outgoing thermal23 (the 0.9?W?m?2 discrepancy is causing global warming). High, cold, clouds have a dominant greenhouse effect (though also reflect). Low cloud has a dominant albedo effect. At first approximation, we simulate this by increasing surface albedo; doubling our 12 albedo approximately represents the low cloud forcing. Our subsaturated pre-industrial cases with present surface temperature and enhanced albedo (Fig. 4) have top of atmosphere solar and thermal fluxes of 263 and 266?W?m?2, reasonably approximating climatology minus high cloud forcing. In all of our scenarios (other than arbitrarily high CO2), there is a stable climate under this assumption. Thus, we can infer that the excess of cloud albedo over cloud greenhouse forcing, in combination with subsaturation, permits stable temperate climate on Earth.¶ The clear-sky fluxes are upper bounds: clouds could reduce either flux, making the runaway more or less likely. Previously9 it was argued that cloud reflection would dominate over cloud greenhouse in an optically thick atmosphere. However, this misses a critical distinction based on the level of the clouds. The atmosphere is more transparent to sunlight than thermal radiation, so ??(solar)?=?1 is at lower altitude than ??(thermal)?=?1, so there are three categories of cloud effect based on these. Below ??(solar)?=?1, clouds will have negligible effect. Between ??(solar)?=?1 and ??(thermal)?=?1, albedo will dominate. Above ??(thermal)?=?1, cloud greenhouse will probably dominate (although reflection may dominate if the clouds are more than four times thicker than the present global mean24). The largest projected increase in the water vapour mixing ratio is in the upper atmosphere (Supplementary Fig. S1), suggesting that high clouds would increase most (although this is speculative). For near-future global warming, the present best estimates are for clouds to exert a positive forcing25 (that is, enhanced greenhouse dominating).¶ Steady-state climates exist where the net flux (thermal minus solar) is zero; stable where the net flux increases with temperature and unstable where it decreases with temperature (Fig. 4). For small greenhouse gas inventories, the outgoing thermal flux overshoots the Simpson–Nakajima limit giving a ‘hump’ of stability; excess thermal emission will give a negative feedback that will restore stable, temperate, climate. Using the subsaturated, 25 albedo runs as a reference, the hump of stability is 24?W?m?2 for pre-industrial, 18?W?m?2 for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 at 2100 and 8?W?m?2 for extreme anthropogenic. With our arbitrarily high greenhouse gas scenario (30,000?ppmv CO2), this vanishes and there is no stable temperate climate. Greenhouse gases do not simply warm the planet, but also lower or remove the energy barrier between temperate climate and a runaway greenhouse.¶ Other times and other planets¶ Abstract• Introduction• Pure water atmospheres• Transition to a runaway greenhouse• Other times and other planets• Methods• References• Acknowledgements• Author information• Supplementary information¶ A runaway greenhouse has manifestly not occurred on post-Hadean Earth—it would have sterilized Earth (there is observer bias). Palaeoclimate gives us a sample of conditions where a runaway greenhouse did not occur, but cannot tell us the size of any safety margin. The so-called ‘hothouse’ climate of the Eocene is the most useful constraint for anthropogenic change. With the solar constant 1 less than today and a few thousand ppmv CO2, the mean temperature was  10?K warmer than today26. With CO2 and temperature both higher then than we expect in the foreseeable future27, this implies that an anthropogenic runaway greenhouse is unlikely. Deglaciaton from Neoproterozoic snowball Earth events probably required that  10 of the atmosphere was carbon dioxide. The solar constant was 6 less than today, so net solar radiation absorbed would have been 12?W?m?2 less and climate not yet bistable. By contrast, deglaciation from a snowball Earth event in the future might trigger a runaway greenhouse.¶ Venus probably experienced a runaway greenhouse in the past, evident now in enrichment of D/H in its atmosphere7, 28. Previous work suggested that early Venus was close to the threshold for a runaway greenhouse9—our new lower radiation limit and enhanced solar absorption imply that, given the same amount of nitrogen in the atmosphere as Earth, Venus may not have had a habitable period. However, if early Venus had at least as much nitrogen in its atmosphere as it does now this would have had a protective effect (Fig. 5). More nitrogen gives more Rayleigh scattering, decreasing absorbed solar radiation in a transitional atmosphere.¶ Figure 5: Top of atmosphere fluxes from an ideal gas atmosphere with a varying amount of background gas (nitrogen).¶ Top of atmosphere fluxes from an ideal gas atmosphere with a varying amount of background gas (nitrogen).¶ a, Solar; b, thermal; and c, net flux. All runs for baseline (no non-condensable greenhouse gas) with surface albedo of 12. Colours are: blue for 0.1?bar, turquoise for 0.33?bar, black for 1?bar, orange for 3?bar and red for 10?bar.¶ Full size image (401 KB)¶ Previous¶ Figures/tables index¶ As the solar constant increases with time, Earth’s future is analogous to Venus’s past. We expect a runaway greenhouse on Earth 1.5 billion years hence if water is the only greenhouse gas, or sooner if there are others. Earth’s atmospheric nitrogen inventory has probably changed with time29. Any future decrease would lessen the protective effect of Rayleigh scattering and hasten a runaway greenhouse (in contrast to previous arguments30).¶ Our pure water calculations were aimed at hot atmospheres, but should also apply to water worlds, analogous to a warm version of Jupiter’s moon Europa. In the absence of Rayleigh scattering from background gas, planetary albedo would be lower than Earth. Under Earth’s insolation, without clouds and with 12 surface albedo (the average for Earth, about twice that of sea water), there is no stable temperate climate and a runaway greenhouse would always ensue. Arbitrarily increasing surface albedo to 25 (a proxy for low cloud reflection) gives a marginally stable state at 275?K. With a mean surface temperature this low, ice albedo feedback would probably lead to low-latitude glaciation (snowball Earth-like). A transient warming sufficient to melt the ice would probably cause a transition directly to a runaway greenhouse. Unless mediated by other atmospheric constituents or clouds, there would be no stable temperate climate state.¶ The runaway greenhouse sets a hard limit for the inner edge of the circumstellar habitable zone15, 16. This classic definition neglects multiple climate equilibria so may be misleading. Three major stable climate states exist at the same solar constant: snowball Earth (at least transiently reduced habitability), temperate (habitable) or runaway greenhouse steam atmosphere (sterilizing)18. Changes to clouds today may be sufficient to transition from temperate to either other state. Determining surface temperature requires knowledge of the atmospheric state and history: it is not possible to determine a habitability a priori from incident stellar radiation.¶ The thermal radiation limit depends weakly on the mass of the planet (Supplementary Fig. S8). Everything else being equal, a Mars-size planet would be more susceptible to a runaway greenhouse and a so-called super-Earth less11.¶ Revisiting the classic planetary sciences problem of the runaway greenhouse with modern modelling tools, we have shown that the thermal radiation limit is lower and that more solar radiation is absorbed. The runaway greenhouse may be much easier to initiate than previously thought. A renewed modelling effort is needed, addressing both Earth and planetary science applications. We have begun this process with a single column, clear-sky model, which has allowed us to advance the core radiative transfer aspect of the problem. Reference calculations are available as Supplementary Information to permit future model testing. Our work should be followed with cloudy column models and then, ultimately, general circulation models (to address the cloud and relative humidity distributions). The latter represents a grand challenge in climate modelling, for which present-generation models may be insufficient: there are difficulties associated with radiative transfer, clouds and dynamics (with a major component being condensable), and no empirical comparison cases.
These studies use a sound method
Somerville 11 – Professor of Oceanography @ UCSD
Richard Somerville, Distinguished Professor Emeritus and Research Professor at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, Coordinating Lead Author in Working Group I for the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3-8-2011, “CLIMATE SCIENCE AND EPA'S GREENHOUSE GAS REGULATIONS,” CQ Congressional Testimony, Lexis
Although the expert community is in wide agreement on the basic results of climate change science, as assessed in AR4 and The Copenhagen Diagnosis, much confusion exists among the general public and politicians in many countries, as polling data convincingly shows. In my opinion, many people need to learn more about the nature of junk or fake science, so they will be better equipped to recognize and reject it. There are a number of warning signs that can help identify suspicious claims. One is failure to rely on and cite published research results from peer- reviewed journals. Trustworthy science is not something that appears first on television or the Internet. Reputable scientists first announce the results of their research by peer-reviewed publication in well-regarded scientific journals. Peer review is not a guarantee of excellent science, but the lack of it is a red flag. Peer review is a necessary rather than a sufficient criterion. Another warning sign is a lack of relevant credentials on the part of the person making assertions, especially education and research experience in the specialized field in question. For example, it is not essential to have earned a Ph. D. degree or to hold a university professorship. It is important, however, that the person be qualified, not in some general broad scientific area, such as physics or chemistry, but in the relevant specialty. Accomplishments and even great distinction in one area of science do not qualify anybody to speak authoritatively in a very different area. We would not ask even an expert cardiologist for advice on, say, dentistry. One should inquire whether the person claiming expertise in some area of climate science has done first-person research on the topic under consideration and published it in reputable peer-reviewed journals. Is the person actively participating in the research area in question, or simply criticizing it from the vantage point of an outsider? One should be suspicious of a lack of detailed familiarity with the specific scientific topic and its research literature. Good science takes account of what is already known and acknowledges and builds on earlier research by others. Other warning signs include a blatant failure to be objective and to consider all relevant research results, both pro and con a given position. Scientific honesty and integrity require wide- ranging and thorough consideration of all the evidence that might bear on a particular question. Choosing to make selective choices among competing evidence, so as to emphasize those results that support a given position, while ignoring or dismissing any findings that do not support it, is a practice known as "cherry picking" and is a hallmark of poor science or pseudo-science. Mixing science with ideology or policy or personalities is never justified in research. Scientific validity has nothing to do with political viewpoints. There are no Republican or Democratic thermometers. Whether a given politician agrees or disagrees with a research finding is absolutely unimportant scientifically. Science can usefully inform the making of policy, but only if policy considerations have not infected the science. Similarly, one should always be alert to the risk of bias due to political viewpoints, ideological preferences, or connections with interested parties. All sources of funding, financial interests and other potential reasons for bias should be openly disclosed. Finally, we must always be alert for any hint of delusions of grandeur on the part of those who would insist that they themselves are correct, while nearly everyone else in the entire field of climate science is badly mistaken. Scientific progress is nearly always incremental, with very few exceptions. Occasionally, an unknown lone genius in a humble position, such as the young Einstein doing theoretical physics while working as a clerk in a patent office, does indeed revolutionize a scientific field, dramatically overthrowing conventional wisdom. However, such events are exceedingly rare, and claims to be such a lone genius deserve the most severe scrutiny. For every authentic Einstein, there must be thousands of outright charlatans, as well as many more ordinary mortals who are simply very badly mistaken.
Adherence to existing multilateral agreements avoids 4 degree warming – anything higher is catastrophic
Kim 12 – PhD in Anthropology @ Harvard, former president of Dartmouth, Now President of the World Bank
(Jim Yong, “Turn Down the Heat,” p. ix)
The 4°C scenarios are devastating: the inundation of coastal cities; increasing risks for food produc- tion potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wet- ter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems.¶ And most importantly, a 4°C world is so different from the current one that it comes with high uncer- tainty and new risks that threaten our ability to anticipate and plan for future adaptation needs.¶ The lack of action on climate change not only risks putting prosperity out of reach of millions of people in the developing world, it threatens to roll back decades of sustainable development.¶ It is clear that we already know a great deal about the threat before us. The science is unequivocal that humans are the cause of global warming, and major changes are already being observed: global mean warming is 0.8°C above pre industrial levels; oceans have warmed by 0.09°C since the 1950s and are acidi- fying; sea levels rose by about 20 cm since pre-industrial times and are now rising at 3.2 cm per decade; an exceptional number of extreme heat waves occurred in the last decade; major food crop growing areas are increasingly affected by drought.¶ Despite the global community’s best intentions to keep global warming below a 2°C increase above pre-industrial climate, higher levels of warming are increasingly likely. Scientists agree that countries’ cur- rent United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emission pledges and commitments would most likely result in 3.5 to 4°C warming. And the longer those pledges remain unmet, the more likely a 4°C world becomes.¶ Data and evidence drive the work of the World Bank Group. Science reports, including those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, informed our decision to ramp up work on these issues, leading to, a World Development Report on climate change designed to improve our understanding of the implications of a warming planet; a Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change, and a report on Inclusive Green Growth. The World Bank is a leading advocate for ambitious action on climate change, not only because it is a moral imperative, but because it makes good economic sense.¶ But what if we fail to ramp up efforts on mitigation? What are the implications of a 4°C world? We commissioned this report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics to help us understand the state of the science and the potential impact on development in such a world.¶ It would be so dramatically different from today’s world that it is hard to describe accurately; much relies on complex projections and interpretations.¶ We are well aware of the uncertainty that surrounds these scenarios and we know that different scholars and studies sometimes disagree on the degree of risk. But the fact that such scenarios cannot be discarded is sufficient to justify strengthening current climate change policies. Finding ways to avoid that scenario is vital for the health and welfare of communities around the world. While every region of the world will be affected, the poor and most vulnerable would be hit hardest.¶ A 4°C world can, and must, be avoided.¶ The World Bank Group will continue to be a strong advocate for international and regional agreements and increasing climate financing. We will redouble our efforts to support fast growing national initiatives to mitigate carbon emissions and build adaptive capacity as well as support inclusive green growth and climate smart development. Our work on inclusive green growth has shown that—through more efficiency and smarter use of energy and natural resources—many opportunities exist to drastically reduce the climate impact of development, without slowing down poverty alleviation and economic growth.¶ This report is a stark reminder that climate change affects everything. The solutions don’t lie only in climate finance or climate projects. The solutions lie in effective risk management and ensuring all our work, all our thinking, is designed with the threat of a 4°C degree world in mind. The World Bank Group will step up to the challenge.
IMPACTS
Warming risks extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)
The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2.5-4.C above pre-industrial levels, depending on the scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, the low end of the likely range is 1.goC, and in the worst 'business as usual' projections, which actual emissions have been matching, the range of likely warming runs from 3.1--7.1°C. Even keeping emissions at constant 2000 levels (which have already been exceeded), global temperature would still be expected to reach 1.2°C (O'9""1.5°C)above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century." Without early and severe reductions in emissions, the effects of climate change in the second half of the twenty-first century are likely to be catastrophic for the stability and security of countries in the developing world - not to mention the associated human tragedy. Climate change could even undermine the strength and stability of emerging and advanced economies, beyond the knock-on effects on security of widespread state failure and collapse in developing countries.' And although they have been condemned as melodramatic and alarmist, many informed observers believe that unmitigated climate change beyond the end of the century could pose an existential threat to civilisation." What is certain is that there is no precedent in human experience for such rapid change or such climatic conditions, and even in the best case adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.
Warming destroys all human and non-human life on earth
Brandenberg 99 – PhD, Physicist
(Dr. John, Physicist, Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232-233)
The world goes on its merry way and fossil fuel use continues to power it.  Rather than making painful or politically difficult choices such as inventing in fusion or enacting a rigorous plan of conserving, the industrial world chooses to muddle through the temperature climb.  Let’s imagine that America and Europe are too worried about economic dislocation to change course. The ozone hole expands, driven by a monstrous synergy with global warming that puts more catalytic ice crystals into the stratosphere, but this affects the far north and south and not the major nations’ heartlands.  The seas rise, the tropics roast but the media networks no longer cover it.  The Amazon rainforest becomes the Amazon desert.  Oxygen levels fall, but profits rise for those who can provide it in bottles. An equatorial high pressure zone forms, forcing drought in central Africa and Brazil, the Nile dries up and the monsoons fall.  Then inevitably, at some unlucky point in time, a major unexpected event occurs—a major volcanic eruption, a sudden and dramatic shift in ocean circulation or a large asteroid impact (those who think freakish accidents do not occur have paid little attention to life on Mars), or a nuclear war that starts between Pakistan and India and escalates to involve China and Russia… Suddenly, the gradual climb in global temperatures goes on a mad excursion as the oceans warm and release large amounts of dissolved carbon dioxide from their lower depths into the atmosphere.  Oxygen levels go down as oxygen replaces lost oceanic carbon dioxide.  Asthma cases double and then double again.  Now a third of the world fears breathing.  As the oceans dump carbon dioxide, the greenhouse effect increases, which further warms the oceans, causing them to dump even more carbon.  Because of the heat, plants die and burn in enormous fires which release more carbon dioxide, and the oceans evaporate, adding more water vapor to the greenhouse.  Soon, we are in what is termed a runaway greenhouse effect, as happened to Venus eons ago.  The last two surviving scientists inevitably argue, one telling the other, “See, I told you the missing sink was in the ocean!” Earth, as we know it, dies.  After this Venusian excursion in temperatures, the oxygen disappears into the soil, the oceans evaporate and are lost and the dead Earth loses its ozone layer completely. Earth is too far from the Sun for it to be a second Venus for long.  Its atmosphere is slowly lost – as is its water—because of the ultraviolet bombardment breaking up all the molecules apart from carbon dioxide.  As the atmosphere becomes thin, the Earth becomes colder.  For a short while temperatures are nearly normal, but the ultraviolet sears any life that tries to make a comeback.  The carbon dioxide thins out to form a thin veneer with a few wispy clouds and dust devils. Earth becomes the second Mars – red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving.
Emissions cause ocean acidification – extinction
Romm 12 – physicist and climate expert, Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress
(Joseph J., “Science: Ocean Acidifying so fast that it threatens humanity’s ability to feed itself”, 3/2/12; http://earthlawcenter.org/news/headline/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanitys-ability-to-feed-itself/)
The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they did during four major extinctions in the last 300 million years, when natural pulses of carbon sent global temperatures soaring, says a new study in Science. The study is the first of its kind to survey the geologic record for evidence of ocean acidification over this vast time period. “What we’re doing today really stands out,” said lead author Bärbel Hönisch, a paleoceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “We know that life during past ocean acidification events was not wiped out—new species evolved to replace those that died off. But if industrial carbon emissions continue at the current pace, we may lose organisms we care about—coral reefs, oysters, salmon.” James Zachos, a paleoceanographer at University of California, Santa Cruz, with a core of sediment from some 56 million years ago, when the oceans underwent acidification that could be an analog to ocean changes today. That’s the news release from a major 21-author Science paper, “The Geological Record of Ocean Acidification” (subs. req’d). We knew from a 2010 Nature Geoscience study that the oceans are now acidifying 10 times faster today than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred. But this study looked back over 300 million and found that “the unprecedented rapidity of CO2 release currently taking place” has put marine life at risk in a frighteningly unique way: … the current rate of (mainly fossil fuel) CO2 release stands out as capable of driving a combination and magnitude of ocean geochemical changes potentially unparalleled in at least the last 300 My of Earth history, raising the possibility that we are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change. That is to say, it’s not just that acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown “by end of century” as a 2010 Geological Society study put it. We are also warming the ocean and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentration. That is a recipe for mass extinction. A 2009 Nature Geoscience study found that ocean dead zones “devoid of fish and seafood” are poised to expand and “remain for thousands of years.“ And remember, we just learned from a 2012 new Nature Climate Change study that carbon dioxide is “driving fish crazy” and threatening their survival. Here’s more on the new study: The oceans act like a sponge to draw down excess carbon dioxide from the air; the gas reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid, which over time is neutralized by fossil carbonate shells on the seafloor. But if CO2 goes into the oceans too quickly, it can deplete the carbonate ions that corals, mollusks and some plankton need for reef and shell-building. That is what is happening now. In a review of hundreds of paleoceanographic studies, a team of researchers from five countries found evidence for only one period in the last 300 million years when the oceans changed even remotely as fast as today: the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM, some 56 million years ago. In the early 1990s, scientists extracting sediments from the seafloor off Antarctica found a layer of mud from this period wedged between thick deposits of white plankton fossils. In a span of about 5,000 years, they estimated, a mysterious surge of carbon doubled atmospheric concentrations, pushed average global temperatures up by about 6 degrees C, and dramatically changed the ecological landscape. The result: carbonate plankton shells littering the seafloor dissolved, leaving the brown layer of mud. As many as half of all species of benthic foraminifers, a group of single-celled organisms that live at the ocean bottom, went extinct, suggesting that organisms higher in the food chain may have also disappeared, said study co-author Ellen Thomas, a paleoceanographer at Yale University who was on that pivotal Antarctic cruise. “It’s really unusual that you lose more than 5 to 10 percent of species over less than 20,000 years,” she said. “It’s usually on the order of a few percent over a million years.” During this time, scientists estimate, ocean pH—a measure of acidity–may have fallen as much as 0.45 units. (As pH falls, acidity rises.) In the last hundred years, atmospheric CO2 has risen about 30 percent, to 393 parts per million, and ocean pH has fallen by 0.1 unit, to 8.1–an acidification rate at least 10 times faster than 56 million years ago, says Hönisch. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that pH may fall another 0.3 units by the end of the century,to 7.8, raising the possibility that we may soon see ocean changes similar to those observed during the PETM. More catastrophic events have shaken earth before, but perhaps not as quickly. The study finds two other times of potential ocean acidification: the extinctions triggered by massive volcanism at the end of the Permian and Triassic eras, about 252 million and 201 million years ago respectively. But the authors caution that the timing and chemical changes of these events is less certain. Because most ocean sediments older than 180 million years have been recycled back into the deep earth, scientists have fewer records to work with. During the end of the Permian, about 252 million years ago, massive volcanic eruptions in present-day Russia led to a rise in atmospheric carbon, and the extinction of 96 percent of marine life. Scientists have found evidence for ocean dead zones and the survival of organisms able to withstand carbonate-poor seawater and high blood-carbon levels, but so far they have been unable to reconstruct changes in ocean pH or carbonate. At the end of the Triassic, about 201 million years ago, a second burst of mass volcanism doubled atmospheric carbon. Coral reefs collapsed and many sea creatures vanished. Noting that tropical species fared the worst, some scientists question if global warming rather than ocean acidification was the main killer at this time. The effects of ocean acidification today are overshadowed for now by other problems, ranging from sewage pollution and hotter summer temperatures that threaten corals with disease and bleaching. However, scientists trying to isolate the effects of acidic water in the lab have shown that lower pH levels can harm a range of marine life, from reef and shell-building organisms to the tiny snails favored by salmon. In a recent study, scientists from Stony Brook University found that the larvae of bay scallops and hard clams grow best at pre-industrial pH levels, while their shells corrode at the levels projected for 2100. Off the U.S. Pacific Northwest, the death of oyster larvae has recently been linked to the upwelling of acidic water there. In parts of the ocean acidified by underwater volcanoes venting carbon dioxide, scientists have seen alarming signs of what the oceans could be like by 2100. In a 2011 study of coral reefs off Papua New Guinea, scientists writing in the journal Nature Climate Change found that when pH dropped to 7.8, reef diversity declined by as much as 40 percent. Other studies have found that clownfish larvae raised in the lab lose their ability to sniff out predators and find their way home when pH drops below 7.8. “It’s not a problem that can be quickly reversed,” said Christopher Langdon, a biological oceanographer at the University of Miami who co-authored the study on Papua New Guinea reefs. “Once a species goes extinct it’s gone forever. We’re playing a very dangerous game.”
Apocalyptic environment rhetoric key to activism and individual changes
Veldman, PhD Candidate Religion and Nature at U of Florida, ’12 (Robin- National Foundation Fellow at the Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship, Spring, “Narrating the Environmental Apocalypse: How Imagining the End Facilitates Moral Reasoning Among Environmental Activists” Ethics and the Environment, Vol 17 No 1, ProjectMuse)
Environmental Apocalypticism and Activism As we saw in the introduction, critics often argue that apocalyptic rhetoric induces feelings of hopelessness or fatalism. While it certainly does for some people, in this section I will present evidence that apocalypticism also often goes hand in hand with activism.¶ Some of the strongest evidence of a connection between environmental apocalypticism and activism comes from a national survey that examined whether Americans perceived climate change to be dangerous. As part of his analysis, Anthony Leiserowitz identified several “interpretive communities,” which had consistent demographic characteristics but varied in their levels of risk perception. The group who perceived the risk to be the greatest, which he labeled “alarmists,” described climate change End Page 5 using apocalyptic language, such as “Bad…bad…bad…like after nuclear war…no vegetation,” “Heat waves, it’s gonna kill the world,” and “Death of the planet” (2005, 1440). Given such language, this would seem to be a reasonable way to operationalize environmental apocalypticism. If such apocalypticism encouraged fatalism, we would expect alarmists to be less likely to have engaged in environmental behavior compared to groups with moderate or low levels of concern. To the contrary, however, Leiserowitz found that alarmists “were significantly more likely to have taken personal action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions” (ibid.) than respondents who perceived climate change to pose less of a threat. Interestingly, while one might expect such radical views to appeal only to a tiny minority, Leiserowitz found that a respectable eleven percent of Americans fell into this group (ibid).¶ Further supporting Leiserowitz’s findings, in a separate national survey conducted in 2008, Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz found that a group they labeled “the Alarmed” (again, due to their high levels of concern about climate change) “are the segment most engaged in the issue of global warming. They are very convinced it is happening, human-caused, and a serious and urgent threat. The Alarmed are already making changes in their own lives and support an aggressive national response” (2009, 3, emphasis added). This group was far more likely than people with lower levels of concern over climate change to have engaged in consumer activism (by rewarding companies that support action to reduce global warming with their business, for example) or to have contacted elected officials to express their concern. Additionally, the authors found that “when asked which reason for action was most important to them personally, the Alarmed were most likely to select preventing the destruction of most life on the planet (31)” (2009, 31)—a finding suggesting that for many in this group it is specifically the desire to avert catastrophe, rather than some other motivation, that encourages pro-environmental behavior. Taken together, these and other studies (cf. Semenza et al. 2008 and DerKarabetia, Stephenson, and Poggi 1996) provide important evidence that many of those who think environmental problems pose a severe threat practice some form of activism, rather than giving way to fatalistic resignation.¶ National surveys give a good overview of the association between apocalypticism and activism among the general public, but they do not End Page 6 provide sufficient ethnographic detail. To complement this broader picture I now turn to case studies, which provide greater insight into how adherents themselves understand what motivates their environmental behavior.¶ When seeking a subset of environmentalists with apocalyptic beliefs, the radical wing is an obvious place to look. For example, many Earth First!ers believe that the collapse of industrial society is inevitable (Taylor 1994). At the same time, the majority are actively committed to preventing ecological disaster. As Earth First! co-founder Howie Wolke acknowledged, the two are directly connected: “As ecological calamity unravels the living fabric of the Earth, environmental radicalism has become both common and necessary” (1989, 29).3 This logic underlies efforts to preserve wilderness areas, which many radical environmentalists believe will serve as reservoirs of genetic diversity, helping to restore the planet after industrial society collapses (Taylor 1994). In addition to encouraging activism to preserve wilderness, apocalyptic beliefs also motivate practices such as “monkeywrenching,” or ecological sabotage, civil disobedience, and the more conventional “paper monkeywrenching” (lobbying, engaging in public information campaigns to shift legislative priorities, or using lawsuits when these tactics fail). Ultimately, while there are disagreements over what strategies will best achieve their desired goals, for most radical environmentalists, apocalypticism and activism are bound closely together.¶ The connection between belief in impending disaster and environmental activism holds true for Wiccans as well. During fieldwork in the southeastern United States, for example, Shawn Arthur reported meeting “dozens of Wiccans who professed their apocalyptic millenarian beliefs to anyone who expressed interest, yet many others only quietly agreed with them without any further elaboration” (2008, 201). For this group, the coming disaster was understood as divine retribution, the result of an angry Earth Goddess preparing to punish humans for squandering her ecological gifts (Arthur 2008, 203). In light of Gaia’s impending revenge, Arthur found that Wiccans advocated both spiritual and material forms of activism. For example, practices such as Goddess worship, the use of herbal remedies for healing, and awareness of the body and its energies were considered important for initiating a more harmonious relationship with the earth (Arthur 2008, 207). As for material activism, Arthur notes End Page 7 that the notion of environmental apocalypse played a key role in encouraging pro-environmental behavior:¶ images of immanent sic ecological crisis and apocalyptic change often were utilized as motivating factors for developing an environmentally and ecologically conscious worldview; for stressing the importance of working for the Earth through a variety of practices, including environmental activism, garbage collecting, recycling, composting, and religious rituals; for learning sustainable living skills; and for developing a special relationship with the world as a divine entity. (2008, 212)¶ What these studies and my own experiences in the environmentalist milieu4 suggest is that people who make a serious commitment to engaging in environmentally friendly behavior, people who move beyond making superficial changes to making substantial and permanent ones, are quite likely to subscribe to some form of the apocalyptic narrative.¶ All this is not to say that apocalypticism directly or inevitably causes activism, or that believing catastrophe is imminent is the only reason people become activists. However, it is to say that activism and apocalypticism are associated for some people, and that this association is not arbitrary, for there is something uniquely powerful and compelling about the apocalyptic narrative. Plenty of people will hear it and ignore it, or find it implausible, or simply decide that if the situation really is so dire there is nothing they can do to prevent it from continuing to deteriorate. Yet to focus only on the ability of apocalyptic rhetoric to induce apathy, indifference or reactance is to ignore the evidence that it also fuels quite the opposite—grave concern, activism, and sometimes even outrage. It is also to ignore the movement’s history. From Silent Spring (Carson 1962 2002) to The Limits to Growth (Meadows et al 1972) to The End of Nature (McKibben 1989), apocalyptic arguments have held a prominent place within environmental literature, topping best-seller lists and spreading the message far and wide that protecting the environment should be a societal priority. Thus, while it is not a style of argument that will be effective in convincing everyone to commit to the environmental cause (see Feinberg and Willer 2011), there does appear to be a close relationship between apocalyptic belief and activism among a certain minority. The next section explores the implications of that relationship further. End Page 8¶ The Apocalyptic Narrative as a Framework for Moral Deliberation¶ In discussing how apocalypticism functions within the environmental community, it will be helpful to analyze it as a type of narrative. I do so because the domain of narrative includes both the stories that people read and write, as well as those they tell and live by. By using narratives as data, scholars can analyze experiential and textual sources simultaneously (Polkinghorne 1988; Riessman 2000).¶ To analyze environmental apocalypticism as a type of narrative is not to suggest that apocalyptics’ claims about the future are fictional. Rather, it is to highlight that the facts to which environmentalists appeal have been organized with particular goals in mind, goals which have necessarily shaped the selection and presentation of those facts. Compelling environmental writers do not simply list every known fact pertaining to the natural world, but instead select certain findings and place them within a larger interpretive framework. Alone, each fact has little meaning, but when woven into a larger narrative, a message emerges. This process of narrativization is essential if a message is to be persuasive (Killingsworth and Palmer 2000, 197), and has occurred not only in the rapidly expanding genre of environmental nonfiction, but in much scientific writing about the environment as well (Harré, Brockmeier, and Mühlhäusler 1999, 69).¶ What defines narratives as such is their beginning-middle-end structure, their ability to “describe an action that begins, continues over a well-defined period of time, and finally draws to a definite close” (Cronon 1992, 1367). Here I will focus on the last of these elements, the ending, because anything we can learn about how endings function within narratives in general will be applicable to the apocalypse, the most final ending of all.¶ An ending is essential in order for a story to be complete, but there is more to it than this. Endings are also key because they establish a story’s moral, the lesson it is supposed to impart upon the reader. In other words, to know the moral of the story, auditors must know the consequences of the actions depicted therein, so there can be no moral without an ending. To take a simple example, when we hear the story of the shepherd boy who falsely claims that a wolf is attacking his flock of sheep in order to entertain himself at his community’s expense, what makes the lesson clear is that when a wolf does attack his flock, the disenchanted town members refuse to come to his aid. By clearly illustrating how telling lies can have End Page 9 unpleasant consequences for the perpetrator, the ending reveals the moral that lying is wrong. As Cronon explains, it is “the difference between beginning and end that gives us our chance to extract a moral from the rhetorical landscape” (1992, 1370).¶ Endings play a similar role in environmental stories. In Al Gore’s book Earth in the Balance (1992), for example, he devotes over a third of the book’s pages to presenting scientific evidence that disaster is imminent.5 As he sums it up, “Modern industrial civilization…is colliding violently with our planet’s ecological system. The ferocity of its assault on the earth is breathtaking, and the horrific consequences are occurring so quickly as to defy our capacity to recognize them” (1992, 269). He builds this argument so carefully precisely because if the ending does not seem credible, the moral he wants readers to draw from the story will not be compelling. If his readers are not convinced that the ending to this story of ecological misbehavior will be a debacle of colossal proportions, they will not become convinced that they need to dramatically alter their ecological behavior. Thus the vision of future catastrophe that Gore presents provides a crucial vantage point from which the present environmental situation can be understood as the result of a grand moral failure, and Gore’s readers are made aware of their obligations in light of it. Gore himself appreciates the importance of this recognition, arguing that “whether we realize it or not, we are now engaged in an epic battle to right the balance of our earth, and the tide of this battle will turn only when the majority of people in the world become sufficiently aroused by a shared sense of urgent danger to join an all-out effort” (1992, 269, emphasis added). Here, as in so many other stories, the ending must be in place for the moral to become clear.¶ To say that endings are essential in order for stories to have morals is already to hint that stories alter behavior, that they can encourage action in the real world even as they invoke an imaginary one. This much is clear from Earth in the Balance (1992): Gore does not just want people to grasp a moral, to perceive some ethic in the abstract—he wants them change their behavior in the here and now. In constructing a narrative with this goal in mind, he is banking on the ability of powerful stories to motivate social change, to be, as Cronon puts it, “our chief moral compass in the world” (1992, 1375).¶ Mark Johnson’s insightful synthesis of cognitive science and philosophy helps explain further how this process of moral guidance occurs. For End Page 10 Johnson, narrative is fundamental to our experience of reality, “the most comprehensive means we have for constructing temporal syntheses that bind together and unify our past, present, and future into more or less meaningful patterns” (1993, 174). Narratives are also critical to our ability to reason morally, an activity which Johnson asserts is fundamentally imaginative. In this view, we use stories to imagine ourselves in different scenarios, exploring and evaluating the consequences of different possible actions in order to determine the right one. Moral deliberation is thus¶ …an imaginative exploration of the possibilities for constructive action within a present situation. We have a problem to solve here and now (e.g., ‘What am I to do?’…. ‘How should I treat others?’), and we must try out various possible continuations of our narrative in search of the one that seems best to resolve the indeterminacy of our present situation. (1993, 180)¶ Put another way, what cognitive science has revealed is that from an empirical perspective the process of moral deliberation entails constructing narratives rooted in our unique history and circumstances, rather than applying universal principles (such as Kant’s categorical imperative) to particular cases. That we use narratives to reason morally is not a result of conscious choice but of how human cognition works. That is, insofar as we experience ourselves as temporal beings, a narrative framework is necessary to organize, explain, and ultimately justify the many individual decisions that over time become a life. Formal principles may be useful in unambiguous textbook cases, but in real life “we can almost never decide (reflectively) how to act without considering the ways in which we can continue our narrative construction of our situation” (Johnson 1993, 160). Empirically speaking, “our moral reasoning is situated within our narrative understanding” (Johnson 1993, 180, italics in original).¶ The observation that people use narratives to reason morally may help explain the association between environmental apocalypticism and activism. The function of the apocalyptic narrative may be that it helps adherents determine how to act by providing a storyline from which they can imaginatively sample, enabling them to assess the consequences of their actions. In order to answer the question, “Should I drive or walk to the store?” for example, they can reason, “If I walk, that will reduce my carbon footprint, which will help keep the ice caps from melting, saving humans and other species.” It is their access to this narrative of impending End Page 11 disaster that makes such reasoning possible, for it provides a simple framework within which people can consider and eventually arrive at some conclusion about their moral obligations.6 More broadly, it can guide entire lives by providing a narrative frame of reference that imbues the individual’s experiences with meaning. For example, it is the context of looming anthropogenic apocalypse which suggests that dedicating one’s life to achieving a healthier relationship with the natural world is a worthwhile endeavor. Absent the apocalypse, choices such as limiting one’s travel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, becoming vegetarian, working in the environmental sector (often for less compensation), or growing one’s own food could seem to be meaningless sacrifices. Within this context, on the other hand, such choices become essential features of the quest to live a moral life.¶ The apocalyptic narrative is but one of many ways to tell the environmental story, yet it is one that seems particularly well-suited to encouraging pro-environmental behavior. First, the apocalyptic ending discloses certain everyday decisions as moral decisions. Without the narrative context of impending disaster, decisions such as whether to drive or walk to the store would be merely matters of convenience or preference. In the context of potentially disastrous consequences for valued places, people, and organisms, by contrast, such decisions become matters of right and wrong. Second, putting information about the environment into narrative form enables apocalyptics to link complex global environmental processes to their own lives, a perceptual technique Thomashow describes as “bringing the biosphere home” (2002). Developing this skill is essential because without that felt sense of connection to their own lived experience, people are much less likely to become convinced that it is incumbent upon them to act (2002, 2). Finally, the sheer magnitude of the impending disaster increases the feeling of responsibility to make good on one’s moral intuitions. By locating individuals within a drama of ultimate concern, the narrative frames their choices as cosmically important, and this feeling of urgency then helps to convert moral deliberation into action. With this conceptual overview in place, we can now examine more closely what the relationship between apocalypticism and moral reasoning looks like in practice. End Page 12
FINALLY – The plan solves warming
Congress has requested an increase in green financing, but the export-import bank has fallen short – increased financing is key to CLIMATE LEADERSHIP
Pacific Environment 12 - protects the living environment of the Pacific Rim, mentors, trains, campaigns, builds networks, and provides direct financial support to activist leaders and non-governmental organizations to help them protect their communities from environmental and health threats and hold international governments, corporations, and financing institutions accountable for their policies and actions
(“FACT SHEET: U.S. Export-Import Bank’s Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Financing,” http://pacificenvironment.org/downloads/FACT20SHEET:20ExIm20Bank20fossil20fuel20financing.pdf)
Ex-Im Bank’s fast-growing fossil fuel financing undercuts President Obama’s pledges to cut fossil ¶ fuel subsidies and to advance U.S. climate change-related diplomatic efforts abroad.¶ Ex-Im Bank’s outdated bias toward fossil fuel financing is made even more egregious by the fact ¶ that clean energy exports can produce roughly three times more American jobs than fossil fuel ¶ related projects per $1 million in investment.¶ Worse, in July 2010, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued a report which ¶ found that Ex-Im Bank has failed to meet a Congressional directive to allocate 10 of its total ¶ annual financing to renewable energy and energy efficient end-use technologies. Among its ¶ chief criticisms, GAO found that Ex-Im Bank is failing to follow strategic planning practices and ¶ allocate sufficient staff and other agency resources to promote renewable energy and energy ¶ efficiency.¶ Ex-Im Bank’s fast-growing fossil fuel subsidies worsen climate change, damage world-class ¶ environmental and cultural resources, and harm human health and well-being. Ex-Im Bank ¶ should redirect public financing to the fast-growing renewable energy sector—alleviating ¶ climate change pressures, spurring sustainable job growth, and quickening the distribution of ¶ clean energy technologies across the world.
Greening the bank is key – provides leverage to promote adherence to multilateral climate agreements
Gong 6 – JD @ Berkeley, BA @ Princeton
(Karis Anne, “EXPORTING SUSTAINABILITY: A proposal to reduce the climate impact of the Export?Import Bank of the United States,” http://www.princeton.edu/~mauzeral/wws402d_s06/FinalDraftKarisGong.pdf)
First, climate change is a result of aggregate emissions and aggregate concentrations ¶ of GHGs in the atmosphere. Small fluctuations may not seem to make a large difference. ¶ However, as in the tragedy of the commons where the individual cost of grazing is only a ¶ fraction of the individual benefit and where such cost-benefit analysis leads to over-grazing ¶ and the collapse of the commons, each additional unit of GHGs emitted contributes to ¶ untenable aggregate levels of GHGs.174 Thus, to the extent that the Bank is responsible for ¶ some of the emissions, as is the rest of the world, the Bank is responsible for cutting some ¶ of the emissions, an action required for stabilizing atmospheric levels of GHGs. In short, it ¶ has both the opportunity and responsibility to be environmentally conscientious. ¶ Second, the Bank’s role in the global economy is unique. Since it connects the ¶ products and expertise of the developed world to the needs of the developing world, it has ¶ the opportunity to engage developing countries in responding to climate change. One of the ¶ main obstacles in international climate negotiations continues to be the tension between ¶ economic development and environmental protection, which draw from concerns for ¶ “economic justice.”175¶ Developing countries understand that “today’s rich countries moved first from ¶ agriculture to manufacturing industries which use resources intensively, and later to services ¶ and less polluting types of manufacturing,”176 and many hold that it is better to “pollute now ¶ and clean up later.”177 They also recognize that the people in developed countries have ¶ emitted and continue emitting high levels of greenhouse gases. For many heads of state in the ¶ developing world, justice demands that the developed countries bear the brunt of addressing ¶ climate change. The Indian delegate to the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on ¶ Climate Change (INC) session in Geneva argued: ¶ The problem of global warming is caused not by emissions of greenhouse gases as such, but by ¶ excessive levels of per capita emissions of these gases. If per capita emissions of all countries had ¶ been on the same levels as that of the developing countries, the world would not today have ¶ faced the threat of global warming. It follows, therefore, that developed countries with high per ¶ capita emission levels of greenhouse gases are responsible for incremental global warming. ¶ In these negotiations, the principle of equity should be the touchstone for judging any proposal. ¶ Those responsible for environmental degradation should also be responsible for taking corrective ¶ measures. Since developed countries with high per capita emissions of greenhouse gases are ¶ responsible for incremental global warming, it follows that they have a corresponding obligation ¶ to take corrective action. Moreover, these are also the countries which have the greatest capacity ¶ to bear the burden. It is they who possess the financial resources and the technology needed for ¶ corrective action. This further reinforces their obligations regarding corrective action.178¶ Developed nations, on the other hand, have argued that their own reductions in emissions will ¶ not produce any environmental gains if developing nations do not also agree to emissions ¶ targets. Fear that the emissions of developing nations would offset or surpass the emissions ¶ reductions gained by implementation of the Kyoto Protocol was one of the major reasons for ¶ U.S.’s refusal to even consider the ratification of the Protocol in the Senate.179 Furthermore, if¶ developing countries were not required to take action to reduce their emissions, the U.S. feared ¶ that domestic industries would suffer severe economic losses while developing countries ¶ hosted new industry growth. Senator Robert Byrd (R-WV), co-sponsor of the Byrd-Hagel ¶ Resolution, commented during the senate debate that: ¶ He did not think the Senate should support a treaty that requires only half the world – in ¶ other words, the developed countries – to endure the economic costs of reducing emissions ¶ while developing countries are left free to pollute the atmosphere, and in so doing, siphon off ¶ American industries… In this particular environmental game, there are no winners; the world ¶ loses. And any effort to avoid the effects of global climate change will be doomed to failure ¶ from the start without the participation of the developing world.180¶ Since the Bank is a public agency in a developed country and its business is principally ¶ in developing countries, it has a unique opportunity to address this conundrum. By instituting ¶ a policy to reduce its own emissions while maintaining its role as an export financing agent, it ¶ can serve as a U.S. example of accepting environmental responsibility. At the same time, the ¶ exporting of energy efficiency methodologies and cleaner forms of energy technology in order ¶ to achieve emissions reductions benefits and engages developing countries. By requiring the ¶ export of cleaner forms of energy to areas where infrastructure is just beginning to be built, the ¶ Bank can help establish renewables as feasible foundations of economic development. ¶ Introducing renewable energy infrastructure can then also reduce the barriers of consumer ¶ unfamiliarity and information asymmetries that currently tend to favor nonrenewable energy ¶ forms. Intentioned implementation of technology for the purpose of market experience is the ¶ first step toward that technology’s gaining more widespread use.181¶ Third, the Bank’s adoption of a GHG emissions reduction policy would allow it to¶ press other export credit agencies under the OECD Common Arrangement to undertake ¶ similar measures. Its historic role as a leader among the OECD ECAs might afford it the ¶ political capital necessary to pursue widespread adoption of GHG reduction policies.182 If it is ¶ able to do so, the Bank will have influenced a significant proportion global financing policies – ¶ ECAs in 2001 covered about $800 billion of exports, and their activity “exceeds that of all ¶ multilateral development banks” including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.183
2
Advantage two – Agriculture
Mexican production transitions the US away from corn ethanol
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
Producing ethanol from sugar, for many reasons, is simply ¶ a better option than current corn-based ethanol production.152¶ Sugar is a much more efficient producer of ethanol than corn, ¶ and converting surplus sugar production to ethanol does not ¶ put undue pressure on a global staple food. Sugar is also the ¶ most feasible ethanol food stock in Mexico, and production ¶ facilities can easily be constructed alongside current sugar ¶ mills.153 Finally, Mexico may hold a comparative advantage ¶ in sugar production due to its geographical location which ¶ provides for more growing area and longer growing seasons ¶ than the United States. ¶ Notwithstanding the advantages of using sugar as a ¶ source for ethanol production, it must be acknowledged that ¶ without a further evolution to producing cellulosic ethanol, ¶ biofuels may not be the best way to reduce greenhouse gas ¶ emissions.154 Current cellulosic biofuel technology makes fuel ¶ production from biomass, cost-prohibitive in the short-term. ¶ However, as the technology becomes economically viable, ¶ and as the North American ethanol industry begins to rely ¶ on sugar as its primary resource, surplus farmland—previously ¶ planted in corn—should be diverted to biomass through land ¶ retirement, subsidization, and the demands of the market. ¶ As the production of sugar-ethanol migrates to Mexico, the ¶ United States can also transition facilities currently devoted to ¶ corn-based ethanol to production of ethanol from biomass or ¶ cellulosic materials.155¶ c. Biomass¶ Cellulosic biofuels might be produced from wood, crops ¶ or crop residues, or other specialty crops such as switchgrass; ¶ Cellulosic materials are generally considered better ethanol ¶ feed stocks, can be grown cheaply and efficiently, and do not  strain food supplies.156 Diversification from single crop ethanol ¶ sources also avoids problems associated with monoculture ¶ production.157 Furthermore, the use of native species, or ¶ climate-tolerant alternatives offer many advantages. Such feed ¶ stocks are adaptable to local soil and water conditions, tend ¶ to be more blight resistant, and often require less irrigation, ¶ fertilization, tillage, and overall energy input.158 Finally, use ¶ of these non-food crops for energy production avoids adverse ¶ effects on local and global food markets,159 while contributing ¶ to the revitalization of farmland.
This leads to sustainable framing – solves food-for-fuel tradeoffs
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
The problems discussed above, like any potential solutions, ¶ are all cyclical and reinforcing in nature. Like many global ¶ political and economic issues, each one affects the other. ¶ Restoring prosperous farming conditions to Mexico will ¶ undoubtedly result in less immigration, as will the creation of ¶ industrial and transportation jobs. ¶ Conversion to sugar-based ethanol and the establishment ¶ of a Mexican and/or American ethanol industry in Mexico ¶ creates new jobs and drives production costs for ethanol ¶ down, simultaneously easing the pressure on U.S. corn crops, ¶ and reducing demand on a global food staple. Ideally, these ¶ changes will also be felt at the pump and in larger petroleum ¶ policy. Meanwhile, demand for sugar feedstock should alleviate ¶ high costs of farm support for domestic sugar, while providing ¶ a resurgent cash crop for Mexico. As demand for U.S. corn ¶ falls, farmers may have the opportunity to advance biofuel ¶ technology and implement sustainable practices, and with this ¶ a cycle of reinforcing solutions become more complete.¶ Changes in agricultural practices stimulated by concurrent ¶ policy change completes the cycle, incentivizing conservative ¶ practices, reducing domestic subsidy payments, encouraging ¶ the shift in agricultural policy, and funding the new biofuel ¶ industry in Mexico. By paying corn farmers to grow biomass ¶ feedstock, essentially ensuring payments equal to the value ¶ of the corn harvest less profits from the biomass harvest, the ¶ U.S. saves money which would otherwise be spent on farm ¶ support. With that “saved” money, the environmental and ¶ sugar-ethanol movements can be funded, commencing yet ¶ another problem-solving cycle, creating economic growth, ¶ easing demands on world food supplies, and easing pressure ¶ on U.S. farmlands.
The impact is drastic food price increases
Wise 12 - Policy Research Director, Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University
(Timothy, “US corn ethanol fuels food crisis in developing countries,” http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/201210993632838545.html)
Besides Egypt, North African countries saw particularly high ethanol-related losses: Algeria ($329m), Morocco ($236m), Tunisia ($99m) and Libya ($68m). Impacts were also high in other strife-torn countries in the region - Syria ($242m), Iran ($492m) and Yemen ($58m). North Africa impacts totalled $1.4bn. Scaled to population size, these economic losses were at least as severe as those seen in Mexico. The link between high food prices and unrest in the region is by now well documented, and US ethanol is contributing to that instability.¶ Biofuel impacts on food prices¶ The debate over biofuels has grown urgent since food prices first spiked in 2007-2008, ushering in a food crisis characterised by repeated jumps in global food prices. Prices for most staple foods doubled, fell when the bubble burst in 2009, then jumped again to their previous high levels in 2010-2011.¶ After a brief respite in the first half of this year, the US drought triggered a new wave of price spikes, the third in just five years. Corn prices were particularly hard-hit, reaching record levels of more than $8.00/bushel, and more than $300 per metric tonne. Before the first spikes, prices had languished around $100/metric tonne.¶ Experts have debated how much of the price increases should be blamed on global biofuels expansion. Few argue now that the contribution is small. A US National Academy of Sciences review attributed 20-40 per cent of the 2007-2008 price spikes to global biofuels expansion. Subsequent studies have confirmed this range for the later price increases.¶ Why is the impact so large? Because so much food and feed is now diverted to produce fuel, and so much land is now used for biofuels feedstocks - corn and sugar for ethanol, soybeans, palm oil and a variety of other plants for biodiesel. This rapidly growing market was fuelled by a wide range of government incentives and mandates and by the rising price of petroleum.¶ Nowhere is the impact clearer than in the diversion of US corn into ethanol production. Ethanol now consumes roughly 40 per cent of the US corn crop, up from just 5 per cent a decade ago. The biggest jump came after the US Congress enacted the RFS in 2005 then expanded it dramatically in 2007.¶ A blending allowance of 10 per cent for domestic gasoline added to the demand, a level now potentially being raised to 15 per cent. These mandates for rising corn ethanol production combined with tax incentives to gasoline blenders and tariff protection against cheaper imports to create today's massive ethanol demand for corn.¶ As corn prices rose farmers increased production, but not enough to accommodate the increased ethanol demand. So prices just kept rising and corn stocks just kept getting thinner and thinner. They were at dangerously low levels - about 15 per cent of global use - when the first price spikes happened in 2007-2008. They are at 14 per cent now.¶ Impact on developing countries¶ Corn is probably the most problematic feedstock for biofuels. In many parts of the world it is grown as food for human consumption, serving as the staple grain for some one billion people worldwide. It is also a key feed for livestock, giving it another direct link to the human food supply through meat, dairy and egg prices.¶ US corn ethanol is particularly disruptive to international markets. The United States is by far the largest producer and exporter of corn in the world. That 40 per cent of the US corn crop being put into US cars represents an astonishing 15 per cent of global corn production. The diversion of so much corn from food and feed markets has produced a "demand shock" in international markets since 2004.¶ For our study of the impacts on corn importers, we relied on estimates of how much lower corn prices would have been if ethanol production had not grown past its 2004 levels. The impacts rose with ethanol demand, reaching an estimated 21 per cent in 2009. We took those annual estimates and calculated the added cost each year, 2005-10, to the world's net corn-importing countries based on their net import volumes.¶ The largest importer by far is Japan and the ethanol premium cost Japan an estimated $2.2bn. But our interest was developing countries because of their vulnerability to food price increases.¶ Over the last 50 years, and particularly since the 1980s, the world's least developed countries have gone from being small net exporters of agricultural goods to huge net importers. The shift came when structural reforms in the 1980s forced indebted developing country governments to open their economies to agricultural imports while reducing their support for domestic farmers. The result: a flood of cheap and often-subsidised imports from rich countries, forcing local farmers out of business and off the land. ¶ In the price spike of 2008, the world's least developed countries imported $26.6bn in agricultural goods and exported only $9.1bn, leaving an agricultural trade deficit for these overwhelmingly agricultural countries of $17.5bn, more than three times the deficit recorded in 2000 ($4.9bn). This squeezes government budgets, strains limited foreign exchange reserves and leaves the poor more exposed to food price increases.¶ Guatemala, for example, saw its import dependence in corn grow from 9 per cent in the early 1990s to around 40 per cent today. This in a corn-producing country, the birthplace of domesticated corn. According to our estimates, Guatemala saw $91bn in ethanol-related impacts, $28m in 2010 alone. How big an impact is that? It represents six times the level of US agricultural aid that year and nearly as much as US food aid to Guatemala. It is equivalent to over 10 per cent of the government's annual expenditure on agricultural development. It is devastating for a country in which nearly half of children under five are malnourished. ¶ Of course, poor consumers are the ones most hurt by ethanol-related price increases, especially those in urban areas. Even in a net corn exporting country like Uganda, domestic corn prices spiked as international prices transmitted to local markets. Ugandans spend on average 65 per cent of their cash income on food, with poor urban consumers getting 20 per cent of their calories from corn purchased in the marketplace. More than half of Ugandans were considered "food insecure" in 2007, and the price spikes have only made that worse.¶ US ethanol expansion has accounted for 21 per cent of corn prices in recent years, so it has forced thousands of Ugandans deeper into poverty and hunger.
A diversity of studies confirm corn biofuels are a key internal link to global food shocks
Bryce 12 - senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, is the author, most recently, of Power Hungry: The Myths of “Green” Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future
(Robert, “Democrats and Republicans Support Harmful Ethanol Subsidies for the Sake of Votes,” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/05/democrats-and-republicans-support-harmful-ethanol-subsidies-for-the-sake-of-votes.html)
At least 17 studies—done by organizations ranging from Purdue University to the World Bank—have exposed the link between increasing biofuel production and higher food prices. Last year the Farm Foundation, a nonprofit entity formed in 1933 that focuses on agriculture issues, issued a report saying that the ethanol mandate creates a “large, persistent and non-price responsive demand for corn.” The report went on, saying “there is little doubt that biofuels play a role in the corn price level and variability, and this has spilled over into other commodity markets.”
Biofuel-induced shocks kills a billion people
Runge and Senauer 7 – *Professor of Applied Economics @ U Minn, Professor of Applied Economics @ U Minn
(C. Ford, Distinguished McKnight University Professor of Applied Economics and Law and Director of the Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Minnesota; Benjamin, Professor of Applied Economics and Co-director of the Food Industry Center at the University of Minnesota, ‘How Biofuels could starve the poor,’ Foreign Affairs, May/June, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html)
Biofuels may have even more devastating effects in the rest of the world, especially on the prices of basic foods. If oil prices remain high -- which is likely -- the people most vulnerable to the price hikes brought on by the biofuel boom will be those in countries that both suffer food deficits and import petroleum. The risk extends to a large part of the developing world: in 2005, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, most of the 82 low-income countries with food deficits were also net oil importers.  Even major oil exporters that use their petrodollars to purchase food imports, such as Mexico, cannot escape the consequences of the hikes in food prices. In late 2006, the price of tortilla flour in Mexico, which gets 80 percent of its corn imports from the United States, doubled thanks partly to a rise in U.S. corn prices from $2.80 to $4.20 a bushel over the previous several months. (Prices rose even though tortillas are made mainly from Mexican-grown white corn because industrial users of the imported yellow corn, which is used for animal feed and processed foods, started buying the cheaper white variety.) The price surge was exacerbated by speculation and hoarding. With about half of Mexico's 107 million people living in poverty and relying on tortillas as a main source of calories, the public outcry was fierce. In January 2007, Mexico's new president, Felipe Calderón, was forced to cap the prices of corn products.  The International Food Policy Research Institute, in Washington, D.C., has produced sobering estimates of the potential global impact of the rising demand for biofuels. Mark Rosegrant, an IFPRI division director, and his colleagues project that given continued high oil prices, the rapid increase in global biofuel production will push global corn prices up by 20 percent by 2010 and 41 percent by 2020. The prices of oilseeds, including soybeans, rapeseeds, and sunflower seeds, are projected to rise by 26 percent by 2010 and 76 percent by 2020, and wheat prices by 11 percent by 2010 and 30 percent by 2020. In the poorest parts of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where cassava is a staple, its price is expected to increase by 33 percent by 2010 and 135 percent by 2020. The projected price increases may be mitigated if crop yields increase substantially or ethanol production based on other raw materials (such as trees and grasses) becomes commercially viable. But unless biofuel policies change significantly, neither development is likely.  The production of cassava-based ethanol may pose an especially grave threat to the food security of the world's poor. Cassava, a tropical potato-like tuber also known as manioc, provides one-third of the caloric needs of the population in sub-Saharan Africa and is the primary staple for over 200 million of Africa's poorest people. In many tropical countries, it is the food people turn to when they cannot afford anything else. It also serves as an important reserve when other crops fail because it can grow in poor soils and dry conditions and can be left in the ground to be harvested as needed.  Thanks to its high-starch content, cassava is also an excellent source of ethanol. As the technology for converting it to fuel improves, many countries -- including China, Nigeria, and Thailand -- are considering using more of the crop to that end. If peasant farmers in developing countries could become suppliers for the emerging industry, they would benefit from the increased income. But the history of industrial demand for agricultural crops in these countries suggests that large producers will be the main beneficiaries. The likely result of a boom in cassava-based ethanol production is that an increasing number of poor people will struggle even more to feed themselves.  Participants in the 1996 World Food Summit set out to cut the number of chronically hungry people in the world -- people who do not eat enough calories regularly to be healthy and active -- from 823 million in 1990 to about 400 million by 2015. The Millennium Development Goals established by the United Nations in 2000 vowed to halve the proportion of the world's chronically underfed population from 16 percent in 1990 to eight percent in 2015. Realistically, however, resorting to biofuels is likely to exacerbate world hunger. Several studies by economists at the World Bank and elsewhere suggest that caloric consumption among the world's poor declines by about half of one percent whenever the average prices of all major food staples increase by one percent. When one staple becomes more expensive, people try to replace it with a cheaper one, but if the prices of nearly all staples go up, they are left with no alternative.  In a study of global food security we conducted in 2003, we projected that given the rates of economic and population growth, the number of hungry people throughout the world would decline by 23 percent, to about 625 million, by 2025, so long as agricultural productivity improved enough to keep the relative price of food constant. But if, all other things being equal, the prices of staple foods increased because of demand for biofuels, as the IFPRI projections suggest they will, the number of food-insecure people in the world would rise by over 16 million for every percentage increase in the real prices of staple foods. That means that 1.2 billion people could be chronically hungry by 2025 -- 600 million more than previously predicted.  The world's poorest people already spend 50 to 80 percent of their total household income on food. For the many among them who are landless laborers or rural subsistence farmers, large increases in the prices of staple foods will mean malnutrition and hunger. Some of them will tumble over the edge of subsistence into outright starvation, and many more will die from a multitude of hunger-related diseases.
Exposing the link between food and fuel is key – allows scenario-planning to avert the worst impact of shocks and diverts resources way from big-US-ag
Altieri 6 – Professor of Ag Economics @ Cal
(Miguel, “The ecological and social tragedy of crop-based biofuel production in the Americas,” http://www.wrm.org.uy/subjects/agrofuels/crop_based_biofuel.html)
The energy crisis—driven by over-consumption and peak oil—has provided an opportunity for powerful global partnerships between petroleum, grain, genetic engineering, and automotive corporations. These new food and fuel alliances are deciding the future of the world’s agricultural landscapes. The biofuels boom will further consolidate their hold over our food and fuel systems and allow them to determine what, how and how much will be grown, resulting in more rural poverty, environmental destruction and hunger. The ultimate beneficiaries of the biofuel revolution will be grain merchant giants, including Cargill, ADM and Bunge; petroleum companies such as BP, Shell, Chevron, Neste Oil, Repsol and Total; car companies such as General Motors, Volkswagen AG, FMC-Ford France, PSA Peugeot-Citroen and Renault; and biotech giants such as Monsanto, DuPont, and Syngenta.¶ The biotech industry is using the current biofuel fever to greenwash its image by developing and deploying transgenic seeds for energy, not food production. Given the increasing public mistrust for and rejection of transgenic crops as food, biotechnology will be used by corporations to improve their image claiming that they will develop new genetically modified crops with enhanced biomass production or that contain the enzyme alfa-amilase which will allow the ethanol process to begin while the corn is still in the field—a technology they claim has no negative impacts on human health. The deployment of such crops into the environment will add one more environmental threat to those already linked to GMO corn which in 2006 reached 32.2 million hectares: the introduction of new traits into the human food chain as has already occurred with Starlink corn and rice LL601.¶ As governments are persuaded by the promises of the global biofuel market, they devise national biofuel plans that will lock their agro-systems into production based on large scale, fuel monocultures, dependent upon intensive use of herbicides and chemical fertilizers, thus diverting millions of hectares of valuable cropland from much needed food production. There is a great need for social analysis to anticipate the food security and environmental implications of the unfolding biofuel plans of small countries such as Ecuador. This country expects to expand sugarcane production by 50,000 hectares, and to clear 100,000 hectares of natural forests to give way to oil palm plantations. Oil palm plantations are already causing major environmental disaster in the Choco region of Colombia (Bravo 2006).¶ Clearly, the ecosystems of areas in which biofuel crops are being produced are being rapidly degraded, and biofuel production is neither environmentally and socially sustainable now nor in the future.¶ It is also worrisome that public universities and research systems (i.e. the recent agreement signed by BP and the University of California-Berkeley) are falling prey to the seduction of big money and the influence of politics and corporate power. In addition to the implications of the intrusion of private capital on the shaping of the research agenda and faculty composition—that erodes the public mission of universities in favor of private interests—it serves as an attack against academic freedom and faculty governance. These partnerships divert universities from engaging in unbiased research and preclude intellectual capital from exploring truly sustainable alternatives to the energy crisis and climate change.

Hunger has massive negative externalities for the bottom billion – leads to global social unrest
Brown 8 - founder and president of Earth Policy Institute, recipient of numerous honorary degrees
(Lester, ‘Why ethanol production will drive world food prices even higher in 2008,’ Jan 25, http://media.cleantech.com/2360/why-ethanol-production-will-drive-world-food-prices-even-higher-in-2008)
Historically the food and energy economies have been largely separate, but now with the construction of so many fuel ethanol distilleries, they are merging. If the food value of grain is less than its fuel value, the market will move the grain into the energy economy. Thus as the price of oil rises, the price of grain follows it upward. A University of Illinois economics team calculates that with oil at $50 a barrel, it is profitable—with the ethanol subsidy of 51¢ a gallon (equal to $1.43 per bushel of corn)—to convert corn into ethanol as long as the price is below $4 a bushel. But with oil at $100 a barrel, distillers can pay more than $7 a bushel for corn and still break even. If oil climbs to $140, distillers can pay $10 a bushel for corn—double the early 2008 price of $5 per bushel.  The World Bank reports that for each 1 percent rise in food prices, caloric intake among the poor drops 0.5 percent. Millions of those living on the lower rungs of the global economic ladder, people who are barely hanging on, will lose their grip and begin to fall off.  Projections by Professors C. Ford Runge and Benjamin Senauer of the University of Minnesota four years ago showed the number of hungry and malnourished people decreasing from over 800 million to 625 million by 2025. But in early 2007 their update of these projections, taking into account the biofuel effect on world food prices, showed the number of hungry people climbing to 1.2 billion by 2025. That climb is already under way. Since the budgets of international food aid agencies are set well in advance, a rise in food prices shrinks food assistance. The U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), which is now supplying emergency food aid to 37 countries, is cutting shipments as prices soar. The WFP reports that 18,000 children are dying each day from hunger and related illnesses.  As grain prices climb, a politics of food scarcity is emerging as exporting countries restrict exports to limit the rise in domestic food prices. At the end of January, Russia—one of the top five wheat exporters—will impose a 40-percent export tax on wheat, effectively banning exports. Argentina, another leading wheat exporter, closed export registrations for wheat indefinitely in early December until it could assess the condition of the new crop. And Viet Nam, the number two rice exporter after Thailand, has banned rice exports for several months and will likely not lift this ban until the new crop comes to market. Rising food prices are translating into social unrest. It began in early 2007 with tortilla demonstrations in Mexico. Then came pasta protests in Italy. More recently, rising bread prices in Pakistan have become a source of unrest. In Jakarta, 10,000 Indonesians gathered in front of the presidential palace on January 14th this year to protest the doubling of soybean prices that has raised the price of tempeh, the national soy-based protein staple. When a supermarket in Chongqing, China, where cooking oil prices have soared, offered this oil at a reduced price, the resulting stampede when doors opened killed three people and injured 31. As economic stresses translate into political stresses, the number of failing states, such as Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Haiti, which was already increasing before the rise in food prices began, could increase even faster.  
Food shocks escalate to all-out violence
Klare 12 - professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College
(Michael, “The Hunger Wars in our Future,” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-57489345/the-hunger-wars-in-our-future/?pageNum=1andtag=page)
The Great Drought of 2012 has yet to come to an end, but we already know that its consequences will be severe. With more than one-half of America's counties designated as drought disaster areas, the 2012 harvest of corn, soybeans, and other food staples is guaranteed to fall far short of predictions. This, in turn, will boost food prices domestically and abroad, causing increased misery for farmers and low-income Americans and far greater hardship for poor people in countries that rely on imported U.S. grains.¶ This, however, is just the beginning of the likely consequences: if history is any guide, rising food prices of this sort will also lead to widespread social unrest and violent conflict.¶ Food -- affordable food -- is essential to human survival and well-being. Take that away, and people become anxious, desperate, and angry. In the United States, food represents only about 13 of the average household budget, a relatively small share, so a boost in food prices in 2013 will probably not prove overly taxing for most middle- and upper-income families. It could, however, produce considerable hardship for poor and unemployed Americans with limited resources. "You are talking about a real bite out of family budgets," commented Ernie Gross, an agricultural economist at Omaha's Creighton University. This could add to the discontent already evident in depressed and high-unemployment areas, perhaps prompting an intensified backlash against incumbent politicians and other forms of dissent and unrest.¶ It is in the international arena, however, that the Great Drought is likely to have its most devastating effects. Because so many nations depend on grain imports from the U.S. to supplement their own harvests, and because intense drought and floods are damaging crops elsewhere as well, food supplies are expected to shrink and prices to rise across the planet. "What happens to the U.S. supply has immense impact around the world," says Robert Thompson, a food expert at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. As the crops most affected by the drought, corn and soybeans, disappear from world markets, he noted, the price of all grains, including wheat, is likely to soar, causing immense hardship to those who already have trouble affording enough food to feed their families.¶ The Hunger Games, 2007-2011¶ What happens next is, of course, impossible to predict, but if the recent past is any guide, it could turn ugly. In 2007-2008, when rice, corn, and wheat experienced prices hikes of 100 or more, sharply higher prices -- especially for bread -- sparked "food riots" in more than two dozen countries, including Bangladesh, Cameroon, Egypt, Haiti, Indonesia, Senegal, and Yemen. In Haiti, the rioting became so violent and public confidence in the government's ability to address the problem dropped so precipitously that the Haitian Senate voted to oust the country's prime minister, Jacques-Edouard Alexis. In other countries, angry protestors clashed with army and police forces, leaving scores dead.¶ Those price increases of 2007-2008 were largely attributed to the soaring cost of oil, which made food production more expensive. (Oil's use is widespread in farming operations, irrigation, food delivery, and pesticide manufacture.) At the same time, increasing amounts of cropland worldwide were being diverted from food crops to the cultivation of plants used in making biofuels.¶ The next price spike in 2010-11 was, however, closely associated with climate change. An intense drought gripped much of eastern Russia during the summer of 2010, reducing the wheat harvest in that breadbasket region by one-fifth and prompting Moscow to ban all wheat exports. Drought also hurt China's grain harvest, while intense flooding destroyed much of Australia's wheat crop. Together with other extreme-weather-related effects, these disasters sent wheat prices soaring by more than 50 and the price of most food staples by 32.¶ Once again, a surge in food prices resulted in widespread social unrest, this time concentrated in North Africa and the Middle East. The earliest protests arose over the cost of staples in Algeria and then Tunisia, where -- no coincidence -- the precipitating event was a young food vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, setting himself on fire to protest government harassment. Anger over rising food and fuel prices combined with long-simmering resentments about government repression and corruption sparked what became known as the Arab Spring. The rising cost of basic staples, especially a loaf of bread, was also a cause of unrest in Egypt, Jordan, and Sudan. Other factors, notably anger at entrenched autocratic regimes, may have proved more powerful in those places, but as the author of "Tropic of Chaos," Christian Parenti, wrote, "The initial trouble was traceable, at least in part, to the price of that loaf of bread."¶ The Hunger Games, 2012-??¶ If this was just one bad harvest, occurring in only one country, the world would undoubtedly absorb the ensuing hardship and expect to bounce back in the years to come. Unfortunately, it's becoming evident that the Great Drought of 2012 is not a one-off event in a single heartland nation, but rather an inevitable consequence of global warming which is only going to intensify. As a result, we can expect not just more bad years of extreme heat, but worse years, hotter and more often, and not just in the United States, but globally for the indefinite future.¶ Until recently, most scientists were reluctant to blame particular storms or droughts on global warming. Now, however, a growing number of scientists believe that such links can be demonstrated in certain cases. In one recent study focused on extreme weather events in 2011, for instance, climate specialists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Great Britain's National Weather Service concluded that human-induced climate change has made intense heat waves of the kind experienced in Texas in 2011 more likely than ever before. Published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, it reported that global warming had ensured that the incidence of that Texas heat wave was 20 times more likely than it would have been in 1960; similarly, abnormally warm temperatures like those experienced in Britain last November were said to be 62 times as likely because of global warming.¶ It is still too early to apply the methodology used by these scientists to calculating the effect of global warming on the heat waves of 2012, which are proving to be far more severe, but we can assume the level of correlation will be high. And what can we expect in the future, as the warming gains momentum?¶ When we think about climate change (if we think about it at all), we envision rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, freakish storms, hellish wildfires, and rising sea levels. Among other things, this will result in damaged infrastructure and diminished food supplies. These are, of course, manifestations of warming in the physical world, not the social world we all inhabit and rely on for so many aspects of our daily well-being and survival. The purely physical effects of climate change will, no doubt, prove catastrophic. But the social effects including, somewhere down the line, food riots, mass starvation, state collapse, mass migrations, and conflicts of every sort, up to and including full-scale war, could prove even more disruptive and deadly.¶ In her immensely successful young-adult novel "The Hunger Games" (and the movie that followed), Suzanne Collins riveted millions with a portrait of a dystopian, resource-scarce, post-apocalyptic future where once-rebellious "districts" in an impoverished North America must supply two teenagers each year for a series of televised gladiatorial games that end in death for all but one of the youthful contestants. These "hunger games" are intended as recompense for the damage inflicted on the victorious capital of Panem by the rebellious districts during an insurrection. Without specifically mentioning global warming, Collins makes it clear that climate change was significantly responsible for the hunger that shadows the North American continent in this future era. Hence, as the gladiatorial contestants are about to be selected, the mayor of District 12's principal city describes "the disasters, the droughts, the storms, the fires, the encroaching seas that swallowed up so much of the land and the brutal war for what little sustenance remained."¶ In this, Collins was prescient, even if her specific vision of the violence on which such a world might be organized is fantasy. While we may never see her version of those hunger games, do not doubt that some version of them will come into existence -- that, in fact, hunger wars of many sorts will fill our future. These could include any combination or permutation of the deadly riots that led to the 2008 collapse of Haiti's government, the pitched battles between massed protesters and security forces that engulfed parts of Cairo as the Arab Spring developed, the ethnic struggles over disputed croplands and water sources that have made Darfur a recurring headline of horror in our world, or the inequitable distribution of agricultural land that continues to fuel the insurgency of the Maoist-inspired Naxalites of India.¶ Combine such conflicts with another likelihood: that persistent drought and hunger will force millions of people to abandon their traditional lands and flee to the squalor of shantytowns and expanding slums surrounding large cities, sparking hostility from those already living there. One such eruption, with grisly results, occurred in Johannesburg's shantytowns in 2008 when desperately poor and hungry migrants from Malawi and Zimbabwe were set upon, beaten, and in some cases burned to death by poor South Africans. One terrified Zimbabwean, cowering in a police station from the raging mobs, said she fled her country because "there is no work and no food." And count on something else: millions more in the coming decades, pressed by disasters ranging from drought and flood to rising sea levels, will try to migrate to other countries, provoking even greater hostility. And that hardly begins to exhaust the possibilities that lie in our hunger-games future.¶ At this point, the focus is understandably on the immediate consequences of the still ongoing Great Drought: dying crops, shrunken harvests, and rising food prices. But keep an eye out for the social and political effects that undoubtedly won't begin to show up here or globally until later this year or 2013. Better than any academic study, these will offer us a hint of what we can expect in the coming decades from a hunger-games world of rising temperatures, persistent droughts, recurring food shortages, and billions of famished, desperate people.

3
Advantage three – Mexico
Post-NAFTA agricultural corrections have devastated rural Mexico – US biofuel assistance is key
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
Additionally, Mexican agricultural resources are scant in ¶ comparison to its North American counterparts.113 In fact, ¶ only 12 of Mexico’s land is considered arable, with less than ¶ 3 of that land being irrigated.114 Agriculturally, the country ¶ has been slow to modernize, failing to take advantage of the ¶ ethanol movement and other technological advancements ¶ such as genetically modified crops.115 Further, state operated ¶ granaries and distribution networks are withering, and ¶ agriculture cooperatives may be key to the survival of Mexican ¶ agriculture.116 Regardless, the future of Mexican agriculture ¶ depends on advances in irrigation, agricultural infrastructure, ¶ and mechanization, and these advances will likely only result ¶ from foreign direct investment. ¶ IV. A Possible Solution?¶ A. Cooperative Advances in Agriculture and Infrastructure¶ The devastation of Mexican agriculture post-NAFTA, ¶ while problematic, may have been an inevitable development.117¶ The resulting downfall of the Mexican ejido, while initially ¶ displacing Mexican farm workers and further weakening ¶ Mexican agricultural production, might be viewed as a market ¶ correction demanding efficient production and modernization ¶ while providing a better economic quality of life for rural ¶ Mexicans.118 However, because the Mexican economy may ¶ not be able to survive such a correction, the country might ¶ benefit from the help of its Northern neighbor. U.S. assistance ¶ should consist of both direct aid and investment in Mexico, ¶ and concurrent changes in domestic agricultural practices and ¶ subsidization.¶ Under comparative trade theory, the U.S. should become ¶ Mexico’s supplier of basic grains, and Mexico should supply ¶ most, if not all, of U.S. fruits and vegetables.119 However, ¶ special consideration should be given to the socio-economic ¶ conditions of the rural Mexican farmer, and Mexican ¶ producers of traditional varieties of maize must be protected ¶ from market intrusion.120 Part of any agreement must be ¶ an inherent interest in mutual socio-cultural preservation. ¶ In trade, nations must recognize the higher responsibility ¶ to protect vulnerable aspects of one another’s culture and ¶ heritage. As this analysis will demonstrate, the effects of ¶ protecting Mexican farmers of white corn will be marginal to ¶ U.S. yellow corn farmers as inflated demand for U.S. corn will ¶ be eliminated, and any income lost in the Mexican market will ¶ be recouped by environmental credits, and the harvesting of ¶ biomass for domestic biofuel production. ¶ Notwithstanding the need to protect this sector of Mexican ¶ agriculture, recent land reforms in Mexico has given rise to ¶ increased U.S. interest in contract farming and marketing ¶ arrangements. 121 Permitting U.S. firms to operate on Mexican ¶ agricultural lands, and invest in its development, will likely ¶ enhance Mexican agricultural efficiency, productivity, ¶ and profitability, while facilitating land ownership for the ¶ Mexican farmer. With Mexican sugar production becoming ¶ ever-important in the establishment of a North American ¶ biofuel industry, FDI from the United States should focus ¶ on the supply and development of agricultural technology, ¶ the engineering of biofuel production facilities, and the ¶ infrastructure necessary to transport ethanol throughout both ¶ countries, and to points of export.
The affirmative has substantial benefits for the poor – it’s the most viable alternative for sustaining an indigenously-centered rural economy
PULIDO-CASTAÑON 12 – Dept of Economics @ Universidad Autonoma de San Luis Potosi
(Jesus, and Jaime Martinez-Garcia, “BIOFUEL INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SUSTAINABILITY IN MEXICO,” IAIA Conference Paper, http://www.iaia.org/conferences/iaia12/uploadpapers/Final20papers20review20process/Pulido,20JesC3BAs.2020BIOFUEL20INDUSTRY20AND20FUTURE20SUSTAINABILITY20IN20MEXICO.pdf?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1)
As a result of this movement, the Mexican government fostered a policy of in-bond (maquila) ¶ industrialization, focused on the market of the United States (Carbaugh, 1999). Many industrial ¶ facilities were built mainly in the Northern states, and many Mexican peasants became urban ¶ labourers in the maquila industry (ibid). NAFTA also eliminated import restrictions on U.S. agricultural ¶ products, which were more cheap and accessible due to the competitiveness of U.S. farmers and the ¶ lack of investment in the rural Mexican sector (Yunez-Naude and Taylor 2006). These actions reversed ¶ the terms of trade in agricultural products, and Mexico became an importer of foods and agricultural ¶ inputs (ibid).¶ Since 1994, the Mexican Government neglected the rural sector in terms of investment in comparison ¶ to developed, industrialized countries, where the agricultural sector is a strategic and a form of ¶ national security (ibid). In addition to this, trade policies have been a contributing factor for a net¶ decrease in the number of people employed in agriculture, particularly after NAFTA came into effect¶ (Puyana and Romero, 2004).¶ Therefore, an energy sector policy in Mexico must be based on a re-orientation of the role of the ¶ agricultural sector in terms of the welfare of the population – both rural and urban-, as a provider of ¶ the inputs required for a non-conventional energy industry, as well as a redefinition of its importance ¶ as a strategic sector for national security, as oil production levels continue to dip towards inefficiency.¶ BIOFUELS FOR SUSTAINABILITY¶ The 2007-2012 National Development Plan for Mexico considers environmental sustainability as one of ¶ the pillars for the country´s economic development. In order to achieve this objective the strategies ¶ numbered are the fostering of a more efficient use of energy as well as a greater reliance on renewable ¶ sources of energy, and particularly on biofuels, in order to satisfy the energy demands in the country ¶ (Presidencia, 2007). ¶ The production of ethanol based on sugar cane could be a viable alternative towards the production of ¶ cleaner fuels, as it has been estimated that producing and burning cane ethanol generates between 55 ¶ to 90 percent less carbon dioxide than gasoline (Bourne, 2007). Another option could be the ¶ production of biodiesel based on seed crops such as safflower, soy and palm tree, which generates ¶ 68 less greenhouse gases than petroleum diesel during the production and burning process (ibid). In ¶ the scenery of inclusion of biofuels into the Mexican economy there are also a number of potential ¶ non-environmental benefits such as the creation of jobs, the development of the rural economy and ¶ increased energy security (SENER, 2006).
Ex-Im raises the bar for environmental standards and corporate accountability – fosters drastic increases in quality of life in Mexico
Sheppard 3 – JD, represents clients before the IRS regarding foreign financial accounts (Form TD F 90-22.1 or FBAR), foreign financial assets (Form 8938), foreign tax credits (Form 1116), foreign earned income exclusion (Section 911, Form 2555), treaty-based return positions (Form 8833), passive foreign investment companies (PFIC, Form 8621), controlled foreign corporations (CFC, Form 5471), foreign trusts (Form 3520 and Form 3520-A), expatriation (Section 877A, Form 8854), foreign investment in U.S. real property (FIRPTA), withholding on payments to foreign persons, and FATCA compliance.  Mr. Sheppard has negotiated hundreds of tax settlements with the IRS under the Offshore Voluntary Disclosure Initiative (OVDI), Last Chance Compliance Initiative (LCCI), and Offshore Voluntary Disclosure Program (OVDP)
(Hale, “Revamping the Export-Import Bank in 2002: The Impact of This Interim Solution on the United States and Latin America,” 6 N.Y.U. J. Legis. and Pub. Pol'y 130, Hein Online)
Second, an increase of U.S. exports of goods and services to¶ Latin America allows (or effectively obligates) U.S. corporations to¶ benefit the region directly or indirectly. Concerning direct benefits¶ for the region, when Ex-Im Bank financing permits U.S. companies to¶ export services (for example, designing and constructing an infrastruc-¶ ture project such as a water treatment facility, an energy plant, a re-¶ cycling center, etc.), these companies tend to take steps in order to be¶ perceived as good corporate citizens: they enforce ethical business¶ practices through use of voluntary codes of conduct; introduce envi-¶ ronmental, health and safety standards that exceed those required by¶ local law; offer compensation and benefits packages that surpass those¶ provided by local companies; provide access to advanced technologies¶ that improve the quality of life and foster sustainable development;¶ and promote charitable giving and community activism.2°° With re-¶ spect to indirect benefits for Latin America, when the Ex-Im Bank¶ finances the export of goods, many U.S. companies force the local¶ suppliers and distributors to adhere to U.S. or international standards,¶ both of which typically exceed those demanded locally.201 Moreover,¶ by setting these higher standards, U.S. companies actually exert pres-¶ sure on domestic businesses to adhere to the same standards, lest they¶ lose business and face disgruntled workers.202 These benefits by mul-¶ tinational companies based in the United States are not given as an¶ altruistic gesture; rather, they are commonly introduced due to pres-¶ sure from non-governmental organizations.203 With the aim of pro-¶ tecting persons and the environment in developing countries, these¶ groups use many weapons, such as negative publicity campaigns to¶ obligate companies to behave acceptably. Their goal, in short, is to¶ force businesses to meet certain internationally-accepted standards or¶ risk the consequences of negative media coverage and consumer boy-¶ cotts.204 Irrespective of the motives of these U.S. companies, the re-¶ sult is unchanged: improved conditions and prudent development in¶ Latin America thanks to financing by the Ex-Im Bank.
Only the US solves
Farnsworth 13 – MPA in IR @ Princeton, former State Department official, Vice President of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society
(Eric, “ENERGY SECURITY OPPORTUNITIES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN,” House Testimony, Lexis)
More broadly, the United States has a strategic interest in working with willing nations in ¶ the hemisphere to develop their own energy resources effectively, while promoting ¶ models that reduce the negative if unintended consequences of regional energy ¶ development, including a lack of transparency and official corruption, the distorting ¶ impact of consumption subsidies, an over-reliance on a single commodity or sector, ¶ environmental concerns, and a concentration of wealth and political power around the ¶ sector. In order to develop their respective industries, nations need U.S. technology, ¶ management expertise, and investment dollars. They need our education system to ¶ develop their engineers and seismologists, they need help to understand regulatory, tax, ¶ and policy models that work, they need to be exposed to best practices in environmental ¶ mitigation, and they need our technical assistance to improve the investment climate and ¶ the rule of law.
Export-import financing solves
Miller and DeLeon 9 - *Stephanie, consultant on U.S.-Latin America relations and was formerly the Research Associate for the Americas Project on the National Security Team.  Born in Venezuela with family from Colombia, Miller earned her degree from Duke University in International Comparative Studies with a focus on Latin America. She currently lives in Bogotá, Colombia, Rudy, Senior Vice President of National Security and International Policy at American Progress
(“Transcending the Rio Grande,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/04/pdf/mexico.pdf)
The United States needs to explore ways to make investing in alternative energy projects ¶ in Mexico more economically viable and profitable, including possible subsidies and ¶ tax breaks for companies looking to invest in alternative energy both within the United ¶ States and abroad. One way to do this is to make use of The Department of State, Foreign ¶ Operations and Related Programs Appropriations Act of 2008 (H.R. 2764) to finance ¶ renewable energy projects in Mexico. H.R. 2764 was passed in the 110th U.S. Congress in ¶ June 2007 and signed into law by former President Bush in December 2007 and encourages the Export-Import Bank of the United States to invest 10 percent of its financing ¶ capacity in promoting the export of clean energy products and services.
FDI is key – creates economies of scale
Valles 13 – Director of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(Guillermo, et al, “MEXICO’S AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT,” United Nations, http://www.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2013/11166.pdf)
There is significant potential for energy extraction from the residuals of thirteen key agricultural products, in terms ¶ of bioelectricity, bioethanol, biodiesel and biomethane. It is estimated that revenues of between USD 2.4 and 4.3 ¶ billion could be generated for Mexican agriculture and given that many of the thirteen products are cultivated in ¶ smallholder systems, bioenergy revenue streams could significantly increase income-generation and (skilled) job ¶ opportunities within rural areas and help reduce rural poverty, seasonal fluctuations in agricultural employment ¶ and rural emigration. It is important that Mexico is cognizant of the potential of biofuels as a contributor to rural ¶ development, in particular as a source of employment and income creation in rural areas.¶ There are many challenges that need to be met, however, before the potential of second generation biofuels ¶ can be realized. Many regulatory and technological objectives need to be addressed including initializing a ¶ comprehensive framework to accelerate the evolution and adoption of related technology and demand for ¶ biofuels produced from residues. Regarding the latter, the inclusion of minimum purchase requirements within ¶ public procurement mechanisms would encourage second generation biofuel production. There are existing ¶ rural investment programs but they are too numerous and complex that it is unclear which if any, would provide ¶ support for biofuel production. International cooperation will be fundamental in terms of both research and ¶ development of related technologies (cost reduction, speed of development) and through the creation of large ¶ markets in order to exploit available economies of scale. Most importantly, second generation biofuel adoption ¶ will only become widespread after considerable strategic, political and economic integration between energy and ¶ agricultural production.

Tournament: Harvard | Round: Quarters | Opponent: GBS CM | Judge:
The aff is key to reverse widespread nitrogen overuse
Potera 8 has written for Environmental Health Perspectives since 1996, writer for Microbe, Genetic Engineering News, and the American Journal of Nursing (Carol Potera, “Fuels: Corn Ethanol Goal Revives Dead Zone Concerns” Environ Health Perspectives 116(6): A242–A243, June 2008, PMCID: PMC2430248, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2430248/)
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 calls for the production of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022, including 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol, a tripling of current production that would require a similar increase in corn production. Yet scientists are coming to understand that biofuels, which originally sounded like a sensible response to the twin problems of climate change and dependence on foreign oil, create environmental problems of their own. One such problem is an increase in nitrogen runoff as farmers rush to plant more corn to meet growing demand for ethanol. According to the National Corn Growers Association, rising corn prices prompted farmers to plant 92.9 million acres of the grain in 2007, a 19 increase over the prior year. Fred Below, a professor of crop physiology at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, explains that corn requires more nitrogen fertilizer compared with other crops because of its higher production of grain per unit area than other crops. “Also,” he adds, “unlike crops like soybeans that form symbiotic relationships with soil bacteria to obtain a portion of their nitrogen from the atmosphere, corn is completely dependent on available nitrogen in soil.” Naturally occurring nitrogen usually must be supplemented with fertilizer to meet corn’s needs. The nitrogen applied as fertilizer to corn does not stay in the Corn Belt. Instead, it travels via local streams and rivers to the Mississippi River and eventually enters the Gulf of Mexico. Once there, the excess nitrogen fuels explosive algal blooms. When the algae die, they are decomposed by bacteria that consume much of the oxygen in the water. The result is a so-called Dead Zone about the size of New Jersey that is so depleted of oxygen that fish, shellfish, and other aquatic life cannot survive there. The boom in biofuel production “is a disaster for the Gulf of Mexico,” says Simon Donner, an assistant geography professor at the University of British Columbia. “Nitrogen already is a big problem, and the new energy policy will make it worse.” Donner and Chris Kucharik, an associate scientist at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, are the first to quantify how the corn ethanol boom may impact the Gulf. They used established models that combine agricultural land use with nitrogen cycling. The results, reported 18 March 2008 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, showed that scaling up corn production to meet the 15-billion-gallon goal would increase nitrogen loading in the Dead Zone by 10–18. This would boost nitrogen levels to twice the level recommended by the Mississippi Basin/Gulf of Mexico Water Nutrient Task Force, a coalition of federal, state, and tribal agencies that has monitored the Dead Zone since 1997. The task force says a 30 reduction of nitrogen runoff is needed if the Dead Zone is to shrink. Streams serve as natural filters to prevent nitrate pollution from reaching coastal waters. Bacteria in stream sediments remove nitrogen through denitrification, a process that converts nitrate to benign nitrogen gases that diffuse from the water into the air. However, increased levels of nitrogen runoff in local streams from urban and agriculture land use can overwhelm streams, which “become very inefficient and do not perform the ecological service we assume they do,” says Patrick Mulholland, an aquatic ecologist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Mulholland coordinated a team of 31 ecologists who monitored 72 streams in 8 regions of the United States. The streams received runoff from agricultural lands, urban areas such as golf courses and housing subdivisions, or wild-growth vegetation. The team injected a small amount of 15N, a safe isotope of nitrogen, into waterways to track nitrogen movement and removal as small streams flowed into larger ones. Although denitrification rates increased in tandem with rising nitrate concentrations, the process became very inefficient with a much smaller proportion of the nitrate removed from stream waters at higher nitrate concentrations. “Humans can easily overload stream and river networks, so a smaller proportion of the nitrate load is removed from the entire system,” says Mulholland. The team published these results in the 13 March 2008 issue of Nature. Many scientists suggest converting cornfields to feedstocks that need little or no fertilization, such as switchgrass. No longer a dubious prospect, switchgrass proved its economic worth in the first large-scale field trial of the crop, published in the 15 January 2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Ten farmers in Nebraska and the Dakotas grew 15- to 20-acre plots of switch-grass and recorded fuel, fertilizer, and herbicide inputs and grass production over a 5-year period. Plant geneticist Kenneth Vogel and colleagues at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln plugged these numbers into a biofuel analysis “meta-model” developed at the University of California, Berkeley, and described in the 27 January 2006 issue of Science. They calculated that the 3- to 5-foot-tall grass generated 540 more renewable energy than was needed to grow, harvest, and process it into ethanol. Moreover, switchgrass produced an average biomass equivalent of 320 gallons of ethanol per acre, similar to regional yields from corn. What’s more, they found that ethanol made from switchgrass emitted 94 less greenhouse gases compared with burning gasoline. The baseline study “clearly demonstrates that switchgrass grown for biomass energy is very net energy positive, and its potential as a biomass energy crop on marginal cropland is promising,” Vogel says. Moreover, switch-grass residue remaining after ethanol processing could fuel biorefineries, whereas corn biorefineries burn natural gas or other fossil fuels. Vogel says USDA researchers are breeding new switchgrass cultivars specifically for bioenergy that grow to over 8 feet tall, yielding more biomass per acre.
Nitrogen overuse leads to hypoxic dead zones
Rabalais et al. 10 (N. N. Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium; R. J. Diaz, Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary; L. A. Levin, Integrative Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; R. E. Turner, Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University; D. Gilbert, Institut Maurice-Lamontagne, Peches et Oceans Canada; J. Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, “Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia” Biogeosciences, February 12 2010, http://www.biogeosciences.net/7/585/2010/bg-7-585-2010.pdf)
Hypoxia development and continuation in many areas of the world’s coastal ocean is accelerated by human activities, especially where nutrient loading increased in the Anthropocene. This higher loading set in motion a cascading set of events related to eutrophication. The formation of hypoxic areas has been exacerbated by any combination of interactions that increase primary production and accumulation of organic carbon leading to increased respiratory demand for oxygen below a seasonal or permanent pycnocline. Nutrient loading is likely to increase further as population growth and resource intensification rises, especially with increased dependency on crops using fertilizers, burning of fossil fuels, urbanization, and waste water generation. It is likely that the occurrence and persistence of hypoxia will be even more widespread and have more impacts than presently observed. Global climate change will further complicate the causative factors in both natural and human-caused hypoxia. The likelihood of strengthened stratification alone, from increased surface water temperature as the global climate warms, is sufficient to worsen hypoxia where it currently exists and facilitate its formation in additional waters. Increased precipitation that increases freshwater discharge and flux of nutrients will result in increased primary production in the receiving waters up to a point. The interplay of increased nutrients and stratification where they occur will aggravate and accelerate hypoxia. Changes in wind fields may expand oxygen minimum zones onto more continental shelf areas. On the other hand, not all regions will experience increased precipitation, some oceanic water temperatures may decrease as currents shift, and frequency and severity of tropical storms may increase and temporarily disrupt hypoxia more often. The consequences of global warming and climate change are effectively uncontrollable at least in the near term. On the other hand, the consequences of eutrophication-induced hypoxia can be reversed if long-term, broad-scale, and persistent efforts to reduce substantial nutrient loads are developed and implemented. In the face of globally expanding hypoxia, there is a need for water and resource managers to act now to reduce nutrient loads to maintain, at least, the current status.
Ocean hypoxia triggers dead zones and collapse of marine biodiversity
Doney 10 – Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (S. Doney, “The Growing Human Footprint on Coastal and Open-Ocean Biogeochemistry” Science, June 18 2010, http://www.heatisonline.org/contentserver/objecthandlers/index.cfm?id=7774andmethod=full)
Coastal Hypoxia and Open-Ocean Deoxygenation Low subsurface O2, termed hypoxia, occurs naturally in open-ocean and coastal environments from a combination of weak ventilation and/or strong organic matter degradation (8, 9). Dissolved O2gas is essential for aerobic respiration, and low O2 levels negatively affect the physiology of higher animals, leading to so-called "dead-zones" where many macrofauna are absent. Thresholds for hypoxia vary by organism but are 60 µmol of O2 kg–1 or about 30 of surface saturation. Under suboxic conditions (5 µmol kg–1), microbes begin to use nitrate (NO3) rather than O2 as a terminal electron acceptor for organic matter respiration (denitrification), resulting in reactive nitrogen loss and N2O production. Toxic hydrogen sulfide (H2S) production occurs under anoxic (no O2) conditions. The organic matter respiration that generates hypoxia also elevates CO2, thus leading to coupled deoxygenation and ocean acidification in a future warmer, high-CO2 world. The synergistic effects of these multiple stressors may magnify the negative physiological and microbial responses beyond the impacts expected for each perturbation considered in isolation (38, 39). Fertilizer runoff and nitrogen deposition from fossil fuels are driving an expansion in the duration, intensity, and extent of coastal hypoxia, leading to marine habitat degradation and, in extreme cases, extensive fish and invertebrate mortality (8, 40, 41). About half the global riverine nitrogen input (50to 80 Tg of N year–1) is anthropogenic in origin (4, 42),and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition is concentrated in coastal waters downwind of industrial and intensive agricultural regions(30). The result is coastal eutrophication and enhanced organic matter production, export, and subsurface decomposition that consumes O2. Nutrient eutrophication is also associated with increased frequency of harmful algal blooms (43).
Loss of biodiversity leads to human extinction
Cardinale 13 – associate professor in the School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan, where he is director of the school's Conservation Ecology Program and teaches courses in conservation, restoration ecology, and ecosystem services (Bradley, “Opinion: Biodiversity Impacts Humanity,” The Scientist, No. 34448, http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/34448/title/Opinion~-~-Biodiversity-Impacts-Humanity/)
Recall the biosphere experiments from the 1990s, the most famous of which was perhaps Biosphere II. Philanthropist Ed Bass provided $200 million to construct the largest completely enclosed ecosystem ever created. Biologists and engineers spent 4 years designing and landscaping Biosphere II to have all of the systems needed to sustain life: agriculture for food production, rainforests to regulate the artificial atmosphere, even a mini-ocean to control temperature. On September 26th, 1991, eight researchers were locked inside the airtight, closed environment. Almost immediately after, levels of CO2 inside Biosphere II began to skyrocket and fluctuate wildly. Levels of oxygen began a precipitous decline from 21 percent to a dangerously low 14 percent. Most of the vertebrate species and all of the pollinating insects died within a year, and pests like cockroaches and ants boomed. The “mission” was ultimately terminated after just 24 months when it became clear that human health and welfare could no longer be guaranteed.¶ Whether one views Biosphere II as a monumental failure or magnificent learning experience, it was a sobering reminder that we still don’t have even a basic understanding of how to design a biological system that can sustain human life. Obviously, this means we’re not yet in a position to put a human colony on Mars. More importantly, it means we don’t yet understand how to live sustainably on our own planet. Earth, like Biosphere II, is a materially closed ecosystem. Nothing is lost, and nothing is gained. And nearly everything that is required to sustain human life is made available by other living organisms. Without photosynthetic bacteria and plants, there would be no breathable atmosphere. Without microbes, fungi, and animals, there would be no soil to grow crops, and nothing to pollinate those crops if they did exist. Without these essential players in our planet’s global ecosystem, the oceans would have no fish, and forests would have no wood. There would be no fossil fuel, no renewable biofuel, and even if we had fuel to burn, there would be nothing to clean the pollutants from combustion out of the water we drink or the air we breathe. ¶ Nature has provided the goods and services needed to sustain human life for so long that most people take them for granted. But growing evidence suggests that Earth’s natural capital, and the biological diversity that underpins these goods and services, are being eroded. Some even claim that Earth is in the midst of a 6th mass extinction. Though this claim is a bit misleading—over the past 400 years, we’ve lost 1-13 percent of known species, compared with 75 percent or more lost during the five prior mass extinctions—the concern is not about the total number of species that have already gone extinct. Rather, the concern is how quickly species are being lost—and we are losing species faster than ever. In the fossil record, we normally see one species per thousand go extinct every millennia. Rates of extinction in the past century have increased to 100 to 1,000 times faster than normal. Add to this the abnormally high number of threatened and endangered species, and projections suggest we could truly reach the point of a mass extinction in 240-540 years. ¶ So what? Beyond conserving species for the sake of biodiversity, does it matter if a large fraction of Earth’s life forms cease to exist in the next few centuries? Biologists have spent much of the past 20 years addressing this very question, and they have now run more than 500 experiments in which they have simulated the extinction of species in nearly every major biome on Earth. Results have been surprisingly consistent. Whenever ecosystems lose species, they generally become less efficient and less stable. Less diverse communities are not as good at capturing biologically essential resources like sunlight, water, and nutrients. In turn, the growth of plants slows, as does the animals that eat the plants. Less diverse systems are also less efficient at decomposing waste products and recycling essential nutrients; thus, they become more “leaky.” Less diverse ecosystems tend to be more variable through time, which causes them to exhibit greater fluctuations and higher levels of unpredictability. Collectively, these things cause ecosystems with fewer species to be less efficient and reliable at providing society with many fundamentally important goods and services, like the provision of crops and fisheries, control of many types of pest and disease, production of wood, and the ability to remove carbon from the atmosphere, to name a few. ¶ On the other hand, it’s important to acknowledge that biodiversity is not always “good” for society. Biodiversity is, after all, the very reason we have antibiotic resistance. There is also no evidence to suggest we must conserve all species to maintain ecosystem services. Species have come and gone throughout Earth’s history, and yet, higher life continues to exist. Furthermore, humans have shown a unique ability to develop low diversity systems through domestication and bioengineering that can provide select products and services quite well.¶ Even so, it is naive and dangerous to ignore our fundamental dependence on other life forms. It is clear that the loss of certain key species can have strong impacts on biological processes, and while it is sometimes obvious which species play the biggest roles, other times we don’t realize their importance until they are gone. It is also naive and dangerous to think we can bioengineer a planet that will be able sustain the growing human population. If we were unable to build a life-support system that could support 8 people in Biosphere II, who believes we can engineer a planet able to support 9 billion? ¶ We are taking the very genes and species that have made Earth an inhabitable and biologically productive planet over the past 3.8 billion years, and we are lining them up on the edge of a cliff from which there is no return. If the ever growing human population is to continue to prosper, we must better appreciate how our own well-being is directly linked to the great variety of life that is the most striking feature of our planet.
Anoxia-induced climate collapse causes extinction
Knoll et al. 7 (Andrew H. Knoll, Department of Organimsic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University; Richard K. Bambach, Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution; Jonathan L. Payne, Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University; Sara Pruss, Department of Organimsic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University; Woodward W. Fischer; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, “Paleophysiology and end-Permian mass extinction” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 256 (2007) 295–313, February 11 2007, Science Direct)
The wide distribution of black shales in lowermost Triassic shelf and platform successions has prompted interest in anoxia as a trigger for end-Permian mass extinction 34,35. Biomarker lipids diagnostic of anoxygenic photosynthetic bacteria also occur in latest Permian and basal Triassic marine strata, providing independent evidence that many ocean basins were prone to anoxia within the photic zone 36. Moreover, geochemical evidence suggests that the shallow water anoxia developed at the erathem boundary was superimposed on a longer term development of oxygen-poor deep waters, at least in the hemisphere-scale Panthalassic Ocean 37–39. The atmospheric reservoir of oxygen is large relative to plausible fluxes of reducing agents on short (b1 Ma) timescales. Thus, while boundary-level marine anoxia may have been enhanced by a long-term decline in PO2 40, it probably needs a proximal trigger to set it in place. Berner's 40 model estimates of Permian and Triassic PO2, for example, show large and protracted Late Permian decline, but suggest little change coincident with the near-global expansion of shallow marine black shales. Moreover, his modeled PO2 nadir (0.13 bars) in the Middle Triassic occurs after shelf anoxia receded to background levels. Other estimates of Permo-Triassic PO2 show trajectories comparable to Berner's, but with abundances that never decline below present day levels 41. Perhaps the proximal trigger for the expansion of shallow water anoxia was global increase in sea surface temperature induced by CO2 influx into the ocean/ atmosphere system. The oxygen content of subsurface ocean waters reflects the balance between downward organic flux, which drives the respiratory consumption of oxygen, and the upward diffusion of oxygen supplied to bottom waters by downwelling 42. Global warming would have driven up ocean temperatures, increasing both rates of respiration (see below) and the temperature of downwelling waters — thereby decreasing the oxygen content of the O2 minimum zone. Such a scenario implies that anoxia developed dynamically due to relative rates of oxygen supply and demand, not principally by the breakdown of physical mixing, which is difficult to sustain e.g., 43. Prolonged disruption of primary production would have the opposite effect, limiting available substrates for aerobic respiration and, hence, respiratory oxygen consumption. For this reason, the nearly global occurrence of black shales in basal Triassic successions provides prima facie evidence for continued photosynthesis in surface waters. Unless the atmosphere itself were depleted of O2, which it clearly was not, it would be impossible to make the shallow mixing zone of the oceans anoxic on a global scale. Thus, although anoxia may have been severe and widespread below the mixing zone, shallow waters would have served as biological refugia except at sites of pronounced upwelling. Anoxia, therefore, can be viewed as neither universal killer nor independent actor in this play. Trigger mechanisms for anoxia are intimately related to those that produce warming, and once in place, anoxic waters would develop increasing abundances of CO2 and sulfide 21,44. Thus, kill mechanisms linked to anoxia would include not only regional asphyxia, but also global hypercapnia, H2S poisoning, and perhaps, under extreme conditions, sulfide-driven loss of stratospheric ozone 21.
Independently, oceans are key to survival
Sielen 13 – MA @ Johns Hopkins, Senior Fellow for International Environmental Policy. He is a former career senior executive at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in Washington, D.C. where he served as EPA Deputy Assistant Administrator for International Activities from 1995-2001. His extensive experience on ocean policy and negotiation includes chairing the London Ocean Dumping Convention meetings of contracting parties from 1997-2000. In the course of his career, he has led U.S. delegations to the OECD Environment Committee, the NATO Committee on the Challenges of Modern Society, and to various oceans related negotiations
(Alan, “The Devolution of the Seas,” Foreign Affairs, Proquest)
Of all the threats looming over the planet today, one of the most alarming is the seemingly inexorable descent of the world’s oceans into ecological perdition. Over the last several decades, human activities have so altered the basic chemistry of the seas that they are now experiencing evolution in reverse: a return to the barren primeval waters of hundreds of millions of years ago. A visitor to the oceans at the dawn of time would have found an underwater world that was mostly lifeless. Eventually, around 3.5 billion years ago, basic organisms began to emerge from the primordial ooze. This microbial soup of algae and bacteria needed little oxygen to survive. Worms, jellyfish, and toxic fireweed ruled the deep. In time, these simple organisms began to evolve into higher life forms, resulting in the wondrously rich diversity of fish, corals, whales, and other sea life one associates with the oceans today. Yet that sea life is now in peril. Over the last 50 years -- a mere blink in geologic time -- humanity has come perilously close to reversing the almost miraculous biological abundance of the deep. Pollution, overfishing, the destruction of habitats, and climate change are emptying the oceans and enabling the lowest forms of life to regain their dominance. The oceanographer Jeremy Jackson calls it “the rise of slime”: the transformation of once complex oceanic ecosystems featuring intricate food webs with large animals into simplistic systems dominated by microbes, jellyfish, and disease. In effect, humans are eliminating the lions and tigers of the seas to make room for the cockroaches and rats. The prospect of vanishing whales, polar bears, bluefin tuna, sea turtles, and wild coasts should be worrying enough on its own. But the disruption of entire ecosystems threatens our very survival, since it is the healthy functioning of these diverse systems that sustains life on earth. Destruction on this level will cost humans dearly in terms of food, jobs, health, and quality of life. It also violates the unspoken promise passed from one generation to the next of a better future.
Old alt causes should be ignored – oceans are on the brink
IPSO 10/3/13 (International Programme on the State of the Ocean, research by Jelle Bijma, Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research; Hans?O. Pörtner, Alfred?Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research; Chris Yesson, Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London; Alex D. Rogers, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford “The State of the Ocean 2013: Perils, Prognoses and Proposals” October 3 2013, http://www.stateoftheocean.org/pdfs/IPSO-Summary-Oct13-FINAL.pdf)
The scientific evidence that marine ecosystems are being degraded as a direct result of human activities is overwhelming; and the consequences both for the vital and valuable ocean goods and services we rely on, including for the maintenance of a healthy Earth system, are alarming. Recent assessments by the UN’s climate change panel the IPCC, for example, show that these changes are progressive and relentless: whilst terrestrial temperature increases may be experiencing a pause this is not true for the ocean, which continues to warm regardless. For the most part, however, the public and policymakers are failing to recognize –or choosing to ignore— the severity of the situation and are not taking the action necessary to address it. The International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) is publishing a set of five papers on ocean stresses, impacts and solutions by leading international experts to present the key findings of the workshops it held in 20111 and 2012* in partnership with IUCN and its World Commission on Protected Areas. The purpose of these workshops, and the papers published today, is to promote a holistic, integrated view of both the challenges faced and the actions needed to achieve a healthy global ocean for the future. The central messages from the workshops are that the risks to the ocean and the ecosystems it supports have been significantly underestimated; that the extent of marine degradation as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts; and that it is happening at a much faster rate than previously predicted. The 2012 workshop additionally reviewed new material and evidence, available since the workshop in 2011, and concluded that the threats to the ocean were even faster, bigger and closer than the first workshop set out: faster with an accelerated rate of change, bigger in scale, and closer in time in terms of the impacts being felt.

Tournament: Greenhill Round Robin | Round: 1 | Opponent: Bronx Law AL | Judge: Abby Schirmer  Kirk Gibson
Plan
The United States federal government should assist the Mexican biofuels sector.
Biofuels
Advantage one – Food
Post-NAFTA corrections will collapse the Mexican agricultural sector – the US can reverse this trend by assisting their advanced biofuels sector while maintaining Mexican land ownership
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
Additionally, Mexican agricultural resources are scant in ¶ comparison to its North American counterparts
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to transport ethanol throughout both ¶ countries, and to points of export.
We have an obligation to reduce Latin American poverty – complacency represents acceptance – a political approach is key
O’Donnell, 96 – (Guillermo, Helen Kellogg Professor of Government and International Studies, Academic Director of the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame; “POVERTY AND INEQUALITY IN LATIN AMERICA: SOME POLITICAL REFLECTIONS,” http://-www.rrojasdatabank.info/225odonnell.pdf)
Extensive poverty and deep social inequality are characteristics of Latin America that go  back to
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of those governments but also whatever economic stability or growth has been achieved.
Our demand as ordinary citizens in an affluent country is a key starting point for achieving a more egalitarian economic system
Pogge, 08 ( Thomas Pogge, Professor of Philosophy and International Affairs at Yale University, 2008, “World Poverty and Human Rights” second edition, pg.4)
¶Others feel that there is no need to think long and hard about our
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eccentric and utopian cause will be an exemplar of what justice¶ commands.
This specific policy has profound effects – Mexican production transitions the US away from corn ethanol
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
Producing ethanol from sugar, for many reasons, is simply ¶ a better option
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global food markets,159 while contributing ¶ to the revitalization of farmland.
That solves global food shortages
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
The problems discussed above, like any potential solutions, ¶ are all cyclical and
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food supplies, and easing pressure ¶ on U.S. farmlands.
Biofuel-induced shocks kills a billion people
Runge and Senauer 7 – *Professor of Applied Economics @ U Minn, Professor of Applied Economics @ U Minn
(C. Ford, Distinguished McKnight University Professor of Applied Economics and Law and Director of the Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Minnesota; Benjamin, Professor of Applied Economics and Co-director of the Food Industry Center at the University of Minnesota, ‘How Biofuels could starve the poor,’ Foreign Affairs, May/June, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html)
Biofuels may have even more devastating effects in the rest of the world, especially
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and many more will die from a multitude of hunger-related diseases.
Warming
Advantage two – warming
Warming is human-induced and happening now – top scientists confirm it
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech,
*John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy
Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis
*Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al.,
(“Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, 8.2)
An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public
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1 based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.
There is a low threshold for RUNAWAY warming – newest studies prove
Goldblatt 13 – PhD in Environmental Sciences, Research Associate, Virtual Planetary Laboratory and Astronomy Department @ U Washington
(Colin, et al., “Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates,” Nature Geoscience 6, 661–667, doi:10.1038/ngeo1892)
Here, we present the most complete study of the runaway greenhouse for 25 years
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(with a major component being condensable), and no empirical comparison cases.
Warming is an existential risk – quickening reductions is key to avoiding extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122
The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2
AND
adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.
The plan enables Mexican biofuels that avoid the drawbacks of traditional biofuels
GNEB 11 – Good Neighbor Environmental Board, The Good Neighbor Environmental Board was created
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S. Environmental Protection Agency by Executive Order 12916 on May 13, 1994
(“The Potential Environmental and Economic Benefits of Renewable Energy Development in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region,” http://www.epa.gov/ofacmo/gneb/gneb14threport/English-GNEB-14th-Report.pdf)
Unlike for much of the United States, bioenergy potential along the border rarely contemplates
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carbon ¶ dioxide, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides emissions in biofuels.
The 1ac is a vital starting point – Mexico is in a unique position to spread a green and equal economy globally through international institutions
Pellicer 6 – Professor @ Centre for Research and Teaching in Economics
(Olga, “New Powers for Global Change? Mexico--a Reluctant Middle Power?,” FES Briefing Paper, p. 6)BB
Mexico’s ability to deal with the problems posed by poverty and inequality will have an
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either strengthen its international image, or maintain it on a minor plane.
This internationally-centered approach solves warming
Yulsman 7 – Professor @ UC-Boulder
(Tom, “Grass is Greener,” Audubon Magazine, Sept/Oct, http://www.audubonmagazine.org/articles/climate/virtues-switchgrass-alternative-fuel?page=1)
If all goes well (no trivial if), within five years or so farmers
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at least four times as much energy than is required to produce it.
US has a moral obligation to solve warming–it’s modeled and it’s the largest contributor to emissions
Harris 2k – Professor of Environmental Studies
Paul G. Harris, professor of international and environmental studies at Lingnan University, Hong Kong; “Climate Change and American Foreign Policy,” pp. 3-4
The case of the United States is particularly important. The United States is the
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they have a moral responsibility to act first and to act in earnest.

Global warming risks profound injustice on people of color in the United States and internationally
Burkett 8 – Professor of Law
Maxine Burkett, Associate Professor, University of Colorado Law School, 2008, “Just Solutions to Climate Change: A Climate Justice Proposal for a Domestic Clean Development Mechanism,” 56 Buffalo L. Rev. 169, Lexis
The profound injustices that inhere in climate change's disproportionate effects are obvious, yet two
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process of crafting solutions, "fair outcomes will only ever be coincidental." 

Warming is the largest impact – it requires transition away from current trends in policy making – we must orient ethical questions towards the effects of a transforming climate on the most vulnerable nations in the world – this ethic assures we prevent the annihilation of the most vulnerable
Gordon 7 - Professor of Law at Villanova University
Ruth Gordon, “The Climate of Environmental Justice: Taking Stock: Climate Change and the Poorest Nations: Further Reflections on Global Inequality”. Colorado Law Review, Lexis
There is no longer any question that the earth's climate is warming. We can
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a slow death in ecologically vulnerable and technologically lacking low-income nations.
Our focus on government action facilitates individual agency – apocalyptic warming representations motivate individual lifestyle changes
Romm 12 – PhD in Physics @ MIT
Joe, “Apocalypse Not: The Oscars, The Media And The Myth of ‘Constant Repetition of Doomsday Messages’ on Climate”, http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2012/02/26/432546/apocalypse-not-oscars-media-myth-of-repetition-of-doomsday-messages-on-climate/#more-432546
The two greatest myths about global warming communications are 1) constant repetition of doomsday
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by most of the rest of the media, intelligentsia and popular culture.
The value of this debate does not begin or end with the plan – care for future generations facilitates ethical decision-making
-this is a defense of fiat, and of future-focused thinking
Krznaric 10 – PhD in Sociology from Oxford
Roman, PhD in Sociology from Oxford, founding faculty member of The School of Life in London, where he teaches courses on Work and Politics, and is the resident expert on Empathy, Future Ethics, pg. 161
We need something more than moral or economic arguments to generate social action on climate
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connection may stir us into changing how we live and what we do.
We must take into account those that are not immediately visible – focusing on local and global politics is necessary to develop ethical climate politics
-this is a defense of international focus
-this card says that lack of empathy is the most likely cause of continued emissions and willful ignorance of the impacts of our consumption decisions on others
Krznaric 10 – PhD in Sociology from Oxford
Roman, PhD in Sociology from Oxford, founding faculty member of The School of Life in London, where he teaches courses on Work and Politics, and is the resident expert on Empathy, Future Ethics, pg. 163-166
Climate change is as much a problem across space as it is one through time
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drought-struck farmers in Kenya can hear us chuckling in the sun.
Empathy framing is a pre-requisite to justice and peace – ends the desire for exploitation and violence
Rulka-Hathaway 1
Kathleen M., August AN ARGUMENT FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF MORAL DISCUSSION INTO THE FORUM OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPY, http://minds.wisconsin.edu/bitstream/handle/1793/39229/2001rulkahathk.pdf.txt;jsessionid=dcoz8y096e8y?sequence=2
When caring is fostered, empathy is born and there is a positive influence on
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and cooperation is defined, that which makes social existence and justice possible.

Tournament: Greenhill Round Robin | Round: 3 | Opponent: Westminister HL | Judge: Christina Tallungan  Toby Whisenhunt
1ac
1
Advantage one – Ex-Im
Warming is anthropogenic
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech,
*John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy
Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis
*Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al.,
(“Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, 8.2)
An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public
AND
1 based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.
There is a low threshold for RUNAWAY warming – newest studies prove
Goldblatt 13 – PhD in Environmental Sciences, Research Associate, Virtual Planetary Laboratory and Astronomy Department @ U Washington
(Colin, et al., “Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates,” Nature Geoscience 6, 661–667, doi:10.1038/ngeo1892)
Here, we present the most complete study of the runaway greenhouse for 25 years
AND
(with a major component being condensable), and no empirical comparison cases.
Adherence to existing multilateral agreements avoids 4 degree warming – anything higher is catastrophic
Kim 12 – PhD in Anthropology @ Harvard, former president of Dartmouth, Now President of the World Bank
(Jim Yong, “Turn Down the Heat,” p. ix)
The 4°C scenarios are devastating: the inundation of coastal cities; increasing
AND
in mind. The World Bank Group will step up to the challenge.
Extinction
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)
The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2
AND
adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.
Congress has requested an increase in green financing, but the export-import bank has fallen short – increased financing is key to CLIMATE LEADERSHIP
Pacific Environment 12 - protects the living environment of the Pacific Rim, mentors, trains, campaigns, builds networks, and provides direct financial support to activist leaders and non-governmental organizations to help them protect their communities from environmental and health threats and hold international governments, corporations, and financing institutions accountable for their policies and actions
(“FACT SHEET: U.S. Export-Import Bank’s Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Financing,” http://pacificenvironment.org/downloads/FACT20SHEET:20ExIm20Bank20fossil20fuel20financing.pdf)
Ex-Im Bank’s fast-growing fossil fuel financing undercuts President Obama’s pledges to
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, and quickening the distribution of ¶ clean energy technologies across the world.
Greening the bank is key – creates momentum for multilateral climate agreements
Gong 6 – JD @ Berkeley, BA @ Princeton
(Karis Anne, “EXPORTING SUSTAINABILITY: A proposal to reduce the climate impact of the Export?Import Bank of the United States,” http://www.princeton.edu/~mauzeral/wws402d_s06/FinalDraftKarisGong.pdf)
First, climate change is a result of aggregate emissions and aggregate concentrations ¶ of
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multilateral development banks” including the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.183
Independently – increased green Ex-Im financing is key to cleantech primacy
Lowder 11 - member of the Market and Policy Impact Analysis Group in the Strategic Energy Analysis Center
(Travis, “The United States Export-Import Bank and Renewable Energy Finance,” NREL, https://financere.nrel.gov/finance/content/united-states-export-import-bank-and-renewable-energy-finance)
While the last three years have seen heightened Ex-Im activity in the RE
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deployment of U.S.-manufactured renewable energy products in international markets.
Green leadership solves counterbalancing – specifically from Russia and China
Klarevas 9 – Professor of Global Affairs
(Louis, Professor at the Center for Global Affairs @ New York University, “Securing American Primacy While Tackling Climate Change: Toward a National Strategy of Greengemony”, Huffington Post, 12-15, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/louis-klarevas/securing-american-primacy_b_393223.html)
By not addressing climate change more aggressively and creatively, the United States is squandering
AND
means of leverage that can be employed to keep potential foes in check.
Russia-China counterbalancing leads to great power conflict
Blank 9 – Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
(Stephen Blank, “Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?,” online: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf)
Consequently, the danger is that this ideological-strategic rivalry will harden, leading
AND
of joint military action in response to a regime crisis in the DPRK.
2
Advantage two – Mexico
Post-NAFTA agricultural corrections will collapse the Mexican economy – US biofuel investment solves
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
Additionally, Mexican agricultural resources are scant in ¶ comparison to its North American counterparts
AND
to transport ethanol throughout both ¶ countries, and to points of export.
Mexican collapse saps critical diplomatic capital
Haddick 8 - University of Illinois, managing editor of the Small Wars Journal, was a U.S. Marine Corps officer, served in the 3rd and 23rd Marine Regiments, and deployed to Asia and Africa. He has advised the State Department, the National Intelligence Council, and U.S. Central Command
(Robert, “Now that would change everything,” December 21, http://westhawk.blogspot.com/2008/12/now-that-would-change-everything.html)
On November 25th, United States Joint Forces Command released to the public The Joint
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Asia. However, there would be no running from a Mexican collapse.
That leads to Asian wars
Lohman 13 – MA in Foreign Affairs @ UVA
(Walter, “Honoring America’s Superpower Responsibilities,” http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/2013/06/honoring-americas-superpower-responsibilities)
When you withdraw from the world, either by imposing trade barriers or drawing down
AND
they would have to do without the benefit of the American nuclear deterrent.
These wars escalate
Mead 10
(Mead, senior fellow @ the Council on Foreign Relations, 2010 Walter, American Interest, “Obama in Asia”, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2010/11/09/obama-in-asia/)
The decision to go to Asia is one that all thinking Americans can and should
AND
, and that reality is what President Obama’s trip is intended to address.
Independently – Mexican oil-dependent economy is unsustainable – PEMEX decline collapses US-Mexico relations
Miller and DeLeon 9 - *Stephanie, consultant on U.S.-Latin America relations and was formerly the Research Associate for the Americas Project on the National Security Team.  Born in Venezuela with family from Colombia, Miller earned her degree from Duke University in International Comparative Studies with a focus on Latin America. She currently lives in Bogotá, Colombia, Rudy, Senior Vice President of National Security and International Policy at American Progress
(“Transcending the Rio Grande,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/04/pdf/mexico.pdf)
Energy is a third area where the U.S. and Mexican economies are
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surrounding internal Mexican dynamics and account for them in shaping a strategic vision.
A new biofuel alliance is key
Morales 11 – PhD, Professor @ El Colegio de Mexico
(Isidro, “The Energy Factor in Mexico-US Relations,” Baker Institute, http://www.bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-MoralesFactor-04292011.pdf)
With the inception of NAFTA in 1994, and the emergence of a new security
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.S. will pursue their mutual interests while equally reaping the benefits.
Specifically – export-import partnerships spill up into the broader relationship
Donnelly 10 – Program Associate, Mexico Institute @ Wilson Center
(Robert, “U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on Renewable Energy: Building a Green Agenda,” http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/us-mexico-cooperation-renewable-energy-building-green-agenda)
Discussant Johanna Mendelson Forman stressed the linkages connecting climate change, energy, and economic
AND
S. companies suffer from a lack of adequate export-import financing.
Relations solve organized crime and drug networks
Olson 9 (Eric L., M.A., International Affairs, American University; B.A., History and Secondary Education, Trinity College, Associate Director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, as a Senior Specialist in the Department for Promotion of Good Governance at the Organization of American States, January 2009, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/The20U.S.20and20Mexico.20Towards20a20Strategic20Partnership.pdf)
It is time to strengthen the U.S. relationship with Mexico. There
AND
a comprehensive and bilateral approach ¶ that limits the reach of organized crime.
Money laundering funds transnational organized crime and terror operations – cutting off profits is key
Farah – President and Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center – 10
Douglas, MONEY LAUNDERING AND BULK CASH SMUGGLING: CHALLENGES FOR THE MÉRIDA INITIATIVE, October, http://www.seguridadregional-fes.org/upload/5782-001_g.pdf#page=338
It is widely accepted that cutting off the flow of money from the sale of
AND
the flow of bulk cash across the U.S.-Mexico border.
Latin American money laundering operations create strategic alliances between Russian organized crime outfits and regional criminal organizations that undermine growth, U.S. security, and hemispheric stability
Farah – President and Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center – 10
Douglas, MONEY LAUNDERING AND BULK CASH SMUGGLING: CHALLENGES FOR THE MÉRIDA INITIATIVE, October, http://www.seguridadregional-fes.org/upload/5782-001_g.pdf#page=338 p. 158-159
Inroads by Russian organized crime, particularly in the field of money laundering, have
AND
at their command, it would be a logical step in their expansion.
This presents the greatest risk of nuclear smuggling – only organized crime networks can acquire stolen fissile material and have ties to terrorist groups
LYUDMILA ZAITSEVA and KEVIN HAND, Fellows at CISAC Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University – ‘3
Nuclear Smuggling Chains Suppliers, Intermediaries, and End-Users, AMERICAN BEHAVIORAL SCIENTIST, Vol. 46 No. 6, February 2003 822-844
Networks trafficking in drugs, weapons, and other illicit commodities are well suited for
AND
of HEU that they obtained (Lee, 1999, p. 68).
Nuclear terrorism causes global nuclear escalation – national retaliation will be irrational
Morgan, Professor of Foreign Studies at Hankuk University, ‘9 (Dennis Ray, December, “World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the human race” Futures, Vol 41 Issue 10, p 683-693, ScienceDirect)
In a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question "Is
AND
, taking a savage toll upon the environment and fragile ecosphere as well.

3
Advantage three – Agriculture
Mexican production transitions the US away from corn ethanol
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
Producing ethanol from sugar, for many reasons, is simply ¶ a better option
AND
global food markets,159 while contributing ¶ to the revitalization of farmland.
This leads to sustainable framing – solves food-for-fuel tradeoffs
McDonald 9 – JD and MBA @ U Mississippi, LLM in International Legal Studies @ American
(Jeff, “Corn, Sugar, and Ethanol: How Policy Change Can Foster Sustainable Agriculture and Biofuel Production in Mexico and the United States,” ILSP Law Journal, p. 127-134)
The problems discussed above, like any potential solutions, ¶ are all cyclical and
AND
food supplies, and easing pressure ¶ on U.S. farmlands.
The impact is global food shocks
Wise 12 - Policy Research Director, Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University
(Timothy, “US corn ethanol fuels food crisis in developing countries,” http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/10/201210993632838545.html)
Besides Egypt, North African countries saw particularly high ethanol-related losses: Algeria
AND
, so it has forced thousands of Ugandans deeper into poverty and hunger.
A diversity of studies confirm corn biofuels are a key internal link to global food shocks
Bryce 12 - senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, is the author, most recently, of Power Hungry: The Myths of “Green” Energy and the Real Fuels of the Future
(Robert, “Democrats and Republicans Support Harmful Ethanol Subsidies for the Sake of Votes,” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/05/democrats-and-republicans-support-harmful-ethanol-subsidies-for-the-sake-of-votes.html)
At least 17 studies—done by organizations ranging from Purdue University to the World
AND
level and variability, and this has spilled over into other commodity markets.”
Biofuel-induced shocks kills a billion people
Runge and Senauer 7 – *Professor of Applied Economics @ U Minn, Professor of Applied Economics @ U Minn
(C. Ford, Distinguished McKnight University Professor of Applied Economics and Law and Director of the Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy at the University of Minnesota; Benjamin, Professor of Applied Economics and Co-director of the Food Industry Center at the University of Minnesota, ‘How Biofuels could starve the poor,’ Foreign Affairs, May/June, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070501faessay86305/c-ford-runge-benjamin-senauer/how-biofuels-could-starve-the-poor.html)
Biofuels may have even more devastating effects in the rest of the world, especially
AND
and many more will die from a multitude of hunger-related diseases.
Food shocks escalate to all-out war
Klare 12 - professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College
(Michael, “The Hunger Wars in our Future,” http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-57489345/the-hunger-wars-in-our-future/?pageNum=1andtag=page)
The Great Drought of 2012 has yet to come to an end, but we
AND
droughts, recurring food shortages, and billions of famished, desperate people.
Plan
The Export Import Bank of the United States should substantially increase financing for advanced biofuels in Mexico.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Ban Corn CP
DAs
Warming – CP doesn’t mandate any new Ex Im financing – failing to meet the 10 target undercuts Obama’s climate cred – Pac Env and Gong
Food – other countries will still produce corn ethanol absent US tech exports
Perm do both –
Links to the net benefit
Meeting the clean energy mandate is key to US clean-tech leadership
CAP 8
(Center for American Progress, “Modernizing the Export-Import Bank,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2008/01/02/3845/modernizing-the-export-import-bank/)
The Center for American Progress’ recommendation for a key Export-Import Bank provision that
AND
is part of Progressive Growth, CAP’s economic plan for the next administration.
Mexico – their econ is collapsing now – US FDI and assistance is key to solidify relations and prevent terrorism and drugs – Miller and McDonald  
Lifting the subsidies won’t edge out corn ethanol
Morris 11 (Frank Morris, “Ethanol Industry Torn Over Losing Subsidy Billions” NPR Morning Edition, July 21 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/07/21/138543233/ethanol-industry-torn-over-losing-subsidy-billions)
A New Position On Losing Subsidy Until recently, the ethanol industry said it would
AND
political weight and effort into maintaining this tax credit, and they lost."
They’ve already ended subsidies – didn’t solve – but cutting the mandate will be a political firestorm – links to politics
Morris 11 (Frank Morris, “Ethanol Industry Torn Over Losing Subsidy Billions” NPR Morning Edition, July 21 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/07/21/138543233/ethanol-industry-torn-over-losing-subsidy-billions)
In June, the Senate voted overwhelmingly to end the $6 billion ethanol subsidy
AND
than the subsidy did — and it's not likely to change anytime soon.
Ending the mandate doesn’t kill corn
Clark 7/23/13 – Top Producer Business and Issues Editor (Ed Clark, “What Happens to Corn Prices without the Ethanol Mandate?” July 23 2013, http://www.agweb.com/article/power_hour_what_happens_to_corn_prices_without_the_ethanol_mandate/)
The debate about the future of biofuels mandates is running hot and heavy in Congress
AND
continue to be rational when it comes to buying it," Babcock says.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Condition CP
Perm do the plan and ask Mexico to _ – solves the net benefit – aff is a prerequisite to the CP because it solidifies relations, they’re more likely to cooperate
Perm do both – double solvency
Perm do the plan in a world where Mexico says yes – the CP adds uncertainty and delay which means we can permute
Perm do cp – all export loans already contain conditions
Brannon 11 – PhD in Economics @ Indiana
(Ike and Elizabeth Lowell, “Export-Import Bank: Obstacles and Options for Reform,” American Action Forum, http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Ex-Im20Final20Draft21.pdf)
Congress imposes a host of criteria that Ex-Im must ¶ take into account before providing financing, such as¶ requirements for reasonable assurance of repayment ¶ without competing with private capital, foreign ¶ content restrictions, transportation of exports using ¶ U.S. vessels, exclusion of military products, ¶ consideration of environmental impact, and ¶ allocation of 10 percent of financing for renewable ¶ energy and energy-efficient products and 20 percent¶ for small businesses.
Government says no – perceived as interference and crushes relations
Starr 9 - director of the U.S.-Mexico Network and an associate professor of teaching in the School of International Relations and in Public Diplomacy
(Pamela, “Mexico and the United States: A window of opportunity?,” http://www.pacificcouncil.org/document.doc?id=35)
Beyond the current economic crisis, the United States can best promote regional ¶ economic
AND
focusing overall on efforts that complement private sector investment and Mexican government programs.
Certainty key
Solecki et al. 13 (Mary Solecki, Environmental Entrepreneurs, non-partisan national community of 850 business people who believe in protecting the environment while building economic prosperity; Anna Scodel, Goldman School of Public Policy; Bob Epstein, Environmental Entrepreneurs, “Advanced Biofuel Market Report 2013: Capacity through 2016” 2013,
Risk capital As with many markets, regulatory uncertainty can create obstacles to accessing capital
AND
capital investment, projects will not achieve the level of commercial production required.
Certainty is key to next-generation biofuels
Mazza 7 – Research Director for Climate Solutions
(Patrick, “Biofuels Market Breakthrough Opens Way to Cellulosic Fuels Revolution,” http://climatesolutions.org/resources/reports/sustainable-biofuels/TheCellulosicRevolution.pdf
Beyond that point, it is generally agreed, biofuels growth will depend on new
AND
the strong political constituencies ¶ required to move ethanol to the next stage.
Condition-contingent CPs are illegitimate – infinite number of conditions, no affirmative-based solvency literature, forces aff to read DAs against themself and skirts topic specific education – counter-interp, they need an aff specific solvency advocate – voting issue – set a precedent

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Consult CP
Consult CPs are illegitimate – 192 countries alone, no affirmative-based solvency literature, forces aff to read DAs against themself and skirts topic specific education – voting issue – set a precedent
Perm do the plan and then do the cp
Permutation: do the counterplan, and then do the plan – they introduced the issue of delay into the debate
Permutation: do the plan and the part of the CP that consults in a world where they agree
Consultation involves two outcomes the neg fiats- either they fiat the plan or something not the plan. We only perm fiating the plan. If they win say yes, perm solves. If we win say no, case outweighs.
Certainty is key to Ex Im
Gong 6 – JD @ Berkeley, BA @ Princeton
(Karis Anne, “EXPORTING SUSTAINABILITY: A proposal to reduce the climate impact of the Export?Import Bank of the United States,” http://www.princeton.edu/~mauzeral/wws402d_s06/FinalDraftKarisGong.pdf)
The observed dependency on the PTC to stimulate wind energy installation reveals ¶ the role
AND
instilling a sense of stability ¶ that would decrease their perception of risk.
Uncertainty causes investment flight
Felix 13 - coordinator of the Climate Change and Renewable Energy Practice in Mexico for Baker and McKenzie
(Raul, “Assessing the Impact of Mexico's Biofuels Law,” Last Updated date, http://biomassmagazine.com/articles/1678/assessing-the-impact-of-mexico's-biofuels-law)
Although Mexico has yet to participate in large-scale biofuels projects, there is
AND
makers-instability that could cause certain investments to flee to other countries.
Certainty key
Solecki et al. 13 (Mary Solecki, Environmental Entrepreneurs, non-partisan national community of 850 business people who believe in protecting the environment while building economic prosperity; Anna Scodel, Goldman School of Public Policy; Bob Epstein, Environmental Entrepreneurs, “Advanced Biofuel Market Report 2013: Capacity through 2016” 2013,
Risk capital As with many markets, regulatory uncertainty can create obstacles to accessing capital
AND
capital investment, projects will not achieve the level of commercial production required.
Certainty is key to next-generation biofuels
Mazza 7 – Research Director for Climate Solutions
(Patrick, “Biofuels Market Breakthrough Opens Way to Cellulosic Fuels Revolution,” http://climatesolutions.org/resources/reports/sustainable-biofuels/TheCellulosicRevolution.pdf
Beyond that point, it is generally agreed, biofuels growth will depend on new
AND
the strong political constituencies ¶ required to move ethanol to the next stage.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC International CP
Mexico adv is DA
a) Mexico econ – US aid and investment key – boost the border region in both countries – McDonald
b) Mexico relations – biofuels alliance and ex im partnership key to partnership – Morales and Donnelly
2nd is Ex Im – CP doesn’t solve
a) Greening the bank key to Obama’s climate cred – solves warming – Gong
b) US clean tech leadership key to solve Russia/China energy nexus – Klarevas
(if not in 1AC) Only the US solves – technical assistance and certainty
Farnsworth 13 – MPA in IR @ Princeton, former State Department official, Vice President of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society
(Eric, “ENERGY SECURITY OPPORTUNITIES IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN,” House Testimony, Lexis)
More broadly, the United States has a strategic interest in working with willing nations
AND
technical assistance to improve the investment climate and ¶ the rule of law.
The US is the world leader in advanced biofuels
Novak 10 – director of alternative energy at Emerson Process Management, a business of Emerson (Alan Novak, “The Real Promise Of Advanced Biofuels” Forbes, November 18 2010, http://www.forbes.com/2010/11/17/ethanol-energy-challenges-technology-biofuels.html)
As the United States seeks national energy security and more environmentally friendly fuel sources,
AND
country must triple its use of biofuels to 36 billion gallons by 2022.
Perm do both – double solvency
Perm have the Ex Im offer financing from {X COUNTRY} – solves the link to politics
Perm solves- ExIm offers financing to any foreign company
ITA 13
(International Trade Administration, “U.S. Financing Programs”, http://web.ita.doc.gov/tacgi/eamain.nsf/6e1600e39721316c852570ab0056f719/6cabdb9845a9875c85257452005e5962)
Another important policy that U.S. textile and apparel firms should be aware
AND
all eligible goods and services in the U.S. supply contract.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC CO2 Ag
Warming tanks ag – temperature rise and water scarcity o/w
No benefits
CSW 13 - nonprofit public interest education and advocacy project dedicated to holding public officials accountable for using climate research effectively and with integrity in dealing with the challenge of global climate disruption
(Climate Science Watch, “Tired, disproven argument on “benefits” of CO2 resurfaces in Wall Street Journal,”
Carbon dioxide concentrations are approaching 400 parts per million, higher than any found in
AND
of simplistic and repeatedly disproven argument has no place in our national debate.
Warming leads to weather disasters – this is comparatively worse for agriculture than the benefits of co2 fertilization
-top ag experts agree
Gillis 11
(Justin Gillis, Editor @ NYT, 6-11-2011, “A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself,” Factiva)BB
Now, the latest scientific research suggests that a previously discounted factor is helping to
AND
interviews this year with more than 50 agricultural experts working in nine countries.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC China DA
Their impact ev isn’t specific to Latin America – If China were displaced, they would just redouble efforts elsewhere
Alt causes to Chinese influence – Asia Pivot, currency bashing, Japan alliance and Japanese territory claims wrecked Chinese influence
Aff solves the impact
Trade and FDI high now
Seelke 1/29/13 – Specialist in Latin American Affairs (Clare Ribando Seelke, “Mexico and the 112th Congress” January 29 2013, Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32724.pdf)
The bilateral trade relationship with Mexico is of key interest to Congress because of Mexico’s
AND
TransPacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement is likely to generate congressional interest.
Economic cooperation with Mexico high
Jacobson 6/18 – Assistant Secretary Of State For Western Hemisphere Affairs (Roberta S, “State’s Jacobson at Senate Hearing on U.S.-Mexico Partnership,” 6/18/13, U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Before Foreign Relations Committee Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2013/06/20130618276661.html#axzz2XAL8c3nZ)
The United States and Mexico share one of the world’s most vibrant and mutually beneficial
AND
(TPP), the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, and the G20.¶
Not zero sum – Mexico specific
Hongbo 13 – Sun Hongbo  is an associate professor at the Institute of Latin American Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (“A new stage of interaction”, June 6 2013, http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2013-06/06/content_29046199_2.htm)//sawyer
They should also expand people-to-people exchanges and strengthen cultural and educational
AND
game, and the three countries can explore potential areas for future cooperation.
No internal link – China isn’t competing for influence with the US
Pei, 12 – Tom and Margot Pritzker ’72 Professor of Government and director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont-McKenna College (Minxin, “Does China represent an economic and political threat to the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere?” January 11, 2012, http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/3254)//VP
With China’s growing economic presence in the Western Hemisphere, it is inevitable that a
AND
. Most probably it is good for the U.S. itself.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Ice Age
Doesn’t assume runaway warming—mazo says it causes devastating positive feedbacks like sea level rise, forest fires, and mass human migration
Even if ice age is coming soon, doesn’t mean it will be Ice Age the movie in 10 years—that’s just when temperatures begin a slide that lasts 11,000 years

Current emission levels make an ice age impossible
Chestney 12
Nina, “Next ice age not likely before 1,500 years: study” http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/09/us-ice-age-emissions-idUSTRE80814T20120109 January 9 mtc
(Reuters) - High levels of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere mean the
AND
University College London, the University of Florida and Norway's University of Bergen.¶

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Oil DA
Perception now – renewable fuel standard for almost a decade, recently upgraded CAFE standards
Corn ethanol in the squo t/o with oil – the aff just replaces it with advanced ethanol – no Saudi perception
Link is massively non unique
Federal biofuel policy now – RFS
Schnepf* and Yacobucci 13 – *Specialist in Agricultural Policy and Section Research Manager (Randy Schnepf and Brent D. Yacobucci, “Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS): ¶ Overview and Issues” CRS, March 14 2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40155.pdf)
Federal policy has played a key role in the emergence of the U.S
AND
an amended definition of renewable biomass, including ¶ certain land use restrictions.
Gov biofuel policy now – not sufficient
Schnepf* and Yacobucci 13 – *Specialist in Agricultural Policy and Section Research Manager (Randy Schnepf and Brent D. Yacobucci, “Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS): ¶ Overview and Issues” CRS, March 14 2013, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40155.pdf)
Increasing dependence on foreign sources of crude oil, concerns over global climate change,
AND
of total transportation fuel consumption (on a gasolineequivalent basis) in 2012.
All our ev pd their link
Plan not sufficient to trigger a flood – their link assumes
Fundamentally incorrect – the oil price cycle will be broken soon – that means that surplus capacity will drive prices low and they’ll stay low
Rapier, 6/4/13 (Robert, Director, Engineering, Projects, and Development for the Energy Collective, Master’s Degree in chemical engineering from Texas AandM University, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President for Merica International, “About Those Plunging Oil Prices”, Energy Trend Insider, June 4, 2013, http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2013/06/04/about-those-plunging-oil-prices/, JKahn)
Over the past three weeks, there have been numerous headlines insinuating that a freefall
AND
of oil traders could drive prices down in a hurry in that situation.
OPEC export sway is finished
Hargreaves, 7/18/13 (Steven, senior writer for CNN Money, CNN Money, July 18, 2013, CNN Money, http://www.money.cnn.com/2013/07/18/news/economy/opec-oil/index.html?iid=Lead, JKahn)
OPEC in a bind: Thanks to an energy boom in United States, Canada
AND
2018, according to Trevor Houser, an analyst at the Rhodium Group.
The Russia impact is non-unique and floating solves spending problems
Levine, 12 (Steve, Bernard L. Schwartz Fellow at the New America Foundation, Washington correspondent for Quartz, adjunct professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, former correspondent for  The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Financial Times and Newsweek, “Why a drop in oil prices wouldn’t threaten Vladimir Putin any time soon”, Quartz, October 15, 2012, http://qz.com/15444/why-a-drop-in-oil-prices-wouldnt-threaten-vladimir-putin-any-time-soon/, JKahn)
MOSCOW—When, like Vladimir Putin, you’re the leader of a petro-
AND
oil was as low as $80 a barrel was two years ago.
The Russian economy can withstand a slump
RIA, 11 (RIA Novisti, “Russian economy can survive low oil prices – Kudrin”, 9/26/2011, RIA Novisti, http://en.rian.ru/business/20110926/167139562.html)
The Russian economy will be able to function normally for a year, if global
AND
stood at $109.2 per barrel in January-August 2011.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC SO2 Screw
Warming now disproves the turn – can’t link turn without UQ
CO2 leads to warming – Green
Warming will dominate cooling
USGCRP in 96
(US Global Climate Research Program, “Role of Aerosols in Climate Change”, 4-25, http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/seminars/960425SM.html)
While the radiative effects of aerosols work in the opposite direction of greenhouse gases,
AND
offset the greenhouse gas effect without leading to deleterious health and ecological effects.
Brightening is happening now – pollution theory ahistorical
NASA 7
Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists, http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html
Sun-blocking aerosols around the world steadily declined (red line) since the
AND
trend happened just as global aerosol levels started to decline, Mishchenko said.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Neolib K
Our interpretation is that the affirmative should defend the 1AC vs an alternative with a mechanism that can be actualized
Key to fairness -- impossible for the aff to win against a world without violence -- the aff should get offense against the means used to achieve  – they should be held accountable for solvency, resistance and uniqueness concerns
Education -- weighing _ vs an aff that is limited by topic, actor, and solvency is a comparison that will never come about
Neolib isn’t the root cause – their alternative is utopian and unproductive – prefer our epistemology
Giordano and Li 12 - *Paolo, PhD in Economics from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Lead Economist @ the Integratoin and Trade Sector of the IADB, Kun, Research Fellow @ IADB
(“An Updated Assessment of the Trade and Poverty Nexus in Latin America,” p. 375-377)BB
Despite the move towards more open trade regimes, Latin American economies are still ¶
AND
to overstate the importance of strengthening the capacity of policymaking in this area.
Our epistemology is not flawed – yours is
Bhagwati, Professor Econ and Law at Columbia, ‘2 (Jagdish- Senior Fellow International Economic CFR, January/February, “Coping with Anti-Globalization” Foreign Affairs)
But we who favor globalization must also confront the young. And if you have
AND
or revolutions leading to a whole new age of abundance and liberty).”29
Perm – do plan and evaluate neoliberal policies from the outside in
Aff is a link turn to the K
--Solve Mexican farmers – US financing promotes their financial independence and assists their ag sector – McDonald
--Not interventionist – an offer of financing allows for Mexico to say no
--Solve hunger – more proximate cause for reduced VTL
Reject root cause logic
Ex-Im raises the bar for environmental standards and corporate accountability
Sheppard 3 – JD, represents clients before the IRS regarding foreign financial accounts (
AND
Chance Compliance Initiative (LCCI), and Offshore Voluntary Disclosure Program (OVDP)
(Hale, “Revamping the Export-Import Bank in 2002: The Impact of This Interim Solution on the United States and Latin America,” 6 N.Y.U. J. Legis. and Pub. Pol'y 130, Hein Online)
Second, an increase of U.S. exports of goods and services to
AND
in¶ Latin America thanks to financing by the Ex-Im Bank.
Globalization is inevitable and tech makes it self correcting –alternatives cause economic crises and environmental devastation
Mead 7-28 – PhD, Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College
Walter Russell, “The Energy Revolution 4: Hot Planet?,” The American Interest, http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/28/the-energy-revolution-4-hot-planet/
But those glory days are over now, and the smarter environmentalists are bowing to
AND
gripped in a permanent economic crisis of scarcity simply can’t and won’t do.
Alt doesn’t solve the aff – financing biofuels is key to solve the food for fuel tradeoff and Mexican ag
Neo-liberal economics inevitable – resiliency despite 2k8 recession and Eurozone crisis prove
Schmidt, IR Prof @ BU and Thatcher Politics Prof @ London School of Economics, 10/24
Vivien A. Schmidt is Professor of International Relations and Political Science at Boston University; Mark Thatcher is Professor of Comparative Politics and International Studies at the London School of Economics.  This piece builds on their argument in their co-edited book, Resilient Liberalism in Europe's Political Economy. “Why are Neo-liberal ideas so resilient?” 24 OCTOBER 2013
http://www.policy-network.net/pno_detail.aspx?ID=4500andtitle=Why-are-Neo-liberal-ideas-so-resilient-
Given the abject failure of the Neo-liberal policy offer, why has it
AND
be difficult to reverse, regardless of their failure to solve the crisis.
Its more sustainable and BETTER for the environment
Liverman and Vilas 6 – *Diana, Professor of Environmental Science at Oxford University, Oxford
(“Neoliberalism and the Environment in Latin America,” Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol. 31, Web of Sciences)BB
Neoliberal processes alter the impacts of industrial activities on the environment mainly through changes in
AND
regulation in the manufacturing sector; and higher costs of energy and water.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC Security K
Our interpretation is that the affirmative should defend the 1AC vs an alternative with a mechanism that can be actualized
Key to fairness -- impossible for the aff to win against a world without violence -- the aff should get offense against the means used to achieve  – they should be held accountable for solvency, resistance and uniqueness concerns
Education -- weighing _ vs an aff that is limited by topic, actor, and solvency is a comparison that will never come about
The role of the affirmative isn’t to describe a totally cogent view of the world – by presenting a series of persuasive causal claims about how the world works we prevent the construction of false threats
Sil, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, and Doherty, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Case Western Reserve University, 2K (Rudra and Eileen, “Beyond Boundaries: Disciplines, Paradigms, and Theoretical Integration in International Studies” p 160-161)
An even stronger case is made by Paul Feyerabend who attacks the very idea that
AND
employed in validating propositions by scholars embracing all but the most extreme epistemological positions
Perm do the plan and
Aff claims are not suspect – traditional security studies incorrectly deflate threats
Schweller 4
Randall L. Schweller, Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at The Ohio State University, “Unanswered Threats A Neoclassical RealistTheory of Underbalancing,” International Security 29.2 (2004) 159-201, Muse
Despite the historical frequency of underbalancing, little has been written on the subject.
AND
domestic-level variables that regularly intervene to thwart balance of power predictions.
Not a self-fulfilling prophecy – conveying weakness is more likely to spur aggression – history proves
Jervis 76 - professor of political science at Columbia University
Robert, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, p. 84
Spiral and deterrence theories thus contradict each other at every point.  They seem to
AND
also because they thought the United States would allow them to attain parity.
Threat con with China empirically denied
Blumenthal 11 - current commissioner and former vice chairman of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission
Dan, “The Top 10 Unicorns of China Policy,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/03/the_top_ten_unicorns_of_china_policy?page=full
Here are my own top 10 China-policy unicorns:  The self-fulfilling
AND
most fantastical claim about China policy and thus the No. 1 unicorn.
Securitization is the best way to depict Russia – they fill the vacuum with violence
Murray 12
(Murray, Robert W., PhD and adjunct professor of Political Science at the University of Alberta with particular emphasis on great power politics and Arctic sovereignty, “Turning Back the Clock in Great Power Politics”, July 19, 2012, http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/19/turning-back-the-clock-in-great-power-politics/)
If one takes the time to look through the international relations literature between 1992 and
AND
and that it will protect its interests when/where it deems necessary.
Using environmental security creates a political climate that solves best
Matthew 2
Richard, Prof. of IR and Env. Poliics at UC-Irvine, “In Defense of Environment and Security Research”, ECSP Report, Summer, p 119
In addition, environmental security's language and findings can benefit conservation and sustainable development."
AND
1999). However, for the most part these efforts remain preliminary.'
Representations of famine spur public action to solve starvation
Collier 8 – Professor of Economics
Paul, Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford University, November/December 2008, Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20081001faessay87605/paul-collier/the-politics-of-hunger.html?mode=print.
How might the romantic hostility toward commercial and scientific agriculture be countered politically? The
AND
it fills the stomachs of the poor, then it should be encouraged.
Discourse doesn’t create security, it’s a response to real and material concerns – prefer our threat-specific internal links
Glover 11 – University of Bradford, UK
Nicholas, “Does Security exist outside of the speech act?,” http://www.e-ir.info/2011/10/09/does-security-exist-outside-of-the-speech-act/
Significant to this theory is Waver’s notion of societal security, which invokes community and
AND
be known or heard. Security therefore is not just a speech act.
No endless intervention – US power is comparatively benign
Shaw 2 – Professor of IR @ Sussex
Martin Shaw, professor of international relations at University of Sussex, April 7, Uses and Abuses of Anti-Imperialism in the Global Era, http://www.martinshaw.org/empire.htm
It is fashionable in some circles, among which we must clearly include the organizers
AND
I shall return to these political issues at the end of this paper.
Threats do exist, and your skepticism is nothing more than a psychological trick that assumes humans are invincible- your willful ignorance allows terrible atrocities to occur
Orr, Professor Enviro Studies and Politics Oberlin College, ‘8 (David, August 4, “The Psychology of Survival” Conservation Biology, Vol 22 Issue 4, p 819-822, WileyInterscience)
Capable of great feats of imagination and invention as well as generating less agreeable behavior
AND
, perhaps, are not so much rational creatures as very proficient rationalizers.

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC CIR
XO solves
Lillis 13 – Staff @ The Hill
Mike, “Dems: Obama can act unilaterally on immigration reform,” http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/administration/283583-dems-recognize-that-obama-can-act-unilaterally-on-immigration-reform#ixzz2NAEmbB00
President Obama can – and will – take steps on immigration reform in the event
AND
modeled on the Dream Act legislation that has been unable to pass Congress.
It’s under the radar
Lillian 10 – FOLIO Magazine’s top 13 under 30, Speaker, NESEA’s BuildingEnergy13 conference
(Jessica, “The U.S. Export-Import Bank: Secret Solar Finance Powerhouse,” Solar Industry, 1.11)
Mandated by its congressional charter since 1992 to support renewable energy exports, the U
AND
Office of Renewable Energy. This total included 1,820 individual transactions.
Congress won’t seek oversight
Blackwell 12
(Ken, CNS News, http://cnsnews.com/blog/ken-blackwell/export-import-bank-nightmare)
In the spirit of true bipartisanship, establishment Democrats and Republicans are both supporting the
AND
American jobs, but these audits rarely, if ever, take place.
No backlash
Mittelman 10 – Professor of International Affairs @ American
(James, “Hyperconflict: Globalization and Insecurity,” p. 106)
So, too, Scott Snyder and Richard H. Solomon, president of the
AND
and security stabilizer in Asia" (Snyder and Solomon 1998,2).

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC T – EE 

We Meet- Ex-Im’s core function is economic engagement
US Code 12 USC § 635
(http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/635)
General banking business; use of mails; publication of documents, reports, contracts
AND
Opportunity Act 19 U.S.C. 3701 et seq..
C/I: Tech, loans and aid
Haass and O’Sullivan 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution AND a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution
(Richard and Meghan, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies” Survival _{vol. 42, no. 2, Summer, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer20haass/2000survival.pdf)
Architects of engagement strategies can choose from a wide variety of incentives. Economic engagement
AND
are just some of the possible incentives used in the form of engagement.}

Prefer our interpretation
Defines “EE” as a term of art – they only define engagement
Aff ground – no US key arguments on the “aid trade” only topic

Kills aff innovation

Defense:  
Finite number of countries and literature base checks
Still have core generics
Impact assessment – only vote on topicality if it has made it impossible to be negative, but not just slightly more difficult.—don’t allow them contrived definitions that are not exclusive-encourages a stale debate of competing interpretations

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC T Gov to Gov
We meet—USFG finances biofuels towards Mexico, expands bilateral economic relations through agriculture
C/I: Engagement towards mexico is the country, not the government
Oxford Dictionaries 13 Date Accessed May 10 2013 -- oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/Mexico
Definition of Mexico¶ a country in southwestern North America, with extensive coastlines on
AND
Grande was lost to the US in the Mexican War of 1846–48
C/I: Economic engagement can be towards the private sector
Haass and O’Sullivan, 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution AND a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution (Richard and Meghan, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies” Survival _{vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer20haass/2000survival.pdf
The provision of economic incentives to the private sector of a target country can be
AND
presents a multitude of possible partners for unconditional engagement with non-state actors
We meet the C/I- plan finances tech for private sector
Its means associated with
Oxford Dictionaries, 13 (its, http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/its?view=uk)
Definition of its determiner belonging to or associated with a thing previously mentioned or easily identified: turn the camera on its side he chose the area for its atmosphere belonging to or associated with a child or animal of unspecified sex: a baby in its mother’s womb
Their interpretation makes it impossible for the affirmative to discuss the import export bank – that artificially limits out the most common USFG mechanism for promoting international financing any reasonable interpretation of economic engagement includes financing
Ex-Im’s core function is economic engagement
US Code 12 USC § 635
(http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/635)
General banking business; use of mails; publication of documents, reports, contracts
AND
Opportunity Act 19 U.S.C. 3701 et seq..}

Defense:  
Finite number of countries and literature base checks
core generics
Every aff is extra-t: the government takes initial steps but the private sector is involved inevitably 

Impact assessment – only vote on T if it is impossible to be negative not slightly more difficult.—don’t allow them contrived definitions that are not exclusive- - encourages a stale debate of competing interpretations

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC T QPQ
We meet- the plan is an offer of financing to Mexico, conditioned on their acceptance
WM- Conditions are required for every ExIm loan
Brannon 11 – PhD in Economics @ Indiana
(Ike and Elizabeth Lowell, “Export-Import Bank: Obstacles and Options for Reform,” American Action Forum, http://americanactionforum.org/sites/default/files/Ex-Im20Final20Draft21.pdf)
Congress imposes a host of criteria that Ex-Im must ¶ take into account before providing financing, such as¶ requirements for reasonable assurance of repayment ¶ without competing with private capital, foreign ¶ content restrictions, transportation of exports using ¶ U.S. vessels, exclusion of military products, ¶ consideration of environmental impact, and ¶ allocation of 10 percent of financing for renewable ¶ energy and energy-efficient products and 20 percent¶ for small businesses.
C/I: Economic Engagement can be both
Kane 8 – Major USMC
Brian, “Comprehensive Engagement: A Winning Strategy,” MA Thesis, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a504901.pdf
Engagement strategies are not new. Since the end of the Cold War, engagement
AND
10¶ This definition of engagement has been the most successful historically.11
Economic engagement can be unconditional
Çelik 11 – Dept. of Peace and Conflict Research @ Uppsala
(Arda Can, “Economic Sanctions and Engagement Policies,” p. 11)
Economic engagement policies are strategic integration behaviour which involves with the target state. Engagement
AND
position of one state affects the position of others in the same direction.”
Toward means ‘in the direction of’
to•ward (tôrd, trd, t-wôrd) KEY PREPOSITION: also to•wards (tôrdz, trdz, t-wôrdz) KEY In the direction of: driving toward home.
That’s American Heritage, 9 (‘toward’, http://education.yahoo.com/reference/dictionary/entry/toward)

Prefer our interpretation
a) Most successful without conditions – k/t productive policies
b) Neg ground and limits – allow infinite conditions, explodes the topic
c) Aff ground – forcing specification of condition leads to bad PICs
Prefer our interpretation—they overlimit – exclude all trade affs which are the core of the topic -- Intent to define key to precision

Defense:  
Finite number of countries and literature base checks
core generics 

Impact assessment – only vote on T if it is impossible to be negative not slightly more difficult.—don’t allow them contrived definitions that are not exclusive- - encourages a stale debate of competing interpretations

Tournament: 2AC CITES | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
2AC T – Structural Linkages
We meet – the Ex Im financing is sustained US exchange – Mastaduno
We meet – Celik says – trade mechanisms where sender and target country establish intensified trade thus increase the economic interaction
We meet – trade promotion
Sheppard 3 – JD, represents clients before the IRS regarding foreign financial accounts (
AND
Chance Compliance Initiative (LCCI), and Offshore Voluntary Disclosure Program (OVDP)
(Hale, “Revamping the Export-Import Bank in 2002: The Impact of This Interim Solution on the United States and Latin America,” 6 N.Y.U. J. Legis. and Pub. Pol'y 130, Hein Online)
The Ex-Im Bank promotes the export of U.S. goods and
AND
S. export transactions,¶ ninety percent of which involved small businesses.13
We Meet- Ex-Im’s core function is economic engagement
US Code 12 USC § 635
(http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/12/635)
General banking business; use of mails; publication of documents, reports, contracts
AND
Opportunity Act 19 U.S.C. 3701 et seq..
C/I: Tech, loans and aid
Haass and O’Sullivan 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution AND a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution
(Richard and Meghan, “Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies” Survival _{vol. 42, no. 2, Summer, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer20haass/2000survival.pdf)
Architects of engagement strategies can choose from a wide variety of incentives. Economic engagement
AND
are just some of the possible incentives used in the form of engagement.}

Prefer our interpretation
Defines “EE” as a term of art – they only define engagement
Aff ground – no US key arguments on the “aid trade” only topic

Kills aff innovation

Defense:  
Finite number of countries and literature base checks
Still have core generics
Impact assessment – only vote on topicality if it has made it impossible to be negative, but not just slightly more difficult.—don’t allow them contrived definitions that are not exclusive-encourages a stale debate of competing interpretations

Tournament: Contact Information | Round: 1 | Opponent:  | Judge:
Aff cite requests: miranda.ryshawy3@gmail.com

Tournament: NDCA | Round: Octas | Opponent: Lexington | Judge: Melanie Campbell, Whit Whitmore, Sam Shore
1ac – Policy
1
Contention one is warming

Warming is anthropogenic – most comprehensive analysis to date proves
Green 13 – Professor of Chemistry @ Michigan Tech,
*John Cook – Fellow @ Global Change Institute, produced climate communication resources adopted by organisations such as NOAA and the U.S. Navy
Dana Nuccitelli – MA in Physics @ UC-Davis
*Mark Richardson – PhD Candidate in Meteorology, et al.,
(“Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature,” Environmental Research Letters, 8.2)
An accurate perception of the degree of scientific consensus is an essential element to public
AND
1 based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.

There is a low threshold for RUNAWAY warming – newest studies prove
Goldblatt 13 – PhD in Environmental Sciences, Research Associate, Virtual Planetary Laboratory and Astronomy Department @ U Washington
(Colin, et al., “Low simulated radiation limit for runaway greenhouse climates,” Nature Geoscience 6, 661–667, doi:10.1038/ngeo1892)
Here, we present the most complete study of the runaway greenhouse for 25 years
AND
(with a major component being condensable), and no empirical comparison cases.

The risk is existential
Mazo 10 – PhD in Paleoclimatology from UCLA
(Jeffrey Mazo, Managing Editor, Survival and Research Fellow for Environmental Security and Science Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, 3-2010, “Climate Conflict: How global warming threatens security and what to do about it,” pg. 122)
The best estimates for global warming to the end of the century range from 2
AND
adaptation to these extremes would mean profound social, cultural and political changes.

Warming destroys all human and non-human life on earth
Brandenberg 99 – PhD, Physicist
(Dr. John, Physicist, Dead Mars, Dying Earth, p. 232-233)
The world goes on its merry way and fossil fuel use continues to power it
AND
Mars – red, desolate, with perhaps a few hardy microbes surviving.

Emissions cause ocean acidification – extinction
Romm 12 – physicist and climate expert, Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress
(Joseph J., “Science: Ocean Acidifying so fast that it threatens humanity’s ability to feed itself”, 3/2/12; http://earthlawcenter.org/news/headline/science-ocean-acidifying-so-fast-it-threatens-humanitys-ability-to-feed-itself/)
The world’s oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they
AND
species goes extinct it’s gone forever. We’re playing a very dangerous game.”
2
Contention two is zoonotic disease 

Deforestation leads to zoonotic disease
Singh 13 – PhD, Virologist working in the area of Emerging Viruses at Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology
(Sunit, “Viral Infections and Global Change,” Googlebook)
Landscape changes that result in deforestation simultaneously impact climate change and the emergence of viral
AND
hunters and humans engaged in other activities (Wolfe et al., 2005).

Mexico key – poor management, no legislation, insufficient education and poor diagnosis capacity
Martins 11 – analyst @ Pig Progress
(Luciana, “Pig health issues: Overview of Latin America,” http://www.pigprogress.net/Home/General/2011/3/Pig-health-issues-Overview-of-Latin-America-PP007801W/)
New diseases and persistent ones restrain progress in the field of animal health in Latin
AND
region and there are suspicions in the south east side of the country.”

New zoonotic diseases cause extinction – no burnout because infectivity precedes symptoms
Quammen 12 – award-winning science writer, long-time columnist for Outside magazine, writer for National Geographic, Harper's, Rolling Stone, the New York Times Book Review and others, 9/29
(David, “Could the next big animal-to-human disease wipe us out?,” The Guardian, pg. 29, Lexis)
Infectious disease is all around us. It's one of the basic processes that ecologists
AND
collapses? One possible factor is infectious disease, and viruses in particular.

Zoonotic diseases are uniquely devastating
Casadevall 12 – Prof @ Department of Microbiology and Immunology and the Division of Infectious Diseases of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine
(Arturo, “The future of biological warfare,” Microbial Biotechnology, p. 584-5)
In considering the importance of biological warfare as a subject for concern it is worthwhile
AND
acquired the capacity for pathogenicity as a consequence of natural evolution or bioengineering.

Impact defense is just naïve optimism
Greger 6 – MD
(Michael, MD, Director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at The Humane Society of the United States, Bird Flu: A Virus of Our Own Hatching)
“The single biggest threat to human’s continued dominance on the planet
AND
“might easily transmute into a tune whistled whilst passing a graveyard.”3154

Next 5 years key
Naish 12 – citing a leading British virologist, professor of John Oxford
(John, “The Armageddon virus: Why experts fear a disease that leaps from animals to humans could devastate mankind in the next five years,” http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217774/The-Armageddon-virus-Why-experts-fear-disease-leaps-animals-humans-devastate-mankind-years.html)
When the Health Protection Agency warned the world of this newly- emerging virus last
AND
it will have started to cut its lethal swathe through the world’s population.
Plan

The United States federal government should finance Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Mexico.

Contention three – solvency

US reforestation engagement with Mexico creates a global model that invigorates broader emissions cuts and solves warming
Shankleman 13 - Senior Reporter and Special Projects Editor,BusinessGreen
(Jessica, “Governments urged to beef up reforestation anti-corruption measures,” /bg/analysis/2303133/governments-urged-to-beef-up-reforestation-anti-corruption-measures)
A scheme to ensure rich nations pay to help reduce emissions from deforestation was once
AND
legislation passed that ensures promised emissions savings and forest protection schemes are delivered.

Mexico has the institutional framework in place, but significant outside investment is key
NCF 11
(National Commission of Forests in Mexico, Mexico Investment Plan, “Forest Investment Program,” Scholar)
The Government of Mexico acknowledges that climate change represents the primary global environmental challenge.
AND
the States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo.

Despite the historical success of reforestation efforts, more investment is needed to overcome institutional inertia
Evans 13 – PhD, leads the REDD+ program for the Wildlife Conservation Society
(Tom, “REDD+ Can Be a Game-Changer in the Battle Against Tropical Deforestation,” National Geographic, http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/16/redd-can-be-a-game-changer-in-the-battle-against-tropical-deforestation/)
In a high profile side event to the UN General Assembly next week, UN
AND
dramatic and rapid effects, promoting belief and action in tropical forest countries.

The alternative to the plan is unrestrained corporate destruction – a revamped REDD solves warming and overcomes traditional economic criticisms
Hayward 13 – director of the Climate Program at Rainforest Alliance
(Jeff, “Without Economic Incentives, Protecting Global Forests May Prove Impossible (Op-Ed),” http://www.livescience.com/42109-protecting-forests-requires-economic-incentives.html)
But a new paradigm of growth is emerging through a mechanism known as Reducing Emissions
AND
believe forest conservation — and thus sustainable supply management — will require REDD+.

Specifically, reforestation solves feedback loops and ocean acidification
Spross 13 – BS @ UT-Austin, co-founded, wrote and produced The Regimen, a blog and podcast dealing with politics and culture
(Jeff, “What Fighting Deforestation Can And Can’t Achieve,” Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/06/17/2140461/fighting-deforestation/#)
There’s also ocean acidification to consider. Approximately 10 billion metric tons of the carbon
AND
of REDD’s funding and push it along policy-wise could certainly help.

Emissions cuts alone won’t work because of already-emitted carbon – only reforestation can avert dangerous warming
CH 14 - initiative that has been working on the mountain and climate related issues, this knowledge sharing portal has become one of the important references for the governments, research institutions, civil society groups and international agencies, those have work and interest in Himalayas
(Climate Himalaya, “Soil as Carbon Storehouse: New Weapon in Climate Fight?,” http://chimalaya.org/2014/03/05/soil-as-carbon-storehouse-new-weapon-in-climate-fight/)
Absent carbon and critical microbes, soil becomes mere dirt, a process of deterioration
AND
, essentially burning the soil carbon. We can take an alternate trajectory.”

The plan leads to global reforestation:

FIRST – Modeling – foreign assistance builds Mexican REDD credibility that is emulated globally
Bray 13 - Professor and Former Chair, Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University
(David, “From Mexico, Global Lessons for Forest Governance,” Solutions, 4.3)
The current major global strategy for addressing deforestation as a source of carbon emissions is
AND
, supportive government policy, and efforts to generate income for local communities.

SECOND – Donations – Mexican forests provide key germplasms for global forests
Romero 3 - Instituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos Naturales, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo
(Cuauhtémoc, “ALTERNATIVES FOR IMPROVING REFORESTATION IN MÉXICO,” FAO, http://www.fao.org/docrep/ARTICLE/WFC/XII/0381-B4.HTM)
México is center of diversity of the genus Pinus, with the world highest diversity
AND
survivorship and suggest some actions to improve the seedling survivorship and growth rate.

THIRD – Only the US solves GLOBAL environmental governance
Esty and Ivanova 8 – Director Yale Center Environmental Policy
(Daniel C. Esty, Hillhouse Professor of Environmental Law and Policy at Yale
AND
Number 2, Summer-Fall 2008, pp. 57-75)
The Bush Administration’s “go-it-alone” strategy in security issues has
AND
international entanglements and international organizations—even those related to protecting the planet.

The 1ac’s narrative of environmental risk is motivating and drives individual activism
Veldman 12 – PhD Candidate Religion and Nature at U of Florida
(Robin- National Foundation Fellow at the Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship, Spring, “Narrating the Environmental Apocalypse: How Imagining the End Facilitates Moral Reasoning Among Environmental Activists” Ethics and the Environment, Vol 17 No 1, ProjectMuse)
Environmental Apocalypticism and Activism As we saw in the introduction, critics often argue that
AND
apocalypticism and moral reasoning looks like in practice. End Page 12

Tournament: NDCA | Round: Octas | Opponent: Lexington | Judge:
2AC Patent Reform
Obama’s PC all dried up
Oliphant 4/11
James Oliphant, White House Correspondent National Journal, “POLITICS Obama Begins to Say Good-Bye” April 11, 2014 http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-begins-to-say-good-bye-20140411
Because you can find anything on the Web, you can easily search and pull
AND
work to pass and implement Obamacare, despite the fierce criticism she faced.)
Nothing will pass before the election
O'KEEFE 4/4
Ed, Washington Post“Congress is scheduled to meet 75 more days this year. They have just 3 things to do in that time.” April 4, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/04/04/congress-is-scheduled-to-meet-75-more-days-this-year-they-have-just-3-things-to-do-in-that-time/
Today marks the 41st day this year that either the House or Senate has been
AND
Ambitious, bipartisan legislation will just have to wait until after the elections.

Leahy’s push solves – there are “conversations” with the White House, but he’s doing the heavy lifting
Tummarello 4-13
(Kate, The Hill, “Leahy walks tightrope on Senate patent bill”
http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/203395-leahy-walks-tightrope-on-senate-patent-bill
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) is hoping to advance
AND
patent reform package that gets enough support from both sides of the aisle.
Negotiations are at an impasse – delays mean its dead
Wilson and Tummarello 4/7
Megan R. Wilson and Kate Tummarello Staff Writers @ The Hill “Friction tests patent reform push” April 07, 2014 http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/202868-friction-tests-patent-reform-push
The House has already passed a reform bill, and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick
AND
set to intensify this summer, action on the bill could get tricky.
Senate bill is too broad BUT the squo solves trolling
Silverstein 4/3
Ed Silverstein is a veteran writer and editor for magazines, websites and newspapers. A graduate of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, he has won several awards for his published articles. “Senate urged to improve proposal on patent reform” APRIL 3, 2014
http://www.insidecounsel.com/2014/04/03/senate-urged-to-improve-proposal-on-patent-reform?ref=nav, * Lex Machina provides Legal Analytics to companies and law firms, enabling them to craft successful strategies, win cases, and close business.
On the other hand, from his perspective, Charles Sauer, a founder of
AND
of patent cases filed in January 2014 was 322, according to InsideCounsel.

Current bill is insufficient – costs and anticompetitive impact of junk patents far exceeds trolls
Khanna 4/8
Derek Khanna, listed in the Forbes 30 Under 30 for Law and Policy for 2014. He is a Yale Law Fellow, columnist and policy expert. He wrote the House Republican Study Committee Memo on reforming copyright law and spearheaded the campaign on cellphone unlocking. Follow him on Twitter.Columnist and Policy Expert, “HOW TO REALLY FIX PATENTS - AND WHY CONGRESS IS UNLIKELY TO DO IT” 4/8/2014 http://politix.topix.com/story/11402-how-to-really-fix-patents-and-why-congress-is-unlikely-to-do-it
Today the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a mark-up on patent reform legislation
AND
spurring innovation and content creation, not at the cost of inhibiting it.
Refo funding now and it was popular
AF 3-4
(American Forests, “Bipartisan Wildfire Disaster Funding Included in President Obama’s FY15 Budget,” http://www.americanforests.org/newsroom/bipartisan-wildfire-disaster-funding-included-in-president-obamas-fy15-budget/)
Today, President Obama followed the lead of bipartisan legislation to resolve fire disaster funding
AND
health and resilience,” says Society of American Foresters’ president, Dave Walters.
Current bill is insufficient – costs and anticompetitive impact of junk patents far exceeds trolls
Khanna 4/8
Derek Khanna, listed in the Forbes 30 Under 30 for Law and Policy for 2014. He is a Yale Law Fellow, columnist and policy expert. He wrote the House Republican Study Committee Memo on reforming copyright law and spearheaded the campaign on cellphone unlocking. Follow him on Twitter.Columnist and Policy Expert, “HOW TO REALLY FIX PATENTS - AND WHY CONGRESS IS UNLIKELY TO DO IT” 4/8/2014 http://politix.topix.com/story/11402-how-to-really-fix-patents-and-why-congress-is-unlikely-to-do-it
Today the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a mark-up on patent reform legislation
AND
spurring innovation and content creation, not at the cost of inhibiting it.
Plan is popular and avoids association with warming politics
Wolosin 12 - director of research and policy at Climate Advisers
(Michael, “US Forest–Climate Assistance,” RFF, http://www.rff.org/rff/documents/RFF-Rpt-Wolosin-ForestClimateAssistance.pdf)
Deforestation and land degradation in forested developing countries is the source of more ¶ greenhouse
AND
sector, ¶ and subnational early actors involved in REDD+ activities globally.

First-mover not key – economic growth comes from downstream utilization of other countries’ technology, not upstream innovation
Galama, Ph.D. and M.Sc. in Physics from the University of Amsterdam, MBA from INSEAD, ‘8 (Titus, “U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology,” Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense by the National Defense Research Institute of the RAND Corporation, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG674.pdf)
Another opposing view suggests that fears of a looming SandT crisis may result
AND
so much the better for American consumers. (The Economist, 2006)
It’s also better for US leadership
Bhide, Business Professor at Columbia, ‘6 (Amaar, July 10, “Venturesome Consumption, Innovation and Globalization,” Paper for a Joint Conference of CESifo and the Center on Capitalism and Society “Perspectives on the Performance of the Continent’s Economies,” http://www.bhide.net/bhide_venturesome_consumption.pdf)
Let us return to the question raised earlier: Why, contrary to ‘convergence’
AND
This helps rather than hurts the countries that once took the main responsibility.)

Tournament: USC RR | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
The Export Import Bank of the United States should offer substantial financing for advanced biofuels in Mexico.

Tournament: Notre Dame | Round: 1 | Opponent: NA | Judge: NA
The Export Import Bank of the United States should offer substantial financing for non corn biofuels in Mexico.