Tournament: Carrollton | Round: 1 | Opponent: 1AC - Ohio Valley | Judge:
1AC
1AC — Soft Power Advantage
Contention One: Soft Power
First, the Cuban embargo undermines U.S.-Latin American relations.
Hakim 13 — Peter Hakim, President Emeritus and Senior Fellow of the Inter-American Dialogue—a Washington-based think tank on Western Hemisphere affairs, Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, has served on boards and advisory committees for the World Bank, Council on Competitiveness, Inter-American Development Bank, Canadian Foundation for Latin America, Partners for Democratic Change, and Human Rights Watch, holds a Master of Public and International Affairs degree from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School, 2013 (“Post Chavez: Can U.S. rebuild Latin American ties?,” The Great Debate—a R/euters blog, March 27th, Available Online at http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/03/27/post-chavez-can-u-s-rebuild-latin-american-ties/, Accessed 05-20-2013)
Recent developments suggest, however, that for Washington to regain clout in regional affairs, it must it end its standoff with Cuba. U.S. policy toward Cuba sets Washington against the views of every Latin American and Caribbean government. Long-standing U.S. efforts to isolate and sanction Cuba, have, counterproductively, brought every country in Latin America to Cuba’s defense with a general admiration of Havana’s resistance to U.S. pressures.
Because this U.S. policy is viewed as so extreme, no Latin America country is willing to criticize Cuba — almost regardless of its words or actions. Chavez, with his close association with Cuba, possessed some of that immunity — with his neighbors leaving him unaccountable for his violations of democracy, human rights and decency.
His funeral made it clear that the United States has a lot of work to do to prevent that immunity from spreading.
Second, relations key to economic growth, climate change, proliferation, democracy, and human rights.
Bachelet et al. 12 — Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile, head of UN Women, and Carla A. Hills, Co-chair of the Council on Foreign Relations, Chair of the National Committee on United States-China Relations, served as United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Ford and as a U.S. Trade Representative under President Bush, co-chairs of the Sol M. Linowitz Forum of the Inter-American Dialogue—a non-partisan, 100-member group of politicians, academics, business leaders, and others from the United States and Latin America, et al., 2012 (“Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,” Report of the Sol M. Linowitz Forum of the Inter-American Dialogue, April, Available Online at http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, Accessed 05-20-2013, p. 3-4)
There are compelling reasons for the United States and Latin America to pursue more robust ties.
Every country in the Americas would benefit from strengthened and expanded economic relations, with
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, setting a firmer basis for hemispheric partnership. end page 3
Despite the multiple opportunities and potential benefits, relations between the United States and Latin America remain disappointing. If new opportunities are not seized, relations will likely continue to drift apart. The longer the current situation persists, the harder it will be to reverse course and rebuild vigorous cooperation. Hemispheric affairs require urgent attention—both from the United States and from Latin America and the Caribbean.
That boosts overall U.S. soft power — the plan increases momentum and credibility.
Dickerson 10 — Sergio M. Dickerson, Lieutenant Colonel in the United States Army, 2010 (“United States Security Strategy Towards Cuba,” Strategy Research Project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Master of Strategic Studies Degree at the U.S. Army War College, January 14th, Available Online at http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518053, Accessed 05-20-2013, p. 21-22)
Today, 20 years have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall – it’s
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Cuba. Under these conditions, diplomacy has a better chance to flourish.
If the Cuban model succeeds President Obama will be seen as a true leader for
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decline in the greater global order bringing true peace for years to come.
Fourth, soft power is key to prevent every major impact — power diffusion makes U.S. influence vital.
Nye 9 — Joseph S. Nye, Jr., University Distinguished Service Professor and Former Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Chair of the National Intelligence Council, and Deputy Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance, Science and Technology, holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University, 2009 (“American Power in the Twenty-First Century,” Project Syndicate, September 10th, Available Online at http://www.project-syndicate.org/print/american-power-in-the-twenty-first-century, Accessed 05-27-2013)
The United States government’s National Intelligence Council projects that American dominance will be “much
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mid-day. How can we know if these predictions are correct?
One should beware of misleading metaphors of organic decline. Countries are not like humans with predictable life spans. For example, after Britain lost its American colonies at the end of the eighteenth century, Horace Walpole lamented Britain’s reduction to “as insignificant a country as Denmark or Sardinia.” He failed to foresee that the industrial revolution would give Britain a second century of even greater ascendency.
Rome remained dominant for more than three centuries after the apogee of Roman power.
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-insecurity, power diffusion may be a greater threat than power transition.
So, what will it mean to wield power in the global information age of the twenty-first century? What resources will produce power? In the sixteenth century, control of colonies and gold bullion gave Spain the edge; seventeenth-century Holland profited from trade and finance; eighteenth-century France gained from its larger population and armies; and nineteenth-century British power rested on its industrial primacy and its navy.
Conventional wisdom has always held that the state with the largest military prevails, but in an information age it may be the state (or non-state) with the best story that wins. Today, it is far from clear how the balance of power is measured, much less how to develop successful survival strategies.
In his inaugural address in 2009, President Barack Obama stated that “our power
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combination of the hard power of command and the soft power of attraction.
Power always depends on context. The child who dominates on the playground may become a laggard when the context changes to a disciplined classroom. In the middle of the twentieth century, Josef Stalin scornfully asked how many divisions the Pope had, but four decades later, the Papacy was still intact while Stalin’s empire had collapsed.
In today’s world, the distribution of power varies with the context. It is
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, and China as the major players, and others gaining in importance.
The bottom chessboard is the realm of cross-border transactions that occur outside of government control. It includes diverse non-state actors, such as bankers electronically transferring sums larger than most national budgets, and, at the other extreme, terrorists transferring weapons or hackers threatening cyber-security. It also includes new challenges like pandemics and climate change.
On this bottom board, power is widely dispersed, and it makes no sense to speak of unipolarity, multipolarity, hegemony, or any other cliché. Even in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the giddy pace of technological change is likely to continue to drive globalization and transnational challenges.
The problem for American power in the twenty-first century is that there are more and more things outside the control of even the most powerful state. Although the US does well on military measures, there is much going on that those measures fail to capture.
Under the influence of the information revolution and globalization, world politics is changing in a way that prevents America from achieving all its international goals acting alone. For example, international financial stability is vital to Americans’ prosperity, but the US needs the cooperation of others to ensure it. Global climate change, too, will affect Americans’ quality of life, but the US cannot manage the problem alone.
In a world where borders are more porous than ever to everything from drugs to infectious diseases to terrorism, America must help build international coalitions and institutions to address shared threats and challenges. In this sense, power becomes a positive sum game.
It is not enough to think in terms of power over others. One must
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the most powerful country cannot achieve its aims without the help of others.
Scenario 1 is Warming
Ignore warming critics – action is key, the science is indisputable
Pittock 10—led the Climate Impact Group in CSIRO until his retirement in 1999. He contributed to or was the lead author of all four major reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He was awarded a Public Service Medal in 1999 and is CSIRO Honorary Fellow. (Barrie, Climate Change: The Science, Impacts, and Solutions, 2010, pg. 240)
Is the science credible?
As noted in Chapters 4 and 5, there are many uncertainties in relation to
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and eventually reverse the increase in greenhouse gase/s in the atmosphere.
These conclusions are hotly contested by a relatively small number of contrarians, discussed in
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. Too often contrarians repeat old arguments that have already been thoroughly discredited.
Warming risks extinction
Tickell 08 (Oliver, Climate Researcher, The Gaurdian, “On a planet 4C hotter, all we can prepare for is extinction”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/11/climatechange)
We need to get prepared for four degrees of global warming, Bob Watson told
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warming caused by human emissions could propel us towards a similar hothouse Earth.
Scenario 2 is Economy
Econ Decline causes nuclear war
Cesare Merlini 11, nonresident senior fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe and chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Italian Institute for International Affairs, May 2011, “A Post-Secular World?”, Survival, Vol. 53, No. 2
Two neatly opposed scenarios for the future of the world order illustrate the range of
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theocratic absolutes, competing or converging with secular absolutes such as unbridled nationalism.
1AC — Terrorism Advantage
Contention Two: Terrorism
First, enforcing the embargo diverts attention and resources from urgent counter-terrorism priorities including Iran.
Johnson et al. 10 — Andy Johnson, Director of the National Security Program at Third Way—a public policy think tank, former Staff Director of the Senate Intelligence Committee, et al., with Kyle Spector, Policy Advisor in the National Security Program at Third Way, and Kristina Lilac, Policy Advisor in the National Security Program at Third Way, 2010 (“End the Embargo of Cuba,” Memorandum issued by Third Way—a public policy think tank, September 16th, Available Online at http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdf, Accessed 07-20-2013)
Keeping the embargo in place requires that the US government devote time and resources to
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position to fight terrorist organizations by freeing up resources currently enforcing the embargo.
For example, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which
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to respond to the current threats posed by rogue states and terrorist networks.
Second, Cuba’s inclusion on the Terror List independently undermines U.S. anti-terrorism credibility.
Kayyem 13 — Juliette Kayyem, Lecturer in Public Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy, Columnist for the Boston Globe, former Assistant Secretary for Intergovernmental Affairs in the United States Department of Homeland Security, holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School, 2013 (“Diluting the terror watch lists,” Boston Globe, April 29th, Available Online at http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/04/28/making-terror-lists-matter-cuba-not-state-sponsor-terrorism/X2NW0rfYm5A2eJT5VZEuHI/story.html, Accessed 05-14-2013)
This week, another terrorism watch list will be announced, known as the state
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state sponsor list. It is time to take our terror designations seriously.
The state sponsor list is not just name-calling, though there is an element of shaming in the public condemnation. Countries are subject to strict sanctions, including a ban on arms-related sales, controls over commercial exports, and prohibitions of economic assistance.
Cuba seems to be on the list because, as previous State Department assessments have determined, it supports revolutionary movements in Latin America and gives direct support in terms of training and arms to “guerrilla groups” and, note the turn of phrase here, their “terrorist operations.” Cuba’s support includes safe haven to members of Columbia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces, known as FARC, which has waged an insurgency there but is now engaged in peace negotiations.
None of this has to do with the United States and its direct safety and security. Sure, the FARC and other guerrilla groups have destabilized the region, but that has nothing to do with terrorist threats to the United States.
The state sponsor list is no longer about terrorism. Pakistan, for example, is not on it. Domestic politics, not terror, explain Cuba’s status as our neighborly pariah. The continuing isolation of Cuba is inexplicable in modern times.
It is no longer legitimate to simply claim that the electoral map — with a powerful anti-Castro lobby based in Florida — is a sufficient explanation, as if only the politically naive would think otherwise. Even if such blatantly political justifications were valid, the Cuban-American community is actually quite divided about overtures to a nation whose progress and fiscal security can benefit the entire region.
The Boston Globe’s Bryan Bender reported this year that Secretary of State John Kerry was reviewing the policy, hoping to thaw relations with Cuba and make the terrorist state sponsor list be about terrorism. It’s not clear if Kerry’s views will prevail.
Today, however, the necessity to remove Cuba from the list is immediate.
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Boston case, can be as damaging as an under-inclusive one.
Third, Iran-sponsored terrorism is an urgent threat — large-scale attacks against Israel and the U.S. are likely.
Jenkins 12 — Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Adviser to the President of the RAND Corporation, formerly served as chair of the Political Science Department at RAND, former member of the National Commission on Terrorism, holds an M.A. in History from the University of California-Los Angeles, 2012 (“An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: A Resurgence of Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism,” RAND Corporation — Excerpt from Congressional Testimony, July 23rd, Available Online at http://www.rand.org/blog/2012/07/an-assessment-of-the-current-terrorist-threat-a-resurgence.html, Accessed 07-20-2013)
Jihadists are not the only terrorist concern. Growing tensions with Iran could result in an escalation of Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks on American targets abroad or in the United States, as recent events attest. In February 2012, Iranian operatives were linked to terrorist plots or attempts targeting Israeli diplomats in India, Georgia, and Thailand.
In March, authorities in Azerbaijan arrested 22 Azerbaijani citizens who had been hired and trained by Iran to carry out terrorist attacks on the American and Israeli embassies, as well as Western companies. This was third set of arrests of Iranian-trained agents in Azerbaijan since the beginning of the year.
In July, Kenyan authorities reportedly uncovered another Iranian plot to attack Israeli, British, American, or Saudi targets—Iran's principal foes—in Mombasa.
Finally, in October 2011, U.S. authorities uncovered an Iranian plot to assassinate the ambassador of Saudi Arabia in Washington. Killing a Saudi diplomat on American soil in an attack that could also have killed American citizens would have enormous consequences.
The United States must recalibrate Tehran's willingness to take risks.
Several factors may explain this apparent recklessness. Radical elements may have acquired greater influence among Iran's ruling clerics.
Iran may feel obliged to retaliate for what it sees as Israeli and American efforts
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the Islamic Republic, they may reckon that they have little to lose.
The future threat posed by Iranian-sponsored terrorism will be contingent upon Iran's calculations of risk. The current shadow war could escalate further if Iran thinks military attack by either Israel or the United States is inevitable and imminent or, obviously, if hostilities begin.
Under such circumstances, Iran could launch attacks on U.S. military and civilian targets in the region, including oil facilities and shipping. It could also attempt to carry out a strategic strike (a 9/11-scale attack) or something greater on U.S. soil. And it could rely on its own operatives, try to activate Hezbollah's international networks, or conceivably assist other groups, including al Qaeda, to escalate their terrorist campaigns.
Hezbollah has criminal networks in the United States, primarily engaged in fraud and smuggling, which remit a portion of their proceeds to the organization and possibly could be converted into terrorist cells.
Fourth, these attacks will be effective and use weapons of mass destruction.
Walker and Golestani 9 — Justin Walker, Intelligence Analyst at the Urban Warfare Analysis Center, and Leila Golestani, Intelligence Analyst at the Urban Warfare Analysis Center, 2009 (“Threat Analysis: Hamas and Hezbollah Sleeper Cells in the United States,” Report Prepared by the Urban Warfare Analysis Center, March 18th, Available Online at http://www.scribd.com/doc/76745623/Threat-Analysis-Hamas-and-Hezbollah-Sleeper-Cells-in-the-United-States-Urban-Warfare-Analysis-Center, Accessed 07-20-2013, p. 19)
The Threat of Innovative Attacks
An innovative attack is one that deviates from an organization’s past behavior. Hezbollah has established itself as a creative, innovative force in modern terrorism and irregular warfare. If Hezbollah was to attack the U.S. homeland, it is likely it would act based on a well-conceived plan that meets its strategic goals. It is unlikely that Hezbollah would perform an attack in America without a strong probability of success; a surprise attack fits that agenda.
• Likewise, Hezbollah poses the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) because of its Iranian connection. Hamas is also linked to Iran, but that relationship is not as deeply-rooted as Hezbollah-Iran ties. Iran would likely trust Hezbollah to perform a WMD attack over Hamas.
Fifth, nuclear terrorism is an existential threat — don’t underestimate the probability.
Saga 8 — Saga Foundation—a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization dedicated to raising awareness and creating models for action to increase nuclear safety and security, 2008 (“Nuclear Terrorism: Local Effects, Global Consequences,” White Paper — Saga Foundation, July, Available Online at http://www.sagafoundation.org/SagaFoundationWhitePaperSAGAMARK7282008.pdf, Accessed 07-20-2013, p. 1-2)
Nuclear terrorism represents the most serious existential threat to the security of the United States
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– a threat that could profoundly and permanently change our way of life.
The basic features of a nuclear terrorist attack are so self-evident that very
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basic understanding of the widespread impact of an attack in a single location.
Sixth, the plan solves — it sends an immediate signal that boosts counterterrorism credibility.
Kayyem 13 — Juliette Kayyem, Lecturer in Public Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Pacific Council on International Policy, Columnist for the Boston Globe, former Assistant Secretary for Intergovernmental Affairs in the United States Department of Homeland Security, holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School, 2013 (“Diluting the terror watch lists,” Boston Globe, April 29th, Available Online at http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/04/28/making-terror-lists-matter-cuba-not-state-sponsor-terrorism/X2NW0rfYm5A2eJT5VZEuHI/story.html, Accessed 05-14-2013)
The Obama administration can make a powerful symbolic statement about Cuba and begin a slow
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term that it matters little to the countries that we hope to isolate.
Cuba is a lot of things, but it is not a direct national security challenge to the United States or its citizens. If Cuba remains on that exclusive list this week, we will do more damage to ourselves than any Castro brother ever did.
1AC--Instability
Castro’s reforms will inevitably fail – that triggers economic and social collapse
Morales 8-31-13 (Ermilio, He holds a B.S. in Computer Science from the José Antonio Echevarría Higher Polytechnic Institute in Havana, and a Masters in Marketing from the University of Havana. He also earned an MBA from the Higher School of Marketing in Madrid, Spain. As a high-ranking professional in Cuba, he worked for more than 10 years in marketing research, and authored or co-authored more than 50 different government marketing studies of products and services in the health-care field, tourism, cell phones, retailing, medical equipment, tourism, and investment strategies. He provided technical service for the Cuban government in a variety of binational projects in South Africa, Argentina and Canada, “Cuban reforms: the ultimate utopia?” August 23rd, 2013, http://thehavanaconsultinggroups.com/index.php?option=com_contentandview=articleandid=3483Acuban-reforms-the-ultimate-utopiaandcatid=473Aeconomyandlang=en)//moxley
The reforms that began under Raúl Castro's government, despite having the greatest reach since
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as architects, engineers and programmers-- are not included in these reforms.
Normalization of relations is inevitable – only an immediate and complete rollback of the embargo can ensure successful reform and prevent Cuban collapse
Timothy Ashby, Senior Research Fellow at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 3/29/13
(PRESERVING STABILITY IN CUBA AFTER NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES – THE IMPORTANCE OF TRADING WITH STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, www.coha.org/preserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby/)
Cuba under Raúl Castro has entered a new period of economic, social, and
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-way trade must include both Cuba’s private sector as well as SOEs.
Cuban instability results in Caribbean instability, terrorism, democratic backsliding, and distracts the US from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucus, and North Korea
Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, “CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?” 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?
Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions
Bryan 1 (Anthony T., Director of the Caribbean Program – North/South Center, and Stephen E. Flynn, Senior Fellow – Council on Foreign Relations, “Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation”, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the
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else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.
LNG tanker explosions cause catastrophic damage – outweighs nuclear war
Lovin 1 (Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President – National Capitalism and Co-Founder – Rocky Mountain Institute, “Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security”, http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto
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of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.
Bioterror causes extinction
Mhyrvold ‘13 Nathan, Began college at age 14, BS and Masters from UCLA, Masters and PhD, Princeton “Strategic Terrorism: A Call to Action,” Working Draft, The Lawfare Research Paper Series Research paper NO . 2 – 2013
As horrible as this would be, such a pandemic is by no means the
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be available to anybody with a solid background in biology, terrorists included.
Independently causes US retaliation
Lt Col Henry W Conley 3 (Chief of the Systems Analysis Branch, Directorate of Requirements, Headquarters Air Combat Command (ACC), Langley AFB, Virginia, http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj03/spr03/conley.html)
The number of American casualties suffered due to a WMD attack may well be the
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would be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made.”
African conflicts cause great power war
Glick 7 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=56andcategoryid=56andsubcategoryid=90andnewsid=11568)
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,
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waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.
Caucasus conflict goes nuclear
Joshua Kucera, 12/28/2011. Freelance journalist specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. “Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?” EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64765.
And in Komsomolskaya Pravda, Mikhail Barabanov of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and Moscow Defense Brief discusses a recent claim by Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov that the chance of Russia getting involved in a war have recently increased. (Translation by Johnson's Russia List):
Major Western countries and first and foremost the United States might intervene in conflicts on
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Armed Forces. Things might escalate into a nuclear exchange, you know.
1AC — Plan
The United States federal government should establish a policy of constructive engagement toward the Republic of Cuba by lifting the economic embargo and removing the Republic of Cuba from the State Department’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
1AC — Solvency
First, current U.S. policy toward Cuba has failed — engagement is needed.
Huddleston and Pascual 10 — Vicki Huddleston, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution and
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, Published by Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 9780815704324, p. 1)
If one compares outcomes to stated objectives, U.S. policy toward Cuba
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international arena. A new policy of engagement toward Cuba is long overdue.
Second, now is the key time for constructive engagement — the plan establishes a new paradigm for U.S.-Cuba relations.
Piccone 13 — Ted Piccone, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director for Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, served eight years as a senior foreign policy advisor in the Clinton Administration, holds a J.D. from Columbia University, 2013 (“Time to Bet on Cuba,” The Hill, March 18th, Available Online at http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/03/18-cuba-piccone, Accessed 05-20-2013)
Cuba’s efforts to “update” its socialist system through a series of economic reforms just got more complicated. The death of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, its principal benefactor, could seriously disrupt what is already a precarious process of maintaining top-down political control while liberalizing elements of the economy. Raúl Castro’s announcement that he will step down in five years and the emergence of younger leaders born after the 1959 revolution add further uncertainty to the island’s future.
These new circumstances offer President Obama a rare opportunity to turn the page of history from an outdated Cold War approach to Cuba to a new era of constructive engagement. In his second term in office, he should place a big bet by investing political capital in defrosting relations, an approach that will advance U.S. interests in a stable, prosperous and democratic Cuba.
Under Castro, the Cuban government has undertaken important reforms to modernize and liberalize the
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. The reforms also offer new opportunities for U.S. engagement.
Castro’s loosening of the apron strings extends beyond the economy. In January, the
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evidence that the Castro generation is looking forward to securing a viable legacy.
The U.S. approach to Cuba has likewise undergone important changes since Obama took office. Since the expansion of travel and remittances in 2009, hundreds of thousands of the 1.8 million Cuban Americans living in the United States have sent more than $2 billion to relatives there, providing important fuel to the burgeoning private sector and empowering citizens to be less dependent on the Cuban state.
Much more, however, could be done. In his second term, Obama has a wealth of policy options available to him through executive authority that would reframe U.S. support for the Cuban people and advance U.S. national interests.
In his second term, the president can (and should):
• Appoint a special envoy to open a discrete dialogue with Havana without preconditions to discuss such issues as migration, travel, counterterrorism and counternarcotics, energy and the environment, and trade and investment. Such talks could result in provisions that strengthen border security, protect Florida from oil spills, break down the walls of communication that prevent our diplomats from traveling outside Havana and help U.S. businesses export more goods, and thereby create jobs.
• Authorize financial and technical assistance to support burgeoning small businesses and permit trade in goods and services with certified independent entrepreneurs.
• Expand the list of exports licensed for sale to Cuba, including school and art supplies, water and food preparation systems and telecommunications equipment.
• Grant general licenses for journalists, researchers, humanitarian organizations and others to facilitate people-to-people exchanges.
• Remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, where it does not belong, allowing a greater share of U.S.-sourced components and services in products that enter Cuban commerce.
This list is not exhaustive; the president can take any number of unilateral steps
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the spirit of the congressional mandate to encourage a free and prosperous Cuba.
The trend toward reform in Cuba is evident and suggests that an inflection point is
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and extend that outstretched hand he so eloquently promised just four years ago.
Unconditional engagement is key — the U.S. should act regardless of Cuba’s response.
Huddleston and Pascual 10 — Vicki Huddleston, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution and
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, Published by Brookings Institution Press, ISBN 9780815704324, p. 10)
This book’s recommendation of a proactive, unilateral policy is predicated on an assessment that
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without making itself hostage to Cuban resistance to U.S. benchmarks.
Only full removal of the economic embargo solves – partial or conditioned removal is worse than the status quo.
Gorrell 05 Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army War College Lieutenant Colonel Tim Gorrell, Cuba: The Next Unanticipated Anticipated Strategic Crisis?, Strategy Research Project, 18 March 2005, U.S. Army War College, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074
RETAIN SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA, BUT ENFORCE THEM IN VARYING DEGREES DEPENDING ON THE POLITICAL
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have to lose by attempting a bold shift in its policy toward Cuba?
Prior questions fail and paralyze politics
Owen 2 David Owen, Reader of Political Theory at the Univ. of Southampton, Millennium Vol 31 No 3 2002 p. 655-7
Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘a
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the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.