Tournament: Johns Creek | Round: 4 | Opponent: Northview JK | Judge: Andrew Lockwood
Stability Advantage

Cuba’s current reforms are slow, contradictory, and insufficient—the plan is key

Shifter et al 10/15 – Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American
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Economy, 10/15/13, Latin America Adviser, pdf)
*This card is from pages 1,3, and 4 of the pdf.  Page two contains a wholly different article.  "Are Raúl Castro’s Reforms Helping Cuba’s Economy?" is published on pages 1, 3 and 4 of the PDF.  Our evidence is the entirety of the article.  We will provide you the PDF if you are curious*
In late September, Cuba’s government¶ announced the legalization¶ of 18 new categories
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U.S.-Cuba relations¶ during the presidency of Barack Obama."

Now is key – sustainable reforms are slipping away

Lopez-Levy 4-10-13 (Arturo López-Levy is a PhD candidate at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, "Getting Ready for Post-Castro Cuba", April 4^th, 2013, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/getting-ready-post-castro-cuba-8316?page=1-http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/getting-ready-post-castro-cuba-8316?page=1)//moxley
Challenges for Cuban Leaders If Cuba implements the type of mixed economy proposed by the
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the issue by using his prerogative as a diplomat-in-chief.

2 internal links

First is financing Only the plan allows for effectiveness of Cuban reforms

Piccone 13 (Joseph, Brookings Institute Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy, Opening to Havana, 1/17/13, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havana)
Under Raul Castro, the Cuban government has continued to undertake a number of important
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Cuban government to engage constructively alongside an effort to empower the Cuban people.

Second is leverage the unconditional offer of normal trade relations boosts U.S soft power in the region and fosters a stable transition

Koenig, 10 – US Army Colonel, paper submitted for a Masters in Strategic Studies at the US Army War College (Lance, "Time for a New Cuba Policy" http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA518130)
The option with the greatest possibility of success and reward for the United States is
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guides her onto a path that will benefit the nations of the Americas. 

Its reverse causal

Dickerson 10 – Lieutenant Colonel Sergio M. Dickerson, 2010, "United States Security Strategy Towards Cuba," Strategy Research Project, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U226doc=GetTRDoc.pdf26AD=ADA518053-http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U226doc=GetTRDoc.pdf26AD=ADA518053
While economic pressure has failed to bring about government change, it could trigger a
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interests, conditions will not exist for real change in U.S. 

That’s key to prevent Cuban collapse

Morris ’11 (Emily, London Metropolitan University UK,  FORECASTING CUBA’S ECONOMY: 2, 5, AND 20 YEARS, Presented at the international symposium "Cuba Futures: Past and Present," organized by The Cuba Project Bildner Center for Western Hemisphere Studies at The Graduate Center/CUNY, http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/cuba/cubaforecasting.pdf-http://web.gc.cuny.edu/dept/bildn/cuba/cubaforecasting.pdf)

Risks in the medium term Five years is a very long time in politics,
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exports or removal of restrictions on US and multilateral financial flows to Cuba.

Cuban instability results in terrorism, refugee crises, and distracts the US from North Korea

Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, "CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?" 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

First Korean instability causes nuclear war

Chol. 11’. Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il’s Strategy for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s Academy of Social Sciences ~8/20/11, "Dangerous games,"www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MH20Dg01.html~MR
The divided and heavily armed Korean Peninsula remains the most inflammable global flashpoint, with
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each spewing as much radioactive fallout as 150-180 H-bombs.

Second Refugee crises divert Coast Guard resources—-they gut mission effectiveness

Stock 1 – Margaret D. Stock, Associate Professor, Department of Social Sciences, United States Military Academy, West Point, New York and Lieutenant Colonel, Military Police Corps, United States Army Reserve. 2001, "National Security and Immigration Policy: Reclaiming Terms, Measuring Success, and Setting Priorities" http://www.aclu.org/files/fbimappingfoia/20111110/ACLURM002826.pdf
7 Fed. Reg. 68924 (Nov. 13, 2002) ("A
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diverting valuable Coast Guard and DOJ resources from counterterrorism and homeland security responsibilities.")

Coast Guard capabilities are key to naval power projection

Decker 1 – Scott Decker, LT CMNDER USCG, Feb 2001, The coast guard is capable of conducting and leading expeditionary harbor defense/port security and Harbor approach defense operations, http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA389731
.. .From the Sea touches on this, identifying sealift as a key enabler
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S power projection capabilities, and freeing up additional combatants for offensive use.

Naval power independently solves great power war

Conway et al. 7 – James T., General, U.S. Marine Corps, Gary Roughead, Admiral, U.S. Navy, Thad W. Allen, Admiral, U.S. Coast Guard, "A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower," October, http://www.navy.mil/maritime/MaritimeStrategy.pdf
No other disruption is as potentially disastrous to global stability as war among major powers
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and sustain forces, sea control and power projection enable extended campaigns ashore.

Third Terrorists will have access to Cuban Bioweapons

Christopher Dodd, Former US Senator, 6/5/02
(CUBA’S PURSUIT OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: FACT OR FICTION? HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON WESTERN HEMISPHERE, PEACE CORPS AND NARCOTICS, www.fas.org/nuke/guide/cuba/sfrc060502.pdf)
The well-respected former Deputy Director of Biopreparat, Ken Alibek, the Soviet
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as a direct threat to our allies or to our own national security.

Extinction

Anders Sandberg 8, is a James Martin Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University; Jason G. Matheny, PhD candidate in Health Policy and Management at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and special consultant to the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center; Milan M. ?irkovi?, senior research associate at the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and assistant professor of physics at the University of Novi Sad in Serbia and Montenegro, 9/8/8, "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction-http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-risk-of-human-extinction
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones.
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may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore’s Law.

Fourth African conflicts cause great power war

Glick 7 (Caroline – senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy, Condi’s African holiday, p. http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/home.aspx?sid=5626categoryid=5626subcategoryid=9026newsid=11568)
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,
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waters of the Nile River which flows through all countries of the region.

Fifth Caucasus conflict goes nuclear

Joshua Kucera, 12/28/2011. Freelance journalist specializing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. "Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?" EurasiaNet, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64765.
And in Komsomolskaya Pravda, Mikhail Barabanov of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and Moscow Defense Brief  discusses a recent claim by Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov that the chance of Russia getting involved in a war have recently increased. (Translation by Johnson’s Russia List):
Major Western countries and first and foremost the United States might intervene in conflicts on
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Armed Forces. Things might escalate into a nuclear exchange, you know.
Ag Advantage

Cuban agro ecology is at risk – it’s the only model for environmental sustainability

M. Dawn King, Professor of Environmental Studies at Brown, 3/21/12
(Cuban Sustainability: The Effects of Economic Isolation on Agriculture and Energy, wpsa.research.pdx.edu/meet/2012/kingmdawn.pdf)
Cuba needed an alternative agricultural model when foreign oil imports were cut off significantly at
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goal of sustainable development to increase short-term capital and energy needs.

The U.S ensures global transition to the Cuban model

WFP 10 ~World Food Prize, "Chicago Council Wins Grant to Expand Global Agricultural Development Initiative," Dec 23, 2010, pg. http://www.worldfoodprize.org/index.cfm?nodeID=2466726action=display26newsID=11003~~
A number of policy developments indicate that the United States is beginning to recognize the
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U.S. policy toward supporting agriculture as a poverty alleviation tool."

And only the Cuban model solves – US adoption allows for a shift to sustainable urban agriculture worldwide

Peters 10  (Kathryn A., , LL.M, University of Arkansas School of Law, Graduate Program in Agricultural and Food Law; J.D. 2010, University of Oregon School of Law, "Creating a Sustainable Urban Agriculture Revolution ", 2010, http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf-http://law.uoregon.edu/org/jell/docs/251/peters.pdf)//moxley
In the years prior to 1990, Cuba was reliant upon industrial agriculture and foreign
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information and resources to foster small-scale, sustainable urban agriculture.177

Access to the US market is key to the continued viability of Cuban organics

William Kost, Economist at the US Department of Agriculture, 2004 (CUBAN AGRICULTURE: TO BE OR NOT TO BE ORGANIC?, http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume14/pdfs/kost.pdf-http://www.ascecuba.org/publications/proceedings/volume14/pdfs/kost.pdf)
For the U.S. organic market, in addition to a lifting of
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domestic consumption in an environment where other production approaches are just not available.

Industrial ag is the root cause of warming through deforestation and emissions

Cummins 10 (Ronnie, founder and Director of the Organic Consumers Association (OCA), a non-profit, U.S. based network of 850,000 consumers, dedicated to safeguarding organic standards and promoting a healthy, just, and sustainable system of agriculture and commerce. The OCA’s primary strategy is to work on national and global campaigns promoting health, justice, and sustainability that integrate public education, marketplace pressure, media work, litigation, and grassroots lobbying. Cummins is also editor of OCA’s website www.organicconsumers.org (30,000 visitors a day) and newsletters, Organic Bytes (270,000 subscribers), and Organic View, he has served as director of US and international efforts such as the Pure Food Campaign, and the Global Days of Action Against GMOs. From 1992-98 Cummins served as a campaign director for the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington, D.C, October 10^th, 2010, "Industrial Agriculture and Human Survival: The Road Beyond 10/10/10", http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/10/07-9-http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/10/07-9)//moxley
Industrial Food and Farming: A Deadly Root of Global Warming Although transportation, industry
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make the transition to an organic and green economy or we will perish.

Warming’s real and anthropogenic—-reject negative evidence

Prothero 12 ~Donald R. Prothero, Professor of Geology at Occidental College and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of Technology, 3-1-2012, "How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused," Skeptic, 17.2, EBSCO~
How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There
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change when it threatens their survival. Neither can we as a society.

Reducing emissions now is critical to prevent catastrophic warming

Nuccitelli 12 – Dana, environmental scientist at a private environmental consulting firm in Sacramento and has a Bachelor’s Degree in astrophysics from the University of California at Berkeley, and a Master’s Degree in physics from the University of California at Davis, 2012, "Realistically What Might The Future Climate Look Like?", http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/09/01/784931/realistically-what-might-the-future-climate-look-like/
This is Why Reducing Emissions is Critical¶ We’re not yet committed to surpassing 2
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Earth than today’s, but we still can and must limit the damage.

Extinction

Flournoy 12 – Dan Flournoy, PhD and MA from the University of Texas, Former Dean of the University College at Ohio University, Former Associate Dean at State University of New York and Case Institute of Technology, Project Manager for University/Industry Experiments for the NASA ACTS Satellite, Currently Professor of Telecommunications at Scripps College of Communications @ Ohio University, January 2012, "Solar Power Satellites," Springer Briefs in Space Development
In the Online Journal of Space Communication , Dr. Feng Hsu, a NASA
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our Sun" (Hsu 2010 ) (Fig . 2.1 ).
Plan 

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its economic engagement towards the republic of Cuba

Drilling Advantage

Contention One is Oil Spills:

Cuban oil drilling inevitable. The embargo only locks-out US safety experts.

*a. drilling inevitable - an energy-poor Cuba is exploring its reserves to increase its energy independence.
b. huge safety risk – the rigs go deeper than the Deepwater Horizon – the embargo locks out critical industry expertise
LaGesse ’12 
David LaGesse¶ reporter, with recent articles that have appeared in National Geographic, Money, and most frequently in U.S. News 26 World Report – National Geographic News – November 19, 2012 – internally quoting Jorge Piñon, a former president of Amoco Oil Latin America (now part of BP) and an expert on Cuba’s energy sector who is now a research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin.– http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/11/121119-cuba-oil-quest/
But an energy-poor Cuba also has its risks. One of the chief
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a major find. But that doesn’t mean Cuba will give up trying.

Embargo fails and stops pro-active approach to spills.

*a. Embargo fails – Vietnam, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Norway will inevitably drill off Cuba – the embargo prevents US firms from providing the necessary expertise and high-quality equipment
b. Risk of spills – sanctions prevent drilling companies from acquiring necessary equipment – that prevents a proactive approach
Helman ’11. Forbes Staff: Southwest Bureau covering Houston, the US energy capital ~12/12/11, "U.S. Should Drop Cuba Embargo For Oil Exploration," Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/12/12/u-s-should-drop-cuba-embargo-for-oil-exploration/-http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2011/12/12/u-s-should-drop-cuba-embargo-for-oil-exploration/~~MR

In a few months Spanish oil company Repsol will start drilling for oil off the
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its people and scrounge for spare parts from the rest of the world.

Absent pro-active steps, accidents are inevitable. US experts key.

*Prevention efforts fail – a disaster is inevitable because drilling firms don’t have a protocol or proactive approach for a spill. Sanctions prevent the US from using its expertise, protocol, and technology.
Bolstad. ’12. Erika Bolstad is a reporter who covers Washington for the Anchorage Daily News, the Idaho Statesman and McClatchy Newspapers. This evidence internally quotes Lee Hunt, the former president of the International Association of Drilling Contractors. Hunt, in this instance, is arguably not biased in favor of drilling, as he is speaking to safety and clean-up regimes and he is speaking before a liberal think-tank in favor of human rights ~5/10/2012, McClatchy Newspapers, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/05/10/148433/cuba-embargo-could-threaten-oil.html~~23.UaoUWpyADq0~~

The 50-year-old U.S. embargo of Cuba is getting
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in advance the kind of technologies that would be required," Reilly said.

Independently, hurricanes cause spills. Quick reaction also needed.

*Quick reaction is critical – a. BP spill proves US needs to contain damage and begin cleanup operations
b. Hurricane activity makes an early, critical response more significant
Status quo fails – Treasury licenses are reactive and take 24-48 to issue; absent that, relief from Brazil would take 30-50 days
Stephens ’11. Sarah Stephens – Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas ~"As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest," http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf~~MR-http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf5dMR

The BP disaster highlights the needs for a timely response to spills, the¶
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needs to be done—and can be done—under current law.

Aff boosts reaction time. US Experts solve best.

*Status quo presents a dangerous scenario – a disastrous oil spill is inevitable – only the plan lifts devastating sanctions that prevent a proactive response – that’s key to a quick reaction.
Zakaria ’11
Fareed Rafiq Zakaria is a journalist and author. From 2000 to 2010, he was a columnist for Newsweek and editor of Newsweek International. In 2010 he became editor-at-large of Time. He is the host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, Global Public Square. He is also a frequent commentator and author about issues related to international relations, trade, and American foreign policy – "Why our Cuba embargo could lead to another Gulf oil disaster" – CNN: Global Public Square Blogs – 9-19-11 – http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/19/why-our-cuba-policy-could-lead-to-another-gulf-oil-spill/

Can you remember what explosive crisis America and the world was fixated on last summer
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Cuban people, keep them impoverished and cut them off from the world.

Spill spreads and kills ecosystems. That’s key to regional biodiversity.

*Spill escalates – a. lack of containment equipment – the embargo prevents Cuba from accessing critical response technology
b. unique currents – their defense doesn’t apply because the currents off Cuba’s shore allows a spill to rapidly spread
c. hotspot – Cuban waters are critical to global biodiversity – an oil spill would cause environmental devastation
Almeida ’12. Rob Almeida is Partner/CMO at gCaptain. He graduated from the US Naval Academy in 1999 with a B.S in Naval Architecture and spent 6.5 years on active duty as a Surface Warfare Officer. He worked for a year as a Roughneck/Rig Manager trainee on board the drillship Discoverer Americas. May 18th – http://gcaptain.com/drilling-cuba-embargo-badly/

In short however, Cuba’s access to containment systems, offshore technology, and spill
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oil spill could inflict unprecedented environmental devastation if not planned for in advance.

Cuban ocean currents spread spill very fast and spills are more destructive because it’s deep water drilling - Their defense doesn’t apply

Mica 12, Chair, Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation,  January 23, 2012, Offshore Drilling in Cuba and the Bahamas: The US Coast Guard’s Oil Spill Readiness and Response Planning, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg72582/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg72582.pdf-http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-112hhrg72582/pdf/CHRG-112hhrg72582.pdfp. 2-3 King TS)

But I was quite surprised to learn that, in fact, that the exploratory
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greater than what we saw with the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf. 

Deep water environments are critical to the overall health of the ocean

Hull 11 (Eric V. Hull, Attorney, 2011, "Crude Injustice in the Gulf" UCLA Journal of Environmental Law and Policy, 29 UCLA J. Envtl. L. 26 Pol’y 1, p. 11 King TS)

Deepwater environments are critically important to the healthy functioning of the world’s oceans. Historically
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high seas are among the most critical ocean issues and environmental challenges today." 

Ocean biodiversity is key to survival

Craig. 3’. Robin Kundis Craig is Attorneys’ Title Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Environmental Programs at Florida State University. ~Winter 2003, "ARTICLE: Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii," McGeorge Law Review~

Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they
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its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world.

Cuba’s marine areas are the foundation of global marine biological diversity and sustain ecosystems world-wide – it’s a hotspot

Whittle. 12’. Dan Whittle is EDF’s Cuba Program Director for the Oceans Program and is featured on CenterforDemocracyInAmerica.org ~9/11/2012, "Bridging the Gulf Report: Preparing for Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration in Cuba," http://blogs.edf.org/edfish/2012/09/11/bridging-the-gulf-report-preparing-for-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-cuba/-http://blogs.edf.org/edfish/2012/09/11/bridging-the-gulf-report-preparing-for-offshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-cuba/~~MR

The United States has a vested interest in the health of Cuba’s natural environment for
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notion that environmental cooperation between the United States and Cuba is an imperative.

Biodiversity in specific hotspots checks extinction. Key to ag, medicine, and ecosystems

*Biodiversity key – a) disease – species diversity is key to discovering cures for dangerous pathogens
b) ag – varied species provide genes to improve agricultural resilience and sustain our food supply
c)ecosystems – biodiversity in the key hotspots is key to prevent a total collapse of ecosystems
Mittermeier ’11
(et al, Dr. Russell Alan Mittermeier is a primatologist, herpetologist and biological anthropologist. He holds Ph.D. from Harvard in Biological Anthropology and serves as an Adjunct Professor at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. He has conducted fieldwork for over 30 years on three continents and in more than 20 countries in mainly tropical locations. He is the President of Conservation International and he is considered an expert on biological diversity. Mittermeier has formally discovered several monkey species. From Chapter One of the book Biodiversity Hotspots – F.E. Zachos and J.C. Habel (eds.), DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-20992-5_1, ~23 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011. This evidence also internally references Norman Myers, a very famous British environmentalist specialising in biodiversity. available at: http://www.academia.edu/1536096/Global_biodiversity_conservation_the_critical_role_of_hotspots)

Extinction is the gravest consequence of the biodiversity crisis, since it is¶ irreversible
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than 30 of original vegetation remaining" criterion to a genuine hotspot.

Tournament: Wake Forest | Round: 3 | Opponent: Pinecrest | Judge: Stephen Weil

1AC

China Advantage

Contention one is china

The US embargo prevents successful Cuban oil drilling

*current firms operating with dated tech and have to service own operations – embargo prevents tech from being sold or transferred to Cuba
Benjamin-Alvadaro 06 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, and#34;The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,and#34; http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf-http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)
But why has Sherritt succeeded when the perception on the part of many American observers
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a small relatively resource constrained state to pursue this course of energy investment.

Successful drilling allows China to alleviate energy insecurity

Jiang. 06’. – Jianga is the Mactaggart Research Chair of the China Institute at the University of Alberta and senior fellow of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. He was a public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. ~and#34;CHINA’S ENERGY ENGAGEMENT WITH LATIN AMERICA,and#34; Jamestown Foundation, http://uyghuramerican.org/old/articles/408/1/CHINAS-ENERGY-ENGAGEMENT-WITH-LATIN-AMERICA/info@uyghuramerican.org~~MR-http://uyghuramerican.org/old/articles/408/1/CHINAS-ENERGY-ENGAGEMENT-WITH-LATIN-AMERICA/info@uyghuramerican.org5dMR

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is thirsty for energy. From the
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, this was the same year that China became a net oil importer.

Chinese energy insecurity leads to war over oil in the South China Sea, this draws the US in

Sreeraman. ’12. Hemanth Sreeraman is an investor with a special interest in finance and international relations. For his Masters at London School of Economics, his areas of focus were Economic History and International Relations. He writes about geopolitics, with a specific focus on Asia. ~8/22/2012, and#34;(South China) Sea of Problems: A Question of Energy Security,and#34; http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/08/22/south-china-sea-of-problems-a-question-of-energy-security/-http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/08/22/south-china-sea-of-problems-a-question-of-energy-security/~~MR

Apart from the overlapping lines drawn on the map, contours of confrontation are beginning
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is one opportunity of leadership that China should be loath to squander away. 

This specific type of resource war escalates – causing huge death tolls.

*Oil wars escalate – a. peak oil approaching – lack of a sustainable supply makes US oil wars inevitable
b. Causes wars – the US needs resources to maintain security and absent sufficient resources, US attack on China is inevitable
c. Escalates – nuclear war over resources draws in every power because each country depends on resources to succeed
Lendman ’7
(Stephen Lendman is a renowned author and Research Associate of the Center for Research on Globalization (CRG). The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) is an independent research and media organization based in Montreal. The CRG is involved in book publishing, support to humanitarian projects as well as educational outreach activities including the organization of public conferences and lectures. The Centre also acts as a think tank on crucial economic and geopolitical issues. Stephen has written extensively on war and peace, social justice in America and many other national and international issues. Stephen Lendman is a recipient of a 2008 Project Censored Award, University of California at Sonoma – and#34;Resource Wars – Can We Survive Them?and#34; – Global Research, June 06, 2007 – http://www.globalresearch.ca/resource-wars-can-we-survive-them/5892)

With the world’s energy supplies finite, the US heavily dependent on imports, and
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, or at least a big part of it, would have survived.

Increased economic relations with Cuba spill over to broader cooperation with China – influence is not zero sum

Hearn. 09. Hearn is a research fellow at the School of Social and Political Sciences, the University of Sydney. He has conducted research in Cuba and China, and is currently undertaking a study of Chinese engagement with Latin America. He is author of Cuba: Religion, Social Capital, and Development (Duke University Press 2008), China and Latin America: The Social Foundations of a Global Alliance (Duke University Press, forthcoming) and editor of Cultura, Tradición, y Comunidad: Perspectivas sobre el Desarrollo y Participación en Cuba (Imagen Contemporánea and UNESCO Center for Human Development.  ~Dr. Adrian H. , June,and#34;Cuba and China: Lessons and Opportunities for the United States,and#34;Commissioned report for the CubaInfo Series The Cuban Research Institute Florida International University, http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/cuba-china-hearn.pdf~~MR
It is generally acknowledged that the U.S. embargo on Cuba has not
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to be and#34;firm in the right way, and not merely firm.and#34; 

Plan promotes cooperation – ensures China gets oil

Jiang. 06’. – Jianga is the Mactaggart Research Chair of the China Institute at the University of Alberta and senior fellow of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. He was a public policy fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. ~and#34;CHINA’S ENERGY ENGAGEMENT WITH LATIN AMERICA,and#34; Jamestown Foundation, http://uyghuramerican.org/old/articles/408/1/CHINAS-ENERGY-ENGAGEMENT-WITH-LATIN-AMERICA/info@uyghuramerican.org~~MR-http://uyghuramerican.org/old/articles/408/1/CHINAS-ENERGY-ENGAGEMENT-WITH-LATIN-AMERICA/info@uyghuramerican.org5dMR
China’s extensive energy engagement in Latin America during recent years has become a source of
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in mind the importance of maintaining their traditional ties with the United States.

US-Cuban Relations Advantage

Contention two is Relations

US-Cuban oil coop key to check existing US-Latin American tensions.

Benjamin-Alvarado ’10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, and#34;Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation,and#34; a Brookings Publication – obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 3-4

The development of Cuba as an energy partner will not solve America’s energy problems.
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enhance the environment, conserve energy, and provide improved quality of life.and#34;

Now a key time for US-Latin American ties. Permanent collapse coming.

Shifter ’12 
(Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council’s journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. and#34;Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,and#34; April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

If the United States and Latin America do not make the effort now, the
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wellbeing. It is time to seize the moment and overhaul hemispheric relations.

Scenario 1 is Nuclear Terror

Cuba is key to US-Latin American Relations-specifically spills-over to global coop on Nuclear material transfer

Shifter ’12 
(Michael is an Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and writes for the Council’s journal Foreign Affairs. He serves as the President of Inter-American Dialogue. and#34;Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,and#34; April, IAD Policy Report, http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf)

Cuba, too, poses a significant challenge for relations between the United States and
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consultation and collaboration on a new, more effective approach to the problem.

Nuclear terrorism escalates to major nuclear war. Global coop on material transfers is key.

Ayson’10
Robert – Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington – and#34;After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,and#34; Studies in Conflict 26 Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, obtained via InformaWorld

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by
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, is further international cooperation on the control of existing fissile material holdings.

Scenario 2 is Russia

Normalizing relations with Latin America crowds out Russia – specifically Cuba

Blank 09 (Stephen, Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, and#34;Russia in Latin America: Geopolitical Games in the US’s Neighborhood,and#34; pdf)
The only way in which Russian policy truly threatens the US and Latin America is
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reverse those outcomes and demonstrate what liberal democracy in action can truly accomplish.

Russian expansionism in Latin America spurs a new Cold War and proxy conflicts

Walle 12 (Walter, Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, and#34;Russia Turns to the South for Military and Economic Alliances,and#34; http://www.coha.org/russia-turns-to-the-south-for-military-and-economic-alliances/)
Quite clearly, Russia’s interest in Latin America is escalating. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
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alone among Latin American countries in recognizing the independence of the new republics.
?

That causes miscalc

Orozco 08 (Jose, Correspondent for Christian Science Monitor, and#34;Cold war echo: Russian military maneuvers with Venezuela,and#34; http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2008/0912/p01s05-woam.html)
The last time a Russian Navy ship plied the azure waters of the Caribbean for
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as long-range patrol planes for the upcoming joint exercises with Venezuela.

Extinction

Helfand and Pastore 9 ~Ira Helfand, M.D., and John O. Pastore, M.D., are past presidents of Physicians for Social Responsibility. March 31, 2009, and#34;U.S.-Russia nuclear war still a threatand#34;, http://www.projo.com/opinion/contributors/content/CT_pastoreline_03-31-09_EODSCAO_v15.bbdf23.html~~
President Obama and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev are scheduled to Wednesday in London during the
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alert status of nuclear weapons that existed  in 1995 remains in place today.

Plan Text: The United States federal government should remove its restrictions on upstream petroleum cooperation toward the Republic of Cuba.

Venezuela Advantage

Contention three is Venezuela

Cuban oil dependence is unsustainable - Venezuela is going to cut Cuba off from special oil discounts

Keppel. 13’. Reporter for ABC News ~Stephen, 3/06/2013,and#34;What Chávez’s Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S,and#34; ABC News, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-us/story?id=18669003~~MR-http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-means-cuba-venezuela-us/story?id=186690035dMR
Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chávez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in
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Chávez and may not be able to maintain popularity if things get tougher.

Cuba’s economy relies on Venezuelan oil

Benjamin-Alvadaro 10 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, and#34;Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperationand#34
The power and hydrocarbon sectors are inextricably linked, as Cuba produces about 85 percent
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uses; this is consistent with the usage breakdown seen in other countries.

Sudden change from discounted oil causes economic instability in Cuba

Leogrande. 13’. William Leogrande is a professor in the Department of Government, School of Public Affairs at American University in Washington, D.C. ~William, 4/2/2013,and#34;The Danger of Dependence: Cuba’s Foreign Policy After Chavez,and#34; World Poltics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12840/the-danger-of-dependence-cubas-foreign-policy-after-chavez~~MR-http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12840/the-danger-of-dependence-cubas-foreign-policy-after-chavez5dMR

The Dangers of Dependency Cuba has twice experienced the pain of ruptured economic relations with
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part, an effort to reduce Cuba’s vulnerability to an external oil shock.

Cuban collapse causes Latin American instability and terrorism and distracts the US from critical hotspots including Africa, the Caucus, and North Korea

Gorrell 5 (Tim, Lieutenant Colonel, and#34;CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS?and#34; 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)
Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cuba’s
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in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Caucus instability causes nuclear war

Blank 2k – MacArthur Professor of Research @ The Strategic Studies Institute @ US Army War College (Stephen, and#34;U.S. MILITARY ENGAGEMENT WITH TRANSCAUCASIA AND CENTRAL ASIA,and#34; June, http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs/Blank2000.pdf-http://www.bits.de/NRANEU/docs/Blank2000.pdf)
In 1993 Moscow even threatened World War III to deter Turkish intervention on behalf of
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(5) neither has willing proxies capable of settling the situation.74

Korean instability also causes nuclear war

Chol. 11’. Kim Myong Chol is author of a number of books and papers in Korean, Japanese and English on North Korea, including Kim Jong-il’s Strategy for Reunification. He has a PhD from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s Academy of Social Sciences ~8/20/11, and#34;Dangerous games,and#34;www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MH20Dg01.html~MR
The divided and heavily armed Korean Peninsula remains the most inflammable global flashpoint, with
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each spewing as much radioactive fallout as 150-180 H-bombs.

Cuban oil solves dependence on Venezuela—-revenues lead to political reforms that create stability

Pinon. 11’. – Jorge R. Piñón is a visiting research fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Center’s Cuban Research Institute at FIU ~Spring 2011, and#34;Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don’t),and#34; Miami Consortium, casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf~MR

If Cuba’s suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take
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from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.

Only the plan solves - catalyzes investment that allows Cuban oil development

Benjamin-Alvarado 6 (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, Florida International University, PhD, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO, Treasurer of the American Political Science Association, and#34;The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,and#34; http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)
Why is it important to clarify the current status of Cuban energy in the face
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confidence, trust and cooperation in this critical issue area across the region. 

Solvency

Contention four is Solvency

First – Cuba also says and#34;yesand#34;. This spills-into broader coop.

Benjamin-Alvarado ’10
Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, PhD of Political Science, University of Nebraska, 2010, and#34;Cuba’s Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation,and#34; a Brookings Publication – obtained as an ebook through MSU Electronic Resources – page 120

Undoubtedly, after fifty years of enmity, there is a significant lack of trust
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the way to establishing much-needed familiarity and confidence across these communities.