Tournament: Brophy | Round: 1 | Opponent: PCDS | Judge: M Parker
International crises are inevitable – Russia expansionism, Iranian prolif, Indo-Pak War and Chinese influence in Latin America are all uniquely likely in the status quo – it’s only a question of US ability to de-escalate conflict
Ghitis 13 (Frida, world affairs columnist for The Miami Herald and World Politics Review. A former CNN producer and correspondent, she is the author of The End of Revolution: A Changing World in the Age of Live Television. "World to Obama: You can’t ignore us," 1/22, http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/22/opinion/ghitis-obama-world)
President Obama made it very clear: The second term is all about the domestic
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with the best laid, most well-intentioned plans of American presidents.
HP 6-19 (Huffington Post, "Obama, Putin Tensions Signal Tough Times For U.S.-Russian Relations", 6/19/2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/19/obama-putin_n_3467752.html)
WASHINGTON — A photograph of President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin that emerged this
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and so of course it’s frustrating that Putin’s back," the adviser said.
Blank 9 (Dr. Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, March, "Russia And Arms Control: Are There Opportunities For The Obama Administration?," http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub908.pdf)
Proliferators or nuclear states like China and Russia can then deter regional or intercontinental attacks
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perhaps make wars of aggression on their neighbors or their own people.172
Rafizadeh 7-19 (Majid, author and U.S. foreign policy specialist, "Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing? The Iran-Israel Standoff", Al Arabiya, http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2013/07/19/Wolves-in-sheep-s-clothing-The-Iran-Israel-nuclear-standoff.html)
However, these hopes for a resolution to the long-running dispute over Iran’s
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enrichment program, Israel remains the Middle East’s sole but undeclared nuclear power.
Jeffrey Goldberg 12, Bloomberg View columnist and a national correspondent for the Atlantic, January 23, 2012, "How Iran Could Trigger Accidental Armageddon," online: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-24/how-iran-may-trigger-accidental-armageddon-commentary-by-jeffrey-goldberg.html
The experts who study this depressing issue seem to agree that a Middle East in
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must be stopped before it reaches fruition with a nuclear weapons delivery capability."
Jayasekera 6-12 (Deepal, writer for the International Committee of the Fourth International, "New flare-up of Indo-Pakistani tensions in disputed Kashmir", 6/12/13, http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2013/06/12/indi-j12.html)
India has claimed that a junior Indian army officer was killed late last week when
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No Pakistani troops carried out any firing across the LoC on Indian positions."
Greg Chaffin 11, Research Assistant at Foreign Policy in Focus, July 8, 2011, "Reorienting U.S. Security Strategy in South Asia," online: http://www.fpif.org/articles/reorienting_us_security_strategy_in_south_asia
The greatest threat to regional security (although curiously not at the top of most
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lead to all-out war between the two that could quickly escalate.
Fergusson 12 Robbie, Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Featured Contributor at International Business Times, Former Conference 26 Research Assistant at Security Watch, Former Researcher at University College London, Master of Science, China in the International Arena, The University of Glasgow, "The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine," http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/
Taiwan – domestic, or foreign policy?¶ China’s goals in the region amount to
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allow the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force.
Mazza 1/3 Michael, research fellow in foreign and defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute, 1/3/13, "Four Surprises That Could Rock Asia in 2013," http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/03/four_surprises_that_could_rock_asia_in_2012?page=full
Since President Ma Ying-jeou came to power in 2008, Taipei and Beijing
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ally — could throw U.S.-China relations into a tailspin.
Taiwan escalates and goes nuclear
Lowther 3/16 William, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3/16/13, "Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report," http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211-http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211
Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China
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arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating."
Brooks, Ikenberry, and Wohlforth ’13 (Stephen, Associate Professor of Government at
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. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51)
A core premise of deep engagement is that it prevents the emergence of a far
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that of potential rivals is by many measures growing rather than shrinking. 85
Goldstein ’7 (Avery, Professor of Global Politics and International Relations @ University of Pennsylvania, "Power transitions, institutions, and China’s rise in East Asia: Theoretical expectations and evidence," Journal of Strategic Studies, Volume 30, Issue 4 26 5 August)
Two closely related, though distinct, theoretical arguments focus explicitly on the consequences for
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provides grounds for concern about the period prior to the possible crossover.19
Owen 11 (John M. Owen Professor of Politics at University of Virginia PhD from Harvard "DON’T DISCOUNT HEGEMONY" Feb 11 www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony-http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/02/11/john-owen/dont-discount-hegemony/)
Our colleagues at Simon Fraser University are brave indeed. That may sound like a
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are now seeing is about much more than the humbling of a superpower.
Busby 12 Josh, Assistant Professor of Public Affairs and a fellow in the RGK Center for Philanthropy and Community Service as well as a Crook Distinguished Scholar at the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law, http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2012/01/get-real-chicago-ir-guys-out-in-force.html-http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/2012/01/get-real-chicago-ir-guys-out-in-force.html
Now, I’ve been following some of the discussion by and about Steven Pinker and
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provocative piece that suggests acting more realist might have prevented World War II21
Fettweis, 2004 (Christopher, Professor at the U.S. Army War College, December 2004, "Resolute Eagle or Paper Tiger? Credibility, Reputation and the War on Terror," online: http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p67147_index.html)
The credibility of a state forms the basis of its reputation, which is little
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a code word for a show of weakness that inadvertently encourages an aggressor.
RT 7-21 (Russia Times, "Venezuela ends Rapproachment Talks with Washington over US Meddling", 7/21/13, http://rt.com/news/venezuela-ends-dialogue-us-relations-352/-http://rt.com/news/venezuela-ends-dialogue-us-relations-352/)
Caracas brought talks with the US to an abrupt end over statements made by Samantha
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, referencing Washington’s failure to close Guantanamo and the practice of drone attacks.
EU 7-25-13 (El Univerisal, Venezuelan Newspaper, "Venezuela willing to have friendly relations with the United States", July 25th, 2013, http://english.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130725/venezuela-willing-to-have-friendly-relations-with-the-united-states)
Venezuelan Chargé d’Affaires to the United States Calixto Ortega stated on Thursday that a bilateral
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pointed out that restoration of bilateral dialogue would depend on Washington’s "rectification."
Boudin 9 (Chesa, Rhodes Scholar with degrees from Yale and Oxford Universities. Currently attending Yale Law School, he is coauthor of The Venezuelan Revolution: 100 Questions—100 Answers and coeditor of Letters from Young Activists, Why Obama Should Meet With Hugo Chavez, http://upsidedownworld.org/main/venezuela-archives-35/1671-why-obama-should-meet-with-hugo-chavez-http://upsidedownworld.org/main/venezuela-archives-35/1671-why-obama-should-meet-with-hugo-chavez, 1/18/9)
Finally, there is a fourth point that should appeal to Chávez’s harshest critics.
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from meetings with Representative Delahunt (D-MA) and other congressmen.